In his latest pair of columns, ESPN’s Buster Olney tackles a host of trade-related topics. Each is well worth a full read-through, but here are some highlights…
- Olney lists Sonny Gray, Yonder Alonso, J.D. Martinez, Justin Wilson and Pat Neshek as five players that definitively will be traded prior to the non-waiver trade deadline. All of those players are known to be available, with the Athletics and Phillies at differing stages of a lengthy rebuilding process and the Tigers aiming to pare down payroll by moving short-term veterans. But, Olney’s strong characterization of the likelihood is nonetheless notable, especially since both Gray and Wilson are controllable beyond the 2017 campaign. The Brewers, Cubs, Astros, Yankees, Braves and Indians are among the teams in the mix for Gray, though likely not all to the same extent. Alonso, meanwhile, has reportedly had talks with the A’s about an extension, though Billy Beane’s rebuilding comments yesterday certainly lend credence to the notion that a trade could be the likelier outcome.
- The Braves, meanwhile, are “very much open to offers for Julio Teheran,” Olney reports, citing execs with other clubs that have spoken to Atlanta about the righty. Olney’s report meshes with recent indications from David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, as he writes that the Braves would like to move Teheran for a package of prospects but would first prefer to acquire a suitable rotation replacement for him. Teheran has struggled mightily at Atlanta’s new SunTrust Park this season (7.58 ERA, 13 HR in 46 1/3 home innings; 2.53 ERA, seven HR in 57 road innings), so perhaps the Atlanta front office thinks now more than ever that he’s best suited for a change of scenery.
- The Twins have let other clubs know that while they plan to be buyers at the deadline, they’ll act in a measured sense and won’t gut the upper echelon of their farm system in order to land a significant name. Minnesota has previously been linked to bullpen and rotation help, and while GM Thad Levine has outwardly suggested that the team will at least consider pursuing controllable assets this July, Olney’s column casts some doubt on how strongly the Twins will be in the mix for the top names available (e.g. Gray).
- The Padres seem intent on getting the best return possible on lefty Brad Hand at some point in the next two weeks rather than waiting for the offseason, Olney writes. While the 27-year-old is controlled through the 2019 season, there’s an argument to be made that his value is near its peak right now, especially with so many clubs seeking bullpen help. Olney notes that the Rays are one such team that is looking specifically for left-handed relief pitching.
- Currently sitting at 46-49 and buried in the AL West but just 3.5 games out of a Wild Card spot, the Angels will determine their deadline course based largely on their play in the next week or so, per Olney. A strong week that puts them closer to a Wild Card spot could lead to a conservative buyers’ mentality (similar to the Twins), but if they struggle and fall further back, rental relievers like Bud Norris, David Hernandez and Yusmeiro Petit could all be marketed. The same goes for other impending free agents such as Cameron Maybin and Yunel Escobar.
I love baseball. It’s crazy how the NL and AL differ so greatly in what records are considered contending for a WC slot
ATL is overloaded with prospects and one positive I can see the front office taking is trading quantity (and quality) prospects to someone like OAK that loves projects, as well as high ceiling players. ATL would clear some room at some levels that’s already needed as some of the lower level prospects (Drew Waters, Kevin Maitan) are already being promoted. This FO values high-end risk over high-floor players, which is the opposite of Wren’s MO. I can imagine a Gray trade for a package not as much as Quintana got, but then ATL would turn around and trade Teheran to get prospects back. While long-term controllability is the most important, we have the money long term to be able to extend, but I think they want to bring someone in and see them win and mesh with the team, proving they’re worth their money, rather than signing a free agent arm to a big deal and taking a risk — especially seeing how hitter-friendly SunTrust has become (shorter dimensions than Great American BallPark in a few areas).
Dookie Howser, MD
I would put Dansby in the high floor, low ceiling category, wouldn’t you?
I’m more in the case of Mid Floor Mid Ceiling. He won’t become a super star, he will always be serviceable yet times like these show his floor isn’t as high. I believe he will start doing a little better though
I still don’t think we have enough evidence to evaluate him, honestly. I know that’s a lot of excuses, but he needs to struggle before he can really get going. Not all rookies are going to pull a Bellinger, Judge, etc. Take Alex Bregman for instance — he’s a serviceable player, but is he a dud because he hasn’t been lights-out out of the gate? And can he never get better with more games under his belt? In both cases, I think we’re seeing their floors and not their ceilings. How long before we see their ceilings? Time will tell.
Just Another Fan
Exactly, you can’t act like a basic sophomore slump is going to be who he is from here on out. Many greats go through a teething process.
Dookie Howser, MD
I’m not saying he won’t get better – I believe he will. But I don’t see him being a franchise cornerstone, either. I think he will be a reliable, “safe” player in an up the middle position, which definitely has value, which for me puts him in that “high floor’ category.
SD Speak For Myself
Dansby is very slight frame…no power hitter…not a big arm.
SD Speak For Myself
I saw Dansby recently at petco park…my seats very close to visiting players. He is small…a slight frame…will not be a power hitter in my view. Doesn’t have a gun for an arm…might not live up to expectations.
Just Another Fan
If Gray goes to ATL, Maitan is the headlining the return for sure.
Can’t trade Waters yet.
I think Albies will be traded before Maitan
Just Another Fan
Interesting, I could see both in a Gray deal.
Braves fans: Sonny Gray is more valuable than any prospect you have and nothing you say can make that not true. Gray is awesome, its insane of you to say Maitan is worth more than him.
Its never not bizarre to me that people think prospects are more valuable than established MLB star players. Like, how can you not know that is just entirely wrong to think like that? Explain how you came to think like this, because its so entirely backwards its unbelievable to me.
