Some rumblings from around the NL West…
- The Rockies formally announced their 2017 coaching staff, including new hires Tony Diaz (first base coach), Duane Espy (hitting coach), Jeff Salazar (assistant hitting coach) and Ron Gideon (major league coach). This is Espy’s second stint as Colorado’s hitting coach, having previously worked in the job from 2003-06 under then-manager Clint Hurdle. Diaz, Salazar and Gideon are all getting their first experience working on a big league coaching staff, though they’re all longtime fixtures in the Rockies organization.
- In an insightful and wide-ranging interview with FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, Jimmy Rollins discusses such topics as his new minor league deal with the Giants, his abbreviated 2016 season and whether or not he considered retirement after parting ways with the White Sox last summer.
- The Giants are amassing several utility infielders, leading SB Nation’s Grant Brisbee to wonder if the team could be building depth for a potential trade. Rollins joins Kelby Tomlinson, Ramiro Pena, Ehire Adrianza, Juniel Querecuto and Orlando Calixte as candidates to fill infield roles in the majors or Triple-A. Beyond a trade, the Giants could simply be preparing to have an open battle for the utility job in Spring Training, or getting added depth given Joe Panik‘s injury history.
- Jose De Leon has been rumored to be a central piece of a potential Dodgers trade package for Brian Dozier, and while the Twins are justified in asking for more beyond just the young righty, Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron writes that Minnesota shouldn’t get cavalier about passing on a very talented young arm. Interestingly, Cameron suggests that if the Twins are concerned about De Leon’s long-term potential, they could still make the trade, give De Leon an extended audition in the big leagues in 2017 and then look to deal him next winter. In theory, De Leon would have even more trade value at this point as a controllable young pitcher with some MLB experience.
The Twins are going to overplay their hand, just like the Johan Santana trade
I sure hope not…. but they’ve disappointed me for so long
That is certainly my fear.
Let’s give the new guys a bit more credit than them being the second coming of Bill Smith and Terry Ryan. They deserve a bit more credit than that.
Man remember Hurdle at the Helm of the Rockies? Good times…
Yeah….they had some pitching too. Jimenez and Francis. The thought of them even having league avg pitching is frightening.
The Giants are mastering the art of giving playing time to a UTL guy no one has ever heard of before. Juniel Querecuto? Que???
….please stop
Even giants fans haven’t heard of him. He hasn’t actually played for us yet.
Also, who is Calixte?
minor league free agent signing
it’s code for Calexit I think.
Former Royals nobody.
Calixte has great defense and solid power. He needs to learn how to hit offspeed stuff tho. Still young.
It’s called depth…….
De Leon for Dozier is obviously not enough. It is essential that the small market teams get maximum value in these types of trades.
Agree, Cameron’s suggestion is flawed because if he gets hurt or pitches poorly he’ll have less value than now, plus more MLB service time
How is his logic flawed? All youre basically saying is he’s a pitcher so hes risky. Which dave cameron clearly mentioned as a caveat.
Then you forget to mention how he went on to say that JDL could go from 2005 james shields to 2008 james shields trajectory and value wise. But i guess hes just all risk and no potential at all
Dave Cameron has shown throughout the years that he should leave evaluating prospects to the people who do it professionally. Google his impressions of prospect robinson cano
It’s not that DeLeon is a pitcher, it’s that he has already suffered an injury that typically leads to Tommy John surgery or at the very least significant time lost on the DL. Cameron is great at looking at major league stats, but he leaves a lot to be desired at evaluating trades involving prospects. Since Cameron is very into sabermetrics, let’s look at this from an advanced metric standpoint. According to Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and ESPN’s Keith Law, DeLeon is projected to have a ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. That is a 3 WAR pitcher. Dozier put up a 5.9 WAR last year and is a 4.6 WAR player on average the past 3 seasons. Dozier’s floor is higher than DeLeon’s ceiling. That is not a trade you make if you are the Twins.
Great assessment. DeLeon is not as valuable to the Twins as Dozier is. I still don’t see them trading him this winter. While he is their best trade piece, how do they replace his production even with the likely regress? They need a package with significantly more than DeLeon.
….except it’s two years of Dozier vs 6 years of De Leon. If they hit on those projections, then the Twins’ yield in WAR is double that of the Dodgers with just De Leon. Of course, he has to stay healthy for that to happen, and therein lies the risk. What can ya say? Prospects break your heart.
It’s not about replacing Dozier’s production over the final two years of his contract, because they won’t be contending anyway. It’s about getting a maximum return for the future, beyond the length of his contract, while his value is likely at its peak, as is the case with any team which is focused on rebuilding instead of contending. The Twins are not holding off on trading Dozier because they want a package in return which will replace his production, they are holding off on a trade because they want more and/or better pieces for the future. That is MLB 101.
yes but if your not getting a good return there is no point to trade him
De Leon is not ready to contribute 34 games in 2017. He simply cannot be stretched out that far after 103.1 IP in 2016. His cap will be around 140 IP. So the first year you can even think about a full season from him is 2018. That is IF he doesn’t get hurt and IF he isn’t turned into a reliever. Too many ifs and too long before he can contribute a full season to make sense for the Twins as a straight up trade or even for a trade that doesn’t include another prospect or two that can contribute in the majors now or very soon. The Twins are not in a position where they can take that kind of risk.
Every capable scout in baseball makes mistakes.
DeLeon lost time to a forearm strain last year. It’s pretty close to 100% that forearm strains turn into significant time on the DL and better than 90% from Tommy John surgery. Too big of a risk for the Twins all by himself. The Twins biggest holes are in the middle infield. DeLeon and a couple of middle infield prospects like Johnson and Estevez probably get that deal done.
When did he lose time to a forearm strain? He lost time for an ankle and shoulder inflammation. So no he did not lose time for a forearm strain.
Well he’s a Padres fan so we know they lie and don’t keep proper records on anything lmaooo
De Leon had that ankle injury in early April. He made his season debut on May 3rd and then was placed on the minor league DL on May 9th with a forearm strain according to Bill Shaikin of the LA Times. He spent the entire month of May on the DL. His next appearance wasn’t until June 7th. Also according to Bill Shaikin, he was held out of the AAA All-Star game on July 13th because he “experienced shoulder soreness after his July 6th start against the Sky Sox”. Being a Padres fan doesn’t mean I don’t know what is going on in baseball.
