MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth just broke down the Pirates’ upcoming offseason, labeling as the team’s “key topic” the question whether to seriously entertain trade talks on long-time star center fielder Andrew McCutchen. It’s a tough call for a team that disappointed in 2016 but still hopes to contend next year. While an answer is obviously dependent in no small part upon the level of demand on the market, it seems worth posing now to the MLBTR readership.
As Charlie explained, McCutchen’s middling season did end well, with a .284/.381/.471 batting line from the start of August. And while he’s no longer particularly youthful, he’ll only be entering his age-30 season with a track record as one of the game’s most productive all-around players.
Even if teams buy into the idea that Cutch’s true talent level at the plate remains rather high, despite his rough results for most of the year, the question remains what they’ll think of his glovework in center. Metrics have never loved him up the middle, but took a particularly dim view of his work in 2016. McCutchen graded out at -22.5 runs per UZR and racked up -28 Defensive Runs Saved. Both were league-low marks among qualifying players.
Beyond the on-field matters, McCutchen is a unique player. He has been the face of the franchise as it has emerged from a long period of misery, and remains affordable despite his long run of excellence. His extension calls for a $14MM salary next year and includes a $14.5MM club option ($1MM buyout) for 2018. And it’s obviously a relative low point at which to deal.
On the other hand, Pittsburgh has several needs and already signaled some payroll concerns in giving up prospects to move the remaining contract of Francisco Liriano at the deadline. With other holes to plug, as Charlie documents in the above-linked piece, there’s an argument to be made that now’s the time to re-allocate the salary while getting some assets back. Plus, the club has center field options on hand in Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco along with an outfield replacement available in highly-rated youngster Austin Meadows — though a .214/.297/.460 batting line over his first 147 Triple-A plate appearances suggests there’s some polishing left.
There’s a lot to ponder here, and the Bucs have some time to think about it while getting a read on the market. But as things stand, what do you think Pittsburgh ought to do?
They would have to get two MLB-ready players. Like a very good 4-5 hole hitter, and a #3 pitcher, or an Ace or #2 pitcher, and a decent bat. Otherwise, there’s no point in selling him at a low value.
There’s no way McCutchen completely falls off the map. And though he may not be MVP caliber again, a less-injured 2017 for Cutch will have him back to a top 10 NL Center Fielder.
Haha, what? You admit that his relative play is “top 10 NL CF” and you want a very good hitter + pitcher or an Ace + decent bat, for that?
^ this
I think he means guys with ace potential who are near MLB ready but regarless nobody is giving that up for a guy who can’t play Center anymore and is coming off his worst season by far. I love Cutch he’s my favorite player but no he’s not worth anywhere near that and unless a team offers a kings ransom which would be moronic there’s no sense in trading him.
what is ace potential? There are so few pitching prospects who grade out as fv 70s.
He’s horrible in CF! not worth what you want out of him!
He is horrible in center now, some analysts have discussed this and they seem to think it’s mostly in the way the pirates align the outfield that is the biggest problem…I think if he goes to a team that can align him correctly he will be serviceable, not gold glove caliber by means, but be an average cf. They play too far in and he has to have a great read and route efficiency to even have a chance at it… If he plays deeper it would mask most of his inefficiencies I believe… He should also go to a team where he isn’t the three hole hitter… But yeah I don’t think they are going to get the world for him, nor should they, but he still has pretty decent value…
Isn’t he the one who likes to play shallow?
I can see McCutchen and 2 top 10 prospects to the Jays for Dalton Pompey.
That’s pretty stupid.
Why would anyone in their right mind trade the organization’s cornerstone player at the lowest point in his career?
hes notceven top 3 in best players on the team!
No, he’s the very best player on the team who had a down season. You can’t argue his presence, along with his raw talent. He’s the Pirates best piece and he’s been that the past 4 seasons or so.
Same age as When Frank Robinson was traded to Baltimore. He would fit in perfectly in Boston.