Best I can do is Touissant, Wisler, and Demeritte
Gray is likely the better player at this point than any Braves prospect; but more valuable? I guess that depends on how much you buy into years of control and surplus value. I think the argument could be made that Maitan is a more valuable asset than Gray
your comment alone is about as insane as it gets… BOTH for gray? if your getting a chris sale then yes u mite include both but not for gray. he is worth one but not both.
hell will have frozen over before Albies and Maitan haed to oak. I suspect Albies and possibly soroka, and maybe a mid-tier prospect.
If a deal includes Albies, then a lower tier top 30 prospect or two is plenty enough to pull of this deal. I’m sorry, Gray is good, but not worth the haul being asked for…. especially from the braves, who don’t need him THAT bad. I said the same for Quintana… completely overrated for the haul that was being ask for. Both good pitchers, but worth emptying a farm system for? Even for the braves that have the piece to make a deal happen, why trade for him right now? Is he really gonna make a difference for us this year or next? He’ll be solid (if he stays healthy) I’m sure, but if we follow through with some of these outrageous offers like “Just another fan” advocates for, then it’s flat dumb. Those players very well could turn out to be superstars… or not.. either way I think we will be relatively in the same boat or better than if we were to trade them for Gray.
Yea…disagree. Sonny Gray has a 3.72 ERA. That may count as “More valuable then anything else” in Oakland, but in Atlanta, we know what top class aces look like.
From ’93 to ’99, Greg Maddux’s highest ERA was 3.57…and that was a half point higher then the next. ’95 on for Smoltz, the highest ERA was 3.49.
Sonny Gray is good…but he’s nowhere near HOF good, at least yet. At best, he’s a Tim Hudson comp. I love Huddy…but he ain’t Kershaw.
Comparing ERAs from the ’90s to ERAs now is ridiculous. Completely different environments. May as well compare current sluggers to Sosa and McGwire HR totals.
So anything below HOF starter Braves do not want? Sounds like they will never make a trade if that is their needs. That puts they want list at 3 starters all not available. HOF starters only get traded when at the start of their career or at the end of their career.
On the other hand, I think it’s odd that anyone would look at a pitcher who has compiled just 11 WAR in by his age 27 season and describe him as an established MLB star player. Gray was real good two years ago, but he’s been injured or just average since then.
bluegorilla, one can definitely argue that current ERA’s should be lower than steroid era ERA’s. So to whine about it the way you are is silly. Hey, i agree with you that ERA isn’t what we should be looking at here, but I think you’re ultimately missing the point I think he’s trying to make. Fans on this comment tread are acting like Gray is like Maddux Smoltzy etc.. but braves fans don’t bite at that because we have witnessed what good pitching is… and to be fair, recently witness what bad pitching is. We should have a well rounded idea of what a pitchers value is. Everyone needs to stop over valuing Gray and stop with these ridiculous hypothetical trades..
Market value definitely has increased his stock, but the kid just isn’t worth what people are throwing out..
Will never happen
Just Another Fan
He’s been awesome this year, he literally had one bad year where he played hurt (like a dummy). He’s absolutely back to who he was before 2016.
Albies isn’t going anywhere in case y’all haven’t noticed he’s our future second baseman and both the front office knows he’s vital for success in Atlanta watch some games and news before saying trade someone
No, I’m not saying that The Braves don’t want Gray, Quintana, or RA Dickey for that matter.
My comment is that you don’t trade anything and everything in the farm system for the best available pitcher when that pitcher is sonny gray. You do if it’s Kershaw…but Sonny Gray AINT Kershaw.
Gray is pretty confidently on the career path to be very Tim Hudson like, as I stated. I loved me some Huddy…but no one is mistaking him for a first ballot HOF’er. Kershaw has almost already earned that. THAT is who you trade Maitan for. That is who you trade Acuna for. Gray MIGHT get an Ozzy….but I still doubt it.
Just Another Fan…..
I did not say any prospect was better then Gray! I just said that I think Albies will be traded before Maitan. I think Maitan reminds the Braves too much of Chipper Jones and will not include him in a deal. That does NOT mean he is better then anybody in MLB now!!
Just like the Red Sox did not want to include Devers in a trade for Sale, I do not see the Braves including Acuna or Maitan in a trade for Gray.
Yes that may also mean that Gray will not get traded to the Braves. However, A package of Albies, Ian Anderson, and Max Fried could very well come CLOSE to getting Gray. The Cubs gave 2 top 100 prospects for Quintana plus 2 more lower prospects. Albies, Anderson, and Fries are 3 top 100 prospects….Yes I know Albies is not the HIGH end talent that Jimenez is in the Quintana trade. That is where the 3 top 100 prospect comes in.
Thank you. If these packages are what we’d realistically have to give up for him, I’d rather just sit tight. Wait a year and see where we’re at with our rotation next summer. It’s not like we absolutely need him now to make a run at the Series, we’re still only at the level where we’re competing to make the playoffs…
You are right about market value. He’s pretty much the only young starter with multiple years left in his contract that is on the market. If you wait, he will be on someone else’s team.
“Albies isn’t going anywhere in case y’all haven’t noticed he’s our future second baseman and both the front office knows he’s vital for success in Atlanta watch some games and news before saying trade someone”
You must have missed when they “dangled” him for Quintana…
@ Priggs89 I don’t know how much I would or wouldn’t believe that. First off, it was reported. It also could be the case that the Sox demanded him and the Braves said no. You never know.
Secondly, you don’t know the motivation of the front office. They could like BP, SRod, Dansby and Carmago in the mix for Middle IF, and intend to sign BP. There’s always the possibility of an inside track you don’t know about.