By the way, Bill Shaikin works for the LA Times. Maybe you should read him sometimes,
Except Shaikin back tracked and acknowledged the injury was shoulder inflammation. Try again. If you’re suggesting I read the LA times that tells you how uniformed you are. Why would I read a newspaper that is written for an 8th grade comprehension level. Come on besides McCollough it’s a flat joke.
There’s also this guy named Andrew Miller who had a forearm strain without Tommy John. Not sure if anyone has heard of him though
Here is the problem you just generalized forearm strain and jumped straight to a percentage of TJ. You didn’t even stop to mention the grading systems of a forearm strain. Sure forearm strain at a significant grade can be a precursor to TJ. Or in most cases it can also mean a kid tried to ramp it up to fast. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen the latter happen to college kids. The problem truly lies with someone has structural damage to the ligament. If there is structural damage to a ligament your not seeing them for about 6 months plus or depending on the damage straight to TJ. It’s the same as if a guy sprains and ankle are people quick to judge and say he tore a ligament? Regardless the first thing people jump to prematurely is arm soreness equals forearm strain when in fact that’s not true at all. If there was any question at all about his health the talk of him potentially pitching in the WBC would have been shut down from the word go. It might have been unfair to say you were misinformed but it’s just frustrating for people to jump to conclusions and perpetuate a fallacy.
All in all it’s simple his floor is a MOR starter because he doesn’t sit at 94-96 even though he can touch it. He’s a fb/ch guy and that’s not in vogue in today’s game. And a lot of list base those on rep and velo. JDL truly reminds me of what Marco Estrada has become. To say JDL has very little value is ridiculous. I’m not sure what people are expecting RK pitchers to do but usually during their first year they are just average. He’s made adjustments at every level and he’s a pretty advance pitcher.
Eh, 2 years of Dozier (who won’t be cheap in arbitration) isn’t worth much more than De Leon. Maybe a couple minor pieces but that’s it.
Crap, he signed an extension didn’t he? So no arbitration. That adds a little more value than I though considering his salary is fixed over those two years.
Maybe do your research before hitting “Send”?
Yeah, Dozier is worth quite a bit more than an injury-prone De Leon, even if he is a talented pitcher.
Not by any useful, real-world measure, he isn’t.
Nobody is saying it’s de Leon for dozier but dodgers other piece sure not gonna be Alvarez or bellinger or even bueler because the nats are idiots and overpay doesn’t mean dodgers are de Leon is a future #2-3 by future I mean about 2 years that will probably be winning about 10-16 games a year if the twins put a decent team on offense bellinger is a future 30 hr + guy that hits for good average , 2 years of 246 avg dozier isn’t worth that because he had a great year don’t get me wrong I knownyou have to give up talent to get talent and of course I’d love dozier in the dodgers but what they’d be demanding is a joke it’s almost like when the Marlins were asking for seager Pederson and urias for Fernandez I don’t like to be talking about this now because of what happened but I wanted to use the example and last year before anything happened I said I wouldn’t even do seager for Fernandez staight up
Dude you need a few periods and commas in there… I got so winded trying to read that…
Should be a comma after “good”. Would have brought that joke home.
I know I saw that but was just lazy to kinda knew you’d notice
haha etc.:
“Lazy” is an understatement. But it is a refreshing bit of self-awareness not exhibited heretofore.
BTW, that’s such a clever name…..
For the Dodgers to get a R handed power bat like Dozier….who they truly need I believe it’ll take DeLeon, Calhoun, another power arm like Sheffield who they got in this past June’s draft from Vandy and maybe an OF prospect like Mieses. Dozier’s been good for the last three years….93 HR’s, 257 RBI’s over that time and this last year he had an OPS of.886 and a batting average of .268 in a lineup that is nowhere close to as good as the Dodgers’ lineup. Those are very good numbers for a young 2B… He also had 35 doubles and 18 stolen bases last year. The Tribe got bold and went and got Edwin… Come on Dodgers let’s see your boldness !!!!! It’ll be 29 years in 2017 since we celebrated Gibby’s bomb and the victory over the A’s…. Go for it!!!!
Nobody ever said just de leon for dozier. Not even dave Cameron
Everybody with a brain simply said: take de leon while you can if youre smart, don’t overplay your hand before the dodgers lose interest and back out
Translation: no yadier Alvarez, yes willie calhoun and depends which lottery prospects you want.
The dodgers aren’t dave stewart trying to acquire Shelby miller lol
De Leon and Calhoun is too much IMO
Didn’t realize dozier signed an extension thru 2018 for relatively cheap. So maybe De Leon and Calhoun is about right.
Hes getting paid 15million when hes worth like 60 million (asssuming hes worth 8 war next 2 years)
So his surplus value is something like 40-50 million
2 top 100 prospects is in no way a light return (i realize calhoun is borderline top 100 since he only made sum top 100 lists) for 40-50 surplus value.
Dodgers are in the ballpark. Twins are just going for extra bases
twins want more upsided then a 22 year old dh in calhoun
and if they dont get extra bases they can walk away and there fan base will be happy. i cant say the same for dodger fans if the run utley out there or someone like that
Or Forsythe. Or Kinsler. Hell even Solarte.
The Twin fanbase should be just as disappointed in holding on to Dozier as the Dodgers fanbase would be if they were stuck with another Utley situation. All or nothing usually leads to disappointment.
I wish the brewers had a better 2b that way we could do some sort of Braun and 2b trade but they don’t :/
Forsythe is a brian dozier minus the power and a little better d good luck with that kinsler has a no trade claus to cali teams for a reason is 35 and 36 cost twice as much as dozier before whatever u have to give him to wave the claus
joe: Please don’t “wave the claus”. We need him for Christmas deliveries.
