Giants GM Bobby Evans suggested yesterday that his organization is looking hard at relievers, in an appearance on the podcast of ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (audio link). Perhaps unsurprisingly, then, the organization is said to be “blanketing” the market for bullpen arms, according to ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (Twitter link).
The Phillies and Brewers are among the rival teams being eyed by San Francisco scouts, per Crasnick’s report. It appears that the Giants are paying particular attention to Philly’s Jeanmar Gomez and David Hernandez, as well as Milwaukee’s Will Smith and Jeremy Jeffress. All of those players have featured on MLBTR’s breakdown of the top trade candidates, though only Jeffress has consistently cracked the ranking itself.
Notably, Crasnick adds that the Giants are mostly “lingering” in the market for Yankees’ relief aces Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller. The expectation seems to be that other National League contenders — namely, the Cubs and Nationals — are likely to be bigger players for those two high-octane lefties.
Evans had hinted that there’s a lot of demand to contend with on the market. That was a significant factor in the team’s decision to rely on some younger arms this year, he suggested. “We didn’t realize that half of baseball would be also looking for the same relievers and that the market would be so limited,” he said of the winter’s free agent market, “but that’s where we are.”
The San Francisco GM went on to note that his organization will not just be looking to build out depth in its relief corps. “We have a pretty strong bullpen in the sense of guys that are pretty hard to replace,” he said, “so you’re really trying to replace one guy, and we’ve got to be sure it’s an upgrade. So we won’t be getting a reliever just to get a reliever.”
Evans also touched upon the idea of adding an outfielder, which has often been noted as a possible need. With Hunter Pence nearing a return, the veteran executive indicated that the position isn’t a high priority. It seems that a depth addition could be considered, but isn’t viewed as essential.
Getting a power outfielder needs to be a high priority. Pence could come back and could not, the offense is on the decline and I have serious concerns the lineup is not going to keep first place through the dog days of summer. Jay Bruce or CarGo would make this even year magical.
The Giants have plenty of OFs, and Pence will be back soon besides. Plus, they likely want no part of CarGo – a lifetime .257/.313/.438 road hitter who would be moving from the best power park in baseball (Coors) to one of the worst (AT&T), and who’s owed $20 mil next year. The bullpen is the logical target, especially since the Giants’ top three relievers (Casilla, Romo and Lopez) could all be free agents after this year.
cargo is an absolute stud and would be the best hitter on this team. why not get him and a reliever. hes worth every cent of 20mil.
The Giants will make the smart move and get Will Smith. While everyone focuses on the Cubs and Nats bidding each other up for Chapman they will quietly grab the most effective lefty available (assuming Miller stays put, which ultimately I think he does) while paying way less for a guy who still has 3 years of control left. As a Brewer fan I just hope they can get get Chris Shaw in return and hopefully solve our long term 1B problem.
As a Giants fan, I love this idea. How about Shaw, Juan Gregorio and Andrew Suarez for Smith?
great thinking. giants always make moves like that and they always tend to work
What does everyone think of a Red Sox Brewers trade
Red Sox get
– Jonathan Lucroy
– Will Smith
– Jeremy Jeffress
Brewers get
– Rafael Devers
– Blake Swihart
– Pat Light
– Luis A Basabe
– Henry Owens
That trade would interest me as a Red Sox fan
not nearly enough to get lucroy, Smith and jeffress. for the red Sox to get that group it would have to headline at least benetendi and devers (probably Travis too) plus at least 3-4 mid to high level prospects. brewers don’t have to move any of them so why would they. offer needs to blow them away, frankly I don’t think the red Sox have the prospects too do it for those three. rangers might be the only competitive team with a strong enough system for the brewers to party with three excellent controllable players.
Owens and Swihart are both former top 20 prospects in all of baseball, Devers sits in the top 15 right now, Light is a year away from replacing one of those relievers as a late power arm and Basabe is an interesting talent. Add Shaw or Travis as he suggested below and I think it’s close. They probably end up with a better haul overall if they ship them separately, but I wouldn’t mind that too much.
Keyword – Former
And when Swihart was there he was a catcher full time. Is he catching anymore or is he playing in the OF now ?
Former because he no longer counts as a prospect. If Swihart were still in the minors he’d still be a highly rated prospect at 24. No guarantee any of these guys that are still prospects turn into anything. At least with Swihart you pretty much know what you are getting. The Brewers could afford to try the move back to catcher and work on his defense. They have nothing to lose, unlike Boston who can’t afford the mistakes behind the plate in a pennant chase.
