Gerrit Cole is a highly visible player — a former first overall pick who landed fourth in the National League Cy Young vote in 2015 — so it’s natural there will be strong opinions about the return he drew in the recent swap between the Pirates and Astros. We have already seen a variety of industry opinions pour in (see here, here, here, and here), but I thought it’d be worth taking the temperature of the MLBTR readership.
There’s little reason to full describe the elements of the agreement. (MLBTR’s Conny Byrne discussed all relevant elements in detail in his post on the Cole trade.) But here’s a brief account for purposes of facilitating today’s poll:
Astros receive:
- 2 years of control over SP Gerrit Cole ($6.75MM for 2018; arbitration for 2019) — following aforementioned 2015 season, Cole was limited by injury in 2016 and pitched to a 4.26 ERA with 8.7 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in a healthy 2017 season
Pirates receive:
- 4 years of control over RP Michael Feliz — carries 5.13 ERA (allowing 1.5 HR/9) through 121 MLB innings, but has averaged 12.8 K/9 against 3.6 BB/9
- 5 years of control over SP/RP Joe Musgrove — former first-round pick has been tagged for a .288/.339/.506 slash and 5.37 ERA over 25 MLB starts, but worked to a 1.26 ERA with 39:6 K/BB ratio in 35 2/3 innings last year after moving to the bullpen
- 6 years of control over 3B Colin Moran — former sixth overall draft pick slashed .308/.373/.543 with 18 home runs in 338 plate appearances at Triple-A last year, but has yet to receive significant time in the majors
- 6 years of control over OF Jason Martin — 22-year-old reached Double-A for first time in 2017, slashing .273/.319/.483 with 11 home runs in 320 plate appearances
Since there are two teams involved with their own set of needs, we’ll ask for grades from each organization’s perspective. For Pittsburgh, clearly, the move was designed to add multiple assets that can deliver value over a longer time frame. If even one of these players really succeeds, it could end up standing as a win. Also of note: the Bucs are said to have passed up a chance at gaining one higher-grade prospect (Clint Frazier of the Yankees) in order to add several contributors.
(Poll link for app users.)
On the Houston side, it’s all the more clear. The team resisted parting with its own blue-chip prospects, but gave a variety of useful pieces up to acquire just two seasons of Cole. If one views him as even a quality and durable mid-rotation starter, and does not think the assets parted with will come back to haunt the ’Stros, then this could be seen as a bargain. On the other hand, there are some questions surrounding Cole and it is not difficult to imagine one or more of the more controllable assets sent to Pittsburgh delivering greater value than will Cole’s final two arb years.
(Poll link for app users.)
I accentently voted A on the wrong poll. My answer to the first poll is C.
Doubt it
But are you happy Cole is out of the division?
I think you should add potential draft pick compensation assuming Cole receives QO.
With 2 years of control that was not a consideration in the trade so it should not be a consideration
Enjoy the mediocrity Houston. Having Cole is kinda like visiting Delaware. A few interesting things, but ultimately you are in Delaware. Nothing too exciting.
Glad Im not the only person who thought this
I’m reading plenty of articles saying he wasn’t used correctly in Pittsburgh. If his slider is rated as his best pitch, there’s no reason to only throw it 17% of the time. I recognize Cole has question marks but I expect a significant improvement considering the quality team he’s on now but more importantly the quality pitching coach he now has.
It’s his best pitch, but he has trouble controlling it and over use of a slider can lead to injury. The Pirates are best known for their handling of pitchers. Doubt the Astros have a magic wand that the Pirates didn’t have.
Cole may improve, but I’d think that it is as least as likely that he struggles far more in Houston. I’ll admit though that I’ve never really been a huge fan of his though as the times I’ve watched him pitch it always seemed he’d end up grooving a pitch. He looks to be more mediocre than spectacular.
Exactly. The Pirates pitching coaches are considered some of the best in the business.
Dude do you even follow baseball – the Pirates have the best pitching coach in the majors.
Cole has been an underachiever- I like him / big time competitor but he needs to be your 3rd or 4th starter.
Do you even follow baseball? He was indeed brought in to be our 3rd or 4th starter, not our number 1
That “magic wand” certainly worked with a former Pirates pitcher in the form of Charlie Morton
Morton actually had some good seasons as a Pirate. It wasn’t really a surprise to see him do well.. Also wasn’t s surprise to see his name come up on injury lists 🙁
Good thing the Astros have Verlander, Keuchel, and maybe McCullers ahead of him making Cole the 3rd or 4th starter
Hmm Charlie Morton was in Pitt.. Strom waived his magic wand and turned him into a serviceable starter..
