Earlier today, MLB Network’s Ken Rosenthal reported that the Astros are still on the hunt for left-handed bullpen upgrades. That’s a logical target for a team that missed out on the likes of Zach Britton, Justin Wilson and Brad Hand prior to the non-waiver deadline, but bullpen upgrades won’t be easy to come by in Houston.
The Astros have their league’s best record, meaning any AL player that is placed on revocable trade waivers will have to go through the entire league unclaimed before Houston has a chance. And, any National League player placed on waivers will need to go unclaimed by every other MLB organization to make it to Houston. In other words: any clearly desirable left-hander isn’t going to make it to Jeff Luhnow and his staff.
Houston has had some success in turning scrap-heap arms into key contributors, though, as the presence of Collin McHugh and Will Harris on their roster indicates. They’ll need to hope for similarly good fortune in their 2017 efforts to add a southpaw, as there’s no longer a clear upgrade that Houston can easily acquire. With that said, here are a few speculative avenues for them to explore…
Struggling Left-Handed Starters
- Derek Holland, White Sox: Holland opened the season with impressive April/May ERAs that were backed by more dubious peripherals. He’s remained healthy but seen his results crater in recent months. But, he’s also held lefties to a dismal .216/.279/.333 line. A shift to a short-relief role would likely allow his 91 mph average fastball to trend upward, toward the 93-94 mph he used to average as a starter. Holland signed a one-year, $6MM deal this winter and is owed about $1.57MM of that sum.
- Wade Miley, Orioles: Miley was brilliant in his last start and has turned in three useful outings in a row, but the Orioles still may relish the chance to escape the money he’s owed. Miley is guaranteed $2.23MM through season’s end and has a $500K buyout on a $12MM option for 2018. He’s been rocked for a 5.17 ERA (5.09 FIP, 4.57 xFIP, 4.98 SIERA) but has limited lefties to a lowly .211/.326/.289 output.
Sizable Contracts
- Brett Cecil, Cardinals: Cecil’s first season of a four-year, $30.5MM deal has been a disappointment, as he’s averaging three fewer strikeouts per nine innings in 2017 than he has in any of the past three seasons and also has his highest BB/9 rate since 2014. Lefties have clobbered him in 2017, but Cecil has a solid track record and a contract that is extremely likely to clear waivers (if it hasn’t already). He does have a full no-trade clause, which adds to the potential complications, and it’s not at all clear that the Cards will be looking to make any such moves now that they have fully joined the NL Central hunt.
Bullpen Reclamation Projects
- J.P. Howell, Blue Jays: Howell has missed most of the season due to discomfort and tightness in his left shoulder, but returned earlier this month and has made three appearances in August. Despite a mostly solid four-year run with the Dodgers, Howell settled for a one-year deal worth $3MM this winter. He averaged just 85 mph on his fastball earlier this year but has added another mile or so to that total since returning. Howell thrived with just an 86-87 mph average heater in L.A., so he’s had success at this velo level before.
- Aaron Loup, Blue Jays: Loup is missing bats and has a ground-ball rate north of 55 percent, but his BB/9 rate is up from 2.5 in 2016 to 4.6 in 2017. He hasn’t had especially dominant numbers against lefties since an excellent 2012-14 run, but lefties that miss bats and have a chance to pass a decent ways through waivers are few and far between. Loup is earning $1.125MM in 2017 and can be controlled through 2018 via arbitration. Though he carries only a 4.62 ERA over the past three seasons, it’s at best questionable whether he’d make it to Houston on the wire.
- Ian Krol, Braves: Krol posted a 3.18 ERA with 9.9 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a 56 percent grounder rate as recently as 2016, but he’s had a disastrous 2017. Krol’s K/9 rate is down to 8.2, while his BB/9 rate has nearly doubled to 4.2. His gaudy ground-ball rate has plummeted to 40.2 percent as well. The 26-year-old has been clobbered by righties and lefties alike, but he can be controlled through 2020. His recent success and those years of control could lead a team to place a claim before he gets to Houston, though.
- Josh Edgin, Mets: Edgin was already outrighted off the 40-man roster, so he needn’t clear revocable waivers to move. The 30-year-old’s K/BB numbers took a nosedive in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery, though he did post a passable 3.65 ERA in 37 innings this year. However, even with that palatable earned run average, he still went unclaimed when placed on outright waivers in early August.
