Earlier today, I laid out a high-level overview of the cases both for and against the Braves trading Julio Teheran. While there are certainly some gray areas in making a decision — every player, no matter how good, becomes tradeable once the value received in exchange reaches a certain point — we’ve asked the entire staff at MLBTR to offer its thoughts on whether the Braves should be open to making a move or should hang onto their best starting pitcher.
You can read the above-linked post for more info on the 25-year-old righty. Or, skip right ahead to the opinions of the MLBTR team:
Tim Dierkes: As the saying goes, “Better the devil you know than the devil you don’t.” Teheran has been in the Braves’ organization for nearly a decade, and they know him better than anyone. It was that familiarity that led them to sign him to a deal guaranteeing $32.4MM back in 2014, a fairly aggressive extension for a pitcher with less than two years of Major League service time. Research from Matt Swartz has shown that it is hard to avoid lemons when signing away free agent pitchers from other teams. The Braves may have good money to spend this winter in advance of their new stadium opening, but in addition to the issue of the “Other People’s Players” premium Swartz discovered, the free agent market for starting pitching looks historically bad. Even with Teheran, the Braves will need to add significant starting pitching if they hope to contend in 2017. Verdict: Retain him.
Steve Adams: There’s virtually no scenario in which trading Teheran makes the Braves better in 2016, and they’d be hard-pressed to find a deal that makes them definitively better in 2017 — the year in which they supposedly aim to contend in a new stadium. The Braves have stocked their farm with pitching depth, but Teheran is their best pitcher in the Majors right now, and his $32.4MM contract has enough surplus value that the asking price could (and should) reasonably rival the Shelby Miller haul. A return of that magnitude strikes me as extremely unlikely, and given the backlash they’ve had from fans in John Coppolella’s first season as general manager, moving the team’s clear top starter for more young pieces wouldn’t sit well with their audience. Verdict: Retain him.
Jeff Todd: As things stand, Teheran has had great results in three of his four full seasons in the majors. He’s young, he racks up innings, and he has an appealing contract. On the other hand, he doesn’t have elite swinging strike rates, isn’t much of a groundball pitcher, and has always outperformed ERA estimators — yes, even in 2015 — which have recently viewed him as a ~4.00 (and change) performer. In large part, then, his value is dependent upon whether one believes that’s sustainable. He’s still a nice piece regardless, and at worst he provides Atlanta with a sturdy mid-rotation piece as it exposes its top prospects to the majors, but I’m actually in favor of looking to sell while the gettin’ is good. Teheran’s value is up, especially with a mediocre set of fellow trade targets and a seemingly barren free agent starter crop coming this winter, and frankly I’m not bullish on Atlanta’s 2017 outlook. Too many things need to go right, and the lackluster overall free agent class may not be conducive to building out a competitive roster for a reasonable price. PR considerations aside, a deal that includes at least a high-quality, advanced position-player prospect makes sense to me, even if a truly premium youngster can’t be had. Verdict: Shop him.
Mark Polishuk: The Braves’ long-stated plan was to return to contention when their new ballpark opens in April 2017. While that timeline may have been pushed back a bit thanks to their terrible record this season, the organization obviously still wants to be competitive sooner rather than later. Even if they wait until 2018 to make a push, that’s still well within the life of Teheran’s contract and the prime of his career. If I’m the Braves, I hang onto Teheran now (barring a Godfather offer from another team, of course) since I’d find myself looking for a Teheran-type of pitcher within a year or two anyway. Verdict: Retain him.
Charlie Wilmoth: Not to straddle the fence, but I think the Braves should strongly consider trading Teheran but keep him if they don’t get a return they like. A rebuilding team should consider trading any veteran starter in the midst of a good year. You never know when a pitcher might lose velocity, get hurt, or decline for other reasons, so keeping Teheran to pitch for a bad team is risky asset management. Teheran and Shelby Miller are different types of pitchers, but Miller’s case demonstrates that principle. Even leaving aside the terrific return the Braves wouldn’t have received if they hadn’t dealt Miller, how bad would it have been for Atlanta if the Braves had kept him and then he had a 2016 season like the one he’s having now with the Diamondbacks? On the other hand, Teheran is only 25 and is under control and cheap through 2020, so he could easily be part of the next good Braves team. Add in that the Braves would surely like to play well next season for the opening of their new ballpark, and there are compelling reasons to keep Teheran around. I’d try to deal him, but if the offers are underwhelming, holding on is reasonable too. Verdict: Hung jury!
