There hasn’t been much action on the free agent front as we approach the end of November, and we’re still a couple of weeks away from the epicenter of offseason activity known as the Winter Meetings. Still, it isn’t uncommon for one big signing to trigger a plethora of other moves, so now it may just be a question of figuring out which major 2017-18 free agent will set off the offseason’s business by being the first to land a new contract.
Looking at MLBTR’s list of the top 50 free agents, of course, one very big name has already decided on his 2018 team — Masahiro Tanaka, the #5 free agent on the list, decided not to opt out of his deal with the Yankees. (Justin Upton also reached his new five-year agreement with the Angels before our list was published, otherwise he would’ve certainly had a high placement.) With Tanaka off the board, the top ten players on MLBTR’s list are, from 1-10: Yu Darvish, J.D. Martinez, Eric Hosmer, Jake Arrieta, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, Wade Davis, Lance Lynn, Greg Holland, and Alex Cobb.
Beyond how each player personally chooses to approach the market, there are several other big-picture factors that will impact how quickly any of these free agents may find another contract. Shohei Ohtani’s free agency and the Giancarlo Stanton trade talks could hold both the pitching and hitting markets at bay until either situation is resolved. Eight of the ten players (all except Darvish and Martinez) have draft pick compensation tied to their services via the qualifying offer. Martinez, Hosmer, Arrieta, Moustakas, and Holland are all represented by Scott Boras, who is known for waiting deep into the offseason for finding a suitable contract for his clients.
There’s still a lot of uncertainty in this offseason’s market…but hey, that just makes predicting all the more fun! Who do you think will be the first of the top 10 free agents to ink a new deal? (Poll link for App users)
How about just a move in general.. jeeze
You guys have made plenty of great moves and spent $ over in Bronx… I’m just jealous my team is run like the Tampa Bay Rays, Minnesota Twins in the biggest market in the free world.
Do the people voting Martinez realize who his agent is?
And there will be no action on the Martinez front until Stanton is traded
That’s the point: Martinez will go as soon as Stanton is traded.
Scott Boras. JD has a better chance of being last than first.
this
my guess is jdm goes towards the bottom and I hope so.
I think Martinez lags behind here until a team commits to the money
I think some team that has no interest in bidding for Arrieta will throw a big contract at Lance Lynn pretty early
Buyer beware of this strategy. I’m sure the Jays wish they held out on EE last year before giving up and signing Morales.
Mariners are going to overpay to get Darvish, and it will happen before Friday.
Next Friday
Alright you’re on the clock. One week for the Mariners to sign Darvish
Something tells me Cobb signs first.
Wade Davis
Agreed. There really isn’t anything holding up the reliever market and I feel that teams see him as the top get.
Lance Lynn is a bum. A true example of how a pitcher is totally different if you watch him regularly compared to just looking at his numbers.
Dont think Lynn is a bum, but I agree with everything else you stated. Betcha he gets $17mil/yr for 5 yrs from some desperate team
No pitcher should ever get more than 4 years guaranteed. The 7 year deals or longer have never worked out.
So you don’t want the Cubs to give Kershaw a 7 yr contract next year?
I’ll let his agent know
I wouldn’t give Kershaw 7 years. Seems like his back flares up every year. And what is he, like 30 in a couple months?
I have watched his entire career and Lance Lynn is not a bum. that’s ridiculous
He puts up decent numbers each year. Anytime NL should be happy to slot him into the 3 or 4 spot in their rotation. However, I don’t think teams should let him anywhere close to the AL. That would be a nightmare.
He’s a solid four or mediocre three. He’s nothing more than that and his career performances support that ceiling.
Relief pitchers do well when signing early, nor directly being affected by Stanton and Ohtani. Have to lean towards Davis or Holland
POLL- When will the Free Agent Prediction Contest begin?
Ohhhhh that’s why no one has signed yet….. they are waiting for the contest to come out first. I get it now.
Never sadly.