Too soon..
below average arm, speed, and well below average range
twins just need to walk far away from this trade keep him for 2 years a leader, a 4.5 war player over the last 4 years, team friendly contract, a fan favorite who puts fans in the stand. 2 years from now twins have almost 50 mil coming off the books and can look at a new deal. the dodgers need a good 2baseman to contend the twins dont need a mid rotation starter and a 22 year old dh to help not contend. if they dont get what they want no reason to make the trade
This made no sense at all you’re basically saying twins are losers and have no need to be future winners as long as we have one guy that keeps a few of our fans happy?? That’s if he keeps up those numbers which i doubt hahah it’s sad how loser fans of losing teams think they’re happy just to be part of it
no baseball is a business some teams like the dodgers yankees and others have the money to contend every year other teams like 2/3 of the league fight to make money and once every 5 to 10 years or so they have a shot to contend for a small window of 2 or 3 years thats just the business of baseball when you have some teams spending 200 million a year on payroll and most teams spending under 100 millon on payroll
Doesn’t matter you said future prospects aren’t worth it keeping a guy that keeps a few of our fans happy for 2 ‘more years is better even tho we’re gonna be losers and you know for a damn fact dozier is gonna hit at most 25 this year whether in Minnesota or LA that’s the most he’s gonna hit so stop acting like he’s this year after year 40+ hr guy that’s hitting for a high avg he ain’t that great
im not but saying he wont hit more then 25 is just as much of a joke as the people who think he will hit 40 just looking at his numbers he is a lock for 25-32 hrs and 33-37 doubles
“loser fans of losing teams”, coming from a Brewers fan …. ironic.
Then why say “we” when referring to Brewers fans? I know, you didn’t think before purging at the keyboard again.
@Joe +1
I’ve said the same. Twins need to not get cute. If they think DeLeon is a legit MLB arm, even if he’s only a 3 or 4, they need to make the deal. If they don’t, then no amount of extra prospects matter.
What would be a fair offer from the Dodgers prospect wise for Josh Harrison if the Dozier talks break down?
not to much a below mlb average player who had one good season 3 years ago who is owed 18 million for 2 years and another 1,5 mil in byouts
The Twins know absolutely that De Leon is NOT a #3 or #4 in 2017. Maybe in 2018. He will only be able to make about 20 starts or so in 2017 if he is healthy and effective. In 2018 De Leon may be able to pitch a full season, but since Dozier’s value at the 2017 trading deadline will not drop precipitously if any from where it is now since he is still under team control for 2018 at a very affordable price, there is no reason for the Twins to make a trade just for the sake of making a trade. If Dozier puts up .250 with 18-20 HR by the All Star break, some team desperate for a run at the playoffs will still pay through the nose for him. The Dodgers are going to have to pony up a pretty good package headed by De Leon if they want Dozier.
The problem with waiting until the trade deadline is that Dozier can tank and lose value. You say “if Dozier puts up a .250 avg with 18-20 HR’s before the break” but that’s a big IF. It’s not impossible, but Dozier is extremely streaky. He’s definitely a very good 2B, but a streaky one. Plus, are there going to be teams at the deadline who desperately need a 2B? Teams generally go nuts over SP and RP at the deadline. I think Deleon plus would still likely be the best offer unless someone loses their 2B for the season, which is very hard for the Twins to count on happening.
From July 2015 through Oct 2015 he hit: .206/.275/.367 with 12 HR’s. That’s a terrible line.
Then in April through May of 2016 he hit: .202/.294/.329 with 5 HR’s. Again, terrible.
It shows his streakiness, though this is an extreme example of course, but it’s a very recent extreme example and it certainly could happen again.
That’s technically six months of terrible hitting, but spread over two different seasons. Which makes his June 2016 to Oct 2016 all the more amazing (.294/.358/.631 with 37 HR’s)…but he can’t wait that long to go crush it. That would mean he wouldn’t be traded until next offseason…in which he will also lose value because he’s a one year rental then. And if he does tank in the first half of the season again, he won’t even be worth Deleon alone, let alone Deleon plus.
To me it’s too risky to not trade Dozier right now. Of course don’t just “take anything” but I don’t consider Deleon to be just “anything.” I’m a Deleon fan..but they certainly need more than just him to get this done. It can’t be Deleon plus table scraps.
Exactly dozier is a great player I just feel like two teams have really messed up the trade market the nationals and the dbacks giving up way too much ,I guess you give up a lot when you’re desperate, but twins should know dodgers front office never gets desperate even when sometimes I feel we need to be they never make a decision on pressure so they won’t be the national or dbacks and give a ridiculous package. There is not a big marker for dozier almost everybody has a set 2b and the teams who don’t don’t have a need for him. Twins are expecting a sale type of return but let’s be real I know we’re talking hitter and pitchers two different things but it can still be compared dozier isn’t at sales level and we know he’s not gonna put up the same numbers next year I could bet on anything all his numbers will drop so the twins need to realize they will never get more than right now
I don’t think the Twins are expecting a Sale type return. If they are then they need a new front office already. They did say they need to be “wowed” but that could mean different things to different people based on their definition of “wowed” and how that equates to prospects.
And I agree that they will never get more and Dozier’s numbers will drop. I just see him being more of the 2014 Dozier than the 2015 or 2016 Dozier. And 2014 Dozier was still an all star level player. I don’t think anyone in the world thinks Dozier is going to put up 2016 numbers again.
Yeah , and about de Leon I already see it 2-3 years from now him making the all star team two years in a row and me thinking damn we could have had him urias and kerahaw and possibly someone else in the future who knows what happens with the dodgers but sometimes you have to give up future talent to get talent now and of course it could not pan out but I’m very positive he will I like his stuff more than urias
This is what’s in projecting from dozier if he were traded to LA and This is injury free throw out the year , if things gokd bad I say 235 ba. 13 hr 55 RBI if things go good – 278 ba 25 hr 85 RBI what do you think??
Bad: .240 BA, 20 HRs, 75 RBI
Good: .270, 30 HR’s, 95 RBI
I don’t know where they would plan on batting him but he was mostly a lead off guy and hit a lot of solo HR’s because no one in front of him was ever on base. That’s why his RBI totals aren’t way better than they are. 70 percent of his career home runs have been solo and 59 percent of his career plate appearances have had no one on base. I think both numbers seem higher than the average player but that’s just my assumption. I don’t know the stats for the average player. To me, Dozier fits best at five in a lineup.
He would probably lead off for us it’d be something like dozier seager turner gonzo or dozier someone else. Seager turner gonzo …. or hahah Pederson dozier seager turner gonzo I think it would be one of those 3 lineups
The problem is Dozier will rake against lhp but struggles and is average against rhp. So in terms of lineup he’s 1 or 2 against lhp. Against rhp he’s probably pushed down to around 5 spot.