The new killer B’s might have something to say about that
They would be crazy to trade the club friendly contract of of a former MVP McCutchen. Pirates may have traded Liriano partly because of his contract, be he was also no longer listening to his pitching coach.
I can’t see the Pirates trading him for less than a great package. At the same time though, I don’t know if a team would be willing to part with premium talent considering he’s coming off the worst year of his career.
Out of curiosity, was he dealing with injuries this year by chance? Otherwise I don’t know how anyone can explain the sudden drop off in production.
Your not going to get a great package offer at all for him right now. Just maybe you will next year If he can come back some what close to his MVP numbers. So his team friendly contract and fan favorite makes him perfect where’s he’s at!
Exactly. As someone said earlier. Why trade him after a bad season. They can trade him during the season if he plays well next year.
But…. It’s hard to trade a fan favorite, especially if he’s playing well. Right now might be easier on the fans.
Regardless. I wouldn’t trade him, I’d try and extend him. He’s a wonderful player and seems to be a great person. But if the Pirates don’t want him, I really hope my team gets him.
The Pirates are one of those teams that have to watch their payroll dollars. I don’t see them being able to afford an extension for Cutch with some of the other mandatory raises coming up soon. Meadows is close but not quite there yet, probably somewhere around the A/S break. If they could get a couple of decent arms for Cutch it would be a smart move.
He needs to reinvent his game still some bases, bunt, he had an MVP season and then got lazy.
Steal
Yep!
Does anyone remember Vernon Wells. One more year like this and the Pitates get squat.
vernon wells… ugh
As an Angels fan I had convinced myself that Vernon Wells was a mystical creature that never really existed. Thanks for bringing him up.
The answer is yes, for the best package.
Marte is a better CF. LF opens up for Meadows who may be the best hitter in MiLB. Also opens up a position they may platoon for a cheaper AAV while allowing Bell to still receive OF reps.
Cutch does not have the swing plane or raw to keep the HR results up w/o sacraficing BA which will only become more severe as he ages.
A team in the AL w/smaller parks and no in incentive to run will find him more valuable.
He’s there leader, but that’s a strong core of makeup in Pit.
I would go after a kid like Villar if the Brewers would bite or NYY Mateo who could play SS, 2B or OF and satisfied the leadoff hole.
I am curious how a guy who hit .214 is the best hitter in milb? I know ba is not the end all but it does have some value and it tells me he isn’t the best hitter. He might be the best in the pirates org but not all of the milb.
The Brewers would have close to zero interest in trading for McCutchen. They have a plethora of CF in the minors and don’t need to take on an aging player that is under contract for only 2 seasons when they aren’t even trying to compete.
” What assets would the Pirates need to add to McCutcheon to pry Villar from MKE?”
That’s the question you should ask.
And then you realise how foolish your trade fantasy is.
He is the prince of Pittsburgh. He would be king of St. Louis.
Aside from this never happening because of the interleague rivalry I’m curious as to what it would take to get him?
From the Cardinals? Probably have to give up a combination of Reyes, Weaver, Flaherty, Bader, etc. But it won’t happen, like you said, they won’t trade him to a division rival.
horrible fit in stl, cant play CF
In 2016 he struggled in cf both defensively and offensively. His career numbers tell somewhat of a different story. I’ve always thought he profiled better in left field? The last I checked we could use a LF?
I like Grichuck in center.
Yes, trade him. Put Marte in CF and go after an outfielder/use Bell to fill in until Meadows is ready. Use McCutchen to address the problems in the rotation, and add a few more prospects for the minor league system. It’ll be hard for the fan base, but it’ll have to be done at some point.
Anyone who thinks they keep him: then who do they trade out of Meadows, Polanco or Marte? Because Meadows is so close to being ready.
The smart move would be to wait til Meadows has a .900+ OPS at AAA next year, then open up the trades. Don’t move anyone this offseason.
HOWEVER:
Sonny Gray for McCutchen who says no?
The A’s say no due to the salary and control discrepancies.
