There’s no denying that the White Sox are engaged in an aggressive rebuilding plan. After all, the organization has now traded away two of its best, established MLB assets in Chris Sale and Adam Eaton, and is said to be engaged in talks to do the same with Jose Quintana. If those affordable, controllable players can be had, then surely it stands to reason that more expensive, shorter-term assets are also on the table.
While players like David Robertson and Melky Cabrera make good sense as trade chips, perhaps no single player on the ChiSox roster carries a “trade me” sign quite as visible as that of third baseman Todd Frazier. Unlike Robertson, he’s entering the final year of contract control. And unlike Cabrera — who’s owed $15MM in the final year of his deal — Frazier is still projects to be useful in the field.
Frazier did take a big step back in the eyes of defensive metrics last year after consistently rating as a plus gloveman at third. And his .225/.302/.464 batting line represented his worst offensive output since a down 2013 season. But Frazier is young enough (31 in February) to think that he can regain his lost step at third, and perhaps its unwise to put too much stock in one year’s worth of defensive ratings given his strong track record. Also, he still swatted forty home runs in 2016 — rather an impressive total from a player capable of playing the hot corner — and boosted his walk rate to a career-high 9.6% (though his K rate also crept up). Frazier still runs well, too, as he swiped 15 bags in 2016.
Really, if you’re looking for a solid everyday player who could bounce back to being an All-Star-level performer, there aren’t many better bets than Frazier. His .236 BABIP makes him an obvious candidate for some positive regression, though it’s fair to note that he earned that mark to some extent by putting the ball in the air more than ever before (48.7%) and posting-career worst line-drive (15.7%) and soft contact (20.7%) rates. With Frazier showing greater selectivity than ever and maintaining his career swinging-strike rates, there’s hope that he can boost his OBP while retaining much of the power he has achieved by gunning for the long ball.
Even if he remains much the same hitter he was in 2016, Frazier would look to be a more defensively useful version of Mark Trumbo. Frazier will only require a single-season commitment, which is appealing. And he could also allow a new acquiring team to recoup a draft pick after the season, if he proves himself worthy of a qualifying offer.
Still, there’s probably a reason that it has mostly been crickets on the demand side for Frazier. In particular, there just isn’t that much demand for third basemen around the game. The Dodgers were rumored to have interest, but ended up bringing back top-available free agent Justin Turner. And the open market still includes at least two useful options at the hot corner in Luis Valbuena and Trevor Plouffe. Then, there’s the fact that MLBTR projects him to earn a hefty $13.5MM, which would make a dent on any team’s balance sheet.
Under the circumstances, the Sox could take Frazier into the year and hope he becomes a summer trade chip (or, perhaps, a QO candidate after the season). Holding onto him is hardly an unfathomable outcome if there’s truly no serious interest, particularly since there doesn’t appear to be a major salary-trimming imperative behind the team’s sell-off. Indeed, many of the teams discussed below seem rather unlikely to offer enough of a return to force the White Sox’ hand. But several organizations that might not give prospects and take on $13.5MM or so in salary right now may well end up having a need in the middle of the season.
It still makes eminent sense for the South Siders to explore all avenues for a trade this winter, but a deal probably isn’t as likely as it might seem at first glance. Let’s take a look at some hypothetical suitors (listed in alphabetical order):
[Team links to MLB Depth Charts]
Athletics — Sure, Oakland has Ryon Healy at third, and he’s more than entitled to a full-season run after his impressive debut. But he has never been viewed as much of a defensive player, and could simply be shifted over to first to make way for Frazier. The A’s have already shown a somewhat surprising amount of payroll availability in pursuing Edwin Encarnacion; adding Frazier could have nearly the same overall impact at a lesser cost (at least, in dollars) because of the defensive upgrade he’d bring.
Braves — While Atlanta seems amenable to going with Adonis Garcia at third, there’s little reason to expect much out of him. The organization can also plan to bump Sean Rodriguez to the hot corner if and when Ozzie Albies rises to the majors. And it’s fair to wonder at what point the Braves will stop taking on 2017 salary. Still, after expending some resources for near-term improvements, perhaps pursuing Frazier would be a finishing touch that could make Atlanta a plausible contender (with a few good breaks).
Cardinals — St. Louis was reportedly lingering around on both Turner and Encarnacion, suggesting that the club is intrigued at the prospect of boosting its infield productivity. Like those possibilities, adding Frazier would likely mean trading another player (Jhonny Peralta, Kolten Wong, or Jedd Gyorko) to create space. And it’s not clear whether the Cards would see enough upside in Frazier to go through with all that. Still, it’s a reasonably plausible landing spot.
