In his latest pair of columns, ESPN’s Buster Olney tackles a host of trade-related topics. Each is well worth a full read-through, but here are some highlights…
- Olney lists Sonny Gray, Yonder Alonso, J.D. Martinez, Justin Wilson and Pat Neshek as five players that definitively will be traded prior to the non-waiver trade deadline. All of those players are known to be available, with the Athletics and Phillies at differing stages of a lengthy rebuilding process and the Tigers aiming to pare down payroll by moving short-term veterans. But, Olney’s strong characterization of the likelihood is nonetheless notable, especially since both Gray and Wilson are controllable beyond the 2017 campaign. The Brewers, Cubs, Astros, Yankees, Braves and Indians are among the teams in the mix for Gray, though likely not all to the same extent. Alonso, meanwhile, has reportedly had talks with the A’s about an extension, though Billy Beane’s rebuilding comments yesterday certainly lend credence to the notion that a trade could be the likelier outcome.
- The Braves, meanwhile, are “very much open to offers for Julio Teheran,” Olney reports, citing execs with other clubs that have spoken to Atlanta about the righty. Olney’s report meshes with recent indications from David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, as he writes that the Braves would like to move Teheran for a package of prospects but would first prefer to acquire a suitable rotation replacement for him. Teheran has struggled mightily at Atlanta’s new SunTrust Park this season (7.58 ERA, 13 HR in 46 1/3 home innings; 2.53 ERA, seven HR in 57 road innings), so perhaps the Atlanta front office thinks now more than ever that he’s best suited for a change of scenery.
- The Twins have let other clubs know that while they plan to be buyers at the deadline, they’ll act in a measured sense and won’t gut the upper echelon of their farm system in order to land a significant name. Minnesota has previously been linked to bullpen and rotation help, and while GM Thad Levine has outwardly suggested that the team will at least consider pursuing controllable assets this July, Olney’s column casts some doubt on how strongly the Twins will be in the mix for the top names available (e.g. Gray).
- The Padres seem intent on getting the best return possible on lefty Brad Hand at some point in the next two weeks rather than waiting for the offseason, Olney writes. While the 27-year-old is controlled through the 2019 season, there’s an argument to be made that his value is near its peak right now, especially with so many clubs seeking bullpen help. Olney notes that the Rays are one such team that is looking specifically for left-handed relief pitching.
- Currently sitting at 46-49 and buried in the AL West but just 3.5 games out of a Wild Card spot, the Angels will determine their deadline course based largely on their play in the next week or so, per Olney. A strong week that puts them closer to a Wild Card spot could lead to a conservative buyers’ mentality (similar to the Twins), but if they struggle and fall further back, rental relievers like Bud Norris, David Hernandez and Yusmeiro Petit could all be marketed. The same goes for other impending free agents such as Cameron Maybin and Yunel Escobar.
I love baseball. It’s crazy how the NL and AL differ so greatly in what records are considered contending for a WC slot
ATL is overloaded with prospects and one positive I can see the front office taking is trading quantity (and quality) prospects to someone like OAK that loves projects, as well as high ceiling players. ATL would clear some room at some levels that’s already needed as some of the lower level prospects (Drew Waters, Kevin Maitan) are already being promoted. This FO values high-end risk over high-floor players, which is the opposite of Wren’s MO. I can imagine a Gray trade for a package not as much as Quintana got, but then ATL would turn around and trade Teheran to get prospects back. While long-term controllability is the most important, we have the money long term to be able to extend, but I think they want to bring someone in and see them win and mesh with the team, proving they’re worth their money, rather than signing a free agent arm to a big deal and taking a risk — especially seeing how hitter-friendly SunTrust has become (shorter dimensions than Great American BallPark in a few areas).
Look at Quintana. Gets traded to a NL team cubbies and throws up zeros with 12 strikeouts.
If he were traded to Yanks his pitching line in Fenway would have been very different.
Two different leagues for pitchers as one is almost like AAAA.