Coles numbers look pretty similar to Max Scherzers through age 26. Comparable stuff, if Cole figures it out like Max did he could dominate.
I really don’t like Cole moving from NL to AL and playing half his games in Houston either. I see a 4+ ERA in his future. Luckily the W-L is valued by fans and the Astros offense will make him look better than he is on that front.
But hey, if Cole is your #4 starter, you are a pretty good team.
What do you mean? Delaware has got a really nice rest area on the highway between Philly and Baltimore. Even JFK was there when it first opened!
Delaware has nice beaches too. Also a nice cypress swamp, first class birding locations in their National Wildlife Refuges, and it’s a good place to shop (no sales tax).
I’m not from Delaware but enough ragging on it. People live there, right? It’s their home. (Didn’t we just discuss something similar with the President?)
Snowflake
Hardly. but whatever….
A bunch of morons said the same when the Astros signed Charlie Morton too. They’re still morons!
Ground chuck didn’t go to Houston from Pittsburgh. Either way, when he was healthy he was as dominant as Cole ever was. He just couldn’t stay healthy.
In Charlie’s 7 years with the Pirates, he had 4 years with a 4+ ERA. I would hardly call that dominant
Charlie only got over 170ip once as a pirate. had a couple pretty good years here too. In the end the health and inconsistency drove him away. When he was healthy and semi consistent he was a good mid rotation guy.
I hope he continues to do well in Houston. Always liked him and Houston since moving to the AL.
I didn’t realize all six of the people who live in Delaware are on MLBTR
Don’t live there. I live in Philly’s Western burbs. But let’s not pretend Delaware is like living in New York, NJ or California, where people are leaving in droves.
Delaware has net positive internal migration – and they root for the PHillies – so screw the bashers.
governing.com/gov-data/census/2010-census-state-mi…
Small parks in the nl central. Larger parks in the al west. Better team behind him in Houston. Better catcher too
but the beaches are real nice.
🙂
The Pirates used to be in a great position with prospects and established regulars, but just totally flubbed it. Just decided to bow out right when theyre in the position to contend.
It didn’t help that Mccutchen struck out when it mattered most in the playoffs.
Even after this deal its clear the Pirates have one foot in the present and one in the future. Why not commit to an actual rebuild and seek out some higher ceiling talent a level or two lower in the system? I actually like what they got well enough in that it solves some current issues in the pen and at 3B. But we aren’t in contention anyways and the farm system, which we have almost solely relied upon for our recent success, is withering. We are likely looking at another prolonged dark age unless we start replenishing the minors sooner rather than later.
I give the Pirates a C- on this one.
Not so sure it “solves” pen or 3b for pirates. Musgrove may start & he’ll be average in NL. Feliz may improve going to NL as well but he’s nothing special. Moran will be average at 3b IMO too. I think they trade Harrison & Cutch pretty soon too though. So they at least will have people to plug into spots.
IF they see Musgrove as more than a backend starter, they should add him to the rotation. I just don’t want to see another 4/5 starter lacking consistency. If the Pirates are going to have a decent rotation they’ll need one of Musgrove/Glasnow to start living up to potential and Nova to bounce back, too. A lot to ask.
Musgrove had good control in the minors. I think with more seasoning and working with Searage, he and Feliz will become solid pitchers.
Wonder if they’ll give Feliz a shot in the rotation or keep him in the pen.
I don’t think Musgrove will ever be more than a solid reliever. He stays too much around the plate and his stuff while solid can be timed and predictable 2 or 3 times through the lineup. He threw harder when he went to the pen and only had to face guys one time through at most
Solves the 3b situation for the Pirates until Hayes is ready. He is supposed to be the real deal too but a few years away. This does mean that Kang is done as a Pirates. Bull pen was already rated 5th best by Buster Olney and his panel of scouts and experts.
The small NL/AL difference is going to be far less significant than just whether or not these guys can figure out how to pitch at the big league level.
Well, look at it this way from the Bucs perspective: Cole has tons of potential, and a high ceiling, but the last two years he’s basically been league average – in the NL. He’s averaged 2.2 rWAR (4.4 total) the last two seasons. So when you look at what they “gave up”, they gave up someone, who for them, was a league average starter.
