Outside of Chris Davis of the Orioles, Red Sox first baseman Mike Napoli will likely be the most highly sought-after player at the position on next year’s free agent market. But a slow start at the plate has him looking to regain value the rest of the way.
Napoli has hit just .213/.315/.404 in his first 216 plate appearances, well off the .818 OPS mark he carried through his first two seasons in Boston. On the positive side, he has contributed nine home runs and continues to put up typical K:BB numbers (24.5% strikeout rate versus 13.0% walk rate).
Looking behind the slash numbers, there is some cause for concern. Though Napoli carries a .246 BABIP that falls well below his lifetime .308 mark, Fangraphs also credits him with declining hard contact rates and a career-worst 21.5% rate of soft contact. And his line-drive percentage is down to 13.3%, a significant drop from his typical numbers.
While it may be too soon to put much stock in defensive metrics, Napoli has profiled more as a sturdy first baseman than the above-average performer he rated as over the last two seasons. UZR pegs the issue as a decline in his range.
Rob Bradford of WEEI.com examines Napoli’s situation and market standing in an interesting piece today. Napoli himself says he still hopes to stay in Boston, and believes he is in a good place in spite of his dip in productivity. “I swear, until you just said this to me, I hadn’t even thought about it for a while,” he said. “I just feel like everything is going to take care of itself. I feel like I have a lot of good years left. This is the best I’ve felt in a long time health-wise. My sleeping has gotten better. We’ll see. I feel like I could play a long time now.”
Bradford explores the impact of a widening strike zone on Napoli, both in terms of results and his market. Napoli paces the league in the number of pitches seen per plate appearance over the past three years — just shy of 4.5 per — but Bradford says that teams may no longer place quite the premium on that skill that they have in the past.
Napoli himself acknowledged the issue, saying: “if the strike zone is getting bigger that hurts my style of play.” He tells Bradford that he has noticed an impact. “It gets the point where it’s hard for me to think I can take a close pitch,” he said. “Instead I’m swinging at stuff.”
Indeed, the numbers do bear that out to some extent. As Sons of Sam Horn examines in detail, Napoli has seemingly been impacted by a larger zone. And that may be creating broader problems: while his chase rate is flat, and he has a career-high contact rate on pitches in the zone, Napoli’s contact rate on pitches outside the zone has fallen by about ten percentage points from his levels over the past several seasons.
Broader market trends do show some good news for the slugger, however. While he’ll be entering his age-34 season when he hits free agency this fall, only the younger (and, likely, much more costly) Davis presents much of a challenge in terms of first base talent. And there will be plenty of clubs that prefer Napoli’s veteran presence, presumably shorter commitment, and more stable offensive profile to that of Davis.
Napoli looks like a solid bet to remain a viable first baseman, meaning that he won’t be restricted to American League clubs. It’s far too early to play the match-up game, but teams like the Orioles, Rays, Marlins, Brewers, Cardinals, Twins, Padres, Angels, and Mariners all seem like plausible suitors. And a return to the Red Sox cannot be ruled out entirely, particularly given that Hanley Ramirez has rather emphatically rejected the concept of playing first base.
It goes without saying that Napoli’s performance the rest of the way will play an enormous role in determining his standing after the season. As things stand, he seems a borderline qualifying offer candidate, though of course the same up-tick in performance that would make a QO desirable would also increase his appeal. All said, in spite of his rough start, Napoli’s market value probably has not taken much of a hit at this point — particularly given his track record and the fact that Davis has yet to regain his 2013 form — though he has work ahead of him to show that he can still deliver well-above-average offensive production.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Give him 3/33
I would just offer him the QO because if he accepts they have him an extra year at what 12-13 million? Win/win because the guy who was really to replace him was Allen Craig and we all saw how well that turned out.
The QO is around 16MM I believe. It could be even more next offseason.
Still, I would offer him with the hope he accepts. He is good for one more year despite his early struggles.
No on has ever accepted the QO and I doubt Napoli wants to be the first. He just needs to find somewhere that will go two years at a lesser AAV and I think he will.
Not at that salary.
The sox should deal him for ryan howard
Philly Fan!
We’ll pass
Napoli has unfortunately been a sufferer of some bad calls over the outer half of the plate the last few days. Part of the reason is because he is struggling, and umps have a tendency to call close pitches against guys who are struggling, or are rookies, etc. It is certainly a frustrating factor for him I’m sure, but one he is gonna have to deal with for the time being. I’d say he will most definitely get a QO, as Boston wouldn’t mind having him next year in order to evaluate some of their prospects coming through (Devers, etc., though Devers looks further out than that). It also might be the best for Napoli too if he continues to have some struggles offensively.
If he doesn’t revive, I can’t imagine why the Red Sox would offer a QO. He’s not worth that type of money–and the only reason to offer it would be the hope he would get a multi-year deal elsewhere. The QO might just end up being a pillow year to restore value. He’s not young anymore. A signing team would have to worry he could turn into another Carlos Beltran (I wince as I write that…)
I could see them offering it as the options for first next year are limited, and Hanley seems content on staying in LF. Of course it would be an overpay, but Boston is fine with doing that. Worse case scenario for the Red Sox, he ends up being unproductive, or best case, he rebounds. Best case for Napoli, he can get another nice payday the year after. Napoli’s production right now is still decent, so it isn’t like they are buying a guy whom they’d have to fix (a.k.a. Masterson).
Money is something the Red Sox and Yankees can spend, so I take your point. But I guess my question i also related to Craig, since he can also be used there, and he’s a sunk cost right now.