The NL needs to go to DH or they should get rid of interleague play all together. One or the other. I love strategy that comes with no DH but then I also hate how pitchers in NL get in jams and pitch around lineups to get out of jams going after the opposing pitcher. At least for me it’s frustrating to watch in interleague. This is why AL clubs trading for a Hand or Tehran have to consider the league switch and regression that comes with it. Too much evidence to ignore it. Very small sample size of pitchers who pitch better in AL after leaving the NL and huge sample size when reversed of pitchers pitching much better going from AL to NL.
I wonder how much the road splits for Tehren other GMS are factoring into his value. Just looking at ERA makes you think getting away from Suntrust and you’d have a solid front of the rotation starter. Look a ltitle deeper though and his home/road xFIP splits isn’t nearly so dramatic (5.56/4.99). Kind of looks like his road stats are more of the outlier with a BABIP of 245 and stranding 85.9 % of runners.
Teheran has always defied the FIP. Yes, I do believe he’s incredibly, painfully inconsistent, but he performs better than what the FIP indicates.
“I wonder how much the road splits for Tehren other GMS are factoring into his value.”
I think they are going to factor it in pretty heavily, which is why they’ll attempt to buy low on him while his overall numbers look awful. That’s why I don’t think he’ll get moved this year. Teams will try to buy low, but the Braves have no reason to sell low. They are going to want full value based on his previous performance and road splits, and I don’t see anybody giving it up for him this year.
The Cubs aren’t in on Gray. Theo is there to drive up the price to make sure the Brewers include Brinson or Hader as the headliner along with another Top 100 pitcher (Woodruff/Burnes/Ortiz) if they ultimately land him. Theo has depleted their system in the past 12 months so needs to play an active role in helping the Brewers lose as much top tier talent as possible when targeting a Gray type player. Stearns isn’t giving up the immediate future for Gray
Halos need to sell. I think there’s a market for all of those listed above and maybe a prospect like Thaiss could also be made available too. We need to retool for 2018-2020 and 2B/LF are the areas of need.
You don’t sell when you’re 3.5 games out of a playoff spot. Like the article says, it will be determined by where they are after the next week. If they’re 7 back then unload. If they’re 2 back or go on a streak and hold a spot then they buy. Either way they’ll probably add on for next season any way.
See White Sox “White Flag Trade 1997” it even has its own Wikipedia page.
Earning a WC birth is not the ultimate goal. If you feel like we can compete for a WS the you are much more optimistic that I am.
Then trade Mike Trout already, he’d probably bring back literally any 10 non-superstar players from any teams MLB+farm.
and none of them would match the value he has
lolzz
No one will pay what it takes to get Trout, so forget this idea
agreed, sell of the rental players like norris, petit, escobar and maybin. But they should also be looking to buy long term talent if the chance presents itself.
Maybe the yankees could get Gray and Alonzo for a similar package like what the Nats gave up.
Being that Gray + Alonso are very cheap, no, not happening.
Doolittle+Madson were mostly a salary dump, WSN took on $25M. Alonso is like $1.5M and Gray is in arbitration for the next 3 years.
What about a deal based on a Gerrit Cole for Julio Teheran (assuming he’s not a Boras guy) swap?
Teheran already has one extra year of control and unlike Cole, it’s possible he could be extended.
That’s actually really interesting. And with PIT’s luck with getting the most out of pitchers (Liriano, Nova, etc.), I could see Teheran flourishing there better than anywhere.
Searage working with Teheran’s filthy stuff…would love to see that.
That’s an intriguing idea. I don’t see it happening, but it’s a bit outside the box, and that’s the way Huntington has operated lately: trade for younger, proven regular players instead of prospects (Felipe Rivero).
Twins gotta move some good prospects to get a guy like a Sonny Gray or a Brad Hand!
Tigers are 8 games under .500, but only SIX games out of the AL Central or Wildcard (they were 8 out on Friday and picked up 2 games in 3 days).
There are 72 games left. Weird how close they are to the playoffs.
They could be like Colorado in 2007. They have enough talent to make a run.