Why does everyone think that swihart couldn’t catch that’s why they moved him to the outfield. That’s not it they moved him to the outfield they moved him because they wanted his bat in the lineup and Vasquez is an elite defensive catcher
Interesting. I think would depend a lot on how the Brewers feel about Owens, who has not overly impressed the last 2 years after his high billing. For Lucroy alone they would want Devers + Light at the minimum. That leaves Swihart, Basabe, and Owens for Smith and Jeffress and I’m not sure that’s enough. Swihart has questions after being pretty awful behind the plate last year and if he has to move to left full time that minimizes the value of his bat.
Could always add Sam Travis or Travis shaw plus some low level minor leaguers
You add either Travis or Shaw to that and as a Brewer fan I walk away pretty happy, Basabe, Owens, and Light all carry some risk, but the other 3 would make it worth taking the chance that at least 1 or 2 of them pan out. It instantly turns our bullpen from a strength to an absolute joke, but that could be addressed later.
thats in the realm of reality unlike alot i seem to see here.
doesnt seem Red Sox have faith in Owens, and they shouldnt with his lack of control, but a team like Milwaukee that can just throw him out there without pressure like he’d face in Boston would be a good situation.
If it seems like it’s in the realm of reality to you, as a Red Sox fan, then it suggests it might be bad deal for the other side.
In this case, I don’ think it’s anywhere close. The Brewers are apparently looking for 1-2 top 100 prospects just for Lucroy plus a lotto, 1 top prospect for Smith plus a lotto, and 3 lotto prospects for Jeffress. Devers is the only top 100 prospect listed in this proposal, so I think it’s pretty clearly below what it would take to acquire them. I think you’re right that Devers would NEED to be included in that deal though. 1) Owens has been alarming recently, so I doubt there’s a lot of interest from other clubs right now, 2) I don’t know if they have any interest in a 25 year old AAA pitcher in Light, 3) they don’t have a pressing need for Swihart and he’s already accrued MLB service time which diminishes value for a heavily rebuilding team, 4) but Basabe seems really interesting and a good candidate for the Brewers to be interested in,
Devers is the only top 100 prospect, but Swihart was a top 25 before being called up and still has 5 years of control left, Owens was a top 15-20 prospect who has developed control issues but still has 5 years of control left if they think they can fix him, Light has been great since being converted to the bullpen and is one of the top rated relievers in many mid season reports, Basabe is a nice prospect despite being just outside the top 100 and if they would add Sam Travis I think it makes it close.
I guess I’m making assumptions on the types of players Stearns would look at in this type of trade based on the other moves he’s made over the last 9 months or so. He’s always targeting lower level, high ceiling guys. I don’t think an MLB ready catcher, a borderline MLB ready reliever, and a former top SP prospect who can’t seem to get right fits his MO. I just can’t see them all as big pieces to a trade for the players suggested above. Even Devers is slotted in at 41 on Baseball America.
You might be entirely correct, for some reason I just can’t see it based on his track record.
At some point he has to get guys that can play. He claims that the target is 3-4 years until they want to be competitive again and if he keeps trading for guys who are 19 and 4-5 years out it doesn’t fit the timeline. Hader, Arcia, Phillips, Clark, Lopez, etc will be up and ready in a year or two, if they can add pieces around them like Devers, Swihart, Shaw and Basabe then the lineup could be pretty good with guys like Villar and Braun (maybe Santana if he pans out) still around.
I understand that he likes young, high ceiling guys, but how many of them ever pan out? Maybe 1/3? At this point I like the young talent they have in their system (Nottingham, Diaz, Gatewood, Lara, Orimoyle, etc) and would like to see them focus on getting in some MLB ready guys who can have some experience by the time the kids all get up.
Don’t get me wrong, I wouldn’t go any less than the 5 years of control that Swihart and Owens still have left though.
I think that’s a really fair point. You will need to restock the farm with guys that have less risk as they’re further along the pipeline. I think I’m still pretty firm in my position of what I expect Stearns to target, but I completely see where you’re coming from. I think you might be able to get MLB ready guys for trade chips that aren’t as valuable as the three that are being discussed now.
With how much payroll flexibility they will inevitably have in a few years, I expect Mark A to be pretty ready to go mental in free agency as he sees the returns from his/fans’ patience over the next couple seasons. I think I see them filling the roster with some signings to plug holes where prospects have failed. It’s been fun talking about it though! You obviously know your shit and that’s always better than the alternative. It sounds like we don’t necessarily see eye to eye on our expectations but I really appreciate the back and forth.