So, can the players they got back produce a total of 2.2 rWAR a season?
I thinks so, and, as Jeff said above if just one of them breaks out they could wind up looking pretty good in this trade.
Moran is a former first rounder, and if he just produces at an average rate as a 3B he could give them that 2.2 rWAR by himself.
If the other three guys contribute something too, this trade could make them better than they were the last two years with Cole producing at an average rate.
Granted, Cole has huge upside – that is for what the Astros traded. And, if he gets back to 2015 form this trade is a big win for the Astros, but if he doesn’t then the guys the Bucs got back have the potential to give them more than they got from Cole the last two seasons.
It will be interesting to see how this works out.
I think Moran should be a great pick up. He really seemed to figure it out last year and then fouled a ball off his face breaking it. If that didn’t happen I expected him to hit .280ish with some pop.
I also think Musgrove and Feliz will both be starters this year for the Bucs. Musgrove is still adjusting but has great stuff. Feliz is a blazer that has great stamina. I expect them to be average starters with decent upside.
Plus you shaved 6 mill off your payroll
I think Pittsburg got a lot more in this deal than their fans think.
Why should Cole have been worth much of anything? His last two years (those most meaningful) have shown regression. His pedestrian ERA figures to reach 4.50 in the AL. Darvish, Cobb and Lynne don’t project to be any better.
Cobb had a 3.07 ERA over his last 17 starts, are you really going to ding a guy in his first full year coming back from TJ for having a couple rough outings? That’s bad analysis. Those bad games are to be expected and should not be viewed as the norm. I’ll take 2018 Cobb over 2018 Cole, Lynn and maybe even Darvish by a long, long way.
Wow, pass what you are smoking over… You will take a guy that hasn’t ever pitched 180 innings, is damaged goods, and wants 18 – 20 mil a year over a guy that makes 6 mill, throws 98, has thrown over 200 innings twice, 8.4k/9 over his career, 3 years younger and has the stuff to be included in the Cy Young conversation? Uh, ok….
I voted C. Pirates should have said Derek Fisher or no deal.
Then, they would have had no deal apparently. We have no idea who the Yanks were really offering, nor any other team. Maybe this was fare and away the best they were being offered for Cole. Not one of us were in on any of the negotiations nor were any of the “experts” who are contending they know who was being offered. by the Yanks. Time will tell if this is a good or a bad deal for either side.
Where will cutch land ?
Giants or stay with the Pirates depends on where Cain goes so I will tell you in 10 years when he signs
LOL! On his feet or on the DL if he lands any other way!
Seems like the only Cutch rumors are with Giants, and their farm system is poor. Wait till July and hope Cutch has a good year, or keep thru season and offer the QO?
This is a good trade for both teams. Musgrove could turn into a good 3 or a very good pen piece, Feliz could be the next Octavio Dotel, Moran should be a solid contributor. Maybe none of them are stars, but you need stable players for a good team, and I think these three are. All of them were blocked in Houston, so I’m glad they’ll get an opportunity to do well in Pitt.
Anyone who thinks Cole was worth a blue chipper when his last outstanding season was two years ago is over valuing him, at least statistically. Pirates fans have said he’s trying to be too perfect, which is the reason for his stats in 17, and maybe that’s the case. But in this instance, you’re trading him at what his value is presently, not what it was or what it could be. Pitt did pretty well to get three solid pieces instead of one really good piece.
Better Astros package….the Cole trade or the Verlander trade?
Forgot the name of the young pitcher Detroit got, but he’ll be the one that determines which trade is better in a few years.
Franklin Perez. And yes, I think it’s way too early to tell, but I would take Perez over Musgrove… Astros sent Daz Cameron and Jake Rodgers to Detroit, I don’t expect to see any of them in the majors until 2020, maybe a 2019 September call up. Whereas, Pirates have 3 ML ready players, plus Martin. Hard to evaluate the Detroit deal because none will be ML contributors for so long, if at all.
There’s also the money element. Verlander is getting paid 56M over the next two years (40M from Houston). Cole will probably make around 17M, and next year isn’t guaranteed (in case of injury.) Verlander’s first half stats aren’t much better than Cole’s though.
I’m just happy to have both pitchers.
Do the Pirates need to think about moving not only the obvious next pieces (Cutch and Harrison) but also Rivero? He is probably the one piece that will return top talent and its unlikely that a closer will be our biggest concern over the next few years, Besides, Feliz looks like an arm that could project as a closer anyways. It would really pain me to see Rivero go but we desperately need to return better talent. Perhaps Rivero becomes available at the deadline or next offseason.
