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Justin Wilson Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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Reds reliever Justin Wilson underwent Tommy John surgery today, the team informed reporters (including Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Cincinnati also reinstated starter Mike Minor from the 10-day injured list to make his season debut, optioning outfielder TJ Friedl to Triple-A Louisville in a corresponding move.

Wilson has been on the IL since late April with what the team had called elbow soreness. Cincinnati transferred him to the 60-day IL last week, suggesting he wasn’t close to returning, and he unfortunately required a reconstructive ligament repair. It’ll obviously end his 2022 season and quite likely cost him the bulk or all of next year as well, given the standard 14-16 month recovery timetable.

The veteran southpaw has typically been a durable and effective middle innings option throughout his career. He’s exceeded 50 frames in six of his 11 big league campaigns. Aside from last season, he hasn’t posted an ERA above 4.20 in any season, and he’s the owner of a career 3.41 ERA. Wilson’s control has waffled at times, but he’s typically missed a fair amount of bats and handled hitters from both sides of the plate.

Wilson had the worst season of his career last year, however, allowing more than seven earned runs per nine over 21 first half appearances with the Yankees. The Reds acquired him midseason — assuming the remainder of his salary to incentivize New York to part with Luis Cessa — and he turned things around a bit in the second half. Wilson had a solid 2.81 ERA in 16 innings for Cincinnati, but his strikeout rate was still a few points below his typical level.

The Fresno State product exercised a $2.3MM player option for this season, but he made just five appearances before landing on the shelf. He’ll hit free agency at the end of the year. Wilson turns 35 years old this summer and surely won’t be ready for next Opening Day, so he seems a likely minor league deal recipient assuming he wants to continue his career. It’s not uncommon to see pitchers recovering from a major procedure ink multi-year minors pacts if they’re expected to miss most or all of the first season.

In more fortunate injury news for Cincinnati, Minor is slated to make his first start for the team tonight against the Nationals. The Reds acquired the veteran southpaw from the Royals for reliever Amir Garrett during Spring Training, aiming to backfill a rotation that was dealt a hit when Cincinnati sent Sonny Gray to Minnesota. It was surprising to see the Reds assume around $7.3MM in salary after they subtracted Gray and Wade Miley to cut costs, but the front office clearly felt Minor would be in line for a bounceback after a rough 2021 season.

Unfortunately, Minor was quickly diagnosed with shoulder soreness and wound up missing the first two months of the campaign. His was among a series of early-season injuries for the Reds, contributing to an atrocious start. Cincinnati sits at 18-32, ahead of only the Nationals in the NL. Their 5.91 rotation ERA is MLB’s second-worst (again, only better than Washington’s). Minor figures to join Tyler Mahle, Luis Castillo and rookies Hunter Greene and Graham Ashcraft in the starting five for skipper David Bell.

Reds Select Graham Ashcraft

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The Reds announced they’ve selected pitching prospect Graham Ashcraft onto the roster to make tonight’s start against the Giants. They also reinstated veteran lefty Ross Detwiler from bereavement leave, optioning corner infielder Colin Moran and reliever Jared Solomon to Triple-A Louisville in corresponding moves. To create space for Ashcraft on the 40-man roster, southpaw Justin Wilson has been transferred from the 10-day to the 60-day injured list.

It’s the second time Ashcraft has been called to the majors, but he’ll be in line for a much longer stint this time around. The 24-year-old first came up as a designated COVID-19 substitute for a series in Toronto, as the Reds placed a handful of players on the restricted list due to their vaccination status. That designation allowed Cincinnati to send him back to the minor leagues and off the 40-man roster without passing through waivers after one start. Ashcraft worked 4 1/3 innings during his MLB debut, allowing two runs with a trio of strikeouts.

A sixth round selection in the 2019 draft, Ashcraft has been impressive enough in the minors to jump into Baseball America’s list of top Reds prospects, coming in at #30 last year and jumping all the way to #9 this year. Last year, he split his time between High-A and Double-A, throwing 111 combined innings with an even 3.00 ERA, 28.4% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate. He got bumped up to Triple-A this year and has thrown 32 2/3 frames so far with a 1.65 ERA. His 20% strikeout rate and 11.3% walk rate are actually not that impressive, though he’s succeeding thanks to an incredible 71.4% ground ball rate.

