There are more than 200 players that are eligible for salary arbitration this offseason, and the deadline to tender each of these players a contract for the 2017 season is Friday at 8pm ET. That shouldn’t be confused with actually signing the player at a given rate for the 2018 season; Friday’s deadline is merely the deadline to inform arbitration-eligible players that they will or won’t receive a contract. The two parties will have another roughly two months to work out salaries before arbitration hearings (if necessary) kick off in February.
As we do each year at MLBTR, we’re providing a list of players whose teams could potentially elect not to tender them a contract, thus sending them into the free-agent pool earlier than expected. It should be emphasized that we’re not indicating that each of these players is likely to be non-tendered (though that’s certainly the case with some of them). Typically, we list any player for which we can envision a 10-20 percent chance of a non-tender.
It should be noted that many of the borderline non-tender candidates below will be traded this week rather than simply cut loose. Other borderline candidates may be presented with an offer that is notably lower than their projections and could accept the “take it or leave it” ultimatum rather than being non-tendered.
I’ve broken the list down by division and included each candidate’s projected salary from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz in parentheses as a point of reference. For a full list of each team’s arb-eligible players, you can check out Matt’s team-by-team arbitration projections.
American League West
- Angels: Blake Wood ($2.2MM), C.J. Cron ($2.8MM)
- Astros: Evan Gattis ($6.6MM), Mike Fiers ($5.7MM)
- Athletics: Chris Hatcher ($2.2MM), Josh Phegley ($1.1MM)
- Mariners: Drew Smyly ($6.85MM), Andrew Romine ($1.9MM)
- Rangers: A.J. Griffin ($3.0MM), Nick Martinez ($2.0MM)
American League Central
- Indians: Abraham Almonte ($1.1MM)
- Royals: Mike Morin ($700K)
- Tigers: Bruce Rondon ($1.2MM), Alex Wilson ($2.1MM)
- Twins: None
- White Sox: Al Alburquerque ($1.1MM), Zach Putnam ($1.4MM), Jake Petricka ($1.1MM), Danny Farquhar ($1.5MM)
American League East
- Blue Jays: Tom Koehler ($6.0MM), Ryan Goins ($1.8MM)
- Orioles: None
- Rays: Adeiny Hechavarria ($5.0MM), Jesus Sucre ($1.3MM), Brad Miller ($4.4MM)
- Red Sox: Brock Holt ($2.0MM), Sandy Leon ($2.1MM)
- Yankees: Austin Romine ($1.2MM)
National League West
- Diamondbacks: T.J. McFarland ($1.0MM), Chris Herrmann ($1.4MM), J.J. Hoover ($1.6MM)
- Dodgers: None
- Giants: None
- Rockies: Zac Rosscup ($600K)
- Padres: None
National League Central
- Brewers: Jeremy Jeffress ($2.6MM), Stephen Vogt ($3.9MM), Hernan Perez ($2.2MM)
- Cardinals: None
- Cubs: Hector Rondon ($6.2MM), Justin Grimm ($2.4MM)
- Pirates: Jordy Mercer ($6.5MM)
- Reds: None
National League East
- Braves: Danny Santana ($1.1MM), Matt Adams ($4.6MM), Jace Peterson ($1.1MM)
- Marlins: None
- Mets: None
- Nationals: None
- Phillies: None
No chance of a non-tender on Galvis? I know they have the money but $7.4 Is a lot for a glove only player on a team flush with middle INF prospects
Doubtful, more likely to get rid of Joseph or Franco
Franco???
Maikel Franco???
You’re Joking…….Right? You have to be…..LOL
I’m not even a Phillies Fan, and I know that Franco is a future stud (or at least has the potential to be one). You don’t “non-tender” a player like that. If you’ve soured on him, you trade him to someone who hasn’t.
The Cardinals would trade for Franco in a minute. So would the Mets. The Pirates might try too. So many options there…..