Connor Byrne: The crop of starters who are expected to be available prior to the trade deadline looks mostly unappealing, as does the upcoming class of free agents, so the rebuilding Braves should at least shop Teheran. The next several months could serve as the perfect time frame for the Braves to get more for Teheran than he’s worth. If they put Teheran on the block and don’t get a palatable enough offer, then keeping him wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. With his team-friendly contract, Teheran won’t have to perform like much more than a back-end starter to provide value over the next few years, meaning the Braves won’t be in a negative position if they retain him. However, by no means should John Coppolella be so intent on acquiring a young, established major league hitter in return for Teheran that he summarily spurns other offers. Teheran’s only a year removed from a 4.00 ERA season with a below-average 2.34 K/BB ratio. We’re not talking about a Jose Fernandez-esque superstar here; rather, Teheran’s contract and durability are arguably the two best things he has going for him. The Braves shouldn’t need to be “overwhelmed” to trade him, then, even though Coppolella said otherwise last month. Verdict: Shop him.
That’s where we stand, but we’ll also open this one up to our readers with a poll (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users):
The only matchup that I think the braves should accept is the Red Sox. Betts, Bradley, or Shaw + prospects makes the team better. Now, I think it’s about as likely the Red Sox trade Betts as…well it’s not happening but still if the braves don’t get a young star hitter with 20 hr power, keep the pitching in tact.
You’re funny bro
The only realistic pitchers betts would be traded for are sale or gray. If Atlanta wants to throw in freeman and onciarte then Boston might trade him there
Sale probably, gray no.
Betts is untouchable. So quit asking for him in a trade.
Lol, Betts is literally worth TRIPLE Teheran. Betts is a 6 WAR player. Teheran is a 2-3 WAR pitcher.
Betts is worth Teheran+ Swanson. Betts is one of the 10 most valuable players in baseball. Teheran isn’t close to that
Idk if betts is that valuable, but you’re right there’s no way he’s part of a Teheran trade
Borderline top 10 since he is pre arb. I doubt the red sox would do Teheran and Swanson for him though value wise, mookie has well over 100 mil in surplus value himself. The rosiest projection would give Teheran and Swanson 100 mil surplus. But the one player surplus is more valuable than 2.
Deal him. There’s no scenario where they contend for anything but .500 next year and the year after that. Where is the offense going to come from?
The last thing they’ll do is look to FA pitchers. The have a logjam already.
You say it like they should just give him away.
Oh sorry, “shop him”. Better now?
Meadows and McGUire for Teheran ::)
That’s a deal to consider. It fits two needs for the Braves – OF and C.
Stupid we have better pitching in AAA
No u don’t… It’s a good deal but ATL wouldn’t take it. Being as stupid as they are, they would probably ask for more.
“As stupid as they are?” Are we talking about the same front office that is fleecing teams left and right in deals?
I want to see the Braves keep him but you can’t argue with the right return.
Send some feelers out and see if they get overwhelmed. If not keep him. Easy as that.
This is purely media driven BS. Trading this guy makes absolutely no sense. You guys just try to find ways to stir up the rumor mill.
If you’re the Braves you trade veteran contracts that make a difference to teams in a pennant race. You don’t trade away young starting pitchers like Teheran, especially after they just traded away Shelby Miller. Teheran, while not in the upper echelon of starting pitchers, is on his way to being really good and thus is someone you build around.
Trade bullpen pieces, trade your underachieving 1B (Freeman). Teheran is probably the one guy they should definitely hold on to.
It’s analysis/discussion, not citing whispers of industry chatter or something.
You obviously have a viewpoint on it – some of our writers agree with you, others don’t.
Can’t agree with trading Freeman, as he is our only guy in the lineup with pop, and is still fairly young.. I do believe we should keep JT unless we’re blown away with some position players though..
Can’t assume all the young guys will pan out to be TOR type guys. Need to keep the one guy that is pitching well enough to be one of our TOR guys.
We’ve got a boatload of pitching in the minors including the new guys who all are great talents. Ned to move from the minors, and let JT be a mentor for new guys coming up from the farm. Coppy seems to be of the same mindset as he will only trade JT unless his socks are blown off.
So more than likely, JT stays, and we get to see this young team grow with him and Freeman as the lead guys.
The pitching coaches can mentor them. Teheran can bring us something to fill the black holes and C, 3B, or OF.
We already have Wisler, Blair, and Folty, plus guys like Gant and Perez to eat innings. Sims and Jenkins should be coming soon. Then Newcomb, Fried, and Soroka behind them. And another wave of pitching coming up right behind them.
If there’s an emergency we can always sign some reclamation project like Chacin in the offseason.
You mean writers on a baseball rumor site are stirring up the rumor mill? Bastards. Although I am a huge fan of the trading Freeman.
