FEB. 12, 6:38pm: A deal isn’t expected to come together this evening, Kubatko tweets.
9:06am: There’s some hope that the deal could be completed today, tweets Heyman, though the two sides are still debating whether the deal would be three years or three years plus an option, he notes. Once the Orioles have Gallardo’s deal wrapped up, the focus will shift to a bat, Heyman adds. They’ve been linked to Dexter Fowler, Jay Bruce and Pedro Alvarez recently.
FEB. 10, 5:07pm: ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets that “if and when” the deal between the Orioles and Gallardo is finalized, he’ll be guaranteed $40-45MM over three years.
10:40am: There’s momentum toward a deal, but some “tweaks” in the proposed terms are needed to finalize a pact, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports (Twitter links).
9:54am: The sides are “moving close” to a contract that would include three guaranteed years, Jon Heyman reports on Twitter. It’s possible that an opt-out would be included, adds Heyman, who notes that an agreement is not yet in place. Baltimore appears to be in the lead to add Gallardo and already recently began reviewing his medicals, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com adds.
9:30am: The Orioles are “making progress” in contract talks with free agent righty Yovani Gallardo, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. Baltimore has long been said to be interested in the soon-to-be 30-year-old, but this report provides the first indication of deepening negotiations.
Gallardo declined a qualifying offer from the Rangers at the outset of the offseason, of course, and thus requires a signing team to sacrifice a draft pick to sign. In the Orioles’ case, the team would stand to part with its first-round choice — currently, the 14th overall selection. And it has been hesitant to do that after already missing out on possible comp picks in two cases (Matt Wieters and Chris Davis).
It’s not clear to what extent other teams remain involved in the hunt for the veteran, but many of the organizations that seemed plausible landing spots have taken alternative routes to building out their rotation. For instance, the Astros signed Doug Fister and the White Sox added Mat Latos. Recent reports also suggest that the Rockies are no longer in pursuit of Gallardo.
The qualifying offer is obviously a factor in Gallardo’s market, as it is with any player who receives one, but the bigger question in his value lies in how you view his results against his peripherals. As Tyler Clippard’s signing just proved, a lengthy track record of excellence may not always translate to corresponding earnings in free agency, even for somewhat younger pitchers, where there’s a lot of wear-and-tear and signs of declining underlying ability.
In the case of Gallardo, there’s plenty to like about his recent run prevention record, which includes 184 innings of 3.42 ERA pitching last year. But he’s also seen his strikeout rate fall all the way to 5.9 per nine with his walks rising to 3.3 BB/9. And Gallardo’s average fastball has declined by more than two miles per hour from his highest annual mean velocity.
It’s obvious to see why the Orioles are interested in bolstering a rotation that’s now without Wei-Yin Chen (who at least left a comp pick when he departed). There are options, to be sure. But there isn’t much in the way of upside — Kevin Gausman probably carries the most — and even some of the depth comes with its own questions. Baltimore figures to utilize Gausman, Ubaldo Jimenez, Chris Tillman, and Miguel Gonzalez in the starting five, with pitchers such as Odrisamer Despaigne, Vance Worley, Mike Wright, and Tyler Wilson also factoring into the competition.
Ultimately, it’s not clear that Gallardo would end up representing a truly significant upgrade over Baltimore’s current options, but he’s an established arm with a nice track record of durability. It’s worth noting, too — as Steve Adams pointed out to me — that his strong groundball rate (49.3% last year) would figure to play well with a high-quality Orioles infield defense to back him.
They aren’t rebuilding and are 1 SP away from looking like a legit contender, this move has made sense for months. Jimenez, Gallardo, Tillman, Gausman, Gonzalez isn’t better or worse than KC’s ’15 rotation either. Love this if they can get it happening.
baltimore isnt one starting pitcher away and gallardo wont play good for baltimore either, homerun pitcher in a hitters ballpark dont mix well
Weak argument for a guy who has pitched in texas and milwaukee
Well he’s going from pitching primarily against the teams who were 6th, 14th, 20th and 21st in runs scored to 1st, 2nd, 4th and 25th.
