Yesterday, it was reported that the Astros have agreed to a five-year, $151MM extension with Jose Altuve that’ll keep him in Houston through his age-34 season. As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd mentioned yesterday, the deal will be by far the largest extension ever given to a second baseman, handily topping the $110MM given to Dustin Pedroia by the Red Sox in 2013.
It’s also just the sixth deal in MLB history that comes with an average annual value greater than $30MM. A win above replacement is widely believed to be worth around $8MM, so it seems likely that Altuve could still provide the 4-ish WAR per year necessary to provide the Astros with surplus value on this new deal. Indeed, the reigning AL MVP and three-time batting champ has been worth 14.3 fWAR across the past two seasons alone.
Of course, it’s not a given that Houston’s star second baseman can maintain that level of production through the age of 34. Although his strongest and most notable skill is his penchant for making good contact (with an astonishingly low swinging strike rate) and racking up hits, a large part of his value is tied up in his baserunning. Though last season Altuve stole 32 bases and managed a .339 BABIP on grounders, history says that his speed isn’t likely to stick around past age 30, at least not to that level.
Even as his speed starts to go, however, contact ability and plate discipline (Altuve carries an incredible 10.7% career strikeout rate) are skills that typically tend to age well. And there’s something to be said for the Astros keeping the face of their franchise around through 2024.
It’s not unreasonable to think that Altuve could have earned a larger guarantee if he’d waited to hit the free agent market following the 2019 season. But as with his first extension with the Astros, he’ll essentially sacrifice earnings upside for added financial security… and a whole lot of it, too. The contract ranks as the 31st-largest guarantee in MLB history. He’s now guaranteed life-changing money, with a chance to earn even more when he hits the free agent market again six and a half years from now.
At this point, we want to know your opinion. What do you think of the second Altuve deal from the Astros’ perspective? (Poll link for app users)
What about from Altuve’s perspective? (Poll link for app users)
Somewhat wary about giving huge extensions to guys who get a lot of value from their legs
He consistently hits at a mid-.300 clip, very high OBP, and decent power. He has a lot more value than just his stolen bases.
Sounds like a Joe Mauer profile after 2009.
Except Joe Mauer didn’t consistently hit mid-.300s and the most HRs he hit in a season was 11. So not really.
2009 .365/ .444
2010 .327/ .402
2011 .287/ .360
2012 .319/ .416
2013 .324/ .404
Not sure how you say he did not consistently hit mid .300s with high OB%. He did not drop below that until about halfway through his extension.
And the most HRs he hit in a season was 28. But that was MVP Mauer. Next highest was 13.
And you’re quoting his season after the extension, which leaves out a .347 season. His slugging was .450+ For most of those seasons too which definitely qualifies as “decent power”
I’m not sure I would compare Altuve to Mauer. Different body types who play different positions. At 6’5”, Mauer was bound to break down at some point. He still puts up a solid average, but never hit for much power.
Joe Mauer also played the most physically demanding position on the field for most of his career, which has been shown to cause extreme regression in even the greatest to play the catcher position. Altuve won’t experience that type of regression because the physical demand on him isn’t nearly the same.
Yeah, Mauer and his anemic singles hitter 834 career OPS
You don’t understand what he means when he says “legs”. Not just stolen bases but also that ability to get on base and hit for average. A large part of why he can do that is because of how fast he is. It’s why nobody is predicting a large regression because of a large babip. However with time he will loose that speed and ground balls which were typically hits for Altuve will be outs.
This guy isn’t Jacoby Ellsbury.
He’s hit 24 home runs back-to-back years.
Other than that random *** season Ellsbury hit 32HR, he’s never cracked the 20 HR plateau, when Yanks gave him $153 million over 7 years.
Furthermore, Ellsbury got that contract, 2 years older than Altuve. As soon as the ink dried on that contract, I knew we were going to be in for a long ride, for Ells’ 30’s (His age-30 season, was year 1 of 7 😉 )
He’s also not Juan Pierre. He’s Jose Altuve!
What the Hell does Ellsbury have to do with this?