Dodgers — Any continued interest depends upon whether the Dodgers would consider playing Turner at second base. He has seen less and less time there over the years, and didn’t make a single appearance at second in 2016, so there’s no particular reason to think that Los Angeles would move him to make way for Frazier. Adding a true second baseman still seems much more likely.
Giants — Eduardo Nunez remains the odds-on favorite to man third, in concert with Connor Gillaspie. But if San Francisco feels it’s better able to improve its offensive production with Frazier than by adding a corner outfielder, with Nunez turning back into a quality utilityman, then perhaps the Giants could make for an interesting fit.
Orioles — The O’s are said to be looking at sluggers, and may prefer one that plays the outfield, but there still could be a fit here. Frazier could spell Manny Machado at third and Chris Davis at first while lining up as the DH. If shortstop J.J. Hardy needs a rest, is hurt, or isn’t effective, then Machado could slide in for him and Frazier could return to full-time duty at the hot corner. It’s not a perfect fit, but Frazier could be a more appealing target for Baltimore than the remaining open-market options.
Rangers — Texas is in the market for a first baseman and/or DH, and might not hate the idea of adding someone who could fill in for Adrian Beltre at the hot corner at times. But there are plenty of hitters in free agency, and the Rangers have other infielders who could man third, so this doesn’t feel terribly likely as things stand.
Red Sox — Boston has given signals that its offseason is largely in the books, but a pivot can’t be ruled out. As things stand, the organization appears to be putting an awful lot of trust in Pablo Sandoval. There’s room for Frazier’s salary, perhaps, after dealing Clay Buchholz. He could split time between first and third (with Mitch Moreland), allowing Hanley Ramirez to be a full-time DH while increasing the Sox’ platoon opportunities.
Rockies — Somewhat like the Orioles, the Rockies could potentially have interest in Frazier to fill a different need. If Colorado trades an outfielder and moves Ian Desmond to the outfield, it would need a regular first baseman. While Frazier’s true utility is somewhat wasted there, that’s perhaps less true than it is in Desmond’s case.
Yankees — Chase Headley has underwhelmed with the bat, so perhaps Frazier could mix in with him and first baseman Greg Bird to inject some pop and increase the Yanks’ overall versatility. But New York still has other needs, and Frazier would represent a pretty significant cost to function in that kind of capacity. Unless Headley were to be dealt, the fit is something of a stretch.
Others — You could argue for the Pirates, especially if Jung Ho Kang is lost, though perhaps corresponding moves would be needed to make it even plausible that the Bucs would take on that much salary (particularly with David Freese and Josh Bell already on hand). The Indians might have made sense were it not for the acquisition of Edwin Encarnacion, but Frazier seems too costly and uncertain to justify relegating Jose Ramirez to corner outfield/utility duties. It’s hard to see the Rays coughing up the cash (and talent) needed to land Frazier, though he’d be a possible first base/DH candidate in Tampa Bay. The Marlins need a righty bat, but re-upped Martin Prado to play third and seem to like Justin Bour as at least a semi-regular at first; without a DH slot, there likely isn’t any kind of match there. Likewise, you could argue for the Mets to add Frazier (at least assuming they deal one or more outfielders); he could share time with Lucas Duda at first and otherwise play third, in theory, but this seems rather implausible unless/until New York trades one or more outfielders and the team has reason to believe that David Wright won’t be able to play in 2017. It’s at least somewhat more possible to imagine the Mariners or Blue Jays taking a look, but those also feel like iffy fits. Neither needs a third baseman or DH, and while they could stand to add Frazier’s pop at first, the presences of Dan Vogelbach and Justin Smoak reduce the utility of adding a fairly expensive piece like Frazier.
He would be great for the mets or giants
Another home run or nothing guy that strikes out over 150 times a year? No thanks.
Agreed. That’s why we keep Duda around, and Jose Reyes is fine at third when Wright gets hurt.
Giants make the most sense, probably followed by the Mets.
Chris Shaw would be an interesting piece….and some extra along with him. Maybe a Rodolfo Martinez or Heath Quinn type
He’s The Home Run King !!!!! Don’t tradee Fraizer Sox !!!!!
