The MLB Trade Rumors writing staff has completed our annual winter previews for all 30 teams. Given the unusually quiet nature of this offseason so far, every team still has much to address on their winter to-do lists even though we’re already in December. Click the links for a full analysis of what your favorite team has in store before Opening Day…
AL East
AL Central
AL West
NL East
NL Central
NL West
MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.
Following a World Series loss to the Houston Astros, the Dodgers will enter the 2018 season with the majority of their core intact. The NL West division competition won’t figure to get any easier, however, and the organization’s payroll obligations already exceed the luxury tax threshold, which will make it more complicated to patch holes through free agency. The good news is that they enter the winter with wealth in another area … their deep farm system.
Guaranteed Contracts
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
Other Financial Obligations
Free Agents
[Los Angeles Dodgers Depth Chart | Los Angeles Dodgers Payroll Outlook]
At the kickoff of last year’s offseason, reports surfaced that the Dodgers were under pressure from MLB to cut payroll, though CEO Stan Kasten insisted that it wasn’t a mandate. While there hasn’t been word of any similar pressure this winter, Los Angeles already has over $207MM in guaranteed commitments for 2018 before so much as even inquiring on any free agents. Forty million of those dollars are owed to a combination of Adrian Gonzalez, Scott Kazmir and a group of players who are no longer on the roster. While it’s probably not safe to expect the Dodgers to be stingy, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see them shy away from long-term, high-risk contracts, especially with some notable extension candidates making up the core of the MLB roster and another wave of talent budding in the upper minors.
That minor-league system includes six players in MLB Pipeline’s top 100, four of whom are either at the Double-A or Triple-A level. Their top two prospects, Walker Buehler and Alex Verdugo, could help at the major league level early in 2018. With that kind of farm system, it’s possible we could see the Dodgers swing a major trade. I already noted that they’d be an ideal fit in a hypothetical Marcell Ozuna trade with the Miami Marlins, and indeed it seems like they’re in play for Giancarlo Stanton to an extent as well (though certainly his contract is larger than anything it would take to sign any of this year’s free agents). On paper, it seems like Verdugo in particular would make the most sense as a trade chip, depending upon how the club views a deep set of outfielders, though it remains to be seen whether the Dodgers have any real interest in dealing him.
Speaking of Stanton, the Dodgers appear to be one of the best fits for his services. Not only are they one of the few teams with both the prospects and financial muscle to lure the NL MVP from Miami, but they may have an added advantage considering Stanton is an L.A. native. In fact, recent reports indicate that he’d approve a trade to the Dodgers; if he truly wants to land there, and the team is at least willing to offer enough to force the Marlins’ hand, then this could be a match. But it’s not presently clear just how much interest the Dodgers have and whether Stanton would push hard to go to one specific team.
The possibility of adding a big bat ties into a complicated picture on the position-player side. It seems probable that Gonzalez will take at least some of the time at first base to open the season, so as things stand currently, the Dodgers would enter 2018 with some combination of Chris Taylor, Cody Bellinger, Yasiel Puig and Joc Pederson in the outfield, with Enrique Hernandez likely to fill a backup role and Andrew Toles as a sort of dark horse for playing time. Of course, Gonzalez faded badly in an injury-riddled 2017 season, ending with a shockingly poor .242/.287/.355 slash line in just 252 plate appearances last year. If he can’t rebound to some semblance of his former self, the Dodgers might ultimately opt to cut him loose (and eat his enormous salary) in order to move Bellinger back to first. This concern could lead to L.A. signing a platoon partner for Gonzalez at first, or adding a cheap right-handed outfield option to their roster. From my point of view, however, it doesn’t make much sense for the Dodgers to mess around with the middle- and lower-tier options at those positions. Their roster is already crowded with many players of that type, so it might not be worth sacrificing a roster spot to add another part-time bat to the mix.
Logan Forsythe is currently listed at the top of the second base depth chart for the Dodgers, and it would be perfectly reasonable to open the season with him at the keystone. Justin Turner and Corey Seager are obvious locks for their positions, so it’s hard to imagine the Dodgers making any real changes to their infield. They could, however, explore some veteran backup options. It wouldn’t be a complete shock to see them re-sign Chase Utley. The Dodgers could probably use a lefty-hitting infielder, and the 39-year-old veteran fits the bill. Other options to hit from the left side include switch-hitters Erick Aybar and Jose Reyes, but the trade market could well hold more promising possibilities.
The back end of Dodgers’ rotation for the past couple of seasons has been a patchwork quilt of oft-injured hurlers who provide solid value when healthy. But the front end is absolutely dynamite; legend Clayton Kershaw will once again be the team’s opening day starter, while Rich Hill and Alex Wood are locks for the number two and three spots. Beyond that, things get a little murkier. Kenta Maeda was a lights-out relief pitcher in the playoffs, and although he’ll probably open the season in the Dodgers’ rotation, they could also opt to use him once again as a relief ace. Buehler will contribute in some capacity this season, but I’d put my money on the Dodgers sending him to Triple-A to open 2018. Julio Urias will probably return from injury at some point as well, though that will be much later in the year and he’ll be nursed back to health with quite a lot of caution. Beyond that, whether they sign a free agent pitcher or employ a wait-and-see approach with their brittle rotation depth seems like a coin flip.
If they do sign a free agent pitcher, a reunion with Yu Darvish seems plausible. Despite an implosion during the playoffs, Darvish was solid for the Dodgers overall and comes with an extensive track record of success. Beyond him, they could be in on Jake Arrieta, or attempt to trade for Chris Archer of the Rays or Michael Fulmer of the Tigers. With the kind of rotation depth the Dodgers have, it makes more sense for them to look at large upgrades rather than risky players like Andrew Cashner or Tyler Chatwood.
The Dodgers bullpen is largely in good shape. Tony Watson and Brandon Morrow are set to depart as free agents, but the dominant Kenley Jansen remains under contract as the team’s closer. Luis Avilan, Tony Cingrani, Pedro Baez, Ross Stripling and Josh Fields will all be back as well. Their rotation depth could bleed over into their bullpen, meaning one of Brandon McCarthy, Hyun-jin Ryu or Maeda could pitch in relief to start the season. With all this in mind, it seems as though the bullpen doesn’t need much help. It wouldn’t make much sense, then, to spend big money on Greg Holland or Wade Davis, but they’ll probably explore options from the next tier. A reunion with Morrow would make plenty of sense, and beyond him there are names like Bryan Shaw, Juan Nicasio and Mike Minor that could hold appeal.
What stands out most about the Dodgers organization is its depth of resources and the multitude of ways in which it could combine them. The team could acquire a big name trade target by moving assets at the minor league level or in the majors (Pederson or Yasmani Grandal come to mind), or it could throw a wad of cash at a free agent. The Dodgers will probably make a push for Shohei Ohtani, and landing the two-way star would mean yet more possibilities for corresponding roster tweaks. At the end of the day, it seems likely that they’ll make at least one significant acquisition, and probably more than that. Under Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi, the Dodgers have sought to build without simply relying on bringing in expensive veterans from outside the organization on long-term commitments. But after coming up just shy in the 2017 World Series following five-straight NL West titles, the desire to finally win it all could provide significant motivation to cash in financial and prospect capital and put a super team on the field.
What route Dodgers end up taking this winter is anybody’s guess. But we can safely presume that they won’t have a quiet offseason. They have loads of options and they’ll be exploring all of them. I expect the name “Dodgers” to pop up often in trade and free agent rumors, and I expect them to be at the epicenter when the dominoes start to fall.
MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.
After a disappointing season ended in front office calamity, the Braves will attempt to take the next step in their rebuilding process under new baseball leadership.
Guaranteed Contracts
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
Free Agents
[Atlanta Braves Depth Chart | Atlanta Braves Payroll Outlook]
John Hart and John Coppolella provided a wild ride for the Braves’ faithful, engineering a variety of bold moves and stocking the organization with young talent. But rules violations led to the departures of both, along with league discipline that stripped the Braves of some of their most interesting younger prospects and constrained the organization’s ability to add new international talent in the coming seasons.
Former Blue Jays GM and Dodgers executive Alex Anthopoulos was brought in as an experienced hand who can get the organization back on track. But that doesn’t mean we should anticipate a quiet offseason. Though the new top baseball decisionmaker has suggested he’s not looking for a general shake-up, he swung quite a few blockbusters in Toronto and will surely have his own ideas about the roster he’s inheriting.
What remains unclear is just how aggressive the organization will be in seeking to put a winner on the field in 2018. The club enters the offseason with just over $90MM in likely commitments, including anticipated arbitration payouts. Depending upon how high payroll will rise, there could be some room for relatively significant additions. Alternatively, the club might seek to condense some of its upper-level young talent in an effort to land quality, controllable assets to the MLB roster. Entering the second year at SunTrust Park on the heels of the rules scandal, it’s possible to imagine some effort to push into contention. On the other hand, the hit to the team’s future interests may counsel in favor of some caution.
In his first acts in office, Anthopoulos took some low-cost opportunities to shore up the team’s bullpen — a notable area of need. But the pitchers he grabbed from his former organization — Grant Dayton and Josh Ravin — are just the kind of risky maneuvers we might have seen from his predecessors. The former will miss most or all of 2018 while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery while the latter has never held down a steady MLB job. But both have big-time swing-and-miss upside.
Lining up a strong and reliable relief corps, though, may well require more. There’s talent on hand, to be sure. Pitchers such as Arodys Vizcaino, Jose Ramirez, A.J. Minter, Mauricio Cabrera, Daniel Winkler, Luke Jackson, Rex Brothers, Jacob Lindgren, and Jesse Biddle have had some MLB success and/or shown impressive arsenals, not unlike Dayton and Ravin. But none of these pitchers has yet strung together multiple, successful MLB campaigns and several come with health concerns. Veterans Jim Johnson and Sam Freeman are in the picture, too, but there’s room here for further tinkering.
It’s not an altogether different picture in the rotation, which no longer includes three veteran arms — R.A. Dickey, Bartolo Colon, and Jaime Garcia — that opened with the club last year. Julio Teheran and Mike Foltynewicz are the two senior members of the staff at present; both will be looking to improve after producing middling results in 2017. They could be joined by a trio young lefties who are fresh off of their MLB debuts. Sean Newcomb still needs to hone his command to reach his ceiling, but turned in 100 solid frames. Luiz Gohara showed off his talent in five starts, posting 9.5 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9 after mostly dominating in his first taste of the upper minors in an eventful campaign. And Max Fried also got a brief run in the bigs, though his overall effort on the year suggests some further seasoning may be in order.
Otherwise, the Braves have some back-end right-handed arms available in Lucas Sims, Aaron Blair, and Matt Wisler, all of whom have struggled in their early MLB time. More exciting arms — Mike Soroka and Kolby Allard — aren’t far off after turning in strong years at Double-A, but don’t currently hold 40-man roster spots.