Don’t be surprised if Gallardo struggles with his K rate declining and velocity declining (as well as a high WHIP last year)
He is also going from one of the worst defenses to among the league best, his K rate declining is on purpose its this old thing pitchers used to do called pitching to contact., His GB percent has steadily risen and his FB percent has steadily declined, his hard percent contact was also lower than his career average this is a guy who is learning how to pitch, you either have to look deeper in numbers than k/9 or watch him actually pitch. He executed a game plan against the Blue Jays monster lineup by locating away and staying on his spot, that is pitching people.
“He is also going from one of the worst defenses to among the league best”
Except that isn’t true. See below. (Unless you look at traditional errors/Fielding percentage)
UZR, DEF, UZR/150 rankings
Texas – 5th, 5th, 3rd
Baltimore – 12th, 15th, 7th
Baltimore also had a higher BABIP (.294 to .291)
Texas was not one of the worst. It was one of the best. And Baltimore was not one of the best. It was average to slightly above average….at best.
gallardo would also be playing in other hitters ballparks in the al east he will struggle with baltimore and the jays and yanks will hit him hard
Red Sox too.
Agreed MB. This is Angelos not allowing Duquette to spend money on guys the team could really use and going only after people he personally wants (Davis). Gallardo will probably turn into another Jimenez, or worse another Nolasco. Duquette would have been better off trying to squeeze 15m out of Angelos for reclamation project Fister.
Jimenez was awful his first year with the O’s, but had a decent year last year. Still, the past 4 years, he’s alternated from decent to terrible. 2016 to be a terrible year for him? We shall see.
UZR Ratings are skewed with the poor performance of the Orioles outfield last year. It was a non-stop platoon in both corner outfield spots and Adam Jones had injuries the last two months. Still not completely solidified, but Hyun Soon-Kim, Reimold, Alvarez, and potentially Chris Davis (were Trumbo starting at 1B that day) are all above average defenders with plus arms.
The Orioles infield defense, with a healthy Jonathan Schoop at 2B, is all gold-glove caliber.
Their OF was ranked 17th. That isn’t good, but it’s not terrible.
Won’t argue how good their IF defense is.
Baltimore was ranked 3rd in defense last year and 1st in the A.L.
Lol that was in Fielding percentage which is an awful stat my friend. Derek Jeter is 22nd all time in Fielding Percentage for SS, and I can assure you he isn’t the 22nd best Fielding SS of all time.
Texas is not the hitter’s paradise it once was, and, three of the five parks in the division are notoriously hard to hit homeruns in, Gallardo has given up more than 20 home runs in a season 4 times in his career; it stands to reason that he will have some trouble in Baltimore.
“his K rate declining is on purpose its this old thing pitchers used to do called pitching to contact”
Uh, that’s not why pitchers have declining K rates as they get older. It’s because their velocity and stamina decreases.
There isn’t a pitcher in baseball who would purposely pitch to contact if they had the ability to strike people out. A strikeout is a guaranteed out. Balls in play = BABIP, which is always greater than .000.
Again, Gallardo is not a home run pitcher. he is a noted groundball pitcher who will benefit from the outstanding Orioles infield. Through his career, Gallardo has allowed less than one HR every nine innings. Last year, he gave up just 15 in 184 innings. That, my friends, is outstanding HR prevention.
What you say is true, but only to a point. Pitching coaches always say, “Get the hitter out early,” A strikeout out takes at least three pitches, but if you can get a guy to groundout on the second pitch of the at bat, that benefits the pitcher. Hitters want to prolong at bats to run up pitch counts, pitchers want hitters out of the way early.
Good points, all. Baltimore has reason to expect a solid season from Gallardo if he stays healthy. My only complaint from watching him all last season is his pitching away and/or to contact leads to a higher pitch count in his case. Last year felt like he was always at 100 pitches bf the 6th inning. BUT his performance against Toronto last playoffs is Gallardo at his best. No clue why he didn’t get the ball in Game 5…he was the obvious choice to me. They went with Dutch, and the rest is history.
