The hot stove season has started off lukewarm, and we might not see a true rush of activity until the rumors surrounding NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton and Japanese phenom Shohei Ohtani finally lead to resolutions of some kind. But when the dominoes start falling, we’re highly likely to see a few free agents sign nine-figure deals.
MLBTR released our annual Top 50 Free Agents With Predictions article early this month, and right-hander Yu Darvish sits atop the list with a predicted $160MM guarantee. Despite a career-low strikeout rate (and a well-documented implosion in the playoffs), Darvish remains an elite arm with a great track record of success, including an average of 3.80 fWAR across his five full MLB seasons. Though he hasn’t been quite the same since returning from Tommy John surgery last year, the Dodgers free agent starter still managed double-digit strikeouts per nine innings this past season while allowing only 2.80 walks per nine. In case there was any doubt about his durability following a major surgery, Darvish threw 186 2/3 innings in 2017, and added several more during L.A.’s playoff run. Of course, his famously horrific World Series performance leaves a stain on an otherwise solid campaign. That, along with a steady decline in his full-season ERA and xFIP across the past four campaigns, could potentially leave some of his suitors uneasy about signing him to a lengthy contract.
Even though J.D. Martinez didn’t qualify for the batting title in 2017, he still finished 44th in MLB with 3.8 fWAR. His .690 slugging percentage was the highest in baseball among players with at least 300 plate appearances, and a full 59 points higher than second-place Stanton. Since joining the Tigers in 2014, Martinez has mashed 128 homers, good for 10th in all of baseball across the past four years. He also ranks in the top ten in slugging percentage (2) and wRC+ (5) during that span. Agent Scott Boras is reportedly seeking a $210MM guarantee for Martinez, dubbing him “King Kong” and referencing his power and batting average numbers. Of course, Martinez comes with plenty of negatives as well. He’s only topped 500 plate appearances twice in his career. He’s also a defensive liability; Martinez has posted absolutely deplorable UZR, DRS and Inside Edge Fielding numbers over the past two years.
Eric Hosmer is the youngest of this group, having just turned 28 in October. He’s never logged fewer than 547 plate appearances in a full season, either. His relative youth and durability means he’s almost certain to get the longest contract, though that doesn’t mean the largest total guarantee. Interestingly, agent Scott Boras is trying to work his intangibles, such as clubhouse presence and media skills, into teams’ valuations of Hosmer. In 2017, Hosmer posted a career-high 4.1 fWAR and tied last year’s personal best with 25 homers. That he’s entering the free agent market following the best season of his career bodes well for him. However, his value could get dragged down by the fact that the free agent first base crop is particularly deep this year. If other first basemen sign quickly, Hosmer could lose suitors (and leverage) in a hurry, which could drive down his price.
What do you think? (Poll link for app users)
All 3 have their flaws, honestly. I’ll predict Darvish though. JDM is good, but defensively hes not very useful, and the corner outfield power bat market has some decent options alright. Hosmer shouldn’t even be in the conversation lol
Well Hosmer is younger. So he could get a longer term deal for less annually and get the “biggest contract”
Example: Martinez signs for 5/$120 while Hosmer signs for 8/$160
Hosmer will NEVER sniff that total.
Heyward shouldn’t have sniffed 8/$183 and that was two years ago. Considering inflation and Hosmer’s age, some club might be dumb enough to do that.
In Heywards “defense” he does have a ring
“Dumb” is the operative word in your comment…..Thank You!
Hosmer has been “a good player”….but Far From Great. His stats line up with Wil Myers (although Myers has had fewer chances to improve them), and Myers signed a 6/$83 Mil deal last Jan. Myers is a year younger.
If you extrapolate the numbers out to equal Games/AB’s……Myers has considerably more speed & power, Hosmer hits for a higher average, but walks less. Myers K’s a little more. Both have a similar DWAR. Here are the slash lines that show that…..
Myers 163 HR / 446 BB / 123 SB
Hosmer 127 HR / 360 BB / 60 SB
Anyone who signs Hosmer to more than 6/110 or 7/125 is absolutely Nuts.
Myers is a horrible comparison. He was nowhere near free agency when he signed his extension.
As noted by Sox below, the context of their status in relation to FA is incredibly important in regards to the deals they signed. Additionally, you are talking about middle of the order bats who play 1B, why would you cite SBs as one of the three stats you chose to demonstrate approximate values for these guys?
How is that a defense? You don’t have to be good to get a WS ring. Anyone who appears in a single game for a WS winner is eligible to have one. (Not all players are given one by the team. Some players have to order them and pay out of pocket)
Having a ring has nothing to do with that horrible contract signing from 2 years ago!
