As Opening Day draws closer, we’re beginning to see the unfortunate penalties for players who overestimated their markets at the offseason’s outset. A number of our top-50-ranked free agents have fallen well short of the expectations we had for them, including three players ranked in our top five (Masahiro Tanaka excluded) who’ve been guaranteed at least $35MM less than we predicted.
That group includes Mike Moustakas, who so far seems to be the abnormal offseason’s biggest victim. We thought “Moose” would receive a guarantee in the $85MM range, but he ended up settling for a contract with the Royals that’ll pay him just $6.5MM, including a buyout of a mutual option for 2019. Logan Morrison and Jonathan Lucroy have also signed deals that guarantee them that exact same amount, despite the fact that they were widely expected to earn far more money. It should be noted that Moustakas has $2.2MM in available incentives in 2018 based on plate appearances, while Morrison can earn an extra $1.5 MM in similar fashion and can increase the base value of his 2019 option (or even cause it to vest) based on his 2018 plate appearances. However, these are excruciatingly small consolation prizes compared to the money they hoped to earn at the start of the winter.
The biggest subject of the offseason of course, has been why it’s been so unusual. But one of the more obvious answers is that the league-wide home run surge has likely resulted in a league-wide devaluation of power. That would certainly explain cooler-than-expected demand for players like Moustakas and Morrison, both of whom slugged 38 homers last season but had notable flaws elsewhere in their game. That Lucroy’s power mysteriously evaporated entirely might have contributed to the evaporation of the market for his services.
Regardless, these players are all likely to provide excess value on their respective contracts. bWAR and fWAR generally agree on their values in relation to replacement level last season; Moustakas was worth somewhere around 2 WAR, Morrison close to 3.5 WAR, and Lucroy about 1 WAR. And even though Lucroy rated the least valuable of the three, it’s worth noting that he plays a premium position and been an immensely valuable player in the past (both offensively and defensively). Even a modest bounceback from the outgoing Rockies catcher could result in a solid season for the A’s.
Below are the Steamer and ZiPS projections for these players, taken from Fangraphs.com. As with any projections, they should be taken with a grain of salt.
Lucroy:
Steamer: .273/.347/.427, 11.8 Defense Rating, 2.9 fWAR
ZiPS: .298/.365/.449, 3.6 Defense Rating, 1.7 fWAR
Moustakas:
Steamer: .268/.328/.494, 2.1 Defense Rating, 2.7 fWAR
ZiPS: .267/.318/.485, 1.5 Defense Rating, 1.5 fWAR
Morrison:
Steamer: .249/.340/.461, -11.6 Defense Rating, 0.7 fWAR
ZiPS: .255/.345/.477, -10.8 Defense Rating, 1.9 fWAR
Who do you think will provide the most value on his $6.5MM contract? Here’s a poll link for app users.
I think the Royals got the best deal w/ Moose.
As a rebuilding club they could possibly flip him for a substantial return.
Lol doubt it
Yea, they’ll trade him at the deadline, but nobody is gonna give up a substantial amount for a half season for Moustakas.
If he has a big season and a team needs a third baseman or some power,I’m sure someone would give up decent prospect for him. Nothing fancy but I think the Royals will be able to get some young players back to add depth to thier farm system if they end up moving him, Duda, Jay, Duffy, Etc.
Doubt it
If he couldn’t get anything better than what he got no one going to trade for him
Headley will be more sought out than moose
I highly doubt that, and I’ll go ahead and make an observation/prediction. Royals send Moose to the Twins for a middling prospect or two.
Twins look competitive and more likely than not, Sano will face some sort of suspension for DV.
Royals get maybe a couple of young A-ball arm lottery ticket for half a season of Moose and don’t have to worry about him abusing them past this season.
I agree that “substantial” probably isn’t accurate. But given his low salary, he’ll be an option for even a smaller market club who finds some success, and the Royals won’t have to pick up any of his salary to get a good return.
That of course assumes that Moose actually plays reasonably well and doesn’t completely flop, haha.
The issue with this logic is the same issue he faced this year in free agency. How many teams that will be competing need a 3b/1b type with his profile? I guess if some contender has an injury, it’d open a spot, but barring that, his trade market is likely to suffer the same way his free agent market did.
Injury, underperformance by another player, or a team making a run that isn’t expected to (say the Braves) are a few possibilities I can think of. I definitely wouldn’t be shocked to see a team or teams getting the Royals on the phone in a few months.
How many of these teams that aren’t expected to compete are going to be able to do so while receiving sub 2war pace at 3b?
I certainly understand your point that it is possible that some team finds themselves with a need at 3b, but he is also not the only option at 3b. There are, arguably, better available options to him as well. That’s why I brought up “a player with his profile”.
There is a reason no one wanted him for that price
Yeah, the qualifying offer.
Lucroy could provide the most value considering his position and if he can bounce back to his 20+ homer season and decent average.
Agreed. Most upside. Everyone could use a great catcher if he gets his act together on hitting and framing.
Exactly why I voted for him in the poll
Remember Chris carter he belted nearly 40 homers but had a short change contract. Power doesn’t mean anything hitters was hitting a juice ball and it was proven after the 2015 all star game.most these of these didn’t hit a great avg. so why pay a guy high money when they only good season
I wonder who came up with $6.5M for each and how/why.
With the guys hitting in front of him, Morrison could easily be an MVP candidate.
WHAT, seriously?
And the padres will win the World Series this year
That’s not that far fetched.
The Padres are an up an coming team but the thought of them actually winning the world series this season is certainly a far fetched proposition
Drugs are bad kids. Stay in school.
