Let’s be honest: this is not a question we expected to be asking at the start of the year, when Marco Estrada was settling into the Blue Jays pen as a swingman and long reliever. But he impressed early, provided a solid rotation presence much of the way, and had a notable impact in the post-season. That makes it worthwhile to wonder: is a qualifying offer in play?
We already know something about Estrada’s market valuation, because the Jays acquired him early last fall from the Brewers. The swap sent first baseman Adam Lind to Milwaukee. He, too, had a nice season after the deal, but at the time it wasn’t the most impactful deal. If anything, that trade suggested that Lind was the more valuable player, since he was the more expensive side of the 1-to-1 trade. Lind cost $7.5MM last year, plus a $500K buyout on a $8MM option that wasn’t certain to be exercised (but now likely will be). Estrada, meanwhile, ultimately agreed to a $3.9MM salary to avoid arbitration.
Nothing about that trade suggested that Estrada would be valued at anything close to the qualifying offer rate. Wwhen he came to Toronto, he was coming off of a four-year run in which he compiled 509 2/3 innings of 3.99 ERA pitching, with 8.4 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9. But that K rate had been in decline, and 2013 was his worst season in the earned run department.How have things changed since? MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a closer look in September, but in a nutshell, it’s hard to argue with Estrada’s 2015 results: he logged a 3.13 ERA over 181 frames. But his strikeouts plummeted to 6.5 per nine, while his walks ranged above his career average to 2.7 BB/9. And ERA estimators were not pleased with the new mix of peripherals: Estrada earned a 4.40 FIP, 4.93 xFIP, and 4.64 SIERA.
It’s worth noting, also, that Estrada enjoyed a .216 batting average on balls in play against him. He’s always controlled contact, as Tony Blengino of Fangraphs has explained, but that’s still a notably low mark. He has a notably excellent change, and doesn’t rely on velocity, so you might like his chances going forward. But Estrada has already turned 32 years of age, so that’s not on his side, either.
Then again, the post-season provided Estrada an opportunity to put his abilities on display before the entire league, and he didn’t disappoint. In 19 1/3 innings over three starts, he allowed just five earned runs while striking out 15 and issuing only one walk.
All said, there’s reason for some skepticism, but also reason to believe that some team will make Estrade a three-year offer at a healthy AAV. And given that possibility, he might be inclined to test the market for what will likely be his best chance at a multi-year deal. Meanwhile, a pitching-needy Toronto club might feel okay about taking the risk that Estrada will accept a $15.8MM, one-year qualifying offer. That wouldn’t exactly be crippling for a large-budget contender, even if he’s only a solid back-of-the-rotation piece.
It’ll be fascinating to see what happens with Estrada. For now, let’s see what MLBTR’s readers think: should the Jays make him a qualifying offer?
[polldaddy poll=9148568]
Estrada’s peripherals are very concerning, but his flyball-ways seem to be a fit for Rogers Centre. If the Jays are okay with the possibility of Estrada accepts a QO, then they should definitely offer him one, but I’m expecting him to decline after having his best year and being a free agent for the first time. At 31, this is Estrada’s time to cash in.
SkyDome is more suited to groundball pitchers, the ball tends to find the seats pretty often in that small park.
I say yes. I find it hard to believe, even at age 32, that Estrada can’t secure a contract with a total value in excess of the QO (heck, even two years/$10MM AAV would get him there and he can probably get three). He’s a valuable pitcher in the sense that he can be both an acceptable back-end starter, a long-man and a middle reliever depending on the team’s needs and how they may change during a season or a deal, which makes him extra attractive. That all leans toward him rejecting.
Meanwhile, there’s not a ton of upside to accepting. He had a really fine season so the odds that he improves on it enough to get a bigger deal when he’s a year older isn’t likely. Really the only reason he should even consider it is because he’s exactly the kind of questionable-to-offer candidate whom the QO hurts the most.
Calculated risk, as always, but I say offer it. With all the rotation and bullpen questions Toronto has going into next season there are worse things in the world than having Estrada back even if it’s for too much money.
As a Jays fan, I got to see Estrada take a no-hitter into the 7th at home against Baltimore in May. Since that game he’s been an undeniable rock in their rotation since being officially implemented into the starting rotation. I think AA would be stupid to give him a qualifying offer, as he could so easily walk away from it and fetch 4 years/40 million somewhere else with more stability and more money. Although his stock has gone up significantly since pitching so well in the playoffs, it would definitely be in the Jays’ best interest to try to sign him to a multi-year deal, so that they can retain the majority of their rotation next year. As it stands, the Jays will have but Marcus Stroman, with possibly R.A Dickey in their starting rotation. Since Price is a big question mark at this point, signing Estrada would guarantee a solid starter for a season that right now has an uncertain starting rotation. I’d personally love to see Estrada back with the Blue Jays next year. But hey, that’s why Alex is the GM and not me!
At 32 years old Estrada’s suddenly a success. . .that happens all the time right? I evaluated him i a post a few days ago and what the above post doesn’t say is why he was so successful.
AL hitters were overwhelmingly unlucky when facing him, managing a meager .216 BAbip against him as a starter (.220 overall). That was the lowest BAbip of any starter in the majors, lower than Grienke’s .229, Jake Arrieta’s .246, Hector Santiago’s 2.53, Sonny Gray’s .255, R.A. Dickey’s 257 and Dallas Keuchel‘s 2.64. All of that while his FIP was within it’s normal range at 4.40.
If they want to keep him they should offer him an extension reflecting his career numbers but a QO is a big mistake. He’s not worth a draft pick or $15.8M
His 2012 and 2013 seasons were pretty decent too. He took a step back in 2014, but this year, he took a big step forward.
To suggest that Estrada is suddenly a success is false. He’s been good before; this season, he’s been great.
Also, simply citing BABIP as a factor of luck is somewhat naive.
Estrada was the league leader in generating pop-outs. (he’s consistently been among the league leader in that category)
This means that Estrada is doing a good job of generating weak contact.
Has lucky played a part? Sure. But he’s also a fly-ball pitcher in the hitting-friendly SkyDome. His success this season is more than just ‘good luck’.