Connor Overton recently landed on the injured list, joining Mike Minor, Nick Lodolo and Justin Dunn as the Reds’ starters out of action. Minor is on rehab and is expected back soon, joining Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, Hunter Greene and Vladimir Gutierrez in the rotation. Despite that, it doesn’t seem like this is a mere spot start for Ashcraft, with manager David Bell telling reports (including Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer) that he’ll stick in the rotation going forward. That means that the club either plans on carrying a six-man rotation for a while, or someone else will be getting the bump.

As for Wilson, he was placed on the injured list April 27 due to soreness in his left elbow. With this transfer, he’ll be ineligible to return to the big league club until 60 days from that original placement, which would be late June. The lefty exercised a $2.3MM player option for this year, which was a part of the deal he originally signed with the Yankees. He’s only been able to throw 3 2/3 innings so far this year and will now be out for at least another month.

Reds To Select Phillip Diehl

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12:45pm: The Reds announced the move, adding that lefty Justin Wilson is heading to the 10-day injured list with a soreness in his left elbow. With Wilson sidelined and Diehl up in the Majors, the Reds will still have just one lone southpaw option in the bullpen.

11:25am: The Reds are selecting the contract of left-handed reliever Phillip Diehl, reports C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic (Twitter link). It’ll be the Cincinnati native’s first big league work since appearing with the Rockies in 2020. The Reds have an open spot on the 40-man roster at the moment, so no corresponding 40-man move was necessary. The team hasn’t yet announced the transaction, though, so it’s possible it’ll be accompanied by other roster moves.

Diehl, 27, is in his second season with his hometown organization. He spent the 2021 season with the Reds’ Triple-A affiliate in Louisville, where he pitched to a terrific 2.47 ERA with a 33%  strikeout rate against a 5.6% walk rate in 54 2/3 innings of relief. Despite that showing, Diehl didn’t get a look in the big leagues with the Reds, who claimed him off waivers from the Rockies in early April and passed him through waivers a month later.

This season, Diehl has has yielded four earned runs on five hits and a walk with 11 strikeouts through eight frames. He’ll give manager David Bell a second southpaw option in a bullpen that had previously only included veteran Justin Wilson.

In 13 1/3 career Major League innings, Diehl has allowed 13 runs. He’s been outstanding at Triple-A dating back to last season, however, and has a long history of both missing bats (31.1% strikeout rate) and limiting free passes (6.7% walk rate) in parts of six minor league seasons.

The Tigers Continue To Benefit From 2017 Deadline Trade

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The Tigers and Cubs were going in polar opposite directions in 2017. Detroit was headed towards a last place finish that would kick off the massive rebuild from which they’re only now emerging. Chicago was trying to defend their drought-breaking World Series title, eyeing another division championship as part of what looked to be a dynasty in the making.

Given their respective competitive windows, they made for natural trade partners as that summer’s deadline approached. The Tigers were clearly preparing to sell off some productive big leaguers; the Cubs were willing to part with young talent to bolster their push for another championship. The day before the deadline, they agreed to a deal that sent a pair of veteran role players from Detroit to Chicago in exchange for two young infielders. Catcher Alex Avila and reliever Justin Wilson landed on the North Side, while Jeimer Candelario and Isaac Paredes headed to the Tigers.

Nearly five years later, the Tigers are reaping the benefits of that swap. Candelario, who had logged the briefest of action at the MLB level in each of the previous two seasons, served as a near-ready pickup. A corner infielder, he had no path to playing time on a Cubs team with Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo on the roster. But the Tigers could afford to give him regular run, and he was an everyday player by September.

Candelario has been a regular for much of the time since. He played in 144 games in 2018, performing around the league average on both sides of the ball. His 2019 campaign was a disaster, as his power evaporated and he was optioned on and off the active roster a few times throughout the year. That seemed to call his long-term future into question, but Candelario has turned things around over the past couple seasons.

The switch-hitter returned to appear in 52 of the Tigers’ 60 games during the shortened 2020 campaign. He posted career-best numbers, managing a .297/.369/.503 line over 206 plate appearances. That’s a very impressive showing but it’d have been easy to write that off as something of an outlier. Not only were those numbers compiled in an abbreviated schedule, he benefitted from an unsustainable .372 batting average on balls in play.

