With Gerardo Parra on board, the Rockies have four left-handed-hitting outfielders. A trade may not be inevitable, but it isn’t hard to see how one would make sense, particularly given that Colorado is still in need of pitching. Here’s the latest:
- It may be that Corey Dickerson, rather than Carlos Gonzalez or Charlie Blackmon, could be the likeliest player to be traded, a report from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports suggests (Twitter links). There’s a sense from some in the game, he says, that the 26-year-old may be on the move this winter, due in part to the fact that he might not cost as much as his more established teammates.
- Though he hasn’t even yet cracked 1,000 MLB plate appearances, Dickerson does appear to offer the greatest value upside of the three trade candidates. That’s due in large part to the fact that he’s cheaper and subject to greater control than are the other two. But he also has shown some serious potential with the bat, putting up a .299/.345/.534 slash that is quite impressive even with Coors Field as a home park. On the other hand, defensive metrics haven’t been in love with his glove.
- As Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported, and Rosenthal echoes, the Rays are still involved in chatter with Colorado. Topkin adds that he believes left-handed reliever Jake McGee could be the key name involved in talks from Tampa Bay’s side. That’s certainly an interesting development, as the Rockies have already done some bullpen work this winter and seem more in need of rotation help. Of course, there’s still room for improvement there and McGee is a premium arm. Notably, too, Topkin adds that the addition of Dickerson would likely force the Rays to pursue additional moves.
CAREER STATS
Dickerson: 1.085 OPS at Coors / .695 OPS everywhere else
Blackmon: .890 OPS at Coors / .695 OPS everywhere else
Gonzalez: 1.016 OPS at Coors / .752 OPS everywhere else
Whoever trades anything of value for any of these guys is getting ripped off. These guys are all Coors mirages of some kind.
I give up. But I’ll try one more time … NEVER evaluate a player by their road stats. It just doesn’t tell you anything, especially for players who play in extreme environments. Jose Fernandez” career road ERA is almost 4. There are a million examples. What happens when good Rockies hitters join another team is their road numbers get better and their home numbers get worse, and they end up in exactly the same place (overall) as they were on the Rockies. The adjustment involved in going from hitting at Coors to hitting anywhere else (and the NL West is full of extreme pitching parks) makes their road numbers unnaturally low.
Hey, I’m listening. Those Rockies hitters spend a lot of time in San Diego, LA, and SF. What, something like 57 out of 81 away games there?
27, but it’s still relevant.
Yeah, duh…half those games are in Denver. I only teach math, I don’t do it.
Add to the fact that players perform better at home regardless.
League average in 2015:
Home .260/..324/.415 .739 OPS 101 wRC+
Road .249/.310/.394 .704 OPS 92 wRC+
Everybody tends to hit better at home regardless of the environment. It’s only exaggerated by the hitting environment at Coors field.
Yes this!! When a player is home he’s more comfortable. Sleeps in his own bed. Is in a routine. Plus has the fans giving you some drive and confidence. I played 2 years in Pirates system. Big difference when someone is yelling at you in the road that you suck and your mothers is a wh**e .. We are human you know!
I’ve never heard ANYONE say “your mother is a whale”
“Everybody tends to hit better at home regardless of the environment. It’s only exaggerated by the hitting environment at Coors field.”
Nope, not “everybody”, and my entire point is that exaggeration is not worth paying up a premium cost for those 3 specific players I mentioned.
You would think writing “Buyer beware on all Rockies hitters” would be common knowledge around here, but I guess there’s always someone who thinks they know more than everyone else….
Your mama is so fat…
Are stats inflated at Coors Field? Yes.
Statistically, do players suffer from a post-Coors hangover after a home stretch? Yes.
Data doesn’t really exist about what non=hangover effects are on home-road splits. No.
So let’s (conservatively) assume a 10% bump from road splits for these 3 to account for the hangover.
Dickerson: .765 OPS
Blackmon: .765 OPS
Gonzalez: .827 OPS
And considered that their season totals/projections, you have some good hitters/comparables – Dickerson+Blackmon: Brandon Crawford, Daniel Murphy, Dexter Fowler, Joc Pederson, Matt Kemp, Matt Duffy, etc. CarGo: Adrian Gonzalez, Buster Posey, Curtis Grandson, etc.
And that could be selling short the ‘home comfort’ factor jtmorgan mentions (see below) which would make comparables along the lines of Justin Upton, Jayson Hayward, Todd Frazier. CarGo-Ryan Braun, Kris Bryant, etc.
