In the wake of Edwin Encarnacion’s signing, there are now a whole lot of power hitters who could be next in line to sign. That situation provides much of the impetus behind the latest notes column from Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. You’ll want to read the whole thing to get his full take on the market, but here are a few notable items of information:
- TheĀ Athletics’ entry into the chase for Encarnacion helped push the action that led to his signing, per Heyman. Oakland proposed two separate scenarios, he notes, one of which would’ve been a straight two-year, $50MM deal and the other of which would have tacked on a third-year option in exchange for an opt-out clause. Before those offers pushed the Indians to boost their own deal, Encarnacion had been fielding many less-desirable possible arrangements. Indeed, theĀ Blue Jays were mostly engaged with their former star on one-year possibilities most recently, Heyman notes.
- With Encarnacion now off to Cleveland, the many remaining sluggers will be looking to land with a variety of other suitors. Heyman suggests that theĀ Blue Jays,Ā Orioles, andĀ Rangers are all “very likely” to add bats, while listing a number of other teams that could get involved as well. That includes theĀ Rays,Ā Giants,Ā Phillies,Ā White Sox,Ā Angels, andĀ Rockies, each of whom has at least some interest in the remaining market.
- Mark Trumbo is probably now the player with the highest earning capacity who has yet to sign, but his landing spot remains hard to peg. Beyond the Orioles and Rockies, Heyman says, “a couple more opportunities may have cropped up” of late.
- It seems unlikely that theĀ Blue Jays will punt a pick to sign Jose Bautista (which they’d technically be doing, as they’d no longer be in line for the comp pick they stand to gain when he signs elsewhere),Ā heĀ adds, even if he’s now available on a one-year pact. Toronto does need to make some outfield additions, though, and Heyman writes that the club has kept tabs on free agentsĀ Michael Saunders and Brandon Moss, along with “many others.” TheĀ Orioles are also said to have interest in Saunders, as has been suggested previously, and Heyman suggests that theĀ Phillies — who’d prefer to add a lefty bat — have some interest in Moss.
- Mike Napoli was said to be seeking a three-year deal earlier this winter, but this report now indicatesĀ that he’s seeking a two-year contract, which seems quite a bit more plausible. The Rangers are reportedly a “strong possibility” for Napoli, though Heyman notes the possibility of the ever-popular “mystery team” in Napoli’s market, suggesting that Napoli has at least one suitor that has yet to be linked to him publicly.
- While the Dodgers are willing to give up Jose De Leon in a trade that would net them Brian Dozier from the Twins, they’re not willing to include first base prospect Cody Bellinger or well-regarded right-handed pitching prospects Yadier Alvarez or Walker Buehler alongside De Leon. Heyman writes that some clubs feel the Dodgers are being “stingy” with their prospects and overvaluing their minor league talent, though as he points out, that approach worked to their benefit with regards to Corey Seager and Julio Urias (although none of the names listed are as well-regarded as that pair was).
- In addition to Jered Weaver, veteran right-handers Jake Peavy and Colby Lewis are on the Padres’ radar. Peavy would love the opportunity to return to San Diego, where he established himself as a star and won the 2007 National League Cy Young Award. I’ll point out that Lewis, too, has some connections to the Padres, as GM A.J. Preller was in the Rangers’ front office when Lewis returned from Japan and cemented himself as a Major League-caliber arm.
Don’t know why the dodger’s won’t part with buehler he’s just coming off of TJS and is very risky. They can pull a trade off with out giving to much and with out giving bellinger or Alvarez
touching 100, flashing plus secondaries.
Buehler – “He consistently worked at 90-96 mph with his fastball, with its command more notable than its life.” In other words before his TJ, he could bring it mid-90s if he reared back, but it was flat. Guess that is why he isn’t on anyone’s top 100 prospects.
he was 99 this fall. keep up to date.
Salty Madres fan as always.
Theo2016, go away
It might be risky, but he’s at his lowest value. With the extended layoff and his ability to get into his offseason workout it’s really not that risky besides the normal P prospect risk. If he comes back and saddles a pretty decent workload his prospect value increases extremely. He’s has plus stuff. They can somewhat shed a little at the top to layer the system. They have 11 SP that appeared in the majors last year with another two at AAA waiting for their opportunity. It’s pretty clear they aren’t going to be able to trade Kaz,McCarthy, Ryu this offseason. So they’ll probably attempt to showcase(assuming health; which is a very dangerous assumption) them early in the season instead of just cutting money and running.
I wonder who the Cardinals would get in a trade from the Blue Jays for Brandon Moss.
Moss is a free agent.
That’s really going to limit his trade value. They probably could get CASH or a PTBNL though.
James_07… More like Ken M
No one as he is no longer a member of their team.
Seriously?
Free agent
I hope that Moss will go to the phillies
Yep, or Rasmus. Let the Mets get stuck with Jay Bruce.
Well, if the A’s had interest in EE, why not Trumbo?
Also, Moss played for the Phillies a bit already
Lastly, one idea I have being trying to convey to Oriole types
Sign Franklin GutiƩrrez and Angel Pagan and have a 5 man outfield rotation
That would be the best scenario rather that coughing up a draft pick or trading an established bullpen piece or prospect.