Brixton says he’s somewhat wary, giving huge extensions to players who rely on their speed.
Most people would tell you Ellsbury is a player who relies on speed. Both got $150M (Ells 7 yrs, Altuve, 5)
Sure, Ells was a FA, but extensions can come in the form of overpays, too. Despite Ells being a far inferior player to Altuve (sans 2011 😉 ) I like him as comp to Altuve, as player who relies on his speed, that got a big payday, and now declining.
I felt Brixton made Altuve sound like a typical decline candidate, who’s game relies mostly on just one tool (speed) but he’s a far superior (and a complete) player to your traditional “speed busts” like Carl crawford, Jacoby Ellsbury… etc.
The Juan Pierre player comp was a joke 😉 Because Juan Pierre… speed.. no power.. Nvm,.. Go away, Carl.
Take a couple weeks off till the season starts.
I believe in saying he gets a lot of his value from his legs he didn’t just mean stolen bases. Defense and the high batting average will decrease when the legs start to go. I’m concerned about the timing of the deal. Similar to Miguel Cabrera’s deal (although not nearly as bad) the Astros extended Altuve at his absolute peak value and while they still had two years of control remaining. On top of that, in a market where free agents aren’t getting large contracts. Great player, not a horrible deal, but not nearly the slam dunk many MLBTR commenters indicate.
Cabrera isn’t near the athlete Altuve is and even with some regression in speed that doesn’t drastically affect hand-eye coordination that hasn’t been seen since Tony Gwynn.
That’s exactly what I am saying – athleticism fades quick. Hand eye coordination as in putting the bat on the ball? Cabrera has the highest active BA and walks at a much higher rate than Altuve. Also Cabrera could always hit. Altuve has only peaked recently. By the end of his contract he will be a 12 HR 290/320/390 2nd baseman
That’s still a quality second baseman, and also Altuve has always been a high average hitter, his earlier numbers are lower than they should be because of aggression at the plate that is no longer as prominent causing regression.
For the position that Altuve plays the regression he’ll experience won’t be nearly as significant as a Mauer or Cabrera who play power positions. When you were already slow to begin with regression will hit you harder. If you have natural speed and great hand eye cordnation you are less likely to go through extreme regression.
Later details: $21MM is in bonuses, $1MM at the time of signing, $10MM later in 2018 and $10MM in 2019, effectively increasing his 2018 salary to $16MM and 2019 salary to $16.5MM.
What uthink this is dee gordon? Or juan pierre??? Get real, Altuve is a Super Star.
I would give extensions like this to guys like Altuve long before I would give them to a pitcher.
B for both sides.
Astros get High AAV, for short term (5 year extension)
Altuve gets $30M AAV for 5 years.
Perks: Full No-trade clause.
I’d say an A for Altuve compared to what happened in free agency this year. That’s just me though, I see why you gave it a B.
Superstars will not be affected at all by the slow market. No one in this years free agent class was a superstar
I voted B. but I won’t argue with an A. This is pretty fair for both sides. good aav for Altuve you could make the argument he could have gotten more in FA but if he likes playing in Houston then why risk it. And the Astros only have to pay him through age 34. But this dude is such a hard worker and has skills that can translate to a HOF career and can sustain numbers into his mid to late 30s imo.
$30million a year ! How is this Altuve sacrificing any earnings ?
It’s a good deal for him don’t get me wrong. but I wouldn’t be shocked if he could have gotten more in FA. maybe not AAV but more overall. I wouldn’t say he sacrificed anything. 30 mil per is still an exorbitant amount of money.
I give it an N, for Nobody cares.
Dude is garbage.
You also get an N for your post trolling/content.
Come on, ttinsley1434! I wanted Judge-man to fare better, in his 2nd place finish, (still expected 2nd place) but you have to appreciate great talent, when you see it.
Haven’t seen it
I prefer to be called a Drive by Commenter rather than a “troll”. That hurt my feelings, I’m going to my safe space now.
i’m the only troll
The original Troll! You are my hero!
Yup!
Ttinsley, u r proof dumbasses still roam the net. He’s the reining mvp, batting champ, hit leader, hof in his future.