Not yet for Rivero. See how things pan out with Meadows and the rotation. If Musgrove and/or Glasnow move forward, they suddenly have a pretty decent team.
Gerrit Cole’s FIP and xFIP over the last two seasons were both just 9% better than league average. His ERA was 2% better than league average.
Cole’s WHIP, in that period, was 1.32. The Major League average for starting pitchers was 1.34. His Batting Average Against was 2.63. The Major League average for starters was .258.
Yep….slightly above average with 2015 being the outlier.
I voted C on The Pirates return. They really didn’t get back anything great, but they also didn’t get back anything bad.
They also didn’t give away anything great, so how can you penalize them for not getting back anything great.
Cole’s problems with HR last year will not be helped by the Astros home park. The Pirates home park limits HR by 10% according to Fangraphs. The Astros park adds to HR by 5%.
Most of the HRs Cole gave up were on his fastball which he used over 75% of the time.. the Astros relied on their fastball the least in the MLB.. Strom will get Cole to not rely on his fastball as much, hopefully cutting down on those HRs as well
Pirates filled some more immediate needs in this trade but didn’t get much in highly rated talent just two former top 100 prospects in Moran and Musgrove but all with some question marks.
Moran is a third basemen the pirates needed that could have the potential near kang’s production at the plate down the line, but it really depends on if last years changes translate to the MLB.
If Musgrove develops one of his secondary pitches better he could be a fair starter. I bet the Pirates are looking at the same thing to try early on. If it doesn’t work out he should be a good reliever with his primary pitches.
If Feliz gets the ball on the ground more and keeps the ball from going to the back stop (wild pitches) he too could be a fair reliever.
Martin has good upside and is on the rise. I wouldn’t be surprise if he cracks the top 100 prospects going into 2019
Grade A for getting what they need, Grade c- for the quality and uncertainty.
Astros get at worst a mid/back reasonably cheap starter who has very high upside.but with a small injury history and consistency issues (possibly related to the injury)
Grade B+ because they didn’t give up anyone they’ll need for a run, not an A simply because Cole does have some question marks.
“Also of note: the Bucs are said to have passed up a chance at gaining one higher-grade prospect (Clint Frazier of the Yankees) in order to add several contributors.”
That’s the real question here, not whether this package of players represents an adequate haul for Cole but whether they turned down a better offer.
Won’t pretend to be able to view this trade as a fan of either team. But thinking as a generic baseball fan I’d much rather have Frazier plus whatever else the Yanks were throwing in. The Pirates need some stars, and Frazier still looks like he’s gonna become one really soon. None of the players they actually traded for have anywhere near his ceiling.
As Bill James noted some thirty years ago, usually the team which receives the single best player in a trade is (eventually) deemed the winner. Had the Pirates obtained Frazier it would have been him. Looking at the package they actually got it appears the best player in this trade is Cole. Advantage Astros.
Evidence that Frazier is going to be a star? He could just as easily be Eric Byrnes 2.0.
And the Astros did get the best player but if he pulls a Darvish and almost single handedly drags down a great team, which is possible, it will be hard to say they won the deal.
Yeah I definitely wouldn’t want my team getting Frazier back in a trade. I just don’t think he’ll ever overcome his swing and miss issues.
This is my feeling too. I know there are a lot of people who love Frazier, but I see nothing in his performance to date that says “star”, especially given that he may be limited to LF defensively and provide little value on that side of the ball.
IMHO, if the Yankees really thought “star” they wouldn’t be willing to give up 6 years of control for two years of Cole.
Frazier looks like he’s going to be a major bust. What numbers are you looking at? Every track on him the last 2 years is trending downward.