Seems to me that Oakland’s interest in Encarnacion was more about the fact that they felt he was too good a value to pass up at this price point than, “We really need a right-handed bat at first base/DH.”
Okay, but still I remember Trumbo taking Balfour (when he was good) deep a few years ago and he could help them. Then again, Trumbo might want to go to a contender
The Orioles were the only ones to do that for him.
Trumbo really is’t very good.
they already have a Trumbo in the form of Khris Davis, and 1B is going to be occupied eventually by Ryon Healy once Matt Chapman’s in the show
Ha! I liked him. He helped the O’s win ans bailed them out numerous times last season
Lol
I think Billy had visions of a trade deadline haul dancing in his head.
I like Trumbo too but I’m not sure I want to give up a draft pick for him while still in rebuild mode. I know it’s a 2nd round pick but it’s going to be in the late 30’s/early 40’s which is pretty high to me. I also like Napoli and would like to see the A’s take a run at him but I think he is going back to Texas.
Texas loved Napoli that is for sure.
The Blue Jays aren’t guaranteed to get a 1st round pick for Bautista. He could sgn with the Rays & then they wouldn’t get a 1st rounder because the Rays’ 1t round pick is protected. I don’t know why the Jays would have any interest in Moss. He was absolutely awful last season. I’d rather have Bautista on a 1-year deal than sign Moss to any deal. The Blue Jays have to find someone better than Moss as a corner outfielder.
People don’t seem to understand the QO draft pick process.
When a team loses a QO-player to another team, they do NOT get that team’s pick. They get a compensation pick that occurs between the 1st and 2nd round. So it does not matter who signs Bautista, unless they resign him themselves, they will get the exact same pick either way. It doesn’t matter that the Rays 1st round pick is protected, they’re not getting the Rays pick back anyway.
Just so you know the team does actually lose there pick unless it is protected in the top 10. If it is protected then you will lose the second round pick. That is how this thing works. There is one other of you have already lost your first round pick by signing a QO free agent then you will lose a second round pick since you can’t lose a pick you don’t have.
I’m well aware the team signing him loses a pick. But the person I responded to implied that the position of the Jay’s compensation pick was dependent on who signed him. He implied that if the Rays (who had a protected first round pick) signed him, then the Jays would not receive a first round pick. That is not true because no matter who signs him, protected 1st round pick or not, the Jays’ pick still remains a sandwich pick between the first and second round. The Jays could lose five QO free agents in any given year and all of their five picks would fall in the exact same compensatory round between the first and second rounds.
Unless a player is selected in the first 10 slots in the draft, he’s hardly a can’t-miss anyway. And heck, for every Bryce Harper, there’s a Lew Krausse.
And the best player in baseball wasn’t selected in the top 10…see i can play this game too
Billy Beane…
Top ten by no means equals a cant mis prospect.
For the Jays to get a pick, some other team needs to sign Bautista, and so far, that hasn’t happened. Currently, the Jays aren’t gaining a pick, so if they sign him back (on a 1 year deal), they aren’t losing anything.
Someone will sign him. Do you really think he would go all year without a contract?
They’d still get a pick in the same area. The only difference would be the pick being forfeited by the signing team.
Why would the blue jays “punt a pick” for Bautista? They gave him the QO. They just wouldn’t get another draft pick if he were to sign elsewhere.
(which theyād technically be doing, as theyād no longer be in line for the comp pick they stand to gain when he signs elsewhere)
That’s still considered punting a pick. They still lose a pick they otherwise would have gotten if he had signed elsewhere.
Phillies please sign Saunders not moss
I’d rather have Moss,since he also has experience at 1b.he’d give us insurance for Joseph,who hasn’t really proved he can handle 125+ games.having that position versatility makes him a better bench option,if and when Roman Quinn or Nick Williams are ready to come up.and Saunders injury history would also make it more likely we’d have to force a prospect into the lineup.
Yep
Don’t know if this is Baseball Related but the Game was at Yankee Stadium ……. I had the over 64 in NW Pitt and I got screwed cause Pitt should of scored around 50 points
#DontGamble
#coolstorybro
Won’t be at all surprised if we see more teams start to put this kind of value on their prospects. It’s becoming harder and harder to fill out a roster in free agency due to cost and lack of talent.
It’s already happening. Its become increasingly difficult to build a playoff team through free agency or trades alone. You need those young, talented, and cost-controlled players to fill out the bulk of your roster.
I don’t mean building a team through fa, i mean even filling in holes on your roster. League average players are looking for 16+ on multi year deals. And we’ve seen what has happened with pen arms. Supplementing your roster with these types of guys can add up, quickly.
Agree with you there
I can see Alvarez or bellinger being a sticking point (though I think dozier is worth one of them), but Buehler? Buehler? Buehler?
Dodgers are being ridiculous. Might as well cut off trade talks
Fine with me. Two years of Dozier already isn’t worth 6-7 years of DeLeon, let alone, DeLeon plus a bunch of other top prospects.
Deleon is completely unproven and was actually bad in his brief callup. That doesn’t mean he’s a bad prospect, but he’s a prospect. 2 years of dozier in your contending window COULD be Worth infinitely more than Deleons whole career. I don’t understand LAD’s fans mentality on this
Contending window? The team is young, primarily their best players. Plus they have money and prospects coming up. This team is built for the long haul, they should be contending for the playoffs for years to come. That’s the dodgers mentality.