Solid Results, Limited Track Record
- Daniel Coulombe, Athletics: Coulombe has posted quality FIP marks in the past but has never gotten his bottom-line results to line up with those indicators until 2017. Soon to turn 28, Coulombe has a 3.63 ERA, 7.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a 53.9 percent ground-ball rate in 39 2/3 innings.
- Daniel Stumpf, Tigers: Stumpf turned in a nice performance in Triple-A, and while his strikeout totals haven’t carried over to the bigs, he’s been a useful ‘pen piece in small sample. Through 22 1/3 innings, the former Rule 5 pick has a 2.78 ERA, though his secondary stats don’t support that mark. Stumpf has averaged 7.9 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9 against a 42.2 percent ground-ball rate. He can be controlled through 2022, though he comes with an 80-game PED suspension on his record.
- Sam Freeman, Braves: It may not be all that likely that the 30-year-old Freeman would get anywhere close to the Astros on the waiver wire. He’s having a nice season, with a 3.43 ERA, 10.1 K/9, 4.3 BB/9 and a 59 percent ground-ball rate in 42 innings. He’s also controlled through the 2020 campaign. He’s bounced around the league via minor trades in recent years and signed a minor league deal this past winter, but his 2017 performance would almost certainly lead to more interest than he’s generated in the past.
Devenski has an opponent’s average of .100 against lefties because of that change up. A lefty is not as much of a need as people think
1 guy can’t pitch 3 innings every night
1 lefty named Tony Sipp does not a bullpen make.
Put a claim on Chapman when he goes on waivers.
It’s puzzling why Astros did not pull the trigger for Hand. I don’t believe that Preller was asking for multiple Top 100 prospect; and for a dominant relief pitcher especially with long term control, top prospect is an adequate price. The trend I saw this deadline was that the team deemed “untouchable” status to a prospect(a), perhaps more prevalent in Astros’ case, that the teams were unwilling to deal for a proven arms at the Major League level. Hand could have fit right in to the HOU bullpen and excelled, but hey, opportunity cost of holding on to their prospects maybe a blown pen in the playoffs…
Hand would have been a great fit. Astros just valued too many of their prospects too much I guess which is silly considering the normal window of teams to be that good
Without knowing what the asking price from the Padres was, how can you say they were valuing too many prospects too much?
There are a ton of articles that talk about what the asking price was. A top 100 prospect and 1-2 other good prospects or 1 elite prospect. Either way, if you want a pitcher to get you over the top, you pay the price. The Astros chose not to and they are paying the price in another way. Their win percentage is .429 in the 2nd half. .250 in 12 games in August. Their pitching staff has a 5.28 ERA in the 2nd half and the relievers have not done even that well. They blew it big time.
Hand as a lefty reliever is not worth a top 100 prospect and two additional pieces.
That price is like the equivalent of trying to get Dan Strailey.
Additionally the pen has been doing great after an initial scuffle after the break.
So far in August it’s been the best pen in the big leagues with Musgrove transitioning to the pen. It would probably be even lower if you took the outliers of Lirano and Sipp out of the equation.
Right now the staff ERA has been inflated thanks in large part to Keuchel essentially going through a full speed spring training to build up strength and get his mechanics to be repeatable again after a pinch nerve in his neck kept him from maintaining his strength and for him to throw while on the DL.
McHugh is still a quality start machine, Peacock has had one bad luck outing and Fiers has regressed to giving up the long ball again despite maintaining his great stretch prepherials.
Simply put the sample size isn’t significant enough to account for luck yet.
Thank You! I hope everyone reads this. The bullpen ERA is ranked First in August. The starters are not doing their job (according to Keuchel). It’s also hard to win games when your rotation is not stable. They’re apparently still talking to Detroit about JV; its time to hammer out a deal, move Fiers to the bullpen and get a healthy McCullers back.
Every article theres a padres fan screaming about how a team didnt trade for Hand. The asking price was something close to what the dodgers would ask for kershaw according to a rival executive. If thats true then no wounder he didnt get traded
I have not read that anywhere. In fact, I think you are making it up to try to make that guy look bad.
I read multiple articles, including 4-5 on here, that the Padres were asking for a return for Hand that was very similar to the one the Giants gave up for Will Smith (a top 50-100 prospect and 2 other good prospects) or a single top prospect. Very reasonable for a reliever as good as Hand.
lol you must not be a very good reader then. Just today someone said “the effects of teams not trading for hand are starting to show”. Many articles where it is relevant have someone talking about Hand. And if the Will Smith trade was a similar asking price somone would have pulled the trigger. You also told me the Rich Hill contract was awful so i think you are the one making stuff up
I also have read the tweet by either Olney or Law or Nightingale that the asking price was fair, so there you have it. One top 100 prospect was a realistic asking price for a player of a caliber like Hand, and I tend to believe that that was Preller was willing to settle to.