The sox are in a rebuild, they could get a lot for him especially cause of what they got for eaton
Eaton doesn’t effect Frazior at all. Pretty much everyone beside the Nats thinks that was a poor trade. He has one year of control vs Eatons 5, and is fairly expensive compared to Eatons contract,. is coming off a down year defensively and is a power bat in this market. Joey Bats, Trumbo, Carter, Alverez, Moss, Napoili are all free agents.
Actually, most people that look at the actual valuations of the assets in that deal think it’s within range of a fair swap. How it turns out remains to be seen, of course, but Eaton is a high-quality player whose contract had tons of surplus value.
Saying everyone thinks it was a poor trade is like saying everyone thought the Jason Heyward signing was dumb. And, no surprise, the people who understand the Eaton deal are pretty much the same as those who understood the Heyward signing.
That’s simply not true. There are a large number of people who understand the trade from the Nats perspective.
The jason heyward contract is a joke and you cant justify it at all
Heyward clearly let the pressure of the deal get to him. With all that has transpired this past year I think Heyward has a real bounce back year.
Both looked bad then and look bad now man. Eaton is highly overrated, he does a few things above average but isn’t a contact hitter, power bar or elite defender. The Nationals could’ve gotten more for two top pitching prospects, Heyward was a great defender who never lived up to the hype, A guy who hits .260 with 15 HR is not worth $100 million.
dodgerfan711: Says the fan of the Dodgers, who never offer bad contracts…..
p.s. Heyward is reworking his swing to what it was in Atlanta. I look for a solid year for him.
The dodgers only free agent contract over 100 million dollars recently was to greinke who left because he was underpaid. Ok sure mccarthey sucks but 48 million dollar bust or 184? They could have got cueto and murphy for less money. Not to mention 184 million is superstar money and heyward has never been a superstar
I mean, he was a 6 WAR player who got paid like a 6 WAR player then had a down year
Eaton is an elite corner outfielder, which is where he’ll play for the rest of his post-2017 caareer
Adam Eaton, defensively, was the best right fielder in baseball last season. So that sounds like an elite defender to me.
I started looking into Eatons numbers and was a little surprised. He has a little of prime Alex Gordon in him. If the Nats get that they get a sneaky mvp stat wise player just like Gordon was.
Ezlove: If the Pale Hosers could get a lot for him, then why haven’t they gotten rid of him by now?
Answer: He’s not that valuable, and he costs a lot. As it says in the article.
As with analogies between Dozier and Eaton, this one just doesn’t hold any water. Eaton’s contract situation is entirely different. Even if it was analogous, the prior deal wouldn’t mean much at all w/r/t what’d be available for another player.
If he didnt cost much (prospect), he would be a terrific pickup for the Mets if (when?) David Wright.doesnt return.
Frazier makes so much sense for the Mets considering both Wright and Duda’s backs. Even if they are healthy, Frazier playing every day between first and third would benefit Wright and Duda’s bodies. Even if healthy, they’ll need rested regularly. In reality, the Mets will be lucky to get 162 games between the both of them combined.
They could use Wilmer for the other position.
I really don’t see the love for Frazier. He hits a ton of home runs but strikes out way too much. Mets need more guys who put the ball in play, rather in the catchers glove.
His K rate hasn’t been that high historically. Actually, year over year it pretty much traces Freddie Freeman to a tee — typically around 20%, jumped to over 24% in 2016.
an .800 OPS with 30 HR and 15 SB out of your 3B isn’t all that bad…..
It is but I’m not seeing his OPS being a lock at 800. He should be so much better but his declining OBP raises some major concerns. He’s hit it only twice. I’d expect the glove to come back around but he might just be more valuable at the deadline.
A high K rate is more the norm than the exception with power hitters and in many ways is now considered the ‘cost of doing business’.
I don’t understand the term “positive regression” in the article. How can you positively regress!
Sounds like a contradiction to me although I do understand what Jeff meant to say.
I was referring to the concept of regressing to the mean, which I guess is probably a slightly casual use of statistics terminology. (I’m no statistician.) But as far as baseball stats are concerned, that could mean rising or falling; “regression,” by itself, wouldn’t have any inherent negative suggestion.
I’m no statistician either but I think you got it exactly right. The word regression is often used incorrectly as a synonym for decline. In statistics, it denotes movement towards the mean.
no way the A’s trade for him with Matt Chapman coming into the fold (most likely) this year
Not sure why that would preclude it. Chapman still probably needs some minor league time and you could still field a lineup with both players (and with Healy). If they chased Encarnacion, they could pursue Frazier — at least in theory. EE might’ve been seen as a special case; we don’t really know.