With that wide array of options, the Braves could actually focus on paring back some excess depth over the offseason and into the camp, though there’s also some flexibility since all of those candidates can also still be optioned. Competing the open spots between this lengthy list of young pitchers is a reasonable approach. Some may also conceivably turn into bullpen candidates instead.
At the same time, the Braves will need to strongly consider pursuing upgrades if they truly hope to put a legitimate contender on the field for the coming season. There’s some merit to considering a solid veteran type to hold down some innings at the back of the rotation, though the team passed up on a chance to retain Dickey for the purpose (though he may have been headed for retirement anyway) and it is also arguable that a more significant addition would be warranted. It’s possible to imagine the Braves dabbling in the upper levels of the free agent market, perhaps going after a hurler such as Alex Cobb or finally landing the unicorn (top-end controllable starter) that the prior administration seemingly pursued for years. There’s a long slate of possibilities at a lower price point, of course, and the Braves might also conceivably take some lower-priced risks, with righty Chris Tillman representing the most intriguing bounceback arm available to the high bidder.
There’s less to be done on the position-player side, though that shouldn’t be read as a suggestion that there isn’t any room for improvement. In addition to top star Freddie Freeman at first, the club is set up the middle with Ender Inciarte in center; Dansby Swanson, Ozzie Albies, and Johan Camargo in the middle infield; and Tyler Flowers and Kurt Suzuki behind the plate. That’s far from the best group of core position player talent in baseball, particularly given that the young infielders still are not yet fully established and the catchers are only short-term assets, but it gives the organization a base to work from this winter.
The top priority, in all likelihood, will be improving at third base. Adonis Garcia has had stretches of competence, but he’s a 32-year-old player with a .267/.300/.414 slash through 944 MLB plate appearances. Former top pick Rio Ruiz may ultimately deserve a longer look, but he hit just .193/.283/.307 in his 173 trips to the plate at the game’s highest level last year and has not exactly dominated the opposition over two full seasons at Triple-A. Around this time last year, Coppolella gave some reason to believe Travis Demeritte might be the future at the hot corner, but he took a step back in 2017 and was not protected from the Rule 5 draft. (Dustin Peterson was also left open to being claimed in the draft.) The current prospect of note is Austin Riley, who knocked around Double-A pitching after a tepid run at the High-A level. But he’s still just twenty years of age and is far from a sure thing.
While the Braves could conceivably allow Camargo to play at third while utilizing Jace Peterson as a utility infielder, that would be an awfully risky way of constructing the infield for an organization that intends to improve its on-field product. Camargo turned heads last year, but benefited from a .364 BABIP and walked at only a 4.7% clip. Swanson struggled badly after an impressive MLB debut in 2016. That also serves as a reminder not to forget that Albies is still just twenty years old and may yet have his own growing pains to experience. The better bet would be to bring in a veteran to shore things up at the hot corner for at least a season or two. MLBTR guessed that the Braves could land top free agent Mike Moustakas, who lacks an obvious landing spot, but that was and remains a speculative connection. The Braves could look at other established players on shorter-term deals, potentially including free agents ranging from Todd Frazier to Yunel Escobar or potential trade targets that could include Yangervis Solarte and Nick Castellanos. At this point, frankly, it’s hard to guess what kind of direction the pursuit might take odds are, though, that there’ll be a healthy dose of opportunism guiding the effort.
The corner outfield is another area of some intrigue (though others could open based upon other moves). Atlanta could rely again upon veterans Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis while supplementing them with a reserve or two, possibly including Lane Adams, who showed well in his first real MLB time in 2017. But the organization would probably rather upgrade over those two — neither of whom profiles as a viable everyday player at this stage of their careers — and begin preparing for a future with younger options. Shedding some salary would be preferable, too. Markakis would make for a useful platoon or reserve outfielder for a contender, though he could also remain an appealing piece in Atlanta, while Kemp could fit on an American League team in search of pop. But dealing either will mean keeping some salary, particularly for the latter.
There are some similarities between the corner outfield and the third-base situations, with one major difference. Unlike at the hot corner, there is a clear heir apparent on hand to step into an outfield spot. Top prospect Ronald Acuna is likely ready for a big league test after blowing through the minors in 2017, though the team will in all probability at least start him in the minors to capture an additional season of club control. While pursuing other pieces in the corner outfield could still make sense, particularly if a truly appealing opportunity presents itself, one spot will undoubtedly be reserved for Acuna — who could be an everyday presence for the majority of 2018 and years beyond.
That leaves one interesting, unaddressed piece of the Braves’ offseason puzzle: Matt Adams. The first baseman was a sensation upon arriving in a midseason swap, but cooled down the stretch and also missed time with injury. The Braves dabbled with positional changes to accommodate his bat in the lineup — trying Freeman at third and Adams in left — but those seem likely to be left in the rearview mirror. Now, Adams looks to be an ill-fitting piece for a team whose best player is a young, left-handed-hitting first baseman. While it’s conceivable that he’d draw interest in trade, the 29-year-old is best limited to facing right-handed pitching and occupying first base or DH. Defensively limited, good-but-not-great hitters aren’t in short supply these days, so it’s not likely that the Atlanta organization will reap a big return — and it’s possible the team will simply non-tender Adams instead.
Ultimately, despite the loss of some notable prospect capital, Anthopoulos will have quite a few pieces and a bit of payroll flexibility to work with. The wild cards here are upper management’s views on the contention timeline and the new front office’s feelings about the club’s young talent. There’s a conceivable world where the Braves end up largely maintaining their current roster for the 2018 season, with a few tweaks on the margins. There’s another where Atlanta engages in quite a bit more swapping and acquiring of assets, reflecting both Anthopoulos’s preferences and perhaps also a determination that it’s time to move toward competition. And there’s a wide gray area in between, with plenty of stopping points along the way. What was always going to be a fascinating offseason to watch is all the more interesting after the curveball that kicked it off.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.
The Nationals organization isn’t hiding the disappointment after another NLDS washout. Neither is it making any secret of its expectation of a World Series run in 2018. But what’ll it take to get there?
Guaranteed Contracts
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
Free Agents
[Washington Nationals Depth Chart | Washington Nationals Payroll Outlook]
On paper, this is a fairly simple offseason for president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo and his staff. The Nats will return all of the core of a team that coasted to a second-consecutive NL East crown. Unfortunately, though, the postseason heartbreak now hangs over the organization more than ever before. Perhaps as much as anything else, a sense that something had to change is what led to the decision to part ways with manager Dusty Baker.
The overarching question for the winter, then, is whether the organization will find it necessary to seek significant improvement to the roster that will be turned over to new skipper Dave Martinez. The Nationals may not have many glaring needs on paper, but that doesn’t mean there won’t opportunities for major acquisitions.
If there is a key area to improve, though, it’s probably behind the plate. The Nationals whiffed on their signing of Matt Wieters, who not only failed to bounce back offensively but sank to a personal-worst .225/.288/.344 batting line in 2017. The hope has been that Pedro Severino would force his way into the major-league picture, but he managed only a .242/.291/.332 slash of his own at Triple-A. Raudy Read provides another option but hardly seems to be a sure thing at this stage.
While Wieters is said to be viewed as an asset to the pitching staff, and there’s still cause for hope from the youngsters, it’s the one spot that’s crying out for improvement on this roster. As I explored earlier in the offseason, there are some possible options out there, with J.T. Realmuto of the Marlins representing an ideal (but likely hard-to-obtain) target and a few open-market veterans also worth considering. Even if the team has to commit multiple years to draw a free agent, such a player could be a part of the future solution when Wieters departs. While Wieters is going to be an important member of the team for 2018, it seems critical that the Nats reduce his role and find production from a second catcher.
There’s far less urgency elsewhere in the lineup. The Nats are locked in around the horn, with Ryan Zimmerman (first), Daniel Murphy (second), Anthony Rendon (third), and Trea Turner (shortstop) making up an enviable unit. And in the outfield, the club can flank breakout performer Michael Taylor with Bryce Harper and Adam Eaton. There are bench options on hand as well, with the left-handed-hitting Brian Goodwin representing a potentially solid platoon option to pair with Taylor and Wilmer Difo providing infield versatility. With top prospect Victor Robles impressing enough in his brief debut that he made the postseason roster, and Juan Soto also climbing the ladder, the Nats also have future outfield pieces on hand — with Robles giving the team a high-upside, potential early or mid-season call-up. Adding two veteran bench pieces — perhaps a lefty slugger type to replace Adam Lind and a righty swinger capable of playing the corner outfield (perhaps even Jayson Werth) — would round things out without much fuss.
Of course, when you’re aiming to win it all, you have to look for every opportunity to get better. In this case, it’s arguable that the Nats could stand to do more in the outfield. Taylor and Goodwin have each been top prospects in the past. But the pair overperformed expectations when thrown into surprisingly significant roles due to injury. In Taylor’s case, he rode a .363 BABIP to a .271/.320/.486 batting line; with his excellent speed and glovework mixed in, he topped 3 fWAR. He also struck out over 30% of the time; while his speed makes a higher BABIP more believable, there’s likely some regression coming. Goodwin, meanwhile, launched 13 homers and posted a .247 isolated slugging mark over 278 plate appearances — the kind of power output he has never sustained in the minors. While there has long been a hope he’d eventually tap into his nascent upside, he too is far from a sure thing.
There’s an argument, then, for the Nationals to go after a significant new bat in the outfield — especially if the organization comes to believe it likely won’t have a shot at retaining Harper past 2018. Really, it’s possible to imagine any number of possibilities, particularly since the club felt comfortable utilizing Eaton in center field to open the 2017 season (though he has long been viewed as a much better option in the corner). Were such a move to be made, the Nats could go on to flip Taylor and/or Goodwin — each of whom comes with affordable control — to bolster the pitching staff, or simply hold onto them for depth and flexibility. Alternatively, or additionally, the Nationals could spend more money than they need to on a bench piece. The club once made a luxury signing of Nate McLouth (not that it worked out well) and might do something similar — say, with Howie Kendrick, who was a quality contributor in D.C. down the stretch.
Of course, it’s also possible that a bigger move could be swung in the pitching staff. Given the presence of Robles and the possibility (however slight) of trying to get a deal done with Harper, this is likely the safer bet. The Nats stunned many when they added Max Scherzer to a rotation that was fronted by Stephen Strasburg, but that move has worked out better than anyone could have hoped. With those two joined by Gio Gonzalez and Tanner Roark, four of the five slots are taken, but the other is entirely unclaimed. Joe Ross underwent Tommy John surgery in July. A.J. Cole, Erick Fedde, and Austin Voth provide alternatives, but it’s unlikely that any of that trio will be entrusted with a rotation spot after tepid 2017 campaigns.