To his credit, Candelario largely backed up that strong performance last year. He tallied a personal-high 626 plate appearances over 149 games, hitting .271/.351/.443 with 16 home runs and an MLB-best 42 doubles. As expected, a .039 point dip in BABIP dropped his overall numbers a bit relative to 2020. Still, last season’s production checked in 19 percentage points above the league average (119 wRC+), and he did that over a much larger body of work than he had the year before. He now owns a .278/.356/.458 mark (123 wRC+) in 832 trips to the plate going back two seasons.

Nothing Candelario does stands out as excellent, but he has developed into a well-rounded offensive player. His contact rate, hard contact frequency and average exit velocity are all slightly above-average. So too are his line drive and barrel rates, as Candelario has demonstrated a knack for consistently squaring balls up. He’s been effective from both sides of the plate — .299/.350/.473 as a righty hitter; .270/.358/.453 as a lefty — allowing skipper A.J. Hinch to plug him into the lineup no matter the matchup. And while Candelario’s not a great defender at the hot corner, public metrics have considered him competent there. With top prospect Spencer Torkelson soon to assume first base duties in the Motor City, Candelario should be plugged in at third for at least the next couple seasons.

The Tigers’ rebuild has been ongoing for a few years, so Candelario’s recent production has flown a bit under the radar on non-competitive teams. Yet Detroit played reasonably well down the stretch, and this winter’s signings of Eduardo Rodríguez and Javier Báez — coupled with the looming debuts of Torkelson and Riley Greene — indicate they’re hoping to turn the corner in 2022. Candelario now looks like a key piece of that effort, and he remains under club control through 2023 via arbitration.

Paredes, who was in Low-A at the time of the trade, also remains in the Detroit organization. He’s yet to find much MLB success, but he’s coming off an impressive .265/.397/.451 showing over 315 plate appearances with Triple-A Toledo. He still has a pair of minor league option years remaining and could yet develop into a productive infielder himself.

That the deal worked as the Tigers had hoped — at least the Candelario pick-up — doesn’t mean it didn’t pan out for the Cubs. As mentioned, Candelario was going to have a hard time finding playing time in Chicago anyhow. The Cubs obviously didn’t develop into a dynasty, but their acquisitions of Avila and Wilson proved successful enough. The former hit .239/.369/.380 in 112 plate appearances down the stretch, providing a strong on-base presence behind Willson Contreras before departing in free agency. Wilson spent a year and a half in Chicago, posting a cumulative 3.86 ERA/3.66 FIP across 72 1/3 frames of relief. Neither player was a franchise-altering star, but they were never intended to be. Avila and Wilson were brought aboard to fill specific areas on the roster (backup catcher and left-handed relief, respectively), and they both fared reasonably in doing so.

All in all, it seems this trade served both teams well. Going in differing competitive directions, the Cubs’ and Tigers’ needs aligned. Avila and Wilson were short-term but effective players for Chicago, while Candelario has since developed into the solid regular Detroit envisioned. After a significant rebuild, the Tigers are hoping to contend this year. Candelario continuing to perform as he did from 2020-21 would be a quiet but important asset alongside their big-ticket additions and graduating top prospects.

Justin Wilson Exercises 2022 Player Option

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The Reds announced this afternoon that southpaw Justin Wilson has exercised a player option to return to Cincinnati in 2022. He’ll lock in a $2.3MM salary.

Wilson signed a fairly complex deal with the Yankees last offseason. Guaranteed a $2.85MM salary for 2021, Wilson could either opt-in to next year’s $2.3MM salary or decline the option. Doing so would’ve forced the team to decide whether to exercise a $7.15MM option or buy him out for $1.15MM.

There’s no chance the Reds — who acquired Wilson alongside Luis Cessa in a midseason deal — would’ve exercised their end of the pact. Not only has Cincinnati signaled a clear desire to shed payroll, Wilson is coming off the worst season of his career. The veteran southpaw hadn’t posted an ERA higher than 3.66 during any year from 2017-20, but that mark spiked to 5.29 as Wilson’s swing-and-miss plummeted. After consistently punching out close to or more than 30% of opposing hitters over the past half-decade, he fanned just 19.5% of batters faced this past season and generated whiffs on a tiny 8.6% of his offerings.