I agree that you don’t non-tender him, especially as a rebuilding club, but I think you’re way overvaluing Franco at this point. He’s an awful defensive third baseman with a slash line of .242/.294/.418 in a hitter-friendly park over the past two years. Beyond the fact that he used to be a well-regarded prospect and is still only 25, he’s really got very little going for him right now. I don’t see any way that a contender (i.e. St. Louis) would even consider trading for him at this point
Citizens Bank Park is a neutral park overall, but otherwise agree.
Yankees will take him for Jake Cave….
Franco is not a “future stud” lol the dude is awful at baseball
Seems to me he has turned into a pretty important guy for stability. Just played all 162 games, etc. They will be young basically everywhere, barring other moves, so I don’t think they’ll just cut him loose.
Crawford doesn’t look quite ready to take over full time at SS…..and Galvis has been reasonably solid for them.
He shouldn’t be non-tendered, but he might be trade bait in a deal with San Diego?
Crawford looks ready to me. The Phils can certainly afford to pay Galvis $7-8 mil even in a utility role, but lots can happen between now and opening day, including trading Hernandez and having Galvis man 2B until Kingery comes up.
First of all, its his last year of arbitration before free agency, which makes him a good candidate to be traded at mid-season. Why just dump him instead of paying him half a year and getting something back for him?
I’m also not sure where you get the idea that his salary will jump from $4..75 to$7..4 million in one year. Other players with those offensive numbers do not necessarily make that much.. That said, 32 HRs in two seasons is hardly a glove only player. He improved his OBP last year and cut down on his strike outs, and that seems to have cost him some power. He is in his prime and its plausible that he could put it together this season and maintain last year’s OBP and K rate while getting back some of the HR power he showed in 2016. That plus his glove (and speed) would justify the $5.5 to $6 million he is likely to make, especially since they have tons of money sitting on the sidelines..
That’s his arbitration number
Hernon Perez will not be non tendered by Milwaukee
I agree. I like him. If he gets his OBP up, he can literally play anywhere. 20hr/30sb threat.
I added him, so you can direct that critique to me. But … with Sogard back, Villar around, and the possibility of finding a steady second baseman, I think it’s possible. Could be wrong, but as noted in the text, we are looking at fairly low likelihoods but reasonable plausibility.
Carlos Torres was outrighted off the 40 in November.
Ah that’s right, thanks.
No chance Astros don’t keep Gattis. What was the reasoning Steve?
He’s always been considered a non tender candidate. He’s just not special as a DH and isn’t a good enough catcher. I think it’s a safe bet he stays, but a non tender at least makes sense on paper.
If they decide he really isn’t a part of the picture behind the plate, they can do more for less or look to get a much better hitter as a primary DH. As we emphasized, though, we aren’t predicting that’ll occur, just saying it seems plausible.
I dont see Gattis being dropped but he could be a good trade chip. Nats could use a 2nd catcher who can hit. Can he still catch at all? Or is he like done defensively?
Gattis can catch and hit. In 2016, he hit 32 home runs when he played 130 games, mostly as DH, and when he played at catcher was very steady behind the plate, In 2017, he had injuries, only played 80 games and hit 12 HRs and his bat and glove work was not as good as 2016 I think primarily due to the injuries. I don’t think there was any drop-off in talent. My guess is he will hit close to 30 HRs again if he plays a full season, and he is a clutch player. I don’t see the Astros non-tendering him – for a $6M paycheck you can’t find a better DH. With Mike Fiers, it is a possibility, and more likely he will be traded.
I think the Astros keep Fiers. He lead the team in innings last year. He’s not that good, but he eats innings, and $6M is hardly that much.
I think the NT to Gattis is all about Lucroy. Personally, I’d rather keep Gattis.
The Athletics already extended Smolinski.
Yeah I screwed that up – I added him and totally missed the news there.
They avoided arbitration with him, rather than an extension, fwiw.
