The Braves have signed all of their top picks with the exception of first-round selection Kolby Allard, and David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that it’s looking like there’s a “legit chance” that Allard will honor his commitment to UCLA rather than sign with Atlanta (Twitter links). O’Brien does add that there’s a chance this could be posturing in an attempt to get a bit more money out of the Braves.
Selected with the No. 14 overall pick in this year’s draft, Allard’s slot comes with a value of $2,842,200. However, Allard was at one time speculated to be selected within the top 10, if not top five picks of this year’s draft before a stress reaction in his back cost him about two months of his senior season at San Clemente High School in California. As such, it’s possible that Allard’s advisers are pushing for a bonus that’s more commensurate with higher draft slots.
The Braves were assigned a bonus pool of $10,684,100 (via Baseball America) heading into this year’s draft, and they’ve saved a total of $87,500 on the rest of their picks from the top 10 rounds, per MLB.com. The Braves can also exceed their allotted bonus pool by 4.99 percent before incurring the loss of a pick in next year’s draft, which comes out to about $533K. Paired with the $87,500 they’ve saved on their other top picks, that means the Braves could afford to offer Allard up to $3,462,000 (roughly $620,600 over slot) without losing a future pick. That value would be just slightly below the slot value of the No. 8 overall selection ($3,470,600).
Allard ranked sixth on the Top 100 of ESPN’s Keith Law heading into the draft, while MLB.com rated him 16th, and he placed 18th on the draft lists of BA and Fangraphs. Allard was considered the top prep arm in this year’s class thanks to a plus curve and an above-average fastball before injuring his back, per Law. Should Allard indeed end up attending UCLA, the Braves would be awarded with the 15th overall pick in next year’s draft (one slot lower than that of the failed signing).
I hope we sign him with the funds we have available. Getting the 15th pick in next year’s draft will not offset the lost year of development that will be missed. We are building the farm system for the future and missing out on a first round pick will not help. On a side note, I hate how people are “advising” high school kids that 3.4 million is not enough for them sign and begin the job of their dreams. The amount that people get paid to play sports is getting out of control, in all major sports.
To be fair, we don’t know what the Braves are offering, if the advisers are holding out for more, etc. But generally speaking, I agree. If you’re offered $1MM+ as a high school kid, take the money. If your career doesn’t pan out, you can go to college afterward and have an incredible head start on life that few others get.
For real. The braves have probably made there best offer already. you don’t walkaway from this type of money if you are an intelligent man.
Braves are offering slot plus money plus 4 year scholership. Drop this kid and get another next year when the internationals may be combined.
I would generally agree with this, but I think you have to take into account the idea that many think that the gamble for more is worth it. If the mindset is a year in college playing baseball isn’t such a bad thing to earn a lot more, it may be tough to settle for less than you think you would get. Personally, I think a good guaranteed offer, with a chance to start your career a year earlier (and possibly your service clock earlier) would be worth it. Unless you are getting a gigantic payoff for waiting, the big dollars are in arbitration and free agency.
Good Bye Koby. Good luck next year. Must have been a bunch of crap about how much he wanted to be only a brave. Please do not go over slot Mr. Hart. We will do better next year with the 15th overall pick.
I’m no doctor or GM, but a stress fracture in the back seems a justifiable reason not to pay over-slot, especially for a player whose pre-injury draft projections were about on target to where he ended up. (FWIW, Kiley McDaniel had him going #23 to the Cardinals in his final, post-injury mock draft.)
It’s a ridiculous gamble to turn down millions of dollars. That’s life changing money. If you are valued that highly as a draft pick, teams feel you have a major league future. It’s a completely different scenario from being taken in the lower rounds where the bonuses are 5 digits.
I had a friend in high school who was offered a bonus of $200k. It’s not millions, but it’s a lot of money. Some people have to work 8 years to make that.
Anyway, he turned it down. He wanted to experience going to college as an 18 year old. Living in the dorms, going to parties, making tons of new friends.
The minor leagues are not a glamorous lifestyle, and to some people, money doesn’t matter much.
I’m well aware of the subject. 200k is reasonable to turn down….but I’m not sure that being a 1st rounder with nearly a 2m bonus is the same. That’s life altering money. I was involved with a major collegiate baseball program, and I’d advise most young players to go to college myself…I just see turning down 2m as more of a gamble to reenter the draft than anything.
I don’t know, back injuries and pitching are not a good combination. I don’t know what the Braves offered him, but if I were Hart I’d tell him to take it or leave it.