I think you make some great points and I like the idea of acquiring some talent a little further along the pipeline to round out the higher levels of the system. I wonder if those guys can be had for lesser trade chips, though (not necessarily a guy like Swihart, but a controllable, young, serviceable talent). While we have a few desirable pieces, I still think Stearns will focus on lower levels (despite how often they don’t pan out) to make sure we have guys coming up through 2020-2022. I think you’re right with the farm already being in pretty decent shape, but I also expect Mark A to push and go a little mental in free agency once he sees the returns from his/fans’ patience over the next couple years. Swihart, Devers, and Basabe I can totally see in a deal. I don’t see the same value in Light and Owens right now, though.
I appreciate the back and forth! You obviously know your stuff and it’s always fun to hear another perspective that has been clearly thought out. I don’t mean to dismiss anything you’ve suggested, I hope it didn’t come across that way.
I agree with jesbo787 this is an extremely light package for all three of those guys. In the offseason closers were getting 2 top 100 prospects and change and though Smith isn’t a closer Fangraphs had him listed as the 8th best reliever coming into the season so it’s not like he came out of no where. He got hurt early so obviously that hurt him but he’s been pretty damn good since coming out. Even if he’s half of what Kimbrel and Giles are he’s worth at least 1 top 100 prospect by himself. And Jeffress as well who has been pretty lights out. So at the very least you’re looking at 3 top 100 prospects and then 3 high upside guys. But the Brewers don’t want to bundle their guys up in trades from all the rumors I here anyway.
I do however disagree who the lower level high high ceiling guys he targets. For what he’s traded so far, and that has not been any substantial piece, he’s targeted the lower level high ceiling prospects. Because you’re not going to get top 100 guys for K rod, Hill, Rogers etc. So I’m sure the choice was either take a lower level high ceiling prospect or take a triple A guy who if everything goes well will be a 5th starter at best. So he chose to take the risk. This is how the Astros built their farm as well. They scout the lower minor leagues significantly more than the rest of the MLB because thats where they think they can find the diamonds in the rough types. And this is what Stearns is bringing over to Milwaukee. Also I assure you if we trade Lucroy, the prospects will be significant.
I think we’re actually closer to the same page that I might have signaled in my earlier posts. Blue chip prospects like Devers, although being only 19 years old, seems like exactly the type of player Stearns would demand in return. I don’t necessarily mean pure lotto tickets coming back to MKE, but guys that are great bets to pan out and also in the lower levels of the system. I think that’s part of the reason why none of us expect them to package more than 2 of the Brewers’ pieces in a trade — it’s rare to have several of those types of players in any one system. Getting one or two MLB ready players I can definitely see, but I think the real value will be targeting a guy like Devers (or Anderson Espinoza in the Pomeranz trade). I expect a significant return for Lucroy, too. I just expect at least a couple big pieces to be in A or AA.
Also even though sending 3-4 top 100 prospects and then some to the Brewers for all of those guys might be fair, it would seem nearly impossible to me that it would happen. Because it would deplete the Sox’s farm system. They would go from one of the best farm systems to one of the worst. No way they do that. Which is why its extremely rare to see trades like that unless one of the players is a salary relief dump. Now I could see like Lucroy and someone like Torres packaged together but Lucroy with Smith, Jeffress, no way. But I also understand its a message board and it fun to do hypotheticals so whatever I guess.
You’re right, it’s all hypothetical as a trade like this would probably never really go down. I also don’t see Jeffress fetching anywhere near what the Brewers reportedly want. He’s been the benefactor of a lot of hard hit outs this year and his advanced metrics don’t support that he’s as good of a closer as his ERA and conversions suggest, so maybe I’m looking at less return than some because of that.
The only team I could see making a Smith and Lucroy trade work would be Cleveland. The fact that they have 2 OF in the top 25-30 depending on the prospect list and as many as 4 arms in the top 100 on some lists they could put together a very solid package without completely mortgaging their future. Especially since they have a very young, controllable team at the major league level, so some of those guys are going to be blocked for a while.
