There has been no shortage of chatter on Giancarlo Stanton and Shohei Ohtani over the past few weeks. We gathered up more news and rumors on each of these significant players yesterday — here and here, respectively. It’s fair to wonder whether their still-unsettled situations could be to blame for a notably sluggish start to the free agent market. The former, in particular, is a potential cause given that his massive contract and complicated trade situation might be hindering the development of the markets of premium free agents — though certainly other structural factors may be playing a far greater role, as Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports argues in a must-read piece.
- Free agent righty Yu Darvish evidently still has a broad class of suitors, according to a report from Jim Bowden of Sirius XM (via Twitter). Six (unidentified) clubs have engaged on the veteran hurler, with about as many others seemingly having shown some degree of interest. That’s not surprising for a pitcher of Darvish’s stature — he entered the offseason atop MLBTR’s list of the top fifty free agents — but it does suggest that the back-and-forth is only just getting underway.
- Over at Fangraphs, Dave Cameron has explored the hypothetical possibility of the Blue Jays dangling star third baseman Josh Donaldson in trade. He first posited that Toronto could match up with the Cardinals in a swap that might allow both teams to maximize their resources and stay in contention. (Of course, this is presented as analysis, not a report of actual discussions.) And yesterday, Cameron argued that Donaldson might not bring maximum value if he’s ultimately shopped at the deadline (supposing, of course, that the Jays end up in a selling posture). Other premium hot corner rentals could also be available this summer, Cameron notes, and it seems unlikely that there’ll be a whole lot of demand.
- Third baseman Todd Frazier is likely to plug a gap for one of the few contenders that does need a new option there. But he’s also still interested in returning to the Yankees, he tells MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link). Of course, that’s an organization that may well decide not to add at that position; we covered just that subject in some detail about a month back. Frazier says it’d be “great” to remain in the Bronx, but also suggests he may be resigned to finding a new home, noting that he “understand[s] the business” side of things.
Frazier to the Cards? He certainly knows the NL central and could “plug the gap”, cheaper than Donaldson. Though they could have intentions of acquiring Mr. Rain-Maker and extend him. I think if they manage to snag Stanton, Frazier would be a solid addition both on the field and in the club house.
I like the idea of Frazier to the Cardinals!!!
They cant afford everybody
they have tons of plug the gab guys. what they need is stars
He isn’t any significantly better than any of their in house options. The only reason Donaldson is being considered is because of his elite bat, not his position. He could play just about any other spot on the field and he would be considered if he had that bat. The Cardinals are not lacking for good players. They have a roster full of very good players. What they don’t have is an elite player, which is why they are pursuing Stanton, even though their 40-man roster has a logjam if outfielders. Frazier makes no sense whatsoever.
Jays wouldn’t trade Donaldson to the Cards anyway as the Cards don’t have anything of value they can send back.
A Donaldson deal is going to require a haul of upper level elite prospects. I think the Jays should be shopping him to all teams. Hold an auction. it will speed up the needed Jays rebuild dramatically.
cardinals have enough strikeout artist hitters to add another one in frazier.
Baseball in general has strikeouts rising so you should get used to it
liberal thinking
They’ve been rising but they have multiple players with 25%+. Grichuk and Dejong were both at around 30%. That’s not just a normal rise, its a problem.
It’s a problem in baseball as a whole not just in stl
An out is an out, no matter how you make it.
No, it is not. There are productive outs. What would YOU prefer, a sac fly or run-scoring groundout, or a strikeout that gets nothing done?
you can also move the runner up from second to third on a groundout or a fly out. can’t do that with a K. there is a much better chance at a fielder making an error or having a bad hop if you hit the ball than the catcher missing the third strike. a strikeout almost always means turning around and walking back to the dugout.
You can also ground out on one pitch with no one one or strikeout on six pitches. There are more times in a game with nobody one than with a runner on so I would argue most times a strikeout is no less valuable.
God no. I’m still a huge fan of Frazier but it would be much harder to root for him on the Cardinals
Mr. Rain Maker?
I would love for the Cards to sign Frazier. I had hoped they wouldv’e traded for him last year.