On the relief side, the Nationals are no doubt glad that the late-inning mix isn’t in doubt with Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson returning. But Koda Glover and Shawn Kelley are question marks, lefties Sammy Solis and Enny Romero were far from dominant, and the team is losing the steady contributions of Matt Albers and (upon his mid-season arrival) Brandon Kintzler. While younger pitchers (including some mentioned above) provide options, none have earned anything approaching a presumption of a roster spot.
There’s not a huge amount of urgency on the mound, particularly given the general state of disrepair that envelops much of the rest of the NL East. Perhaps the wiser course will prove to be one of largely waiting and observing, with an eye on dedicating resources to fill the most pressing needs once they are known at next year’s trade deadline. Early signals are that’s where the organization is leaning, though it wouldn’t likely tip its hand anyway.
There surely are plenty of potential pieces that could fill the holes without making any major commitments. The Nats previously have signed short-term veterans to shore up the rotation (Edwin Jackson, Dan Haren) and bullpen (Brad Lidge, Joe Blanton), and might look to do something similar. There’s no true analogue to E-Jax and Haren on this year’s market, though Jaime Garcia shares many of the attributes they carried when they signed. Pitchers such as old friend Doug Fister and grizzled competitor John Lackey could make sense if the team looks to fill out the rotation with a seasoned hand; CC Sabathia is also out there, though he’ll likely cost more. There are many cheaper, less-certain options in free agency. The Nats also might pounce if a team like the Diamondbacks (Patrick Corbin), Astros (Colin McHugh, Mike Fiers), or Rays (Jake Odorizzi) decide to shuffle the deck a bit. In the pen, the Nats seem likelier to focus on the right side. Re-signing Kintzler certainly makes sense on paper. Albers could be brought back, too. And there are a wide variety of hurlers in the broad range between those two pitchers that will likely sign for fairly manageable guarantees.
But those are mostly gap-filling measures, and we have to at least consider the possibility of something more. There will be opportunities to get even better from the jump, many of which simply won’t be there over the summer. It would be a bit of a stunner were the Nats to add a third top-rate pitching salary to their books, but pursuits of Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, or other top hurlers can’t be entirely ruled out — that is, so long as the Nats are willing to blow past the luxury tax line. Even in the ’pen, it’s not inconceivable that the Nationals could put in a bid on Wade Davis in hopes of fielding a dominant late-inning trio.
Rizzo has also swung quite a few high-value trades over the years. The Nats do have some outfield talent to play around with if they go hunting for a controllable starter or reliever. Sean Manaea of the Athletics is an appealing target — the Nationals and Athletics are frequent trade partners and this could be something of a reprisal of the Gio swap — though it is far from clear whether there’s a match there; Kendall Graveman might be a more realistic (but less enticing) fit. Rizzo has also done business with the Pirates, who could have some arms to spare and would draw a crowd if they market Gerrit Cole. The Nats would certainly have to weigh a run at Chris Archer if he’s made available, though he’d have a swarm of auction participants and may well not be put on the block at all.
Tampa Bay is likely more willing to part with closer Alex Colome, a power pitcher whose price tag won’t be as lofty as it was last winter after a less-than-great 2017 season. Similarly, Kelvin Herrera of the Royals might be had after his own down year; as a pending free agent, he won’t cost as much in future value. Brad Hand of the Padres ought to be available, but competition will be steep. Raisel Iglesias of the Reds is probably the most appealing reliever that could be available, though he’ll need to be pried out of Cincinnati. Iglesias, notably, is the type of pitcher that could function as the multi-inning relief piece that the Nationals don’t have. Danny Salazar could be another, and he’s a fascinating trade chip for the Indians — though that contending organization may well prefer to keep trying to unlock his upside itself.
Ultimately, those are just a lot of names that could conceivably pique the Nats’ interest. None seem particularly likely to end up moving to D.C. (or, in many cases, moving at all). But the variety of options out there shows that there are quite a few avenues for Rizzo to pursue; it would hardly be shocking for the Nationals to line up on one of these hurlers (if not some other, yet more surprising pitcher).
Another key topic for the winter centers on existing Nationals players. There’ll be at least some effort to explore a new contract with Harper. It’s conceivable the team could chat about things with Murphy, who’ll also be a free agent, though that seems less likely. The under-hyped Rendon is also clearly a candidate for a multi-year pact, though, which might offer a nice opportunity to realize some real value. There’s no urgency, but perhaps it’s not too soon to think about approaching Trea Turner with a deal that could lock in some earnings and deliver tons of upside to the team.
There’s also one other key extension candidate to account for: Rizzo himself. The team previously picked up his option for the 2018 season, but he’s not under contract beyond. Whether and when that’ll be sorted out remains to be seen — indications are that ownership would like to continue the relationship — but it seems the club would do well to ensure it retains an executive that has delivered an extended run of success while leaving the club well-situated for the future. Of course, there’s still that pesky matter of the postseason failings. It’s tough to pin dropping tightly-contested postseason series on an executive who has compiled talent capable of winning so many games. But the same general reasoning arguably held true of Baker to an extent. Ultimately, it remains to be seen whether the Lerner family extend its commitment to Rizzo before it sees how things play out in a 2018 season that could shape the future of the organization.
MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.
What was supposed to be a transitional year for the Yankees instead nearly resulted in a World Series berth, as breakouts from Rookie of the Year Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks and Luis Severino (among others) propelled the club to a 91-71 record. With an excellent young core and a still-stacked farm system, the Yankees look like a powerhouse for years to come.
Guaranteed Contracts
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
Free Agents
[New York Yankees Depth Chart | New York Yankees Payroll Outlook]
The Yankees traded their top two relievers and their designated hitter in July 2016 and played the uncharacteristic part of a deadline seller. Despite ponying up to pay Aroldis Chapman on a record-setting five-year contract, they weren’t viewed as a major threat in the AL East. Aaron Judge didn’t even enter Spring Training with a surefire spot on the big league roster — and certainly no one forecast an 8-WAR, MVP-caliber season from him — while their rotation came with injury question marks and inexperience. Could CC Sabathia endure another full, healthy season at age 37? Would Luis Severino bounce back after posting a 5.83 ERA and losing his rotation spot in 2016? Could Jordan Montgomery serve as a viable rotation member at age 24 with just 37 Triple-A innings under his belt? The answer, across the board, proved to be a resounding yes.
The Yankees’ first-half results were impressive enough that GM Brian Cashman elected to begin a good portion of his offseason shopping back in July. Even with the success in their rotation, the Yankees were cognizant of the fact that Sabathia’s contract was expiring, as was that of Michael Pineda (who had already undergone Tommy John surgery). Acquiring Sonny Gray gave the Yanks two and a half years of control over an arm that can slot comfortably into the second or third slot in their rotation. Picking up David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle (along with rental piece Todd Frazier) in a massive trade with the White Sox ensured a deep and talented bullpen and left the club with little need to pay top-of-the-market prices for additional relief help this winter.
While some of their needs are already filled, the Yankees have one gaping hole in the organization that few would’ve predicted: manager. After a decade-long run at the helm of the Yankees, Joe Girardi was informed by the team that his contract would not be renewed. Reports since his fairly stunning dismissal have suggested that the Yankees want more of a “player’s” manager and that Girardi’s relationship with Cashman wasn’t particularly strong toward the end of his tenure.
Whoever succeeds Girardi will be inheriting an enviable roster that is backed by a deep farm system. However, he’ll also have to contend with the largest and one of the most critical media markets in the country and extremely high expectations from a fanbase that is now dreaming of a World Series run. To date, Eric Wedge is the only reported candidate with prior experience as a big league manager. If the Yankees do go with a rookie skipper, it will be baptism by fire in every sense of the cliche.
Looking to the Yankees’ roster, there aren’t many glaring deficiencies — as one would expect from a team that won 91 games. Greg Bird has yet to prove himself over the life of a full season at first base, but Cashman has stated on-record that he expects Bird to be their first baseman next year as the team looks to drop under the luxury tax barrier. Despite plenty of speculation over the summer, there won’t be a pursuit of Eric Hosmer.
Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner and Judge are all but assured of regular playing time. Chase Headley once again rebounded from a slow start to finish with decent numbers, though he’ll be pushed by prospects Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar at some point in 2018. Gary Sanchez will hold down regular catching duties, though the team could certainly stand to explore the possibility of adding a better backup — potentially allowing Sanchez to spend some more time at DH.
Austin Romine’s batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage all fell shy of the .300 mark, and he threw out just 3 of 29 potential base thieves. Alex Avila would make for a nice left-handed complement to Sanchez (not that he needs platooning) and could also handle some first base if needed. Chris Iannetta would be another affordable veteran coming off a nice year in Arizona.
Plenty of Yankees fans have speculated about the possibility of a Starlin Castro trade on the heels of two decent but unspectacular seasons in the Bronx. The 27-year-old (28 in March) has been a roughly league-average bat with questionable second-base defense in two years with the Yankees, and he’s owed $22MM over the next two years. Trading him could allow the Yankees to play both Andujar (third base) and Torres (second base) with regularity on either side of Gregorius. However, there’s not much in the way of surplus value on Castro’s contract, and it’s a poor time to be selling a second baseman. Neil Walker stands as a quality free-agent option, and the trade market also features the likes of Ian Kinsler, Dee Gordon and Cesar Hernandez, among several others. Beyond that, there aren’t that many clubs seeking second-base upgrades in the first place. It’s certainly not impossible to envision a Castro trade, but it is difficult to imagine too much of a market for his services developing.
If there’s one contract that Yankees fans are clamoring to move, however, it’s that of Jacoby Ellsbury. The 34-year-old still has a whopping three years and $68.5MM remaining on his contract, to say nothing of a full no-trade clause. The Yankees will play Gardner in left, Hicks in center and Judge in right even with Ellsbury in the fold, but his presence makes it more difficult to carry Clint Frazier on the roster and also limits the team’s financial flexibility moving forward.
Unfortunately, Ellsbury hasn’t performed anywhere near well enough to make his contract movable in its current state. It’s difficult to envision him receiving even three years and $30MM on the open market right now, and I’d wager that the Yankees would need to be open to eating as much as $40-45MM to facilitate a deal. The Mariners are an oft-speculated fit given Ellsbury’s Oregon roots, but they have a crowded payroll as it is and better options to pursue in free agency.
One completely speculative possibility would be a swap involving Ellsbury and former Yankee Ian Kennedy, who is still owed $49MM over the remainder of his own undesirable deal. The Yankees would likely need to include some decent minor league talent to pique Kansas City’s interest — there’s no reason for the Royals to simply take on Ellsbury’s larger contract, especially when they need to fill their rotation — but adding an upper-level minor league arm that could affordably replace Kennedy is an intriguing concept. The Yankees would still have an overpaid fifth starter in Kennedy, but they’d lessen their luxury tax ledger considerably and open a spot to more easily fit Frazier onto the roster. (More broadly, the Yankees will again look for ways to take advantage of their overstuffed 40-man roster while also opening room for the next wave of prospects in need of protection.)