I agree that he has not been as good as his stats show but look at how many teams need upgrades in the bullpen, a ton. Almost every contender it seems. And there aren’t enough significant players to go around. So someone is going to be left out in the cold or taking on someone that might not even really help. And a lot of these teams are WS contenders with stocked farm systems. Do you want to be that GM who had a chance at winning a WS title but couldn’t land a significant piece to your bullpen to help out even if it meant overpaying a bit? I think as soon as Chapman goes there will be a rush to get some relief options from all the teams who lost out on him, which will be a lot. The market is on the Brewers side. Also remember owners have a say in this as well and a lot of those guys might not care as much about the prospects you would have saved, they want to win.
Its all about the market. Look at Pomeranz, would you ever think a middle of the rotation starter, back end type pitcher would command a top 15 prospect in all of baseball? I’m just waiting for Chapman to go, then it should get interesting
Depends how the market shakes out. Fernando Rodney just got moved for a 45 rated arm that, while interesting, is nowhere near anyone’s top 100 list and his numbers were way better than Jeffress’. Now I know that he’s 39 and only has one more year of control vs 3 so the cost is lower, but that’s a huge jump when you’re talking going from 1 mid level prospect to 3 including 1 higher up.
As for Pomeranz, he’s been solid the last 3 years, was a big prospect when he was coming up, and has turned a corner since developing a third pitch. I’m pretty sure they feel they got more than a middle or back end type pitcher. Plus he’s only 27 with 2 more years of control. That wasn’t a terrible trade.
I agree. But look at the teams needing bullpen arms and this is just off the top of my head, Texas, Washington, Mets, Dodgers, Cubs, Indians. All these teams are loaded with prospects except maybe the Mets. But not all of them are getting Chapman or Miller who i’m not sure will even be traded anyway. So when he goes they’re all going to be looking around for an upgrade. And all these teams can give up much more than the Giants can without even really denting their main prospect core pieces. And I doubt the Dodgers would sit around and watch the Giants pick up a significant bullpen piece without them having a say in it when it wouldn’t take much for them to match and easily do better. I could be totally wrong but this is how I see it.
Seems a little light. Starting point maybe. Brewers are going to want more quality added to the quantity
As a Brewer fan I’d support that deal. Although I think you might need to swap out Light with a younger and higher rated player…Jeffress, Smith and Lucroy are all controllable, and I think they are worth just a little bit more than that in a trade package.
Devers
Kopech
Light
Ockimey
For
LuCroy
Smith
Ockimey can’t run and can’t field. He’s a DH only player that doesn’t have much value in the NL.
Rather have someone like Dubon or Longhi in there. And don’t put a capital C in the middle of Lucroy. Hate when people do that, makes you look like you don’t know what you’re talking about.
The Brewers would win with Devers
for who?
Philly should take anything for Hernandez, but wouldnt mind Gomez sticking around as a veteran in the pen (not the long term closer), unless someone makes you an offer you’d be crazy to turn down.
Milwaukee wanted three prospects from Miami for Jeffress so he won’t be cheap to get.
Milwaukee gets – Aramis Garcia, Ryder Jones, and Kyle Crick
Sf gets- Jeffress.
Seems like an over pay to me, maybe, but if SF wants him they will probably have to give up a bit. But getting Gomez from Philly seems more realistic if they don’t want to start selling the farm.
Drastic overpay. Jeffress is not even close to as good as his numbers. Strikeouts are down, WHIP is up, he’s been the benefactor of a lot of outs on hard hit balls this year. Plus he seems to be way less effective if he comes in in a non-save situation. I know it was reported they wanted 3 prospects from Miami, but their farm system is pretty weak. Garcia is probably ranked much higher than any of them were and is at a big position of need for Milwaukee. Him and Crick may be enough, add in another wild card in Jones and I’d love it.
Totally disagree. That package is really light to me for a cost controlled effective closer. Especially with the market and all the teams looking for effective bullpen guys. All reports are saying a ton of interest in Jeffress and Smith. I think we are just waiting for Chapman to go and then we will see. Also the Giants have a pretty weak farm system and you’re not even getting one of their top 5 payers? Nah there has to be something better out there I would think.
I still stand by my claim that he’s not as effective as his ERA and conversion rate suggest and that other teams will notice that. Having a WHIP over 1.3 is not an ideal number for a closer. He also is arb eligible after this season so he can turn those ERA and save numbers in to a pretty hefty pay raise (as will Smith and Thornberg, making the bullpen drastically more expensive if all 3 are there).
The Giants system is not too highly touted because they are missing the big names at the top, but they have depth. Garcia is a top 10 catching prospect despite being out of their top 5. I would prefer Shaw in a deal, but I wouldn’t scoff at a 50+ rated catcher, which Milwaukee could definitely use.