If the season continues the way it has, I can see the Red Sox calling him up and seeing what he can do. If he shows that he has rebounded, then yes, I can see them passing on Napoli and giving Craig the everyday job.
I don’t see why Hanley “being content” has anything to do with it. Boston is loaded with OF, one of which is NOT Hanley. He is playing out of position, if he even has one. Why should Boston spend money on an underperforming 1B, AND leave one of its OF assets on the bench or in the minors, because Hanley is “content” in LF. Do whats best for the Team, not what makes Hanley content.
Do you have any stats to support your umpire conspiracy theory? Napoli is struggling. Mayhaps it be because of the degenerative hip problem he was diagnosed with? Less power, less range seems to indicate it as a possibility. If even a possibility, I would not offer a QO. Hanley can learn the position in the off-season. Look how fast he picked up LF!
Were the “bad calls” the same location as the umpire called for the other players? He complains a lot. I think that produces a net positive, but maybe not with every umpire.
I’ve never seen Napoli complain a lot, though it is certainly something that has been quite common this year it seems. As for the bad calls, I’m not sure if the umpires have done it for other players or not, which could be the case. Prior to this year, I can’t remember having very many close calls not going Napoli’s way, which has certainly been the opposite this year.
Hanley needs to suck it up and this winter, start practicing at first. He is beyond brutal in the OF
His UZR/150 is slowly getting better, lol.
LOL…each fly ball that gets hit his way scares the hell out of me. He literally makes manny look like a gold glove. I know he’s never played OF prior to this, but damn
Does it have a choice?
Hanley does not need to do anything. The Red Sox have paid him. He can relax now if he wants. His professionalism was always a question mark. Why expect him to be different than his whole career?
That is why no one else came close to what the Red Sox gave him. You get whole package with Hanley. Why should Boston fans expect him to suddenly step it up now?
This is getting ridiculous. In a time when offense is down, the umps are calling a bigger strike zone. If they’re going to call pitches outside of the strike zone strikes, then MLB needs to redefine what the strike zone is. A player shouldn’t have to go to the plate and not know whether a pitch that isn’t a strike by the rules, is now going to be one.
There are some historical precedents for certain types of hitters being unusually impacted by a change in strike zone. Bill James suggested that Dale Murphy in particular was one.
All you have to do is watch Napoli and you can tell he’s being impacted by it. He usually has a very good sense of the strike zone, but when it changes game to game it’s tough to really get you footing.
The day of the draft I was watching MLB network and that morning the two guests were Mike Schmidt and John Smoltz. They talked about a wide variety of things including how the game has changed. One thing they did touch on is the fact that players, both hitters and pitchers, need to know who is umpiring behind the plate. Neither one sees that happening as much anymore. Years ago when umpires used an outside chest protector they almost always set up directly behind the catcher giving them a direct line view of home plate… They no longer do that. Because of that it is important to know who is behind the catcher. It’s part of the game, it’s a human factor of the game. Is it perfect? No. But neither is anything else in life. The strike zone will vary a bit, in and out, depending on the umpire and where he sets up. I am not criticizing Napoli, and I’m not saying, for sure, that he doesn’t know the umps but I do tend to agree with both Schmidt and Smoltz that not as many players really “Know the Ump”. Before Mark Grace messed up and was canned as a D-Backs announcer he used to comment on the exact same thing. Many times he would say “so-and-so is behind the plate and this hitter needs to know is going to get squeezed on the outer portion of the plate”.
I do however agree that something needs to be done about the strike zone definition…. Because there is not a single umpire in the game today that follows the definition to the letter as it is in the rulebook.
It’s cool to change the strike zone. You just have to be able to tell the players exactly what the new strike zone is.
Is there a link for Hanley “emphatically rejecting” the idea of playing first base? I haven’t read or heard anything to that effect, but had been thinking that would be a good move for the Sox next year, since he’s got infield experience and has been such a butcher in the outfield. Could always move Pablo across the diamond and stick him at third I guess, but that’s probably a worse defense and leaves you paying 19 million a year to a first baseman who doesn’t hit for power.
There’s a quote in the Bradford story linked to above. Fully story: fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/…
Thanks!
Looks like my comment was deleted (I did write the post!). This info is in the link provided. Also just linked to the full story on the site.
With so many failures with free agent signings of players over 30, I think the tide has shifted. I do not think he will be overpaid.
2015 Enron.
“The Smartest Guys in the Room”
“Outside of Chris Davis of the Orioles, Red Sox first baseman Mike Napoli will likely be the most highly sought-after player at the position on next year’s free agent market”
So you’re saying if a team is in the market for a first baseman next season they would be wise to look internally or via trade.
You’d always be wise to do that first, but yeah, it isn’t looking great.
Let the umps call fair/foul, and base outs in addition to rule infractions and reviewing safe/out arguments questioned by the managers. Hit by pitch would be the umps call.
Have an electronic device that covers the strike zone without any arguments–this to me is the only way we will find a legitimate strike zone. I believe a robotic device could easily get it right 99.9 % of the time.
Re. Napoli, I’m sure there are other hitters in the majors that don’t watch the pitch from when it leaves the pitchers hand but Napoli may have never seen a pitch he has hit.
I’ve watched almost every game he has played for the Sox; he should never argue a Ball/Strike call–if he does it’s a guess-he virtually never watches the ball.
In addition he takes the first pitch 80% or more of the time; so he starts in the hole.
He is a pretty good def. 1 B.
I would not offer him a QO for fear he would take it.
If RAJ would trade Ryan Howard to the Sox for Nap–I would take that deal in a heartbeat along with $50 M.
QO and that’s it for him. .146 in RISP this year.