11:44am: Rosenthal tweets that Tampa Bay is also discussing Pirates lefty Tony Watson. The 32-year-old Watson is earning a bit more than twice Wilson’s salary ($5.6MM) and is a free agent at season’s end. He’s also having a down year, with a diminished strikeout rate (6.3 K/9) and ground-ball rate (41.6 percent) to go along with an increased home-run rate (1.51 HR/9). Watson has a 3.67 ERA through 41 2/3 innings overall, though FIP, xFIP and SIERA all peg him for a mark more in the mid- to upper-4.00 range. Of course, given all of those factors, the cost of acquiring Watson, in terms of prospects, would be considerably lesser than the cost of acquiring Wilson.
More generally speaking, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets that the Rays have shown interest in virtually every reliever that has a chance of being made available, although certainly it seems that Wilson is higher up on their list than many, given the wording of Topkin’s initial report.
11:19am: Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that while the Rays do indeed have interest in Wilson, the prospect price is currently a bit high for them. Tampa Bay is expressing interest in a number of relievers, though, he adds. MLB.com’s Jason Beck tweets that the two sides are not yet close to a deal.
11:10am: The Rays have legitimate interest in Tigers lefty Justin Wilson, and talks between the two sides have gained some traction, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). The Rays are known to be on the hunt for a left-handed upgrade in their bullpen, which is further underscored by a new report from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports and MLB Network revealing that Tampa Bay was in on Sean Doolittle before he headed to the Nationals (Twitter link).
Wilson’s excellent production, modest salary ($2.7MM in 2017) and remaining club control (through the 2018 season via arbitration) all figure to appeal to the Tampa Bay front office. Set to turn 30 next month, Wilson opened the season as Detroit’s primary setup reliever, but a combination of his brilliant performance and a nightmarish season for closer Francisco Rodriguez thrust the southpaw into the ninth inning spotlight.
Wilson has picked up 10 saves since taking the closer reins from K-Rod, and more importantly has dominated opponents all season long, regardless of role. Through 35 1/3 innings, Wilson has averaged 12.7 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 to complement a 35.1 percent ground-ball rate. He’s posted a career-best 96.1 mph average fastball and a career-high 14.7 percent swinging-strike rate on the season as well. The end result is a 2.29 ERA on the season, with ERA alternatives like FIP (2.89), xFIP (3.29) and SIERA (2.67) all largely supporting his excellent season.
Personally, I’d like to see the Rays land Wilson over Strickland. We need more, and I mean at least one, good lefty. We have some decent righty’s.
Who would you offer the Tigers? They want 2 Top 100s prospects..
Maybe 1 top 100 and one semi-proven young league minimum guy would be enough.
I’m thinking either Mallex Smith and Jake Bauers or Bauers/Gillaspie and Whitley
Yeah let’s trade the only guy who we have that can play center field right now. You’d make a good gm. Bauers and a younger pitcher gets this done.
Tigers fan here… wasn’t really thinking from a Rays perspective. Just know that the Tigers have been high on Smith in the past
Ya because the rays don’t have the best center fielder locked up for years at an affordable rate on their team already. They really need a young cf prospect or they won’t have anyone to play CF. Deal from depth is what good GM’s do. KK isn’t being replaced by mallex Smith anytime soon and the tigers are clearly looking for a centerfielder
Nobody is saying that Mallex Smith is replacing KK anytime soon. What the above poster is saying is that Mallex Smith is CURRENTLY playing CF while KK is injured, and the Rays don’t have any other legitimate options to fill that role while KK is out. Right now, trading Smith for a reliever doesn’t make the team better. In a perfect world with a healthy KK, what you’re saying makes sense. But unfortunately for the Rays, that’s not reality.
Yeah I was hoping for jake bauers and a starter that’s close to the majors like Taylor guerreri
I’d take that deal
For which side
Yeah, this is pretty much spot on. GM would (and should) be fired if they dealt our starting CF for a reliever.
He’d be a tremendous upgrade & a good fit (both in terms of on field & future salary commitment), agreed. I would have to think that ~1.5 years of Justin Wilson won’t come cheap though (which makes me wonder how arduously the Rays will pursue this in the end).
While the rumor was that the Rays had scouts at the Giants/Padres series to watch Strickland, they were more likely there to see Hand. Strickland is a RHP and the Rays are looking specifically for a LH reliever. Buchter also pitched in that series and he would be cheaper in terms of prospects, but not as good of a reliever. Both have control beyond this season.
This is very interesting. Are Tigers asking for a 20-21 year old prospect?…. or maybe a MLB player at minimum salary?
could see the tigers asking for an of like jake Bauer or Jesus Sanchez plus maybe a Ryan Yarbrough who could fill a lefty pen role for Detroit next year.