Every prospect is unproven…that’s not some reason to just toss them away. The dodgers have a young team and a solid system, their contention window isn’t only a couple years.
What would be the market value of Dozier’s two seasons of control if he was a free agent right now?
What would be the market value of DeLeon’s 6-7 seasons of control if he was a free agent right now?
Answer those two questions and you will have insight into the mentality.
I’m the one who’s usually calling for the Dodgers to trade from their strengths and build a championship team, but I don’t see the proposition of Dozier for DeLeon being in the Dodgers’ favor. It’s at best an imperfect fit for what the Dodgers need.
It’s not just what the value is, but to what type of team is looking to that value. Dozier is the superior value to a team looking to win now. Deleon is going to offer more value to a team that is up and coming, but not there yet. Deleon would not provide the best value to a teams next two seasons. Years 4-6 would probably be the best part of his value. If neither were on the Dodgers, the Dodgers would prefer Dozier. Who knows what the future holds for Kershaw in 3-4 years when Deleon puts it together (if he does at all).
Cause the dodgers tossing money at people has worked so well LOL. All the international players- kazmir- mcarthy- ryu- etc.
Need is what puts trades together ultimately but for DeLeon he doesn’t need to put a lot together to be worth more than Dozier in a market where journeyman bottom-roation pitchers are routinely pulling down $10m+ a season in free agency. His best potential value is actually in his first three seasons, before he gets to arbitration, where any team that employs him could easily enjoy a 95% discount over market rate.
What would be their value if they were both free agents? Dozier would get literally 10-20 times the money Deleon would get. Not understanding your point on that one.
wow….10 to 20x more, could you make a more wide window? You’re also just wrong. We’ve seen what international pitching prospects get in a market where their earning is restricted by the rules and they are teenagers far from mlb debut.
Dozier is probably looking at about 2/70 as a max? I’m sure a team would gladly pay more than 7 million dollars for 6 years of deleon.
Using the “if he was a free agent” hypothetical kinda voids whatever seasons of control still exist. Bad analogy.
Going on 30 year old MI with pop, would probably get 4 years $60 mill? More isn’t crazy to imagine.
Going on 25 year old SP on the verge of breaking through would probably get less but likely signs a small deal year one, or something with opt out for when he does break through??
Just throwing in 2 cents. The first year of any contract either player signed in this hypothetical, could potentially turn out to be 10-20 times more in favour of Dozier. By year 7, DeLeon would have considerably closed the gap if his arm stays in tact. Pretty impossible to try to compare.
Who will give more wins per dollar now is all that really matters. DeLeon could easily provide 10-20 times the value that Dozier could.
As for trade value, factoring in seasons of control gains major ground for DeLeon in the argument. If I followed Dodgers system more, I could vote whether the trade was worth doing, but at a glance, it would seem better to try finding a stopgap if I was the Dodgers in this scenario.
At best an imperfect fit for what the Dodgers need feels like a great statement to me. Good recovery from the starting analogy.
It isn’t an analogy. It also isn’t really a hypothetical.
What a player would cost to hire on the open market is the only (repeat, only) way of establishing that player’s market value. All salaries not established by free agency are controlled by the rules of the CBA and are nearly always far less than what that player would be paid as a free agent. Salaries established by free agency may also prove to be above or below market, depending on how the player performs over the course of his contract. It’s perfectly reasonable to attempt to estimate what he could demand if he was a free agent now. That will tell you whether he has excess or negative value in a trade.
A team that can’t fill a need internally by players they control will have to either hire in free agency or trade for that player. It isn’t any mystery what a journeyman starting pitcher in free agency gets paid. We have lots of recent comps to draw from. In DeLeon’s case, even assuming his last two years of arbitration are close to market value, he still provides five years at far below market value, meaning somewhere in the neighborhood of $40-50m excess value. The excess value of Dozier’s two years of control is worth less than half than that, even being extremely generous.
Is DeLeon a greater risk? Sure, by virtue of the contract’s length. So discount his value for risk somewhat if you like, but not by 60%, because that’s just silly. Keeping in mind also that if a team gets, say, only three years from any controlled player for any reason they can non-tender him and cut their losses. A player under contract they have to pay no matter what happens. You can put that on the other side of the risk equation.
As filthy rich pointed out, you’re mixing things together that can’t be mixed together. If they were free agents, Dozier would get more years AND a higher AAV than Deleon.
You’re acting like Deleon is established. He’s a prospect with a bad callup. And he’s not that young. There’s a reasonable chance he’ll be a bust. I don’t think he will, but it’s a gamble. So yes, if you’re talking no years of control, actual free agency, Dozier would likely get 4-5 years worth 60-90. And if Deleon were a free agent right now he’d probably actually get a minor league contract, but if not he’s not getting any more than a couple million.
He’s a prospect.
Filthy and Phantom are 100% right, and you are 100% wrong.
If both Dozier and DeLeon were free agents right now, Dozier would earn significantly more. This is because Dozier is a proven MI….he has produced consistently, and ranks near the top of his position in WAR. DeLeon isn’t any of that, at this point, and it would be extraordinarily rare to see a team out-pay him for upside.