The 2018 rotation outlook was the most significant question for the Yankees heading into the season. Back in Spring Training, I noted that with Sabathia, Masahiro Tanaka and Pineda all potential free agents at season’s end and Severino/Montgomery both unproven, there was potential for a truly murky outlook. What a difference six months makes.
Severino looks likely to be the team’s Opening Day starter next year, and he’ll be trailed by Gray, Montgomery and Tanaka. The 29-year-old Tanaka made the rather surprising decision to remain with the Yankees rather than opting out of the final three years and $67MM on his contract. While it’s true that Tanaka’s ERA isn’t exactly sparkling, the righty was excellent from early June through season’s end, shined in the postseason, and generally delivered sensational K/BB numbers over the course of the season. Topping $67MM on the free-agent market looked like a clearly attainable goal (unless medical reports on his elbow are more troubling than we know), but Tanaka called the decision “simple” in announcing the move and voiced a love of New York City and the Yankees’ fans. The feeling should be mutual, as it’s a nice price for a quality player at a position of need.
With Severino, Gray, Tanaka and Montgomery all penciled into the rotation, there’s little cause to pursue a high-priced starter. A reunion with CC Sabathia makes some sense on a short-term deal, though Yankees fans are almost universally fixated on a deal with a pitcher that is nearly a decade and a half younger. Japanese superstar Shohei Ohtani will be posted by the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters if the league, the players union and Nippon Professional Baseball all agree to a new posting system. It’s not yet a guarantee that’ll happen — there’s a Monday deadline to find out — but if Ohtani becomes available, the Yankees will be among the teams favored to land him.
New York can currently offer a $3.25MM bonus, though there’s still time to trade for additional international money. The Rangers ($3.535MM) can offer the most, while the Twins ($3.245MM) are right behind the Yankees. It’s early to pencil Ohtani into their starting five, but doing so would give the Yankees a powerhouse rotation on paper and could allow the club to more freely entertain the notion of including pitching prospects like Chance Adams and Justus Sheffield in trades.
Turning to the bullpen, there’s no need for a significant overhaul. The Yankees’ pen will once again be anchored by Chapman, and the setup core currently projects to include Dellin Betances, Robertson, Kahnle, Chad Green, Adam Warren and Chasen Shreve. Another lefty could be of interest for matchup purposes, especially since most of the Yankees’ upper-level arms are right-handed, but many of the Yankees’ right-handed setup options shut down lefties as well as righties last year.
Given the depth of that group, it’s worth wondering if they’ll all return. Specifically, Betances comes to mind as a particularly obvious trade chip. The bizarre manner in which Yankees president Randy Levine called out Betances after last year’s arbitration hearing drove somewhat of a wedge between the two sides, and while Betances remains a supremely talented reliever, he also battled serious control issues in 2017 (6.6 BB/9 during the regular season plus five walks in four playoff innings).
Betances has two years of arbitration remaining and has averaged better than 15 punchouts per nine innings in the past two seasons, so he’d certainly appeal to other clubs. It doesn’t seem likely that the Yankees would simply trade Betances for a prospect(s) given their desire to compete, but they could use Betances to fill another need — such as a solid left-handed setup option with more team control, perhaps from a team looking for a shorter-term upgrade at the back of its ’pen. Doing so could also spare the Yankees a slight bit of luxury tax concern, and while that wouldn’t be a main factor in a theoretical swap, it could be a bonus.
After all, both Cashman and Steinbrenner have plainly stated that their firm plan is to get under the $197MM luxury tax line. Doing so would reset the Yankees’ penalty level — tax penalization is compounded for each consecutive year that a team is over the threshold — in advance of next year’s class of free agents. At that point, both Manny Machado and Bryce Harper will be available at the respective ages of 25 and 26. Clayton Kershaw, too, figures to be a free agent once he opts out of the remaining two years on his contract.
The Yankees still have some wiggle room — roughly $25MM or so in average annual value — to make some additions to next year’s roster. However, their proximity to the luxury tax line and stated desire to stay south of it makes it exceptionally unlikely that they’ll be a player for a major item such as Giancarlo Stanton. Even if the Yankees could acquire Stanton and ever-so-slightly stay under the luxury tax line, they’d be leaving themselves with little room for making in-season moves to address injuries and other unforeseen circumstances that arise over the course of a given year.
Rather than a major item like Stanton, it’s possible that the Yankees will instead look to beef up their bench with an improvement at backup catcher or utility infielder — they’re reportedly interested in Texas’ Jurickson Profar, for instance. They could also poke around the left-handed relief market and talk to names like Mike Minor, Jake McGee and Tony Watson.
Certainly, if the team could somehow find a way to jettison some of Ellsbury’s contract or move Headley, there’d be more flexibility for a big ticket item. It seems likelier, though, to expect a more reserved offseason in the Bronx prior to a more aggressive offseason approach following the 2018 campaign.
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After surprising many by earning a wild card slot and advancing to the NLDS last season, the Diamondbacks will juggle a large arbitration class and several key free agent decisions while trying to return to the postseason.
Guaranteed Contracts
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
Free Agents
[Arizona Diamondbacks Offseason Page | Arizona Diamondbacks Payroll Information]
It only took one offseason for first-year GM Mike Hazen to get his team back on the winning track, though in fairness to the former Tony La Russa/Dave Stewart-led front office, the 2017 D’Backs were blessed with much better health and far more breakout performances than the unfortunate 2016 squad. Since the team is now perhaps a bit ahead of schedule in terms of returning to contention, however, Hazen now faces an interesting offseason of trying to fill various roster holes while still keeping the payroll in check.
The Diamondbacks project to owe just over $114MM to 19 players next year (the five guaranteed deals and the whopping 14-player arbitration class), and that number rises to the $120MM range if you factor in the key pre-arb players who will certainly be on next year’s team. While some money could be saved via non-tenders, the D’Backs still project to have the largest Opening Day payroll in the franchise history. There isn’t going to be much, if any, of a payroll increase, according to team president Derrick Hall, who also recently stated that the D’Backs will “have to get creative in a few spots financially if we’re going to get aggressive in certain areas.”
With this in mind, it doesn’t seem like there’s much chance of a reunion with J.D. Martinez, especially given Martinez’s reported asking price of a staggering $210MM. Team management hasn’t closed the door on the chances of Martinez returning, though even if he and agent Scott Boras settle for “only” the six years and $150MM projected by MLBTR, that will leave the D’Backs committing well over half their payroll to just two players: Martinez and Zack Greinke. And that doesn’t even factor in possible extension talks with Paul Goldschmidt, as the star first baseman is only controlled through the 2019 season.
So, how could Hazen and company “get creative” in finding a way to bring Martinez back? The three cited non-tender candidates would account for $4MM, though more money could be saved in that department if Shelby Miller or Randall Delgado were also non-tendered. The D’Backs would have to be pessimistic about Miller’s recovery from Tommy John surgery or Delgado’s flexor strain to consider dumping either pitcher, though as Welington Castillo could tell you, Arizona isn’t shy about making surprising non-tender calls.
Other possibilities include shopping Patrick Corbin or A.J. Pollock, both of whom are free agents after the 2018 season. Pollock missed virtually all of 2016 due to a fractured elbow and was limited to only 112 games in 2017 due to groin and quad injuries, though he was still an above-average run creator and center field defender last season. Several teams looking for center field help would have interest in Pollock if he was made available, though given the superstar ceiling he exhibited in 2015, Arizona probably sees a healthy Pollock as a way to help fill the offensive hole left behind if Martinez departs.
After a bullpen demotion in 2016, Corbin re-established himself as a starter with a solid 3.0 fWAR season, posting a 4.03 ERA over 189 2/3 innings. He’d be a good trade chip to teams looking to add pitching, and the Diamondbacks can potentially afford to part with Corbin given how the rest of their rotation emerged as a strength last year. Even without Corbin, the Snakes would still have a nice core of Greinke, Robbie Ray, Taijuan Walker, and Zack Godley, with Miller scheduled for a midseason return and prospects Anthony Banda and Taylor Clarke knocking on the door to battle for the fifth starter’s job. A low-cost veteran could also be brought in if the D’Backs prefer Banda and Clarke as Triple-A depth to start the year.
Of course, the boldest move would be to trade Greinke, who just turned 34 in October and is still owed $138.5MM over the next four years. Greinke rebounded from a disappointing 2016 to display his usual excellent form last season. While the D’Backs are certainly more comfortable paying Greinke that much if he pitches like an ace, the fact that he accounts for such a significant portion of the payroll means that the team has to at least keep an eye out for trade possibilities. (Greinke has some control over his destiny in the form of a 15-team no-trade clause.) The D’Backs were reportedly trying to unload all of Greinke’s contract during trade talks in the summer of 2016; this still seems like a long shot now, though Greinke’s strong year will aid in getting more of his salary off Arizona’s books.
Losing Greinke rather than Corbin is obviously a much bigger blow to the rotation, though if a Greinke trade did become a reality, the D’Backs could still shop for more pitching. Consider that MLBTR projects Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb to find free agent deals this winter that combined won’t match what Greinke will earn over the next four seasons. Dealing Greinke and then signing Lynn or Cobb would be a downgrade at the front of the rotation but a major dose of payroll relief.
(Obligatory Shohei Ohtani mention: the D’Backs will certainly join every other team in baseball in trying to gain the attention of the Japanese superstar if and when the bidding begins on Ohtani’s services. It’s probably safe to categorize the Diamondbacks as a less-likely candidate to sign Ohtani, though they have been in the mix for high-profile Japanese players in the past.)
Turning to the relief side of the pitching equation, Arizona has some holes to fill with closer Fernando Rodney, Jorge De La Rosa and David Hernandez all hitting free agency. None of this trio would be particularly expensive to re-sign if the D’Backs simply wanted to get the band back together, though some upgrading will be necessary depending on what happens with the likes of Hoover or McFarland in arbitration. Archie Bradley could potentially take over the closer’s job from the somewhat shaky Rodney, though the team may feel he is more valuable as a multi-inning pitcher who can be deployed at any point in a game. Given their other needs and lack of payroll flexibility, expect the D’Backs to again target low-cost relief signings in the hopes of succeeding as they did with Rodney, De La Rosa, and Hoover last offseason.
Speaking of winning signings, Chris Iannetta more than delivered on his one-year, $1.5MM deal from a winter ago, as he hit .254/.354/.511 with 17 homers over 316 plate appearances. Arizona could try to re-sign Iannetta, or perhaps look to take advantage of what could be a somewhat quiet free agent catching market. The Rockies are the only contender with a clear need behind the plate, with the Nationals, Athletics, and White Sox all speculative candidates to look for catching help. With Jonathan Lucroy, Alex Avila, and Castillo as the big names on the market, a relative lack of suitors could bring one of these catchers into the Diamondbacks’ price range, or at least allow Iannetta to be re-signed on another relatively inexpensive deal. Castillo probably isn’t a candidate given that the D’Backs just parted ways with him last offseason, though Lucroy or Avila could add more pop from the catcher position if the Snakes don’t feel Iannetta can replicate his 2017 numbers.
