Headlines

  • Cubs To Promote Moises Ballesteros
  • Evan Longoria To Sign One-Day Contract, Retire As Member Of Rays
  • Diamondbacks To Promote Jordan Lawlar
  • Rockies Fire Bud Black
  • Cubs Promote Cade Horton
  • Rafael Devers Unwilling To Play First Base
  • Previous
  • Next
Register
Login
  • Hoops Rumors
  • Pro Football Rumors
  • Pro Hockey Rumors

MLB Trade Rumors

  • Home
  • Teams
    • AL East
      • Baltimore Orioles
      • Boston Red Sox
      • New York Yankees
      • Tampa Bay Rays
      • Toronto Blue Jays
    • AL Central
      • Chicago White Sox
      • Cleveland Guardians
      • Detroit Tigers
      • Kansas City Royals
      • Minnesota Twins
    • AL West
      • Houston Astros
      • Los Angeles Angels
      • Oakland Athletics
      • Seattle Mariners
      • Texas Rangers
    • NL East
      • Atlanta Braves
      • Miami Marlins
      • New York Mets
      • Philadelphia Phillies
      • Washington Nationals
    • NL Central
      • Chicago Cubs
      • Cincinnati Reds
      • Milwaukee Brewers
      • Pittsburgh Pirates
      • St. Louis Cardinals
    • NL West
      • Arizona Diamondbacks
      • Colorado Rockies
      • Los Angeles Dodgers
      • San Diego Padres
      • San Francisco Giants
  • About
    • MLB Trade Rumors
    • Tim Dierkes
    • Writing team
    • Advertise
    • Archives
  • Contact
  • Tools
    • 2024-25 MLB Free Agent List
    • 2025-26 MLB Free Agent List
    • 2024-25 Top 50 MLB Free Agents With Predictions
    • Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2025
    • Free Agent Contest Leaderboard
    • Contract Tracker
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Agency Database
  • NBA/NFL/NHL
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors
  • App
  • Chats
Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Poll: How Much Will Eric Hosmer Earn In Free Agency?

By Jeff Todd | October 13, 2017 at 9:34pm CDT

We’ve heard varying suggestions on just how much money soon-to-be free agent Eric Hosmer may be seeking, or may command, on the open market. That’ll all be sorted out when the negotiations start in earnest, but it’s fun to begin thinking about it now.

We’re now just a few weeks away now from the start of free agency, after all. First, the Royals will issue a qualifying offer — which will be at a $17.4MM rate. Hosmer, inevitably, will reject it, making him a free agent just weeks after his 28th birthday.

By now, Hosmer’s broad profile is well-known. The former third overall draft pick played in all 162 games this year, slashing a robust .318/.385/.498 and banging 25 home runs for the second consecutive season. That’s quite a bit more than he has produced previously, though Hosmer has had other solid seasons at the plate.

The question teams will be asking is whether there’s reason to believe that Hosmer can maintain that level of output. He rode a .351 batting average on balls in play in 2017, steadily outpacing his .316 career rate. And Hosmer has stayed within the same general K/BB range as ever, while continuing to put the ball on the ground over half the time. His hard-hit rate dropped below thirty percent for the first time since his debut season. When he did put the ball in the air, it went out of the park over twenty percent of the time for the second consecutive season, though it’s still fair to wonder whether that’s sustainable.

There are other factors, too, of course. Hosmer is no longer a double-digit annual stolen base threat and hasn’t always drawn strong reviews from baserunning metrics. Likewise, defensive metrics have never matched his generally positive reputation with the glove. In these areas, perhaps, Hosmer’s reputation outpaces what some of the numbers say — as a result, he hasn’t even yet cracked 10 fWAR over his career — although these are among the most controversial areas of sabermetric analysis.

Perhaps the most interesting concept, though, is the idea that Hosmer delivers value that outpaces his direct, on-the-field contributions. Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star just published an interesting, though eminently arguable look at the evident position that super-agent Scott Boras intends to take on the matter this fall. Most intriguingly, Boras is said to be readying for an attempt at quantifying the ways in which Hosmer’s halo adds value by producing “a metric on intangibles.”