I mean Gattis was already supposed to be primary DH, but nah non-tender. Not happening
I hope that the Cubs can find a trade partner for Rondon. He should have never been removed from closer. He put up solid numbers as a closer and later got removed because Madden wouldn’t trust him. If he got a fresh start I don’t see why he couldn’t get back to his original form.
You’re saying you would rather have had Rondon at closer than Chapman or Davis?
He was removed for Aroldis Chapman
He suddenly became pretty “Homer-Prone”…….I think he’s been a lot less effective since his stint on the DL. Something’s up with that.
Look at his stats year-to-year. Sudden jump in 2017.
If the Cubs get value in exchange for Rondon, he’s likely gone. Probably wouldn’t need to be much of a value.
Brad Miller definitely needs to be non-tendered. Cement glove like Daniel Murphy without the bat to make up for it.
It always baffled me why the Rays decided to trade Beckham and stick with Miller when Adeiny came to Tampa
According to the beat writer of the area, some coaches, staff, and media people didn’t like how he acted around them. Players like Longoria and Cobb publicly complemented him and questioned the move.
I know this has nothing to do with non-tenders but when will the Dodgers Offseason Outlook come out Jeff
It is close. Probably tomorrow.
So why would the rays nontender sucre and hechavaria i dont see a reason they both played great in their roles? Miller is obvious cause his overall lack of contribution to a team when they needed it the most
Hech is gonna cost over 6 million, which is expensive for a glove only player, but I would rather see him stay over Miller for sure. You’re right about Sucre, they don’t have any catcher depth, so hard to see him let go.
Carlos Torres shouldn’t be on this list. He was outrighted to the minors on Nov 3 and has the right to declare free agency. If he does, he makes his own deal and does not go to arb. If he does not declare, he stays with Milwaukee on a minor league contract. Again, no arbitration.
“I’ve broken the list down by division and included each candidate’s projected salary from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz in parentheses “
Unless I’m looking in all the wrong places I don’t see the salary projections. Is this me or you?
It’s all in Steve’s head, rest assured. I will add them.
Interesting dilemma for the White Sox with all four of their potential non-tenders being veteran relievers which is a weak spot for them heading into the offseason but more easily fixed in the short term. If they do choose to non-tender some of these pitchers at the Friday deadline there will some White Sox fans upset that they just didn’t DFA them prior to last Monday’s Rule 5 deadline when they could have protected eligible prospects like LHP Jordan Guerrero, RHP Luis Martinez and INF Jake Peters.
Given the number of really marginal players on the Sox 40 man roster (Covey, May, Hansen and W. Garcia immediately come to mind), I was surprised that the White Sox didn’t protect the prospects you list as Hansen and W. Garcia would have just sailed through waivers and been assigned to Charlotte or cut loose. Sox don’t have any place on the projected 25 man roster for Peters though (pun.ch and judy utility infielder).
I would recommend Covey and Hansen. Can not stand watching Covey pitch!
Even if they do trim some of these players, they would need to fill their roster spots eventually. The issue with the Rule 5 is you can’t just load up your 40-man because there’s also a big risk in adding guys too soon. Then you end up having to expose them to waivers if you need that roster spot back.
The White Sox have a lot of deadweight on their 40-man roster aside from these non-tender candidates that they could easily launch. A rebuilding team with the #1 farm system in MLB ought to consider protecting all of their top-30 prospects who were eligible for the Rule 5 Draft. They chose to add 5 of those 8 and have left the three I mentioned exposed to the process at the close of the winter meetings. Of course, it’s possible none will be selected and never become useful MLB players, but why take that risk?
I totally agree with you. I don’t think that Hansen, W. Garcia or Putnam (who will miss all or most of next season due to TJ surgery), have any trade value whereas young top 30 rated prospects always do. I suspect that the reason for hanging on to Hansen and W. Garcia though may be in anticipation of Avi Garcia being traded this offseason. I would love the Sox to a flyer on Adam Eithier on a short term incentive laden deal too; gotta keep some veterans around. That one current open roster spot though if I assume for the Rule V draft.