Looking elsewhere around the diamond, the D’Backs are set at first base (Goldschmidt), third base (Jake Lamb), center field (Pollock), and right field (David Peralta). Yasmany Tomas is still penciled in as the left fielder, though he was plagued by injuries in 2017 and he has yet to show much consistency at the plate over his three-year MLB career. Socrates Brito looks like an interesting fourth outfielder candidate who could earn more playing time as Tomas’ late-game defensive replacement or even platoon partner. A Pollock trade would obviously shake things up considerably in the outfield; depending on the return in that deal, the D’Backs would then be in the market for center field help, perhaps a veteran like Cameron Maybin or Jarrod Dyson.
The D’Backs are also more than set in the middle infield in terms of sheer numbers, though they’ll be hoping for more production at the plate. Ketel Marte and Brandon Drury are the respective favorites at shortstop and second base, with Nick Ahmed also in the mix at short and Chris Owings available at both positions in his multi-position utility role. Veteran Daniel Descalso, whose 2018 option has already been exercised by the D’Backs, will also be back in a utilityman role.
This surplus of infielders capable of playing multiple positions makes the D’Backs a good trade partner for teams looking for infield help, such as the Blue Jays, Angels, Brewers, Red Sox, Rays, Mets, and Giants. No trade is likely to approach the scope of the Jean Segura deal from a year ago unless an infielder is included as part of a larger trade package, though the Snakes can certainly address at least one need depending on which infielder is traded. Drury and Owings have the most trade value but are also the two the D’Backs would probably most like to keep, particularly since Lamb still needs to be spelled against left-handed pitching.
This is just my speculation, but Lamb could also be a trade chip if Arizona is looking for players that could bring back a decent return. The 27-year-old has delivered a lot of pop over the last two seasons, though he also has some significant flaws — an inability to hit southpaws, below-average third base defense, and a tendency to fade after the All-Star break. Lamb is arb-eligible for the first time this winter and is controllable through 2020, so while the Snakes would miss his power, they could deal Lamb to address another need and then look for a third base alternative (or move Drury to the hot corner). Speculating further, the D’Backs could also try packaging Lamb and Tomas as a way of getting at least some of Tomas’ contract off the books.
Hazen decided against cleaning house in his first offseason as Arizona’s GM, and his relatively quiet winter was rewarded by a postseason trip. A busier offseason seems to be on the horizon now, however, as while Hazen is still looking to better position the team for the future, there is more pressure to win in the aftermath of 2017’s good results.
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A lengthy rebuild for the Royals culminated in consecutive World Series appearances and a 2015 championship, but competitive cycles are an ever-present reality for smaller- and mid-market clubs, and the Kansas City organization now faces what will likely be a franchise-altering offseason.
Guaranteed Contracts
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
Other Financial Obligations
Free Agents
[Kansas City Royals depth chart | Kansas City Royals payroll outlook]
A year ago at this time, I noted that the Royals would be facing some tough decisions on their longtime core of Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, Danny Duffy, Alcides Escobar and Wade Davis. With each of that group set to hit free agency after the 2017 campaign, it was a virtual impossibility that the Royals could retain them all. Kansas City took definitive action with two of the six, locking Duffy up on a franchise-record deal for a pitcher while trading Davis to the Cubs in the hope that former super-prospect Jorge Soler could blossom in a new setting. (Thus far, it has not worked.)
The other four remained with the club as GM Dayton Moore and his staff eyed one more run at a postseason berth with the core that brought baseball back to life in K.C. The Royals were in possession of a Wild Card spot at the trade deadline and had just watched the former first-place Twins drop six of seven games. Moore acted decisively, operating as a buyer rather than selling off Cain, Hosmer and Moustakas for prospects.
The GM has drawn his share of flak for that, but he’d almost certainly have been widely criticized for selling while in possession of a playoff spot had he moved his veteran core. That’d send an awful message to fans, and the city would’ve been left wondering what might’ve been when the team plummeted in the standings. That outcome, unfortunately, came to fruition for the Royals in spite of acquiring Melky Cabrera, Trevor Cahill, Ryan Buchter and Brandon Maurer. While Cabrera and Cahill have departed for free agency, both Maurer and Buchter can remain on hand as longer-term pieces in the bullpen.
In addition to whatever value Maurer and Buchter provide in future seasons, Kansas City will quite likely recoup three picks in the 30 to 35 range of next year’s draft if Hosmer, Cain and Moustakas all sign elsewhere. That will give them one of the largest bonus pools to work with in the amateur draft — a nice consolation prize and a good start on restocking a farm system that was depleted by trades for Johnny Cueto, Ben Zobrist and others over the course of the Royals’ impressive run of success.
While it can’t be entirely ruled out that the Royals bring back one of their departing stars — they’re reportedly most focused on Hosmer and Moustakas — it’s also difficult to see how they’d fit into a crowded payroll picture. Agent Scott Boras figures to pitch owner David Glass on the importance of both Hosmer and Moustakas not only to the on-field unit but also to the clubhouse and to the fanbase. Whether that argument carries weight with ownership remains to be seen.
Hosmer is a polarizing free agent due to his inconsistencies at the plate and the disconnect between scouts’ positive valuation of his defense and his substandard defensive metrics. He has at times been one of the better-looking hitters in the American League but has also yet to string together consecutive excellent seasons. He won his fourth Gold Glove this season but also posted one of the worst Defensive Runs Saved totals of any first baseman.
The Royals are said to love Hosmer, though, and he’s been one of the faces of the franchise as the team has returned to prominence in the AL. It’s possible that ownership ultimately views him as a special exception and fits him into the payroll, though doing so would eat up the majority of the Royals’ resources while only addressing one spot on a roster that is teeming with question marks.
Recent reports have suggested that the Royals are growing increasingly pessimistic about their chances of retaining any of that trio, though. If it ultimately proves that all three sign elsewhere, it’d open a number of doors for Moore and his staff as they ask themselves whether to take aim at another playoff pursuit in 2018 or to set their sights on a return to contention a couple of years down the line.
The Royals have little in the way of short-term assets that they could sell off for prospects. Late-inning relievers Kelvin Herrera and Joakim Soria would appeal to contenders, but both are fairly expensive and come with just one year of control. (Soria technically has two, but the second year is a mutual option, which is almost never exercised by both parties.) Brandon Moss and Jason Hammel each struggled in the first season of their respective two-year deals in 2017; Moss surely comes with negative trade value, while the best the Royals may be able to hope with regard to Hammel is that his 180 innings and respectable FIP convince a competitor to take a decent chunk of his salary off their hands.
If Kansas City deems, then, that a full rebuild is necessary, it’d have to face the tough scenarios of marketing longer-term assets in trades. Left-hander Danny Duffy, who has four years and $60MM remaining on his contract, would be one of the top starting pitchers on the trade market and could fetch multiple quality prospects and/or an MLB-ready young talent. Few teams are aggressively seeking starting catchers, but dangling the remaining four years of Perez’s contract would cause some teams to rethink their catching situations. And late-blooming star Whit Merrifield, controlled all the way through 2022, would be of immediate interest to teams in need of infield upgrades.
That said, the American League Central isn’t an intimidating division at present, with both the White Sox and Tigers rebuilding. Rather than a full rebuild, it seems likelier that Kansas City could look to operate similarly to the 2016-17 offseason. Herrera and/or Soria could be marketed as a means of acquiring some young talent and shedding payroll while still largely attempting to field a competitive unit. After all, both Duffy and Perez would come with substantial value whether marketed now, next summer or next offseason. With that in mind, the Royals may well look to shorter-term solutions at affordable rates as they wait for Moss, Hammel and albatross deals for Ian Kennedy and Alex Gordon to come off the books.
In the outfield, the Royals will have little choice but to hope that Gordon can somewhat return to form in the third season of a four-year, $72MM contract that has proven disastrous thus far. Jorge Bonifacio’s .255/.320/.432 output and 17 homers this past season could get him a full season’s worth of at-bats in right field, and the Royals at some point likely feel they need to see what they have in Jorge Soler — be it as a DH or an outfielder. Paulo Orlando and Terrance Gore remain on the 40-man roster, but at this point there’s little reason to believe that either can hit enough to command regular playing time in the Majors. Bubba Starling represents another 40-man option, but he posted a dismal .303 OBP in 80 games at Triple-A last year. Billy Burns gives Kansas City another option for a reserve role.
All of that is to say, there’s probably room for at least one outfield addition. Cameron Maybin has already been reported as a potential option, and there’s a natural on-paper fit for Jarrod Dyson to return to the Royals as a free agent. If the Royals are willing to spend a bit more, then Carlos Gomez could be brought in to play center field and likely provide more offense than any of the previously mentioned outfield candidates.
The infield is also rife with options but littered with uncertainty. Merrifield will absolutely hold down a starting spot after hitting .288/.324/.460 with 19 homers and a league-leading 34 steals. The rest of the infield is anyone’s guess. Assistant GM J.J. Picollo recently told MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan that some combination of Cheslor Cuthbert and Hunter Dozier could man the infield corners in 2018 if neither Hosmer nor Moustakas is retained. Moss will be on hand as a first-base/DH option, unless the Royals can find a taker for his salary (a daunting task in a market with so many left-handed corner bats already available). Young Raul Mondesi Jr. will likely be given the opportunity to prove his mettle at shortstop.
As is the case in the outfield, though, there’s enough uncertainty here that the Royals could add a veteran without completely blocking the paths of all their young but unproven options. Logan Morrison has already stated that it’d be a “dream come true” to play in front of his family for his hometown Royals. The Royals could once again try to wait out the first-base market as they did last winter, hoping to land a bat at a discount rate, as the supply again looks to outstrip the demand for such players.
It’s a similar situation at shortstop; as intriguing as Mondesi may be, it’d be hard not to take a look at Zack Cozart if his market remains in the three-year range. At a certain point, he represents a notable value play even if he “blocks” a shortstop option. Furthermore, Merrifield could theoretically be moved to third base or left field if the team wished to get Mondesi or prospect Nicky Lopez a look at second base.
On the pitching front, the Royals will enter the year with Duffy, Hammel, Kennedy, Jake Junis and Nate Karns penciled into the rotation — at least as things currently stand. Certainly, there’s room for another addition. Junis has yet to log a full big league season, while Karns is returning from thoracic outlet surgery. Duffy, Hammel and Kennedy have all had injuries in recent seasons as well, and no club can expect to navigate a full season with just five starters. Eric Skoglund and Sam Gaviglio are nice depth pieces, but there’s room for the Royals to add either a bounceback candidate or a solid innings eater. Chris Tillman, Clay Buchholz and Brett Anderson are among the rebound candidates available, while Jaime Garcia, Wade Miley, R.A. Dickey and Doug Fister are among the names that could be counted on for some back-of-the-rotation innings.