Lol defensively no one cares about defense we want power
What the fans want and what’s best for teams are not always the same. Defense matters and has value.
Tell that to Dan Duqeutte re: Jose Bautista last off-season
Defense absolutely matters and has value. But not 200 million worth of value. Cubs are way upside down on heywards contract right now. No team in baseball would take him on without Cubs eating a ton of money.
Um people definitely do care about defense
Yeah, that’s why web gems isn’t a thing.
It’s definitely Darvish. There are a lot of first base options and outfield options. The top hitters didn’t get that much last year. The most Hosmer will get us a Chris Davis type contract. I doubt he will though. Martinez is getting what Encarnacion got last year. While Darvish is getting 6 yrs 170million
JDM will get more than EE, only because Boras knows how bad Boston wants HR power. But that’s why I can see Boston packaging JBJ and E-Rod with a prospect or two for Stanton, and then going after the less expensive Hosmer. In that circumstance, JDM gets left behind because none of the better capitalized teams have a desperate enough need for him.
I’d say begin with the agent – Boras.
JD will get the best and the team will regret it.
I just hope it isn’t Boston
If you were choosing a top three why the omission of Jake Arrieta? I have to believe he will command a better contract in terms of total dollars and AAV than Eric Hosmer and perhaps J.D. Martinez as well. His AAV might also best Yu Darvish even if his total dollars don’t because of age and length of contract.
I’d vote for Darvish with the highest total dollar amount and go with Arrieta for best AAV.
Well, at the rate that Arrieta is getting worse, he could be out of baseball in 3 years.. I think teams will be scared to give him a big deal, even a short one.
JD gets it – Red Sox bet against themselves 🙂
I hope not
Someone has to sign first!
jdm will get it.
bold prediction….
AL club takes him. he dh’s and learns 1st.
I agree
There should be a fifth option that no one will ever sign this offseason.
If no one signs by Christmas, I’ll laugh at your joke…
Darvish’s performance in the World Series significantly hurt his stock.
He had 2 lousy starts in the WS. Any great pitcher can have 2 lousy starts back to back.
If I was going to make a justification about his lack of value I’d simply say he hasn’t been as good since his injury.
Why would a contending team invest in someone who was terrible when it matterd most? His regular season was very meh for his standards. He is a solid pitcher but not a guy to break the bank for. Even in the Dbacks and Cubs games where Darvish pitched ok he was still hanging sliders. They just didnt hit them.
I never said any team should invest heavily in him. I only implied Darvish’s World Series starts shouldn’t be an issue. Personally I think if GM’s would have a reason why not to pay him a lot of money is he hasn’t be an ace over the last couple of seasons. Two starts shouldn’t sink his value, two season of him not being an ace should make teams not pay him as an ace.
By that logic Kershaw shouldn’t be worth as much as he makes because of previous post season starts.
he pitched very well against the Diamondbacks and cubs. so while I think that the World Series cost CV him maybe 15 million or so he will still be rich and I think he’ll be fine in the playoffs going forward
Kershaw has pitched well in a large sample size of playoff games. Darvish is also nothing compared to kershaw in the regular season
Hurt? Maybe. Significantly though? Nope. No team is going to base their outlook of him off of two games and ignore the rest
Dark horse candidate here: Tyler Chatwood. Should be highest paid by a wide margin.
Nope. This is the year Ubaldo Jimenez breaks the 200 million dollar mark
I’ll say Kershaw. He would easily surpass any of these players if they work out a new deal.
post says which free agent…which kershaw is not.
we are supposed to read the post too? what a strange world we live in.
I knew someone would say this. It also doesn’t specify which year, so I’ll stick with Kershaw, OK, back to having fun.
ok then I’ll take Harper lol
Darvish because pitchers routinely get paid more than humans do.
Baseball teams never seem to learn, do they? No matter how many free agents flop and fail to earn their bloated contracts, teams belly up again to throw money at them. Players have several mediocre seasons then explode for a big year. During their free agent year, of course. Then after a big payday they go back to their predictable mediocre play. And nobody ever seems to learn.
That’s what they said when the D-backs signed a 35 year old to a 4-year deal. Of course that 35 year old was Randy Johnson who went on to win the CY Youn award in each of those 4 contract years. So, you have to admit, sometimes it works out.
Ichiro was a pretty good signing too.
That’s the problem with this system from the owners perspective. If you want a player, you have to pay more than anyone else is willing to. From a certain perspective, almost every free agent signing is going to be an overpay, because it has to be. Your other option, is not to sign anyone.
but you need free agents to win and the prices what other teams are willing to pay for them so they don’t have much choice. every team needs some free agent signings
1) Arrieta
2) Darvish
3) Lynn / Martina