League average in 2015:
Home .260/..324/.415 .739 OPS 101 wRC+
Road .249/.310/.394 .704 OPS 92 wRC+
Definitely some value to be returned in these players (plus what ever other qualities they bring (lefty bats, speed on bases, etc.)).
Granted I want nothing to do with CarGo and his injury history/age.
I believe it was “your mother is a white.” Sorry to have offended any of you honkeys.
We prefer “Caucasian-American” or “Euro-trash”.
Who’s suggesting they are worth a “premium”? Seamaholic is right on the money. When you play half your games at altitude, the contrast between home and road is greater than it is for players who play almost all their games near sea level altitudes.so adjusting to pitching on the road for Rockies hitters is extremely difficult. Throw in the added challenge of having 3 of the 4 teams in the division with decidedly pitchers’ parks and that makes for even worse road splits. The Rockie outfielders are much better hitters than their road splits suggest and much worse hitters than their home splits suggest. Cargo is a premium hitter regardless.. The other two are solid major league quality bats though Blackmon would command more as a pure CF.
And just like most “common knowledge” it is actually wrong.
“I guess there’s always someone who thinks they know more than everyone else” Thank you for volunteering for that job. You fill it so nicely.
How can you be so arrogantly wrong about everything ever? So massive sample scales are meaningless to you because you think all players play better at home, and give one example. There a million examples of players who hit and pitch better on the road too, genius, These aren’t rookies with a lot of noise in the data, these are veterans who for many years hit well above their means due to their ridiculous home park where the ball flies out on a level like no one has ever seen before. My comment still stands, whoever trades for any of these guys is not going to get the overall OPS they have had with their wildly out of wack with reality home field.
You cant be older than 16 with that attitude, “NEVER” in all caps? Haha nope.
So we should disregard the numbers on players that have left Colorado for other teams? Come on Seamaholic you are talking out of your arse.
There is only one real example of a star player that has left Colorado before a decline in the humidor era. Matt Holliday. His splits were horrible too. His OPS was about 300 points higher at home against the road. His career absolutely fell apart after he left Denver, didn’t it?
If you want to stretch the term star player, then you could look at Dexter Fowler. In his final year in Colorado, his OPS was .776. His year in Houston that OPS fell all the way down to .774. His year in Chicago it was at .757. Tell me again how Coors inflates stats.
There are other players that played much better in Colorado than elsewhere like Garrett Atkins and Brad Hawpe, but they were already in decline before they left. Both were released actually. .But I guess the “common knowledge” is much more fun for you than facts.
Anyone who tries to acquire them without giving up value, won’t get them. The reason other teams would be interested in them, is because they have value. No team is looking to acquire a player with no value, therefore value must be given, in order to get.
i’d like to see the Astros or Padres get Dickerson. nice bat for both lineups.
The primary problem when comparing Corey Dickerson to the other outfield candidates in a trade scenario is his weak arm, relegating him to either LF or 1B.
The issue the Rockies might have in trading Charlie Blackmon is that he is their best CF candidate among the group, not to mention the team’s lead-off hitter.
Gerardo Parra was just signed a free agent, meaning he can’t be traded until June 15th without his approval. Any team that might have been interested in him would have just bid on his services while a FA anyway, now they would have to surrender an asset to get him.
Imo, this makes Carlos Gonzalez the most likely and appealing trade candidate to most clubs. His remaining $38M salary that includes a $1M trade bonus, fewer years of team control and injury history might also mean “Cargo” has less trade value, especially in comparison to Blackmon. In theory, clubs should be able to obtain him with a lesser return of assets going back to the Rockies. Perfect fit for the White Sox in RF and as a bridge between Jose Abreu and Todd Frazier in the middle of their batting order provided they don’t have to relinquish a significant player from their 2016 active roster or either of their top 2 prospects, SS Tim Anderson and pitcher Carson Fulmer.
I honestly think the Cardinals will swoop in and get CarGo. they have young arms in the minors and want to unload Adams along with someone like Pham .
Dont hold your breath, the Cardinals dont wanna give up anybody to get CarGo. They believe Piscotty, Grichuk and Pham can handle it. Whether they do or not remains to be seen
Those guys could fit well in the AL East Ballparks. Baltimore and Toronto the ball doesnt seem to stay in for much longer than an inning at times.
Last year folks thought Nelson Cruz’s #’s would dip in Seattle but they did not as he again hit 40 HR’s.. You never know.
