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In what most expected to be another transitional season, the Brewers spent much of the year in contention for the NL Central title and finished just shy of an NL Wild Card berth. With an 86-76 record under their belts and a promising core of controllable players, the Brewers will no longer enter the offseason with a “rebuilding” label and will instead likely add pieces with an eye toward winning in 2018 and beyond.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Ryan Braun, OF: $57MM through 2020 (includes buyout of 2021 option)
- Eric Thames, 1B/OF: $12MM through 2019 (includes buyout of 2020 option)
Arbitration-Eligible Players (Service time in parenthesis; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Jared Hughes (5.162) – $2.2MM projected salary
- Carlos Torres (5.114) – $3.3MM
- Jeremy Jeffress (4.104) – $2.6MM
- Stephen Vogt (4.084) – $3.9MM
- Chase Anderson (3.146) – $5.4MM
- Jonathan Villar (3.113) – $3.0MM
- Jimmy Nelson (3.107) – $4.7MM
- Hernan Perez (3.079) – $2.2MM
- Corey Knebel (2.151) – $4.1MM
- Non-tender candidates: Torres, Jeffress, Vogt
Free Agents
[Milwaukee Brewers Depth Chart | Milwaukee Brewers Payroll Outlook]
General manager David Stearns and his staff caught some flak from Brewers fans this summer for not acting more aggressively to add pieces to a surprising contender. While flipping prospects Ryan Cordell and Eric Hanhold to add a pair of solid veteran rentals (Swarzak and Walker) definitely strengthened the roster, the division-rival Cubs went for broke and shelled out multiple top prospects for Jose Quintana, Justin Wilson and Alex Avila. It’s possible that had the Brewers splurged in similar fashion, adding Quintana or Sonny Gray, that they could’ve emerged as the NL Central champs, but Stearns & Co. steadfastly refused to part with top-echelon prospects — most notably center field prospect Lewis Brinson. Now, they’ll spend the offseason looking for long-term help while holding onto the luxury of plugging Brinson and other top prospects into the lineup in the near future.
Starting on the position-player side of the equation, the Brewers made several then-unheralded moves in the 2016-17 offseason that now look to have helped form a solid nucleus. Manny Pina enjoyed a breakout behind the plate and should at the very least be in an even timeshare with Stephen Vogt (or another veteran backstop should Vogt be non-tendered). Eric Thames cooled after a Cinderella start to his comeback season in MLB, but his overall numbers were strong. Jesus Aguilar, a waiver claim out of the Indians organization last winter, gives Thames an affordable platoon partner. Travis Shaw, meanwhile, was deemed expendable by the Red Sox with Rafael Devers on the horizon and instead broke out as one of the NL’s best third basemen after the Brewers acquired him in a December trade.
Top prospect Orlando Arcia showed quite well at shortstop as the season wore on, and the Brewers will return Braun and Domingo Santana as corner outfield options with plenty of pop. (Thames, too, can play some corner outfield.) Keon Broxton saw the bulk of the time in center field in 2017 and could be reinstalled there to open the 2018 season if the Brewers want to play some service time games with Brinson. But center field should go to Brinson by midseason, assuming good health, so it’s possible that the Brewers will look to shop Broxton this summer. His 37 percent strikeout clip is an eyesore, but Broxton has plenty of speed and power, and he handles center field well enough. Brett Phillips gives the Brew Crew another option in center, should they ultimately move Broxton, or he could simply spell Braun, Broxton and Santana in a semi-regular role.
The biggest question mark for the Brewers, then, is at second base. Jonathan Villar had a breakout 2016 season, but the Brewers likely feel as though they dodged a bullet when Villar reportedly rejected a contract extension last offseason. The 26-year-old’s strikeout woes returned stronger than ever in 2017, and he hit just .241/.293/.372 in 436 PAs. Veteran Eric Sogard saw plenty of action at second base as Villar lost playing time, and Walker stepped in and hit well there following his acquisition. With both Walker and Sogard set to hit the open market, the Brewers will need to decide whether they can once again trust Villar or if external reinforcements are needed.
Re-signing Sogard to an affordable one-year deal could provide some insurance, but the Brewers must now also think more like a contender. If there’s an obvious hole to fill, they’ll likely covet more certainty. Milwaukee had interest in Ian Kinsler before the non-waiver deadline, and he’s all but certain to be traded by the Tigers this winter. Re-signing Walker would be more expensive than retaining Sogard, though he’d bring more reliable production. Other free-agent options are fairly thin, though Howie Kendrick and Eduardo Nunez could stabilize the spot. The trade front is more interesting, where Philadelphia’s Cesar Hernandez and Miami’s Dee Gordon will both be available. Gordon is owed $38MM over the next three seasons, but the Brewers can afford to take on some significant financial commitments this winter.
It’s also worth mentioning that Braun’s name figures to once again surface in trade rumors at least occasionally this offseason. However, he’s coming off his worst season since 2014 and has full veto power over any trades (to say nothing of the $57MM he’s still owed through 2020). A deal doesn’t seem particularly likely.