This actually makes a little sense. Gallardo hasn’t really ever played with a good defense behind him.
Orioles have a strong infield defense which I’m sure was what they were inferring as Machado, JJ Hardy and Davis are all plus to superb fielders at their positions. Gallardo being a GB pitcher would and should do better with a better infield that doesn’t have guys like Moreland, Andrus and Odor who are average to below average at their positions.
Ground ball pitcher.
Gallardo gave up 15 hrs last season. More of a ground ball pitcher. He is a guy that gets you 180 plus innings a year. When you have a team with the bats of the Orioles just need to keep it close.
The Orioles are just a pitcher away and Gallardo is not a homerun pitcher. He gave up just 15 in 184 innings last year and is a noted groundball pitcher.
You lost your best starter and replaced him with a decent starter. The Orioles have a great bullpen, but their rotation still isn’t very good.
Gallardo’s FB velocity has dropped, BB rate gone up, K rate gone down, and his WHIP was very poor (1.41). His ERA+ was pretty good though for his first year in the AL.
Run prevention the most important thing and the Orioles have a better defense than Texas
Texas was 3rd in all of baseball in UZR/150, The Orioles were 7th.
Texas was 5th in total UZR. The Orioles were 14th
Texas had 5 defensive runs saved, The Orioles were -7.
The only good stat O’s had and poor stat Rangers had was fielding percentage (.987 and .981). As well as errors (77 to 119)
Everyone knows the Orioles outfield is punished for playing in small AL east parks if you thinkt he Rangers have a better defense than the Orioles you need to watch more baseball.
“Everyone knows the Orioles outfield is punished for playing in small AL east parks”
Lol, yes, because Globe Life Park is very pitcher friendly with its own short dimensions and 100 degree weather in the summer
Ballpark Factors have them nearly the same
Hits – 4th/3rd
2B – 6th/14th
3B – 14th/21st
HR – 12th/2nd
I’m not trying to brag, but I work at MLB Advanced Media and watch multiple ball games a day, so I have seen Plenty of baseball, thank you very much.
No one else would describe those factors as “nearly the same.” They paint Camden as a tiny ball park and Texas as a medium one.
Globe Live – 4 + 6 + 14 + 12 = 36 and average of 9
Camden – 3 + 14 + 21 + 2 = 40 and an average of 10
If an average ranking of 9 is not nearly the same as 10, then what is? 9 and 9.25?
Anyway, you’re helping me prove my point in a way. Gallardo is going to a more friendly hitter park. So just because he pitched well in Texas (if we go by ERA) doesn’t mean he will in Camden.
You have it exactly backwards. Outfield defense metrics punish players in BIG parks, not small ones .For obvious reasons if you think about it for a second (outfielders aren’t dinged for home runs).
Globe Life is not a pitcher friendly ballpark by any ballpark factoring measurement.
Was this in response to me? I thought I was clearly being sarcastic
Yes, we lost our best starter last year in Chen, and I’m certainly not discrediting your profession which you mentioned in another comment but why do analysts and fans think that Gonzalez won’t bounce back after being injured last season (His first 10 starts before his injury got worse of 62 innings 50 K’s 22BB’s 50 hits [.220ish avg] wasn’t shabby)? Also, I know Gausmen hasn’t proved himself yet in the eyes of the media, but if you watched him pitch almost every game he played, then you know he’s molding consistency in his repertoire (It didn’t help he was bounced around a lot). I’m certain Gausmen will limit the HR total. If they are healthy, the Orioles could very well make the playoffs. I wouldn’t count them out.
Luckily they have about eight 30 homer guys in their lineup, so their pitching doesn’t necessarily need to be great.
yeah ask the jays how that is going, you still need good pitching to win
Chen was not the Orioles best starter. In era he was lowest but also struggled to get in 6 innings. Led the team inn HRs allowed as well.. Buck did not like his stamina or he would still be an Oriole. Yes and a 11 win pitcher. Tillman had a tough season but previous 2 1/2 he was 38-16.
