Here’s the latest baseball news from the Show Me State…
- Of all the Royals’ big free agents this winter, Eric Hosmer seems to be the team’s top priority, and Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star looks at what would need to happen for the team to re-sign the star first baseman. In short, Hosmer’s market would need to be much softer than expected, which would allow the Royals to stay in the bidding — the scenario would be akin to how K.C. was able to bring back another homegrown star in Alex Gordon two years ago. Realistically, the Royals need both Hosmer to find a thin market and for him to be willing to accept a slight discount on his asking price, and “even internally, club officials acknowledge this is unlikely,” Mellinger writes.
- Should Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain and Mike Moustakas all leave in free agency, the club “would effectively be admitting a rebuild” by having to rely on internal options or lower-tier free agents to fill the holes, Mellinger notes. On the other hand, GM Dayton Moore “would never commit to a virtual tank” in the fashion of the Astros, Cubs, or White Sox. Instead, Mellinger suggests that the Royals could try to stay competitive enough in 2018 to take advantage of a weakened AL Central, such as how the Twins gained a surprise wild card berth this season.
- If the Royals are hoping for a cooler market for Hosmer, they could be helped by the fact that so many big-market teams are already set at first base, ESPN’s Buster Olney observes in his latest subscription-only column. The Red Sox and Yankees could use upgrades at first but are both looking to get under the luxury tax threshold, while the Angels would probably only be in the Hosmer mix if Justin Upton opted out of his deal. One intriguing scenario Olney floats (based on just his own speculation) is the Cardinals trading Matt Carpenter and signing Hosmer as the everyday first baseman. This move would, on paper, address the Cards’ wish to be more athletic and better defensively, though it should be noted that the Defensive Runs Saved and UZR/150 metrics have actually presented Hosmer as a below-average defender over the last two seasons.
- “Whether it’s the bullpen or the lineup, the Cardinals stated goals for 2018 are fortify and simplify,” Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes in an overview of the team’s offseason plans. The roster was often in flux last season thanks to injuries, some unexpected dropoffs in performance and some new faces earning increased playing time, so the Cardinals are planning on more lineup stability next year. There hasn’t been any consideration given to a rebuild, as the Cards feel they have both the money and farm system depth to stay competitive while remaking the roster at the same time.
- Clubhouse issues and a lack of fundamentals plagued the Cards all season, as Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch argues that the team needs to re-commit to its Cardinal Way mantra. Some players were annoyed by a “lackadaisical atmosphere” inside the clubhouse throughout the season, though a players-only dinner arranged by Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright in early August served as a good wakeup call for the team.
I’m not quite sure what the Royals are thinking here: “We missed the postseason and three of our best players are free agents. If we keep one of them, we should be able to turn this thing around.”
Choosing Hosmer over Moose baffles me as well.. Hosmer always seems to follow up a good year of hitting with a bad one.. The Royals need to rebuild.. They have a few pieces in the minors but not much and losing your 3 best players is not the best way to move into contention.. I think Moore believes that if Ventura was a part of the team this year they would have made the playoffs.. It really is too bad that kid didn’t get the chance to mature and become the TOR pitcher he had the talent to be..
Age… That’s why Hoz is the most desirable and will get the biggest contract out of the 5 of the FA’s and it’s just that simple.
The biggest contract and the longest contract, sadly for Moose and Cain, go hand in hand. Hoz will get the most in the long run, but I think he’ll only get 4/70, whereas Moose will most likely command 2/40, and Cain 3/50.
CoffinNail, I think that your statement may be more perception than reality. The last 3 seasons look like this: 2015- .297/.363/.822 with 18 HR and 93 RBI; 2016- .266/.328/.761 with 25 HR and 104 RBI; 2017- .318/.385/.882 with 25 HR and 94 RBI. A SLIGHT dip in production maybe but that’s certainly not a bad year, and I’d need to dig deeper to see how the hitters around him performed as well, because that could certainly factor in. I really hope to see Hosmer in a Cardinal uniform next year. He’s been one of my fav players in baseball for the last 3-4 years. The guy just seems to win, and has a great attitude. And if you can protect
Him with a guy like Donaldson or Stanton (My Gosh I hope so lol) there’s a good chance he increases his career numbers.
Agreed! They should replenish the pantry and take advantage of a pretty damn good FA crop including KC native Logan Morrison who I doubt will be given a QO from Tampa or at the same time, many players won’t have compensation attached including Yonder Alonso which depending on the contract, could be a plausible replacement at 1B IMO…
Missouri Notes? Haha GG lol. More like Misery Notes.
