It goes without saying that the Nationals’ 2017 season ended in bitter disappointment, as the organization once again failed to make it out of the NLDS despite cruising to its fourth NL East title in the past six campaigns. The exit, in a wild and mistake-filled Game 5 loss, was yet stranger and more baffling than the previous ones — which, surely, is saying something.
While manager Dusty Baker has received quite a lot of criticism, both this year and in the past, he clearly did not deserve all the blame. Despite some questionable high-leverage personnel moves — everyone’s favorite area to nitpick — Baker was not the direct cause of the major on-field failures that led to the Nats’ demise. And he has also guided the club successfully over the course of the regular season, particularly in light of the disarray that existed when he took over following the inglorious exit of Matt Williams. At the same time, Baker obviously hasn’t yet guided the Nationals out of their postseason malaise, continuing his own uninspiring track record in October.
Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post discusses some key considerations at play regarding Baker. Of particular note: there was at least some level of discord between the skipper and club ownership over the way mid-season extension talks played out. That certainly follows a hard-to-deny trend of managerial tensions over the years. At the same time, there’s a need to chart a course for a critical offseason and 2018 campaign — rather than allowing any uncertainty to linger — while also perhaps attempting to find some stability in the dugout for the first time since the franchise landed in D.C. You’ll certainly want to give Svrluga’s piece a full read for all the nuance at play here.
No matter what, it seems prudent for the team to act relatively quickly and decisively. Making a change away from Baker would be a decision fraught with risk, including from inside the clubhouse. Negotiating with him may or may not be straightforward, and itself comes with some risk of a collapse (given the track record of ownership with managerial dealings). Several other teams are already deep into searches for new skippers, which could take several possible alternatives off the table.
Needless to say, there are many variables still at play. But the essential question remains whether the Nationals wish to retain Baker. Should they?
Definitely not
I’d keep him one more year. Harper’s gone after 18’ and then they’ll probably blow up the whole thing and bring in someone new.
They won’t blow up the whole thing when they have quality young players like rendin, turner, eaton, stras and good veterans in Murphy max. They will most likely offer him the qo let him walk and call up Robles to play cf and move eaton to rf. Baker is an awful manager.
He should be fired. He can’t get over the play off hump partially due to his poor management of pitching staff. The roster isn’t the problem.
The last manager couldn’t either…I’ve said this before but the Nats are the Braves of early 2000s. They absolutely dominate regular season only to get bounced first round of playoffs every year. Not sure if it’s always the manager when the roster is loaded, talent has to show up when it truly matters
It’s my belief that at least part of the manager’s job is to know how to motivate his players and get them prepared for whatever they’re up against.
I know that dynamic is difficult today because of all the prima donnas getting paid billions of dollars to play baseball and they think they know everything and that nobody can tell them what to do.
I don’t believe Dusty has that skill
It’s nice that you just cherry pick the 4 straight NLDS exits. The Braves won 11 straight division titles, went to 3 WS, 3 NLCS, and had 5 NLDS exits. The Nats have only won 2 straight divisions with 2 NLDS exts. Part of their problem is that they seemingly change managers every couple of years.
This guy has posted that on at least 2-3 Nats articles.
And that makes it untrue?
Yup, I tease my friends in DC. i tell them to do the chop.
Is it Dusty’s fault that the whole offense struggled in the postseason
Yes. He has a consistent track record of not getting his teams as far as they should go.
no hitter through 6 innings and lost in 2 NLDS games. but pitching was it for sure…
@bigjonliljon Werth let a routine play fly right past his mitt, whose fault is that, Dusty’s? Dusty Baker didn’t make the errors.
I feel like the nats really need a younger, energetic manager to rebrand their identity a bit. Some heat against Dusty warranted, some not. Either way, I don’t think he’s the answer. Though I do agree a bit with senioreditor–maybe you keep him one more year before Harper’s likely departure figuratively rebrands the team anyway. He did lead the team through a killer regular season. Not an easy call.
Dusty seems to be a guy who players enjoy having around. The Nationals seemed to have an edge about them during his time there.
But he seems to be out of his depth when making tough decisions. Perhaps delegating responsibilities, or having him answer to a GM/assistant would be a better move on tough decisions such as who to start, when to bring pitchers in, etc.
But I think the Nationals are a far worse team without Baker at the head.
The Nats need a GM and owner willing to actually go all in on a team. That they willfully went to the playoffs with this joke of a bullpen is not acceptable.
But I’m a Mets fan so I don’t mind at all.