The bullpen, too, should give the Royals ample room to make some opportunistic additions later in the offseason. It’d be unwise to jump early and beat the market for a top-tier reliever, but there are always a few arms expected to receive hefty multi-year deals that ultimately settle for more reasonable one- and two-year pacts. It’s next to impossible to accurately forecast which arms will be left out in the cold, so to speak, but the Royals’ in-between status heading into the 2018 season likely affords them the luxury of waiting to find out.
Kansas City opened the 2017 season with a franchise-record $143MM payroll and brought that number closer to $150MM by the end of the season. With Hosmer, Moustakas and Cain all potentially departing, it’s hard to imagine owner David Glass green-lighting anything beyond that 2017 Opening Day mark. The Royals currently project to have around $129MM on next year’s books, though potential trades of Herrera, Soria, Hammel or Moss would impact that number. Assuming there’s no exception made for one of the big three free agents, then, Kansas City could have somewhere in $10-20MM worth of available funds to add to the 2018 roster (again, contingent on moving at least one veteran’s contract).
It’s not an enormous amount to play with, but the Royals have made a habit of backloading contracts and effectively utilizing mutual options as an accounting tactic to defer the guaranteed salary on a contract. That strategy could again allow the team to pursue some veterans on two- and three-year commitments this offseason.
The Royals are highly unlikely to enter the 2018 season as any kind of division favorite. However, the fact that they’re in a division with two all-out rebuilders and have their most appealing trade assets controlled for another four years makes a compelling case for Kansas City to sell short-term assets and make mid-range commitments in an effort to hang around in 2018. If that plan fails to pan out, they’ll still be able to fall back on dealing their most palatable chips down the road and embarking on a more aggressive rebuild.
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As they enter the latter stages of their rebuild, the Padres have reasons for optimism. Coming off of their ninth losing season of the past decade, that might be hard to believe. But this 71-win team probably had no business winning more than 60, which speaks volumes of the job that manager Andy Green is doing. General manager A.J. Preller and the front office have stockpiled an abundance of impressive prospects through trades, international signings and the amateur draft. As a result, the farm system might be as deep and talented as it’s ever been — and is beginning to pay dividends at the MLB level.
Guaranteed Contracts
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
Other Financial Obligations
Free Agents
[San Diego Padres Depth Chart | San Diego Padres Payroll Outlook]
Although there is still over $40MM due to players no longer on the team, payroll has been stripped down to include almost no guaranteed money in 2017 and beyond. The Padres’ estimated 2018 payroll, including projections for non-guaranteed contracts, is hovering around $50MM. Only the Phillies are lower, according to Roster Resource. In all likelihood, they should be able to spend much more than last offseason, when they committed a total of $10.9MM in free agency to sign four starting pitchers, shortstop Erick Aybar and reliever Craig Stammen.
That doesn’t mean that they’ll sign Eric Hosmer, who the team has discussed internally, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. But their interest is an indication that they might be willing to sign a top free agent under the right circumstances. Hosmer is only entering his age-28 season and expected to command a contract that is at least five years in length. If he’s convinced that the Padres are a team on the rise and on a road to contend by 2019, he could be willing to sign on. Acquiring Giancarlo Stanton is another move that, while unlikely, isn’t completely out of the realm of possibility. If they were willing to take on a good-sized portion of Stanton’s contract, the Padres’ stockpile of talent would surely entice the Marlins — though they’d still have to convince him to approve of the swap.
While Hosmer and Stanton are both long shots, it’s important to present those two cases in order to point out that the Padres are in good shape payroll-wise and have the trade chips to go after some of the best players in the game. It just might not happen this offseason.
A more likely scenario is that they’ll continue to focus on letting their young players develop together while adding some reasonably-priced veterans to fill voids on the roster and bring leadership to the clubhouse.
In 2017, several young players were given an opportunity to prove themselves. As would be expected, the results were mixed and there were plenty of peaks and valleys along the way. It didn’t go as well as the Padres had hoped, though, at least not offensively, or else hitting coach Alan Zinter wouldn’t have been fired with a month to go in the season. New hitting coach Matt Stairs will be tasked with helping the team’s young group of hitters progress and avoid the extended slumps that happened far too often.
Austin Hedges hit 18 home runs in his first full MLB season and is already considered to be one of the best defensive catchers in the game, making it easier for the Padres to live with his .214 batting average and .262 on-base percentage. Nevertheless, they’ll be hoping that the 25-year-old can become a much more disciplined hitter. Pairing him with a respected veteran like A.J. Ellis could help with his development.
After signing a franchise-record $83MM contract extension prior to the season, Wil Myers did not take the leap from very good player to superstar. He did have 30 home runs and 20 stolen bases, but the 26-year-old finished with a .243/.328/.464 slash line — disappointing for a first baseman — and also struggled defensively after looking very comfortable at the position in 2016.
A move back to the outfield for Myers isn’t out of the question, as it would allow the team to take advantage of a saturated market for first basemen—Lucas Duda or Mitch Moreland would be cheap one-year options. An already-crowded outfield picture makes it unlikely, though.
Between Yangervis Solarte, Carlos Asuaje and Cory Spangenberg, the Padres are in pretty good shape at second and third base. Former Cubs prospect Christian Villanueva, who was impressive during a September call-up (11-for-32, 4 HR), could also get a look at the hot corner.
There should be enough at-bats to go around, so it’s doubtful that the team will trade Solarte just to open up more playing time for the others. However, the switch-hitter should draw plenty of trade interest. With his team-friendly contract and ability to play all four infield spots, the 30-year-old switch-hitter is an excellent fit on several contending teams. Those attributes, in addition to his leadership skills, also make him a great fit in San Diego, though.
While Solarte didn’t look terrible during his 24 starts at shortstop in 2017, he’s not likely to get an extended look at the position. The Opening Day starter is widely expected to be someone who is either acquired via trade or signed as a free agent this offseason. Zack Cozart, Alcides Escobar, J.J. Hardy and Jose Reyes are all free agent possibilities, while Freddy Galvis, Adeiny Hechavarria, Jose Iglesias, Jurickson Profar and Jonathan Villar are potential trade targets.
MLBTR predicts that the Padres will sign Cozart, the top free agent shortstop available, to a three-year, $42MM deal. With only a handful of teams in need of a shortstop, perhaps it wouldn’t be too shocking if the 32-year-old got only two years and a few million dollars less per season than our projection, which would help the Padres’ case. But if they really want to ensure that they can adequately fill what has been a revolving door of disappointment, they might not want to wait around too long in hopes of the price coming down. The bigger question is whether Cozart would want to sign with a team that isn’t quite ready to contend, even if he believes that they are a headed in the right direction.
The Padres will also have two of the best prospects in baseball playing shortstop in the upper minors in 2018, with Luis Urias and Fernando Tatis Jr. likely to man the position in Triple-A and Double-A, respectively. Neither player is expected to make the full-time jump to the Majors until at least early 2019. And even then, Urias is probably a better fit at second base and Tatis, if necessary, could slide over to third base. Of course, the Pads would also have the option of sliding any new veteran acquisition to another spot in the future to accommodate the youngsters.
Coming off of a strong rookie season, Manuel Margot is locked in as the team’s center fielder for the foreseeable future. The corner spots aren’t set in stone, although Jose Pirela should have the inside track for the left field job after an impressive 83-game stint in 2017. While it was obvious that the converted infielder has some work to do defensively, the transition had no effect on his hitting as he slashed .288/.347/.490 with 10 homers and 25 doubles in 344 plate appearances.
Hunter Renfroe is the leading candidate to be the starting right fielder, but the job is not his to lose. His power potential is huge—he hit 26 homers, breaking the team’s rookie record—and he has one of the strongest throwing arms in baseball. But unlike Hedges, who can get away with his offensive deficiencies to some extent because of his plus defense as a catcher, Renfroe will not continue to get regular at-bats if he’s only reaching base at a .284 clip and striking out 29% of the time as he did in 2017. The 25-year-old learned that when was demoted to Triple-A in mid-August. He responded, however, with a strong showing during his month in the Minors followed by an impressive return to the big leagues in mid-September. He hit a three-run homer in his first at-bat after his promotion and then had a three-homer game two days later.
Renfroe should face some stiff competition if Alex Dickerson returns to health after missing all of 2017 with a back injury. The left-handed batter slashed .255/.333/.455 with 10 homers in 285 plate appearances during his first extended look in the Majors back in 2016. He’s not a very good outfielder, but the Padres could use his bat in the middle of the order.
Franchy Cordero isn’t quite ready to contribute, as evidenced by his struggles as a 22-year-old rookie (6 BB, 44 K in 99 plate appearances). But he could force his way into the picture if he continues to tear the cover off the ball in Triple-A, where he posted a .972 OPS with 17 homers, 21 doubles, 18 triples and 15 stolen bases. Matt Szczur and Travis Jankowski are also in the mix, although both are likely ticketed for part-time roles. Both players could draw trade interest from teams in search of a fourth outfielder.
The Padres needed some semi-reliable innings-eaters at a very minimal cost in 2017 and they couldn’t have done much better than Jhoulys Chacin (180 1/3 IP, 16 quality starts) and Clayton Richard (197 1/3 IP, 14 quality starts), who both signed one-year, $1.75MM deals prior to the season. Even Trevor Cahill, who signed for the same amount, pitched effectively (when healthy) prior to being traded to the Royals in July.
Richard is already back in the fold after signing a two-year, $6MM contract extension in September and it wouldn’t be a surprise if the team makes a strong effort to retain Chacin. They’ll have plenty of competition with starting pitchers in high demand and not many good ones available. But the Padres should be able to make a fairly competitive offer while also hoping that Chacin’s success at Petco Park—he was 9-3 with a 1.79 ERA in 16 home starts—will give them an edge if they’re not the highest bidder.
Cahill, a San Diego native, is also a candidate to return, as is Tyson Ross, who might have his best shot at returning to form under Darren Balsley’s tutelage. Ex-Padres won’t be the only pitchers interested in working with Balsley, who is entering his 16th season as the team’s pitching coach. Chris Tillman, Hector Santiago and Yovani Gallardo are just a few of a long list of free agent pitchers looking to rebuild their value.
Unlike last season, when it was necessary to bring in four veteran starters to fill out the rotation—Jered Weaver was the only one of the group who didn’t pitch well—the team is in much better shape heading into 2018. Dinelson Lamet was very good during his rookie campaign, flashing frontline starter ability on occasion, while sinker-baller Luis Perdomo looks to have solidified a spot in the back of the team’s rotation. Lefty Matt Strahm, the key return in the six-player trade with Kansas City in July, will compete for a rotation spot along with Robbie Erlin and Colin Rea, each of whom should be fully recovered from Tommy John surgery.