Shhhh don’t tell seemaholic that Cruz hit 27 HR away and 17 at home last year, he might have to admit he doesn’t know what he’s talking about!!!
LOL! I’m not sure that statistic takes the side of this argument you think it does!
LOL! It does now, seeing as you made it a black and white argument of “ALL players ALWAYS hit better at home and NEVER judge away stats!!!” remember???
That is not what he said. He did provide cumulative home and away totals, which show for most players, that is the tendency.
you and your comments are starting to become as bad as cjcronsdisease and that will. Not a good group to be in with.
Wait, Bautista didn’t hit in Colorado, but he does hit in Toronto. How does this fit either theory?
Toronto is a massive hitters park, just look at Josh Donaldsons 2014 and 2015 seasons for proof of what a pretty good player can do there vs what they can do in Oakland….and this was my point all along. If Donaldson went back to Oakland next year, we’d see the .798 OPS Donaldson, not the .939 one.
Oakland is a vastly different park than Colorado. Are you saying Toronto is so much more a hitters park than Colorado?
Have thought all along Braves should make a play on Dickerson. Controllability, price, and potential are huge for a rebuilding club.
shouldn’t this conversation have ended when Matt Holliday proved it to be wrong? Outside of his age 26 and 27 seasons everything is nearly identical. Yeah Coors has an effect on their numbers but it’s not like Holliday left and hit 220
Great players are always going to be great players, and average players will hit better in hitter friendly parks than otherwise. Blackmon, Cargo and Dickerson are not in the same conversation as Matt Holliday, who is about 2 great seasons away from entering the HOF convo.
perfect, I was hoping someone would say this. What’s your defense to tulo then? Everyone was quick to say they didn’t want him cause of the coors effect at the deadline but what makes Tulo and Holliday any different in terms of star power as hitters at their positions, shouldnt the reasoning behind saying Holliday doesn’t apply thus apply to tulo as well? While I don’t believe Blackmon or Dickerson are on that level it’s not like they’re suddenly going to become replacement level players fighting for playing time. CarGo on the otherhand is harder since so much if his game is based on power and the one area it looks affects him the most is K’s and power, which makes sense, but even with his road splits a 260 hitter with 25+ bombs in todays market is still worth a ton of money, which are his road splits. It’s just very exaggerated. Like you said great hitters stay great just like bad hitters don’t become great because of a ballpark
But everyone was making that same argument about Holliday in 2009. Blackmon and Dickerson might not be in the Holliday discussion yet, but Carlos Gonzalez unquestionably is in about the same place as Holliday at the same age.
Matt Holliday will not make the HoF. He was nowhere near the defender Edmonds was and although a slightly better batting average over his career the rest of his numbers pale in comparison and Edmonds didn’t even get 5 percent of the vote this year.
You want to end a debate because of 1 player?
How about Dexter Fowler, who was nearly identical in Houston and Chicago to Colorado? How about Andres Galarraga, who hit even better in Atlanta the year after having a great season at Coors. There aren’t that many more examples honestly because Colorado has historically locked up its star players like Todd Helton and Larry Walker long term. If they leave at all it is after their age decline begins.
Like every team, some ex-players do well, and some dont. Few hitters, however, have their best season after leaving Coors.
The Rockies moving value (especially 4 years of Corey Dickerson), potentially for 2 years of a reliever..would be a very Rockies thing to do.
This team needs core, controlled pieces – not a reliever. What use will Jake McGree have on a team with so many holes, and is almost an entire rebuild away from being a contender?
Even if they aren’t moving their OF surplus (a situation created by an illogical signing) for a reliever – why would they move anything for a reliever?
Makes me wonder what trained monkeys they have in the Rockies offices.
Being a fan of a different team in the NL West, I won’t be heartbroken if the Rockies continue to swim in their own mess. But still, from a Baseball perspective, this Franchise needs serious fixing.
From what I understand, McGee isn’t the only piece, nor is Dickerson. It’s a starting point. And McGee would be one of the better pieces in our pen if traded here. It would probably be a 3-4 person deal.
An update, perplexed Blackmon avoids arbitration and signed 1 year at 3.5 mil. Never a good sign when a player says he’s perplexed signing a deal. Anyways kidding aside Dickerson would be perfect for the Indians. The question is at what price? Rockies need pitching so how about RHP Cody Anderson, RHP Mike Clevinger, & RHP Dylan Baker for Dickerson who can play LF while Brantley’s injured. Can shift to CF or RF afterwards pending how Davis/Almonte/Chisenhall. Plus Tribe controls Dickerson 3 yrs.