Typing out those 4 extra letters too much for you?
Altuve won all those awards and got all those stats through a corrupt system. Where’s Robert Mueller when you need him?
The Astros are better than the Yankees and it’s not close.
Lol, stop trolling, dude. Astros have the advantage in the rotation, while the Yankees have the advantage in the bullpen and offense. They are actually very close.
But the went to a game 7. That would be the definition of very close.
The Astros have the games best offenes
I’m taking the Yankees’ 1-9 over the Astros’.
Listen I like Altuve and appreciate his talent as much as any fan of baseball should. But hit leader and batting champ are essentially the same thing. He is nowhere near HOF status at this moment and his MVP is a farce honestly. Judge was better defensively, OBP, Slugging, HR, RBI, OPS, WAR AND he did this in his rookie season. The reason Judge didn’t win MVP is all narrative. If he hadn’t had that lull for 2 months he would have taken the MVP easily. Bottom line is they both are amazing players, but Judge does more offensively than Altuve.
WAR was a tie. Covered this in “Altuve wins MVP”
“WAR (Tie)
There are two different sites that calculate WAR. One’s not really better than the other.
Judge leads Altuve in FanGraphs WAR (8.2 to 7.5) Altuve leads Baseball-Reference WAR (8.3 to 8.1)
Case for Aaron Judge:
Led AL In: OPS (1.049 minimum 500 at bats) HR (52) Runs (128) BB (127)
Second In AL: RBI (114) SLG (.627)
Case for Altuve:
Led AL in: AVG (.346) Hits (204)
Led Judge in Hits, 2B, 3B, AVG, STL, Less K (84 to 208)
Second In AL: SB (32) Runs (112)
Judge Vs. Altuve
Judge leads Altuve in OBP, SLG, OPS, WRC+
Judge more than doubled Altuve in: HR (52 to 24) Walks (58 to 127)
Judge beat Altuve in UZR (+6.1 to -1.9) DRS: (+9 to +3)
Why Judge lost:
Hitting .228 the 2nd half of the season.
Ended the season with 208K.
Astros won 101 games. Yankees won 91 games.
The end Result? Altuve got 27 of 30 first place votes, and Judge didn’t even get all of the remaining first-place votes; Rustin Dodd of Kansas City Star put Jose Ramirez first, dropped Judge down to third in MVP
Again I expected Altuve to win… but not in this lopsided fashion. It should’ve been closer, the voting didn’t do Judge Justice.
I think out of all of Judge’s 2nd half struggles—strikeouts is what did him in. Nobody’s asking for AL MVP results, to be tight like NL MVP But did anybody else expect AL MVP race to be a lot closer Lol
Like I said though, most of the stats pointed to Judge as the MVP. It was all narrative. No altuve and the Astros still make the playoffs, probably even win in that division. No Judge, and the Yankees cruise to a third place finish and early winter.
2B is a much more defensive demanding position than RF ! No way is Judge better than Altuve defensively !
Agreed, worst player in MLB. Astros won in spite of his god awful performance.
Still salty the Yanks are going to play second fiddle to the Astros for the next decade, huh?
Sorry to burst your bubble but nobody is set up better than the Yankees for the future. Loaded ML team, loaded farm, and a ton of money to spend in free agency.
A ton of money? They’re barely below the luxury tax threshold as it is.
I don’t think the “ton of money” was in reference to 2018, but beyond. Now that the Yankees have reset their tax penalty, I don’t suspect they’ll be trying to stay below the tax threshold.
Expect them to balloon their payroll if need be in 2019 and beyond. But they may not need to if even a fraction of their youngsters pan out.
Correct. After resetting the luxury tax, I expect the Yankees to blow past it.
A++ Win-win for both sides…
Including the two team options this is a 7yr $163 million, which seems perfectly reasonable seeing as the Astros are paying for mainly prime age years. Seems like a win win
A big win for Altuve. Others in his category in the upcoming year or two (Mookie Betts, Nolan Arenaudo, etc.) would be wise to consider following Altuve’s lead and sit down with their teams for extension talks.
