Tigers second baseman Ian Kinsler is on revocable trade waivers, per MLB Network’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter links). As we’ve emphasized with recent reports of players going on August waivers, the fact that Kinsler is on waivers at all isn’t all that noteworthy. Most players, after all, will be on revocable waivers this month.
What is noteworthy about Rosenthal’s report, though, is that it gives a timetable for when a fairly plausible August trade candidate will either be claimed or pulled back off waivers (thus removing his trade candidacy). In this case, the waiver period is up at noon CST tomorrow. Any team that is awarded the claim would then have another two days to work out a trade; if no deal is made, the Tigers could pull him back or allow him to depart without compensation.
According to Rosenthal, the Brewers still have interest in acquiring Kinsler, though he’d have to approve a trade to Milwaukee — a team that is on his partial no-trade clause. It’s not yet known if Kinsler will even make it to the Brewers on the waiver wire — every American League team and all N.L. clubs with worse records will have higher priority — nor is it known if the Brewers would definitively place a claim. In the event that Milwaukee did successfully claim him, however, the no-trade clause would add another wrinkle to the already-difficult task the two teams would face simply to agree on an exchange. (For what it’s worth, he has indicated a general willingness to accept a deal, though there were prior indications he’d only approve one if an extension could be arranged as part of the swap.)
Kinsler would represent an upgrade for Milwaukee, with Jonathan Villar and Eric Sogard failing to produce with any consistency. But it’s not entirely clear just how much the team would be willing to pay in salary and prospects. Kinsler is earning $11MM this year, around $3MM of which is still due. He’s also controllable via club option for 2018 at a reasonable $12MM. (Note: some sources have the option priced at $10MM, but the majority place it at the slightly higher rate; see, e.g., here.) There’s a hefty $5MM buyout, but that won’t likely come into play. As regards the Brewers, Kinsler’s salary would represent a fairly big chunk of change for an organization that has opened each of the past two seasons with just over $60MM on the books, though Milwaukee has plenty of spending capacity available and would surely like the idea of landing a veteran without a long-term commitment.
Of course, the ability to control a solid veteran player for a solid price on a one-year term will boost Kinsler’s appeal to many other clubs that might consider a claim. Second base hasn’t been an area of much demand, but perhaps there are a few other clubs that could consider pursuing a move. The Angels stand out as a conceivable possibility, as they could use the help at second, are still in contention, and have targeted short-term veterans in recent years as a way to remain competitive while trying not to clog future balance sheets.
Milwaukee and others will surely have their limits in valuing Kinsler. He’s already 35 years old and has managed only a .245/.324/.388 slash on the year, swatting ten home runs after a surprising 2016 campaign in which he launched 28 and carried an atypically robust .196 isolated slugging mark. But he’s easily worth his salary and looks to be an appealing asset for 2018. Despite the currently subpar batting line, Kinsler is avoiding strikeouts as well as ever and is drawing more walks than usual. A boost in his current .259 BABIP would likely bring him back to being at least a league-average hitter — indeed, he has never ended a regular season with a wRC below the league mean. And Kinsler still grades as a premium defender, making him a high-quality regular even if his batting productivity erodes somewhat.
ReverieDays
Okay.
notagain27
I would believe one of the other potential playoff teams behind the Brewers would put a claim on Kinsler before the Brewers turn came up.
woolcorp
If the Tigers chose to simply award his contract to Milwaukee, does his no-trade effect that?
If it doesn’t you could hypothetically have the Tigers award the contract to the Brewers and they turn around and trade players to Detroit for cash.
bronxbombers
Nope still needs to waive the no trade
Connorsoxfan
Also the league would likely veto a trade centered around a loophole like that even if it was legal.
Danthemilwfan
and we don’t want a guy who doesn’t want to be here
therealryan
I know the Rays aren’t going to put in a claim, but I would really like to see that. Kinsler is poised for some positive regression offensively and still a premium defender. He would look good slotted in the leadoff roll and his defense would help to solidify the Rays and give them the best up the middle defense in baseball when Kiermaier returns.
cxcx
Why wouldn’t they if it’s a good fit? If salary is an issue it’s not like they have to worry about Detroit letting him go for nothing so they could always not take him on unless Detroit paid down.
therealryan
I would try and get him. If the Rays succeed move Miller to a utility role down the stretch and then think about trading him in the offseason. However, I think the Rays believe that Miller has the ability to be a 2-3 win 2B and with 2 more cheaper arb seasons remaining the prospect cost plus salary for Kinsler isn’t worth the upgrade over spending that money elsewhere on the team. At $12 million, Kinser’s salary would be the second highest on the team, just behind Longoria. I don’t see the Rays eager to spend that on a 36 year old 2B.