Say hypothetically that the Twins and Dodgers were competing directly for either one of these free agents. The Dodgers would *still* pay more for Dozier than the Twins would for DeLeon, because the Dodgers have a clear positional need for Dozier and the Twins have the likes of Polanco and Gordon waiting in the wings. The Dodgers need to win now, the Twins do not. The Dodgers have a glut of starting pitching– both established and prospects– and don’t need DeLeon. The Twins have solid pitching prospects, too, but have had a tough time transitioning them to the majors.
There is also the bonus of the Dodgers having exclusive negotiating rights with Dozier before he hits free agency, and the ability to offer him a qualifying offer a few years down the road.
Your 95% discount via arbitration number is patently absurd, by the way,. The abitration process much, much more closely approximates the real market value for probably 99% of baseball players than that. The 1% are the true elites (think Pujols or Cabrera), which DeLeon is not now and might never be. Even in the top of the top tier of players, your 95% number is extremely dubious.
In short– and to reiterate– you are very, very wrong, here.
Nope, you are both totally missing the point.
To estimate excess value you have to look at the years of team control for both players, which you are both completely ignoring. You have to estimate what the player would be likely to earn per year (not over a period of years) by applying comps. Maybe this is too easy or something, I don’t know, but you are both vastly overcomplicating the proposition by trying to throw in every possible permutation of every outcome, none of which are predictable.
And since this is my entire point, you are missing it entirely.
Yeah, Twins would get more years of control of DeLeon than the Dodgers would get (guaranteed) of Dozier. I get it. But…
…when you say you have to “estimate what the player would be likely to earn per year (not over a period of years) by applying comps,” what would your “comps” be for DeLeon?
DeLeon has a career 17 innings of 6.35 ERA ball. Dozier would make *significantly* more money on the free agent market than a comparable player to DeLeon. That’s our point.
cwhoswims dont you know all dodger prospects pan out so the twins would be getting a 6 years of a mid rotations starter thats much more valuable then 2 years of dozier a top 5 second baseman in the league
Pick any journeyman free agent starter you want. Does anybody get signed to start for under $10m per? Hardly. That’s what teams pay when they don’t have the player under contract. So that seems like a perfectly reasonable floor for comps.
I am granting that DeLeon barely has his feet wet in the majors, so this is where you have to go by the rankings and scouting reports to make some sort of educated assumption about whether it’s likely that he’s going to be a major league starter. If you think not, then his excess value is very small. If you think it’s likely he is going to be even a bottom-end starter, then computing excess value is a trivial exercise. Start with the first three years: whoever owns his contract gets a $10m per year market rate asset for the MLB minimum. And that my friend is a 95% discount, and exactly why GMs love team control.
If Dozier were a free agent today, he’s get a five year contract, probably. But that is not the issue. The issue is what he’d get per year. For those comps I am going with Justin Turner. I am prepared to generously rate Dozier’s annual value as the same as Turner’s, though to me Turner is the better player. So go that’s $16m per. Dozier is owed $15m over the next two seasons. So his current excess value is around $17m. Go ahead and make the Dodgers pay a premium for the lower risk of a two-year commitment. How much of a premium? Anything more than a $1m a season seems unreasonable to me.
So, bottom line, the excess value of two years of DeLeon as a starter is equivalent to the two years of excess value of Dozier, then the Twins have DeLeon under control for five years after that.
That is a specious, narrow-sighted, downright insane counterpoint.
In the 2015/16 offseason, 13 starting pitchers signed for an annual value of below your $10 million number (including, by the way, Yaisel Sierra). Nearly every one of the 13 is more marketable at this point in his career than is DeLeon.
It’s a list that includes proven mid-rotation arms, like Doug Fister, Rich Hill, Bud Norris, Ryan Vogelsong, and Mike Pelfrey. Yovani Gallardo– whose free agent stock is markedly higher than DeLeon’s hypothetical value– only got $11 million per year;
So far this offseason, Jhoulys Chacin, R.A. Dickey, Derek Holland, Jeff Locke, Charlie Morton, and Clayton Richard have all signed deals at lower than a $10 million per value; Edinson Volquez has signed for $11 million per.
There are some bad deals out there, of course, as there are every offseason. But it is not fair to say that they are setting the market.
Your problem(s) is either:
a.) that you are seriously overestimating DeLeon’s (hypothetical) free agent value as compared with the rest of the market. Filthy, Phantom, and I (and others) have tried to get you to understand this: DeLeon brings 0 value to any team that could acquire him, outside of his tools and his upside, or….
b.) you are seriously overestimating what the average going rate is for a 3-5 starter in the market right now, likely because you have seen the Dodgers overpay for a few (Brett Anderson, Rich Hill…). Now, I don’t personally blame the Dodgers for doing that….if you have a window to win, you can justify overpaying for the value-add on the field, especially if you are in a large market and well financially resourced.
But back to the point…..DeLeon carrying more value than Dozier right now, in $ amounts or otherwise? Yeah….no. Dozier is at least a top five player at his position, league-wide. DeLeon is nowhere near that, and may never be (at the point that he *actually* hit free agency, *perhaps* he would command *something* within the range of what the market would give Dozier per year right now).