I don’t think they’ll trade him. If they don’t contend this next season then he’s a goner.
I’d wait until the trade deadline to trade him. Kinda pointless to sell low but maybe the last two months helped his stock enough to bring back enough to move him this winter. Giving Meadows some more time is huge. You can get by with platooning Joyce (if resigned) and Harrison.
Who would be realistic partners? I feel like Mets and Mariners make sense. No idea what they’d offer though.
Yes I’d trade him now. They still have Marte and Polanco and others in the outfield. For a money strapped team It makes sense for them to move him instead of signing him to a big contract
depends on what there offered. if they get a big haul, which they probably won’t, can’t say no. but they’ll likely have to hope his value goes up before a trade
The Rays are looking for an impact bat, and the Pirates were in on Chris Archer at the deadline. Tampa has a crowded rotation, and the Pirates OF is getting crowded with Meadows knocking on the door. Both McCutchen and Archer underperformed last year but I feel like a trade could really be there.
Sort of this. Not for Archer (he is controlled for like 5 years for like the same cost as McCutchen is controlled for 2. But don’t the Rays have like a bunch of good young pitchers/pitching prospects? Plus they have a really good defensive CF so they could play McCutchen elsewhere sans drama. Seems like a fit.
Archer has so much more value than Cutch though.
Sonny Gray & Matt Andriese to Pirates
Andrew McCutchen & Stephen Vogt to Rays
Kevin Kiermaier, Nick Franklin & Josh Harrison to Oakland (Oakland taking on Harrisons contract would be beneficial to Pirates – yes the A’s have a huge amount of payroll avail this offseason – currently at around $30M with a ceiling of $80-90M).
That deal fills needs for all teams involved and looks fair on paper.
Bad deal for everyone but Pittsburgh.
No way the Rays trade Kiermaier. He’s probably the most untouchable player on the team trade-wise.
If the Rays were to trade for McCutchen he’d most likely end up playing LF in Tampa. Every one of Cutch’s fielding metrics say he shouldn’t be playing CF anymore, and Kiermaier in CF was the difference between Corey Dickerson’s -4.2 UZR with the Rockies in 2015 and 8.5 UZR with the Rays this year. With as much as the Rays value defense, especially outfield defense with their pitching staff leading MLB in flyball percentage, having Kiermaier in CF is pretty much required if McCutchen is going to play the field.
Rays have a few good pitching prospects, but I highly doubt they’d trade from their stock of them because so much of what the Rays do revolves around getting a pitcher’s cheap pre-arb years. With the starting pitching free agent market as bad as it is this year the Rays are definitely gonna try trade a starter off the major league roster, but I don’t think Jake Odorizzi gets you in on McCutchen and Drew Smyly definitely doesn’t. I’d rather trade Archer and get McCutchen plus prospects back rather than trade prospects for Cutch.
The Pirates lacked the power in the line up that walker and Pedro Alvarez provided. Also, they lack the starting pitching they had last year. As long as the Pirates are strapped for cash or with a owner that won’t provide any additional funds for the team, they will never make it past the wild card. The penguins and steelers can give 17 million a year contracts, why can’t the Pirates. Ie rothlessburger. I am a long time pirate fan, but the owner has to go. Keep Neil. He does a tremendous job with what he has to work with.
They should have a town hall meeting in Pittsburgh and have a vote on the owner of the Pirates. Surely the people will come out and vote that he be fired, and deservedly so.
The Pirates hit more homeruns in 2016 than they did in 15. 2016 and 2015 was about the same in doubles plus hr’s.
Their two biggest problems were starting pitching and Clutch hitting. They simply couldn’t get a man home from third with less than two outs all season.
I would ask for a MLB ready so and a high side SS or 2b prospect along with an unpolished A arm or two.
If that’s a no go, then keep him in Pittsburgh.
If the Mets do not resign Cespedes, can see a trade of DeGrom for Cutch.
mets are not trading degrom for cutch
Mets could get a lot better player than Cutch for deGrom.