The A’s also have Nunez in AAA. No way they would trade for Frazier since they are in rebuild mode. EE would have cost them nothing being a FA but Frazier cost is a couple of prospects they are not willing to trade.
Well you’re half right… It’s pretty unlikely the A’s deal for a guy on an expiring contract due to their current approach of building the team, but Nunez is in no way, shape or form considered an option at third on the big league squad. He could literally be the worst defensive player in the league if the A’s gave him a shot there this year.
Maybe, just maybe he will see time at DH in the majors this year, but a lot of stuff would have to go wrong first, and the most boring A’s off-season of all time would have to continue through the end of spring training.
Putting him (Nunez) next to Semien could be an interesting show at least…
“…perhaps pursuing Frazier would be a finishing touch that could make Atlanta a real contender.” !??!!
More likely, he’d put that lineup just over the 75-win mark.
Atlanta’s far away from being a real contender. A one-year stopgap at $13.5 million would be a step back from even that distant horizon.
They’ve spent on a bunch of one-year pitching, so obviously feel there’s at least some chance. I think adding Frazier would give the team enough plausible upside to make contention possible. I wouldn’t say it’s wise to over-invest, but given what they’ve done, if there’s payroll space and the prospect cost is palatable I don’t see why it’s not possible. Plus, he could turn into a trade chip or QO/draft pick. Not sure how it would harm the future beyond the prospect cost, which would obviously depend upon what ATL would give and what CWS would take.
Jeff, the way I see it, the Braves signed that bunch of one-year pitchers to protect the youngsters from too much negative exposure, and to draw some fans by offering some recognizable names on the field.
Surely they don’t expect to contend in ’17 unless there are drastic failures by the entire NL East.
I don’t think they really, truly expect to have a real shot at making the postseason. But I mean contention more in the sense of being in the hunt, having a competitive team for most/all of the year.
Sure, the pitchers protect younger arms, but they could’ve signed the guys the Padres did if all they wanted was innings. And it’s not as if any of those pitchers profile as stars who are really marketable. (Sign Lincecum!)
My point is that adding Frazier would fit much the same mold as those pitching deals. Whether they have another such move in the tank, or can get Frazier for a palatable price, I don’t know. But I’m just looking for plausible outcomes here, not saying ATL is going to or should acquire him.
Jeff, “contention” seems to be a contentious word !
Keep up the good work.
Ha. I probably shouldn’t use it without any modifying language … it’s a tough word to use at the outset of a season.
I see you changed the text to read “‘plausible contender’ with a few good breaks”.
Heck, I don’t think they’ll reach 76 wins. To each his own.
I totally agree.
If the Braves trade for Frazier, they would have Kemp Freeman and Frazier in the middle and they would maybe be better than a Werth Harper Murphy combo. I think kemp and Freeman will have great seasons and Dickey may return to the national league and be very good. I like what they have going and maybe the NL east will be exciting.
Two things. One, as already mentioned, the Braves are far, far away from contending. Second, was it necessary to list a third of MLB as hypothetical suitors? Eh, I guess it’s that time of the year and you guys have to write something.
I softened that. I agree the Braves aren’t really close to being a contender, in the sense of being an expected over-.500 team. But I think it’s hard to say all but a handful of teams are truly non-contenders, in that it’d be just hard to see how they could even make the postseason. There’s enough upside in ATL that if things break right, they could end up as a .500 or better team. So, adding a guy like Frazier — a 4+ win guy as recently as 2015, who’d replace the worst part of their lineup in Garcia — could conceivably boost them into plausible playoff range (again, if a few things break right).
How do you arrive at only a handful of teams as contenders when you say, “But I think it’s hard to say all but a handful of teams are truly non-contenders, in that it’d be just hard to see how they could even make the postseason. ” Houston, seattle, texas, LAA, LAD, SF, Ari, Det, Cle, CHC, stl, pit, was, nym, bos, tor, bal are all teams with a realistic-ish chance to make the playoffs. That’s 17/30 teams. The braves just aren’t one of them
I said only a handful are truly non-contenders at the start of the year. If that.
I wouldn’t call the Braves clear non-contenders at this point. Seems unlikely for ATL, but baseball is a highly variable game — both individual players’ performances and team outcomes — and mid-season moves also have an impact. If they added Frazier, that’d put a 4-5 win upside player (reasonably achievable, even if not particularly expected) into their lineup instead of someone who’s probably a 1-win guy. Assume a lot of things break right, and they make a mid-season deal, and suddenly … who knows?