@ Priggs not to mention, if they like Profar, they were linked to him. You never know…Albies may have been replaceable if they got Profar.
You’re right, I don’t know that for sure. What I do know is:
1) Pretty much nobody outside of Atlanta would be surprised if that were true.
2) There are a lot less “untouchable” prospects than most fans on here think.
I don’t think that most of Atlanta views Ozzy as untouchable. I think he’s actually under rated right now, so I think that an outside source would have to value him over his prospect rankings currently. He lost some ticks on the top lists due to his arm injury, but is rebounding g just fine.
I don’t think anyone is untouchable. Look, if the Yankees called and said Aaron Judge and Gabby Sanchez for Freddie Freeman, I’d say bye to Freddie. The problem is, there typically are players that YOU as a club value more the. Other clubs will. Matian occupies that spot. If someone wants to overpay, let them. But they’re essentially the inversion of a Matt Kemp, Albert Pujols or Verlander.
Id take that for sure. I’d rather have acuña than Albies but I’d do albies, soroka, wiegel and minter all day.
Just watch: Braves trade Albies. Sign phillips to two year extension to retire on and stop gap for Maitan and camargo to progress further. Albies will go in trade for top line starter
Are you seriously arguing that the Braves should only be acquiring a HOF pitcher? Good luck with that!
99% of players who ever play in the majors don’t make it to 11 WAR
I said I wasn’t arguing that.
My point is that people are paying for pitching midseason as if every pitcher available and reliable is a hall of Famer.
Jeff Samardzija was never, is never, and will never be worth Addison Russell alone, let alone two other players. That’s insane. That’s borderline trade for Kershaw levels of talent.
They have 7 in the top 50 overall in the midseason rerankings, none of which is Maitan — they don’t need to include him nor would they. Gray hasn’t improved his stock that much.
Just Another Fan
Uh, have you been paying attention to Gray’s starts lately? He literally has the exact same FIP he had in 2014 and 2015 right now. His stock is sky high no matter what you think.
Great, but still not high enough to get Maitan – the prize of the most recent international signing period and a 17-year old kid with comps to Miggy. But I doubt ATL would give him up for much of anyone.
People asking for Maitan have zero clue what they’re talking about honestly. He won’t move for just about anyone realistic. The comps and the ceiling are too high
Matian, and now Acuna, would move.
If the angles gave the Braves Mike Trout and paid half his salary.
Or, the Tigers extended Michael Fulmer for 8 years and 45 million and then traded him.
And still not both.
lol not both for trout are you insane that’s the funnest comment ever hands down
Trout even with his salary is one of the most valuable if not the most valuable player in baseball. So if the Angels did move Trout and Atlanta wanted him they would pay none of his salary and still get a ransom from the Braves won’t happen because it’s almost impossible to match value with the best player in baseball.
Can’t be much of a sample size for comps, since they just signed him.
Unbelievably foolish. Gray isn’t worth near that. ATL won’t ship out a top bat for Gray. A big arm will headline any return package, insanity and stupidity to suggest otherwise dude
Just Another Fan
You dont know how trades work.
You don’t seem to understand that Coppy doesn’t have to trade for a decent #2 starter at all. We are doing just fine rebuilding and playing better than .500 ball in the last 40 something games. Very content to stick instead of overpaying
Just Another Fan, you don’t understand how smart, dynastic franchises work. It’s okay. If Oakland is your reference point, I get it.
You trade from strength. You also don’t get such a hard on for one prospect that you shut down a more talent Laiden package. If the A’s got offered 2 top 100 pitchers for Gray and passed because theyd prefer Maitan, they’re dumbasses.
Just Another Fan
“Take our crap for your good players” got it. Homerism is mental illness.
Exactly is that homerism? I just described the opposite.
Acquiring Grey, for Braves can only work out if they sign him to Long Term Deal. They are NOT going to make Playoffs and even if they did it’s one and out !
To hot to play in Atlanta Gray wouldn’t be good there he need amuse west team Cubs ,Cards, PIRATES even the dreamers -Brewers
Look at Quintana. Gets traded to a NL team cubbies and throws up zeros with 12 strikeouts.
If he were traded to Yanks his pitching line in Fenway would have been very different.
Two different leagues for pitchers as one is almost like AAAA.
The NL needs to go to DH or they should get rid of interleague play all together. One or the other. I love strategy that comes with no DH but then I also hate how pitchers in NL get in jams and pitch around lineups to get out of jams going after the opposing pitcher. At least for me it’s frustrating to watch in interleague. This is why AL clubs trading for a Hand or Tehran have to consider the league switch and regression that comes with it. Too much evidence to ignore it. Very small sample size of pitchers who pitch better in AL after leaving the NL and huge sample size when reversed of pitchers pitching much better going from AL to NL.
Or maybe he just had a good start?
God I love Tehran, and Hate tehran.. one game, he’s Cy Young, next he’s freaking joe dirt. I’m ultimately ok with the braves trading him. Should get a good enough return. Quintana was overpaid for… maybe we can get some fools to overpay for Tehran.
Teheran mostly does bad at Sun Trust and good everywhere else. He needs a change of scenery.
Maybe but then the fact is pitchers produce better stats in NL so there is that fact that went straight over your head.
There are different rules for each league, that had a ton to do with it…
Dookie Howser, MD
Rule. Singular. One different rule
Tell that to the Coor’s pitching staff!
What?! You realized he played against an AL team in their own park, so the DH was in effect?
Dookie Howser, MD
He also already pitched against Baltimore in Camden Yards this year. His line was 5IP, 9H, 4ER, 3BB, and 4K.
league, stadium, and opponent-adjusted stats have existed for 15+ years dude.