Don’t see Sandy Leon as a non tender. his bat might have sort of returned to pre 16 norms, but his defense and arm are well above average and the organization has nothing, other than out of options Swihart ATM as a backup to Vazquez.
imagine many teams around the league would love to have a glove man like Leon if he were to be non tendered and 2.1m isn’t that much as far as MLB salaries go for what he does.
I see a bosox and Nats trade involving a catcher coming in the near future
I strongly disagree with all 3 of the brewers, Josh Phegley, Brock Holt, CJ Cron, and Adeiny Hechavarria. I think all 7 of those players will be tendered
What he said
Cron isn’t expensive either. Do the Angels have a roster crunch? He seems useful to them.
Cron wasn’t particularly good last year; considering his defense at first isn’t anything special, and they have Pujols entrenched at DH, first seems like a place for an upgrade
But do you strongly disagree that any are plausible candidates? The Brewers have a fully loaded 40-man roster and seem likely to add a few players. Phegley, Holt, and Cron are situations where the team could decide it can do better by exploring the market and just doesn’t want to lock into that player. The Rays may not want to pay Hechavarria with limited SS demand on the market and a few other possibilities out there. (Similarly, the Pirates could NT Mercer. Both are also the types of players that could be presented with take-it-or-leave-it offers before the deadline.)
Viillar is a much more likely non-tender than is Perez or Jeffress or even Vogt., Perez is a proven asset as a super utility guy and a candidate to be starter at 2B along with Sogard.. I don’t think Villar has any role on the team so if he can’t be dealt, he’ll certainly be non-tendered. Jeffress is one year removed from being their closer and is a relative bargain. They like Vogt despite his throwing issues.
Idk Holt kind of sucks, and Vogt and Hech are expensive
Vogt had 8 HR in 122 AB”s for Brewers and was a huge positive in the clubhouse.. The Brewers don’t have a viable alternative to share time at catcher with Pina. They’d love a LH bat in that role and Vogt is cheaper than signing an Alex Avila, though that’s possibility too.
Angels are in a bit of pickly situation with Cron. On the one hand, he is basically a replacement level player on average: at 1b at best and it is no secret that upgrade at 1b is one of their objectives. But Angels have no internal option at 1b–especially if they are committed to putting Valbuena at 3b as has been reported. Even though 1b FA’s are somewhat plentiful, it’d be risky to leave no 1b candidate in house. Besides, 1b upgrade is not their top priority–2b is. Seems at under 3m for a serviceable 1b is not too bad as an insurance policy just in case.
There is like a 1% chance the Yankees non-tender Romine. They wouldn’t even non-tender him if they brought in a number two catcher to play ahead of him, say if they brought Brian McCann back somehow or something.
Shreve is more of a non-tender candidate, though I’m not sure if even he hits the 10% threshold.
Given the lack of depth up the middle, the jays will definitely tender goins , he’s a enjoy to watch defensively and his bat is okay, he came up clutch a ton last year too
I agree with that. I also see Danny Santana in Atl as someone who could fit nicely in Tor, so hopefully the Braves non tender him, or the Jays can get him for a lower level prospect. That would give the Jays a solid backup infielder in Goins and a switch hitting utility man in Santana.
Goins is atrocious. He has the 3rd worst OBP of any LHH in the history of the game and he was a negative DRS at SS. He is overrated defensively in a big way. He is a negative WAR player who isn’t even replacement level and is vastly overrated by the Toronto fan base. Also, his luck with RISP is not sustainable as he was a career .250 hitter with RISP. I hope they non tender him, he sucks.
Atkins talked about how he wanted to find a new reserve middle infielder this off-season on a recent interview, and I don’t think he mentioned Goins once, so I imagine he’s gone. Plus, he’s worse than you make him out to be, especially offensively
Why isn”t Trayce Thompson of the Dodgers on this list? I can’t think of any arbitration eligible player who stunk it up worse last season.