They have to trade the obvious guys stated in this article. That said, they can still compete and win the Central as the whole team is underperforming. Vmart is hitting the ball well but it’s not falling. Same with cabrera and kinsler. If the ball starts dropping and zimmermann can pitch a little above 500 and if sanchez can keep up pitching decent (minus sunday against a good lineup), and norris gets his crap together they have a good chance to be in the midst of winning the division.
6 games out of the wildcard, but literallty every other AL team outside of the White Sox is ahead of them. Detroit wouldn’t need just 1 or 2 teams to fall back, but the entire league to go about .500 while the Tigers set the barn on fire.
Get back to us when they get over .500.
Don’t even mention the playoffs lol
Package Wilson and JD together, and Tigers should get 3 top 100 players.
JD is a rental which means his price isn’t going to be anywhere near top value and Wilson only has 1 arb year left before he hits free agency. That is not enough of a package to get 3 top 100 players. In fact they’d probably be lucky to even get 1 for JD. Not only that, but the teams linked most closely to JD (Ari, Col, etc.) aren’t really top heavy systems that are going to give up big packages for rentals.
yep. unless we are talking about prospects 98,99, and 100 on a list.
Cespedes was a rental and older than JD. What did he get in trade?
Fulmer, who at the time was in the bottom of the Top 100 (I believe MLB had him at #98 at the time of the trade) and Cessa who was pretty much a wild card throw in.
and more expensive than jd
Jd should bring back at least one top 100 guy considering he’s the best bat available
I just don’t see the Cubs ponying up the prospects to get gray. I’d rather go with a Gausman or Bradley as the 5 as cost will be less with both having upside. Monty is in the pen and ready of the 5 falters next year.
That said, I think a team like the astros could certainly offer more than the Cubs unless the Cubs wanted to go with a piece from the 25 man. I don’t want them to do that at this point.
Interesting. Had not seen anything indicating Bradley or Gausman were available. Theoretically, anyone is available,but they won’t be cheap it the team isn’t shopping them.
Hey Pirates go get Teheran, give em Glasnow and some prospects. Heck throw Cervelli in there too!
Throw in Meadows while you’re at it.
If Glasnow even gets mentioned, Pirates might hang up the phone. They have not given up on him at all.
I’m still as bullish on Glasnow as anyone (even if he busts as a SP he could be an elite RP) but if the Braves would take him as a centerpiece in a Teheran deal, I’d do that in a heartbeat. I doubt they would.
This is getting towards a video game trade, but…
What if the Pirates resign Cutch and offer Cole and Meadows for Teheran, Albies and one other piece (perhaps their 4th best SP prospect or thereabouts)?
The bad part is the 4th best SP prospect for the Braves is either Ian Anderson or Kyle Wright. Neither of whom, would be traded. Maybe a Muller/Wentz.
I predict that the Angels will fall further on the stands and will end up having a fire sale… They just don’t have the pitching and the depth on the farm to trade for some decent arms…
Angels are a strange team I can see both buy and sell going on in Anaheim maybe sell off what you see there and buy Dee Gordon taking on salary. There whole Rotation is on the dl Soc has done remarkable job bringing this team this far
They’re 6th in ERA. It’s their offense that has let them down. 13th in runs is making it tough and if they fall further back it’ll be because of that. Their bullpen has shown no signs of wearing out when most pitching staffs that rely so kick on their pen would have already started to burn out.
The Braves are willing to give up our top prospects for controllable pitching while we are listening to offers for Teheran. I know he hasn’t been as good this year, but this just seems like a very contradictory stance.
Sounds like they don’t believe in Teheran as a torp going forward
People who suggest the braves should empty a farm system for Gray are out of their minds. The guy is worth a good return, don’t get me wrong.. but no reason the Braves should be the ones to pay that return nor is Gray worth what people are mentioning. 1 higher end top 100 prospect, and maybe 1 more top 30 prospect from the braves organization. I’m thinking the braves offer Ozzie and maybe another mid top 30 prospect for Gray, heck throw in a lower top 30 prospect if you want. Something like Ozzie, Sanchez, and Ruiz/Harrington. If they don’t bite move on. It’s not that Gray isn’t worth more (although I think this is plenty for him), it’s more that the braves just don’t need gray that bad and we are doing just fine in this rebuild process. Stay on course, continue to have too many good players in our minors.. All won’t pan out, but a good handful might. Don’t forget, we are playing .500 ball right now. Obviously we are doing something right in this rebuild.