Mellinger cites an executive that thinks Boras will be looking for something like $20MM annually on a decade-long term. That’s quite an ask for a first baseman with the stat line of Hosmer’s — particularly in a day and age when a far superior hitter such as Edwin Encarnacion can only get $20MM over three years (albeit at a significantly older age) and with a number of other quality bats available in free agency.

Plenty of less-than-amazing batters have taken down big money over long terms, though typically such players were expected to deliver significant value in the field and on the bases. Jason Heyward, for example, got $184MM over eight years (plus two opt out opportunities). But Heyward was only 26 and was one of the game’s most valued defenders. Oh, and he also carried a lifetime 118 wRC+ to that point — clearly superior to Hosmer’s 111 wRC+ career mark, though the latter did have the bigger offensive platform season.

We aren’t going to get a sneak peek at Boras’s binder. But Mellinger lays out the broad case for Hosmer to out-earn his prior productivity:

But consider this. The Royals built their success, in large part, on intangibles. How much did they talk about clubhouse friendships, of bonds formed in the minor leagues, and of the joy they found in playing for each other?

For argument’s sake, let’s assume that was overstated, and that the parade happened because of athleticism and relief pitching more than anything else. But you can’t have watched the Royals’ rise without believing the other stuff had a part in it, too. The resiliency in the comebacks, the consistent performance in the biggest moments.

The Royals had a parade because of these things, the team welcoming in record attendance and interest.

Shouldn’t the players be rewarded, too?

Do you buy that? Even a little? How do you value it? And how do you value the stat line you expect Hosmer to put up? Rolling it all together, just how much will he be worth on the open market? (App users can click here for the poll.)

Share 0 Retweet 10 Send via email0

Kansas City Royals MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Eric Hosmer

Angels Engaged In “Dialogue” With Justin Upton
Main
Astros Acquire Juan Ramirez From Tigers To Complete Verlander Trade
View Comments (56)
Post a Comment

56 Comments

  1. ba2929

    8 years ago

    Hosmer’s going to get something like 6 years, $110 million from someone. That’s my prediction.

    Not sure what team is going to give him that (not the Royals), but someone will.

    2
    Reply
  2. CompanyAssassin

    8 years ago

    I don’t think it’ll be quite as high as people think (6y/120M+), but I think it’ll be a 5y/85-90M deal.

    Reply
    • Solaris601

      8 years ago

      Based on the down market for 1B, I think you’re right. If Hosmer were a batting champion, different story. Hosmer will set the 1B market, and Santana will follow right behind.

      1
      Reply
      • CompanyAssassin

        8 years ago

        Yeah, that’s how I figured it.

        Reply
  3. beauvandertulip

    8 years ago

    Yeah, could be a 5/100 wouldn’t surprise me, I’m more on the boat of 4-6 year contract for him.

    1
    Reply
    • JKB 2

      8 years ago

      4-6 years is a big range. If you want to give him 4 then going 6 is way too long

      Reply
  4. ffjsisk

    8 years ago

    7/140 just because he’s 28. Someone will overpay based on age and projected prime/longevity i.e. Heyward.

    4
    Reply
    • southi

      8 years ago

      Let them over pay. I’m fairly certain that they’ll regret it before the end of his contract.

      Reply
      • beauvandertulip

        8 years ago

        They didn’t over pay for EE. I mean yeah he’s older. But holds more offensive value.

        Reply
        • southi

          8 years ago

          Oh the EE signing was actually slightly under what I expected. Very good team friendly value for a consistently above average hitter.

          Reply
    • bluejays12345

      8 years ago

      Yep you are right. He is young-ish

      Reply
  5. Kris Higdon

    8 years ago

    Hosmer’s clubhouse presence and intangibles are more valuable to the Royals than any other team. I absolutely love Hosmer, but other teams aren’t going to pay more his friendship with current Royals.

    How in the heck can his base running metrics not be off the charts? He is one of the smartest base runners in the game. His sprint in Game 5 was an example of what he did every day on the base paths. I can see why the defensive metrics might not be as splashy as he appears on the field, but his base running is exceptional

    3
    Reply
    • AcaciaStrain

      8 years ago

      Well, first he’s not very fast, which matters and secondly he hits into a lot of double plays (which is a part of baserunning).