I think there’s quite a difference between Gilaspie and Bauers at this point. If it was Gilaspie and Whitley I think tht’s a no brainer for Tampa Bay.
who said Gillespie?
I believe a top 100 prospects like Bauer makes sense and a lower prospect pitcher. Yarborough makes sense for Detroit as a guy who is on the verge of the majors and van contribute some next year if they don’t do a full teardown
It was tagged on the wrong comment chief. . The one above you said Gilaspie. Bauers for Wilson makes sense, you guys have LoMo for another year anyway and Gilaspie could turn it around.
LoMo on a 1 yr deal.
Well that complicates things. Brad Miller could slide over to 1B if they can’t sign Morrison back though,.
Shane Greene closes for detroit following the trade? He seems like the most likely guy to me
Maybe Alex Wilson?… or maybe try out a young pitcher like Buck Farmer, Boyd or Norris for that slot… for this year only.
Maybe. Alex Wilson doesn’t have closer stuff to me but Sam dyson got the job done last year so maybe. One of the young guys would be interesting.
I’m thinking Bruce Rondon will get a good look..
Idk about Rondon he’s been mostly bad as a major league pitcher. I know he has the heater but he walks too many batters and he’s hittable. I don’t see that. I think Joe Jimenez is a long term option but I don’t think he’s ready yet. Plus if you put Wilson or Greene in there you can let their value increase and deal them this time next year.
Yeah but they need to either chisel out a role for Rondon or trade him. His shortcomings come partly because of the uncertainty surrounding his role. He’s shown good flashes in late inning appearances if Detroit can find him a definate role and clean up his attitude and work ethic (if they haven’t already) he can be a lights out reliever.
I’d give Jimenez another shot as well
he should be the future. I agree- throw him out there with a long leash and see if this kid is real
They will cal lup Garcia or Jimenez. Greene will likely be the closer, but he does have issues this year finding the plate sometimes. But he can K guys and has a 49% GB rate.
Agreed. Greene would seem almost too obvious a choice, honestly. Could be a worthy tryout.
Wily Adames would be nice to bring back, along with a decent pitching prospect.
But they aren’t Trading him.
Tigers dealt Adames to TB years ago anyway. Not going to happen
HAHAHAHAHAHAH, keep dreaming boss! This wont land you Bauers, maybe Gillaspie and fringe pitcher than needs 40 man control like harris, wood, chirinos, etc.
He or Jesus Sanchez..
Brent Honeywell, Jesus Sanchez, and either a throw-in infielder or take a flier on Jumbo Diaz…It’s a little hefty maybe the Tigers can gift Steven Moya a fresh start while he still holds a little value…
Honeywell isn’t coming over for Justin Wilson. You have a better shot at getting De Leon although I don’t see either one.
Probably but Avila should be fired if he doesn’t at least ask lol
the rays are not giving up Honeywell for Wilson…I don’t see them letting go of Sanchez, either. I think he is vastly underrated by the media and (imo) has a very high upside….
Here come the Nationals!
Adames for BOTH Wilsons… Justin and Alex. Who says no first?
I don’t want Adams back…I think Honeywell is a stud tho…Pair him with Fulmer and fill out the rotation with Daniel Norris, Matt Boyd, and either Alex Faedo or Beau Burrows when they’re ready…. they might be competitive again in maybe 2-3 years. If they can trade off their chips for good players and can get some good draft picks this year and next year they might not have to do a full scale tear down…
There is no chance Honeywell or Adames goes to Detroit. You guys don’t have enough to offer if you’re not trading fulmer. Alex Wilson is an okay reliever, he’s not helping you get a top prospect. And the Rays have no use for JD so there is no way on God’s green Earth you could land either one of those guys.
Shane Greene’s controllability and talent might tempt them…package him with something else and you never know…Ik that’s its a longshot but I’d like to see Honeywell in Detroit…
I dont like Honeywells delivery.
Bet they look at Jesus Sanchez
Oh man, this is funny. Adames and Honeywell will not be part of any package, but it’s always nice to dream.
Wasn’t aware that you own the TB Rays…
Nope…just common sense that 1.5 years of WIlson won’t get you the same return as 5 years of Giles. You’ll be lucky to get borderline 100 guy like Gillespie with a fringe type throw in.
Do you understand that the only asset in your system worth Honeywell is Fulmer right? Fulmer is obviously more valuable, but there is no other single player worth as much as Honeywell, especially 1.5 seasons of a good, not elite, relief pitcher.
Please take Watson!!