Yeah but Imagine the team we would be sitting on right now if we had traded Jurrjens, Hanson, Minor, Medlen, and Beachy when they were at their peak. Pitching is risky.
None of those guys were around anywhere near the amt of time Teheran has, nor put up similar #. Medley would be the closet but most of his work came from the pen until he hit the rotation and shortly after 2 TJs
I agree, but at their “peaks” the hope was we had a Rays or NYM type rotation forming.
The Braves are trying to get better not worse. Unproven prospects are never a sure thing. The rebuild has to start going upwards at some point. Teheran and wisler are looking to be a pretty good 1-2, and folty looks like he has started to figure things out. They may not even be a WC club next year but you have to keep good pieces around if it makes sense and Teheran tenure and contract with the Braves makes sense to keep him.
Braves nation as much as his hard to hear and Braves management need to her his . Braves are not going to win tell at less 2018 the earliest . I’m long time Braves fan . They need to trade Tehran if not this season this off season with way pitching is premium ex specially good pitching as he is . And pitcher have time table before the go bad like fruit . There great when there fresh but once they go they go bad quick . I like my trades with Indians , Pirates , Yankees , Red Sox , Mariners , Rangers , Giants , Astros , and O’s all could happen .
Markakis 1 HR, 34 RBI, Freeman 9 HR, 18 RBI. just thought i’d throw that up.
Should’ve dealt Markakis to he O’s this spring (though it may have been an average offer). I’d go back there if it is on the table.
Not with Kim and trumbo hitting. Too late Markakis is immovable.
Only way i see Teheran get traded is IF the Braves can get a package at least as good as Shelby Miller’s deal. Teheran is close to Miller, and the market is way less loaded than what last winter was, got to get a package of a premium pitching prospect and another good prospect as well as a young controllable position player with at least 500 big league at bats with loads of appeal. The positional player and prospects have to have different skillsets to what they already have in their farm stocks. It could happen, but there is no need to expect it, it just depends how desperate other teams get at the deadline.
(As a buyer) I hate the ‘price’ you started with, but (as a seller) I am sure this is where any conversations are starting
Grrrr
Teheran & Vizcaino for Benintendi & Devers. Any takers? lol
I am not sold on Devers, although Benintendi SHOULD be an excellent major league hitter in a year or two.
But to be honest although in many eyes Benintendi and Devers should be a “fair” trade but it doesn’t accomplish what the braves really need or expressed a desire for. In my opinion (for what little it is worth) the braves would turn that trade down.
Tracye Thompson to me seems like the type of young major league ready player that would appear to meet the criteria the braves expressed (in a package not one on one for Teheran). Those type of players though are the very type however teams are loathe to deal away.
I think Teheran is a quality pitcher (but not a true ace) and his contract is very team friendly in my opinion. I’d hate to see Teheran dealt but I think it absolutely should happen if the braves get the right deal (and only then).
Fair for who? That would be a huge overpay by the red sox.
I don’t see BOS trading even Benintendi for him.
Uhhhh….. Seems fair I guess. Don’t think the Braves have much interest in Devers though. Maybe Beni, Roudes, and Espinoza for the pair.
As a Dodgers fan that makes no sense. The primary issue is the offense and that creates a bigger hole than it fixes. I take my chances on them calling up DeLeon and Montas. Then bide the time for Ryu, Wood and McCarthy. Tehran for the team that is constructed is not worth Thompson.
I was talking about a Thompson TYPE player, not necessarily him, although I certainly wouldn’t complain if the Dodgers dealt him to the Braves as part of a package for Teheran. My point (which I expressed above) is that Thompson the criteria of a young controllable major league hitter similar in value and experience to Teheran.. That isn’t a simple minor league prospect. who is a couple years away. As I said above a Thompson type player is a type player that other teams are loathe to get rid of for obvious reasons.
In the Dodger’s case though don’t forget that they have Puig returning from the DL very shortly.
Puig has little barring on the Dodgers outfielders as Ethier is no where close to returning and is still a platoon guy. Puig has yet to show he can hit consistently. It also wouldn’t fit in the Dodgers plans to trade a guy like Thompson. I think the braves end up keeping Tehran because they won’t receive the package they want.
It’s hard to find guys that can both hit and play defense. Although I can see a team like Colorado making a play.
I voted keep him. You can’t just go get pitchers like him these days. As Mark said, if the Braves subtract Teheran from their rotation, before long they’ll be trying to find another starter anyway.
I highly doubt freeman is getting traded. Is he having a down yr? Yes, track record shows he is much better than his numbers this year! Unless the Braves get great value (based on their scouts opinion and market value) Teheran will be a Brave! The thought that he isn’t a good 2 (not great) or very good 3 in a rotation is absurd! Career 3.37era avg. 212inning and 33 starts/yr.