      2
      Reply
  6. Phillies2017

    8 years ago

    Here’s the thing. The market for first basemen has been poor in recent offseasons and this offseason its very congested (Hosmer, Morrison, Santana, Duda, Moreland, Reynolds, Carter, Alonso).
    Obviously Hosmer gets the most money here, but even with Boras, the leverage really isnt quite there for him to get $100m especially with a QO. I think he signs a 4-yr deal worth around $80m in like January or February that may have an opt-out after 2. Obviously Boras is going to try to hold out, but based on past big contracts to first basemen and Hosmers track record, I believe they’re going to have to settle once they see all the holes being filled by the cheaper guys.
    This year, as with last year, the winning players will sign in November and the winning teams will sign in February. The fact that Boras has been known to hold out might hurt here.
    Using an example
    Last season Kendrys Morales (.795 OPS) signed a 3-year/$33,000,000 deal with the Jays on November 18th. Mark Reynolds (.805 OPS) signed a Minor League Deal that paid him $1.5m with the Rockies on February 2nd. You can cite Coors all you want but a player with an .805 OPS (probably .775 elsewhere) is not worth $31,500,000 less than one with a .795 OPS. Its all about when you sign.

    1
    Reply
    • Coast1

      8 years ago

      Among 1B, Hosmer was 5th in fWAR at 4..1, Morrison 11th at 3.3, Santana 12th at 3.0, and Alonso 15th at 2.4. That’s the big competition. Who is looking for a 1B? The Indians? Porbably. The Red Sox? Maybe. The Rangers? They may play Gallo there. The Rays? Possibly but they don’t pay big. The Angels? Maybe, although they may want Pujols back there. They don’t have a ton The Royals? Maybe, although they might not be looking to add an older player.

      I don’t see the Red Sox willing to go that high on a 1B and the Indians aren’t going to go higher than the $60 million they went on Encarnacion. The market is going to be really limited. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets less than $50 million.

      1
      Reply
      • southi

        8 years ago

        I don’t expect less than $50 million, but I did think less than $75 million for the very reasons that you listed.

        1
        Reply
        • Coast1

          8 years ago

          In today’s market being an infielder who plays one position is going to limit a player unless he’s a superstar like Machado. The problem for guys like Hosmer is they are limited to teams that can afford a top tier 1B and need them. If he’s willing to take $12 million a year there are a lot more suitors than $20 million. Mark Trumbo got 3 years $36 last year. Hosmer is certainly better than him, but they need two bidders to get the price up. If the price is high the Red Sox can turn to Santana or Morrison.

          The Royals showed with Alex Gordon that they’re willing to bid against themselves for their own players. Gordon was expected to get over $100 million. When no market emerged he took $72 million to stay. I think the Royals might give Hosmer more than anyone and that could push him up to $80 million. If they’re not willing it could go under $50 million. I think $50-$75 million is more likely.

          While maybe 5 teams need a starting first baseman, every team needs 5 starting pitchers. So there’ll always be plenty of demand for starters. So they’ll get some good money.

          Reply
  7. baseball10

    8 years ago

    5 guaranteed with 6th yr option/buyout. Between 100-125 mil

    Reply
  8. stepupjays

    8 years ago

    It will be 5 Years 110 million

    Reply
    • kbarr888

      8 years ago

      That’s a ridiculous number for Hosmer. If he gets over 100 M…….it’ll be for 6 years minimum.

      1
      Reply
  9. oldleftylong

    8 years ago

    Giants

    Reply
    • Jean Matrac

      8 years ago

      Why would the Giants sign Hosmer? He’s similar but not quite as good as Belt. The Giant’s bought out one arb year for $4m and got 4 FA years for less than $70m. Hosmer will be more expensive that that. Why pay more for someone not as good?.

      2
      Reply
      • nyy42

        8 years ago

        Belt absolutely stinks! Terrible

        Reply
        • Jeff Todd

          8 years ago

          I genuinely don’t understand why people hold this opinion. He has clearly been a better hitter than Hosmer over their careers. What am I missing?

          3
          Reply
        • OverUnderDone

          8 years ago

          You have to watch Belt play every day. If you put stock in the intangibles, Belt has few. Definitely not a leader or a motivational guy.