I like the option that if they are “blown away” with a trade offer, but you have to remember they have Neil Huntington, one of the worst GMs, making those decisions. He has never done a worth-while trade and I do not see him starting anytime soon.
Still don’t understand that Liriano/Blue Jays trade with two very good prospects “thrown in”. They’d have been better off just releasing Liriano and keeping Ramirez and McGuire.
Blue jJays ate 17 million in salary on the Liriano trade.
Just releasing him, the Pirates would be on the hook for that cash.
despite the season , this is a guy you build your club around. I say lock him up this year , Cutch made baseball cool again in Pittsburgh
You don’t build a team around a 30 year old, declining cfer who is only under contract for 2 more years.
What If Seattle made an offer and put Walker in the package?
That’s what I’m thinking. Walker and a reliever would make Huntington think about it.
Walker + Diaz and Jackson for Cutch
I’d do that for sure.
Which Jackson though?
And who is replacing Walker?
How bout Ender Inciarte Aaron Blair Jace Peterson and Connor Lein for McClutchen Ivan Nova
You keep floating that trade package in every post, lol
They don’t have Nova under contract.
They have a few players like Peterson (Frazier and Harrison).
As a Braves fan I understand what you’re trying for here. However why trade Ender for Cutch? Pirates need arms not more OF’s. Something like Jenkins, Ramirez, and another lower level arm maybe. Cutch has one yr and an option left heading into 2017.
I think so, get a reliever and a few top prospects
Chris Sale for one of Marte or Polanco +Glasnow, Meadows, Kuhl, and Brault.
Lol more like Taillon, Glasnow, Bell, Polanco.
Bradley and Moncada for him might get it done.
No way… and I’m not even the biggest Cutch fan…
1 – Cutch isn’t done… after slumps he goes on wild tares. I expect the entire next season to be one of his best at the plate.
2 – They have him on the cheap – and the guy doesn’t want to leave. How much $ are they making just by having him around (shirts, tickets, etc.)? How much of a backlash from fans if they trade him (especially if that trade looks/turns bad?).
3 – What does it do to the team’s morale?
4 – Move from center? eh… maybe. But, if they moved him to left, how many outs at the plate would he get under Marte? I also heard Pirates moved the outfielders shallower this year. I’d consider leaving it, or move to right field.
I wouldn’t do it this off-season for sure. Give an all-star, mvp, team captain-esuqe super high-quality dude a chance to stay with the team he has fervently stated he wants to retire with. (I see very slim up-side, and way too much down-side to even consider it)
1. He’s coming off the worst season of his career, just because he did something in the past doesn’t mean he can do it again in his 30’s.
2. He’s a free agent after 2 seasons.
3. They’ll be fine.
4. Considering his defensive stats he needs to move.
They need to trade him ASAP before he’s the next Vernon Wells. With him tney won no pennants or titles, he’s nothing special.
What about Texas. If they can’t resign Desmond maybe a package centered on either Gallo/Profar gets talks started. Idk how much TX has left in the farm after those deadline trades though.
I think it would maybe be the time for pittsburgh to trade Cutch. Their bullpen has been the best in major league baseball in 14 and 15, I think they would need to get a valuable RP and a middle of the order bat. They could afford to trade him because they have maybe the best oufield in the NL with Marte and future superstar Gregory Polanco
Why is a team going to trade a good reliever and middle of the order bat for 2 years of a 30 year old cf who is coming off a horrible year and seems like he is a cf in name only?
trade him to the Orioles
The Pirates are making the same Mistake that the Phillies and Yankees with aging Superstars ,peddle him now while his value is still relatively high, one more sub-par year and they be be begging for somebody to take him off their hands. For a third of what they can get for him now !
Exactly.
They should trade McCutchen along with Meadows and possibly Kuhl or Cole for a salary dump.
Horrible idea.
What about the Mets assuming they lose out on Cespedes. Could be interesting what happens there