If a trade makes sense do it, if not keep him.
Had they been offered anything the past couple years worth discussing? I would just think if they wanted to trade him they would have done it already
Based on what I have read this past offseason teams kicked the tires on Julio. But I would imagine they were trades based on last years numbers (which were inflated by a rough fist half) Braves know his value and aren’t going to sell low on him…
Soler for Teheran was an off season discussion. They asked for contreras or torres as well and were told no.
Ah yes I remember. .and I was against that trade
I was for soler for him straight up. Soler probably settles in as 130wRC+ guy but with atrocious d and baserunning that negate too much of that value. I’m not a Hammel guy and felt he could return an excellent bullpen piece.
Pretty good starting point (soler for Teheran) … Although I am sure the braves will want far more
Perhaps soler candelario would be ‘fair’, but in this market anyone acquiring pitching will have to overpay. The scary question is ‘how much’
(Soler ‘plus’ candelario)
It’s kind of crazy to keep Teheran. I mean sure if you don’t like the offers you can wait until next year but by the time they need a guy like that it’s 2019, he’s making 11 mil and he’s blocking the area of depth in the system. Not one argument for holding him long term makes sense to be frank.
If they keep him it makes sense because everyone not named Wisler or Folty is unproven at this point. And even those 2 are still questionable at this point. So let’s say they keep him, next year have a better year with wisler and Folty and Teheran plus maybe a couple other guys fighting over the 4 and 5 spots, perez, banuelos or (enter one of many prospects here). Swanson gets called up, Markakais and Freeman don’t have down years, ender returns to form….obviously a lot of things would need to head in the right direction but that’s why you keep him.
Say you trade him…ok now let’s say the team does ok next year yet you are now stuck like the Braves of the mid 2000s trying to find that #1 guy . The prospects you have are all unsure things, many have had TJ surgery, and some may even be traded for position players at that point. So now to get that guy you have to sign the best possible FA (a la Derek lowe …) or trade from your depth to aquire…why do any of that when you already have a guy with a team friendly deal that is having a career year and has a pretty decent track record already?
Worst case scenario, some teams pitcher goes out or they need that one extra guy to get them to the WS and so they pay what you want or over pay what you want for him.
Why do they need “proven” starters on last place team? There is no return to form for Markakis he is a below average player. So your plan is to give up value in case every player plays out of their minds, they have no injuries, and both the nats and mets back up?
Marlins and Phillies would also need to back up.
I was trying to be generous chester, he said in a comment above they will compete for the wild card.
You totally mis read and/or mis interpreted what I said.
In my comment above I actually stated they might not even be a WC team, and Markakais had a good year last year and was the Braves best player until late.
They need ‘proven’ starters for the coming seasons, not this year. You make is sound like if your team isn’t good they should never have any good players , how does any team expect to become good? You have to build around someone and Julio and Freeman are the current guys.
I think there are some here (most notably the two you are arguing with) who just want to see Teheran traded for an underwhelming return so they can act all smug about it and throw it back in the face of Braves fans who they claim have been overvaluing him this whole time.
You are right though, at some point if you are rebuilding you stop trading away major league talent for prospects. Though I actually do think the Braves should trade Teheran, but not for only prospects. It would need to be similar to the Miller deal in the sense that they would need a major league bat (ala Inciarte) in the deal. If no team is willing to do that, then keep him and see if any would do it in the offseason. If not then at least you have your opening day starter figured out for 2017. 🙂
Braves 2015 don’t waste your time with theo2016! Dude is always trolling.. Thinks his whole rotation is better and more valuable than Julio! Yet if you compare all their 1st 5 season in mlb only Hendricks matches Julio (identical era w/ similar numbers and he has only pitched in 3 season)
I agree with your thoughts though.. They will get what they deem as great value for the team or keep him and add impact players via FA..
Career era-
Hendricks- 87
Teheran- 90
That’s your park adjusted era… Its better to be lower btw 😉
???
Era-
It is a stat that park and league adjusts era. 100 is average. The lower the better.
Just use normal stats please. Super in depth stats don’t really mean anything.
Steve where is Jeffs chat?
I couldn’t do it yesterday … in the middle of moving. Actually, I’m working from a hotel right next to Kauffman Stadium right now, mid-drive!
Safe travels Jeff. If it wasn’t 90 miles away, I would buy a round on your way through Illinois.
Would Shaw, Owens, Marco Hernandez, Rusney and some cash for Teheran and Markakis work?