You do realize Quintana’s gem came against the Orioles from your precious AL, right?
Want to pad NL pitcher’s stats — let them face the free-swinging O’s.
What? I’m really confused as your first half of the statement made absolutely no sense. So he was traded to an NL team. We got that right. He has 12Ks because the O’s aren’t a very good baseball team right now. Ok check. But here’s the problem he was pitching in an AL park against an AL lineup. What? Q literally has no control over who he pitches against. So the first part of your argument is just inaccurate.
Quintana pitched against the Orioles….of the AL…..
I agree with you about the starters switching leagues, but not really with relievers. How many times does a late inning reliever get to pitch around someone to get to the pitcher? They dont, because at that stage of the game they would just be facing a pinch hitter. I have not really looked up data to support this, but I dont think there would be a whole lot of regression for a relief pitcher going from the NL to the AL
Considering he was pitching against an AL team.
Pretty sure Hand hasn’t been pitching to a lot of pitchers as a late inning reliever.
Quintana pitched against Baltimore yesterday. They are in the AL. But in the grand scheme of things, you are right, he’ll get better because he will face pitchers instead of designated hitters.
Just Another Fan
NL has 1 free out that gives ptichers a break and gets them out of jams – that doesnt happen in the AL so you have to be better and on your game 100% of the time, not throwing 3 mediocre breaking balls to K the pitcher with the .100 OPS..
Some of #9 American League hitters don’t hit any better than some pitchers
Just Another Fan
There are zero AL regulars with OPS’s under .400, and the ones that are .500-.600 are always in danger of losing their jobs.
Meanwhile there’s tons of pitchers with .100 OPS’s.
There are quite a few bad #9 hitters, but that’s still not even close to true.
Or maybe the AL dump the DH and get back to real Baseball
Avg Runs per Game since beginning of 2015:
So, every 6 games, AL team scores 1 more run.
Ban the DH.
You also have to consider that the NL has the the parks that have highest runs per game in it. Cincinnati Denver and Philadelphia. So those numbers could be help offset the run difference.
He pitched in American League park(oriole’s) so does he strikeout 15 when he goes back to wrigley?
He faced a DH.
An AAAA league that has won 7 of the last 11 world series.
Also, small sample size?
Far as relievers go Kimbrel, Madson, Gregerson, Vincent, Brach, Chapman, Boxberger all transitioned from the NL to the AL and have been effective relievers in the AL within the last 3 years.
Ill have to look up starters later.
But youll find starters that have been and havent been successful going to the AL from NL and you’ll find reliever who havent been successful.
But there’s much more to it than simply DH and no DH- ballpark factors, weather, etc also play major factors.
“An AAAA league that has won 7 of the last 11 world series”
Don’t you think it’s better to use Interleague numbers with all 30 teams year round than an extremely small sample of 2 teams playing 4-7 games, to judge which league is “better” head to head???
I’m not sure what the record is this year, but for a full season, you have to go all the way back to 2003 for when the last time the NL won more games than the AL head to head.
As a Yankees fan can you make an argument against championships are all that matter?
No kidding. I find it kind of funny that a comment that even mentioned “small sample size” in it tried to use a 7 game sample (AT MOST) to justify which league is “better”…
Don’t forget defense, a team without highgrade middle infielders make a huge difference or good defensive outfielders there is a difference
The Cubs had long innings at the plate, and put runs on the board. This will benefit Quintana greatly compared to the 1-2-3 innings of Sox offense he had to deal with. The result is more rest between innings and less pressure on him.
turns out, he (Quintana) pitched against an AL team (Baltimore). how dumb is this comment?
Quintana pitched against the Orioles in Baltimore, so I don’t know what your point is.
Many like to disagree with you but what you did write is true The NL has almost dead space in the 8-9 slots in the lineup and let’s face it most NL teams actually have a problem 7-9. While in the AL there is no hole there there is no automatic out via the pitcher and no dead space at the 8 and sometimes 7th slot as a result of the pitcher hitting. An AL pitcher has a better chance to excel once being traded to the NL than the reverse now that is ruling out true aces as they can be successful in any league but above average or simply good arms from the NL should take careful consideration as to how they well perform with the DH so good points Billy
He pitched against the O’s in an AL park.
Yes, the AL East is tough, the NL East not so much!
no, keep it the way it is. Watching the contrast between the 2 styles is something i enjoy and don’t want to lose either of them
Quintana just pitched against Baltimore in Baltimore…. last I checked Baltimore is in the AL… but yes his numbers should improve pitching in the NL.
Interleague is the best thing ever for baseball I remember when each league had 2 divisions in both league .( Boring ) lets be like Football every one plays every body 4 times then play your division 8 times per teams/ fun time still won’t the DH but one thing at a time for the Game⚾️
Dookie Howser, MD
I wonder how much the road splits for Tehren other GMS are factoring into his value. Just looking at ERA makes you think getting away from Suntrust and you’d have a solid front of the rotation starter. Look a ltitle deeper though and his home/road xFIP splits isn’t nearly so dramatic (5.56/4.99). Kind of looks like his road stats are more of the outlier with a BABIP of 245 and stranding 85.9 % of runners.
Teheran has always defied the FIP. Yes, I do believe he’s incredibly, painfully inconsistent, but he performs better than what the FIP indicates.
“I wonder how much the road splits for Tehren other GMS are factoring into his value.”
I think they are going to factor it in pretty heavily, which is why they’ll attempt to buy low on him while his overall numbers look awful. That’s why I don’t think he’ll get moved this year. Teams will try to buy low, but the Braves have no reason to sell low. They are going to want full value based on his previous performance and road splits, and I don’t see anybody giving it up for him this year.