If you think Arizona is a contender, we might as well say every team in the league is a contender and that includes the braves.
There is a lot more talent on Arizona than there is on atl.
I’m not sure that contender is the appropriate word for that situation, given the common understanding of what that term means with relation to sports teams and their probability of success for the season. It sounds more like you are saying they could be competitive.
Yeah, if you define “contender” as “reasonably expected to make or fall just shy of postseason,” then there are less teams. Guess I think of “contender” and “competitive” as largely analogous, but I can see why one would read the former as hinting at something more than the latter.
This is sort of like discussing phrases of art like “number X starter.” I probably shouldn’t have used that phrase, though I am also always cognizant of avoiding overly formalistic writing, which I tend to.
Regardless, seems like we probably agree on the fact that the Braves are roughly in the bottom third of the league in terms of reasonably expected wins.
Jeff you forgot to mention the 600 pound gorilla that always matters and
that’s :injuries..The teams that exceed expectations almost always have a very short meaningful DL list. Those that underperform? Almost endless.
Yeah, that is a huge element. Guess I wasn’t thinking of it as an element of a given team’s upside, but in truth, good health is in large part based upon good fortune b/c the mean expectation is to lose some guys for decent/lengthy stretches. (Health isn’t pure luck, of course; it also involves properly evaluating/valuing that into the equation in player acquisitions, providing good training and health evaluation practices, etc, as well as having good depth on hand.)
I’m not sure Frazier has a big market right now, he regressed last year and is on the last year of his contract. Most teams that are contenders already have a good 3rd basemen while all the small market teams and non contenders don’t want him because of the length of his contract and the price. There are other power options on the market as well. He might be a deadline move for a contender. I could see the Mets getting him if Wright retires, but I don’t see them giving the Sox what they will want for him. Fangraphs has Frazier at a projected 2.5 next season which is rated in the middle or 16th for 3rd.
Unless Frazier goes back to his Reds stance/swing/approach, this is who he is. He’s given up any sense of body/bat control for power. It was successful in the sense he hit a bunch of dingers, but that average, and in turn a terrible OBP is indicative of his new approach at the plate.
The Mets and the Giants do seem to stand out as ideal fits. With Cueto potentially on his last year, and keeping an infield spot open for Arroyo next season, it does seem an ideal ‘all in’ season for the G-Men. But this would be a sizable financial outlay on the Giants part after Evans said they are not adding additional payroll. So I wonder if that would preclude the Giants from consideration, that and their weak farm system would make a trade match challenging.
I could see it making sense for the Giants…as a Dodgers fan I’d hate to see them get stronger but it does make sense
I think that it would of made a lot of sense for the Dodgers to go after him and Robertson had they not signed JT…I’m not upset that we resigned him since the contract wasn’t unreasonable and shouldn’t become a huge problem down the line but it would’ve made a ton of sense for the Dodgers to make that move
With that being said, I see no reason why the Sox shouldn’t trade him and Robertson and go for broke on their rebuild…they’ve already done a nice job at restocking their young controllable talent, they might as well see it all the way through
I don’t think the White Sox aren’t seeing it all the way through, I believe they fully intend on eventually trading Frazier and Robertson at some point. It’s all about timing, and trying to maximize the return. If they believe that ultimately receiving a QO compensation pick is a better return than any packages they are being offered for Frazier, then they will just hang onto him and go that route. I think a market for him opens up in July if he is having a decent season and injuries arise for some contending clubs. Don’t see a suitor ponying anything up worth Rick Hahn’s attention this offseason, given the market saturated with players quite similar to Frazier.
I’m not sure I’d go as far as to say that the market is saturated with players like Frazier…he’s a 3B that the defensive metrics liked up until 2016 with 40 homer power. Most of the glut is in the 1B/DH types. I dont believe Frazier is to that point at age 30
testing
More likely wait for a early season injury and get the most value out of him. Maybe a good April / May will allow Hahn to fleece someone like he did the Nats for Eaton.
My question is why are Jones, Jennings, Putnam names not coming up in trade rumors. All had great years. All close to or at 30 years old and won’t be part of the rebuild. Get some more prospects for them.
I’ve wanted Atlanta to go for him since the beginning of the off-season. Basically every naysayer has thought differently when I mentioned having Freeman, Kemp and Frazier in the middle of the lineup. I have a feeling they’re going to surprise lots of people this year and adding Frazier would be a huge shot in the arm.