You made up that quote because it’s not found on the internet anywhere. Just as you made up “The asking price was something close to what the dodgers would ask for kershaw according to a rival executive.” No one said anything close to that.
Everyone, including multiple posts about Hand by Rosenthal, Heyman, Joel Sherman, Jon Paul Morosi, and others mentioned on this site, said the Padres were asking for a single top 100 prospect plus other lower level prospects or a single elite prospect, someone like Torres or Adames, and no one was willing to pay even a single top 100 prospect. The Astros put 6 players on a list that were untouchable according to Rosenthal.
$16 million per year over 3 years for a 37-year-old guy that will end with 16-17 starts a year is pretty stupid for most teams. For a team with an unlimited budget, they can afford to do things like that. No one else can.
Just google brad hand kershaw and you will see it. And the Astros arent the only team that could use a left handed reliever. If the price was really that low a contendee would have gave in. 1 top 100 prospect is nothing. Why would the cubs settle for Wilson who is not as good for hand and has 1 less year of control if that package was do able for hand? Makes no sense
Oh you mean this article from mlbtraderumors mlbtraderumors.com/2017/08/astros-trade-rumors-lef…
Where the author specifically said
“Desirable assets like Brad Hand, for instance, have no chance of making it to Houston via the waiver circuit.”
Gee, wonder why Hand was being commented on lol. No idea
But I mean after saying the dodgers had 4 or 5 better options than Hand when facts clearly proved you wrong and saying the dodgers were wise to get watson and cingrani we cant expect much from you in terms of contributing anything useful.
Yes, there in fact is an article that says “Dodgers would not ask for more than Padres are asking for Hand”, which, frankly is a BS. Padres have asked Verdugo for Hand (and most likely other lower prospects). If you think that is worth Kershaw, you have a problem. Jon Heyman tweeted before the deadline “Padres asking seems pretty reasonable” so there you go. Words coming straight out of executives are not trustworthy because these are used as leverage. Words coming from the writers are more credible because there is no conflict of interest.
Why could the cubs settle for Wilson? Cause they had nothing left to offer after trading nearly everyone for chapman and quintana lol…..
You’re assuming the padres would have wanted candelario…….considering they have spangenberg at 3rd for the next 3 years possibly plus have an ex cubs prospect in triple a they need to look at candelario wasn’t exactly a desirable piece.
Padres are rebuilding in case you didnt notice. They dont need to worry about what position these guys play yet. Candelario plays multiple positions anyways. If the asking price was what you guys claim it was then they would have accepted the same package as the tigers did for wilson. If that were the case hand would be a Cub right now. And bringintherelief pitcher i have no clue what you are talking about. Hand would by far be the best dodger reliever and i never said anything that has to do with that.
In fairness that was coming from what was identified as a Padres executive which if true there is no way he should still be in San Diego. More than likely the executive commented to try and save face for the organization.
See, I can’t buy this idea that all it took was a back – end guy and change. Teoscar Hernandez is in that 45-50 FV tier that puts guys at the back of the top 100 or just off of it, and they traded him for Liriano. If San Diego were actually willing to center a Hand trade around Hernandez, I have to imagine Houston would’ve done that instead of Liriano, even if it meant kicking in better secondary pieces than they sent Toronto
1. You’re right it wasn’tyou. My apoligies for the confusion. Indianadodgerfan was the person. mlbtraderumors.com/2017/08/nl-west-notes-giants-ei…
2. Just because they are rebuilding doesnt mean they should take prospects for the sake of prospects. Candelario is capable of playing 1st and 3rd to my knowledge, maybe some outfield. Those happen to be positons of strength and depth for the padres. Unless they could flip candelario in a deal for a ss they are better looking to flip hand for a ss- something they need.
At this point padres need to start filling ss as their priority.
Pitching wise you just need 5 of lamet, kelly, lockett, gore, quantril, lauer, lucchesi, morejon, espinoza, baez, allen nix, thompson, lawson, huffman to for a rotation 5 out of 15 is possible. Hell just 3 of them and sign 2 guys. Or 4 of them and sign 1. But at most you need 5 of your prospects to pan out.
2b, 3b you need 2 of spangenberg, asuaje, potts, urias, tatis jr, villanueva, pirela, cordoba long term.
OF 3 of margot renfoe dickerson jankowski gettys ona house cordero long term.