Soxfan1- I think that is very close to the value Braves have for Teheran. I would think they would want Benintendo, not Rusney and prob. Wouldn’t ask for cash. Not sure redsox would trade shaw though.. (Proven at mlb level). Pedrioa shows no sign of slowing down, would think Moncado over shaw (if Braves picked up his full contract) might be more expendable.. I do think Markakis would hit well in Boston! Doubles off the wall all day.
Does Markakis go opposite field that much??
Well the cash and Rusney for Markakis would be an advantage for the Sox, but Rusney might have a higher ceiling than Markakis, who doesn’t really have much value in Atlanta.
I don’t think it would be a bad idea to sell high on Shaw. We can move Holt to third and Devers should be ready by around the super two cutoff date of next year.
None of the top five are moving here, so Benitendi, Moncada and Devers are untouchable.
Lol that wouldn’t happen. Sorry man. Although the value might actually equal up, ATL’s FO wouldn’t trade for non top 100 prospects. Without Beni in the talks, they just hang up.
Just wanted to let you know that you linked to the wrong Jose Fernandez.
As a Braves fan I believe the 2017 contention is a pipe dream based off of current results. Most likely we will be bad again next year then MAYBE in 2018 we can be competitive as in .500 record. So I think we need to try to get some talent more in line with 2019-20 timeline, especially hitting.
If Boston is looking for another pitcher I think they are the best matchup. They have bats in the minors and probably wouldn’t mind some of our younger pitching as well. So I propose;
Braves trade:
Julio Teheran
Arodys Vizcaino
Touki Toussant, Max Fried, or Lucas Sims (6, 10, 11) in our deep system on MLB.com
BoSox trade:
Andrew Benentendi
Travis Shaw
Nick Longhi or Austin Rei
Braves need some bats in their system and get their MLB ready player in Shaw. They also get a top 25 position prospect in Benintendi. Rei gives them a catcher to try to develop or Longhi a solid bat (not a lot of power) w/out a real position (both guys around 20 rank in the Red Sox system).
Sox get Teheran and his prime years lengthy contract. Vizzy gives them an elite, young, closer/setup guy to pair with Kimbrel, and even let Craig walk or trade if Boston struggles. Any of the 3 pitchers are legit TOR type prospects albeit with risk (Toukki & Sims control, Fried TJS recovery but pitching now).
Braves should start trading some of their MiLB pitching for bats and this is a start.
Swap Castillo and cash for Markakis too and you got yourself a deal. When Carson Smith comes back next year, that will be a dominant bullpen.
Nope. Terrible trade.
It hinges on Shaw I think.If you think he will stay at 3rd and continue to hit .280-.300 with some pop you are giving up a slightly more valuable Teheran for an upgrade from one of our MANY top pitching prospects for a legit hitting one.
You aren’t getting a Benintendi without giving up something valuable to us. Dombrowski and TriJohn are not idiots like Stewart. I love our prospects and Julio & Viz but I sign off on this to get some legit bats. I should also say I think Shaw is for real and will play in the majors a long time.
By terrible trade he means that’s a realistic proposal and not the ridiculous overpayments that are constantly posted here.
Wow you aren’t gonna rip on this trade even coming from an Atlanta fan? Im shocked. You seem to hate every Braves proposal lol, no insult intended
I might tweak it a little bit and also ask Boston for some of their J2 IFA slot money too since it will help our luxary tax when we go over and Im pretty sure they cant sign anyone of significance because of penalties anyways
I tried to be fair both ways. Im sure ATL would willingly package Kakes if you took his contract for a lotto ticket toss in.
Which pitcher do you want?
I wasn’t sure if I should include your other 2 1B prospects as options of the 3rd part of the Boston trade because they have much more raw power but frankly I think Longhi might end up the best overall hitter, with gap power. Im not really enamoured with Rei but he has upside and ATL minors catching is a cesspool.
Ya we wouldnt take on Castillos contract its too much for ATL and lasts until 2020 which would really affect our J2 spending and long term financial flexibility. Kakes contract we would like to unload but its not large or long enough to be a major hindrance, and he is at least an MLB average warm body that has a lot of fans that like him.
If you wanna work out a Castillo/Olivera trade we can work on something maybe.
And who plays 3rd for the red sox in this scenario? 3b is holts worst position and the value of him is him moving around. The sox aren’t trading off the ml roster it doesn’t make sense. Rei has a good floor and won’t be moved. I could see them being interested in Sims despite the braves rushing him.
Benitendi, swihart, dubon, josh ockimmey for teheran, vizcaino, Simms.
Kung fu pandoval duh!
But in all honesty Moncada can play anywhere on the infield. A trade of this magnitude may just make the time right for the call up. He is ready IMO. If you arent comfortable use Holt there if Yoan struggles or trade for a rental like Martin Prado, although I cant remember if he has another year with the fish.