Try to look past the narrative. The pen was awful in the first half, but they traded for three very good relievers at the deadline and mostly got quality relief performances in the NLDS. (Also they offered loads of money to Kenley Jansen last winter.)
Lots of deferred money is what they offered. Not the same thing.
So if someone offered to pay you $1 million a year for the next 20 years, you would turn that down for an offer that would pay you $15 million right then and there? Money is money. Personally, I’d always jump at the offer that offers more long term security, even if it means less money in the short term. Jansen may have refused an offer of more money from the Nats, but I don’t think it had to do with some of it being deferred. It more likely boiled down to Jansen wanting to stay with the Dodgers.
That sort of depends on how well-off you are. Annual inflation differences aside, $1MM for 20 years has different tax considerations as well as different expense considerations.
Yes I would, because the latter offer of 15 mil up front is objectively worth more.
Timing matters for money. The quicker you get it the quicker you can invest it or derive benefit from it.
It was still lots of money. Whether or not it was truly “more” than the Dodgers’ offer, we don’t know, since we don’t know exactly what the structure was. And you have to make discount-rate assumptions to calculate any present value.
Regardless, there’s no dispute that they offered a huge sum to sign a top closer. It’s not like it was an NFL phantom (non-guaranteed) salary situation or something.
They say a “mystery team” offered Chapman $92MM before he signed with the Yankees for $86MM.
It couldn’t have been the Marlins, their final offer was $87MM, +multiple opt outs.
My money’s on the Nats. Credit to them for keeping the whole thing under wraps in this day and age, but remember purely speculative on my part. We’ll never know who offered the $92MM.
How have they not gone all in? They traded away so many young players to get guys that can help them win now. Doolittle, Madson, Eaton, Melancon, Kendrick ect. They have the team but for some reason they just cant finish the job
Technically if they’re going to go all in they need to sign Harper to an extension…… offering 5/140 and see what happens
5/140??? More 5/200 and hope they don’t get outbid by some silly club willing to go 7/280 or above.
They could offer the moon and he’s not gonna sign!
I think Oakland would sign Harper if he was willing to take that little amount
You are a Mets fan who doesnt watch any baseball considering Nats bullpen was one of the better ones in second half after Mike Rizzo remade it at the trade deadline.
He should be fired but I voted that hedge should be retained only because I don’t want the Mets to offer him the job
They should let him go. Dusty is a checkers man, in a Chess world these days. Particularly in the playoffs. Time to go young in DC, totally overhaul the culture.
Best post yet…
Yes if you’re a fan of any of the other teams, especially other playoff teams. It’s almost like a 1st round bye.
I defended him a ton in Cincinnati before the Reds fired him, but if he can’t get it done with that roster he can’t get it done. Period.
Not disagreeing, exactly, but how much control do managers really have over performance?
Managers should have a decent amount of influence over motivation. The manager can’t swing the bat for the players but he can put them in a position to swing a better bat by raising the level of camaraderie on the team. Creating that excitement among a bunch of millionaire baseball players is probably not easy….. but that’s what he gets paid for.
Haha is this a serious question. Said it as soon as he was hired they would never win it while he was there and they are going to waste their entire window away with him still there
What a bold prediction that one of 29 other teams would win the world series…
Wasted window? Thats as laughable as people seriously saying the 2012 team has anything to do with 2017 team.
Does Scott Boras represent any managerial candidates?
Dusty is worthy of another year.. They had several injuries down the stretch and it restricted some of their flexibility .. I think you 2nd guess most managers when the season came to an end.. he didn’t place Bartman in his seat… Bumgarner and Posey put Giants over the top not Boch…
Bartman didn’t cost them that series.
Gonzalez should have started that double play easily on the next pitch.
Boch would have these nats in the WS last 2 years if he was managing. Posey and Bum are both hall of fame players. They are a real big part of why the Giants won theirs 3 WS. But Boch was also there and making all the right calls. Remember Yasmiro Petit against the Nats in the playoffs in 2014. That’s all boch calling the game correctly. Also Boch will be a Hall of Fame manager.
Tough question. The Nationals have one more huge window of opportunity for a World Series title with Bryce Harper on board before he becomes a free agent following the 2018 season.
Would 67-year old Dusty Baker accept a one year extension with the Nationals?
Who might the Nationals hire this offseason with the possibility that they may change their direction following the upcoming season?
Will current GM and President of Baseball Operations Mike Rizzo still be in charge after the upcoming season?
let rusty dusty baker go and bring in john Farrell. at least hes won a ws.,
IF you don’t like Dusty Baker, then you definitely will not like Farrell.