I think it’s a huge overpay for Jeffress. I think Garcia and crick my be too much. But Milwaukee doesn’t want to settle on any of their players. And with the way some trades have gone down in the past year, I won’t be surprised to see someone pay to much for him.
They don’t really have much reason to settle. Smith and Jeffress are both controllable for 3 more years and they could choose to hold on to them and trade them in the off season or next trade deadline. That being said, I think they also have to be realistic about the return and not hold them because they ask an unreasonable price.
I love when people talk about pitchers having undeserved #’s based on advanced metrics. Especially when they’ve probably only seen the guy pitch to 3 or 4 batters all year. I’m not trying to single this guy out I just bring it up now bc it’s been said about Jeffress a lot lately. The reality however is almost the exact opposite, he hasn’t been hit hard at all. He’s given up more seeing eye singles then anyone due to the ridiculous shifting in Milwaukee. His strikeouts are down bc he pitches to weak contact when he gets ahead in the count to induce a DP, and we’re not even going to mention how brutal the Brewers D is this season.
If Jeffress were on any team other then the Brewers his #’s would be so much better. In almost every outing this season the Brewers have an error or misplay when he comes in. There has been multiple DPs not turned bc of players being out of position after the ball has been fielded. There is even more that could be turned if they didn’t shift pull side for every player. Why u would expect someone to pull the ball when they’re getting upper 90’s heat with run and sink is beyond me, but that’s what Milwaukees scouting dept recommends this season. Jeffress has pitched so much better this year then the numbers say, he pitches himself out of 2 on 1 out jams almost nightly to get those saves. Sure his numbers should be much worse based on his fip and babip, but fip and babip don’t tell the whole story. With Jeffress (and most Milwaukee pitchers) advanced metrics shouldn’t be used as the only indicator of success and failure bc evey ball in play is an adventure.
Also that proposal is way way too light for 3 of the 10 best players on the trade market. Using your philosophy with Owens and Swihart Milwaukee might as well trade middlebrooks and cecchini for Teheran since they both used to be top 100 prospects. Devers is the most over hyped/rated of bostons top tier prospects. The only way they get that deal done is if Boston adds Benintendi with Devers or ptbnl(groome), then swaps out Owens for Johnson or Kopech, and maybe let Boston pick the 1 or 2 lottery tix going to Milwaukee. No one in their right mind would give up 6 years of controlled bullpen arms like smith and Jeffress, plus the best catcher in baseball for 1.5years, and the QO that goes with all 3 of them for a single A prospect, 3 former top 100 busts, and 2 lotto tix. U gotta be insane if u think that’s a good swap.
As a Giants fan I am ok with that
I’d be happy to get Jeffress or Smith, but I wouldn’t want to give up Crick if I can avoid it.
I’m not sure why anyone still thinks Kyle Crick has any value. The guy is walking 6 batters per 9 IP in his minor league career. He’s at 5.37 this year in AA.
I don’t think you’d have to worry about losing him. Milwaukee won’t want him other than maybe as a throw-in to add to their minors depth.
The Giants would rather have smith
Brewers will not trade for anyone over the age of 24
Braun and smith for bickford, shaw, Garcia, fox, Coonrod
Too much to the Brewers. Yes, Braun is good but trading bickford and fox is a lot, and along with the power hitting shaw, it’s not worth it trying to get Braun. They should aim lower and get jay Bruce.
Giants get: Nick Markakis and Jim Johnson
Braves get: Christian Arroyo
It’s a complete pipe dream if you think the Giants would take that deal.
I’ve wondered about something re: trading Braun. I wonder if the Brewers have thought about taking back a big contract plus a prospect(s)? The Brewers are going to have salary room for a bit.. They were at like $55M before they traded Aaron Hill?
I wonder if trade talk started at a Braun for Matt Cain spot, where things would go? Cain’s contract is til 2018, Braun’s is 2020?
Both sides would have to be motivated to move the player. Braun is playing pretty well this year, and Cain hasn’t. But if Cain stays healthy the Brewers get a pitcher who can guide a young staff for the rest of his contract.
I have no idea who has to surrender prospects in the deal. Cain is younger. Braun is playing well.
Anyway, just a thought that occurred to me.
I’d like the Giants to look at acquiring Joe Kelly who was demoted to triple A Pawkett. He was a starter and now they are working him as a reliever. He’s young a great athlete and throws 95-100 mph. He’d love to come to the Giants!