I could see the Braves having interest in Ockimmey instead of Rei but it would probably involve a bigger plan moving Freeman because Ockimmey is pretty much 1B only. It wont replace a Shaw though. I dont think Swihart can stick at catcher and that saps his value immensely. Plus he wont cut it as the MLB proven bat for ATL. You could replace Shaw with Boegarts or even Betts but I doubt you wanna go there.
Also, Simms was hardly rushed. He should be in AAA anyways but the bus crash affected quite a few Braves progression. He was dominating before it and it took a little while to get back in form. They challenged him by moving him up to AAA this year and while not always consistent, dominates when hes on. He hasn’t been up to the bigs ever and at his age I would hardly call it rushing his development but you can call it that if you think so.
But who to play at third is a problem you guys will have to figure out if you want this package. Oh and we will need some IFA slot money for this J2 as well since you cant really use it anyways.
Simms was certainly rushed. You don’t promote guys walking that many players.
Super lopsided the Sox’s way. Only good player going back to ATL is Benintendi. Braves need to be absolutely blown away to trade not only Teheran but with The Vizzinator thrown in also, ain’t gonna happen.
Dude…you are either a Boston fan…OR…..you hate The Braves! There is NO FREAKING WAY Braves Management would EVER make the trade you proposed!
Here is the ONLY TRADE that makes sense/is far for both teams:
1. Boston gets Julio Teheran
2. Atlanta gets Benintendi, Moncada, and Swihart!
What Boston gets: 1. A 25 year old INNINGS EATER, durable, healthy, strikes out almost 9 hitters per 9 innings. Can go 7-8 innings (on a good team…and with the DH, doesn’t have to worry about coming out of games early). He has the 2nd most wins of any active pitcher under 25 and under…DESPITE playing on a BAD TEAM the past two years! On a team like Boston that can score..Teheran would ABSOLUTELY FLOURISH. He wouldn’t have to dominate, lol! And LASTLY….his contract is the steal of the century, lol! He is only making $3.1 mil in 2016 (meaning that if you guys get him before the trade deadline, you’ll only be paying him a little less than half that)…..$6.3 mil in 2017…..$8 mil in 2018…..$11 mil in 2019….and a $12 mil team option in 2020 (before he turns 30). If you guys were to try and sign a free agent who had Teheran’s abilities….you’d be paying him WELL OVER $100 mil!!!!!!! At least $20-$25 mil a year over the next 4 years. Instead with Teheran…you’ll be paying him A TOTAL of almost $39 mil for the rest of 2016..and the next 4 years! WOW, lol. The savings of his contract…can be used to improve the team in other areas!
Sure, Boston would be giving up A LOT of young talent who are projected to be very good ML players. However, they are just that: PROSPECTS! Many a prospect has flamed out. That’s why The Braves need several of Boston’s best prospects, which fit nicely with The Braves because we are weak at 3rd base and outfield power and catching power! Boston can afford to give up Benintendi, Moncada and Swihart……because Teheran would team up VERY NICELY in between Price and Wright to form a formidable top of the 3 man rotation come playoff time!
Boston gets a #2 starter…The Braves gets some much needed young power hitters to build an offense around.
If Boston doesn’t do this trade…..other teams like Texas and Los Angeles…who have strong farm systems…..will make the Braves an offer. And don’t forget The Yankees….who, if they feel fit to make a move for Teheran…has young talent in place to make a trade happen. However, I like what Boson has to offer, because they fit nicely with what we need. The question is if Boston is up to the task!
As far as Arodys Vizcaino…..if Boston wants him, they will need to include Travis Shaw and another pitching prospect (perhaps a lefty we can put in the bullpen). If not…then there are teams that need a closer.
The Braves are dealing from a position of strength/patience here. It is MORONS like you who want to give away the farm when making your INSANE trade proposals.
I took the time to CEARLY EXPLAIN TO YOU why your proposal was WHACKED….while mine makes TOTAL SENSE. Sure..it’s pricey…but FAIR!
Jeff Todd makes the most sense. His peripherals show that he’s simply not as good a pitcher as his ERA suggests, and his value *is* going to come down if they hold on to him for too long. They’re also being silly if they think they have anything beyond a remote chance of contending before 2018. Don’t refuse to build your future based on the 1 in 50 chance that you’ll have a quality team next year.
I completely agree with Sabremetrics but if a sabremetrics is consistently outperformed then we have to except at least the POSSIBILITY that that metric is not a good tool to measure that player. I admit those pitchers are few, but Teheran is making a really good case for himself. His first four full seasons Teheran has outperformed his FIP
Other pitchers that outperformed FIP year after year was Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and Al Leiter. As two of those are hall of fame Braves pitchers you can imagine FIP doesn’t scare them as much as others.