Nats should absolutely move on. Two early playoff exits? Not good enough. The right move would be bringing in John Farrell. His time in Boston showed he knows how to win (World Series Champion, Three time division winner). He also showed how well he works with young guys (Developed Mookie, JBJ, Benentendi, Devers, Swihart, E-rod). To top it off, he ranked top 5 in the league in challenges overturned percentage (COP). Give him the job.
JBJ is inconsistent, ERod isn’t anywhere close to his ceiling, and Swihart is terrible.
And the “COP” stat you mentioned speaks more to the umpiring of his games rather than his own judgement
And/or the effectiveness of the Boston replay booth staff.
JBJ is inconsistent, i’ll give you that. E-rod not being at his ceiling has nothing to do with Farrell, he has just battled injuries the last 2 year. Swihart is one of the best catching prospects in the game, will probably be the best hitting catcher at one point in his career.
COP is maybe the second most important thing to look at when hiring a manager (after record). A high COP shows a manager has a high awareness for what is happening on the field.
I see you didn’t make a point against Farrells success. Is that maybe because there is nothing in Farrell’s record that points to him being a bad manager?
Don’t be fooled by the fact he won a world series. That team was pretty stacked with veterans and they still had an ace in Lester, Lackey, C. Buchholz (who was lights out) and a lights out bullpen with Tazawa,Breslow, A. Bailey, A. Miller and K. Uehara. Shame Victorino had a comeback for the ages,, Ellsbury was still in his prime, Gomes owned left handed pitching and Daniel Nava had a career year owning Right handed pitching.. Stephen Drew as a defensive wiz and could HIT and you had the Ortiz, Pedroia, Napoli, and S. Salty. That team had so much leadership and veteran experience and career years from a few players. That it was no surprise they dominated the World Series. What happened with Farrell when all the guys left and they brought up the kids? 2 straight last place finishes.
I’ve never been a big fan of Dusty’s “us against the world” style of managing. That said, I do believe they should retain him. Name.me a better veteran skipper who’s available right now anyway?
Dusty is a good manager even with his ancient ways. Otherwise, he wouldn’t have had the success he has had all these years – at least in the regular season. I think he deserves one more year. He may want more than that though and they may not come to an agreement because of it. In-game strategy is not the whole ball of wax. At least he didn’t let his freak flag fly like a certain manager who shall remain nameless until his team is officially eliminated this postseason.
He got the team to the playoffs just fine, and managed Game 5 in an aggressive and intelligent manner. However, his team utterly imploded and lost the game. I have no idea why he deserves the blame. He’s a good manager who is unfairly criticized for things (Prior’s arm!) that make good sound bites
Word! And Verlander just threw 120 some pitches for the Stros. Next they’ll be blaming Dusty for his overuse!?
Wasn’t Baker’s fault for Prior.
Now, is he better now than he used to be, I’m sure he is as one could say for any manager.
I’d criticize Joe Madden two seasons in a row. #1, Chapman last year and #2, Lackey pitching to JT in a tie ballgame. This is the playoffs not the regular season. You have to use your closer late in a tie ballgame when you’re trying to win 4 of 7 games!? What are you saving him for next year!?
They didn’t win cause Scherzer gave that ridiculous speech after they captured the East Crown. A team that mentally peaks in the regular season won’t succeed in the play-offs. Its a division crown in a weak division and he acted like they just defeated Chitauri invaders.
Good point
I voted yes, but I’m a Mets fan .
Fan 1: If they let Dusty go, they should hire Gabe Kapler.
Fan 2: Yeah, Gabe would be an entertaining choice; he was great on “Welcome Back, Kotter.”
Up your nose with a rubber hose.
Mangement’s response to a postseason failure is nearly always to fire the team’s manager. Oddly, ownership and the front office are never to blame. I’m still waiting for one of them to fire themselves.
He’s horrible
Hes had 4 great chances to take a team some place and he is a choke artist
I live in cincy. He was absolutely brutal with a WS rotation and bullpen
@jcraft21 Did you see Dusty Baker miss a routine fly ball that flew straight past him to the fence and scored runssssss for the Chicago Cubs when Russell was batting. Dusty Baker needs to do better with his play in left field and he needs to be more disciplined at the plate with runners in scoring position.
Where is the selection for GAWD NO !!!
” . . . whether the Nationals wish to retain Baker. Should they?”
Trick question. Who’s his replacement? Can’t answer your question until you answer mine.
They should replace him if they know of and are willing to pay someone who will bring a more modern approach to lineup construction, pitcher usage and the like while maintaining a positive clubhouse dynamic.