We will extend him to a three year deal and it’s Bringer of Rain!!!!! Not Mr.Rain-Maker
Zzzzzzzzzzz
This slow market just shows which free agents are totally in it for the money…
What else would they be in it for?
Winning a World Series maybe? Stupid question bud
With no salary cap it is unrealistic to expect players to take a pay cut go for a contender. The market is very large range of teams in terms of winning
Which would you rather have, a World Series ring or $100,000,000.00?
Depends on what the 100 million is opposed to.
100 million
I’ll take the cash lol
What a ridiculous answer. (See, I can play troll too.) Why should players choose their team based on how likely they are to win a World Series that year? So they can glam onto someone else’s championship? Sure, if you’re Carlos Beltran in your last year that makes sense, but other players can help their team win. Jon Lester chose the Cubs after a season they won 71 games. I think helping a team go from 71 wins to WS champion has to be pretty sweet.
Well said!!
I’ll take the cash all day long!
Or maybe they have multiple offers, or teams haven’t offered them anything?
Plz Frazier to the Mets.
Frazier is ideal for the Mets…Also, I think they need to seriously look at the idea of trading DeGrom for some top, no miss prospects…Cleveland maybe for Zimmer (CF), Mejia (C) and MacKenzie (P). All are top flight prospects
I think it’s a combo of missing the playoffs two years in a row now, and the Cubs winning that the Cards are looking to make a big splash. Everyone’s not going to land with the Cards obviously, but it sounds like they’ll be in on every big name until they get one.
Agreed, they have a lot of holes to fill and the money to make it happen. They don’t want to miss the playoffs for a 3rd strait year. Bullpen needs a couple of arms, the rotation needs innings, and he lineup needs 2 hitters that can make a difference.
they also need better performances. Mike Leake, Dexter Fowler, Brett Cecicil and other recent signings need to bounce back
Leake is in Seattle now.
Leake isn’t going to help the Cardinals at all.
Leake was traded last year to Seattle! Big baseball fan I see!
A lot of holes? No no they do not
the cardinals front office has been promising a splash for the last few years. how’ that work? it didn’t, so i don’t expect anything from them this year, except more unfilled promises.
They aren’t stuck with heyward or prices ridiculous contracts so I’m OK with them missing.. and if I see one more person say wong and piscotty’s deals are bad I’m going to lose it!
wong and piscotty’s deals are terrible
Then you don’t know Jack about baseball in 2017 and beyond there guy
i’d rather you blew up
I agree with you ! Those are very reasonable deals .
Each of the previous years didn’t have a billion dollar tv deal about to kick in though. Add in the fact that the Cards have some very good pitching prospects and a surplus of outfielders to use as trade capital and I’d expect them to do something fairly big, which kind of sucks as a Pirates fan. I’d stay away from whatever contract JD Martinez signs and keep the prospects it would take to convince Toronto to let go of Donaldson, but the Cards should be in on any other available slugger.
So Passan is essentially saying “The market is slow because teams are smarter now and not pissing away money?”
Is that about right?
Good….
Winter meetings haven’t even happened yet. That’s usually when things get going. Yes I’m past years a few seas have happened prior. But not every year.
The current free agent market is the result of a collusion of intelligence about player/financial value. I’ll buy that. We’re almost in a reverse Moneyball situation. A team hitting early and spending big might clear the market of the top tier talent. In the 80s owners colluded against signing free agents. Now, fiscal science and analytics is working against players. It’ll work for awhile, until the mlbpa accomplishes balancing pay for young players under team control. They’ll reverse engineer the system. But….we’re seeing a day where players are being as closely paid their real value as we ever have. Makes it hard to find an edge….everyone playing the same system means the hidden value is in older overpaid players that hang on the market….and thats not much value.
I agree, I’d also like to add, maybe the post steroid era has a small part of this too, the age of decline seems to me to be earlier, the players aren’t as durable either, I like how MLB has juiced up the ball instead, lol
I’m not sold on the earlier age of decline just yet. That said the game is clearly shifting to be a more “young man’s game” again.
Proven that a player’s prime comes earlier than thought for many years so the decline us earlier too,no?
I recall the last time they said the ball was juiced…lol….Ill hold my breath. Getting an edge in baseball has as much history with the game as beer and hot dogs. To me, the ban that has effected the game more than any wasnt steroids…it was banning greenies. The long season was built off them.