Elite prospects are hard to pass up on and everyone wants that elite prospects in these deals. If it were a player with more than two years of control, another ace, like Archer, who is a better pitcher to most estimates than Cole, then I can see a guy an elite prospects. They get #5 who hit 18 home runs last year, who hasn’t hit the majors yet. Something to develop. They get a #15 – an of who’s still at AA (Phillies have made several one on one deals for #10-20 type prospects for example as good organizational depth pieces). They get a young swingman who can get innings in the rotation (Nick Kingham, among others are on the way up in the Pirates system and they need a better look) and they get a hard throwing reliever, who if you look at his strikeout numbers, can throw eat. Makes a nice back end bullpen piece, something in need for the Pirates. Most people hate the return..honestly, I’ll take 4 young players of this caliber, for “2” years of Cole if I’m the GM, because you’re right, if one hits then that’s all you really need to equal the value out. This me me me go get the best stuff is out of hand. They got value for a guy they won’t be able to resign. If Cole we’re to get hurt this season or trend downward again, the return may not have even been that. Shelby Miller for example…pitchers have years that everything clicks…command..strikezone..hell weather and mental aspects play in. Cole is still an ace pitcher who has a chance at a ring as a 3 guy in Houston. Pittsburg got value. 4 players for one. They don’t Clint Frazier. Marte and polanco have their own value…. Instead of Frazier, they have a setup man, a starter, a 3b for the future, and an outfielder who can be ready in a few years. I like the trade. 4 for 1 is not a bad thing. I’ll take 4 Camaros over a Bugatti any day because the Bugatti is over priced and will fall apart and if that Camaros falls apart, you still have 3 more.
The guy who intrigues me in this deal is Feliz.
The stuff I’m reading about him is the same stuff I was reading about Felipe Rivero when no one was impressed by the return for Melancon. (It’s also what you read about guys who never pan out, too, of course), but 100 mph is a good building block to start with…
Taillon, Nova, Kuhl, Williams, ______. I’d rather they give Glasnow every chance to succeed as a starter given his upside. Unless they trade Nova, I’d rather see Musgrove as a multi inning guy out of the bullpen (with Brault as a lefty version) where he had great success.
They all intrigue me. for various reasons. No one in Pittsburgh was upset when the Bucs dumped third baseman who at age 27 never showed much power,. Never started hitting with power till his age 29 season in Toronto. The rest is history for Bautista. Who is to say that this does not happen with Moran too. Who says that Cole and his homerunitis was not just a fluke thing? Hope He gets it done for the Astros and these 4 guys get it done for the Bucs. Would be a great deal for all if that happens.
Feliz has nasty, nasty stuff. He lacks control. He could be a closer some day but he needs to learn how to
locate.
I hope Feliz can work out his control issues. He can really be a righty Rivero if he can get his pitches under control. Maybe with our pitching coaches, Feliz can get that problem solved quickly.
I thought the Pirates did good on this trade. Cole has been a mediocre starter the last 2 years. Pirates are a small market team and get controllable pieces out of it. Astros get a #3 starter out of the deal. Thought it was good all the way around
A cool MLBTR poll would be predicting where the following Pirates are playing by the end of the year, I put in brackets who feasibly could replace them in ’18.
McCutchen (Meadows)
Freese (Moran)
Harrison (Kramer)
Mercer (Newman/Tucker)
Nova (Keller)
Marte (trade him for OF prospect)
Hudson (free agent RP)
Rivero (free agent RP)
Marte is 29, he needs to be moved to a contender at the deadline for a top OF prospect who is ready now (like Clint Frazier). Hudson and Rivero are trade bait who could be replaced easily via FA.
I think the Pirates should punt 2018 and let the kids play, because if they pan out, they might be right back in it by 2019, and that big ol FA market in ’19 is awaiting them to fill any holes they might have.
First… Rivero is under pirates control through ’21 hes not going anywhere
McCutchen, still hoping he stays but realistically he won’t.. Personally if it where me (clearly it isnt lol) I keep cutch and if he is doing MVP type give him a QO in the off season.. If he takes it fine more time to work out a deal. If he doesn’t and signs else where then get an extra pick which is probably about the quality we’d get now in trade. Unless someone offers me something that will help the MLB team by the start of 2019 besides addition by subtraction and salary relief.
Freese, will still be here just in a Bench role. Sean Rodreguez might not be though.
Harrison should still be here. “Best’ player on the team in terms of WAR and can be a game changer. If Harrison is traded it is the signal that the pirates don’t care about ’18 and probably ’19
Mercer will be looking for a job in the off season… little/no trade value. may resign at a cheap rate to be backup off the bench but doubt it.
Nova, won’t be going anywhere though he should. If the pirates are out of it by the deadline and he is not doing poor i can see someone trading for him as a depth piece.. but probably not and he’ll e a pirate to start ’19
Marte will be a Pirate at least until his final year.
Hudson maybe DFA’s the first month or two of the season and may not get picked up again for a MLB deal.