Trayce isn’t arb eligible. I’m pretty sure he will be next year though. Cause he only spent half a season with the chi Sox, and two years with the dodgers. That would almost make him super two eligible, but he’s not, plus, the dodgers sent him down a few times. So his service time I’m guessing is around 2 years. A little less or a little more. Who cares, I think many people believe he has a high ceiling, and why wouldn’t the dodgers who didn’t care about their spending, non tender a player like that?
Thanks for the information.; I find the whole roster process at times to be confusing with accurate information sometimes hard to find. Thompson I did read is out of minor league options, so if he doesn’t make the 25 man opening day roster he would have to be exposed to waivers, right? As for his upside, don’t let his family surname fool you; now that the league has the book on him, he flat out can’t hit left handed pitching (.080 last year and .219 in 2016).
The only reason they’d cut him is if he’s out of options. Even then, a trade would be more likely
According to a link provided in the original blog here, Thompson is out of options. Stanton gets traded to the Dodgers, odds I think are pretty good he’s not going to make the opening day 25 man roster but the Dodgers can always stash him for a while on the DL with the always popular “tendinitis” of the this or that until a roster spot opens up.
He isn’t eligible.
The Mets could non tender AJ Ramos, given his contract, their financial woes, and their public interest in guys like Bryan Shaw.
I don’t really see that. He’s hardly a flawless pitcher, but there’s value in having him on a manageable, one-year commitment given his track record, late-inning experience, and durability. If needed, he could be traded. On the other hand, it is somewhat notable that he ended up with the Mets over the summer, which does suggest that no contending teams were really willing to chase after him.
I see no reason why the Brewers would non tender either Stephen Vogt or Hernan Perez. Vogt may be making $3.5 million or more as the backup, but the starter Manny Pina will only be making the minimum. Plus, I have heard nothing but good things about Vogt as a clubhouse presence. As for Perez, unless the Brewers trade/sign somebody, they will go into spring training with a three headed beast of Perez-Jonathan Villar-Eric Sogard fighting over that starting 2nd baseman job. Even if Perez doesn’t get the job, he is still extremely versatile (played every position except catcher last year) and can handle the bat well. He may not be a starter, but I akin him to a poor mans Ben Zobrist. And for $2.2 million, that’s a small price to pay for a guy like that.
There is no reason to pay all 3. To me Villar is the odd man out on his poor defense alone on top of his inability to make consistent contact. If they were to bring back Walker, Villar is toast and might be anyway.
Steve Adams / Jeff Todd……..
Great job of “Reporting The Facts”……….I love that you CLEARLY STATED……..
“It should be emphasized that we’re not indicating that each of these players is likely to be non-tendered……..”
……yet most of the posts here are arguments stating “Why this player shouldn’t be listed”.
You guys have a Thankless Job sometimes…….Thank You For Continuing To Do It!!!
It’s okay, people have strong feelings on some of these guys and it’s all in the spirit of debate. But thanks for your support, ha.
I can’t see the Bucs non-tendering Mercer unless they are going full-on tear down mode.
The thought here is that there are cheaper or better options and the Pirates are pinching every penny. Could imagine them approaching him with some scenarios to tamp down on the cost, too.
I don’t think Gattis, Mercer, or Hech will be NT’d by their teams.
Rangers will probably non tender AJ Griffin since they just signed Fister but Nick Martinez is like there 6th starter at a cheap price of 2 Million so I expect them to tender him
Yankees must have a lot faith in Higashioka if they non-tender Romine. Romine’s the kind of blue-collar, tough clubhouse guy New York needs to keep around, especially with Holliday and Sabathia gone.
I’d add Loup to possible non-tenders
Lot of very serviceable players on this list
I love 12/2- always one of my favorite days of the offseason
Mets have several non-tender candidates lmao