Don’t you think since we resigned turner and jansen we should go for it all and trade for Braun and dozier ? As long as we don’t trade urias and bellinger which we wouldn’t have too for those trade ohband Alvarez we would have 5 good cheap young players to build the team around for the future that would include seager and Pederson your whole team doesn’t need to be cheap rookies as long as you have a small core of them the rest can come off the market. I think we’re wasting kershaws prime there’s no pitching out there and I think to get a top pitcher we would have to give up bellinger and that wouldn’t be smart so I think we should just load up on offense and go for it I mean this pitching staff got us to the nlcs and urias will only be better this year . What do you think
2014 dozier is a 5 plus win player just saying
It’s unrealistic to think you can make those two huge trades without trading Bellinger. Bellinger was the reason why the Braun trade broke down. So Braun isn’t realistic especially after the Turner Jansen re signings. The OF just seems like a place (especially for at least half a year) where there isn’t going to be any significant movement.
Really never heard bellinger was involved everyone was saying the main pieces were puig and Stewart hard to believe they were 10 mins away from that trade when you’d be giving up puitbstewart and bellinger for Braun don’t see the dodgers front office doing that I heard it was over one last minor piece and they just simply ran out of time that is what everyone reported never heard bellinger name once
Braun has a huge contract that brewers want to get rid of Idk what’s the unrealistic part to you he’s not Carlos Correa….
I think itd take us Alvarez bueler Stewart de Leon verdugo puig Calhoun to get both those trade done maybe one or two more less known names as well so not really unrealistic
The trade was never close as some people exaggerated. If it was the Dodgers would have re opened talks especially with the ability to shed McCarthy and Puig. It tells you that the two sides were met at an impasse, and that impasses was ding ding ding Bellinger.
The unrealistic part is the Dodgers now are not willing to take on another 4 year contract. Add onto that, the Brewers don’t need to get rid of Braun’s contract because there is literally nothing on the books. It’s also unrealistic to believe that the Dodgers are going to turn back course to getting cheaper and younger. You’re not going to see them sign anyone big FA next year. One of their major goals is resetting the tax threshold. That’s accomplished after the 2018 season. And they shed more while attempting to lock up Kersh and Seager.
The teams are playing a game of chicken. The Dodgers could use a power bat who can mash lefties. The Twins need pitching and are going to suck this year (and probably next) with or without Dozier. There is no good market for Dozier, so there isn’t any real competition for the Dodgers during these negotiations.
DeLeon is a high end prospect (the 6th highest pitching prospect according to MLB.com).
Teams will no longer get a compensation pick for losing someone via free agency. So in two years, Dozier is gone. The Twins are not going to resign him.
Dozier is likely not a 40 HR guy. He’s going to regress this year to say 30 HR. So his value is literally as high as it is going to be in a trade.
As the year progresses, there is a chance the market gets better for trading Dozier, so perhaps other suiters could help the Twins get something more in return.
Who are the 5 higher rated pitching prospects?
Alex Reyes. He is sick. He isn’t going anywhere. Not to mention, the Cardinals aren’t in the market for a second baseman.
Lucas Giolito. The White Sox just got him. He’s not going anywhere. Plus, they’re in full rebuild. They’re not going to take on Dozier.
Tyler Glasnow. The Pirates aren’t moving him.
Anderson Espinoza. The Padres just got him, but could use an upgrade at 2B. But they’re unlikely to give up their top pitching prospect for a <2 year contracted player.
Jose Berrios. Twins don't need to trade for him. They already have him 🙂
So I'm not sure what more they are trying to get. If they want another prospect thrown in, it won't be someone rated in the top 100. There is no reason for the Dodgers to do that. Doziers value can only go down. Even if he matches his career year, he's still eating off days of that contract.
DeLeon's value could easily go down, as pitching prospects value usually does. But controllable starting pitching is currently what it's all about in the Majors.
In my opinion, I don't see why the Dodgers would give up anything more than DeLeon in a trade for Dozier.
twins have almost 50 million coming off the books when dozier is a free agent why trade your best player for a mid rotation projected starter.. the twins won 83 games 2 years ago and with the same team they won 59 so they are a lot better then a 59 win team everyone on there roster had major setbacks aside from dozier kintzler and sanatana the odd of that happening again are unlikely they will be a 72-75 win team this year as is with the majority of there players all still very young
@Joe +1
You nailed it. In De Leon the Twins would get five seasons of a mid-rotation starter. What is that worth on the open market today? At least $10M, per. What do the Dodgers get? Two years of Dozier. What would he get on the open market today? $15M, a season, maybe. In addition, the salary offset strongly favors the Twins. So it is hard to see how the Twins can demand more than De Leon, and maybe, just maybe, somebody else from a lower drawer.
a 4.5 war player is worth more then 15 million a year and de leon is far from a sure thing like any other prospect. dozier you know what your getting a average defensive 2baseman who is a plus on the bases and will hit 35 doubles 25-30 hrs and steal 15 bases. de leon who might get a mid rotation starter or you might get another bust of a prospect the twins are taking the risk
You’re a. Baseball fan and you don’t know how this works??… that’s the point the twins aren’t ready to win now that’s why they are getting future players that aren’t proven the dodgers are which is why they are getting a sort of proven player even tho those numbers won’t stick and are crap but you get what I mean
wont stick? his carrer lows in 4 season are 33 doubles 18 hrs and 12 stolen bases that would be a career low season so idk how you can say those number wont stick?
“you get what I mean”
No, all we see is rambling incoherence over several repetitive posts.
Too many Tom & Jerry’s?
+1
Not to be a stickler but JDL has a min 6 seasons of control left. If they wait to call him up they essentially get him for 7 years of control. I believe he earned a little less than a month of service time so essentially the twins would get ~6.3-6.4 years of service time from JDL.
Yup and nothing is forsure but the way he’s looking, a 10-16 game winner year through year
Fair enough, I hadn’t checked on how much time DeLeon had accumulated but I knew he was good for five seasons of team control, at least. We all know, or at least we should, that even bottom-end starters are good for $10M a season, minimum, on the free agent market. So unless you are going to value DeLeon as someone who can’t even crack a rotation, then placing a value on him is pretty easy. His excess value including arbitration is easily $40M.
As for comps on Dozier, we need look only as far as Justin Turner. He has better stats right across the board, and he just got $16M per. Dozier is owed $15M over the next two seasons. So if you make a huge assumption that he’s worth Turner money (which I question) then at best his excess value is $17M.