I think this deal ultimately helps both teams. Houston is definitely in a win-now stance, and Pittsburgh is looking to the future. Cole didn’t figure to be around at that point so why not get a few guys who have the potential to help out in a few years?
Fangraphs projects Cole to have a 4.16 FIP with the Astros. They project Musgrove to have a 3.87 FIP as a starter with the Pirates.
Can’t be right! Everyone says Musgrove stinks!
I don’t understand why Pittsburgh is getting grilled for picking quantity over quality here.
A combination of bitter Yankees fans who went from not wanting Cole to being angry they didn’t get him and Pirate media and “fans” general hatred for the team and everything it does.
Having said that, quality is usually a better strategy than quantity since quantity is easier to find.
Having said that, there is no evidence that quality was ever put on the table.
Exactly The only players we know were put on the table were Musgrove, Moran, Feliz and Martin. Any other name, including Frazier are all speculation. If the offer was truly better from the Yankees, then the Pirates would have taken it.
It all depends on your definition of “quality”.
How is Moran not “quality”? He was the 6th pick in the draft, has a decent MiL track record, and could be an average 3B for a few years.
Musgrove and Feliz look like they have the potential to give the Bucs some quality innings, especially if Searage can help them improve.
Martin is too far away to project anything, but if I had to guess he winds up being a 4th or 5th OF.
Not every player teams get back in a trade wind up being All Stars, and it’s unrealistic to expect that they will, especially when they guy traded – Cole – was no better than league average the last two seasons.
Marisnick is a good example here. Astros picked him up in Cosart trade a few years back along with Moran. Moran was the prize here. Jake, though not a star, was a vitale part of what Houston accomplished in 2017. He had a 2.0 WAR and defensively was a standout even winning a game with his arm. Injury kept him off playoff roster, but some would argue that players like Jake are the difference in good teams and WS Champions. And we got ’em as a throw in trade chip! Not all players returned have to be an All Star. If just one helps you win it all then the trade was an A trade.
Because the quantity is generally bad
Don’t think Pittsburgh got fleeced unless Cole shows them his 2015 numbers over the next 2 seasons. I would say they got a B-/C+ because they went for quantity over high upside. But if all 4 players contribute at the ML level they will get a lot of value out of this trade even if the players are around league average.
Pirates have made some boneheaded moves over the past few years and this is definitely one of them.
C or D. They had other suitors and they chose a bad package no matter if you view Cole as a mid-rotation guy or especially as a front line starter
What were the other suitors offering? Could be that no other offer was as good as this one. All we have is speculation as to what other teams were offering.
I voted “B” for both teams (not sure that makes sense).
The Pirates must have more moves on the way as their return speaks to them reloading, not rebuilding. Those two pitchers look like two good arms to pitch out of the pen in front of Rivero.
Moran is a very sketchy guy. He’s been dinged hard for bad makeup in the minors like refusing to run out a double play ball. He showed well last year and they may be just hoping for a good Age-26 Career Year from him in 2018.
The Astros must be hoping for Cole to be willing to make some changes to get back to being what he was as he moves toward free agency. They gave up two arms who could have helped out of their pen, but nothing else they had any use for.
Hot Stove handed out their grades. Harold hated it for the Pirates, Kenny defended it. while implicitly blaming Nutting.
Only way this makes sense for the Pirates is if they were convinced that Cole would continue his mediocre 16/17 performance and his value would have dropped by the deadline, making them take the best offer they could get now.
The Yankees are lucky they didn’t except their offer
Maybe the Yanks were offering a worse deal than what was being speculated on. Maybe the Pirates are lucky that that the Astro’s offered what they ultimately took.
Bold prediction: Morin will repeat the fate of Andy LaRoche, Musgrove ends like Ohlendorf or Locke. Brace yourselves, Pirates fans, our pain is just beginning.
The Yankees won the trade.
Only if Cole stinks it up in Houston and every starter for the Yanks turns in pretty good to great years..If Cole is even just pretty good and the Yanks lose one veteran starter to injury or someone else has a down year. the Yanks lose for not making this deal work.
He’s going to pitch a sub 3 ERA for Houston and those vast AL West pitchers parks will do him good, he gave up the shortest distance homers for giving up so many. He will be an ace after the Houston pitching coach gets a hold of him.
