With baseball’s draft in the rear-view mirror, the focus for many clubs will begin shifting to trades over the next several weeks. In light of that, Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron breaks the league down into nine definite buyers, nine very likely sellers and a dozen bubble teams that are hovering around the .500 mark. As Cameron notes, there’s a case to be made in either direction for virtually all of the 12 fringe clubs, whose playoff odds, as calculated by Fangraphs, range from six percent (Angels, Twins) to 36 percent (Blue Jays). The proximity of stars such as Yu Darvish, Josh Donaldson and Manny Machado to free agency all have a bearing on a team’s decision, as does the overall composition of the roster. (The Mariners, for instance, have a significant amount invested in winning now with a number of aging key players, seemingly making them likelier to push for a postseason spot.) It’s a well-reasoned and comprehensive look at the competitive landscape of baseball in mid-June 2017 and is well worth a full read-through.
Onto some actual rumors pertaining to the trade market…
- Even if the Rangers fall out of contention, they’re not planning to move Darvish, sources tell Yahoo’s Jeff Passan. Texas badly wants to retain their staff ace beyond the 2017 season, though Passan points out that there are only 11 free-agent pitchers that have ever signed a $100MM+ deal — and each has done so with a new team. Still, the Rangers want Darvish to hit the market with Arlington being the only place he’s called home during his Major League career rather than giving him a taste of a new city that could push him further away. I’d add that retaining him also allows the Rangers to make a qualifying offer, though for top-tier free agents such as Darvish, the QO isn’t the same free agency death knell that it has been for second- and third-tier names that have been tied to draft pick compensation.
- Jonathan Lucroy, on the other hand, could potentially be marketed this summer if the Rangers drop far enough out of the race, Passan continues. Texas gave up a massive amount of talent to land Lucroy and Jeremy Jeffress last year, sending prospects Lewis Brinson, Luis Ortiz and Ryan Cordell to the Brewers for a year and a half of Lucroy and three years of Jeffress. Dealing Lucroy would allow the Rangers to get some value back if they can’t remain in contention, though Lucroy’s down season at the plate has been a factor in the Rangers’ underwhelming performance. Through 205 plate appearances, Lucroy is hitting a pedestrian .269/.307/.389. That’s perfectly acceptable for a catcher, but it’s a far cry from the .292/.355/.500 that he slashed last year.
- The Giants have yet to hold a “we’re open for business” meeting despite their awful standing in the NL West and NL Wild Card race, reports Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area. Giants sources tell Pavlovic that the team has been focused on the draft, but they’ll begin to look more closely at their 2017 roadmap now. Dealing Eduardo Nunez is an “easy decision” for the Giants to make, Pavlovic opines (I agree), but they’ll have more complicated questions to ponder when it comes to pitchers Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija and Matt Moore. While some may feel that Cueto would be best served to forgo his opt-out, Passan points out that James Shields got four years and $75MM late in the offseason when he was two years older than Cueto will be this winter. Cueto has four years and $84MM remaining following the 2017 season.
I think cueto as much as I love him on the giants and would love to see him stick around should be traded as a rental if for no other reason than to offload salary. If the Giants are going to stay competitive in the future they need to get under the cap by the end of the year and the best way to do that is to offload cueto, pence maybe shark – it isn’t a permanent strategy of not spending money but getting under the cap would allow you to keep the pieces you should keep – crawford, panik, posey, bumgarner – and try to rebuild around them.
There is no salary cap in baseball. If the Giants really want to compete they will have to suck it up and pay a luxury tax
the “threshold” (sorry I called it a cap)- you don’t get the way it works apparently. They have been at or over the cap for a number of years so next year every dollar over the “threshold”is @ +50% – currently they are @ +40%. the team only needs to drop down at the end of a season (I believe it is end of season calculated) in order to reset the status and then they become eligible for the standard luxury tax.. resetting the value would allow for the team to keep some of the higher priced assets like posey and crawford without being forced to deal and eat money on the deal in order to clear books. they aren’t that far over the line right now in commitments – if a team needs a closer and you can send melancon in a dump, cueto and pence it pulls the giantd way under the line and gives them operating expenses since they pay 0% tax on the first however many players depending on salary they sign and hopefully with the state of the system even mid ranked prospects in return can boost the farm a little
Agreed
There’s no cap in baseball.
threshold…. okay not cap – same thing the line that brings you to the luxury tax.
You can’t “trade him as a rental” because there’s no guarantee that he is a rental.
trading him as a rental implies return, not intent on the part of the team picking him up. If a team is in need of pitching they could do a hell of a lot worse than cueto but the thing is that a controllable guy brings a lot more than a rental. The reason that the giants may want to hold him though is that if he opts out – I believe there is a draft pick attached to him.
There would have to be some stipulation in the trade that says the Giants will pay the acquiring team x amount of money if Cueto doesn’t opt out. He is appealing as a rental acquisition but if he doesn’t opt out then the acquiring team is saddled with a heavy cash commitment.
that would make sense – except that he is pretty well market valued – I would expect more that they would do the opposite and pay if he opts out since there is a buyout if he opts out in his contract.
No draft pick attached to opt outs
If he doesn’t opt out it means he’s being paid above market value so the acquiring team would want the Giants to eat part of his contract if that happens. If he does opt out I don’t think the acquiring team would care about the money. A rental acquisition is never going to bankrupt you.