So that is why the Dodgers offering DeLeon for Dozier is not only enough, it is generous. It is especially generous considering nobody else seems to be knocking down the door to get Dozier.
Saying Dozier is only worth maybe an excess value of 17M is really low balling him. That’s saying you think he’s only going to be a 2 WAR player each year. He’s been 2.5 and above since 2013 (averaging 4.6 the last 3 years). That’s using fangraphs. Nothing is a guarantee of course, but I think you can put Dozier down for 4 WAR next year and 3.5 in 2018. That’s 60M…so he’s more like a 45M excess player.
I’ve seen other people say his excess is actual 60M even after subtracting his contract…but I don’t know what calculations they made or if they factored in any kind of possible decline.
You are correct that Deleon is likely a 40M prospect, but that still leaves a little on the bone. Personally I wouldn’t trade him for less than 1 top 11-25 prospect and one 75-100 SP prospect. Is that too much? Probably a little bit, but the Twins are the ones doing most of the gambling as prospects have a high failure rate no matter where they are ranked. Dodgers would be getting more of a guarantee…though of course Dozier could still fail or get injured.
Try to forget WAR for just a second and think about what he’d fetch annually on the open market as a free agent. That, minus what he’s owed, is how you establish the excess value for his two seasons of team control. An excess of $60M is obviously absurd because that’s essentially arguing he could get $30M a year over what he’s being paid now. No way he gets a larger AAV than Turner, even in a very good market for his position.
DeLeon’s excess is much higher due to the number of years of team control remaining. For the first 3-4 years he’s working for well under market, which for even a bottom-rung starter is conservatively $10M a year.
yes there is he is 3 years younger then turner they are playing for a guys 30 and 31 year old seasons and not a guys 33 and 34 year old seasons
I think most people expect Dozier to get 16-18 per based on everything (recent production, age, defense). That’s what he deserves based on the last three years. He’d be the top 2B available by far and get a 4-5 year deal. So what he makes in the next two years is what he should be making in one (plus a little more).
And I don’t think you can just ignore WAR. I’m not even a huge WAR guy, but I find it hard to just quickly dismiss it. There’s too many people here who seem to think Dozier isn’t any good and isn’t worth much of anything and that they want him for a bag of balls (some don’t even want to give up just DeLeon for an all star level player). That’s ridiculous. Though I doubt if Dozier was a Dodger, they would be saying the same thing. Dodger fans would want Berrios plus or Gordon plus as far as Twins prospects. I know the Dodgers were just willing to give up Turner for only a pick, but would you give him up for only one top 100 prospect in return? Just say a Jose Berrios? I’m guessing no. He’s worth more than that.
Is Turner better than Dozier? Yes. But Dozier is younger, now has a three year track record and is way cheaper. And let’s face it Turner is good, but that “give up a first rounder” to sign him was going to scare 95% of teams away so he didn’t have much of a market just due to that. His return to the Dodgers was inevitable.
The feeling I get is that people see a Dozier regression, which will happen, but they expect him to be no better than Utley. I just don’t see that happening. Again, nothing is impossible but I would be shocked as those kind of numbers would be the worst season(s) of Dozier’s career as a regular. So basically people aren’t expecting him to just regress, but to completely fall off a cliff. Again, I’d be shocked but nothing is impossible.
I think the Dodgers would re-sign Dozier if he ends up being good still (which I see happening). Even with luxury tax issues, but I don’t know their full situation. Seems like they’d need a 2B beyond just two years.
And yes DeLeon even if he produces very little he’s probably worth 8-10M, but that’s a way bigger “if he produces” than if Dozier produces. Dozier’s the one with the track record. DeLeon still has a lot to prove and is just a prospect who could still bust until he proves otherwise.
To make these calculations you can and should totally ignore WAR. You can also totally ignore arguments about regression. You can ignore any WAGs about future performance. You can ignore age. All you need to do is look at the free agent comps and the number of seasons the players would give to their respective teams. That method cuts through all the static and leaves you with a reasonable conclusion, and in all likelihood, directly to the very discussion going on right now between the Twins and the Dodgers.
Most importantly, if the Dodgers trade DeLeon, they are doing so at a ripe value. He is ready for MLB duty with nearly the maximum years of team control remaining. More valuable commodities hardly exist in baseball.
I’m not saying dozier isn’t worth de Leon I’ve been telling you I think fair trade would be de Leon Stewart and another lesser piece would you be happy with that trade? I don’t think he’s gonna regress that bad I just know it’s a possibility and I don’t see them resigning him he would be a free agent in the money class of Harper machado and kershaw is able to opt out that year thats the other bad part if he had more years the return would be so much higher it’d probably be Alvarez and de Leon Stewart if he had 4-5 years left
And you asked if we’d take that for turner, there’s one big difference we’re in the hunt for a ring twins kinda have no chance so for our situation right now no I wouldn’t if we were like the twins team no offense but keeping it real I probably would . And appreciate you seeing turner is Better than dozier by a tiny bit other teams fans would argue there player is better even when not true
No, I did not ask what you’d take for Turner. I used him as a recent salary comp. He’s an infielder with actually better numbers than Dozier pretty much across the board and is also a plus defender. He just signed for $16M AAV. If Dozier is worth more than that annually then it’s up to you to show why. I keep asking, but so far, nobody has even tried.
The blinding truth is, even if you could prove that Dozier is worth more annually, it could not possibly be by enough for his excess value to be greater than what the Twins would get from DeLeon. This is why the Dodgers are not giving up DeLeon plus two or three other top prospects for two years of Dozier anywhere but in your dreams.
if dozier was a free agent and was like i want 2 years and 30 million 25 teams would be jumping at it to drive that price way up thats why you cant compare the two
Yes you can compare, that’s how all of this is done. Go back and reread what I wrote since again you are not responding to my point at all.
Who are you talking too haha I’m a dodger fan and I’m not even replying to you ahah I think you’re having your own convo thinking we’re responding to you but we’re responding to each other
I was responding to joe, who said “you can’t compare the two.”
I think that’s a big reason why we differ. You don’t think Turner is worth more than Berrios only if the situation was reversed. Which to me seems crazy because I believe Turner is definitely worth more than that whether the Dodgers are contending or not. He’s worth more easily in my eyes.
I don’t think they should get more than two top 100 guys and a throw in. Even one top and a borderline top 100 would work and should absolutely be demanded. Turner could get back probably four guys, again with for sure two top 100 guys for him as well.
