The Cardinals will issue a qualifying offer to righty Lance Lynn, MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch reports on Twitter. He’ll have ten days to weigh the $17.4MM offer.
Expectations long have been that Lynn would receive a QO from the Cards — and that he’d ultimately reject it. We’ll have to wait a while to learn his decision, but given his apparent expectations in free agency it seems all but a foregone conclusion that he’ll choose to hit the open market.
Lynn’s decision is eased by the new rules governing the qualifying offer. Teams weighing a signing won’t need to worry about punting a first-round pick, as would have been the case in prior years. The hope and expectation is that the rule change will tamp down on the market difficulties faced by some non-star veterans in the past.
As we discussed in our ranking of the top fifty free agents, Lynn figures to land one of the ten largest contracts of the winter. But our prediction (four years and $56MM) probably seems light if you focus on the positives — namely, a shiny 3.38 career ERA over 977 2/3 innings. That reflects some concerns about the sustainability of that output as Lynn enters his thirties.
This is the right move. He will obviously turn it down, but even if he accepts it 17 million is not an over pay.
5 years 85 MM
wouldnt shock me to see the cubs fill arrieta’s spot with a similar statistical arm albiet cheaper price tag like lynn
Agreed
People keep mentioning those career high walk and homer rates as reasons to expect less from Lynn going forward, but they fail to mention the fact that those unusual peripherals were posted in his first year back from Tommy John Surgery (not to mention that homer rates were significantly up across the board this year). I see no reason he can’t return back to his 2013-2015 form as an excellent #2 starter. I see him getting at least $80M over 4 years.
No reason to think Lynn can’t get 18 to 20 million for 4 or 5 yr deals.
Solid # 3 starter period
18 to 20 mil per season
Stl PD has him at 5/90 mil ish. MLBTR said 4/56mil. Answer is probably in the middle. 5/80mil or 4/65mil. Unfortunately, the small bears will probably be all over the 4/65 offer. Good pitcher. Solid #3.
A lot of people wouldn’t agree with me but I feel there is a chance he accepts the QO.
I think the Cardinals will offer 3 years at 48m. Lynn should take it.
Martinez Reyes Weaver Lynn Wainwright Wacha.
Flaherty gets traded in the Stanton deal. Surplus outfielders get traded for bullpen arms.
Noooooo keep all our starting pitchers