          Advanced metrics love him. But his value is inflated by a very high OBP. The guy is an extremely selective hitter. He loves to walk. He absolutely, positively will NOT expand his zone in a RBI situation.

          He is very, very streaky. When hot, he is torrid. When cold, he disappears. And I mean he will be a black hole in the lineup for a month and a half.

          Can’t blame hime for it, but he’s on his fourth concussion, missing the last two months of 2017 to his latest.

          The Giants (dead last in the MLB in virtually every power metric) desperately need Belt to step up and SWING THE BAT. Never going to happen.

          Belt could be a very solid piece on some AL team where he could hide way down in the lineup, 7th or 8th place. He might thrive with very little pressure.

          Ask any Giant fan who he’d prefer at 1st, Belt or Hosmer. It’s not even close.

          4
          Reply
        • cygnus2112

          8 years ago

          Nailed it and a very similar walk friendly profile like Matt Carpenter…

          Reply
        • Coast1

          8 years ago

          Fans have a lot of reasons for liking a player that might not have anything to do with performance. They’d prefer a player who hustles over one who doesn’t, even if the guy who hustles is demonstrably worse. Some don’t like bat flips or streaky hitters.

          Belt has 4 years and $69 million left on his deal. He’s a nice player but not great. As the discussion in this thread should show not many teams need a 1B. Tampa might want him, but are they going to pay a 1B $17 million a year? Will a team give up anything for Belt when they can sign Morrison, Santana, or Alonso for less money and not give up anything?

          There might not be any who are willing to take his whole contract. The Giants could end up paying Hosmer $21 million a year and another $5 million of Belt’s deal. That doesn’t sound better.

          According to Baseball Reference the Giants will have a payroll of $192 million even if they make no changes. That’s in luxury tax territory. They need to make moves where they’re saving money, not spending more.

          Reply
        • jdgoat

          8 years ago

          How do you know he isn’t a leader?

          1
          Reply
        • black69

          8 years ago

          Okay, so Brandon Belt isn’t quite the same type of profile as Hosmer. Maybe you’re right, maybe Hosmer is better. But is his added value enough to justify benching Buster Posey on the days you don’t want him catching? All year, you heard how Posey was having a down year….well, he was worth 4.0 WAR. He played like 40 games at first. He’s played exactly 151 over the last 5 seasons.

          Are you willing to pay Hosmer 20 million over the life of his contract to take his bat out of the lineup for 1 full season?

          Reply
        • Solaris601

          8 years ago

          Couldn’t agree more. I didn’t understand why they extended him at the time, and I understand it even less now. Belt would be a great fit in a team like Tampa, but the Giants are absolutely gonna have to pay down his contract some to get any team to take him UNLESS SF takes on a bad contract in exchange. They might be able to somehow work him into a Stanton deal with Miami.

          Reply
  10. TLB2001

    8 years ago

    If he gets 4/$80m, it’ll be from Kansas City. Only way he walks is if he gets PAID.

    Reply
  11. ilikebaseball 2

    8 years ago

    6/105 and in two years that team will regret it.

    1
    Reply
    • Kris Higdon

      8 years ago

      I hope you guys saying that range are right because if $100-110 million is what he signs for it will be with the Royals.

      Not sure why they would regret signing a 28 year old moving into the prime of his career.

      Reply
      • Jizz Chasholm

        8 years ago

        Because he’s the most inconsistent player in the league. He has never had back to back good seasons

        Reply
  12. luvbeisbol

    8 years ago

    Hosmer’s a nice player, but he’s a first baseman. He’s not that hard to replace. If EE can’t get big bucks, he won’t either. He may end up with a one year pillow contract, for $20M or so, He’s young but no one is going to pay him long term: who wants to own a 35 year old first baseman in decline? Ask Detroit, LA Angels, Orioles, Twins, He’s not as good as Votto or Goldschmidt. The Yankees, of all people, are showing the world how to resist free agents and find inexpensive young players. No thanks.

    Reply
    • kbarr888

      8 years ago

      Agree fully……but would further clarify your point that Hosmer “Is NOTHING Like Votto or Goldy……Not even CLOSE”.