If Dozier is worth an excess value of 17M for the next two years, that to me means he’s a 15-17M per player in the market..which is pretty much what I’ve been saying (though I said 16-18 per).
I have no opinion about Berrios, and never mentioned him at all. Makes no sense to compare him to Turner since he was just signed. At this point Turner’s excess value is zero, so if the Dodgers wanted to trade him today with his new contract, they could not expect anything in return unless they paid it down substantially. If Berrios and De Leon are similarly positioned for MLB service, then theoretically the Dodgers would have to pay most of Turner’s contract if they expected to trade him for Berrios. That would have to be the reasonable starting point for any trade discussion.
There are 30 teams in baseball and only 10 that will have a guy play 2B full time in 2017 that had a 3.0 WAR in 2016. Dozier put up a 5.9 WAR and has averaged a 4. WAR over the past 3 seasons. I would take the Cubs out of the running because they have Baez and Zobrist and the Yankees because they are paying Starlin Castro, so there are 18 teams that could use Dozier. The Dodgers just happen to be one of them and they have the prospects to make a deal happen.
If the Twins extend a qualifying offer to Dozier in 2018 (if he’s worthy of one)…they still would get a pick if he signs somewhere else. What pick I don’t know for sure, but I remember national reports saying it would depend on market size…so they wouldn’t just lose him for nothing unless he’s worth nothing (like Plouffe was).
With that being said, he’s been a top 3 or top 5 MLB 2B the last three years. That’s worth more than just Deleon alone. If you believe in surplus valuations, Dozier is worth approximately 50-60 million dollars in excess value right now . I believe it’s closer to 60M, but I haven’t spent the time to calculate it myself. Just the range I have seen other people say. Anyway, that means he’s been worth way more than he’s been paid. You would expect that to continue even if he declines. In 2018, he could put up 1 WAR and you’d only be overpaying him by 1M (and he has never played that badly since he became a full time player)..
That excess value is worth two top 100 SP prospects (one in the 11-25 range and one in the 51-100 range…more likely being in the 75-100 range in my opinion). They could also likely get a throw in type of player, but if they for sure get two top 100 guys as they probably should..then a third piece being there doesn’t matter all that much.
Nope de Leon and maybe Brock Stewart is fair enough two future rotation guys and maybe just maybe someone else wish the twins had bullpen or do they ? Maybe they could add someone along with dozier to make the return to twins better
I wouldn’t mind a Deleon and Stewart deal, but I do think they can get more as the projections only put Deleon as a 3 and Stewart as a 4 in the rotation. Deleon could be better, but you never know. He and Berrios are about the same (though I’d put Berrios a rung lower and people projected Berrios as an ace).. Now people are thinking a 2/3. You can generally find 3/4 guys all over the FA market. Not this year though..
What I think is that Dodgers fans are clearly underrating Dozier and what’s he done that last three years and Twins fans are underrating prospects (some people seriously still mention Urias).
It seems most Dodgers fans want to believe that Dozier is going to completely fall off a cliff and have the worst two seasons of his pro career (as a full timer)…while I don’t think that’s going to happen. It’s not impossible, but most of them make it sound like a guarantee.
The funny thing about Deleon and Stewart is that I’ve seen a ton of Dodger fans say that is an overpay for Dozier too. You have to give up something to get something and Dozier has been a top 5 MLB 2B. Deleon and others are just projections and have proven nothing. I’m not saying that means they aren’t worth anything, but Dozier is the known commodity here. Deleon could very well never make it at all, even being this close. Same with Berrios with the Twins…as I’ve said, projections have fallen for him where he’s now considered a 2/3 (probably more a 3 and many say RP at best).
No I don’t think dozier will fall completely off I just know he’ll forsure drop he’ll still be a good player I think it’s dodger stadium that’s the bad part some players don’t hit well it get in there heads after a while that’s what I’m afraid of and I don’t think Stewart and de Leon is too much , we always seems to be pretty accurate with our prospects almost never fail except Zach lee he was a bit fail but urias is already looking like a future ace seager is a future MVP Pederson is a good starter . So I know de Leon is gonna be a #2-3 of course anything could happen but I’m very sure of it I say Stewart being a 3-5 3 if things go gokd 5 if not and de Leon is signed for 5 more years I know this will be a trade that the dodgers will end up regretting butbwe need to win now so younjust gotta make moves like this sometimes
I know some Dodger fans don’t think that way but many here and on the TrueBlueLA site seem to think Dozier isn’t worth just one of any of the following: DeLeon, Bellinger, Alvarez, Buehler. I mean what’s left? I know they have other good players, but they should fetch one of those for Dozier and most say he isn’t worth even just one of them. Not sure if they are prospect hoarders or think Dozier is terrible….or both.
I’m thinking the preference is that they just want to re-sign Utley because they don’t project Dozier to be any better than Utley (Utley was a 2 WAR player last year). Dozier has never been below 2.5 as a full time player and that was four seasons ago. He’s been averaging 4.6 the last three years and I expect him to average around 4 per year the next two years. Not a guarantee. He could do better or worse.
So you tell me, did Dozier have a breakout season for a known reason that we can expect to be repeated in future seasons? If not, then what stands out in his career numbers to make him such a hot commodity? Other than power. Does he hit for average? Does he get on base at an impressive clip? Is he defensively excellent? You tell us.
baserunning, power and the ability to hit leftys 2 of those things the dodgers dont have
Top 5 2B based on the last three years. You may want other players to build around who are younger (Altuve etc), but top five is what Dozier has been lately.
Dozier isn’t elite at anything unless you call him elite for a 2B. I’d probably say that’s a stretch but top five at any position is great when there’s 30 teams. Most teams would love to have a Dozier. The Dodgers wouldn’t be wanting to trade for him if he wasn’t worth it or wasn’t any good. Solid D. Batting average is fine in my eyes, but I’m not a huge average guy. Would I rather have a guy hit .300 vs .240, of course but I don’t think Dozier is junk because he doesn’t hit .300. It’s not like he’s a career .200 hitter. He gets on base at a .330 clip so you can put him at the top five of a lineup.
Top three in PA (all hitters) the last three years so durable. Top 15 in HRs (none above him are 2B). Top three in runs. I know you’re not a WAR fan but he’s top 15 in that. The stats in this paragraph are all hitters, not just 2B.