In my opinion, both teams for what they were looking for. If they didn’t, neither team would have made the trade. The Astros want to enjoy their contention window. Using Cole as a 3/4 starter lengthens their rotation and gives them a huge advantage in match ups. That can and will be useful in the playoffs. They are banking on Cole remaining healthy. I think that if Cole remains healthy then the ‘Stros have a great chance to repeat. They gave up four pieces they do not need to obtain Cole. Musgrove is no longer needed as a starter in HOU. In Pit he will get that opportunity in the weaker NL in an environment where he can “learn on the job”. Feliz has had ridiculous K and BB numbers over the past few years. Perhaps Pit’s advanced scouting believe that he is an adjustment away from being a solid backend reliever? Moran is obsolete in HOU. He may be a relatively safe placeholder at 3b who they can flip when Hayes is ready, or who knows?
I am most intrigued with Jason Martin. He seems to me like an interesting below the radar prospect. He is obviously obsolete in HOU, but this is what I find interesting: per MLB.com prospect watch, hit: 50, power: 50, run 45, arm: 40, field: 50, overall: 45. He is also 22, so he has been playing significantly young in every league for his entire MiLB career being how he finished the season last year in AA. His slashline between A+ and AA .278/.332/.487 with 19 HR (11 of them came in the homer-suppressing Texas League) and 16 SB’s (11 CS). His strikeout rate was a little bit under 25% and his walk rate was around 7%. As a 22 year old with plenty of room to grow, I see some potential in him ranging between a solid fourth outfielder to a possible solid MLB regular OF. If he can increase his walk rate to 10%, cut his strike out rate below 20% and continue to take into his power, along with learn how to steal bases, he may become a very special player.
tl;dr. Win/win.
I gave them a B. I think what a lot of people are forgetting is the pirates probably have the best pitching coach in searage in the game. How hes not been given a HC is beyond me. Rather have him then andy green tbh.
But, there’s a lot to like about musgrove and feliz. And if they can turn feliz into what they did to rivero he becomes worth more than cole.
If Feliz and musgrove posts rivero type numbers the next 2 years the pirates can flip one or both along with rivero for an immense influx of talent to build a contender.
If you can turn Cole into an everyday 3B, 2 reliable RPs and an OF of some kind, you won that trade. That scenario is certainly still in play.
Moran is a beast flat out. He plays hard and uses his tools perfectly. He’s got that Steel City grit and you are going to love him.
Searage is great don’t get me wrong but Verlander wasn’t having such a hot season until he came to Houston and was able to use all the Houston tools. Also look what DK became with Strom’s help. DK was basically nothing and then became an elite. Morton has also become a different pitcher with Strom and crew. Cole is going to be lights out after he takes to the Astros system, I bet he will be even better than he was in ’15
To me, i think its a tale of two styles.
Searage seems old school go with a pitchers strength to build confidence, which works certain pitchers
The astros seem very analytically new school driven, morton and think it was his curve against the yankees is a prime example. Works for certain pitchers.
I’ll give it a D.
I just feel like the Pirates didn’t shop hard enough.. Cole is controlled for 2 years and is cheap. There are a ton of teams that need SP and are the fringe of contention. Where were the Twins? Where were the Blue Jays? Where were the Red Sox? Where were the Brewers or A’s?
Perhaps I am reading the market wrong. But it is hard to imagine the Pirates couldn’t have gotten a better deal.
Yes, where were the Twins, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Brewers, and A’s??? From the reports, all came shopping. Your second part of your post is why your first part is wrong and you hinted as to why you were wrong in the last part. If even one of those teams offered more, Cole would be going to spring training with a different team. I believe a lot of us are reading the market wrong these days. The Pirates have been listening on Cole for a long time. Shopped him strong this off season. Really hard at the winter meetings apparently. The only way the Pirates turn down a better deal is if it were from a division member and it was not significantly better than what they got for Cole from the Astros.. A marginally better deal is not worth sending the guy to a team that you are directly competing against.
I just feel like the Pirates should have allowed this potential return to leak a bit more. I still think it is hard to imagine other teams seeing this return and not giving up more(unless teams know something we don’t)
I mean I’d expect Cole to get a similar return to Sonny Gray.. The return didn’t come close.
How do we know that they did not tell the other teams what they were offered? What gets leaked out is what the teams want their fan base to hear. The Yankees, if they do not want to meet what the Pirates ask for, may leak out that they wanted more. Same with the Astro’s Both in an effort to scare other’s off and to placate the fan base that they did not miss out on a deal, they simply would not meet “outrageous” demands. What is said behind closed doors is a complete other thing. No one leaks true offers to the public because the do not want to screw up a potential deal or ruin chances for future deals.