The Cubs aren’t in on Gray. Theo is there to drive up the price to make sure the Brewers include Brinson or Hader as the headliner along with another Top 100 pitcher (Woodruff/Burnes/Ortiz) if they ultimately land him. Theo has depleted their system in the past 12 months so needs to play an active role in helping the Brewers lose as much top tier talent as possible when targeting a Gray type player. Stearns isn’t giving up the immediate future for Gray
Just Another Fan
Cubs are in win-now mode, A’s are in win-later.
Whoever gets Gray, wins now.
What does that have to do with my post? Theo doesn’t have any prospects left so he isn’t landing Gray unless he gives up 2 young MLB players (ie Happ Almora, Schwarber types). He already has Quintana, Lester, Arrieta, Kendricks, Lackey. Theo’s driving up the price. I think Gray ends up in Houston. They, like the Brewers, can get a deal done without giving up their Top 2 prospects but Houston already has other young players established whereas the Brewers don’t other than Santana (and Arcia to a certain extent but he still has plenty of growing to do). The Astros desperately need Gray whereas the Brewers could simply add Hader to the rotation now or wait a couple weeks to add Woodruff. Then they only need to target 1-2 more pen arms.
Just Another Fan
Gray has postseason experience, something no Brewer has. I see Chicago getting him and DFA’ing Lackey, to both get a guy to replace Arrieta next year and to block Milwaukee from getting him. Happ, Almora & Clifton for Gray is a trade that gets done.
Unless Theo actually makes a formal offer for Gray then him saying we have interest doesnt drive up the price.
After the Chapman and Quintana trade the cubs dont have much to beat the Brewers, everyone in the league knows this, whereas the brewers have other players to replace Brinson and Hader.
Ray instead of Brinson, Ortiz or Burnes instead of Hader
And something like Ray, Burnes, and Ponce with a 4th piece.
Just Another Fan gave a proposal that can absolutely get the job done. But it’s not going too because Theo doesn’t want to give that up regardless of what he does or doesn’t say. But he can still let it be known he’s seriously considering doing that to win another ring, which makes everything else a moot point if that happens (reference Chapman trade). That alone can drive up the price, he doesn’t need to make a formal offer. He just needs to have “serious like discussions” revolving around his MLB players to do so.
Yes, the Brewers can go with a Ray, Ortiz instead of Brinson, Hader but they’ll have to give more on the back-end because Ray, Ortiz is a step down. In saying that, maybe the As don’t want that because it’s not Brinson, Hader?
JAF proposed a trade that includes two ML pieces in Happ and Almora. If Theo is willing to part with both Almora and Happ to fill a need for pitching and create a hole in CF go ahead.
The Brewers however arent subtracting from the ML team by parting with Ponce, Burnes, Ortiz, Ray, etc.
Why are the Astros more desperate for gray than the brewers? Because they are more in a “all in” mode? They’re rotation is getting healthy, so how are they more desperate
Brewers are not trading Brinson or Hader and would be really surprised to see Woodruff there either as he will be in the rotation when he’s back off the DL. Stearns has said they won’t mortgage the future to make a run at anyone this year and he knows just as well as you that the Cubs don’t have the pieces to make a serious run at Gray. A’s have also proclaimed that they are all in on the rebuild and prefer high ceiling guys to MLB ready talent. Ray, Harrison/Clark, one of Ortiz/Ponce/Bickford/Diplan, and a wild card is as high as I could see Milwaukee going and I see Houston or Atlanta outbidding that.
I agree hence my last line. No way I see him trading Brinson, Hader, Woodruff or Burnes (and I can’t see him parting with Phillips either as he can be the 4th OF next year getting 400 PA). Hader he wants to use as his Andrew Miller type this year and it’s been almost 6wks since he’s been out of the rotation so, while he could step in there, I don’t see that happening. Woodruff definitely can step in potentially by month’s end and Burnes is flying through the system. I could see Ortiz but even then I’m sure he’s reluctant to do so. Ray, Ortiz, Harrison, Griep and I still think that’s too much for Gray himself
I cant see the Brewers trading Brinson or Hader, so I suppose if that is what Beane demands then the crew probably does get him
Hader has been a big part of their bullpen and Brinson is going to be up and playing in CF soon if Broxton doesn’t start playing better and at the very least will be contributing when rosters expand. They are not going to trade away from their big league club in a playoff run.
I just don’t understand these people saying their team is getting a deep discounted price for Gray. Why would the A’s trade him for a discounted price of a couple mid level prospects? I rather see the A’s keep him and not trade him. He has been on the trading block all year and so far no team has offered them what they want for Gray. So if it is a discounted price you are hoping for Gray isn’t getting traded.
Injury concern, terrible last season followed by a bad start to this season, not a real strike-out pitcher, one less year of control, there are enough red-flags around him to not fetch the same kind of deal that Quintana did. If Oakland is going to hit the all out rebuild then they have to weigh the options of getting what they can for him now or holding onto him and hoping he pitches lights out and they can move him in the off-season. Even so, the Brewers can take out Brinson and Hader and still offer pieces like Ray, Ortiz, Diaz, Burnes, or Dubon who are all in or close to top 100 rankings depending on the publication. Add in guys like Bickford, Clark, Harrison, Diplan, etc who are further out but have high upside and they can still offer decent value without touching their top 2 prospects.
Since Gray has pitched well his last few starts they will probably hold on to him than trade him for a few prospects that are not top prospects. Since he has another 2 years of control best to wait for his value to go way up. than discount him down. His value will be much higher in the off season after putting together a solid an healthy season.