If the Bucs can get anyone decent for Tony Watson, do it. His value in Pittsburgh will continue to fade due to Rivero’s emergence and the depth of pitching prospects in the organization. Tony might just be ready for a change of scenery. He really isn’t a closer, or a LOOGY, but he could be solid bullpen depth in Tampa or elsewhere.
Agreed–if the Rays said “Kevin Padlo” I’d say “Done” before they finished the sentence.
Tigers will ask for Honeywell. Wilson is a hot commodity right now that any team could use.
Completely agree, but I think that is too rich an ask for Tampa Bay. A comparable talent on a team in different financial straits though? Maybe.
Justin Wilson almost certainly won’t come cheap.
Rays can trade J Wilson at the deadline next year and will get something decent if need be. Might even trade him in the winter?
Exactly. He’s a really valuable piece, and the Rays are smart enough to recognize the safety net built into that trade. I’d say the Tigers would have taken De Leon for Wilson, but not now that he’s hurt. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Honeywell – Wilson swap here soon
From what I hear, the Tigers value his trade potential the same as when Giles was moved to the Astros. So .. is Velasquez equal to the Honeywell during their respective times?
They got two top 100 guys and 2 throw in for Giles. The market set the price for guys. Wilson is a hot commodity. I do know the TIgers want to get some young positional player. It make make sense that Adames is going back to Detroit in that case. Do the Rays need him when they have Becham and Hechovaira? Seems log jammed anyways.
I like Ryne Stanek as well
Important note about Watson, since being removed from the Closer role he has done pretty well… granted only 14.x innings but still a mostly good 14 innings.
Doesn’t help his value much but might make more appealing to someone looking for mid relief or setup man.
Id like RHP Ryne Stanek. in a deal with Tampa
I imagine there would be a pretty sizable price of acquisition difference between Wilson and Watson.
Wilson was traded for last year and he cost Detroit’s their #26 prospect and an unranked prospect. If he gets them 2 top 100 prospects, amazing return. Talk about swindling a team.
Hand would be a nice addition to the Rays, but I doubt Tampa will want to pay Preller’s high asking price.
However if Adames, Honeywell and Deleon are off limits, I still think Tampa has enough to get it done. If they are content pushing the eject button on Snell already then they could package him as the headliner, add Lucious Fox and a low level throw-in. San Diego could also add Maurer or Cahill to Hand to squeeze a third prospect out of Tampa.
Brad Hand and Trevor Cahill
Blake Snell, Chih-Wei Hu and Lucius Fox
So Rays are seeking a Closer. Colome has 26 saves and is not on the DL. Seems to me they need to be looking for a bat instead.
Look at his other stats bud and saves are a useless stat
Imagine being the all time leader in a useless stat….
The Rays are seeking a Left Handed Reliever. Justin Wilson wouldn’t close games for Tampa. Adam Kolarek is currently our best left handed option, so you can see why the upgrade is a must.
Uh, might also want to look how Rays offensive stats rank in MLB boss. LH reliever is tops followed by RH bat as ancillary need.
I absolutely agree with this and think a Martinez/Wilson trade could be a nice get for the Rays. That being said Avila would have to be much more realistic than his fans about the true value of these players. A package of Sanchez, Chirinos, Lukes and Harris is something I would do to help facilitate a run this year.
I wonder how much of Robertson’s salary Reinsdorf is willing to eat to get a deal done. I would love to add Sanchez, Bauers, or Lowe to the farm. Obviously that’s assuming that Adames and Honeywell are off the table, which they should be for any of the relievers mentioned.
yes please take away tony watson….
If they don’t get either of Wilson or Watson, perhaps Tony Cingrani could be a fit?
If the Tigers are truly asking for multiple top 100 type prospects for 1.5 years of Justin Wilson, Avila is either clueless or the best GM in baseball. I’m leaning towards the the former.
Last season, the Brewers traded 1.5 years at $7.25 million total of 4 win Lucroy and 3.5 years of closer Jeffress for a 55 FV OF, a 55 FV pitcher and a 50 FV OF. How much should the Tigers legitimately expect back for 0.5 years at $5.75 million Martinez and 1.5 years of closer Wilson? Tiger fans here think Wilson alone is worth 2 55 FV prospects by himself which is ludicrous to me. A much, much better Andrew Miller only returned 2 55 FV prospects and he had 2.5 years of control remaining.
This is so on point, and thank you for educating the Googans! Like many folks have already pointed out, there is not a chance Detroit gets the likes of Honeywell, Adames (or even Sanchez) for Wilson straight up – let alone both, as has been mentioned in quite possibly the dumbest comment I’ve ever seen on MLBTR – which is saying a LOT!