Well, maybe, but if everyone is working from more or less the same valuation model, the impact should essentially cancel out. Some players might end up with less, and others with more, but that alone doesn’t explain the slower signing of free agents. Every year it seems the biggest names hang out on the market a bit longer, and the second-tier players don’t generally get signed until the top players move. Every year it’s a different reason unique to the most desirable players.
Teams may be realizing that a lot of players aren’t effective past age 33-34 and that giving players contracts through age 36 or 37 seasons just doesn’t make sense. They want to give less years. Jake Arrieta will be 32 next season. If you knew that there was a 75% chance he wouldn’t be worth much from age 35 how many years would you offer him?
Arrieta is defenitely on the decline. Most of his numbers show it. It is a crap shoot with pitchers over 30 unless you are named Nolan Ryan and he was a fitness freak of nature. From a scouting view, I project no more than 2 years more of any effective pitching at a #3 and #4 level from Arrieta.
The point being, whatever the teams are realizing, they are realizing pretty much simultaneously since they are all using valuation models and their models probably don’t vary a great deal. The main difference between the teams will continue to be what it has always been, and that’s their ability and willingness to spend. Winning has never been cost-effective and not every team is going to be in the position to throw money at problems knowing that some of it is likely to be a write-off.
Some of it is natural player ego. Some wont accept a true pay thats front loaded where their actual value is. A pitcher might essentially say, “like heck i wont be great at 37!” It denies basic normal aging history….but itll slow up the free agency process until they realize they need to take what they can get. Maybe agents play into this….they build the market up just like a real estate agent would. They want that house on the market for top dollar…might as well try….cause they know it might also raise the floor a bit too.
Winning HAS been cost effective in recent time. Oakland and Minnesota both showed that…using the valuation system EVERYONE seems to use now.
We’re back to good old player development and the top end teams actually being willing to spend a bit more, like you said. The Cubs of recent vintage tanked so that they could basically become the A’s with money to spend. Maybe the only franchise with fan base that would allow a tank like that. For example….I can’t imagine Yankees fans buying into that blow up rebuild.
Outliers don’t prove a case, they tend to disprove it. When was Oakland last in the World Series? 1990. What about the Twins? 1991.
BlueSky….I dont believe you can measure a team success by the short sprint of the post season. Minnesota and Oakland have both been dominate over a 162 game schedule recently…by recent I mean this century. These teams werent outliers….Oakland and Minnesota both successfully blew up the old system of success and ushered in the current system. A key opponent hit in a small sample post season game doesn’t negate the accomplishment that those teams were able to play post season ball on a 1/3 fraction of the Yankees payroll. Oakland was great in the late 90s and early OO’s….rebuilt and starting in 12 had another great run. By the measure of world series success….the Texas Rangers have never been successful. Id say in payroll scale…which is where teams are looking at now…teams like Oakland and Montreal before them are the dream…for big market teams they can use the same system…and then augment with money.
I think what you are expressing here is the classic small market team dilemma. They can put together a competitive team every 10-15 years and keep it together for a few years if they are careful and fortunate, and maybe every 20-25 years if they are not so much. The Twins and the A’s might look more like the former category, but in between these competitive windows, both teams were pretty awful. If you want to use the simple threshold of making it to the postseason, pretty much every team qualifies over the last 15-20 years.
To some extent they can compete…they have a reverse window to the large market teams. Ex…it will be tougher for the Cubs to develop a top flight farm system as they win now and their pick falls in the 28ish range. The Kris Bryants wont be there.
A’s need the new park to help. But i dont guess i understand the old market size arguments….not with the media money in play. In-game ballpark revenue is less impactful than it has been in the past.
Media market I suppose is shorthand for how much revenue they’re receiving from their media contract, and that’s going to be based in large part on how recently they’ve been able to sign a new one. Even so it will depend at least somewhat on the size of the market and how large a following the team has at the time they negotiate the contract. The Bay Area media market isn’t small but the A’s have been playing in that dump for such a long time it’s a wonder anybody shows up for games.