Theo said not in on Quintana. Guessing he isn’t letting other teams known his game plan
Did anybody seriously believe Theo not being in on Quintana? They desperately needed an arm and had the pieces to get him – he comes with 3yrs additional control and he’s losing Lackey, Arrieta in FA. It made all the sense in the world to target Quintana.
You know that whole “drive up the price” doesn’t work right? If a GM is not savvy enough to know a player’s worth (floor and ceiling) he shouldn’t be a GM. Owners usually muck it up, not GMs.
The Cubs have genuine interest in Gray provided they can acquire him at a price their FO feels is fair based on their needs. Theo has been pretty transparent / they’d rather not trade anyone on the major league roster. So if their minor league system is insufficient then Gray goes elsewhere.
The idea that a GM can be manipulated by planted rumors is laughable.
The fact you think the only way someone gets word of their competitors is via “planted rumors” is laughable. Why did Theo offer the White Sox “much more” than any other team then? The Brewers were said to be legitimately in on Quintana and had the prospects to get it done as well. You don’t think Stearns had a hand in driving up the price? There’s no way he’s giving up Brinson/Hader for Gray when he wouldn’t even do it for Quintana but him letting Theo think he would means he had to come to the table with 2 similar type prospects….and he did. Greatly outbidding everyone else.
The Cubs needed Quintana right now. Theo/Jed got out in front to give fair value and start the acquisition process for next year, too.
Well if you are saying that “Theo is driving up the price” it has to be a planted rumor. Why would any GM exceed a predetermined level of comfort to get someone else to give up more? What if Oakland accepted? I guess he’s screed then because he paid more than the value placed on that player. So that is what doesn’t make sense. This isn’t fantasy baseball.
And why did Theo pay more than anybody else for Quintana? That’s what it took to get it done. He actually said “this deal doesn’t get done without Jiminez and Cease” so if that’s what it took to acquire him and he and felt it was worth it (it was, easily, two “A” players for a controlled starter with a solid history) then that’s why Theo did the trade.
But if it makes you feel better that baseball GMs have no idea of value and that they can drive up costs of short term and long term assets keep thinking that. I don’t want to be the guy that tells you Santa Claus doesn’t exist. You’ll have to make that discovery on your own.
Epstein is incredibly transparent. I don’t think he’s trying to trick anybody. But hey, if it makes you feel better to think that, feel free.
Halos need to sell. I think there’s a market for all of those listed above and maybe a prospect like Thaiss could also be made available too. We need to retool for 2018-2020 and 2B/LF are the areas of need.
RyÅn W Krol
You don’t sell when you’re 3.5 games out of a playoff spot. Like the article says, it will be determined by where they are after the next week. If they’re 7 back then unload. If they’re 2 back or go on a streak and hold a spot then they buy. Either way they’ll probably add on for next season any way.
See White Sox “White Flag Trade 1997” it even has its own Wikipedia page.
Earning a WC birth is not the ultimate goal. If you feel like we can compete for a WS the you are much more optimistic that I am.
Just Another Fan
Then trade Mike Trout already, he’d probably bring back literally any 10 non-superstar players from any teams MLB+farm.
and none of them would match the value he has
No one will pay what it takes to get Trout, so forget this idea
agreed, sell of the rental players like norris, petit, escobar and maybin. But they should also be looking to buy long term talent if the chance presents itself.
Maybe the yankees could get Gray and Alonzo for a similar package like what the Nats gave up.
Just Another Fan
Being that Gray + Alonso are very cheap, no, not happening.
Doolittle+Madson were mostly a salary dump, WSN took on $25M. Alonso is like $1.5M and Gray is in arbitration for the next 3 years.
What about a deal based on a Gerrit Cole for Julio Teheran (assuming he’s not a Boras guy) swap?
Teheran already has one extra year of control and unlike Cole, it’s possible he could be extended.
That’s actually really interesting. And with PIT’s luck with getting the most out of pitchers (Liriano, Nova, etc.), I could see Teheran flourishing there better than anywhere.
Searage working with Teheran’s filthy stuff…would love to see that.
That’s an intriguing idea. I don’t see it happening, but it’s a bit outside the box, and that’s the way Huntington has operated lately: trade for younger, proven regular players instead of prospects (Felipe Rivero).
Twins gotta move some good prospects to get a guy like a Sonny Gray or a Brad Hand!
Tigers are 8 games under .500, but only SIX games out of the AL Central or Wildcard (they were 8 out on Friday and picked up 2 games in 3 days).
There are 72 games left. Weird how close they are to the playoffs.
They could be like Colorado in 2007. They have enough talent to make a run.
They have to trade the obvious guys stated in this article. That said, they can still compete and win the Central as the whole team is underperforming. Vmart is hitting the ball well but it’s not falling. Same with cabrera and kinsler. If the ball starts dropping and zimmermann can pitch a little above 500 and if sanchez can keep up pitching decent (minus sunday against a good lineup), and norris gets his crap together they have a good chance to be in the midst of winning the division.
Dookie Howser, MD
6 games out of the wildcard, but literallty every other AL team outside of the White Sox is ahead of them. Detroit wouldn’t need just 1 or 2 teams to fall back, but the entire league to go about .500 while the Tigers set the barn on fire.
Get back to us when they get over .500.
Don’t even mention the playoffs lol
Package Wilson and JD together, and Tigers should get 3 top 100 players.