So the Royals might be forced into a rebuild, but they will not do things like forgoing investing money in minor FA improvements they don’t really need, trading valuable assets for prospect packages and accepting they are going to lose for better draft position – instead they will spend money on stopgaps to shoot for around 500 and pray they can somehow sneak into a playoff series they will have no business in?
Hello wasted decade of mediocrity
Agreed. The team just won a World Series and made a valiant attempt to make the postseason this year.
Now, they want to be the Phillies.
They should just sell everything, be be bad for two years, and then compete.
Why would the fan base want a .500 team?
Salvy and Duffy are the only two pieces of any value on the trade market left, and Kansas City would burn Dayton Moore in effigy if he traded either of them, especially Salvy.
The lineup I think will actually be ok. Everyone points to KC doesn’t have any prospects left in the minors, but that’s a little misleading because several of the guys that are going to be starting next year don’t qualify as prospects but were well regarded when they did (Cuthbert, Mondesi, Bonifacio) add them to Whit Merrifield and Salvy and crossing our fingers that some combination of Gordo, Moss and Soler can be not atrocious.
Offense will be passable. It’s the pitching staff that scares the hell out of me.
With CF in flux, I see a potential reunion with J. Dyson who could platoon nicely with Billy Burns as a lefty/rightie tandem with speed to burn!
Cuthbert and Bonifacio were regarded more as role players, not cornerstone starters, while Mondesi (much like Dozier, and Bubba before them) has been an enigma his entire career; having raw abilities if he were to develop but continually failing to develop said skills, especially in a consistent manor. (This year at AAA he was inconsistent once again, K’d 25% again, walked merely 5% again, and looks semi impressive mostly because of a .375 BAbip – that .257/.271/.421 line away from Omaha sure doesn’t look good though)
So that leaves the team with a fair-hitting/fair-fielding 2B, a (so far career long) frustration at SS, good-hitting merely for the position Catcher and a bunch of role-players or prayers in hopes of them reaching 500
And while the Angels cant make this strategy work around a core of Trout, Simmons, Calhoun, Maldonado and Pujols plus stopgaps, the Royals think they can around Mondesi, Merrifield, Perez and Gordon plus stopgaps?
I said “passable”, I didn’t say the second coming or Hos/Moose/Cain.
Also, I think it’s pretty hard to say “career long frustration” on Mondesi considering he’s what, 21? He’s been lost in the majors, for sure, but he changed his swing when he got to AAA this year to hit more line drives instead of being a bunt-first guy, which will tend to increase your BABIP. Not saying he’s the second coming of Derek Jeter or anything, but I for one am excited to see what he can do with a full-time gig and nobody looking over his shoulder next season. Can’t argue with the K/BB, but that’s true for the entire organization and I’ve given up on caring about it.
We’re going to be bad next year, no way around that, but we’ve got as many as 6 picks in the first two rounds next year so I’m hoping we can be good again while Salvy can still stand up.
also Hunter Dozier had an awesome year in ’16. This year was lost due to injury (bad oblique strain then fouled a ball of his shin and broke his leg).
Anyway my point was pitching is a bigger question mark than hitting, both next year and moving forward.
Everyone says Dayton can’t draft pitchers, but he can. We just traded them all away (not complaining, with a couple of minor exceptions I would make every one of those trades again).
I don’t think so, although it makes sense. I think we may re-sign Melky and then you’ll see Gordo slide over to CF (not saying it SHOULD happen) or else Paulo Orlando will be our Cf.
I also think Cain is the most likely to re-sign simply because it’d be a short commitment due to his age and injury history.
Mondesi is a career long frustration in that the scouting report on him his first year (2012) and going into this year (2017) was the same, with the same exact questions every year about every aspect of his game.
He has the raw talent to be more, but he has been pretty much the same exact guy the entire time
Ya, that’s true, but he’s still very young. Not ready to write him off just yet.
At this point if Bubba Starling and Kyle Zimmer ever put on a Royals uniform, they’ll be exceeding my expectations for them going forward. Raul is a long way from that point.
Because of the wildcard format which presents the opportunity at extra revenue via postseason play, not to mention multiple (at least 2) 83 win teams have won the WS in recent memory.
Uhm, what 83 win Wild Card teams do you have winning the WS?