I know! ’twas my favorite feature of this website…even though I was terrible at it
I totally forgot about it, did the site mention anything about it? I think last year they said they were trying to move it off of Facebook to native.
They said it was hard to organize, that’s all I’ve heard.
At this point I think Bryce Harper since everyone is waiting for a overhyped Japanese guy and a Stanton Trade
I was thinking the bullpens arms, Davis and Holland, but I’m waiting to see like the rest of you!
More I think about it Cobb or Lynn go first from a team that want a starter but don’t want to pay full price for yu (or step down for Jake). I don’t really think Otani effects though I could be wrong, if the Orioles really do want to compete they need 1 or 3 new starters
Actually!! Lance Lynn is the most dependable of all of the pitchers. He had a full, good season immediately after Tommy John surgery. Time tested injury for a full year will give Lynn that boost of confidence he needs to be fully back and maintain control of his pitches. Lance Lynn will win at least 18 games for whoever he plays for in 2018. You can book that!!!!
I would suspect Lynn will go to the Cubs. They need a younger innings eater and Lance Lynn fits that bill too.
Lorenzo Cain to the Giants or the Mets in the next couple of days. 3YR/51M dollar deal.
Agree. But to the giants.
Cain would need to have a awful agent for that to happen
Giants seem ready to hand over centerfield to Duggar some time next year, they’ll maybe sign a one year stopgap ala Dyson…I would be shocked if they went multiyear on one after how badly Span and Pagan aged there.
The Giants aren’t going to sign Cain. They want to stay away from long term deals for 30+ year old outfielders. If anything they’ll be in the Jarrod Dyson market but probably prefer a trade. I think Cain goes to Toronto.
Cobb to the Cubs falls first…. Then probably Hosmer to a completely random team no1 is talking about signing him
Agree. I think Hosmer goes to Boston.
I could live with that, but I think Abreu Would make more sense
The Red Sox have been talking about Hosmer. They have a hole at first base. That wouldn’t be a surprise. But I don’t want him. Singles doubles hitter with no power. We’ve got five of those guys already. Bring me a Big Bopper !!!
Wade Davis back to the Cubs
I would love to see all major league teams ban anyone represented by Boras, he has ruined the game one and dones signing 200 million dollar deals
They should ban him not his clients. That’s gotta be 5% of superstar status players. From Harper to Bryant to arrieta , Strasburg hosmer.
Yea what a horrible guy getting his clients the most money and forcing those teams to agree to the terms.
Salaries go up, your tickets and hot dogs and beers go up. I see his point. But I’m all for capitalism and making what you can.
That’s funny you say that beer prices go up. I went to Rockies vs cubs at Coors back in may..the vendors told us that they raise the beer prices $1 only when the cubs are in town. A tall boy is $13 instead of 11 or 12$. I think it depends on the beer. Coors is likely the one that goes up.
Wrek305, Lol, funny !
Redsoxrob you are a buffoon. He isn’t Luca Brasi.
He has done nothing to ruin the game, he wants his clients to get full market value, he just does his job
Wade Davis re-signs with the cubs. 4/65. With incentives to make up to 75 mil with a certain amount of saves.
Alex Cobb also to the cubs 4/75 with options for a 5th year. And incentives for a 6th year for SO and IP.
I truely hope the Cardinals pick up Dee Gordon to lead off and play second base. They, (the Cardinals) put too much stock in both Matt Carpenter and Kolton Wong. Both are head cases, and both are over rated by the Cardinals and their own egos. Acquiring Dee Gordon would eliminate 2 problems the Cardinals have contended with for years.
Would eliminate neither problem (unless they were able to trade Wong for Gordon.)
I’m going with Lance Lynn. Enough interest in him, but not a super-contract that would hold up the works with over-bidding. Hosmer and Cain will follow close behind.
Well if the Marlins are looking to shed payroll. Maybe Dee Gordon and Staton for Grichuck, Reyes and 2 other prospects. Send Wong and a prospect or 2 to Tampa for Colome.
Cubs and Alex Cobb
It will be Otani to Yankees