JD is a rental which means his price isn’t going to be anywhere near top value and Wilson only has 1 arb year left before he hits free agency. That is not enough of a package to get 3 top 100 players. In fact they’d probably be lucky to even get 1 for JD. Not only that, but the teams linked most closely to JD (Ari, Col, etc.) aren’t really top heavy systems that are going to give up big packages for rentals.
yep. unless we are talking about prospects 98,99, and 100 on a list.
Cespedes was a rental and older than JD. What did he get in trade?
Fulmer, who at the time was in the bottom of the Top 100 (I believe MLB had him at #98 at the time of the trade) and Cessa who was pretty much a wild card throw in.
and more expensive than jd
Jd should bring back at least one top 100 guy considering he’s the best bat available
Voice of Reason
I just don’t see the Cubs ponying up the prospects to get gray. I’d rather go with a Gausman or Bradley as the 5 as cost will be less with both having upside. Monty is in the pen and ready of the 5 falters next year.
That said, I think a team like the astros could certainly offer more than the Cubs unless the Cubs wanted to go with a piece from the 25 man. I don’t want them to do that at this point.
Interesting. Had not seen anything indicating Bradley or Gausman were available. Theoretically, anyone is available,but they won’t be cheap it the team isn’t shopping them.
Hey Pirates go get Teheran, give em Glasnow and some prospects. Heck throw Cervelli in there too!
Throw in Meadows while you’re at it.
If Glasnow even gets mentioned, Pirates might hang up the phone. They have not given up on him at all.
I’m still as bullish on Glasnow as anyone (even if he busts as a SP he could be an elite RP) but if the Braves would take him as a centerpiece in a Teheran deal, I’d do that in a heartbeat. I doubt they would.
This is getting towards a video game trade, but…
What if the Pirates resign Cutch and offer Cole and Meadows for Teheran, Albies and one other piece (perhaps their 4th best SP prospect or thereabouts)?
The bad part is the 4th best SP prospect for the Braves is either Ian Anderson or Kyle Wright. Neither of whom, would be traded. Maybe a Muller/Wentz.
I predict that the Angels will fall further on the stands and will end up having a fire sale… They just don’t have the pitching and the depth on the farm to trade for some decent arms…
Angels are a strange team I can see both buy and sell going on in Anaheim maybe sell off what you see there and buy Dee Gordon taking on salary. There whole Rotation is on the dl Soc has done remarkable job bringing this team this far
RyÅn W Krol
They’re 6th in ERA. It’s their offense that has let them down. 13th in runs is making it tough and if they fall further back it’ll be because of that. Their bullpen has shown no signs of wearing out when most pitching staffs that rely so kick on their pen would have already started to burn out.
The Braves are willing to give up our top prospects for controllable pitching while we are listening to offers for Teheran. I know he hasn’t been as good this year, but this just seems like a very contradictory stance.
Sounds like they don’t believe in Teheran as a torp going forward
People who suggest the braves should empty a farm system for Gray are out of their minds. The guy is worth a good return, don’t get me wrong.. but no reason the Braves should be the ones to pay that return nor is Gray worth what people are mentioning. 1 higher end top 100 prospect, and maybe 1 more top 30 prospect from the braves organization. I’m thinking the braves offer Ozzie and maybe another mid top 30 prospect for Gray, heck throw in a lower top 30 prospect if you want. Something like Ozzie, Sanchez, and Ruiz/Harrington. If they don’t bite move on. It’s not that Gray isn’t worth more (although I think this is plenty for him), it’s more that the braves just don’t need gray that bad and we are doing just fine in this rebuild process. Stay on course, continue to have too many good players in our minors.. All won’t pan out, but a good handful might. Don’t forget, we are playing .500 ball right now. Obviously we are doing something right in this rebuild.
Albies isn’t going anywhere if he does there plan for rebuilding go out the window
I mean, I understand your attachment to him. And I think he’s gonna be a dynamic player also with contact and speed. Although he seems to be striking out more this year… but giving him up for an Ace like pitcher that’s controllable is reasonable. and it doesn’t breakdown our farm as much as you think when it comes to the rebuild. I think he’s a part of the puzzle… but if he’s gonna be offered… then these other fans harping the braves should give up a ton more, they are out of their minds.
Atlanta should trade for Michael Fulmer and give the Tigers the position players they desperately need. Tigers OF, 3b and 2b. Castellanos will end up at 1b, Cabby is DH next year and VMART will be released or retire.
Convince Avila to go into full rebuild mode and they might.
For your top 4-5 prospects sure
Fulmer is not being traded. There will be no “fire sale” rebuild until the next TV contract is signed. Retooling will happen. They need to field a competitive team or they will lose their TV revenue.
Bauer for Teheran?
I know you’re trying to be funny… but this joke stinks.
Not joking. They’re so similar in hot and coldness that nobody would even notice the switch of players.
Bauer stinks. Teheran has at least had seasons where he has been a top of the rotation starter. Bauer has had one slightly above average year.
I’m not convinced on Gray to Atl with his injury history. I would like to see what it will take to get Gerrit Cole from the pirates. I think he’s a better fit in Atl.
I selfishly agree. Much better fit than Gray.
Yeah, Atlanta has really avoided pitchers with arm injury histories.
I cannot believe the Dodgers are not in the running for sonny Gray the Dodgers do this every year at the deadline they do nothing and guess what happens the go out in the first round or second round of the playoffs and that is what is going to happen again this year because our starting pitching is not good enough
I don’t think Sonny Gray to LA makes any sense. Wouldn’t Kershaw, Wood, Hill and McCarthy all be ahead of him in that rotation? If he was on the Dodgers I don’t even think he’d start a playoff game for them.
Dodgers have deep starting pitching, and they’ve been using the 10 day DL to keep arms fresh. Thats not really an area of need for them. His value is going to a team with weaker starting pitching, slotting in as an upper middle of the rotation guy and helping them get to the playoffs.