Los Calcetines Rojos
agreed about them being closer to being a legit contender but my one worry about Gallardo has never been a legitimate difference maker for his teams. I will give him that he has always been a durable reliable innings eater but is that worth the 14th overall pick? I would say no. I wouldn’t want to surrender that pick for Gallardo unless the contract is dirt cheap and I’m talking a 4 year 40-60 million deal or a very incentive laden deal. that is team friendly. That 14th pick holds a lot of value and right now a lot of the O’s prospects have question marks whether it be a result of injury or consistency so that pick could ease the outlook on their system a bit.
Being the best pitcher on a playoff team isn’t being a difference maker? Strange logic. I like how the new attitude on pitching is he doesn’t strike people out he sucks, he doesn’t throw 100 mph he sucks. This generation of kids would seriously argue Glavine as not being a good pitcher.
Cole Hamels might disagree with him being the ” best pitcher” on the Rangers last year. Also, one could make the argument that Chi Chi was, AT TIMES, their best pitcher.
He very well might have been the most consistent, considering he sustained a decent level of success throughout the whole season, and also considering he was on their roster from the beginning to the end, but Hamels was definitely their best pitcher.
As far as my take/feelings about the Orioles picking up Gallardo, I’m relatively unsure of how I truly feel.
On one hand, you have the Orioles adding a very reliable pitcher who will just about give you a “quality start” or better every time he toes the rubber. (6+ Innings, 2-3 ER, 3-4 K’s, and 2 BB’s) Make no questions about it, the Orioles did, in fact, need Gallardo this season, in order to truly compete.
Where I’m tending to struggle with this signing, without even knowing the details of the contract, is the fact the Orioles have to give up the #14 OVERALL draft pick. This is a HUGE DEAL!! The Orioles are basically giving away what could ultimately be one of their top 2 or top 3 prospects.
To put it in a different light, would Baltimore fans be happy with trading away their 2nd or 3rd best prospect for Gallardo??
Because that is ultimately what this signing is coming down to….
If I’m a fan if the Orioles, I’m no so sure I really would want them to make that trade. I guess it just depends on whether you would want them to be more competitive this year, or have another top prospect available that could be ready in 3 years at the earliest??
It is weird that you go back to the strike out thing (a point I was agreeing with the past few times you said it) when this guy didn’t even mention strikeouts. Maybe the guy’s standard for “legitimate difference maker” is something closer to Glavine (who you mentioned very incongruously) than to Gallardo, an ERA in the 2.00s rather than the 3.00s.
To the guy you’re responding to: since when is 4/60 for a non-elite pitcher become a dirt-cheap contract? I know Ian Kennedy just got 5/70 but don’t forget Nolasco, Garza, Ubaldo, and Danks. They cost less than 4/60 and are some of the worst contracts in baseball.
The offseason is over and the guy hasn’t signed and still has a pick attached. It sounds like the O’s may be the only team pursuing him so why bid against themselves and give him the farm? That’s what they did with Ubaldo and it hasn’t worked out so well. I say offer him two years at 10-12 per, plus two like team options. Or else something like the 1/8 they gave to Cruz in the Ubaldo year. Again, no reason to bid against themselves.
I’m surprised it took this long for someone to bring up losing the 14th pick! I don’t think Gallardo is enough of an upgrade to forfeit the #14 pick.
Gallardo is not a true ace or whatever, but he’s a massive, massive upgrade from Mike Wright and a guy who’s never really been awful in his career. This is a fantastic, division-changing acquisition. That ceiling of the Orioles offense is higher than last year’s Blue Jays. Schoop hit 15 homers in 86 games at age 24, Davis, Jones, Machado, Hardy, Trumbo all hit 30+ before, Wieters, Paredes, Flaherty and Joseph have double digit power, Kim & Rickard the wildcards, but they might ditch Rickard for Fowler.
Is he a massive, massive upgrade from Chen?