What it boils down to, again, is that the Twins will trade a proven commodity for the upside, but it takes more than one high upside player to make those deals happen.
Thank you BlueSkyLA for clarifying.
Using ‘if he was a free agent’ seemed like quite the hypothetical, which in turn seemed like an attempt at an analogy. When you discuss market value like this, and I go back to re-read your initial comment, it all becomes much more clear.
It seemed like you were saying DeLeon would sign for more cash value than Dozier would right now when I first read.
Even if Dozier is truly arrived as a legitimate lineup force, teams don’t generally spend at 2B. To give Dozier a $16m per annual value seems generous but works well for this case. More than Murphy got but less than the arb rate that Walker took. Excess around $17m over 2 seasons would be quite nice, but the cost is the real question.
List goes on and on for average starting pitchers making over $10 mill. Seems fair to give DeLeon a $10m per annual value if he figures to be part of a rotation for the most part. At league minimum, he doesn’t need to become a star, just needs to give some decent innings. Easy to argue that he could flop and you wanna trade for proven talent, but the odds usually reward the team that values young, controllable pitching.
Safe to assume the Dodgers feel confident that they could plug in a stopgap at 2B and keep the cheap pitching asset, rather than making a shortsighted move. The Dodgers recent regime seems to be more disciplined than I’ve grown to expect as an outsider. The ability to have the payroll on the verge of not being comically ridiculous is quite impressive. Get Ethier involved in the trade talks to even up the value?! Now I’m really getting crazy with it.
Good chat baseball fans. Thanks for backing my case originally gang, I truly think there are many ways to look at it, and must say I can see BlueSkyLA’s point much better now. Cheers all.
So 6 years of a small chance of those guys turning into a regular, not a star a regular, in the majors isn’t worth a minimum of 2 years of a proven 4+ WAR player? DeLeon is the best of them and his ceiling is a #3-#4 starter. I hope the Dodgers are dumb enough to stubbornly hold on to the prospects it will take to trade for Dozier. Then the rest of the West can just run out any LHP and get incredible results against them again. We loved that .213 BA against LHP by your hitters last year. On MLB Network today, they were saying that the LHP that the Dodgers faced last year had an ERA of nearly 5.00 against the rest of baseball.
That strategy worked really well last year when the Dodgers WON the Division easily and came close to the WS. Clueless Pads fans crack me up.
lol that’s the point they would of made the World Series if they had a good RH hitter ……. Game 5 of a 2-2 series and Carlos Ruiz is batting 4
There are indications that the Dodgers are higher on Buehler than De Leon, hence the refusal to include him in a deal for Dozier. De Leon is absolutely MLB-ready, but there are feelings that he’s going to top out as a 3/4 type..whereas Buehler (while far away) has top of the rotation potential. That nearly three digit fastball and good feel for his offspeed stuff is worth salivating over.
Hypothetically, if De Leon were on another team, the Dodgers wouldn’t trade Buegler for him straight up. They are super high on him.
And Alvarez…
I don’t see how they are being ridiculous. If there was a better offer on the market than DeLeon and Stewart plus plus then the Twins should sincerely take it. Fact is the Dodgers are playing the market correctly. Dozier could definitely help but so could Kinsler, Forsythe, Braun, McCutchen etc…Fact being power and the RH bat don’t have to come from second. The market is flooded with power and potentially better hitters. I personally would love if they moved on from Dozier. The Dodgers have no need to bid themselves up. The problem the Twins are facing is there’s not a significant need at 2nd and the Dozier market isn’t exploding in fierce competition.
Keeping Dozier is not a problem for the Twins. He outperforms his contract. 2B is the most open spot on the Dodgers to get the RH bat. I don’t see anything in FA filling this need. If they wish to forfeit a draft pick for Trumbo or Bautista and add to an overcrowded OF, they will have a poor defensive OF and a hole at 2B. I also don’t see any of those other players you mentioned getting traded to LA. Doesn’t seem like they are meeting anyone’s asking price. If I’m the Twins, I got nothing to lose by waiting til my price gets met.
Kinsler can’t be traded to the West Coast without his permission and he has made clear that he doesn’t want to go west as 7 of the 10 teams on his no-trade list are in the west. He also has made it clear he wants a long-term extension with a commitment for him to stay at 2B to even consider a trade. He would also take a large package of prospects likely headed by De Leon.
And your point being? I know all of this. I assume your question is would I rather see the Dodgers shell a huge package for Kinsler? And my answer would be: Yes if they are going to shell out a huge prospect package I’d rather it be for Kinsler. Pretty plain and simple
In terms of 2b who might be available at the deadline I’d prefer Forsythe. I mean it’s pretty simple plug and play at 2nd or in the LF. It’s not like the Dodgers have a serious logjam in the OF that can’t be fixed. Pederson is truly the only guy you can pencil in more days than not. Toles and Thompson have options. They’ll finally rid themselves of terrible contracts in Ethier and CC at years end. Puig can be moved if there is an upgrade. It simple a RH bat with some pop is needed. In theory the Dodgers and twins fit in simple terms of needs. My only comment being the Twins don’t need to move him although it’d probably behave them to move him. The Dodgers need a RH bat but it’s not as though the only option now and at the deadline is Dozier. It may be at some point mid season, but right now he’s not the only option.