A-men to both of the above two posts. ignorance and “my team’s players/prospects are more valuable than everyone else’s” blinders are plentiful in some of these responses. people need to use historical evidence to get an idea of current market value – not arbitrary personal opinion.
Can’t blame Tigers’ fans for wanting them, but it blows my mind that Honeywell, Bauers, Mallex Smith, and even Jesus Sanchez names are brought into this.
Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson just went for Treinen and two mid tier prospects. And the Rays were supposedly in on Doolittle and wouldn’t pay that price. So…….
I could see Stanek or Alvarado being involved but I’d think that would be even too much.
Someone mentioned these names before, but Hunter Wood, Yonny Chirinos, Hu, Gillespie. Those sound like more of the names likely to be included. And if you think that’s a lowball offer, then oh well.
If I was the Rays, I wouldn’t trade any of our 55+ prospects. That takes Adames, Honeywell, Bauers, De Leon and Sanchez off the table. Wilson is good and does fill a need at a salary the Rays can afford, so I would move 2 50 prospects and a 40 for him. I might even bump that 40 up to a 45 who is blocked and needing a 40 man spot next year. That means something like one of Williams/Gillaspie/McCarthy and one of Guerreri/Franklin/Chirinos as the 50 prospects and a Grant Kay or Greg Harris type to round it out. If another team is desperate enough to beat that package, I have no doubt the Rays would let them.
That’s not going to get him. A lot of teams would easily beat that package and it wouldn’t be considered desperate
Guess we’ll see what he gets in a few days/weeks here…but it will absolutely not be honeywell, adames, bauers or sanchez (and i’d add De Leon to the list as well) – let alone more than one of the above.
I understand as a Tigers fan you want the largest return possible, but what evidence do you see that leads you to believe that multiple teams are willing to trade a larger package right now than teams have in the recent past for relievers of Wilson’s talent?
From 2014-2016, Will Smith had a 3.24 ERA, 2.94 FIP and 3.12 xFIP. He was traded with 3.5 years of control for a 50 FV pitcher and 45/50 FV catcher.
From 2014-2016, Jeremy Jeffress had a 2.56 ERA, 3.17 FIP and 3.23 xFIP. He was traded with 3.5 years of control along with 1.5 years of a 4 WAR catcher on an extremely team friendly contract for a 55 FV OF, 55 FV pitcher and 50 FV OF.
From 2013-2015, Justin Wilson had a 3.05 ERA, 3.25 FIP and 3.62 xFIP. He was traded with 3 years of control for 2 45 FV pitchers.
Since the beginning of 2015, Wilson has a 3.31 ERA, 2.92 FIP and 3.20 xFIP. He has 1.5 years of control remaining. Is there any reasonable reason that this current version of Justin Wilson should demand such a larger return as the similar quality pitchers above, even though he comes with half as much control?
Casey gilaspie is a 24 year old AAA 1st baseman batting under 240 with 8hrs. He is a throw in lotto ticket type piece in any trade at this point. Not a 50FV prospect. That outlook has obviously changed.
Not saying that Justin Wilson is the right guy to deal de Leon for but the more I think About it I think he’s more expendable than Bauers for a bullpen upgrade. The rays already have Archer, Faria, Snell (if he learns how to throw strikes), Odorizzi, Andriese, and Honeywell as rotation options for next year. Not to mention they have some other pitching prospects that could start. Maybe I’m wrong but de Leon looks expendable
Tigers fans are kinda delusional here.
Maybe a team with a high payroll will trade away highly valued young assets for a reliever, but that’s the opposite of what the Rays have ever done.
No way – Adames, Honeywell
Highly unlikely (as 1 for 1 trades) – Sanchez, De Leon, Bauers, Fox
More reasonable (a combo of 2 of these guys is the biggest steal you can let from Rays) – Gillespie, Hu, Guerreri, Yarbrough
You guys got Lucius fox + more for Matt Moore. And you got de Leon for Forsythe. You’re undervaluing the return almost as much as they’re overvaluing. Gilaspie has lost almost all of his value. A light hitting AAA 1B isn’t worth a whole lot. Yarbrough is a 25yo AAA pitcher who’s given up 15hrs. You have to give up a little if you want to acquire a good reliever.
What exactly is your point about Matt Moore? A young power lefty who’s shown front line starter capabilities was far more valuable in a trade than a guy who’ll pitch 35 innings per year, at least in the Rays eyes. Plus, Fox is one more year further along in his development making his value only increased further from that of 1 year ago.