gorav114
Positive Regression?
therealryan
Regressing to his recent career averages would be positive for Ian Kinsler. When you compare his batted ball data this year to his recent career numbers, it looks like offensively he is having an unlucky season, rather than an age related decline season. His HardHit %, BB%, K% and ISO are all similar or better this year, but his BaBIP is only .259 this year. From 2013-2015 he averaged a .300 BaBIP and a 106 wRC+. Much better than his current 91 wRC+. That above average bat paired with his elite defense would make him a 4+ win player.
BlueSkyLA
Regression in statistics doesn’t mean decline, it means trending towards the mean of a data set. So in baseball terms, if a player is currently performing below their mean, a regression would translate to a relative improvement.
BlueSkyLA
Destined to be claimed and pulled back.
cxcx
How has Sogard not produced with consistency, he’s having a career year..he’s been hurt I guess.
11Bravo
He’s only batted .067 since the break with a .125 obp. My golden retriever would be an upgrade at 2B over him.
bartoloshomie
Vomit. First Verlander then J Up and now Kinsler. Ugh. Stop w the waiver stuff. My heart!
Kevin McKeon
Verlander and the Astros agree to 1 year 13 million dollar deal
Upton and the A’s agree to 4 year 100 million dollar deal
Kinsler and the Brewers agree to a 1 year 12.5 million dollar deal
jdgoat
Kevin Mckeon shows he doesn’t know what he’s talking about
xabial
Aww man Jeff! The option being placed at $12MM, rather than its widely reported $10MM figure means Kinsler’s buyout doesn’t take up 50% of the option.
Darn! I wanted Kinsler to have the record for buyout that that makes up the most % of the option it’s buying out.
Jeff Todd
Ha, I too was saddened upon learning this.
xabial
On a more serious note, I was just as surprised to learn it was $12MM, as well. I get my information from Cot’s contracts, and this might be the first contract misrepresented albeit it’s such a minor detail. Other than the $0.1M bonus for making all star team, Kinsler’s reported salary for the option is $10M. baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/american-…
Borderline investigative reporting Jeff. Keep up the great work!
And the reason I like contract details so much (probably more than most) is because I’m in finance.
brewpackbuckbadg
Would Kinsler for Villar straight up be a worth while deal? Brewers get short term, higher priced and higher performing player with other Brewer prospects to replace Kinsler after his contract is up. Tigers get more years of control of a potential 2-4 WAR player at a much cheaper price. Neither team may think it is a good deal but maybe…
RegretfulTigersFan7
Kinsler for a third base prospect to be be named later.
What it seems to be Al Avila’s calling card?!
stymeedone
Villar can play 3B. Add a solid pitching prospect and it could work.
Big O
If he waves his no trade I think it would be a good fit. Dubon should be up sometime at the end of next year . A little veteran presence could help a team full of youth!!
empiresam
Don’t forget that players are often pulled back with the team compiling a list of who might be interested in an off season deal (If he’s approve].
Madbcuzbad
I believe Kinsler can only block trades to 10 mystery teams, 9 + the dodgers. My guess is these are the big market teams so he could possibly leverage an extension if indeed he was traded. He does not have a full trade clause protection.
Cougar1
If he’s gonna go anywhere it’s Milwaukee.
agentx
Looks like Kinsler cleared. Let the games begin!!
Clif
I would rather see the Brewers go after Brandon Phillips from Atlanta. From what I have heard, the Braves are looking to move him in order to free up playing time for a another player on roster. Granted the Brewers would have to go through the same wavier process as Kinsler. Phillips is hitting .285 this year, and would make a very good lead off hitter the rest of the way. He is also a free agent at the end of the year which means the Brewers owe him nothing at the end of the season. I also believe he would cost a lot less than Kinsler in terms of prospects. Plus, I don’t believe Phillips has a no trade clause like Kinsler has against the Brewers. As a Brewer fan, I really don’t want a player who doesn’t want to come to Milwaukee.
werfighting
Hay put the phillies in the mix they have Cesar and Scott coming soon but they had a lot of interest in dee Gordon
Clif
I would love the idea of Dee Gordon, but I have a feeling they would want a lot for him. I think Brandon Phillips would be the cheaper route, but if they could get Dee Gordon and not give up the farm….. I am all for it!.