A wave of top starting pitching prospects could also begin to arrive in the Majors by mid-season. Cal Quantrill, the eighth pick in the 2016 draft, along with Logan Allen, Eric Lauer, Joey Lucchesi and Jacob Nix, are all expected to begin the season in either Double-A or Triple-A. It wouldn’t be a surprise if any one of them is knocking down the door to the big leagues at some point in 2018. Another wave of what is likely an even more impressive group of starting pitchers could begin to arrive in 2019. Help appears to be on the way.
Surprisingly, top reliever Brad Hand remained with the Padres past the trade deadline. He took full advantage of his first opportunity as a closer, posting a 2.15 ERA with a 12.1 K/9 and 19 saves in 21 chances after taking on the gig in late July. As teams got every last bit out of their top relievers in the post-season, it was clear that a lefty who is capable of pitching multiple innings and dominating against both right-handed and left-handed hitters is extremely valuable for any playoff team. In fact, Hand’s price tag might’ve gone up since July. Preller should get plenty of strong offers and he’s not likely to pass on the chance to cash in on an elite reliever at what is likely to be peak value.
If Hand is traded, the Padres will almost certainly be in the market for a veteran closer who can hold down the fort for a few months before being flipped to a contender prior to the trade deadline. Former Padres Huston Street and Fernando Rodney would be low-cost options.
The group of Padres relievers expected to bridge the gap to the closer is a bit on the inexperienced side, but they were a big reason why the team was much better than expected in 2017 and highly competitive, for the most part. Kirby Yates (14.1 K/9, 20 holds) and Phil Maton (9.6 K/9, 8 holds) were effective as the team’s primary setup men, while lefties Jose Torres, Buddy Baumann and Kyle McGrath all pitched well down the stretch. The team would gladly welcome Craig Stammen back, but he is likely to parlay his strong season into a multi-year deal with a contender.
If Carter Capps can ever come close to returning to his pre-injury form, the Padres will have themselves another late-inning option. He did not look very good over a year-and-a-half removed from Tommy John surgery and now he’ll need to bounce back from his September surgery for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. Strahm could also factor into the late-inning mix if he doesn’t win a rotation spot. As a rookie in 2016, he looked very comfortable in a relief role for the Royals, posting a 1.23 ERA with 30 strikeouts in 21 innings.
Even with a successful offseason, the best-case scenario for the 2018 Padres is probably no better than a .500 record. And that’s fine. It’s another step in the right direction. For proof that a successful rebuild takes patience, look no further than the World Champion Houston Astros. They endured six consecutive losing seasons from 2009-2014, including three consecutive years with at least 106 losses. General manager Jeff Luhnow began the rebuild immediately after he was hired following the 2011 season. The expectation was that they’d be bad for a few seasons. And they were. Four years later, though, he had his team in the playoffs. Six years later, they were celebrating their first World Series title. They are also set up to be perennial playoff contenders.
If the Padres can stay the course, it’s not a stretch to think that they could follow a similar path.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.
The Rockies made their triumphant return to the postseason, but bowed out after dropping the Wild Card play-in game. Overcoming the Dodgers in the NL West will be a tall order, and the Rox face several roster questions.
Guaranteed Contracts
Options
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR & Matt Swartz)
Free Agents
[Colorado Rockies Depth Chart; Colorado Rockies Payroll]
There are some needs here, but also some resources. Colorado’s payroll has ramped up rather noticeably in the past three seasons, going from $97MM to $112MM and then up to $127MM. As things stand, the team’s 2018 guarantees plus anticipated arb costs add up to about $90MM. Thus, even if there’s no further boost — that’s still unclear — GM Jeff Bridich could have nearly $40MM of open payroll to play around with.
Where, then, do the needs lie? The most noticeable hole, perhaps, is at the back of the bullpen. Greg Holland proved a worthwhile free agent acquisition last winter, though incentives drove his one-year cost up to a healthy $15MM (from an initial $6MM salary). He gave up the chance at another $15MM payday and is expected to decline a $17.4MM qualifying offer, preferring instead to return to free agency. With live-armed lefty Jake McGee and midseason acquisition Pat Neshek also reaching the open market, the Rox will lose a large portion of the their late-inning firepower.
Colorado could pursue some or all of its own free agents, and perhaps it’s reasonable to anticipate that to a point. It certainly seems that both Holland and the team are fond of one another, but he’s going to cost a bundle and comes with all the risks one might imagine would accompany a soon-to-be 32-year-old reliever that recently underwent elbow surgery. The Rockies have a few power arms on hand, including Adam Ottavino and youngsters such as Carlos Estevez, but it’s difficult to imagine any being entrusted with the ninth inning. If Holland can’t be had, then, it’s possible to imagine Bridich checking into the trade market or shopping from among a variety of late-inning arms. Some free-agent hurlers have significant closing experience, such as Addison Reed and Steve Cishek, while others have arguably shown enough to deserve such an opportunity. Among the interesting names on the market are the veteran control artist Neshek, former Rockies hurler Juan Nicasio, and Brandon Morrow. Even if the club lands a big closer, it could consider those and other options as it seeks additional setup options. The team has two southpaws with Mike Dunn and Chris Rusin, but another righty late-inning arm would be welcome.
The fact that there are some openings shouldn’t be read as a suggestion that the pitching staff isn’t in a good place. In fact, the rotation looks solid enough that it could distribute some spare arms to the ’pen if the team enjoys good health fortune. Though Tyler Chatwood is on his way out, the Rockies have compiled a group of solid hurlers behind staff ace Jon Gray. German Marquez and Kyle Freeland, and Chad Bettis are all but certainties for rotation spots so long as they are healthy. Antonio Senzatela and Jeff Hoffman faded late, while Tyler Anderson struggled early and closed strong, but all three could compete for the final job out of camp. Those that fall shy will bolster the relief corps or remains stretched out at Triple-A for depth. It’s conceivable that the Rockies could add another veteran pitcher to this mix, but hardly necessary; it’s more likely, perhaps, that the club will sign a swingman type for the pen and/or add a veteran or two on low-commitment minors deals.
One way to squeeze value out of an existing pitching staff is to improve the catching situation, and that figures to be an area of focus for Colorado. Tony Wolters slid offensively last year, while Tom Murphy struggled through an injury-limited campaign. Mid-season acquisition Jonathan Lucroy shored things up once he arrived and looks to be a strong candidate for a return. Lucroy is already 31 years of age and comes with some questions after lagging at the plate and in the framing department in the first half of 2017. But he has been one of the game’s best receivers for some time now and rebounded upon his arrival in Colorado. Now, he’s a known quantity who would fill a clear need. Other open-market options include Alex Avila and Welington Castillo.
Otherwise, half of the lineup is fixed. Third baseman Nolan Arenado, shortstop Trevor Story, second baseman DJ LeMahieu, and center fielder Charlie Blackmon are all everyday players. The only offseason questions facing this group relate to the possibility of new contracts. Blackmon and LeMahieu are each entering their walk years, while Arenado is just one season behind them. It’s possible to imagine the Rockies exploring long-term arrangements with any of these players, but getting something done will likely require an uncomfortable contractual commitment — especially with Arenado and Blackmon, who are among the very most productive players in the game. The former is still just 26 and could reasonably point to the Giancarlo Stanton extension as a comp; the latter is already 31, thus limiting his contractual upside, but could legitimately seek a four-year promise at a premium rate of pay to forego a shot at free agency. Story, meanwhile, seems safe in his job for now but doesn’t look like an extension candidate at this point given his strikeout problems and the presence of the fast-rising Brendan Rodgers.
That brings us to the potential moving parts on the position-player side of things: first base, the corner outfield, and the bench. There are options here, though it’s also possible the Rockies will take a fairly simple path to rounding things out.
Ian Desmond was supposed to slot in at first last year, a quizzical decision from the start that only looked worse as the season wore on. Desmond struggled at the plate upon returning from injury and ultimately ceded first base to Mark Reynolds, who is now again a free agent. Ultimately, Desmond played mostly in the corner outfield, and it seems likely the versatile veteran will be penciled in there to open the year. Colorado can do little but hope that he follows the path of Gerardo Parra, who surged after a disappointing first season after joining the club as a free agent. Those two could serve to occupy a major portion of the time flanking Blackmon. Meanwhile, the Rockies have a slate of other outfield possibilities on hand. Left-handed hitters Raimel Tapia, Mike Tauchman, and David Dahl are all on the 40-man. Each has shown quite a bit of promise at times but also comes with questions of varying kind and degree. The righty-swinging Noel Cuevas was also just placed on the 40-man and could compete for a job.
Put it all together, and it’s certainly possible that the Rockies already have compiled their outfield unit. Viewed that way, the offseason path is simple: salute former star Carlos Gonzalez on his way out the door and think about a plan to account for the loss of first baseman Mark Reynolds, who provided sufficient production at a bargain rate in 2017. With Pat Valaika on hand to function as a utility option, there really isn’t much to do but settle first base.
At first, there are a multitude of options. Colorado could plan to rely upon youngster Ryan McMahon, who has little to prove at Triple-A. (He has also spent time at second and third, which increases his roster utility now and in the future.) The lefty hitter might be complemented with a right-handed-hitting addition, which could come in the person of Reynolds. Despite tallying thirty home runs, it is worth noting that the 34-year-old’s overall batting productivity remained in the realm of league average, as it has been for most of the past six seasons. With quite a few other slugger types floating around in free agency, Reynolds likely won’t require a major outlay to bring back. Alternatively, the club could look to players such as Mike Napoli or Danny Valencia to join McMahon.
That is the most straightforward and cost-effective way for things to go, but hardly the only one. It’s plenty arguable that the Rockies can and should pursue a more aggressive approach — particularly with an imposing Dodgers team still dominating the division. Colorado pursued Jose Abreu as a free agent and might see a lot to like in his contractual rights. Abreu is one of the game’s better hitters; while he’s not cheap with a projected $17.9MM arbitration salary in his second-to-last arb year, that’s a cost level that won’t break the bank. And the Rockies likely have sufficient prospect depth to entice the White Sox without bankrupting their future. You can probably squint and see high-priced free agent Eric Hosmer as a fit here, particularly given Colorado’s track record of seeking reputed high-character types, and free agency also comes with a variety of other quality first basemen (most notably, the switch-hitting Carlos Santana). Conceivably, the Rockies could also even revert to their original plans with Desmond, putting him in some sort of first base/super-utility role while adding a bigger corner outfield piece instead of a first baseman.
It’s possible to imagine quite a few scenarios, really. Investing in a veteran position player, for instance, might free the Rockies to utilize young position-player assets to acquire a quality young reliever. It’s an exciting time to be a Rockies fan — though that also means expectations will be high for Bridich and his staff.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.
For the second time in three years, the Twins made a surprising push for the AL Wild Card. Unlike their 2015 campaign, though, Minnesota made it to the postseason this time around. The 2017 Twins look like a much more believable contender than the ’15 group, so chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine figure to approach this offseason much differently than the 2016-17 offseason.