I dunno. I wouldn’t be surprised of the return the Pirates got for Cole outperforms (total MLB WAR) the package the A’s got for Gray.
if Cole stays whete he had been the last two seasons and two of those guys become starters/contributors, it’s a wash.
That’s pretty funny, 1,429 Rangers and Yankees fans voting C,D and F on the Astros grade. The tears are so delicious!
Pirates are going to look like geniuses when Adams and Frazier both turn into scrubs and Moran turns into a quality regular.
(now watch the butthurt trolls downvote this very truthful post)
Not before Cole sports a 2.75 ERA and leads the Stros to another easy breezy WS title. They turned Verlander into a gem from being almost run out of the bigs.
We shall see how Verlander looks now. Small sample size with the Stros. The excitement of a new team is over now. Grind again. Hope for the Stros sake Verlander repeats what he did after they got him last year.
Verlander was actually pitching well in his last few starts before going to Huston
When he knew he might be moved. Like I said, hope for his sake and the Astros sake, he repeats the end of the year when it returns to more of a grind instead of a change. Rooting for Verlander. Just have to wait and see since Verlander is entering his year 35 season with over 2500 innings pitched already.
Verlander was far from being run out of the bigs at the time of the trade. The change of scenery and move to a contender undoubtedly gave his game a boost but he credited the Astros coaching staff and their use of advanced analytics as being a game changer for him. I have to believe that the Astros brass have identified some tweaks to Cole’s game that could similarly benefit his production. Putting him into a rotation with some experienced vets and taking away the expectations of being the staff ace should also help if he’s willing to listen/learn. The Astros staff has not missed in terms of player analysis recently so they must be confident they see know how to help him regain his past form. I believe Moran can be a solid major league 3B and that Musgrove will top out as a good #3 starter if they don’t keep him in the pen. Overall I see this as a fairly even trade with the Pirates the long-term winners.
Well done on your fair analysis. A agree with the change of scenery. The only downside to Verlander is the sheer number of innings he has thrown and his age. Rooting for him to repeat this year. Will be soon that the number of innings will finally take the toll. Hopefully not too soon as fun to watch him pitch. I have posted where I agree with you on Cole. He should be better since he will not be pressing to be the ace now.
From the Astros Stand point they won this trade imo. For the pirates this trade will depend on musgrove. I don’t see the other players they got doing much to be honest
Pirates should have taken nothing less than for Musgrove and Tucker or Fisher. If they dont move Cutch, this deal gets worse for them. They improved some depth but missed on major roster improvements for the future.
Astros stole Cole in this deal. None of the players traded had major contributing roles on the roster.
So, the Bucs do not move Cole because no team wants to give what you say the Bucs should have demanded and he has the same year he had last year with Pittsburgh and they get offered less at the deadline. Makes total sense to me.
PS neither of the other two had major contributing roles on the roster either as they are still prospects.
The only way this works for the Bucs is if either Musgrove can start or Moran becomes a viable everyday third baseman, neither of which strikes me as very likely. They could have done this well or better at the deadline.
It’s up there with one of the worst trades Ive ever seen. Basically Cole for Musgrove. I can’t imagine what goes through these gm’s minds to make these terrible deals.
Even Keith Law said it was a bad trade. I rest my case. When Keith Law doesn’t lie and cheat about it, you know it’s an absolutely abysmal trade.
Pittsburgh won the trade. Steamer projects Cole to a 4.12 xFIP, 4.26 ERA, and 2.6 WAR in 2018. His velocity is there. The results aren’t. Those are #4 starter numbers.
Meanwhile, they got a 25-y/o Musgrove and a 24-y/o Feliz in return. Either of those guys can contribute in roughly the same capacity as Cole right now.
Moran should be an upper-tier 3B offensively. His hit tool is outstanding and he developed some power last year in AAA. Too bad he was blocked in the majors–and that he cracked a heater off his face as soon as he was called up.
Martin is athletic and already in the high-minors.
Look past the big name. Lunhow must see something in Cole. Look past the big name, big fastball, and wicked breaking balls. Worthless if you can’t command them. Unless we have some sort of Brent Strom magic pixie dust on hand, he’s a JAG.
Just as a side note, fans love the big names, but the big names aren’t what wins championships. It’s filling the holes on your team with solid contributors top to bottom. That’s always been the case.