Figured the Rangers would have signed Napoli already, so there must be a chasm in their negotiations.
agreed…something is up..
Freidman is always stingy with his trades, Deleon is the best prospect that the Twins will get for Dozier. The problem is that the Twins think they should get more for Dozier and the Dodgers won’t budge, Other teams haven’t given them a better package, so they will kept on coming back to the Dodgers,
Or perhaps the Dodgers keep coming back to the Twins. See, the Twins control the player, it’s the Dodger who have the need.
Why can’t a De Leon/Calhoun for Dozier deal get done? Calhoun can rake!
I love how LA has stuck with their word on certain guys in the minors. It looks like Bellinger and Alvarez are off the table. I’d be okay not acquiring Dozier rather than trade one of those two.
The fact that every dodger fan is suggesting Deleon plus Calhoun tells you that Calhoun isn’t actually worth much. He can’t play defense at all. And the twins don’t need a DH.
I guarantee that if the trade happens the second piece will be more significant than Calhoun.
Heyman really is a turd. None of this is news it’s just speculation that we’ve heard a million times before. And Heyman complains about the Dodgers being stingy with their prospects? Lol get a clue. How does his guy have such a high profile job?
Then he sites wins when talking about Jared Weaver and says it’s an accomplishment that he got 12 wins last year? Wins? Wins?!?! He should be fired on the spot.
Brandon Moss is an excellent fit for the 2017 Phillies. They need a LH power bat/part-time player/pinch hitter/1B/corner OF option, whom they can possibly flip at the deadline for a prospect or two. Perfect fit.
I am not a Dodgers’ fan, but I do not consider them stingy its that they know what the type of talents / top prospects they have. I’m not a really fan of teams rebuilding in expense of hurting other teams farm system. That is not wise giving so many prospects for only one player that only has a few years to be a free agent.
1988 is a long time ago. Dozier gives them a large piece of what they need to break the losing streak before it gets to 30 yrs.. I doubt you will ever find a Cubs fan who laments giving up top prospects for 3 months of Chapman no matter how good those prospects turn out.
I don’t think most teams, especially a freidman run team is going to build their team with the thought to specifically avoid a 30 year drought.
The cubs trading that much for Chapman was and still is a huge overpayment. There is no way to know what would have happened without him. Just like there is no way to know if adding dozier will actually change anything for the dodgers. The playoffs are largely a crapshoot.
Really? The Royals gave up top prospects for Zobrist and Cueto.
The Red Sox gave up Hanley and Anibal Sanchez to win in 2007 even though they had won in 2004.
The Giants gave up prospects for Hunter Pence.
Those are winners, I could name plenty of losers. The A’s trade for John Lester etc.
If the Dodgers don’t win in the next three yrs because they sat on prospects — most of whom will fail to live up to the Hype — there will be a new front office. You win or go home.
On the other hand, A’s trading for Lester, Hammel, and Samarjidza killed their team and farm and they haven’t recovered. And what about all those times the Tigers went for it and failed?
If a team got the benefit of hindsight, i’m sure they’d be far more likely to trade prospects too.
How much do you think adding someone like Dozier actually improves the LAD’s chance of winning a world series? ~1%, maybe?
The trade for those two didnt kill the farm.
Lester cost them cespedes. Didnt impact the farm whatsoever
Samardjza and Hammel cost them Russel, Mckinney, Straily. Beane later traded samardjza for pitchers ynoa bassit plus semien and phelgy and ravelo. Semien replaces what russel would of been and mckinney hasnt made a big league jump.
What has killed the A’s is how much the donaldson trade and Zobrist trade havent produced much.
I said killed the team and farm. The Lester /Cespedes killed their team.
A poor example. The A’s are the original run it on the cheap team. Just because they to try to dive though an open window once in awhile doesn’t mean they’d be more right to have never tried.
Dodgers ‘odds’ of winning need more than dozier closing their holes.
Kind of odd that the dodgers are actually out of sync with both position alignment and timing of high end prospects reaching MLB …
Agree that odds improve <5% with the singular move for dozier.
They have tons of prospects coming up, but none that line up with the gaps on the 25/40 rosters. They can trade for (or sign) to close gaps .. or just play the cards they have (with the odds that come with it)
I agree that there is a “bad mix” of talent that needs to be fixed. One needed piece would be a Rt handed power bat at 2b.
They can fill the other needs with prospect trades during the season as they come up. But there needs to be a real attempt to win.
A World Series ring on the finger is worth ANY prospect. There is no such thing as an overpay in that case. If the Dodgers are not willing to trade prospects that may or may not pan out years from now, then they deserve to not get to the WS again in 2017.
What you continuously fail to understand is that adding Dozier doesn’t automatically get them to the world series, it actually has very little effect on their chances of winning.