Albies isn’t going anywhere if he does there plan for rebuilding go out the window
I mean, I understand your attachment to him. And I think he’s gonna be a dynamic player also with contact and speed. Although he seems to be striking out more this year… but giving him up for an Ace like pitcher that’s controllable is reasonable. and it doesn’t breakdown our farm as much as you think when it comes to the rebuild. I think he’s a part of the puzzle… but if he’s gonna be offered… then these other fans harping the braves should give up a ton more, they are out of their minds.
Atlanta should trade for Michael Fulmer and give the Tigers the position players they desperately need. Tigers OF, 3b and 2b. Castellanos will end up at 1b, Cabby is DH next year and VMART will be released or retire.
Convince Avila to go into full rebuild mode and they might.
For your top 4-5 prospects sure
Fulmer is not being traded. There will be no “fire sale” rebuild until the next TV contract is signed. Retooling will happen. They need to field a competitive team or they will lose their TV revenue.
Bauer for Teheran?
I know you’re trying to be funny… but this joke stinks.
Not joking. They’re so similar in hot and coldness that nobody would even notice the switch of players.
Bauer stinks. Teheran has at least had seasons where he has been a top of the rotation starter. Bauer has had one slightly above average year.
I’m not convinced on Gray to Atl with his injury history. I would like to see what it will take to get Gerrit Cole from the pirates. I think he’s a better fit in Atl.
I selfishly agree. Much better fit than Gray.
Yeah, Atlanta has really avoided pitchers with arm injury histories.
I cannot believe the Dodgers are not in the running for sonny Gray the Dodgers do this every year at the deadline they do nothing and guess what happens the go out in the first round or second round of the playoffs and that is what is going to happen again this year because our starting pitching is not good enough
I don’t think Sonny Gray to LA makes any sense. Wouldn’t Kershaw, Wood, Hill and McCarthy all be ahead of him in that rotation? If he was on the Dodgers I don’t even think he’d start a playoff game for them.
Dodgers have deep starting pitching, and they’ve been using the 10 day DL to keep arms fresh. Thats not really an area of need for them. His value is going to a team with weaker starting pitching, slotting in as an upper middle of the rotation guy and helping them get to the playoffs.
Except last year, when they acquired rich hill and reddick?
J.D. Martinez a “possibility” for the Cubs? In what MLB universe is Olney referring to?
I don’t see the Angels go into complete sale mode. I could see more of trading players who will be free agents. To teams looking to get rid of long term deals. Who have the prospects that are being blocked by long term contracts on players. Matt Kemp with the Braves is a good example. Even though Kemp is having a bounce back year, how many teams will be willing to take on that contract. With the Angels need for a middle of the order bat. And only two of their current outfielders under contract next year. Kemp could be beneficial trade for both teams. With the Angels not wanting to give away the farm, like they did when the former GM was here.
You are right about the Angels getting rid only of expiring deals, but Kemp does nothing for the lineup and has an ugly contract remaining. No reason for Eppler to take on someone else’s headache for the remainder of 2017 when the goal is to start fresh with FA class of 2017-18 this winter.
Kemp may be having a bounce back year in terms of HR’s and RBI, his overall value as a player is still not that great. I would imagine if they got Kemp they wouldn’t stop there. They need a 2B and at least one starter or more depending on how many of their returning arms will actually stay healthy.
Kemp, Phillips, Teheran would be a great fit for the Angels. But y’all don’t have the pieces to make this deal happen. You would have to take most kemps money, bedrosian would probably have to be a part of the deal, and quite a few prospects that don’t scream awesome in that weak system. Unless you want to give up trout for all 3, but even I know that’s not a good deal unless we throw a couple more players/prospect and even then meh… lol
Phillips seems like someone you should be able to get for a reasonable price. If I’m the angels and you need a 2B… he’s a good option.