On the pitching front, things are far less clear for the Brewers. Emergent ace Jimmy Nelson will miss a yet-unreported amount of time in 2018 following shoulder surgery. That leaves Chase Anderson and Zach Davies as the two locks for rotation spots. Brent Suter performed well in 14 starts, but he’s averaged just 124 1/3 innings across the past three seasons. Relying on him for 170+ frames would be difficult, but he’ll certainly be in next year’s rotation mix. Righty Brandon Woodruff showed flashes of potential but didn’t cement himself, while Junior Guerra posted terrible numbers in his followup to his out-of-the-blue rookie success at age 31. Touted prospect Josh Hader shined in the bullpen, but the lefty will likely get a look as a starter next year.
The Brewers look as though they’ll need to add at least one established starter, and making a second, smaller-scale addition wouldn’t be unwise. One glance at the “guaranteed contracts” section above is evidence that they could afford to spend as aggressively as they wish this offseason, though the team’s lower payroll ceiling creates less margin for error when shelling out cash to a Jake Arrieta or Yu Darvish. Second-tier names like Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn seem much more plausible, though their last foray into that price range (Garza) didn’t pan out.
Alternatively, the Brewers have an exceptionally deep farm — deep enough that they can acquire both one-year rentals and more controllable options. Given the Brewers’ questionable on-paper rotation, relatively blank payroll slate and wealth of prospects, there are literally dozens of scenarios on which to potentially speculate. Suffice it to say — they’ll be connected to a plethora of arms this winter.
The Milwaukee bullpen brings a bit more clarity. Corey Knebel broke out as one of the game’s most dominant relievers, posting baseball’s fourth-highest strikeout percentage and second-highest K/9 rate in 2017. His walk rate is still troublesome, but Knebel functioned as a genuinely elite bullpen weapon in his record-setting 2017 season (most consecutive relief appearances with at least one strikeout). If Hader isn’t in the rotation, he’ll be back in the bullpen, pairing with Knebel to create a formidable duo. Jacob Barnes and Jared Hughes should return as additional right-handed options. Jeffress is a fan favorite in Milwaukee and showed improvement after returning in a July 31 trade, but his overall output makes less certain to be brought back. I’d still expect him to be tendered, though perhaps at a lower rate than the projected $2.6MM sum, as our algorithm doesn’t factor in context such as Jeffress’ off-the-field issues.
Swarzak was terrific after being acquired from the White Sox, so a potential reunion with him is something the Brewers will surely explore. Milwaukee also needs to add at least one left-handed reliever — if not two, depending on what happens with Hader. The Brewers were without a southpaw reliever for much of the year and certainly would prefer to have greater matchup flexibility in 2018 and beyond. Tyler Webb is one intriguing internal option, and the free-agent market bears names such as Jake McGee, Brian Duensing and Tony Watson. As ever, the trade market will be rife with options in this department, though Brad Hand stands out as the likeliest name to be bandied about on the rumor mill this winter.
An oft-overlooked component of the offseason among fans is the possibility of extending core pieces. While many focus on what pieces can be added to a contending core (or shipped off of a rebuilding roster), the Brewers are in a strong position to obtain some cost certainty and perhaps some additional club control over long-term cornerstones. After trying to do with Villar last winter, they’ll likely try once again with other targets as Spring Training nears in 2018. Arcia, Shaw and Davies all make sense as candidates for a long-term pact. Anderson does as well, to a lesser extent. He’s already controlled through his age-32 season, but the club could try to buy out his arbitration years in one fell swoop and possibly tack on a club option over his age-33 season in exchange for the up-front payday. As a late bloomer, he could be more amenable to that type deal than some younger arms would be.
The Brewers enter the 2017-18 offseason with a sizable portion of a contending club already in place, though they’ll still need to make some adjustments — most notably at second base and on the pitching staff. Their unexpected status as contenders in 2017 has undoubtedly accelerated their timeline to contention, though, and their deep stash of prospects and pristine long-term payroll ledger should give Stearns and his charges plenty of opportunities to creatively supplement a roster that roster that looks infinitely better than it did one year ago at this time.
Steve,
Does Garza have an option? I thought it was reported that he met some appearances/innings pitched levels that cancelled it out. I think local Milwaukee news reported it during the last week of the season.
He does not. I missed the report on his lack of an option while I was on a brief vacation. That’s a mistake from me — as was grabbing their Pythagorean W-L instead of their actual W-L, which differed by one win. Both have been corrected.
My apologies on the confusion.
No worries. None of us are perfect. Glad I could help.
Josh Hader is going to be a really good starting pitcher
Matt Garza doesn’t have an option. He didn’t meet the qualifications for it. He’s a free agent.
I would love to see the Brewers trade for Hand and make a push to sign one of Darvish, Arrieta, or Cobb
Dee Gordon would be a nice fit
Yup. Wouldn’t have to give up big names since we have the money.
Dee Gordon steals 100 bases in Milwaukee.
So… cheese is going to help him take a walk occasionally?