I think you’re a little too optimistic on this deal. I don’t think Gallardo is going to fall on his face like Matt Garza, but he has a pretty low ceiling. If you’re lucky he’s going to give you what he gave Texas and not continue to lose velocity.
Gaillardia would be a good pickup for them, if a trade for rotation piece isn’t available either. Tillman and Gonzalez surely need to improve on last year’s stats. If they improve, the rotation will only be that much better.
Really? If Tillman and Gonzo improve, the rotation will be better?
And who is Gaillardia?
Still hoping we take a flyer on a rehab project like Lee or Masterson.
Lee would be nice, but I think he will want too much money. Someone will pay him for his upside.
I am happy, Gallardo did well against the Blue Jays in the Playoffs.
He knows how to pitch
Plus Tillman and Chen (when he was an O) struggled vs. the Jays.
So, Gallardo should help.
Also, my hope is the O’s go after Fowler, they might as well.
It’s really surprising how well he pitched against them last year, in the regular season and the playoffs
Reg season – 2-0, 0.00 ERA, 13.2 innings, 6 hits allowed. Only issue, which will continue to be an issue for him, is a lot of walks (5), and low K’S (6)
It’s amazing he had a 0.00 ERA in 13 innings against the MLB’s highest scoring team, but had a 5.06 ERA against a team 25th in runs scored and 2nd fewest in AL (Tampa).
Not really surprising. Jays like to swing the bats. Put the ball just out of reach and you should be fine.
Fowler’a on base skills would be valuable to the orioles. He had a career high in walks last season and showed he can have a decent on base percentage without having to hit for a high average. Plus he has decent speed and a little pop. I’m a fan of Nolan Reimold but I can’t say I trust him enough to feel comfortable relying on him everyday. I’ve wanted fowler for the Orioles for a few months now.
Another February signing from Duquette. Hopefully this one will work out, looks like it could.
Being able to work with Dave Wallace should help Gallardo on a few things. Wallace was able to help Jimenez get his stuff back together after that disastrous first year. Not saying Gallardo is the same here, but more towards Wallace being one of the best pitching coaches in MLB.
Looking forward to a great 2016.
When you have arguably the worst farm system in the American League (it’s either Baltimore or LA at this point), it’s inexcusable to give up a DP as high as 14 overall for a starter as mediocre as Gallardo. He’s a moderate upgrade over Gonzalez and the parade of crap that’s currently penciled in for the 5 spot, but not worth the cost IMO.
This team’s going to be bad in a few years regardless though, so if they think they’re a Gallardo away from being a potential playoff team (I don’t think they are, but we’ll see) they might as well go for it.
Out of place Met fan
Seems like another Duquette half measure. Four off-season’s in a row where top of the rotation was a need and filled by underwhelming back end starters.
If Baltimore doesn’t make it to the playoffs their whole front office should be fired. I haven’t seen so much money thrown at such stupid decisions in several years. And those contracts are going to handcuff them for years to come. They remind me of the Phillies 4 years ago….
If Duq really decides to surrender to draft pick to get Gallardo, then I hope he doubles up and signs Fowler to play RF as well.
Signing Gallardo and Fowler would require them to give up their first and second round picks.
Voice of Reason
Gallardo is living proof that there’s more to a pitcher than eye balling his era.
I doubt he is going to average $13,000,000 + on this contract…
IMO, the cost of the 14th pick and the bonus-pool money is simply greater (particularly for the O’s system) than the value Gallardo will provide.
Great point about the pool money. That is becoming more and more of an issue each year. Overslotting isn’t going away.
As a Red Sox fan I’m all about this. Have the Orioles give up their 14th pick to sign a fading Gallardo to a potentially multi-year deal? Yes please.
This would be unbelievably stupid. Giving money and time, and also sacrificing a very important draft pick for a declining pitcher who was mediocre at best.
Totally agree – the O’s have excelled at giving away pitching in recent years. At some point they need to focus on developing the farm system and giving away a high pick for a back-end innings-eater doesn’t make any sense. Of course, this is the same organization that gave away pitching last year to take on a couple of months of Gerardo Parra for no apparent reason.