Ss is a bit murkier. Which, unless the padres can get something for hand to flip for a ss, best to look to move hand for a ss.
The reports by Rosenthal were that the Astros placed 6 prospects off limits in trade talks. That is insane if you are trying to win it all now.
Well, they might all make the Astros minor league HOF!
Coulombe is the A’s only lefty
The joys of being cheap
Add Stumpf in a Verlander trade.
Joe Sambito
I’ll do it for free!! Hee Hee! Lol!
I sure wish they’d take Holland.
Not good strategically. The Dutch Resistance was a formidable force.
A.J. Ramos? Estrada? Papelbon? Jim Johnson? Others that might come available?
Seems they are now having to deal w the consequences of cheaping-out at the trade deadline w San Diego and Baltimore. It may cost them bigly…
Cheaping out? They all but confirmed they had a deal for Britton and ownership squashed the deal.
Could’ve had Verlander and J. Wilson, but they value their prospects too much. When you have a chance to go for it in the MLB, you take it. You may never have another chance again with injuries, salaries, and free agency. Building a young team has its disadvantages, especially when all those contracts come up at the same time. You can’t pass up an opportunity to go for it. Now they are a bit stuck. Liriano and Clippard don’t move the needle enough. They can still get Verlander and Stumpf, but options have changed since the players traded have to be either cleared or not on the 40 man. The conversation would have to include the young Tucker.
Verlander isn’t going to cost anyone prospects
Yes. It’s easier to just downvote than it is to actually try and refute my comment isn’t it?
As the old saying goes, don’t tap yourself on the back, you might break your arm.
Frankly, people aren’t responding to your comment because you keep repeating the same thing post after post. I’m sure you think you have a valid argument, but you are starting to sound like the poster who continually notes that the Cubs will not make the post-season.
Fans and media have pointed out how the Tigers are not going to let JV go for nothing which is basically what you are proposing. I suggest you do some research into how the Ilitch family has run two franchises in Detroit; they don’t give away drawing cards, even with large contracts.
All the best.
That is fine. No one will trade for JV then, his contract will expire after 2019 and the Tigers still won’t have won anything since 1984.
Verlander isnt going anywhere because the Tigers expect prospects (Fisher and maybe Tucker or a starting pitcher from Houston) AND arent willing to pay enough of Verlander’s contract.
I don’t believe we want Fisher. I think Whitley, Alvarez and Nova. We will give Verlander and 20 million.
That deal would have been made already.
Please take Adam Morgan for nothing.
2 months ago I’d agree, but look lately…Morgan is cheap and settling in..
We would give them Krol and throw in a bucket of balls
With all these talks about opt outs, and I see J.P. Howell’s name, brings back memories of a opt out decision that failed (chose to opt IN for $6.25M for 2016 after brilliant 1..43 ERA in 2015, then he bombed 2016, settling for one year $3M in 2017.
That was one opt out decision that failed, but in Howell’s defense everyone expected him to opt out of that player option because he was such a beast reliever in 2015. Opt outs are interesting.
They knew they had a serious need at the deadline and they sat on their hands!!!
Good front offices like HOU aren’t stupid enough to overpay for relievers. They will likely be successful no matter what lol
The Astros are playing .429 ball in the second half and their own players called them out for their lack of action at the deadline. I think it’s clear that they blew it.
Injuries have hurt more than the trade deadline. Losing your best pitchers for months at a time is going to hurt any team. So will losing two MVP candidates at the same time. Now Gattis and McCann are both on the DL. I guess that trade deadline relief pitcher would have made all the difference in the world. Please.
They were the best team in the AL by a country mile prior to the deadline. If you don’t believe in yourself and team after that as a player you don’t deserve to be in the big leagues. In no way being disappointed at just standing pat in a position like the Astros were in should result in the dip in play.
You didn’t lose anybody as the best team in your league not making a move when clear upgrades aren’t present when almost any addition could be seen as a luxury should not be seen a blowing it.
There is being disappointed and then there is just being immature and not believing in your teammates.
Miley seems like he would be a good turnaround type when moving from struggling in the rotation to the pen.
when will MLBTR realize that Orioles organization doesn’t use logic? I’m sure they’re even looking at Miley’s option and saying it’s a no brainer to exercise it
You boys can have Josh Osich… 2 projectable high A arms and he’s yours
Derek Holland is a solid suggestion based on Astros holding on to prospects. Cheap rental who can suit specialist role or a long relief/innings eater to save arms of their starters who matter in October.
Wade LeBlanc available cheaply….