The player that lead the league in steals three of the last four years goes to the team that lead the league in steals, whose top basestealer had 23. If you can’t see a major jump from the 60 he had this past season, you’re either blind or just plain stupid.
Sometimes a steal attempt can take the bat out of the hands of hitter since they have to take a pitch. Easy solution : Get Dee Gordon and bat Villar or Broxton 2nd. Taking the bat out of their hands might be a good thing, LOL!
They don’t have to take the pitch. Hit and runs.
Hand and knebel would be devestatingly good, plus hader if they want to keep him in the bullpen for another year.
Cesar Hernandez is a perfect fit for the Brewers. Klentak needs to come away with a couple of high ceiling prospects for Hernandez..
for one of the first times, I’ll agree with you. I don’t know about multiple high ceiling guys, but I think at least one quality prospect + maybe another one who’s stock has slipped, perhaps.
Hernandez for Ortiz + Bickford?
My bad. I meant to write: “multiple high ceiling A-ball prospects””
I had written that previously and forgot to include the level this time.
I would gladly take Keston Hiura straight up for Cesar.
No way Stearns is ready to part with Hiura. Word is he’s one of the best pure hitters in the minors and Hernandez/Gordon/whoever can be had for other pieces that are less of a sure thing.
Because he is that good or because he has a lot of control left? Wh not just resign sogard who was better and cheaper?
What happened to Hernan Perez? After showing great versatility, a decent bat and a knack for stealing basis, he has become less than an after-thought. Is he such a poor player that he he merits no consideration?
Hes a pretty below average bat overall. His BB% was the 14th lowest among 216 hitters with 400 PA’s. He didn’t run as much this year either. Hes a good depth piece, or a fringe starter for a bad team, but the Brewers are going to want to win next year
Perez will be back in his super-utility role.
I’m going to say it but would love to see the Brewers bring back Lucroy to share with Pina. My outfield should be definitely Phillips, Brinson, Santana,Perez, and Braun. Let him start playing some first. Give Wang a chance at LHOOP with Suter. Bring Swarzak and Jefferies back. Yes we got money to spend but don’t spend unless we have to . Start locking up core people. Think we have a lot of minor leaguers that can play in the majors let’s keep them for us instead
We never had Gregg Jefferies. Besides. he’s like 50 and hasn’t played since 2000.
Ok my bad how is this Jefferess lol you knew what I meant. Even great minds like me can have a fault
Lol, I know. Just messin, not trolling
it’s all good
Shaw coming back to Boston. You know where you heard it first.
In a trade? Sure how about Tyler Thornburg and Rafael Devers for him?
Dee Gordon would be perfect. Speed, hitting and defense. A true leadoff that we lack as well. If we sign a starter like arieta I’ll be pissed. Nelson will be back a few months in, Davies is great, Anderson is great, woodruff is a really good young prospect and hader may be the best pitcher in the league in a few years. That doesn’t include Burnes who looks dominant and Ortiz who was on a pitch count this year but still had 4 5 inning no hitters. They are both aaa bound and if hader proved anything, keeping an ace in Colorado to lose confidence is silly. Stearns is a genius and he realizes that additions through trade in the offseason is how you get better. Don’t sell the farm at the deadline when veteran pitchers are being thrown away for nothing in the offseason trade market to trim payroll.
Veterans were also being given away for nothing at the deadline though like Upton and Martinez
Gordon, Cobb, Watson, Swarzak, Playoffs.
I’m liking the Dee Gordon idea, but I still feel the most pressing need is another starting pitcher.
With what David has done so far I feel confident in the future moves he makes. I don’t think Brinson starts in the majors next season unless Braun or Broxton gets traded. Philips has shown he belongs but i need to see more from Brinson.
Brinson will make Broxton look like a contact hitter. My personal favorite is Mauricio Dubon who could make the jump and provide .280/340/400 while providing good defense and versatility at the league minimum.
Think Dubon has a chance and a lot of upside, I agree give him a chance and he could have a better yr then Dee Dee
“Brinson will make Broxton look like a contact hitter.”
We have a nominee for most idiotic post of the year!
Because he is that good or because he has a lot of control left? Wh not just resign sogard who was better and cheaper?
No I think he will be that good and comparing what you would be paying both players. Not to mention resign Sogard and if not Nate Orf I think has done enough to warrant being looked at
Would be interesting to see the Brewers bring CC Sabathia back as a veteran rotation piece.
CC would be like the Verlander on the Astro lineup.
I know Villar was bad last year, but his career OPS is higher than Gordon’s, only slightly below C. Hernandez’s, and can be kept for what will probably be a pretty paltry arby sum thanks to being terrible last season. I would rather concentrate my resources on getting a top of the rotation starter and probably 2 more mid level ones with Nelson to miss early 2017, then fill out the bullpen as best you can.
I hear Joe Panik might be available, lord knows the Giants could start hording lottery ticket outfielders like Broxton.
It’s interesting to look back at this article. We’ve signed Sogard on a 1 year deal. Chase Anderson, yep he nailed that one too. It will be interesting to see what else comes to fruition.