To his credit, Wilson did post a 2.81 ERA in sixteen frames with Cincinnati after the trade. That’s obviously far better than his 7.50 mark in pinstripes, but his peripherals were generally unimpressive with both clubs. The 34-year-old will try to right the ship and again cement himself as a trustworthy high-leverage arm in a return run at Great American Ball Park.

Yankees Acquire Pitching Prospect Jason Parker From Reds To Complete Cessa/Wilson Trade

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The Yankees announced they have acquired right-handed pitching prospect Jason Parker from the Reds. He is the player to be named later in last month’s trade that sent relievers Luis Cessa and Justin Wilson to Cincinnati.

Parker was Cincinnati’s 16th-round pick in 2019 out of North Carolina State University. He’s made his affiliated ball debut this season, working to a 4.05 ERA across 80 innings as a starter in Low-A. The 23-year-old has struck out a strong 27% of opposing hitters against an average 9.8% walk rate, albeit against generally younger competition. Parker was not ranked among the Reds’ top prospects at FanGraphs or Baseball America.

While the Yankees will add Parker as a flier to the lower levels of the organization, the bigger driver of the deal for New York at the time was creating immediate roster and payroll space to accommodate future deadline acquisitions. The Yankees would go on to add Joey Gallo, Joely Rodríguez, Anthony Rizzo and Andrew Heaney over the next few days. By including Cessa, the Yankees were able to incentivize the Reds to take on a little less than half of Wilson’s remaining salary, as well as his $2.3MM player option for next season. That was of particular import given the Yankees’ apparent insistence on narrowly ducking below the first luxury tax threshold.

For the Reds, picking up Cessa and Wilson (as well as Mychal Givens in a later deal with the Rockies) was part of a broader effort to remake a struggling bullpen. As a whole, the relief corps has continued to struggle in recent weeks, but Cessa and Wilson have both been stabilizing forces at the back end. Cessa has allowed four runs over 10 1/3 frames since the trade, while Wilson has worked 9 2/3 innings of two-run ball.

Reds Acquire Luis Cessa, Justin Wilson From Yankees

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In a surprise transaction, the Yankees announced they’ve traded relievers Luis Cessa and Justin Wilson to the Reds in exchange for a player to be named later. Cincinnati designated Ashton Goudeau and Edgar García for assignment to open 40-man roster space.

The appeal for the Reds is in the addition of Cessa, who was a dependable bullpen arm throughout much of his time in the Bronx. The right-hander is capable of working multiple innings and has been an effective pitcher over the past few years. Since the start of the 2019 campaign, Cessa has tossed 141 innings of 3.64 ERA/4.34 FIP ball. He’s been even more effective this season, working to a career-best 2.82 ERA over 38 1/3 frames.

Cessa doesn’t have the bat-missing stuff of most relievers. His 19.3% strikeout rate is well below the 24.5% league average for bullpen arms, and his swinging strike rate is similarly underwhelming. That’s basically been true throughout Cessa’s entire big league tenure, though, and he’s found a fair amount of success by throwing strikes and avoiding especially damaging contact. The 29-year-old is inducing ground balls at a massive 56.8% clip this year, and Statcast shows he’s been among the top twenty percent of pitchers in suppressing opponents’ average exit velocity, hard contact and barrels.

While the Reds don’t look particularly likely to make the playoffs in 2021, the acquisition of Cessa gives Cincinnati a potential multi-year piece for a bullpen that has been one of the league’s worst this year. The 29-year-old is earning just $1.05MM this season (less than $400K of which remains to be paid), and he’s controllable through 2023 via arbitration. With the Reds no doubt hoping to contend in 2022 (and not yet giving up hope of a late push this season), picking up an affordable, long-term bullpen piece holds obvious appeal.

Wilson has a long track record of productivity, but he’s in the middle of a disappointing campaign. The southpaw put up an ERA below 4.00 each season from 2017-20, but he’s only managed a 7.50 mark through 18 frames so far this year. Wilson’s velocity has gone backwards, and his typically lofty strikeout rate has plummeted to 18.1%. Given their own bullpen struggles, Cincinnati figures to give him an opportunity to right the ship, but it’s likely the Reds agreed to take on Wilson’s salary to incentivize the Yankees to part with Cessa.