      If anyone suggests that he’s even in the same Tier as those two…..they need medication!……LOL

      1
      Reply
  13. Brixton

    8 years ago

    is “too much” an option?

    3
    Reply
  14. Meatloaf rulz

    8 years ago

    The big factor to me is that he has alway played in a pitchers park, ok, half his games. I do t care what you say but that does play a factor

    3
    Reply
    • Jeff Todd

      8 years ago

      That’s reflected in park-adjusted measures of offensive production. He has a 111 wRC+ for his career (as I noted in the post) and a 135 mark this level.

      3
      Reply
  15. Caseys Partner

    8 years ago

    Four years for $60 million.

    1
    Reply
  16. halos101

    8 years ago

    Has to be around the 100 million mark, but honestly what is the market for him? I don’t see any perfect suitors

    Reply
  17. bbcatt

    8 years ago

    3 years 66 million max. I’d never go longer on a guy who’s approaching age 30. Never.

    Reply
  18. JS11

    8 years ago

    5/75 and lucky to get it

    Reply
  19. gomerhodge71

    8 years ago

    Only topped 20 HRs the past two seasons. Good/Very good but not great. Five years tops. I’m calling 5/90-95.

    Reply
  20. tomahawkin2010

    8 years ago

    Seeing as he is a Boras client, he will be commanding top dollar. He will be presenting to prospective suitors the “Overall production” scenario, which includes Offensive Production, Defensive Metrics, Baserunning Metrics, Clubhouse Leadership Leadership, etc. when he speaks to clubs. I would expect a 4-5 yr deal at $100-$120 package. Someone will pay that, but it will come at a price of a draft pick, as he’s expected to reject the Qualifying Offer.

    Reply
  21. RKinKC

    8 years ago

    I think the Royals will try hard to re-sign Hosmer, and will probably get it done if his AAV stays south of $20 million. They have a new TV contract coming after 2019 and could possibly try to back-load the deal a bit.

    1
    Reply
  22. Paul Miller

    8 years ago

    If Boston wants Hosmer, expect Dombrowski to pay north of $150. Overpaying is what he’s really good at.

    Reply
    • bradthebluefish

      8 years ago

      Dombrowski overpays because Mike Ilitch would always give him the green light to do so. Outside of Price, who else did Dombrowski overpay for in Boston?

      Reply
      • jdgoat

        8 years ago

        He’s also only been around for what, two offseasons? Being happy he’s only given out 1 albatross in two years isn’t all that great

        Reply
        • Paul Miller

          8 years ago

          Given his history of great signings in Detroit like Fielder, Martinez, Sanchez, Cabrera extension, there is still plenty of time for him to do that in Boston. So you’ll see!
          Yes, that’s history but you’re already seeing what he’s doing to the farm system and he’s repeating that in his trader Dave ways.

          Reply
      • Paul Miller

        8 years ago

        Even if it’s just one big signing so far with Boston, it was a massive overpay that was going to look really bad at some point. Unfortunately it happened at year 1 which I don’t fault Dave for that. Everyone thought Price would be Price at least a few years into the contract. But it was a great risk regardless.

        Reply
  23. jqks

    8 years ago

    What I wonder about is how high the Royals will be willing to go to hold on to him. I do not expect they will match bids if they go over $100M, but I do wonder if they would be willing to go as high as 6/100 before stepping away. I think Hos will give the Royals a home-town discount if the Royals are willing to stay within reasonable range of his market.

    I think $100M is an over-pay, but I do like Hos and hell, it ain’t my money. I pretty well hate the whole Glass family and would rather see more of their money in Hos’ account and him at Kauffman for another 5 or 6 years than leave it in Glass’ bank vault.

    2
    Reply
  24. Benklasner

    8 years ago

    I really think he stays in KC and does the whole career with one team thing despite all the Boras talk. That said I think the royals will overpay him.

    Reply
  25. mike156

    8 years ago

    Are we actually going to have a Boras-designed metric for Halo Factor? Is that like hugs-above replacement?