On this forum the O’s are wrong no matter what they do! Some say they’re stupid for picking him up and forfeiting their pick. Others will say that they should have went after a much more talented FA. They all will say the O’s should have signed someone since Chen left if they don’t sign anyone… I had a lot higher expectations as well, but at least they’re adding proven reliability vs. last years not making any significant signings. Y’all probably thought Nelson Cruz was a stupid signing in February as well… It’s easy to be an arm chair quarterback (or pitch) a baseball team but in reality it makes all of you all look like really old and ugly women looking at a crystal ball for a prediction that you’ll never find until October! So, while I had hope for something different, I’m sure not going to bash someone that sure knows a heck of a lot more about baseball then I do! DD has an uncanny way of providing Buck with some interesting pieces and Buck has an uncanny way of helping those pieces produce. So, y’all keep staring into that crystal ball like a bunch of shrinks and I will watch exciting baseball again this year in Baltimore and hope for the best! Let’s Go O’s!!!!
This gets even stupider.
45 million for 3 years PLUS a draft pick?
Did Dan learn NOTHING from the Jiminez fiasco?
I don’t get it. Fans get mad when the team doesn’t spend money and when they do, they still don’t like it. Dan and buck looked at what they were going to get with the pick and decided that this guy was the better bet.
Exactly! Some freaks that sit in their tighty-whiteys all day reading blogs and watching an occasional ballgame somehow know so much more then two proven executives! See my post above! Some people will never allow the O’s to do anything right because it wasn’t their idea!
It’s not a matter of not wanting them to spend money – it’s people don’t want them to waste money on mediocre players and give up valuable draft picks at the same time.
Like Nelson Cruz?
No one would have said Nelson Cruz was mediocre when they signed him. How about Ubaldo? Or a 2 month rental of Gerardo Parra? Travis Snider?
Actually, I read a lot about Cruz being a washed up, mediocre, druggy when DD signed him! The others you mention I agree were poor signings as well. However, the last few years in the spring when the front office built a team to compete, there were many scoffers of additions that paid huge dividends. Another name like that is Steve Pearce. That’s why I choose to wait and see because this front office and management have a way of finding diamonds in the rough. So they strike out sometimes… They have fielded some decent teams in the last 4 years that on paper had no chances of a playoff berth. Feel free to speculate… We all could be surprised…. Or disappointed. No reason to cry wolf though. Regardless of the results in October – one thing I can predict is some interesting baseball in Baltimore with Buck at the helm. IMHO he is the reason they have had a decent run lately… Not who they did or did not sign.
Cruz was not a good bet. It was a gamble that paid off really well.
My point exactly… This is a gamble… Don’t judge it until we see what we get out of it!
Updated draft order if this move is made
I wouldn’t sign him, his WHIP is bad, FIP is bad and Ks are going down. His luck is about to end and he is also about to decline.
YG is the definition of average. Poor signing. Market was heading the other way. Better to take the draft pick and flip it during the year if you’re contending and then overspend if necessary.
If Gallardo signs a contract under the terms described above, a lot of Royals fans are going to restart grinding their teeth in hopeless frustration thinking about the contract Dayton Moore signed with Ian Kennedy.
Money being equal I am really torn as to who I would rather have on the team, Kennedy or Gallardo.
Who did Moore think he was competing with when he offered $70M plus an opt out to Kennedy, an offer that also cost the team its first round pick. For all he does well Dayton Moore is inexplicably clueless when it comes to the free agent market.
Yeah what does Dayton Moore know about building a team or anything…
Is this really that much of an upgrade over vance worley. I personally would rather them keep the draft pick unless the price is significantly lower.
Agreed – this is not far off from what Kazmir got and he’s better and wouldn’t cost a pick.
Can we get an updated draft order.
If Gallardo’s smart he’ll hold out for an opt-out after 2 years. If he gets a straight 3 year deal with no opt-out he’s going to be in the same boat he was in this year. A free agent with a whole bunch of much better free agents on the market.
Working out a deal with Gallardo seems to be taking longer than expected.