I don’t think Dozier is 2016 Dozier for the next two years, but at minimum I expect 2014 Dozier. And 2014 Dozier is a valuable player.
Neither of you answered any of my questions.
Me??
Dozier’s breakout year was 2014 and he’s been very good since then. 2016 was an insane year that everyone would be shocked if he repeated.
You can put down Dozier for a line around .245/.330/.430 at minimum. And throw in 15-20 SB’s, 30 2Bs and 28 or so HRs. Of course nothing is a guarantee as I will always say, but that’s what I expect out of Dozier at minimum if he’s with the Twins or Dodgers. His numbers would likely be better in LA as he’d have better players as teammates, guys who can get on base.
I think his hrs will drop drastically because the ball dies out at dodger stadium especially at night games I think the most he hits is 25 I hope I’m wrong I hope this deal gets done hopefully the twins don’t get stingy and demand too much we kbownfor w fact already dodgers are willing to give de Leon and I’m sure there’s another good piece also and a 3rd minor piece but I think if the twins are demanding Alvarez bueler or bellinger as well the deal doesn’t happen
Braun is a better player the. Dozier yes his contract is more expensive but he’s great all around and the brewers were going to take McCarthy off out hand puig which I want gone and Stewart that’s not bad for Braun and it was 10 mins always from being done theybwere working on the last piece but they ran out of time so the fact that out biggest return for Braun was gonna be Stewart shows that the dozier trade would be more than fair and they were gonna take mcarthy expensive contract of us
I’m going to add a hypothetical/fake scenario to this.
If the situation was reversed…the Twins were in the Dodgers position. Loaded farm. Playoff caliber every year. Loaded pretty much everything.
Pretending Dozier is a Dodger instead of a Twin. Would I want the Twins to trade Berrios and Polanco for Dozier. Berrios was rated higher than Deleon in BA rankings for midseason (both in the 20s, I believe) and Polanco was 90 something. So two top 100 prospects for Dozier.
Would I do that? Yes. Would it hurt a little? Sure, but I’m getting the known commodity who’s been all star level for the last three years and he just could be the missing piece for that championship. And we all know it’s not easy to win a WS, but that’s the goal.
I’m glad fine with trade de Leon and someone like Stewart and even another lower piece but it the twins want bellinger no way our team is gonna need future hitting I wouldn’t make the trade if bellinger was wanted and I’m fine if the twins would move on if that’s what they wanted I just think de Leon Stewart and someone else is fair and it keeps them from taking a risk of dozier possibly getting injured or having a down year then wants f to trade him
I just think there’s much more risk on the Twins side than there is on the Dodgers side. The Dodgers farm is loaded. Dozier has been consistently good for three years now. I don’t think he’s going to turn into a pumpkin that quickly. Zero clue what you’d get out of DeLeon and others…while Dozier you’d know (and it’s very good value especially for his contract). DeLeon may never make it or end up always injured like he already has been lately. Then you’d really want Dozier instead of him.
DeLeon and Bellinger or DeLeon and Alvarez I’d consider a home run for the Twins. I would say the second is more realistic than the first but I certainly don’t expect either deal. Only in my dreams.
I’d be okay with DeLeon and Verdugo. Don’t think I’d want Calhoun, who seems like a DH only. And it seems like most Dodgers fans love to add him to Dozier trade rumors. Plus the Twins don’t need a 2B in return because they have one in waiting. Only take Calhoun if they can hope he ups his value and flip him for something better. Don’t think that’s worth the risk though.
I’ve seen national writers say DeLeon and Calhoun is a fair deal, maybe a slight overpay. That would be two top 100 prospects like I expect (if you go by midseason BA rankings). But again, I don’t really want Calhoun.
I don’t see dodgers front office giving up Deleon and Alvarez j think they’d do de Leon Stewart and someone e else yeah bellinger and de Leon would forsure not happen that’s probably what the whitesox were asking them for sale plus others in sure but still they wouldn’t even do that trade then in so sure that trade would never happen for dozier
I feel about bellinger the way I felt about seager two years ago when the Marlins were asking us seager urias and pederson for Fernandez and all the dodgers fans thought it was a complete joke I even thought to myself j wouldn’t even do seager for Fernandez straight up , that’s how j feel about bellinger I wouldn’t trade him for dozier straight up he’s another future star and you’ll say ” but dozier is proven and bellinger isn’t ” bellinger is similar to what seager was not proven but you knew once he got up he was gonna put up the numbers so giving up all those future years of bellinger didn’t worth it for 2 of dozier and we need him for when Gonzalez contract is over
I know there’s risk just like there risk dozier could break his leg in the first inning of opening day just like there’s a risk de Leon become a future cy young keeping dozier does nothing for your text except put an extra 2 thousand people that are not gonna go anymore because they were dozier fans your team is not gonna win your player is never gonna have higher value . And I’m not saying the twins should take crap for him because they probably won’t resign him and he could very well drop , in saying is it’s a fair offer starting with de Leon dodgers always make reasonable fair trades actually more time trades that I think are unfair for us and I’m usually very understanding . I don’t know if buxton and many of your prospects never being what they’re supposed to be makes twins fans nervous but most other teams prospects most of time end up becoming pretty good to average major league starters which isn’t a bad thing to have for 5 years of de Leon and if Brock Stewart was in it I’m sure he has more than 3 years not sure tho and another player that would be added most of dodger prospects always turn out to be good contributing major leauguers with the exception of Zach lee who was a bust . Pederson urias seager we usually draft pretty low so we never have top 30 prospects up until past years but the ones we have had have all been good
I don’t think the high bust rate makes us extra nervous. More like a normal amount of nervous. And Buxton is way too young to be considered a bust yet by anyone.
I don’t know the Dodgers track record the last 10 years as far as nailing drafts, but I know for the Twins it’s mediocre at best. I do know the Dodgers have succeeded more often recently. That’s clear.
I just know what I see happen in the market, not just this year, but other years. The team with the proven player usually gets a pretty great return at least on paper. Whether it actually works out that way in actual value I’m not sure. People were shocked by the Sale trade but I don’t think it was that shocking at all. Sale is great, except against the Twins.