New York signed Wilson over the winter to a somewhat complex contract. The southpaw is making $2.85MM this year (about $1MM of which remains). He has a $2.3MM player option for next season. If he declines, Cincinnati would hold a $7.15MM club option ($1.15MM buyout) on his services. Given Wilson’s struggles this year, it seems he’d be trending toward exercising his player option — but doing so would entitle the Reds to a 2023 club option worth just $500K north of that year’s league minimum salary.

Goudeau bounced around waivers throughout last offseason. He now seems likely to wind up back on the wire after making five MLB appearances for the Reds this year. He’s tossed 31 innings across eight appearances (five starts) with Triple-A Louisville, working to a 4.65 ERA with a below-average 16.1% strikeout rate. García has also spent most of the campaign with the Bats. He’s been quite good in Triple-A but hit hard over his five big league outings.

From the Yankees perspective, the deal frees some payroll space and clears a pair of spots on the 40-man roster. In addition to getting themselves off the hook for Wilson’s 2022 player option, New York shaves around $1.4MM off their luxury tax ledger in 2021. With the Yankees just a few million dollars shy of the $210MM threshold, the extra breathing room could enable the front office to pursue upgrades before Friday’s trade deadline. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link) suggests New York could look around the league for bullpen and/or shortstop additions, with a particular focus on left-handed bats.

Yankees Activate Luke Voit

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Yankees first baseman Luke Voit has been activated from the injured list, the team announced Tuesday. Additionally, right-hander Darren O’Day and lefty Justin Wilson both embarked on rehab assignments with Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. First baseman Chris Gittens was optioned after the Yankees’ game on Sunday, so the team had a vacancy on the active roster.

Voit, 30, has appeared in just 12 games so far in 2021. A torn meniscus required surgery and pushed his season debut back to May 11, and he went down with an oblique strain just two weeks later. That injury ultimately kept him on the shelf for just shy of a month.

Last summer’s Major League leader with 22 home runs, Voit showed some definite signs of rust in his first stint with the Yankees this year. He came out of the gates with an 0-for-10 skid and posted an overall line of .182/.280/.250 in 50 plate appearances before going down with his second injury. He’s looked much better on a rehab stint split between Double-A and Triple-A this time around, going 8-for-19 with a pair of homers and a pair of doubles in 20 plate appearances.

First base has been a black hole in the lineup at Yankee Stadium this season. Yankees who’ve been penciled into the first base position this year have combined for a miserable .176/.263/.285 slash in 267 plate appearances. DJ LeMahieu has seen the bulk of the playing time at first base, but while he’s hitting .259/.333/.352 on the season as a whole, he’s at just .234/.303/.324 as a first baseman. Voit, Jay Bruce, Mike Ford, Chris Gittens and Miguel Andujar have all seen time at the position as well, without much to show for it.

A healthy Voit would be a major boost for the Yankees, who are currently tied with the Marlins for the fifth-fewest runs in baseball (281). Voit not only led the Majors with 22 long balls last season, he batted a combined .279/.372/.549 with 57 homers in 892 plate appearances from the time of his 2018 acquisition from the Cardinals through the completion of the 2020 campaign. Meanwhile, the Yankees have posted a middling .232/.315/.389 batting line as a team in 2644 plate appearances this year.

Yankees Place Justin Wilson On 10-Day Injured List, Recall Deivi Garcia

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The Yankees placed Justin Wilson back onto the 10-day injured list with a right hamstring strain, per the team. Deivi Garcia was recalled to make a spot start for the Yankees.

There could be some long-term opportunity for Garcia to stick in the rotation, given the injury to Corey Kluber. The 21-year-old hasn’t been all that sharp through four starts in Triple-A, however, walking more than 17% of enemy combatants. He has one big league start so far this season, a four-inning outing against the Orioles late in April.

Wilson, meanwhile, was attempting to work through a hamstring issue. Through 15 appearances, however, he was clearly being affected. His 6.08 ERA/6.79 FIP through 13 1/3 innings are far higher than we’ve come to expect from the veteran southpaw. His 19.7 percent strikeout rate would be his lowest such mark for his career.

Another Yankee southpaw is on the comeback trail. Zack Britton is beginning a rehab assignment in Double-A, the team notes. Britton has yet to appear this season. Britton has been a huge piece of the Yankees’ late-game calculus for the past two and a half seasons.