Perhaps you missed the overarching point of my comment, which was, the Rays aren’t the team to trade top prospects for relievers. It wasn’t about Wilson’s actual value. Would the Yanks or Sox trade a top 10 prospect or 2 for Wilson? Perhaps. Highly doubt the Rays would trade even 1 of them
Also, I assure you Forsythe (like Moore) held more value (in the Rays eyes) at the time of his trade than Wilson. Making your De Leon argument invalid. Not to mention declaring “you traded item A for item B, so just be willing to trade item B for item C”, is a pretty poor argument from the start.
Also, basing Forsythe or Moore’s values at the time they were traded on current performance (which I’m sure ur doing) is another poor argument
Those deals really didn’t have anything to do with it besides saying the rays didn’t get fringe prospects back for above average players. This isn’t a 6 month rental if the rays aren’t in it next year they can go ahead and deal Wilson back and recoup the value they trade away. They have to get up a little more than you had proposed there.
The Rays traded 2 years of a 3-4 WAR 2B for De Leon, yet you think the Rays should turn around half a season later and trade him for 1.5 seasons of a relief pitcher. Not sure how you value players, but I’m not sure I follow your reasoning here.
Never said Rays should move De Leon for J Wilson. Specifically said don’t think j will is the guy but for the right upgrade in the pen I’d move De Leon. The only thing I said was the Rays have to give up more than hu and gilaspie or Yarborough. That’s a little low for a lefty that’s been pitching like a top 10 closer that you also get to control next year. The trades I threw up there were just examples of trades rays made where they got talent back, probably not the best examples. Top notch left handed relievers bring back a top 100 prospect or an equivalent package. 1.5 years of Wilson is worth something, he’s shown he’s lock down in the 9th inning and that’s worth something.
Wilson is a good pitcher and worth something, just not multiple 55 prospects. To a team like the Rays, I don’t think he is worth even one 55 level prospect. Will Smith was traded at the deadline last year. He is younger and had 3.5 years of control remaining compared to 1.5 for Wilson. Both are left handed and had almost identical ERA, FIP and xFIP over the 2.5 years leading up to the deadline. The Giants gave up a 50 FV pitcher in Bickford and a 45/50 FV catcher in Susac for 3.5 years of Smith. Why should 1.5 seasons of Wilson demand a better return today? If there is a team willing to pay that much, good for Detroit. I don’t expect the Rays to be that team and as a Rays fan I hope they don’t.
I agree with all of that. I think if the tigers get Lucius fox and one of their top minor league arms not named de Leon or Honeywell and it’ll take another thrown in lotto ticket guy. A young power arm or something. That would be an acceptable return. I don’t think that’s a crazy ask fox is a long ways away and strikes out a lot right now.
“Tigers fans are kinda delusional here.”
Welcome to MLB Trade Rumors…
You folks are thinking “fair trade”. But it’s not unlike selling your house; i.e. what’s “fair” is irrelevant; you get what the market will bear.
Wilson is worth whatever the other GM thinks he’s worth. And Gillespie/Yarborough are nothing; the only Wilson you’ll get for them is Flip, Not a chance on Honeywell or Bauers or Adames. Or Sanchez.
Fox is three years away but would be a decent return; he has enough upside. Fox and somebody more immediate (Jose Alvarado?) might work.
But it depends who others are offering…..
Agree with a lot of this, but not sure I’d consider Gillespie and Yarby “nothing”. The former has a very brutal 1st half he put up great numbers last year (and appears to have started to turn it around in recent weeks). The later of the two has had a solid year and should be a solid LH starter – which the Rays lack outside of Snell, who’s had a rough season thus far. Anyways, seems a bit premature to say both are nothing.
Gilaspie at the moment is a 1st base only prospect with no stick. Christian Walker was a good 1B prospect a few years ago after a nice AA year and he’s been Dfa’d how many times this year without playing a game in the bigs. He’s not very interesting right now. he’s not going to be the complimentary piece to any package for Wilson. Yarborough I don’t know all that much about but he’s a bit old and he’s given up a lot of hrs. Pitchers who come up at 26 can still have success, I’m not saying he can’t. but he’s not a headliner for Wilson. Wilson has pitched like a top 10 closer this year. The guy has been lights out
I don’t think Fox and Alvarado is a far off expectation in a deal with the Rays, but would lean against them pulling the trigger on that one.
I wouldn’t trade either of them straight up for him. Fox has a Jose Reyes vibe to him and trading a young lefty who throws 100 for a short term option sounds a lot like that Rivero/Melancon trade the Nats are now dreading.
Every deal is different but Doolittle is really good and with more control and just got a 29 yo reliever and mid tier prospects.
Rays should offer Cronenworth and Hu and if that isn’t enough, then it isn’t worth it.