    Reply
  26. 912boy

    8 years ago

    Dayton Moore,Moose to Braves I can smell it coming. If we didn’t have a great first baseman Hosmer could come too

    Reply
    • seanwh01

      8 years ago

      Hoz to KC
      Dayton to Atlanta
      Moose to the Angels
      Done.

      Reply

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Please login to leave a reply.

Log in Register

ad: 300x250_1_MLB

  • Top Stories
  • Recent

Cubs To Promote Moises Ballesteros

Evan Longoria To Sign One-Day Contract, Retire As Member Of Rays

Diamondbacks To Promote Jordan Lawlar

Rockies Fire Bud Black

Cubs Promote Cade Horton

Rafael Devers Unwilling To Play First Base

Pirates Fire Manager Derek Shelton

Mariners Claim Leody Taveras

Rangers Hire Bret Boone As Hitting Coach

A.J. Minter To Undergo Season-Ending Lat Surgery

Blue Jays Sign Spencer Turnbull

Blue Jays Sign José Ureña

Ross Stripling Retires

Rangers Place Leody Taveras On Outright Waivers

Triston Casas Likely To Miss Entire 2025 Season Due To Knee Surgery

Orioles Recall Coby Mayo

Dodgers Recall Hyeseong Kim

Triston Casas Suffers “Significant Knee Injury”

Angels Place Mike Trout On 10-Day Injured List

Rangers Option Jake Burger

Cubs To Promote Moises Ballesteros

Padres’ Jhony Brito Underwent UCL Surgery

A’s Return Rule 5 Pick Noah Murdock To Royals

Yankees Notes: LeMahieu, Infield, Gil

White Sox Outright Nick Maton

Brandon Bielak Undergoes Season-Ending Shoulder Surgery

Brandon Woodruff Pulled Off Rehab Assignment Due To Ankle Injury

Blue Jays Outright Dillon Tate

Ronald Acuña Jr. To Begin Rehab Assignment

Dodgers Acquire Steward Berroa

ad: 300x250_5_side_mlb

MLBTR Newsletter - Hot stove highlights in your inbox, five days a week

Latest Rumors & News

Latest Rumors & News

  • 2024-25 Top 50 MLB Free Agents With Predictions
  • Nolan Arenado Rumors
  • Dylan Cease Rumors
  • Luis Robert Rumors
  • Marcus Stroman Rumors

 

Trade Rumors App for iOS and Android

MLBTR Features

MLBTR Features

  • Remove Ads, Support Our Writers
  • Front Office Originals
  • Front Office Fantasy Baseball
  • MLBTR Podcast
  • 2024-25 Offseason Outlook Series
  • 2025 Arbitration Projections
  • 2024-25 MLB Free Agent List
  • 2025-26 MLB Free Agent List
  • Contract Tracker
  • Transaction Tracker
  • Extension Tracker
  • Agency Database
  • MLBTR On Twitter
  • MLBTR On Facebook
  • Team Facebook Pages
  • How To Set Up Notifications For Breaking News
  • Hoops Rumors
  • Pro Football Rumors
  • Pro Hockey Rumors

Rumors By Team

  • Angels Rumors
  • Astros Rumors
  • Athletics Rumors
  • Blue Jays Rumors
  • Braves Rumors
  • Brewers Rumors
  • Cardinals Rumors
  • Cubs Rumors
  • Diamondbacks Rumors
  • Dodgers Rumors
  • Giants Rumors
  • Guardians Rumors
  • Mariners Rumors
  • Marlins Rumors
  • Mets Rumors
  • Nationals Rumors
  • Orioles Rumors
  • Padres Rumors
  • Phillies Rumors
  • Pirates Rumors
  • Rangers Rumors
  • Rays Rumors
  • Red Sox Rumors
  • Reds Rumors
  • Rockies Rumors
  • Royals Rumors
  • Tigers Rumors
  • Twins Rumors
  • White Sox Rumors
  • Yankees Rumors

ad: 160x600_MLB

Navigation

  • Sitemap
  • Archives
  • RSS/Twitter Feeds By Team

MLBTR INFO

  • Advertise
  • About
  • Commenting Policy
  • Privacy Policy

Connect

  • Contact Us
  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • RSS Feed

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

hide arrows scroll to top

Register

Desktop Version | Switch To Mobile Version