Ive been thinking about what the next market inefficiency is. It’s a little perplexing given most teams hunt same fields. I could see it being in medical evaluation. A team is able to come up with a highly skilled way of determining when specific players will implode…or when to acquire recovering ones. But it seems like we’re out of the math analysis and delving into hunches again. Healthiest teams are winning teams if they are close enough to being near the top….so how to field the healthiest team. How to quantify when a human body will break.
As far as player development. My experience inside the game was that most teams can draft rounds 1-5. Those slots are basically locks give or take….same pool of players basically. After that…say rounds 6-15 is where an organization really shows its talent. Look and see how many of their players taken there end up being productive mlb players for them or others. Its funny….the inefficiency now might be back to the human element. The systems of analysis are all very similar on an analytical level. The difference now could be “beating the computer” basically. Analysis isnt new…thats a lonnnng family tree. I was with an organization in the mid 90s that had been onto analytics for over a decade. Perhaps, Bill James made it more well known…but prior to him there was Earl Weaver….Branch Rickey…etc.
I’ve been saying something similar for quite awhile. Once everyone is squeezing the life out of the same set of numbers, the edge goes to those who can apply them with more skill, and that skill comes down to human judgment. Quantitative analysis can’t stand entirely on its own, it has be used in tandem with informed intuition. This is how science works.
Right on, it is nice to see someone who gets it. Numbers mean nothing unless they can be intuitively applied to a anow and down the road situation. Most people think they are a scout becuase they can quote war or they made a fantasy trade. Try getting out and watching the ballplayers or seeing them on tape and get a ceiling read about where they are going not where they have been.
It’s not always popular to say this…but baseball has largely always been analytical. Our methods have improved with data collecting improvements…but were still always going to deal with a certain element of chance. The game is never played in a vacuum. A division pennant can come down to one game….one team gets Boston in Fenway on an unusally warm spring day when the Red Sox backend is starting…the team wins 9-4. The team finishing a game back gets Boston later in the year…say Sept and an early chill is in the air. Boston has acquired an ace for the pennant run and hes on the mound…offense is stifled and the team loses 2-1 to Boston and loses that pennant chance. A million veriables to quantify. Parks are not the same, nor are teams over a 162 stretch. The difference between 1st and 5th might be easily quantifiable…but 1st and second…it could be the beauty of baseballs random odds.
You wont get a disagreement from any of the front office or scouting staffs I’ve known. Take the Moneyball A’s. Much is made of Chad Bradford and Scott Hatteberg…and they WERE undervalued. But look at their large pieces. Eric Chavez and Miguel Tejada were products of the farm…that Big 3 rotation. If you want to win..you hire the best scouts AND hire the best analytical people….and you mesh them. This is OLD news in baseball. The general public largely doesnt realize that the Moneyball book was largely a narrative framework of Michael Lewis. I actually just took it back out and perused that vaunted draft class….wow did it bomb! Mark Teahen was ok. Nick Swisher. A couple guys…but how is that a better percentage than any other method? This is logic that had the M’s take Ackley #2 when Trout was there on their own draft board…..of course that’s an extreme example.
Plus free agents aren’t willing to sell themselves short when they can make thousands of dollars from home with just their computer!
Hey that’s what I’m doing. Thanks for spilling the beans!
Re Frazier back to Yankees-he’s a perfectly fine player–but at the money he will undoubtedly get, it’s probably not worth it to the Yankees to blow through the Competitive Balance Tax.
I am feeling some sympathy for the gang at MLBTR…after all, this is the biggest time of the year for them and the market is asleep. One can almost picture you guys trying to figure out how to add more polls and write-ups and what-if scenarios just so that you have some action on the site.
It isn’t just that the action is almost non-existent, but even the flow of rumors seems to have dried up in comparison to prior years. Darn those saberdudes mucking around with free agent valuations – they are cutting into our fun.
.
cry me a river
I’m skeptical that teams are that much smarter than they were just 12 months ago. I think the bigger likelihood is that this free agency class kinda sucks and teams aren’t that enamored about anyone available other than the top 3 (Ohtani, Darvish, Martinez).
And also we see year after year that the biggest pieces hold up the rest of free agency. Once Stanton and Ohtani find a home I’m sure things will get moving pretty quickly.