Remember me in late Aug
Will never be able to forget you…
Rest assured, I will remind you of your prediction every time I see your name in the comment section.
CubsFanForLife, one of the easiest handles to remember(for obvious reasons,lol). I look forward to our conversation later in the year. But I must add that I said ‘could be’. Lets say he had,say, .275/35/110. Youre saying thats not possible? Or thats not MVP candidate numbers?
and the astros will be in the cellar
For the price I do like Morrison more than JDM signing. Redsox should have held out they were bidding against themselves
I honestly don’t think there was traditional collusion on the part of the owners, more of a “collective coming to their senses.” Still, when I read an article that within a few sentences surmises that “…one of the more obvious answers is that the league-wide home run surge has likely resulted in a league-wide devaluation of power” followed by “That Lucroy’s power mysteriously evaporated entirely might have contributed to the evaporation of the market for his services” is kind of odd. Can’t get paid if you hit with power, can’t get paid if you don’t.
I don’t think anyone came to their sense. Just all of these guys had huge flaws, and guys like JD, Hosmer, and Darvish all got paid. Lots bargins this year but I think we will see huge deals next year and teams like the Yankees, White Sox, Angels, Dodgers, Red Sox, Cubs, Nats, and Philles are gonna make it rain.
That’s pretty much what I mean by “came to their senses” – no Sandoval contracts, and even the guys who got paid generally came in under what had been doled out in recent years. Completely agree that we may all need umbrellas next hot stove season.
So bruinsfan then bases upon your comment I would say the owners indeed came to their senses
It seems pretty simple. Most of the FOs are filled with Ivy League guys calling plays from the same playbook.
To clarify what I think Kyle meant by that quoted sentence, teams aren’t valuing guys who hit 40 bombs a year because with the league-wide spike in power, they can easily replace that power internally; Lucroys power completely disappearing is especially troubling for the above reason, power is increasing so why is his decreasing?
Great point Tyler I was thinking the same
I think Lucroy is the best bet.Moustakous is overated in a similer way Sandoval was and no one wanted to make that mistake again. I’d say his contract is probably one of the worst non 100 million dollar deals in MLB history and is up there with some of the bigger ones too. Morrison plays first base and this year will likely see time mostly at DH. I don’t get why Lucroy had such little market. I guess the Nats didn’twant to have 20 million locked into risky catcher.s
He’s a 31 year old catcher his best days are behind him for his position. Only a matter of time before he’s a light hitting first baseman
Great name
Thank you
16 candles
Dong? Where is my automobile?
Yes, you all got it thanks
Lake,big lake
Id rather have morrison at first base then anyone else on the twins roster
With these guys signing recently, I can’t figure how Hosmer got that size of a contract.
It’s the Padres enough said
There’s a sucker born every minute.
He had two rebuilding, low-payroll teams dead-set on him based off emotional reasons, not what his stats show his abilities are
The two created a good old fashion out-of-control bidding war with eachother that left them both willing to comically overpay just to get what they determined they absolutely needed and couldn’t find elsewhere (his personality and how they hope it will affect others)
Take one of the two out of the equation and who knows how much his contract would have dropped (the other probably would have still overpaid, but likely not to the extent the Padres did)
Hosmer got his deal since AJ Preller bid against himself. Even so Boras still fell way short of his demands
It’s almost like you guys at Trade rumors don’t know what you’re talking about. Good thing you aren’t agents.
It’s a special thing when a club makes a long term commitment to a player. They are under zero obligation to do so other than public pressure being applied. Then, it’s a cost benefit analysis STILL probably generated from emotion.
Tough question – and probably shows why they had the difficulty they did.
I dont have too much faith in Morrison as the league hadn’t adjusted to his new approach for most all of the numbers he put up – with his 2nd half when guys did start adjusting likely indicating more what he’s in store for in 2018
Between Moose and Lucroy? I lean towards Lucroy because of his On-base skills and power you would expect to make at least some comeback.
Moose really does just have the one skill across his entire game (HR power) and relying so heavily on just one skill to carry worth is difficult.
Lucroy has the potential to bring in the biggest return. Oakland is great at choosing renaissance players and teams like milwaukee and texas may need a deadline pick me up, lucroy is somewhat familiar with those pitching staffs.
Morrison will return the best value by far just from the lineup he is hitting in.
If he doesnt tear anything driving to the stadium, LoMo has a very good shot at 100 rbis (i value rbis more than homeruns) with Buxton and Dozier hitting in front of him.
Moose is the most talented of the three but The KC lineup is scary bad.
Stop calling these players victims. You played yourself. These guys have a track record of inconsistency. The only person who took a 1 year deal on purpose was lucroy because he wants to rebuild value. Morrison obviously is defensively limited, doesn’t have an amazing career, and is basically a platoon bat. Moose has a .300 obp and subpar defense. Not victims. Morons.
Victim? Will these players be requesting food stamps or govt aide? $6,5 mil is poor?
Agents and the union must be writing this.
Victim? $6,5 mil is poor?
Agents and the union must be writing this.
Logan Morrison even put in the same convo as the others in this poll is flat ridiculous. The guy is trash and scum
I voted for Moose, I think Lucroy’s best days are behind him. LoMo is what he is, but still relatively good value if he can repeat his season… for their careers I would take Lucroy, for 2018, I would take Moose.
Meh. I wouldn’t be shocked if none of these guys impresses this season. Lucroy couldn’t hit the ball out of the park in historically the most power friendly season ever. Morrison has been sub-replacement level his entire career. Moustakas rotates between all star and unplayable. The teams have the same stats that we have (an even better i’m sure). They should be happy they didn’t have to go the Chris Carter route