They should not replace him if A) the next manager brings no real additional skills to the dance, B) if they aren’t prepared to pay the going rate for said skills, or C) if said manager may disrupt team harmony.
In short, this is not a situation which calls for change just for the sake of change and it’s also difficult to argue that Dusty deserves to lose his job. The Nats won their division both years he managed, he hasn’t caused the organization any trouble on or off field, and the players appear to like him a lot. It appears that, with the exception of postseason success, Dusty has done everything he was brought in to do.
The real question is whether the Nats are willing to pay him the going rate. When he was hired he referred to his salary as “half-pay”, and suggested that he would be looking for full pay the next deal. The Nats believe that if you get to the postseason dance often enough you will win it all eventually. Dusty, for better and worse, has fit in well with this approach–which is why I expect him to be back.
Should a poll online really be the way to go about this. I mean everything here posted here is all opinion. Noone knows whats going on internally. I bet if the 25 players in that clubhouse like playing for Dusty, hes staying.
Poll (verb): to record the opinion or vote of
It gives the site another post to boost some ad clicks, if nothing else. Although I personally have what’s probably the best ad blocker available and haven’t seen a single ad in this website since I downloaded it, I’m all for them making a little more money by putting up more posts and getting a few clicks.
They need somebody that understands and accepts that sabermetrics is all that matters in today’s game. Can Dusty Baker calculate WAR in his head? If not, time to move on.
Name me 5 managers in baseball who can “calculate WAR in his head.”
This is why we’ll see robot/computer managers soon. I’m only half kidding. Why spend $4 million per year on some old fossils?
The point still stands. Sabermetrics…or the highway.
Ask the Nats think if they’d rather have Matt Williams or Dusty Baker!?
I hope the Nats do let him go and hope the Mets pick him up.
No, you’re completely wrong about sabermetrics, and just ask Joe Maddon or Dave Roberts or Joe Girardi if they’re managing games via sabermetrics. What absolute rubbish.
Nope. Nats were good before Baker and will be without him.
As when they had Matt Williams?
Larussa is available
A Giants fan once told me he is the worst manager in baseball.
I’m not seeing where this is even close!? Dusty Baker is not the reason the Nats aren’t advancing. Their offense which is near the top in the NL every year doesn’t perform in the playoffs.
It’s either because injuries or coming off of them or whatever. I’m certainly not complaining about what the Nats pick up in preparation for the playoffs but all these playoff teams go out and grab everything they can.
Look at the Cubs. A #2 or 3 starter, bunch of bullpen again this year. Stack away.
The Nats certainly made their moves but not like most of the playoff teams and believe me, I don’t care to see them win as a Mets fan, but you have to notice the roster differences.
What about Rendon trying to double up Bryant late in the game down a couple runs? Bench should have told him to come to plate on ground ball right at him to cut down the run. What was the final score? 9-8. If they had cut down that run, they may have won the game. That is a run credited to the bench, can’t say anything about the other 8 that scored.
Yeah I’m not seeing that as a bench issue… Rendon has probably been playing since he was 5 and professionally for at least 5. That’s more of a mental mistake or just poor judgment.
If he was 15, you listen for your coaches. When you’re 25 and in a game with 40k screaming fans, you have to know what the situation calls for. You don’t have time or the ears to listen.
But I do understand your point. I just have to blame the player there.
you could pick a ton of things in that game and say “if they had got that out then…” mine would be Werth in the outfield.
Agreed. I personally think the Nats are run well including Dusty, and I’m a Mets fan.
I honestly thought they would win the WS this year. Strasburg and Scherzer in a short series, finally what appeared to be a healthy lineup, and I thought they did well on the bullpen pieces they picked up.
So much of the playoffs seems to be who’s hot at the moment…
^ that’s church right there.
NATS are overrated like the Dodgers spend big on free absents and trade for good player and still don’t make World Series there jokes of all trades lol
Dodgers are up 3-0 on the Cubs, man
How is that overrated? With all due respect to the Cubs, this is looking to be a Dodgers/‘Stros or Dodgers/Yanks World series.
Never say never and Maddon did come back from being down 3-1 in the WS last year.. against the one manager who came back down 0-3..
Baseball’s funny like that.
Anyways, stop living in the past. I don’t remember the last time, Dodgers were this close to the WS game.
It was 1988. The closest they’ve been since then was last year, up 2-1 in the NLCS against the Cubs. These aren’t last year’s Dodgers or last year’s Cubs.
BTW I was at Game 2.