Guaranteed Contracts
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
Free Agents
[Minnesota Twins depth chart | Minnesota Twins payroll outlook]
A lot went right for the 2017 Twins, who surprised baseball with an 85-win season and an American League Wild Card berth. That several top-rated young talents took steps forward this season means that much of the lineup is already set.
Byron Buxton rebounded from an awful start to hit .274/.333/.452 over his final 459 plate appearances. Coupled with elite defense and baserunning, Buxton’s turnaround led to a 5-WAR season by measure of Baseball-Reference and 3.5 WAR by Fangraphs. Miguel Sano homered 28 times in 114 games, though he fouled a ball into his shin in August, resulting in a fracture that all but ended his season. He’s expected to be healthy by Spring Training after November surgery. Meanwhile, 26-year-old Eddie Rosario had a breakout year at the plate with 27 homers, improved K/BB numbers and a strong .290/.328/.507 overall line. Jorge Polanco was one of baseball’s worst hitters in July but erupted with a .316/.377/.553 slash over the final two months (234 PAs).
The Twins also received contributions from veteran hitters that are expected to return. Brian Dozier was again one of the top second basemen in the game, hitting 34 homers and swiping 16 bags with a 124 wRC+. Joe Mauer turned back the clock with a .305/.384/.417 line — good for a 116 wRC+. Robbie Grossman walked at a near 15 percent clip and posted a .361 OBP.
With Sano, Polanco, Dozier and Mauer set to return, the Twins could consider their infield largely set. Eduardo Escobar is on hand as an offensive-minded backup, while Ehire Adrianza can provide excellent defense at any infield spot. However, there’s also room yet to make an addition. With Grossman penciled in as the primary DH, the Twins could conceivably look to shift Sano to that spot on a more regular basis. That’d open up the possibility of signing an infielder for the left side of the diamond (e.g. Zack Cozart, Todd Frazier). Alternatively, the Twins could grab a first baseman like Carlos Santana or a corner bat like Carlos Gonzalez to mix in at DH. Santana would give the Twins two of the game’s better first-base defenders (Mauer rated quite well there in ’17) to rotate between first base and DH.
The other spot the Twins could conceivably add would be in right field. Max Kepler is still just 24 years old (25 in February) and has shown plenty of promise in the Majors, but he’s yet to put it all together. An above-average defender who has shown the ability to hit for power, Kepler has also struggled against left-handed pitching, and he’s yet to hit righties well enough to truly compensate for that deficiency. Young Zack Granite profiles as a quality fourth outfielder, but he’s also a left-handed bat, so perhaps the Twins could pursue a right-handed bat in the Austin Jackson mold to at least provide Kepler with a platoon partner.
Minnesota could also look to add a backup catcher to the fray. Castro provided slightly below-league-average offense (above-average relative to other catchers) and a massive defensive upgrade in Minnesota, so they’re likely content with him as the starter. Minnesota could simply opt to re-sign clubhouse favorite Gimenez or turn to prospect Mitch Garver to fill that role. Names like Chris Iannetta and Rene Rivera are among the right-handed-hitting alternatives that could pair well with the southpaw-swinging Castro. (Castro handled lefties just fine with a .737 OPS in 2017, but he’s historically struggled against same-handed opponents.)
While the position-player side of the equation looks promising and gives the Twins the flexibility to be opportunistic, things aren’t as rosy on the pitching staff. Outside of Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios, the Twins don’t have much in the way of rotation stability heading into 2017. Santana finished second in the Majors in innings pitched and turned in a 3.28 ERA, though secondary metrics were far less optimistic about his performance. At worst, he should be a durable innings-eater capable of posting an ERA in the low 4.00s, but he’s outperformed his peripherals for nearly two full years now and could again turn in a mid-3.00s mark. Berrios solidified himself as a Major Leaguer in ’17, and the Twins will now count on him to take a step forward in 2018. He won’t turn 24 until late May, and he comes with some yet-untapped potential despite a quality 3.89 ERA in 145 2/3 MLB innings this year.
Kyle Gibson figures to return after once again teasing the Twins with a Jekyll and Hyde act. Gibson was one of baseball’s worst starters in the first half of the season, but the former first-rounder was Minnesota’s best pitcher in the second half. In 70 2/3 frames after the break, he turned in a 3.57 ERA with 8.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a 50.2 percent grounder rate. We’ve seen this roller coaster ride out of Gibson before, but the strong finish likely spared him from a non-tender.
Adalberto Mejia, who showed promise but needs to dramatically improve his efficiency to work deeper into games, is a candidate to grab the fourth spot in the rotation. Minnesota has a pair of top 100 pitching prospects on the cusp of MLB readiness in lefty Stephen Gonsalves and righty Fernando Romero, but both will open the season in Triple-A. Other candidates for the back of the rotation that are currently on the 40-man roster include Aaron Slegers, Felix Jorge and Dietrich Enns. Veteran Phil Hughes is a wild card after undergoing a thoracic outlet syndrome revision surgery this past summer, but he could also work out of the ’pen if he’s healthy enough to contribute.
In short: there’s room to add to the rotation, and that’s perhaps where the greatest level of intrigue sits when looking at the Twins’ offseason. As recently explored at length here at MLBTR, the Twins have an extremely favorable long-term payroll outlook. They’re at about $85MM after arb projections for the 2018 season — some $30MM shy of their franchise-record payroll — but they’re set to see Joe Mauer’s $23MM salary come off the books after 2018. Minnesota has just $24MM guaranteed on the 2019 books and, somewhat incredibly, doesn’t have a single guaranteed dollar committed to the 2020 roster.
The Twins, obviously, aren’t known for pursuing top-tier free agents. But with clubs like the Yankees, Giants, Red Sox and Rangers (among others) all unlikely to commit substantial dollars to starting pitching for various reasons this winter, the Twins could surprise. FanRag’s Jon Heyman has already linked the Twins to the very top levels of the free-agent market, including Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta plus noted second-tier arms Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb. It’d still be a shock to see Minnesota commit $25MM+ annually to Darvish or Arrieta, but the club could realistically afford to do so — especially on a more backloaded deal. And, with the White Sox, Tigers and possibly Royals rebuilding within their division — there’s increased motivation to be aggressive and try to win right now.
Nippon Professional Baseball star Shohei Ohtani is seemingly mentioned in all of our Offseason Outlooks, as he’d unequivocally make sense for any team. It’s at least worth noting a recent AP report that indicated the Twins have the third-most money remaining in their international pool to entice Ohtani (behind the Yankees and Rangers). One has to consider Minnesota a long-shot to sway Ohtani to sign, but it’s an avenue they’ll at the very least explore — and with more resources than most of their competitors. Their lack of a firm DH could also allow them to at least offer occasional at-bats to Ohtani there.
As murky as things are in the Twins’ rotation, the bullpen may be even more unsettled. Sidearm righty Trevor Hildenberger was quietly excellent in his rookie season and has firmly entrenched himself in the team’s late-inning mix. Lefty Taylor Rogers turned in a solid sophomore season and will be back. Hard throwing Alan Busenitz posted a 1.99 ERA in 31 2/3 innings, but he didn’t show much of an ability to miss bats despite averaging nearly 96 mph on his heater. He’ll still likely receive another look. Fellow righty Ryan Pressly threw just as hard, missed more bats and racked up grounders while showing passable control — but a proclivity for serving up homers torpedoed his ERA. His combination of whiffs, grounders and solid control should earn him another chance. Tyler Duffey shined early in a multi-inning role but faded as the season wore on.
The Twins will also have hard-throwing righty (and MLBTR contributor) Trevor May coming back from Tommy John surgery. He could factor into either the rotation or the bullpen mix, though it’s not yet certain which role the club envisions. Other ’pen candidates include righty John Curtiss and lefty Gabriel Moya, each of whom posted video-game numbers in the minors and earned a September call-up. J.T. Chargois, who missed most of the season with an elbow issue but has dominated upper-minors hitters, is another option, as are Jake Reed and Nick Burdi (once he returns from Tommy John surgery).
It’s a long list of names that comes with minimal certainty. If the Twins expect to enter the season as contenders, they’ll need to stabilize the late innings. As is the case with regards to the rotation, the Twins have the payroll capacity to spend. Perhaps the notion of committing a four-year deal at more than $10MM annually won’t sit well with the front office, but even if they don’t pursue Wade Davis or Greg Holland (both reasonable on-paper targets), the market is flush with high-quality arms.
Brandon Morrow, Mike Minor, Addison Reed, Juan Nicasio, Bryan Shaw (who Falvey knows well from his Indians days), Jake McGee and old friend Pat Neshek are all among the relievers coming off strong seasons that should command multi-year commitments. Minor, McGee and Tony Watson may be of particular interest, as the Twins currently lack a second lefty to pair with Rogers. (Buddy Boshers was the most common option in 2017, though he often looked overmatched.) Frankly, it’d be a surprise if the Twins didn’t add at least one reliever on a multi-year deal, and it seems quite likely that they’ll be in play for some higher-end arms that could serve as a closer.
As Spring Training draws nearer, the Twins will also have internal questions to address. Namely, Dozier is controlled for just one more season — his age-31 campaign — leaving the front office with the task of deciding whether to lock up a player that has emerged as a clubhouse leader, a fan favorite and one of the better second basemen in all of baseball.
Dozier’s age will likely prevent the Twins from wanting to offer an especially lengthy commitment, but Minnesota should at least explore the possibility of retaining him. Daniel Murphy inked a three-year, $37.5MM deal beginning with his age-31 season, though Dozier’s 2016-17 production vastly outpaces Murphy’s two-year platform for that contract. Justin Turner inked a four-year, $64MM deal beginning with his age-32 season. I’d lean toward Turner as the better comp, but both could be talking points in extension discussions.
Top shortstop prospect Nick Gordon is near MLB-ready and could push Polanco to second base in the event that Dozier departs, but Dozier’s presence both on and off the field would be tough to replace.
The Twins will also have to look hard at whether they’d like to approach Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Polanco or Berrios about long-term deals, though there’s obviously quite a bit less urgency on that front; Sano, Buxton and Rosario won’t even be eligible for arbitration until next winter. Polanco and Berrios are even further out.
It’s an odd feeling to write sentences such as: “The Twins should have money to spend this offseason, and it’d be curious if they didn’t do so in a much more aggressive manner than in recent years.” But, that genuinely seems to be the case for the Twins, whose young core, pristine payroll outlook in 2020 and beyond and presence in a division rife with rebuilding clubs gives them an opportunity to reestablish their presence as an annual contender.
We’ve yet to see Falvey and Levine navigate an offseason in which the team acts as an expected contender, so it’s tough to gauge whether the club will utilize free agency or the trade market more in adding to the 2018 roster. Regardless of their preferred avenue, the 2017-18 offseason should be the most active in recent history for the Twins in terms of player acquisition.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
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