This whole proposing trades thing, it’s just not for you.
The Angels have no reason to take on Phillips contract, since it expires at the end of this year and provides them nothing for 2018 and beyond.
Trading Matt Kemp is like the old kids card game of old maid. You just try to get rid of him before your season ends, or you’re left holding the bad card. He’s owed $32M by the team which will be taking him, and that doesn’t include the money being paid by the Dodgers and Padres. For that kind of money, he should be a 2 to 3 WAR player, but he’s been zero WAR for the last couple of years. Charitably stated, he’s an adventure in the field. The Angels don’t need another DH. That job is kinda filled.
Teheran–offering up a player with alarmingly declining peripherals? Ooooh, tell me more! Seriously, you can’t honestly believe that that’s going to raise much excitement in any other team, as long as he keeps falling by the wayside as he has this year. Plus, he’s owed $24M for the next two seasons.
And somehow, with this grab bag of crap, you think Trout would be involved? Seriously? Best advice I can give you is not to go to the county fair on payday.
The Brewers need to go after Gray, but not at the cost of Brinson or Hader. I would part with Ray, Diaz or Dubon, Ortiz and Trent/Gatewood. We need to hold onto Brinson, Hader, Woodruff and Burnes, keep Diaz or Dubon to take over second base.
Obviously that is the ideal scenario for the Brewers, but Ray has lost so much value that I doubt it’s enough to get it done at this point. Oakland is reportedly looking for young, high upside guys so maybe they will look past Ray’s bad start. Guys like Monte and Demi also apparently have caught their eye because of their athletic potential, so maybe a lower guy like that could help sweeten the deal.
Dodgers get: Tehran
Braves get: Maeda Stewart Diaz oaks
corey… interesting start of a conversation for sure. I don’t think the braves would want Maeda nor is in necessary to complete this deal. As a braves fan I think we should aim for Verdugo in this offer instead of maybe diaz. But you’re hitting exactly what the braves need/want… near MLB ready top organizational prospects.
Since y’all don’t have an outfield that’s doing their job right now, it would be interesting to see if there is a reunion of Matt Kemp in the books? If not, Matt Adams at 1b move Bellinger to the OF? Just talk.
Braves have recently been linked to going after former braves fans, homegrown boys. With that said, keep an eye on good ole Kyle Farmer, UGA grad and played high school ball in GA. He plays 2 positions the braves sorta need to fill, and he’s handling the bat down in AAA. Would love the braves to go grab him. Since our team is full of former braves fans, might be nice to add one more to the roster. Garica for Farmer?
If I’m the dodgers I would be happy to toss in kyle for maeda since he’s blocked by Austin Barnes for back up catcher
I would like the braves to go grab Farmer. I don’t think it will be a deal involving Teheran, we have some decent piece that might fill y’all needs. I think the mo to play for the braves would be greater since he’s from the area, playing at home, and assuming he’s a fan of the braves… I could be wrong… I played against farmer a lot when I was young, and talked to him a few times. I can swear he’s a braves fan.
I think Garcia would be a nice fit for you guys if you don’t go after anyone better. Farmer for Garcia makes sense to me..
The problem with Garcia for LA is he’s a 5, and the dodgers have about 4 other guys that can fill that spot already, so if they pick up a starting pitcher its going to be an ace or someone that can bump McCarthy down a spot in the rotation
Didn’t you just say this one post up?
Trading Hand to the Rays might be interesting. They could maybe get back a couple of interesting prospects. It looks like it’s just a waiting game right now for the next couple of weeks.
Maybe the Indians could get Teheran? What would it take?
I don’t understand why the Braves are trying to move Teheran?
Tried to leave comment on braves SS…
I think if Tehran gets rock tonight at Sun Trust park he will be traded by the trade deadline if the Braves can get a decent return for him
Funny how Braves fans were calling Teheran an ace last year…. and, no the answer is no.