With less than a week to go before this year’s draft, amateur prospect evaluation is cresting. For those interested in really understanding the broad scope of players available this year, there are a few great resources to check out. And there is an update on a draft candidate who will be more closely-watched than any other this summer.
Let’s have a look in at the latest:
- Baseball America has released its top-500 ranking, which includes just about every player of real relevance at this stage (though no doubt we’ll look back in 10 years and wonder how someone eluded mention). You’ll find links there to scouting reports and video.
- ESPN.com’s Keith Law (Insider link) remains bullish on University of Arizona shortstop Kevin Newman, who gets the second spot on his list. Indeed, each of the top four players available, in Law’s view, are shortstops, with high schooler Brendan Rogers at the top and Dansby Swanson (Vanderbilt) and Alex Bregman (LSU) following behind Newman.
- Kiley McDaniel and Fangraphs have introduced a “sortable draft board” that allows you to take in the various forms of assessment (e.g., present & future value, ranking, mock draft prediction, likely pick range). Check it out and work the columns to get a better sense of what’s out there. As with the BA list, you can access more detailed reports and video of many players.
- Brady Aiken and his medical status still remains something of an enigma, McDaniel writes. The unsigned first-overall pick of a year ago is coming off of Tommy John surgery. Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggested yesterday that the Astros had actually found a small tear in Aiken’s elbow, while earlier reports indicated that he had an unusually narrow UCL. As McDaniel notes, others believe that Houston was scared off by structural issues in the elbow. His current draft status will depend in part on just what issues are there, as well as his progress in the UCL replacement. McDaniel says that Aiken’s camp has released medical information, but done so in an unusually constricted way. All said, it’s impossible to get a read on where he’ll land, though his talent is great enough that he’s expected to land a seven-figure bonus regardless.
Jeff Luhnow to planet Earth: “I told you so…”
Earth to Jeff Luhnow: “Nice hatchet job on Nix, Jeffy…”.
How is it a hatchet job? Should they have paid Aikens when he was damaged so they could pay Nix? That would have been stupid.
The Astros shouldn’t have drafted Aiken in the first place. The Astros will probably do worse this year trying to sign 2 top 5 picks and be forced to select guys that are safe signings instead of top talent.
#1. They didn’t have access to medicals until after the draft. #2. There’s no reason they have to play it safe.
There IS a reason to play it safe with the Aiken pick this year. You only get one chance at that pick. If you can’t sign the guy, you don’t get another one next year.
It will be interesting to see if the Astros #2 pick turns out to be better than Aiken and Nix.. It is interesting how Nix is now expected to go in the 1st round..
yeah, but he could already be moving up in a pro system with $600k in the bank. that means one year closer to MLB free agency, in the long run, that was sacrificed. If he would have been decent, even average, as a pro, that’s millions of dollars left on the table that he probably won’t ever see.
Nix is far from MLB ready. There’s no telling if he would have got to the Majors any sooner.
I think it’s a good bet- if he’s going to get to the MLB the Astros of last year are one of the teams that will get him there fastest.
I was wondering which would turn out better the Astros extra pick this year or the guys they were not able to sign.. That question has nothing to do with how much money one of the guys they didn’t sign will make in free agency..
A player with Nix’s talent is very unlikely to ever be a significant contributor to an MLB team. That also means it will be very unlikely that he ever receives a large MLB contract. He was smart by trying to cash in and get his full value now in what will most likely be his only chance to see significant money from baseball.
Nix had the same agent at Aiken. The agent was pissed and poorly advised Nix to NOT sign for the $600k offer due to being pissed that Aiken wasn’t as big of a payday. Imagine it, the agent lost a ton of money on that day. It was in HIS best interest to gamble on his guys getting drafted high again instead of the players best interest to take the money and start playing pro ball.
Nah. Nix had no interest in signing for slot with a commitment to UCLA. He just got in a bad situation where it was possible he wasn’t going to be eligible to play at UCLA. He got a settlement so it’s probably not going to cost him anything other than a year of pro development.
How was signing for $600K the best option for Nix? BA ranks him 37th and MLB ranks him 39th in this draft. The 40th overall pick has a slot value of $1.545mm, so he would have been leaving about $950k on the table, plus his settlement from the Astros. Since it’s very likely he will not succeed at the MLB level, this was very likely the only chance he has to make significant money from baseball and would have been foolish to take an offer that was only worth 1/3 of his value.
That agent is the best in baseball in my opinion. Casey Close got Kershaw his deal, Greinke and Tanaka got $150 M each thanks to Close. Close was Jeter’s agent since ’93, is known around baseball for his professionalism and not negotiating in the media. Nix has solidified his secondary offerings and now projects as a 1st-2nd rounder. Close knew what he was doing with Nix, Aiken will probably lose money but at least he’ll get to play for the local Dodgers. Fingers crossed.