Thanks for the round table guys, nice feature. Yes I am a Braves fan, but the next one on Hill, Gray, or whoever, good to hear all input.
Why are the Red Sox the only team being talked about here? Astros/Rangers are much better fits. Gallo and Brinson for Teheran, Markakis and Vizcaino. Bregman, Fisher and Musgrove for the same -Markakis Norris.
I think Boston has more depth and could afford to let a top position player go.
I think Texas needs Gallo on their team more than not having him, And Bregman is not the guy I want headlining a deal just personal preference. Now if you are talking Springer Im listeneing.
Those aren’t being talked about because those proposals are both ridiculously one sided.
Braves fans need to stop bringing up Markakis. He has been worth 6.7 fwar, and 8.5 bwar the last 5 and a half years! That’s a below average player, on the wrong side of 30, thats owed 30 mil over the next 2.6 years. Any deal you try and include him in you are adding negative value.
You want an Astros package?
Kemp, cameron, tucker(kyle) for teheran
That’s Kemp and 2 top 100 prospects. The thing is no one is giving up a top 40 prospect in a deal for just teheran and the Astros bullpen is solid so no need for vizcaino.
Rangers-
Deshields, cordell, demiritte, leclerc, Andy ibanez for Teheran. This is a quantity package. Leclerc is a future closer and deshiekds has had some no success which gives the package a solid floor, between the other 3, There is likely 1 at least average player there.
The Braves aren’t going to trade Teheran for 15 nobody’s! 2-3 top level prospects. That’s it. Cameron is a bust and we all know HOU isn’t trading Tucker. And who said in a braves fan? I’m actually a Twins fan. I just have respect for what ATL’s FO has been doing over the last two seasons. And I know Coppy and Hart aren’t going to trade Teheran unless they are absolutely blown away. So stop undervaluing a great, yes I said great, pitcher. Keep in mind, in 2011 top 3 prospects went Trout, Harper, Teheran. He is an outstandingly talented pitcher who is finally putting it all together.
IN a three team trade Brave send Blair Hunter Cervenka and Daniel Castro to the Brewers The Brewers send Luchroy then the Red sox send Moncada Vazquez and Stephen Wright and the Braves send Teheran and Ian Krol
the red sox get Luchroy and the braves get Moncada Vazqyez and Wright
The only way I see Julio going to the Red Sox is if they get totally desperate. I don’t think he is an AL East pitcher.
I can see the Dodgers making a move for Joc Pedrson, Holmes and Barnes.
I think that is a perfect fit for Julio as well as the Braves and Dodgers.
It wouldn’t make sense on both account as Pederson is by far the best cf they have. Thompson isn’t very good in cf. The braves also have inciarte who doesn’t hold as much value outside of cf. defensive metrics haven’t necessarily beard it out yet but Thompson is better on a corner. Holmes and Barnes kind of make sense but I don’t think the Dodgers have the MLB ready talent they would be willing to part with to obtain Tehran.
Or how about Julio to the Mariners for Zunino, Paxton, DJ Peterson & prospect ?????
Julio slips in nicely behind Felix & Iwakuma and ahead of Walker and Karns. He is cost controlled so they would be buying into future seasons as well as the immediate pennant race. He is a flyball pitcher and would be pitching in one of the biggest stadiums in MLB.
Now the Braves would be getting a C that was pushed to fast to soon and has seemed to have turned it around with the development time that was desperately needed. They get a LHSP that was a top prospect and has been solid in the time he has been healthy and in the majors. And they get a RH power prospect corner Inf/OF bat that is not to far from being MLB ready. In the prospect I think a top 5 wouldn’t be to much to ask but would realistically accept a 5-8 prospect. I don’t know tell me Brave fans what you think before the stat geeks rip it apart.
The braves already have the best Peterson brother in Dustin. He is younger and is out hitting his brother easily at the same level.
I’m a Cubs fan and from a fan that recently went through the rebuilding process I can say that Braves fans should sit back cheer for their team and trade everything that isn’t nailed down. The Cubs traded Jeff Samardzija and got a nice haul for him. Let’s face it Braves fans next year would still see you sitting behind the Mets and Nationals in that division. Not to mention a Phillies team near the end of their own rebuild. You are better off getting a load of top prospects and one young MLB bat now and going full rebuild. The Cubs did this and is sucked to be in the middle of it but now they are the best team in baseball. Also the draft picks the team will have the next 2 years with build that system into a powerhouse for years. Then add a big 2018 free agent class and you have the potential for a loaded team.