I think the Braves could surprise this year as well…they’ve also set themselves up to make a few moves at the deadline to continue to rebuild if they don’t surprise
Exactly. They’re in an awesome position. Gather pieces that could push them over the top without spending too much/mortgaging the future, then fire sale if it’s not looking good 2 weeks before the deadline.
The only way the Braves are “in an awesome position now” is if they’re doing advanced Hatha Yoga.
To me, their season will be a Downward Facing Dog.
You clearly haven’t been paying attention then.
Would have loved to send Fraizer to StL for Carson Kelly earlier, but can’t see the Cards doing that now. Giants and Mets should be a fit, not sure what SF would be willing to offer, but maybe the Mets can deal Zach Wheeler? IDK?
No way on the Kelly for Frazier idea. Gyroko posted numbers similar to Frazier’s, and it is a wash defensively. And Kelly is the Cards’ future backstop. What St. Louis needs is some left-handed thump. Ideally someone who can handle third base and a corner outfield spot. Also a catcher who swings from the left side of the plate. Dionner Navarro would be perfect, but he probably would prefer to go to a place where he can catch more often.
Agreed. No chance on Kelly – especially now. I said I would have loved to do that, but can’t see the Cards doing it. Valbuena would check most of StL’s boxes. Not all, but most.
Yeah, I wondered about him too. May be their best solution.
I forgot about Valbuena still being available
A guy who can play 1st or 3rd and has power? Perfect fit for the Pirates…after they DFA Jaso.
I feel as though the cardinals are among the most obvious fits. Jhonny Peralta has been just awful all around. I feel he could go with a prospect or two, and we’d have a serious upgrade between frazier/gyroko.
Bottom line is Hahn won’t get as much for his position players as he will for Quintana and Sale.
Rick Hahn already received a significant return of high level prospects in the recent deal for OF Adam Eaton, in the “ball park” with the Chris Sale trade.
Slugging 1B/DH Jose Abreu should fetch a comparable return to that of Eaton being in his prime years and with 3 more seasons of arbitration eligible control remaining.
Todd Frazier, switch-hitting OF Melky Cabrera and 2B/3B Brett Lawrie each have one year of team control left before becoming free agents following the upcoming season. All are established MLB veterans at or near their prime years. None are prohibitively expensive and each figures to be dealt no later than the summer trade deadline. Their value varies but each should bring a decent return in mid-level prospect(s) with Frazier potentially netting a top-10 organizational talent or better.
Nice article Jeff. I think more of these type articles would be nice during this slow time. I have never seen a writer comment on so many comments you can tell it is really slow. Thank you for giving us something to read and talk about.
Amen to that!
What would a realistic trade for cards and sox look like for Frazier? Carson Kelly is mostly untouchable as Yadis heir apparent. What would a prospect only trade look like?
Obviously Reyes, Weaver and Kelly are safe. I think it would take someone from the 2nd group + a younger project. Like Bader+Gallen or Flaherty+Denton.
I think it’d be super hard to pinpoint a prospect from the Cards. Carson Kelly obviously makes the most sense since the Sox are looking for a catching prospect, and he’s not that highly regarded outside of St. Louis. Like Cards fans have said though, he’s set to replace Yadi, so I don’t see that happening.
Outside of him, the obvious names – Reyes, Weaver, Perez, and Bader – are too highly regarded to trade for someone like Frazier coming off a down year IMO. And outside of those guys, I don’t really see many interesting pieces in the Cards system. So I guess it’d come down to personal preference if the White Sox see something they like out of the remaining guys. Maybe there’s an intriguing arm or 2 that Coop thinks he can do something with. Idk, personally, nobody really stands out to me talent or production-wise outside of the obvious few (I guess Flaherty is intriguing, but I’m really trying to look lower on their prospect list). But I’m not in the front office, so we’ll see.
The notion that only the Cards rate Kelly as specially is inaccurate. He won the Minor League Golden Glove in only his second year behind the plate, and then hit well in the AFL. He is coveted, but the Cards aren’t moving him. Plus the Cards have plenty of young arms. Alcantara is probably the most well known, but Gomber, who lead the AFL in ERA is also highly thought of. Add in Hudson, Fernandez and Woodford and the Red Birds have plenty of attractive young arms, but they have little interest in moving any of them for the likes of Frazier.