So your point is that teams shouldn’t try to fill their weak spots. The Atlanta Braves were the best team in baseball for 14 yrs and won one WS. The Marlins have never won the division but won 2 WS. In 2013 the Red Sox and Cards had the best record in MLB and played for the WS. A truly rare event. Once you get down to the last 8 teams each has a 12.5% chance to be the Champ. The Cards were a wild card when they beat the Tigers and had the best record in MLB in 2007 when then got swept by the Sox. Yes the Cubs were the best this yr and won the WS but that is the exception not the rule. The Giants would not have won three WS without Cody Ross, Hunter Pence, a number of other role players. It is the GM’s duty to fill all possible holes when the team has a chance. Look at the Nats and the Dodgers of the last several yrs as teams that could have done more but chose to save the farm and go home early. I will take Dave D. as my leader any day. At least he goes for it when the chance is there. The 2013 Tigers looked unbeatable until Hunter ran into the wall. Even the 2016 Cubs came oh so close to losing.
Any Cubs fan that is worried that Torres goes to the HOF is an idiot.
You are just proving the point by saying the marlins won 2 ws as wild card teams. There is no need to mortgage your future to field the “best team” because the best team rarely wins. With the 2 wild card spots, it’s smart for a team to just be at least wc competitive as much as possible. The dodgers already are. Filling their “hole” at 2nd base doesn’t actually improve their chances of winning all that much.
The indians were an incredibly flawed team and took the best team in the regular season to 7 games in a world series. Playoffs are too small of a sample for true talent to actually win frequently. Get in and hope for some performance and sequencing luck.
Killed the team yes. Killed the farm not even close. Which the entire response addressed.
Semien replaced russel
Mckinney isnt in the bigs
Straily was replaced by bassit
The samardjza and hammel trade didnt kill the farm as beane essentially swapped russel straily and mckinney for semien phelgy ravelo bassit and ynoa.
And as I said before- the donaldson and zobrist trade which they could of netted more has cost them.
And the Madres have won how many World Series? Waiting………waiting………..waiting….
1988 is a long time ago, but it’s still 80 years more recent than 1908. As a Dodger fan for over 60 years, I’m willing to give Andy and Friends a couple more years to put things together exactly the way they want to. If that means hanging on to prospects, so be it. I would, however, be extremely surprised if they don’t put a few trades together before long. They seem to like to make them in bunches.
It’s clear the Twins are lacking leverage when they fake stories to the media to drug up interest. They continue to feed Heyman and their beat writers garbage, but I highly doubt Freidman panics and caves in.
Outside of teams inside the top 10 with protected first rounders wouldn’t the Jays signing him make the MOST sense as they are punting a comp. pick as opposed to a pick in the teens or early twenties…not sure many of those top 10 make sense for Jose anyway..and if the Jays can so easily explain away not “punting” a comp pick then can’t rebuilding teams use the same logic for not wanting to part with an early 2nd!? For a team supposedly in it to win it in 2017 the Jays sure arent acting like it…how is Jose on a 1 or 2 year deal not the perfect signing as it pertains to this teams timeframe to really compete? In 2 years Donaldson is an FA, Martin and Tulo probably don’t have much left in the tank and Sanchez, Stro and Osuna will all be that much closer to FA. I really don’t get it…get after it while you still can shove the pick. Jose is going to shut a lot of people up in 2017 I just hope he does it in a Jays uniform smashing Baltimore pitching to high hell.
I agree. Not sure what this FOs plan is for this year? Are we trying to compete or just filling out a roster for a year before a rebuild?
I’m so sick of this talk about the jays not resigning Bautista so they can draft a player who will probably never see the major leagues
Tell that to Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard and Brett Cecil. All compensation picks by the Jays in recent years.
Teams value a compensation pick at about 8-10 million. It’s not that the jays don’t want Bautista at all, just that they would want to pay 10 million less than what they expect to receive from him to offset the pick. Really tough on a 1 year deal (see Ian Desmond last year).
This hurts the players a lot and is why the QO was a major issue in CBA talks
Yeah but, the Rogers Centre has been packed the last 2 years, nobodies pre buying tickets if your not putting a contender on the field. 3M ppl to what, 1.5M again? That decrease will be on Shapiro and cost a lot more than 8-10 M.
white sox make no sense
Even if the Dodgers get Dozier, their chance of winning it all in 2017 is a crapshoot. It is smarter to maintain the loaded farm system and show patience. Dozier is a decent player. But certainly not the guy to gut the system for. If the Twins don’t want DeLeon, that works for me. I would rather keep him, re-sign Utley and let him platoon with Hernandez. They can survive without Dozier’s 18 homeruns and .240 BA.
18 hrs now dodgers fans love lowballing dont they?
He is Uggla Pt 2.
saying 18 hrs for dozier is a joke and you know it, yea he is dan uggla if for some reason he loses the ability to run and field…. uggla 10 years with a career war of 17..6 while dozier has 5 (4.5) seasons of a war of 18.4 its funny how people think dozier is not and star player at his position
Ehh that’s over exaggerating a little bit according to fan graphs he’s had 2 seasons of 4.5 war equaling 16WAR.
That being said Uggla was a flat butcher in the field so that’s not fair at all. He also Kd a lot. Although he did have way better obp, a little more power, and better OPS before his career went downhill. Then again the decline doesn’t mean much if it’s only for two years. But yes it’s not really a straightforward comp. Its sort of a lazy comp.