If the Giants don’t trade him and he opts out they have the right to QO him and realistically they will. Dodgers QO’d Zack Greene when he opted out of his contract a year and a half ago.
Stupid autocorrect. Greinke, not Greene
Look into it but I read somewhere that no qualifying offer attached to his contract
Agreements to not offer the QO are not allowed in the current CBA.
They are more than entitled to offer him a qualifying offer if he opts out.
Yeah, Lucroy to Cleveland…NOT!
hahaha exactly. even if gomes and perez combine to hit .200 i don’t want him on the team ever lol
Why not? Because he vetoed a trade? You sound uninformed and unnecessarily butt hurt.
He vetoed the trade because they wanted to use him at 1st base and he wants to be the catcher, not because he had a problem with Cleveland or the Indians organization.
Rockies win World Series if they grab more SP help.
Who would be their best target? Prolly somebody like Jason Vargas or Ervin Santana, Their offense might be the best in the national league
Their offense isn’t even the best in their own division…
Their offense probably isn’t even the 2nd*- best in their own division lol. Good case that the Diamondbacks are better too, especially if you include baserunning under “offense”
Santana pitching at Coors would be very entertaining. But not good for the Rockies. He started a game for the Angels there once, gave up 7 runs in 7 innings on 7 homers.
Try moving cueto and belt to either Yankees or Astros, trade nunez for a decent prospect. If they can move either shark or Moore to a contender they should pull the trigger.
the giants do need to retool , everyone should be on the block outside of crawford , posey and bumgarner
I would throw panik in that list too just because getting rid of a cheap young controllable toolsy guy in order to look for a cheap young controllable toolsy guy to replace him doesn’t make sense
Also Blach, Slater obviously
Yanks should trade Ellsbury for Cueto, they have similar salaries. That would open up CF for Hicks and Fowler.
Why would the Giants trade what is probably their most appealing trade chip for an outfielder in his mid 30’s who is being paid way too much? They already have 2 of those.
For the last time, TRADING DARVISH DOES NOT MAKE HIM ANY LESS LIKELY TO SIGN WITH THE RANGERS! With free agents, always assume they’ll go where the money is. If the Rangers trade Darvish then offer him the most money this offseason, he’s not going to punish them for trading him by signing with someone else. If they don’t trade him but someone else offers him more money, he’ll be on the first bus there.
I think he goes to the dodgers , and then in the offseason he signs with the yankees if Tanaka opts out.
Dude Tanaka has elbow hanging by thread n era north of 6….he’s not opting out!
You honestly don’t know how Darvish would perceive the Rangers–money or not–if they traded him this season and tried to re-sign him. Why do fans think they know what any given player will decide??
Based on what I know about Darvish, he’s a smart guy. I’m sure he will understand that he’s being traded because the Rangers have no use for a pending FA and can get some nice prospects for him and not because they doubt him as a player or as a person. I’m sure that if the Rangers trade him, they will have a conference with him to make sure they are still at the top of his list in free agency and that there would be no hard feelings from a trade. If anything, Darvish should be happy to be traded cuz it’ll mean he’s going to a team with a better chance of making it to the postseason and won’t be eligible to receive a QO in the offseason.
Lucroy’s numbers aren’t THAT far a cry from last year. Batting average-wise, he’s only about 4 and a half hits off last year’s pace, so that’s basically the same. The power has dropped off though.
Rangers holding onto darvish would benefit Giants meaning cueto becomes more attractive with less starting pitching available
Lucroy hasn’t had his hot streak yet, and he always does. He’ll be close to normal numbers by season’s end.
I’m down with trading Belt and Cueto to the Yankees, would would a realistic return be? Not getting Frazier, 2 arms and maybe Mateo?
Giants should be at least open to offers for most on the 25 save for Panik, Crawford, Posey, Bum and Blach. They won’t be able to move Moore and I’m ok with keeping the Shark but at least entertain any ideas. No reason the Giants can’t be competitive next year
Yanks wouldn’t take on Cueto contract and belt for Frazier, Mateo, plus!
The only way the Yanks take on Cueto is if Giants take a bad contract back! And then the Yanks don’t trade there best prospects on top of that!
So here’s a deal that can work. Yanks deal Elsbury, Hicks, and Mason Williams to clear room on 40 man for Cueto and Belt. I still don’t think the Yanks would do that dealing Hicks would hurt but it would free up a spot for Fowler and Frazier.
Do you not understand what trading for key players in order to go deep into the playoffs works? You can’t have it both ways. If you want Cueto you will have to pay for them both and salary and in prospects.
Billy has made it pretty clear that he doesn’t feel the Yankees should be trading prospects for short – term upgrades. I do think that’s justifiable, although I’d personally be a little more aggressive if they’re still in contention for the division in a month.
His efforts to dump Ellsbury on everybody are kinda weird though
Since trouts hurt the Yankees should trade a healthy Chris carter for him. That’s fair
Let’s face it this fall from grace is on Bobby E. Giants Brass it’s about marketing or winning? We’ll find out soon enough Giants fans!
Giants should replace front office. As well as bambam (hitting coach)
If Im the Giants EVERYONE but Posey and Madbum are on the block and Madbum goes on the block if he proves he’s healthy either this offseason or next year.
The Giants are over the luxury tax with a farm system completely out of talent. If they can dump Crawfords salary while recouping some value, do it. The Giants did the dynasty right- they took home 3 rings- but its time to reevaluate where they’re at.
Cueto and who else to get Derek Fisher from Astros?