“The notion that only the Cards rate Kelly as specially is inaccurate. ”
1) I never said that. I said that he’s not that highly regarded outside of St. Louis (compared to how high St. Louis appears to be on him), which is absolutely true. Up to this point, he has never made an appearance on any Top 100 list that I’m aware of, and he was ranked around #10 for Cards prospects last year (and the Cards system is mediocre at best). So no, he’s not THAT highly regarded outside of St. Louis. That may change this year seeing as last year was the first time he has looked like a potentially competent hitter. You’re acting like I said he has no value, which isn’t even close to what I said.
2) I’m sure the Cards do have plenty of young arms. Every team does. But to me, outside of the top few, none of them really stand out or excite me. Not standing out and not being exciting don’t mean they have no value. Like I said, the White Sox very well could like one of the backend arms that I don’t personally have much interest in. That’s why I said it’d come down to preference, since nobody outside of the top few is a clear choice.
He’s flown up prospect rankings lately.
BA’s Derrick Goold had him #4 Cards prospect.
Mayo highlighted him in a “prospects ready to surge” article and said there was an argument to be made for him being the top C prospect in baseball.
Apparently Mozeliak put him on the same level of untouchable as Reyes at the winter meetings.
I’m sure he has flown up prospect rankings lately. Like I said in regards to his rankings, “That may change this year seeing as last year was the first time he has looked like a potentially competent hitter.”
In regards to being the top C prospect in baseball, I suppose that depends on what you value most. Overall, I’d personally take Alfaro and Mejia over him. Both of them have better track records with the bat and provide solid (if not plus) defense. If you’re one of those people that don’t care about having a catcher that provides value with the bat, then an argument can definitely be made for Kelly as the top C prospect. Or if you expect him to build on what he did with the bat last year, then he absolutely can be in the conversation for the top spot going forward. He’ll need to prove it for more than 1 year first before I just hand him that title though.
“Apparently Mozeliak put him on the same level of untouchable as Reyes at the winter meetings.”
That kind of proves the original point I was making… He’s not even in the same ballpark status-wise as a prospect like Reyes, yet the Cardinals (and their fans from what I can tell) view him as “untouchable.” He hasn’t been anywhere near that highly regarded outside of St. Louis up to this point. Again, that could absolutely change going forward, and in no way am I ripping on him as a prospect. Like I’ve said many times when talking about potential Sox/Cardinals trades with Sale/Quintana/Eaton/etc, Kelly would be near the top of my list for guys to go after.
He just doesn’t belong in the same category as an elite prospect like Reyes (and he isn’t regarded like that outside of St. Louis).
Derrick Goold is the Cards’ beat writer for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Hardly an “outside of St. Louis” source.
Even with that, one writer giving a #4 ranking in a middling farm system doesn’t make a kid a top prospect.
It’s more that the Cards haven’t found nor developed a successor to Molina, and with Molina’s defensive decline, it’s past time for that. That’s Kelly’s value — to the Cards.
When you say “outside of St. Louis” it implies bias. Perhaps one can read that as the Cards have a greater appreciation for him since they know him better, but I would suggest as stated many would take offense, as in, “only St. Louis fans appreciate his talents.”
Often St. Louis prospects aren’t highly valued by many, and yet their track record with guys like Carpenter, Diaz, Piscotty, Grichuk, Adams, Rosenthal, Lynn, Siegrist, et al all have bettered others’ opinions.
The Cards’ Minor League prospects are better than many suggest. Granted the majority of those players aren’t in AAA, due primarily to the fact that they have already graduated the the Bigs.
It is remarkable that a guy who has only caught 2 seasons, wins the Minor League Gold Glove. He is only going to get better defensively. His offense isn’t overwhelming, but the Cards insist their catchers catch first and hit later, a la Molina.
As to Molina’s reported “defensive decline” I disagree. He still throws as well as ever. and only his side to side mobility has lessened, but most of that is by design in an attempt to allow him to catch everyday. Defensive metrics still have a long way to go, especially with catchers. He doesn’t “grade” well on pitch framing, and yet he lead the Majors in getting called strikes on pitches outside the zone in 2016, which calls into question those doing the grading. What Molina doesn’t do is try to get calls on balls that are obviously balls, and only frames on tight pitches, which is appreciated by umps. His brother did an interesting demonstration on the MLB network, and re-iterated the folly in trying to frame all pitches.
The Cards’ pitchers the Sox should be interested in are, Alcantara, Gomber, Fernandez, Hudson and Woodford. But the Cards aren’t giving these guys away, cause they know how valuable they are.