As Coppollela said, the time of trading established players for prospects is done. The Braves have already created a consensus top 3 farm system. In Keith Law’s opinion, the top system. Now it’s time to work at the major league level. If Coppo sticks to his guns, unless he gets an outrageous prospect offer, he will only trade Teheran for major league assets.
Hang on to Julio for now. While the return my not be great, if Bud Norris has a handful more decent starts, you might get a decent piece or two for him.
I’m in the trade him camp because these first two rounds Braves haven’t picked up the bats they needed. I understand the concept of picking for value but when you have a Braves system devoid of impact bats, that should increase their value at least to you.
I also noted that Jeff Todd made an argument with FIP. I am a fan of sabremetrics but I imagine FIP doesn’t scare the Braves all that much. That’s because Greg Maddox and Tom Glavine routinely outperformed FIP. Now so is Teheran. I don’t know that Teheran is an ace but when a pitcher consistently outperforms a sabremetrics we may have to simply conclude that that metric doesn’t do a good job of measuring that pitcher.
trivia- who was the Braves manager when Bad Henry broke Babe Ruths hr record ???
What it comes down to is if Coppy and Hart believe they actually have a chance to be competitive next season. If they do they have to sign a couple free agents in positions of need (3B,C,SP) and make a couple trades (power hitting OF & RP).
I think the right 4-5 players brought in could make this team competitive.
After reading through THE PLETHORA of halfway decent…then HALFWAY INSANE ASYLUM trade proposals, lol…..I decided to post what I feel is a TOUGH, but FAIR trade for both Atlanta and Boston concerning Julio Teheran….AND I explained WHY!
Here is the ONLY TRADE that makes sense/is fair for both teams:
1. Boston gets Julio Teheran
2. Atlanta gets Benintendi, Moncada, and Swihart!
What Boston gets: 1. A 25 year old INNINGS EATER, durable, healthy, strikes out almost 9 hitters per 9 innings. Can go 7-8 innings (on a good team…and with the DH, doesn’t have to worry about coming out of games early). He has the 2nd most wins of any active pitcher under 25 and under…DESPITE playing on a BAD TEAM the past two years! On a team like Boston that can score..Teheran would ABSOLUTELY FLOURISH. He wouldn’t have to dominate, lol! And LASTLY….his contract is the steal of the century, lol! He is only making $3.1 mil in 2016 (meaning that if you guys get him before the trade deadline, you’ll only be paying him a little less than half that)…..$6.3 mil in 2017…..$8 mil in 2018…..$11 mil in 2019….and a $12 mil team option in 2020 (before he turns 30). If you guys were to try and sign a free agent who had Teheran’s abilities….you’d be paying him WELL OVER $100 mil!!!!!!! At least $20-$25 mil a year over the next 4 years. Instead with Teheran…you’ll be paying him A TOTAL of almost $39 mil for the rest of 2016..and the next 4 years! WOW, lol. The savings of his contract…can be used to improve the team in other areas!
Sure, Boston would be giving up A LOT of young talent who are projected to be very good ML players. However, they are just that: PROSPECTS! Many a prospect has flamed out. That’s why The Braves need several of Boston’s best prospects, which fit nicely with The Braves because we are weak at 3rd base and outfield power and catching power! Boston can afford to give up Benintendi, Moncada and Swihart……because Teheran would team up VERY NICELY in between Price and Wright to form a formidable top of the 3 man rotation come playoff time!
Boston gets a #2 starter, especially important come PLAYOFF TIME!……The Braves gets some much needed young power hitters to build an offense around….along with Dansby Swanson, Ozzie Albies and Freedie Freeman (if we keep him) and Ender Incierate (if we keep him as well) in the outfield.
If Boston doesn’t do this trade…..other teams like Texas and Los Angeles…who have strong farm systems…..will make the Braves an offer. And don’t forget The Yankees….who, if they feel fit to make a move for Teheran…has young talent in place to make a trade happen. However, I like what Boson has to offer, because they fit nicely with what we need. The question is if Boston is up to the task!
As far as Arodys Vizcaino…..if Boston wants him, they will need to include Travis Shaw and another pitching prospect (perhaps a lefty we can put in the bullpen). If not…then there are teams that need a closer.
The Braves are dealing from a position of strength/patience here. If we don’t like what we hear…..it isn’t like Teheran is going to hurt our payroll, lol! He’s making $3.1 mil for ALL OF 2016…and only $6.3 for all of 2017. Easily affordable….considering he’s our ACE, lol! But here’s the thing, the more he pitches well for us…the more you guys (and the other teams…REALLY WANT HIM), lol!
I took the time to CEARLY EXPLAIN TO YOU why the various BS proposals were WHACKED….while mine makes TOTAL SENSE. Sure..it’s pricey…but FAIR!