I see these as the Wild Card World Series victory clubs
99-63 – 2002 Angels
98-64 – 2004 Red Sox
92-70 – 1997 Marlins
91-71 – 2003 Marlins
90-72 – 2011 Cardinals
88-74 – 2014 Giants
So none of them
Otherwise, the only Championship team with fewer than 85 wins in our lifetimes was the 2006 Cardinals, led by Pujols, Edmonds, Rolen, Carpenter, Isringhausen, etc
And solely because 1 nearly 500 Division Champ team with a few of the best players that year managed to win the WS over the nearly 25 years of Wild card baseball, that means doing everything you can to try to take a team without talent to 500 is the smart way to go?
The 2006 Cardinals were better than record considering they left Mulder and Marquis off their postseason roster – two pitchers that lost many games that year.
Whoa champ! You think you have it all figured out but you’re a presumptuous tool!
I said two distinctly different things chump, er, champ which is the wildcard keeps average teams competitive!
Point #2 there chimp, er, I mean champ, at least two 83 win teams have won the WS in recent memory and that’s just 2 wins above .500 for the season so you can cool your jets and take the presumption back where it came from…
who are the 83 win teams to have won the world series recently? I think the 2006 Cards did it, but who is the other one?
Teams to win WS with less than 90 wins since WC adopted:
– 87-74 Yankees of 2000 (after winning 98 in 1999)
– 83-78 Cardinals of 2006 (after winning 100 in 2005)
– 88-74 Giants of 2014 (their 3rd title in 6 years)
So I am not sure why you are doubling down on this fictional “at least two 83 win teams have won the WS in recent memory” claim – it’s just wrong. Only 1 such team has since 1919, and it was a team that won 100 the year prior
Then, the 2017 Royals had a Pythagorean of 72-90 and are losing more than 10 WAR in Hosmer, Moose, Cain and Escobar alone …that leaves a roughly 60 win team standing
Now if you think a roughly 60 win team is going to be able to be “average” and still believe the Cardinals of 2006 somehow means teams often win the WS with 83 wins, well…
@atlbraves2010
Only two 83 win teams in history have won the WS; the 2006 Cards and the 1889 Giants
…so apparently 1889 is “recent memory” to him
and in 1889 they only played 126 games…giving them a winning percentage of .659
Because every .500 team in the AL got in the dance this year. It seldom that the team with the best record that wins the WS. Why would they want to suck? Why would you want to watch a team that sucks?
Oh. So moving forward, as long as no other non-division winning teams in the AL are above 500, the Royals might have a chance if they are able to claw their way up to the 500 mark?
Sounds a logical goal
Jesus you’re hyper literal, the point was that the second wild card has significantly lowered the bar for making the playoffs, and once the playoffs start anything can happen in baseball.
You don’t have to be the ’27 Yankees to get to the postseason, and as bad as the Royals will be they will probably be the third worst team in h Central which means they get to play the 100-loss Tigers and White Sox 20 times each.
I’m being hit with extreme homerism with little to no regard to logic here, what do you expect?
Look, the team was 80-82 with Hosmer, Moose, Cain, Escobar, etc – and they are leaving
So the club is going to have to spend their resources (money at minimum, and possibly prospects) to try and claw their way up to 500 …just in hopes no other non-division winning clubs similarly manage 500 so they can sneak into a one game playoff chance? Happened once, so…
That is insanity!
If you are the Angels and you have the hands down best player in the game, plus the former best player, both locked in longterm …okay. maybe I can understand trying this. But when you are a small market club like the Royals and have no true stand-out talent on the roster or near-guaranteed in the minors, what in the world is the point?
Everyone everywhere knows they need to rebuild, but stubbornly they are going to refuse to do so, at the expense of their future, just in hopes that they catch lightening in a bottle because…?
Again, just straight insanity that Royals fans are seeming not only excited about this refusal to rebuild a bad team, but even somehow are talking themselves into believing this could be their formula for winning!
Onley sucks…. the Red Sox were under the tax this year and reset so going over next year isnt a big problem but Hosmer is not a good fit for big long term money. Sox have Hanley back unfortunately and Sam Travis further out from his ACL tear. Yes they need a Moreland replacement but not 15-18 mil for 5 years or more
They need a leader and a new manager. Pedroia is not a leader of men.
Exactly…leaders don’t whine about things during post game interviews.
Boston wasn’t under the luxury tax, and with 60 million of arbs coming, they won’t be for a long time.
With Mondesi in place, just out of curiosity, what kind of return could Whit Merrifield yield especially from a team like the Braves who possibly need a 2B & with Whit being from that region, he could potentially be a regional star and with him being cost controlled, I would imagine KC could get a really good return…
Thoughts, pro or con?