Slow market is easy to figure. look at who is the agent for many of the top ones? Boras, king of doddling.. He’ll wait out the market, good results, or bad regardless until he can play out his hype machine on both Hosmer and martinez for sure. Wouldn’t shock me if 1 doesn’t sign until early 2018.
dave cameron needs to go back and do some more research, or watch some of the replays of cardinal games if he thinks carpenter’s best position is second base.
Carp should have been traded to the AL at the deadline.. Rosie should have been traded before his arm fell off.. cards front office runs a low risk game.. it’ll get you 82-85 wins every year and hope for a streak.. is it ideal.. not sure.. but it keeps them from having to blow it up for a rebuild
I wish the Orioles could afford Darvish. If we never would have given Davis that monster contract then we could.
Not sure why the O’s owner love(s or d) chris davis so much. Lots of strikeouts and lots of power but he plays firstbase. Now, like you wrote, his contract is holding Baltimore back…
Stanton to Dodgers, Darvish to Cubs, Arrieta to Brewers, Cobb to Colorado.
Could be, though I can’t imagine Cobb wanting to go to Colorado unless of course they offer the most.
unless the Rocks hand out absurd contracts for pitching, why would ANY good FA pitcher consider Denver after the history of Nagle, Hampton and Kile?
Cardinals need to get crafty and explore multiple trades and FA signings and revamp this team. Go after Yellich and take on Dee Gordons contract. Trade for Donaldson or Sign Moustakes to plug at 3rd. Trade for CHris Archer and Colome. Sign Gregg Holland.
2nd Dee Gordon
1st Matt Carpenter
LF Christian Yellich
3rd Josh Donaldson
RF Stephen Piscotty
SS Paul DeJong
C Molina
CF Fowler
ROTATION:
Carlos Martinez
Chris Archer
Luke Weaver
Adam Wainwright
Michael Wacha
Setup:
Gregg Holland
Closer:
Alex Colome
Get it done putos!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Love your ideas to fill the holes, although this plan might get a tad expensive in cash or prospect capital which may mean it is not going to get done.
The Cards want to move Fowler to a corner OF spot to improve the defense
and I believe Wainwright will end up in the BP when Reyes is ready for the starting rotation .
Things always take a minute to happen. No big deal. Also, you have 1 big SP in Ohtani and one big bat in Stanton that are both engaging a lot of teams right now.
As for Frazier, I would love for him to come to NY on a 2 or 3 year deal. The Yanks are contenders for titles and while I wholeheartedly want to see Castro stay and Torres, Andujar and Frazier all get a shot, we can’t assume that a) the rookies will claim a position and succeed fast enough to warrant their spot and b) that we won’t incur injuries.
The great thing about bringing back Frazier to join Headley is that they are both capable of playing 1B, 3B and DH.
Bird should be the starting 1B but who knows whether or not he can stay healthy for a full season and not struggle? Right now, what’s our depth behind Bird? No one special. We traded for Frazier partially because of that fact.
Keep DH open. Between 1b, 3b and DH I could see Bird and Frazier getting 100 games starting and another 20-30 each as a DH. Andujar or Torres, if deserving can find 400 AB between 3B and DH and in Torres case, some 2b and SS too. Trade Ellsbury and C. Frazier becomes the 4th OF and get some games as a DH too.
Unless the Jays stepup and acquire a couple of starting pitchers, new right fielder, a 40% catcher, a new 2nd baseman, a lead off guy for 2018, they are going nowhere so they might as well deal donaldson for a boatload of prospects. Donaldson when healthy can carry a team for extended periods of time: MVP bat, he has a high motor, good defense, great clubhouse guy, leads by example. Teams will pay bigtime for him.
i couldn’t agree more…I really think the blue jays are messing up by holding on to him…cardinals would give them Gyrko or wong and a top pitching prospect for him…probably throw in Grichuk for right field…sorry but the blue jays will not compete in the AL East so they might try and rebuild…because come July and the blue jays want to trade him they won’t get as much in return…maybe the cardinals give you a good pitching prospect
Personally I really think a trade for David Wright to the Cardinals for Matt Carpenter would work great. Just me
David Wright to the Red Sox for Hanley. Calling it now
I’d love to have the Toddfather back in the Bronx