Except last year, when they acquired rich hill and reddick?
J.D. Martinez a “possibility” for the Cubs? In what MLB universe is Olney referring to?
I don’t see the Angels go into complete sale mode. I could see more of trading players who will be free agents. To teams looking to get rid of long term deals. Who have the prospects that are being blocked by long term contracts on players. Matt Kemp with the Braves is a good example. Even though Kemp is having a bounce back year, how many teams will be willing to take on that contract. With the Angels need for a middle of the order bat. And only two of their current outfielders under contract next year. Kemp could be beneficial trade for both teams. With the Angels not wanting to give away the farm, like they did when the former GM was here.
You are right about the Angels getting rid only of expiring deals, but Kemp does nothing for the lineup and has an ugly contract remaining. No reason for Eppler to take on someone else’s headache for the remainder of 2017 when the goal is to start fresh with FA class of 2017-18 this winter.
RyÅn W Krol
Kemp may be having a bounce back year in terms of HR’s and RBI, his overall value as a player is still not that great. I would imagine if they got Kemp they wouldn’t stop there. They need a 2B and at least one starter or more depending on how many of their returning arms will actually stay healthy.
Kemp, Phillips, Teheran would be a great fit for the Angels. But y’all don’t have the pieces to make this deal happen. You would have to take most kemps money, bedrosian would probably have to be a part of the deal, and quite a few prospects that don’t scream awesome in that weak system. Unless you want to give up trout for all 3, but even I know that’s not a good deal unless we throw a couple more players/prospect and even then meh… lol
Phillips seems like someone you should be able to get for a reasonable price. If I’m the angels and you need a 2B… he’s a good option.
This whole proposing trades thing, it’s just not for you.
The Angels have no reason to take on Phillips contract, since it expires at the end of this year and provides them nothing for 2018 and beyond.
Trading Matt Kemp is like the old kids card game of old maid. You just try to get rid of him before your season ends, or you’re left holding the bad card. He’s owed $32M by the team which will be taking him, and that doesn’t include the money being paid by the Dodgers and Padres. For that kind of money, he should be a 2 to 3 WAR player, but he’s been zero WAR for the last couple of years. Charitably stated, he’s an adventure in the field. The Angels don’t need another DH. That job is kinda filled.
Teheran–offering up a player with alarmingly declining peripherals? Ooooh, tell me more! Seriously, you can’t honestly believe that that’s going to raise much excitement in any other team, as long as he keeps falling by the wayside as he has this year. Plus, he’s owed $24M for the next two seasons.
And somehow, with this grab bag of crap, you think Trout would be involved? Seriously? Best advice I can give you is not to go to the county fair on payday.
The Brewers need to go after Gray, but not at the cost of Brinson or Hader. I would part with Ray, Diaz or Dubon, Ortiz and Trent/Gatewood. We need to hold onto Brinson, Hader, Woodruff and Burnes, keep Diaz or Dubon to take over second base.
Obviously that is the ideal scenario for the Brewers, but Ray has lost so much value that I doubt it’s enough to get it done at this point. Oakland is reportedly looking for young, high upside guys so maybe they will look past Ray’s bad start. Guys like Monte and Demi also apparently have caught their eye because of their athletic potential, so maybe a lower guy like that could help sweeten the deal.
Dodgers get: Tehran
Braves get: Maeda Stewart Diaz oaks
corey… interesting start of a conversation for sure. I don’t think the braves would want Maeda nor is in necessary to complete this deal. As a braves fan I think we should aim for Verdugo in this offer instead of maybe diaz. But you’re hitting exactly what the braves need/want… near MLB ready top organizational prospects.
Since y’all don’t have an outfield that’s doing their job right now, it would be interesting to see if there is a reunion of Matt Kemp in the books? If not, Matt Adams at 1b move Bellinger to the OF? Just talk.
Braves have recently been linked to going after former braves fans, homegrown boys. With that said, keep an eye on good ole Kyle Farmer, UGA grad and played high school ball in GA. He plays 2 positions the braves sorta need to fill, and he’s handling the bat down in AAA. Would love the braves to go grab him. Since our team is full of former braves fans, might be nice to add one more to the roster. Garica for Farmer?
If I’m the dodgers I would be happy to toss in kyle for maeda since he’s blocked by Austin Barnes for back up catcher
I would like the braves to go grab Farmer. I don’t think it will be a deal involving Teheran, we have some decent piece that might fill y’all needs. I think the mo to play for the braves would be greater since he’s from the area, playing at home, and assuming he’s a fan of the braves… I could be wrong… I played against farmer a lot when I was young, and talked to him a few times. I can swear he’s a braves fan.
I think Garcia would be a nice fit for you guys if you don’t go after anyone better. Farmer for Garcia makes sense to me..
The problem with Garcia for LA is he’s a 5, and the dodgers have about 4 other guys that can fill that spot already, so if they pick up a starting pitcher its going to be an ace or someone that can bump McCarthy down a spot in the rotation
Didn’t you just say this one post up?
Trading Hand to the Rays might be interesting. They could maybe get back a couple of interesting prospects. It looks like it’s just a waiting game right now for the next couple of weeks.
wants to be a GM
Maybe the Indians could get Teheran? What would it take?
I don’t understand why the Braves are trying to move Teheran?
SD Speak For Myself
Tried to leave comment on braves SS…
I think if Tehran gets rock tonight at Sun Trust park he will be traded by the trade deadline if the Braves can get a decent return for him
Funny how Braves fans were calling Teheran an ace last year…. and, no the answer is no.