Very little.
Not enough return to warrant giving up his five years of control.
LA would have to make an offer for Merrifield if he was on the trade block. Dudes a stud and cost controlled, let’s hope KC sells.
The Cubs did not tank. They had already sunk to the bottom with an old, washed-up, overpaid team when Theo took over.
The Cubs absolutely tanked. Theo had a 5 year plan from the outset. They traded off every valuable veteran they had and stockpiled prospects. Finished last place multiple years allowing them to consistently pick at top of draft. When those prospects became stars they won the World Series. That by definition is tanking.
The only veteran they traded off who actually had real value was Samardzija and that wasn’t until late in the rebuild. They just didnt have a very good team to start with. Theo just worked miracles by getting Rizzo, Arrieta, Russell ect in trades. There were some bad moves too like trading away DJ Lemahieu and vizcaiano but overall they didnt tank.
That’s completely laughable to say Cubs didn’t tank. Theo himself told Cubs fans to be patient and wait about 5 years. They did not field a team that had any chance or hopes of winning until 2015. That’s tanking, having zero hopes of winning for few years and drafting at top. Also traded Castro, hammell, dempster, Soriano and others. You can argue it was successful, it worked, etc. but everyone outside of blinded Cubs fans know they tanked
They didnt trade Castro until they were already a playoff team. The Cubs just didnt have a good team. It can be seen as tanking but at the same time it was reality they were mediocre. They had no farm system and an old team when theo took over so how can you expect them to compete any time soon when theo came.
TY, Walker. An old team with no prospects were the Cubs for decades.
Yes indeed..every former GM on tv,writer,talent evaluator,and contributor has stated this. Just don’t state this to a Cubs fan,or for that fact question the Heyward signing…
I’m anything but a Cubs fan, but Theo was hired after the 2011 season
2010 – 75-87, 5th in NL Central
2011 – 71-91, 5th in NL Central
2012 – 61-101, 5th in NL Central
2013 – 66-96, 5th in NL Central
2014 – 73-89, 5th in NL Central
And I believe that is what he is talking about – the team didn’t really change all that much record-wise, and it’s impossible to tank something that is already in the tank (literally the worst season they have had was the very year he took over, a mark they were headed for even if he did nothing)
Tanking by definition is “not trying to improve your on field product to win”. Trading Major League players for minor leaguers is not improving your current clubs performance.
TY, Darkstar. And that’s how it was since I’ve been a Cubs fan starting in ’73. Before Theo took over, only 11 out of 39 seasons were over .500 – none of them consecutively until 2004. The only team that was expected to win was 2008 and they were swept out of the DS.
Heyward may be overpaid, but he still has considerable value with the glove. Would you trade Ellsbury for him?
You are probably the only Cubs fan I’ve ever seen admit he’s overpaid…and Hell yea. There were a couple Yankees fans trying to justify Ellsbury the other day..saying he’s reliable in CF and it wouldn’t be that hard to trade him.
That by definition is rebuilding.
You don’t finish last place for 5 years in a row if you aren’t tanking. No matter how bad the team is to start with
Except they didn’t finish in last place 5 years in a row. They finished in last place in 2013 and 2014, and that is it.
And after all those last place finishes they called Theo a genius.
They finished in last place exactly twice during the entire 2009-2014 “rebuild”.
Absolutely!
Of course they tanked! They were clearly not trying to put a good product on the field until 2015
One would think that the example of Alex Gordon would give KC pause?
For crying out loud, if it’s true that clubhouse issues still exist and there is a lack of fundamentals, why is Mike Matheny still there??
Said it before. I’ll say it again. Royals will draft 1st overall in 2019.
If the Royals try to re-sign Hosmer, it would likely be heavily backloaded. Their measly $20M/year television contract will expire in 2019. They’ll likely see $50-$70M on their next contract. They may want to stay competitive just for that. It was one of the reasons Dayton Moore gave on why they didn’t sell this season.
So what the Cubs did was your run of the mill mid/small market rebuild. OK.
Trade Carpenter to sign Hosmer? LOL.
LOL.
Agreed. Lol. Olney is an idiot. ESPN is pathetic.