Previewing 2021-22 Opt-Out Clauses & Player Options

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Next year’s free-agent class is a legitimately star-studded group even when focusing only on true free agents who’ll hit the market due to service time or an expiring contract. But the class has the potential to become even stronger depending on the play of this year’s collection of veterans who have opt-out clauses and player options in their contracts. Their performance over the next five months will determine whether they opt for another trip to the free-agent market or simply stick with the remaining salary guaranteed to them on their existing deals.

We’re about a sixth of the way through the season, so it’s worth taking an early look at how this group is faring…

Nolan Arenado, 3B, Cardinals (can opt out of remaining six years, $179MM): Arenado, who was always a better hitter at Coors Field, is yet another example of the manner in which home/road splits are overstated with regard to Rockies players. The 30-year-old is now playing his home games at Busch Stadium and still raking at a .279/.336/.507 clip with top-notch defense at the hot corner. Arenado has stated that he plans “to be a Cardinal the rest of the way” and said there is a “very, very high” chance that will forgo the opt-out clause in his contract. After the Cardinals tacked a year and $15MM onto the original five years and $164MM he had remaining on the deal, there’s less incentive for him to test the market.

Trevor Bauer, RHP, Dodgers (can opt out of remaining two years, $62MM): While some might balk at the notion of Bauer opting out when he’s guaranteed a whopping $45MM next year on this front-loaded contract, the opt-out wouldn’t really be about 2022 — it’d be about improving upon the total guarantee. Right now, if Bauer were to suffer an injury in 2022, he’d have a $17MM player option for the 2023 season. If he opts out this winter, however, he could aim to negotiate something similar to or greater than his original three-year, $102MM guarantee with the Dodgers. Bauer could still secure a huge salary in year one of a new contract but give himself a greater safety net against injury or decline. He also won’t have a qualifying offer to deal with this time and would be entering what most expect to be a market with more teams willing to spend. With a 2.50 ERA, 34.7 percent strikeout rate and 7.3 percent walk rate, the current NL strikeout leader is enjoying the kind of start that will make him think about it.

Nick Castellanos, OF, Reds (can opt out of remaining two years, $34MM): If Castellanos keeps hitting anywhere near this pace, that opt-out clause will assuredly be exercised. His age-29 season has kicked off with an outstanding .303/.346/.607 slash, and he already has 18 extra-base hits (nine homers, eight doubles, one triple) in just 126 plate appearances. Castellanos fizzled after a similarly electric start in 2020, so we’ll have to see if he maintains — but he’s one of the best hitters on the planet right now.

Charlie Blackmon, OF, Rockies ($21MM player option for 2022; $10MM player option for 2023): The Colorado fan favorite has come to life after a woeful start to the 2020 season. Over his past 13 games, Blackmon is hitting .319/.396/.447 with more walks than strikeouts. That surge still only has his season line up to .222/.328/.343 in 125 plate appearances, though, so Blackmon has plenty of work to do before he’d even consider opting out of a $21MM payday in what will be his age-35 season.

J.D. Martinez, OF/DH, Red Sox ($19.375MM player option for 2022): An ugly 2020 season had many wondering whether Martinez was beginning to decline. It seems safe to stop wondering. The first few weeks of the 2021 season have been some of the finest of JDM’s career; offense around the league is down, but he apparently didn’t get the memo, as he’s destroyed opposing pitchers at a .331/.416/.632 clip. His  10 dingers give him a share of the MLB lead. While there were some conflicting reports on the number of opt-outs in his contract at the time of the deal, MLBTR confirmed this week that Martinez has a $19.375MM player option for the 2022 season on his deal, so he’s controlling his own fate, so to speak. If he keeps hitting like this, why wouldn’t he test the market again (or at least parlay his performance into an extension in Boston)?

Jackie Bradley Jr., OF, Brewers ($11MM player option for 2022): The Bradley signing hasn’t panned out for the Brewers just yet. No one should be surprised to hear that Bradley has excellent defensive ratings through his first 260 innings in center field, but he’s hitting a mere .175/.242/.316 in 124 plate appearances. Bradley didn’t sign until a few weeks into Spring Training, and we’ve seen plenty of late signees start slowly in the past, but so far things aren’t going great.