Ok i was using baseball reference they have him at 3.7, 5.2, 2.4, and 6.5 over the last 4 seasons . And one of doziers best assets is his ability to run bases 15 sb and scoring a 100 runs every year with the twins lineup hitting the only thing theyhave in common is power and average take that way from both of them dozier is 10 times more valuable the uggla
WAR is a silly made-up stat that math nerds invented to make them look like they know sports. It isn’t a real thing. There isn’t even a recognized formula to calculate WAR. It depends on which nerd you like better. So don’t bore me with WAR. I see Dozier as a .240 hitter with a decent glove and a little pop.
35 doubles and 28 homeruns averages the last 4 seasons i guess that is just a little pop and 16 stolenbases per year this averages would have led the dodgers in hormeruns stolenbases and would have been second in doubles
What an embarrassing post. Not much more can be said about it.
18 home runs. Is that your prediction for the first or second half?
In fairness, his power numbers would likely decline in Dodger Stadium.
But the Uggla comparison is ridiculous.
And the “if the Twins don’t want DeLeon” talk? Lol, ok….take your ball and go home, then. The Twins have (in no particular order) Berrios, Mejia, Gonsalves, Stewart, and Tyler Jay all showing promise of making substantial contributions to a major league rotation. Yes, DeLeon would be nice. He is probably the most established and you could argue the highest upside. Plus, it is always good to have the insurance. But the Twins are not going to die a slow painful death just because they don’t manage to trade for DeLeon.
The bottom line is that a deal makes too much sense to not get done, especially for the Dodgers (which bodes well for the Twins).
lol Target field plays just as big as any Park
To the alleys, yes. Not to the foul poles.
Dozier has averaged 27 homers/season in his career. He draws walks, plays good defense and is a really good baserunner and base stealer. He’s nothing like Uggla at all.
Gut the System ?
Want the Cards to bring Moss back
I’m seeing oakland signing Colby Rasmus for 2 years 20 million to fill a solid corner outfield spot, then trade Jed and prospects for a cheap center fielder like Jarrod Dyson.
the market for Rasmus has dropped significantly because of Injuries last season, but would help provide solid offensive WAR, and a trade for Dyson would give Oakland some defense and speed back since Burns and Coco departure.
Colby Lewis has been pretty good the last couple years when he’s been able to take the mound. He seems like a better gamble by the Padres than Peavy, who was pretty bad last year, and Weaver, who was absolutely terrible last season.
It’s likely the Dodgers are being “stingy” because they gave up three solid pitching pitching prospects in the Reddick/Hill trade. The Twins want pitchers and that took away a decent chunk of their pitching depth making it difficult to part with even more of their better arms. If they don’t make that trade, Dozier is likely a Dodger right now.
Except I don’t know if that’s necessarily true. They signed and put so much money into Alvarez that he’s not going to be moved. It’s interesting to see what he develops into as they skipped previous signing period for him. Buehler you get the felling he’s not going to be moved low point of his value. Cotton profiles a little bit lower than DeLeon. Yes he had a tremendous intro to the league, but I’m not sold seeing as ML hitters will make that adjustment to his cutter. Although, he was a favorite prospect so I hope he absolutely shoves. Holmes has struggled badly and it’s a question whether his control and stuff works better in the pen. Montas has an explosive fb but it’s the same question. I’m not sure that those would be the “high” upside arms the twins are interested in. They fall more on the bigger risk spectrum. It’s not so much the depth aspect as they appear to willing to trade DeLeon and Stewart. I think it’s more they are trying to buy RH power on somewhat the cheap and def don’t really see Dozier as the 2016 version, but a 20-25 hr guy that could possibly develop into a decent obp, hit LHP, and play decent defense.
Trumbo to the Cardinals?? Or, trade for Dozier??? Or, do nothing?????
Then I guess the Dodgers will remain Dozier-less. They’ve got to get over this idea that they’re getting Dozier with only De Leon and middling prospects.
Right. I get their desire to hold onto top prospects, but the Twins need to be extremely motivated to move Dozier.
If the Dodgers aren’t similarly motivated to get him, then I don’t understand why the GMs are wasting one another’s time….
The Twins are in a fortunate position with Dozier.
They can keep him, the fans would be happy and understand the logic, he would likely produce, and they have two more trade deadlines and one more offseason to move him, if need be.
They can trade him for DeLeon, one more of LA’s top-20ish prospects, and a throw-in. The fans would be happy and understand the logic, some combination of other middle infielders likely lead by Polanco would produce around league average OPS and WAR, and they would begin the process of stacking their rotation for the long run.
The only way they lose is if they trade him for too small a return, and for a team that maintained it wasn’t actively looking to trade him at all as recently as a few months ago, that seems highly unlikely.
im at the point now its no point to trade him unless they get a plus return. bring him back and sell some seats. there is no way that every one on the roster has a down year again like last year.
Would be perfect for the Angels to get Nap back, but super unlikely to happen with his relationship with Sosh š
Because the team needs another combo 1B/DH who hits RH?
Really? Pujols and Cron aren’t enough of the 24-man roster to devote to that very specific niche? Especially since Pujols will be exclusively a DH until June or July while he rehabs from his foot surgery?
There is simply no “Help Wanted” sign posted at the stadium fitting Napoli’s profile.
He hits RH, but he kills lefties. Angels definitely need that. Look up some stats before talking bruh.