ESPN has MNF…
Yeah management is bright enough to trade matt carp. Instead they will continue running his arse out there and batting him leadoff because the poor baby can’t hit anywhere else in the lineup. Of course he is as slow as Molina running the bases so batting him leadoff leads to a ton of ks, him trying to stretch a single into a double and getting thrown out, or getting on base just to have someone hit into a double play because carp can’t run. In other words they prefer to screw up the entire offense catering to the fact that carp can’t hit in a more appropriate spot for his lack of talent. Hosmer isn’t my first choice to join the cards but my God he would be a big upgrade over carp. But many card fans will drink the kool aid and think he is so great. How many outs did he run into on the bases? How many worst plays of the day was he involved in especially early in the year? Remember all of those highlights roadting him for being dumb on the bases? Yep he tore it up though. Man what did he hit .260s maybe? Lots of ks, lots of dps, errors, a whopping 23 or so home runs…yeah he is not the least but replaceable lol perhaps you blind loyalist should get a job for the cardssince Mo loves yes men/women like you.
If you are going to complain about a player based on stats, at least get the stats right. As for your complaints, the “lack of talent” lead off hitter had 2.9 war on an injury season that still saw 622 plate appearances. Of which, the strikeout rate was about 20% (league average is 20%) with a walk rate of 17.5% (which is well above the league average of about 8%). He also had an ops of .835 (above average). As for the 23 hrs, that tied him for 84th in mlb this season, with Daniel Murphy, Robinson Cano, Albert Pujols, Martin Gonzales, Jose Bautista, Carlos Santana, Javier Baez, etc. So no, 23 HRs is not a small feat (albeit nothing phenomenal). But you know, keep spouting out nonsense about a team because you “aren’t drinking the koolaid”.
Cubs were 5th place in nl central 5 years in a row. Last time I checked that’s last place. Tell me which of those years did they try and improve the big league squad? Which years did fans, management or ownership expect them to compete for playoffs? None because they were tanking and waiting for their big moment. Theo knew it, players knew it, fans knew it. Now that their time has come fans are trying to deny they tanked. Laughable. When the core starts to break up due to age, injuries, free agency, etc. we’ll see if they just keep on competing for top or if they go back to tanking and going for it again. My guess is the latter. Especially now that their minors are depleted and their drafting at the bottom end instead of top
They tanked and now Theo is labeled a genius.
“Cubs were 5th place in nl central 5 years in a row.”
Two of them were before Theo was hired, 1 was the season he was hired, 2 were after
No one is denying they were in the tank – but they were also in the tank prior to Theo being hired, and that cant be denied. That is all that was said, and why people are trying to deny that is rather puzzling.
Actually, the Astros were in 6th places in 2011 and 2012. Now that’s what I call tanking with a $13 million payroll. My guess is the former as the Red Sox did pretty well drafting at the bottom of the rounds under Theo. Cubs will spend up to the luxury tax threshold unlike the Cardinals who can certainly afford it but won’t.
Congrats, they were second to last, not last place. They still tanked. Look, enjoy your Cubs success absolutely. But they tanked to get there. Your team will be good for next few years, no doubt. But to be so sure they will have continued sustainable success over the long haul, say 20 years or more without tanking is delusional. We’ll see
carpenter is way overvalued by st louis. he will be hard to get anything in return. me, i would give him away.
It’s a good thing you have no say in the matter, for our sake. His contract has huge surplus value.
Carp sucks. Jesus he can’t run and he is an idiot on the base paths. He is below average defensively. He can only hit when he leadsoff which is the worst spot to have him in the lineup. Yet the cards are forced to screw up their offense by batting him first. Carp would get a couple of ok prospects and that’s it. Keep thinking that he is so amazing, but other teams are not so enamored by guys that k a lot, hit into or run into a ton of double plays, bat less than .270, and commit a bunch of errors. Especially if that guy is as slow as Molina and has to hit first because anywhere else in the lineup he pouts and hits .230 at best.
Matt Carpenter hits into a ton of double plays? The guy hit into 5 double plays last year in 622 PAs. That’s insanely low. That’s seriously like historically low. In 2014 Carpenter hit into three double plays in 709 plate appearances. The guy actually has an amazing ability to not hit into double plays.. And the stats are pretty easy to find. In his career he’s hit into 31 double plays in 3700 plate appearances. That’s historically low.
Why in the world would the Angels be in on Hosmer? Moose, sure with Escobar leaving but the Angels have Cron (who just needs to be the full time 1B) and Valbuena as a backup. Plus top prospect Thaiss is 1B.
LoL Onley said the Yanks could use an upgrade at 1st base? Cashman might and yankeeverse might be a little surprised to hear that considering Bird is already penciled in and is looking good now he is healthy. Plus they have Austin/Cooper and headley backups among others. Given headley’s season, the Yank would be hard pressed to find a better option at cost.