Like Jeff Todd mentioned, the Red Sox are probably finished this off season. Nevertheless, I think they could use the extra power bat in trading for Todd Frazier. No one knows what Pablo Sandoval might bring to the table this year. So a top utility Brock Holt along with their now number 6 prospect 3B Michael Chavis might get it done. They could end up paying Frazier in arbitration around 12.5 M for 2017 minus 1.5 M for what the Red Sox would of payed Holt and still be under the luxury tax limit. Does that make sense Jeff?
Cards, Yanks, and Mets seem to be best fits. Just not sure the price tag on Frazier.
As a White Sox fan, I would hope we’d throw in some cash for a better return. But I wouldn’t expect anything higher than a 90-110 ranked prospects and a throw-in.
He’s a great team mate from following Sox and reading chgo papers last year
Frazier could play LF, he’s played there before and give the Dodgers depth at 1B/3B.
Why wouldn’t the Cards make a play for Jose Abreau? Keep Carpenter at 3B. Add some major thunder to an already powerful lineup. Not sure what StL would be asked to give, but I bet there’s something to talk about.
Guessing Carp at 3B and Abreu at 1B wouldn’t jive with Mozeliak’s stated desire to improve the defense.
For all these great pieces the White Sox had they weren’t very good last year. Anybody think that some of their players may be over rated?
No, not really. The team as a whole under-achieved. This was primarily due to other gaping holes in their lineup (catcher, CF, relief pitchers and back of rotation starters. SS was another big issue until Anderson was promoted. The WS had a great core but management failed to find supplemental players to augment that core. Unfortunately, I see no reason to believe that won’t happen again when all these new kids take over. While everyone lauds (rightly so) the Cubs rebuild they frequently fail to mention that in order to supplement the rebuild they signed a bunch of free agents driving their payroll around $200MM. This is where Sox rebuild will fall short
The Sox dont have to push the payroll to 200m to win the central though..they dont have to be the Cubs. They’ve managed to sign free agents and make trades creatively in the past. Actually, the Cubs are a unique situation…most fan bases wouldn’t go for the tank job they did. The White Sox are fully capable of performing a normal rebuild. They’ve honestly never had much of a system in recent memory. They’ve not had depth for sure. They are capable of being similar to Houston….as I view them as a mid market team in many ways. Sox dont need to win 106 games to be successful.
The Sox won’t be competitive for at least three years if they are truely doing and overall rebuild. So, you don’t really know how much they will have to spend to win the AL Central at that time.
So far the only guys they have traded were the two that led the charge against management in the LaRoche debacle.
So, even though I think it’s a full blown rebuild, 3% of me is still wondering if they just got rid Chris sissorhands and Adam (me) Eaton.
I was mentioning the 200m in reference to the top end cost that teams like the Cubs will spend. Move that cost 3-5 years to 225m or whatever…my point remains that MOST teams rebuild without being that select group of major market teams like the Cubs, Red Sox, or Yankees.
Sure…maybe all they did was ditch Sale and Eaton….but hindsight shouldnt be too harsh on them right now…because they’ve been largely lauded for their return.
All Im basically hearing is that people are skeptical that the White Sox front office is competent…that’s fair….but if their system starts paying out…I believe they are tipping into competent territory.
Nows the time to do it….the Cubs flat own Chicago at this point.
This is such an excellent point. After all the praise reap upon Theo for his drafting (and well deserved), 35 year old Ben Zobrist was the World Series MVP.
Reinsdorf didn’t spend around Sale and Quintana and he won’t spend around this new incarnation either.
Until we get an affluent sportsman as owner, the White Sox will remain that other team in Chicago.
Bulls in same boat
Wade brought in here to keep UC filled.
The reality is that Reinsdorf may not live to see the Sox compete again…and this is the first tear down he’s allowed. They rode that 2005 team into the sunset way too long and they were fine being mediocre. The reality is that the team has underperformed almost constantly for 10 years. The clubhouse atmosphere has been questionable…the management has been questionable. Its just good to see them taking SOME direction, because the past 10 years have felt like an owner who’s way too loyal just fielding an ok team. But i cringe awaiting the attendance figures in 2017…you can only have so many Paul Konerko bobblehead days.
Want him on the Yankees but why give up prospects when he’s a FA after the season.
Sox should keep him. until the trade deadline. There’s really not much of a market for him right now with all the other power hitters out there, so maybe Boston or another team will lose faith in their 3B or have him get injured and need someone to help them get to October. I would be upset if he’s still on the roster in August, though.