Jurickson Profar, INF/OF, Padres ($6.5MM player option for 2022; $7.5MM player option for 2023): Profar hasn’t been anywhere near the hitter he was in 2020, slashing just .234/.333/.308 through 128 trips to the plate. The investment in Profar was always a risk. He was one of the least-productive hitters in the National League for the first month of the 2020 season and only salvaged his year with a blistering .375/.398/.534 showing in his final 93 plate appearances. That well-timed hot streak rather stunningly earned him a three-year guarantee and multiple opt-out opportunities, and he’ll need some more of that magic if he’s going to consider walking away from the $14MM he’s still owed beyond 2021. Profar is currently on the Covid-related IL for contact-tracing purposes.

Kevin Pillar, OF, Mets ($2.9MM player option for 2022): Pillar entered the season with a sub-.300 OBP for his career, and he’s not doing that mark any favors in 2021. We’re only looking at 66 plate appearances, but his .254/.288/.381 output looks more like his below-average career line than last year’s stronger showing. Pillar found a pretty frosty market for his services even on the heels of last summer’s .288/.336/.462 performance, so if he doesn’t turn things around at the plate, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him pick up the option.

Justin Wilson, LHP, Yankees ($2.3MM player option for 2022; Yankees hold $7.15MM club option/$1.15MM buyout if Wilson declines): Wilson has served up a pair of homers, walked five batters, hit a batter, and yielded a total of six runs in 8 2/3 innings. He also opened the year on the IL due to shoulder soreness, and his average fastball velocity is down at 93.7 mph after sitting at 95.1 mph in each of the past two seasons. A reliever with Wilson’s track record can turn things around in a hurry, but it hasn’t been the start he or the team envisioned. If Wilson exercises his player option, it triggers a 2023 club option valued at $500K over the league minimum, meaning he’d only do so with a particularly poor year on the mound.

Brett Gardner, OF, Yankees ($2.3MM player option for 2022; Yankees hold $7.15M club option/$1.15MM buyout if Gardner declines): The Yankees lifer hasn’t shown much life at the plate in 2021, hitting .190/.284/.238 in 75 turns at the dish. He has just one multi-hit game to his credit so far in 2021 and is being used in his most limited role ever.

Darren O’Day, Yankees, RHP ($1.4MM player option for 2022): The 38-year-old O’Day has been great for the Yankees through nine innings, but he’s currently on the injured list due to a strained rotator cuff in his shoulder. As long as he comes back and demonstrates his health, he should be expected to decline his option in favor of a $700K buyout. He’s only securing himself an additional $700K if he picks the option up — barely more than the current league minimum (which could very well rise in the offseason CBA talks).

Dellin Betances, RHP, Mets ($1-3MM player option depending on number of games pitched): Betances needs to reach 60 games pitched in 2021 for his player option to be valued at $2MM and 70 games for it to check in at $3MM. So far, he’s pitched one. It’s all but certain to be a $1MM player option on the righty, who may still take the deal given how catastrophic the last few years have been. Betances is on the 60-day IL with a shoulder impingement at the moment, and since Opening Day 2019, he’s totaled just 13 2/3 innings due to injuries.

Beyond this group, there’s also a conditional player option in the Mariners’ deal with left-hander Yusei Kikuchi. Seattle has until three days after the World Series wraps up to decide whether it wants to exercise a quartet of one-year, $16.5MM options on Kikuchi — a total of four years and $66MM. All four must be exercised together. If they do not make that sizable investment, Kikuchi then has a one-year, $13MM player option for the 2022 season on which he must decide.

At least based on Kikuchi’s career numbers in MLB, it seems unlikely that the Mariners would pick up their end of the deal. He’s compiled a 5.22 ERA through his first 246 1/3 big league innings. That said, Kikuchi saw a major velocity spike in 2020 that he’s actually improved upon again in 2021. Fielding-independent metrics were much more bullish on him than ERA in 2020 (3.30 FIP, 3.37 xERA, 3.78 xFIP, 4.34 SIERA), and this year’s current 4.30 ERA is respectable. He’s also sporting career-bests in swinging-strike rate, opponents’ chase rate, walk rate and ground-ball rate.

It’s still a long shot that the Mariners will pick up all four years on Kikuchi, who’ll turn 30 in June. However, that may simply set him up for a return to the market. It’s certainly plausible that he pitches well enough to command more than the $13MM salary on his player option but less than the four years and $66MM on the Mariners’ end of the arrangement.

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