So the Dodgers lose 3 more games over the last two years than the last two years of Ned Colletti’s reign and can’t even match the 94 wins Colletti had, which got his butt fired, this despite spending tons more money. Still people are worried about giving up prospects who may or may not live up to their expections? “Oh not for Dozier!” Really? Let’s not forget there are only 30 starting Major League second basemen in the whole freakin’ world of which Dozier is one of those elite few starters and he’s a guy who posted the 8th best WAR (6.5) in the AL in 2016. Additionally he is set to make less than half of what soon to be 37 year old LHP Rich Hill (6 million/12.67 million) despite Hill having exactly one good season as a starting pitcher since 2007. Can you say career spike? Let’s also not forget that the Dodgers don’t exactly handle left handed pitching well and this guy could make a difference in their lineup. In fact the Dodgers were terrible vs lefties .213/.290/.332. About this time Andrew Friedman and his over priced dream team front office need to starting producing better than his predecessors or they’ll all be looking for a new job. After spending north of a half billion dollars in salary over the last two years it is going to be exceeding hard to justify to ownership why failure of inclusion of a good prospect in a trade to get the piece they need was the reason the team fell short of the true goal here…winning the World Series. It seems like there are a number of people who are forgetting what the Dodgers are playing for…this year not tomorrow. They have more than enough money to get more prospects.
one thing bugging me about that Rollins article – it isn’t Encinal, California, it is Encinal HS in Alameda, California.
Tomlinson and Panik are are future…… Theraes now way they should be moved….????
it depends on if they see arroyo or others in the pipeline making strides, at least tomlinson becomes a chip if you think you could say, move arroyo into 3rd and move nunez to utility or such. If he works out, having a power bat added to the infield vs tomlinson’s speed – considering the high average low power makeup would make sense, especially if tomlinson can’t bring up his defensive numbers.
I hope the Dodgers hang on to De Leon and pass on Dozier. Pitching is more valuable than power. And it is doubtful Dozier would hit more than 20 HRs playing in the NL West. And let’s be honest, power is the only thing that stands out in his skill set. He does not get on base enough. It is too bad the Dodgers traded Peraza.
Well they had better do something to land a right handed power bat. I disagree with you about Dozier. I think he’s have a very good year in that lineup. He’s certainly going to see better pitches in LA than he did in that Twins lineup. I doubt they will wait that long but if the Dodgers do wait until they are struggling against lefties again during the season the other GMs are going to smell blood and jack up the price on the Doziers of the world. And you’d do the same if you held the cards.
Is this Jose De Leon kin to the one that pitched for the Cardinals years ago??
No he said a dodgers prospect he pitched about 5 games last year when they brought him up
anyone else getting the feeling that if this trade goes down it’ll be one the dodger fans remember as a giant mistake and if it doesn’t the dodgers laugh and twins think about when they didn’t take the offer I keep getting that feeling . Imagine how funny it’ll be if it doesn’t and dozier gets injured early in the season or even if he doesn’t and his numbers are really bad and he ends up hitting like his career avg 240 with like 17 hr and 55 RBI hahahah i kinda wanna see that happen
I agree with your last sentence.
Also, “It’ll be the one dodgers fans remember as a giant mistake” … It’ll be the one Giants fans will remember as a dodger mistake.
Why are some Giants fans ridiculously obsessed with the Dodgers?
ANd even tho eaton is 5 years left at a great price and higher war the nats are still idiots and over payed dodgers won’t be , dozier is a giant question mark
eatons war has not been higher over the last 4 years and if a question mark will putt up at least 60 extra base hits steal 15 bases and play average d score 100 runs and have 70 plus rbis on a poor team ill take question makes all day
The Dodgers, of all people, should be the ones who know how a young player’s status can fall of the cliff in a hurry. You only need to look at the player who was talked about in the same light as Mike Trout…Puig.
YEAJ we do and we know doziers numbers aren’t gonna stick 🙂 that’s why we’re having this talk
35 doubles 15 sb and 25 plus hrs those numbers have been pretty consistent with dozier
haha etc.:
It’s not a talk. It’s a rambling incoherent monologue. We;re still waiting for a semblance of a valid point.
Are you the Giants and am I the dodgers ? Because you seem to have an obsession
No, just looking for some sense, coherence, and clarity in what people post here.
Your posts are truly exceptional,
Really, you know Dozier’s numbers aren’t going to stick? Joe, you just made my point. Those numbers may be consistent with Dozier’s but A.) he doesn’t play second base B.) His numbers couldn’t even overcome an abismal team showing against lefties and C.) Those number hardly put him in an elite category like Trout who many compared him to after his rookie season. Wishing on players with little or no time in the Major Leagues while having a chance to obtain a known quality, in the long haul, is chasing fools gold. Don’t believe me? Fine, just check out how many top 5 or 10 prospects in Baseball America’s Prospect Handbook over the years either became below average Major Leaguers or didn’t get to the ML at all.
It should have read top 5 or 10 in each team’s top prospects by the year.
Twins should just re up Dozier so we can put an end to this all.
they should
Twins need to extend Brian Dozier for additional 3 years and 39 million.
I don’t know how losing teams like the twins don’t wanna go there fullest to rebuild, if we wouldn’t have resigned jansen and turner I would have said we’re not winning this so why don’t we just trade people either you’re in or you’re out and after we resigned then we were back in. But twin fans would not wanna fix there future just to keep a guy who’s gonna hit 25 next year because he gets people to the games….. how about you get players that will get your team to the playoffs in the future instead of one player that gets your Fans to the games but you still have the worst record in baseball
How did we let an idiot like Dave Stewart set the trade market value , what he gave up for Miller last year was insane he was probably on some drugs at the time. That the package you give up for a sale or kershaw or madbum not Miller . Just because idiot teams like nats and dbags get desperate and overpay doesn’t mean every team will
“he was probably on some drugs at the time.”
We’re beginning to see the affinity.
Do you want my number or Insta or something I think somebody has a crush
God no. Stop preening.
I hope Santa brings you a stocking full of “Restraint of Send Button”. It’s a marvelous product when used several times a day.
THATS your comeback?…
I loved that Jimmy Rollins interview.
Finally got around to it. Excellent, a must-read. If you look in the encyclopedia under “ballplayer” you will find a picture of Rollins. A total class act.
If i’m the Twins front office the centerpiece of any potential Dozier trade would center around Bellinger or Alvarez.. One of those plus Lux or Calhoun and the deal is done. The Twins should not accept anything less.