Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher-profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.
Modeling arbitration salaries is an inexact science, and sometimes “inexact” is too generous of a description. Setup man Addison Reed‘s projected $5.3MM raise to $10.6MM is clearly one of those times. Even worse is that the model was only saved by the “Kimbrel Rule,” which states that a player can only beat the record salary for their service class by $1M in the model. The raw model projected a $5.8MM raise. Reed is going to get a far smaller raise than he projected, because the peculiarities of his case confuse the model so much.
Reed’s case is unique because he has 106 career saves but had 40 holds this year in lieu of working as a closer. Further, he struck out 91 batters in 77.2 innings while posting a microscopic 1.97 ERA. Relievers who have a career of closing success behind them tend to out-earn those who have a single good year as closers. So the model gives credit to career save totals, which boosts Reed’s projection significantly.
He is, however, unlikely to get extra credit for those saves in real life. Remove those career saves, and the model projects him for a $3.6MM raise. That’s still large, but much more reasonable.
Reed’s 40 holds this year put him in elite company on their own. In the last decade, only three relievers entering their third year of arbitration eligibility have even accumulated 30 holds—David Robertson in 2014, Tyler Clippard in 2014, and Mike Adams in 2012. They had 33, 33, and 32 holds, respectively, and earned raises of $2.12MM, $1.88MM, and $1.87MM. Their ERAs were strong as well: 2.04, 2.41, and 1.47, as compared with Reed’s 1.97 ERA total. The extra holds suggest Reed’s raise will be worth significantly more than Robertson’s $2.12MM.
That establishes a floor for Reed, but looking for a ceiling is tricky with a lack of relievers amassing 40 holds or anything near it. To find a potential ceiling, we can look to closers who pitched similarly. Among closers who had ERAs under 2.00 like Reed, only one name emerges from the last five years—Aroldis Chapman. He had 33 saves and a 1.63 ERA in 2015, with 116 strikeouts in 66.1 innings. Chapman got a $3.27MM raise. Although Reed had seven more holds than Chapman did saves, he had a higher ERA and fewer strikeouts.
Putting this together, it makes sense that Reed should fall somewhere between a $2.12 and $3.27MM. I suspect right in the middle at $2.7MM would make sense, putting him at $8MM. It is a far cry from the model’s $10.6MM projection ($11.1MM ignoring the Kimbrel Rule), but it definitely would be a healthy raise for Reed’s third year of eligibility.
Reed has been so solid for the mets . I wish they would lock him down for a few years.
It would cost as much now to sign him long term as did a top closer 2-3y ago with the market has ballooned this offseason for setup guys as dominant as he is, add he’s just now entering his supposed peak performance age and it could get more expensive.
Then the NYM do not really seem all that obsessed with locking down any of the non Boras top starters they have either and casts more doubt they would be willing to spend 30m plus on one of the better setup men in the league 2y running.
Should they? I think so, then also think they should try to lock down one of Snydergard-DeGrom also, if not both and it that is not possible? An early gamble on Matz.
The Mets aren’t going to lock down anyone. They have cheap owners that want as much of a big market revenue stream that they can go using mirrors. When they do spend, it is an overreaction. The deal that they have Cespedes will come back to but them in the butt. There outfield is a collection of overrated strike out prone left and right fielders.
The Mets pitchers should take the team to the cleaners financially wherever possible to make a statement that having a reckless manager “TC” has cost many of them their health and jeopardized their futures.
I think the short answer is “no” based upon this particular team’s priorities. Thinking of the Mets and as everyone has pointed out, their starting pitching is their priority. I think this year with hopefully everyone (Harvey, DeGrom, Wheeler and Matz) healthy, it should provide the Mets with a blueprint from here. You gotta think every year these five pitchers (now including guys like Familia, Edgin, and the aforementioned Reed as an example), it’s going to cost the Mets 10-20 million a season in arbitration $’s.
So knowing that and thinking about re-signing Reed beyond this last arbitration year, they probably have to pass.
I think the best thing the Mets can do is hope that Robles, Smoker, Lugo and Gsellman all can contribute in the bullpen in a consistent fashion this year to save money they’ll need to possibly extend some of their core pitching.
I think Harvey and maybe Wheeler are the more possible “left outs” in these discussions. Wheeler because he wasn’t as good as these guys before TJ, and he’s already in arbitration mode and Harvey because he’s a Boras client where past history indicates he’ll go to free agency before ever signing an extension.
That leaves probably DeGrom and Syndergaard as priorities with a wait and see for Matz and to a lesser extent Wheeler.
I think Lugo goes to the bullpen and Gsellman might be that guy that is the spot 6th starter.
That’s excellent stuff Matt. Actually interesting how you surmise the increase. I thought I’d get too bored to finish, but you made that interesting.
Agree this is great. Interesting on its own, plus one of my leagues factors in real-life salaries so you guys are the go-to for this type of stuff.
Mets pitchers are all underpaid while their position players are mostly overpaid. The pitching is the key to their season, and it will all come down to their health. The Mets are one of the few pitching staffs that could beat the Cubs in a short series. The biggest mistake they made was over pitching the starters in 2015, this killed them last year. The Mets have never been good with injured players with the starters like Santana and Wright as examples. First they would say they would be out a short period of time and the next thing you know they are done. By the way , Reed has been excellent for them, which means they let him go!
Addison Reed was fantastic last year. If he touches 10 Mill (or if any off their other pitchers not named Noah does) he will be gone in a micro-second for some young ‘cost-controlled’ Minor-leaguer.
Moral of the story, stop using career stats for guys who went to arbitration the year before. The teams and agents don’t use career stats for them so your model shouldn’t either.