For Altuve, this was a no brainer given how little amount of money will be out there after the 2018 season is over; and Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Clayton Kershaw, Josh Donaldson, etc. get paid. By the time 2019 Off season rolled around, just how much dough would have been there, and which teams would have that kind of money to spend?
Even after taxes and agent cut, that is still a royal fortune. If planned efficiently, Financial freedom for entire family, grandchildren, and great grandchildren and beyond.
Almost a win/win for both sides….the fact it’s back loaded gives the A to Altuve and the B to the Astros…..next couple years the Astros should get 6-7 WAR from Altuve and his last 2 years he will probably get 2 or 3 so the average of the contract is right but being back loaded means Altuve’s value will decrease the Astros should of front loaded it so they pay less on the backside
Back loading it makes more sense for the Astros too, as they are built to win now, they want financial flexibility now, not later when Altuve is declining
It’s not backloaded. It just doesn’t start until 2020. He is already under contract through 2019.
No so backloaded. Later details: $21MM is in bonuses, $1MM at the time of signing, $10MM later in 2018 and $10MM in 2019, effectively increasing his 2018 salary to $16MM and 2019 salary to $16.5MM. That leaves an AAV of $26MM.
I think altuve is the most likeable player in baseball right now, he got me to root for the astros. Its a great pr move and an awesome move for baseball to see a player have a chance to have a hof career with one team
Plus Altuve is a huge leader in that clubhouse ! You can’t put numbers on that .
Besides the OBP and middle infielder power that is worth paying for (remember there are only so many guys who can be on the field at once, power at a position of mostly punching Judy’s is worth more than power in RF)….some of that money is in good faith for the insane value he provided the past few years on his current contract. The one he is also on another two years, effectively letting the Astros have all the financial freedom they need to go for broke the next few years.
It’s insane how much of their core is still controllable for the next few years.
It always a really stupid idea to extend somebody who is at the top of the game and has two more years of control. Is there any way Altuve can increase his value after having his 2017 MVP performance? Doubtful. Altuve is currently sitting at the height of his career. HIs value will either be just as high or lower than it is today.
In short, the Astros should have waited at least another year before making an extension offer.
He would also be a year closer to free agency and less likely to do an extension.
Altuve haters need to be banned from baseball
The Altuve extension begins to establish the level for an extension of Lindor by the Indians.
Maybe. Lindor would need to get on Altuve’s level first though.
It’s crazy with all these big contacts to guys that not mike trout. What is he worth 40 million a year
$45+ million AAV. Harper will get $40 million AAV and then the next year Trout will top that.
It would have been better for Altuve if he’d gotten them to tear up his current contract and start the new deal in 2018. Other than that, good deal for both sides.
Why would the Astros do that? They have two more years of control at a lower salaried contract. Would you do that as an owner?
There are precedents for it.
Essentially they did that. $21MM of the deal is signing bonus: $1MM immediately, $10MM later in 2018 and $10MM in 2019.
I’m happy there’s no opt-out. That’s very important.
I gave it a B. It did not save the Astros any money and he is one bad day from an injury that makes him the next David Wright contract. But it is also the type of contract I was hoping my Orioles would have given Machado last offseason.
Mike Trout is one bad day from an injury that makes him the next David Wright contract.
This! ⏫
According to Jay Jaffe in an article about Kershaw’s next contract on Fangraphs, a point of WAR is worth $9 million for 2018 and will go up 5% per year. That means that when this extension kicks in for the 2020, it will be worth about $10 million per point. If he produces just 4 WAR that would mean a solid surplus value for the Astros. He has averaged over 7 WAR the past 2 seasons.
On average, teams are paying 4 million per WAR. That is after 2 years of 2% per year average increases. This year looks like it will be negative.
Payroll deflation until a new CBA is entirely likely. That 30 million today could easily look like 40 million in todays dollars in 5 years
Of course, if revenues continue to increase (which is where the 9 million/WARbcomes from) it wont matter that he will consider to be overpaid
But isn’t the WAR amount figured for free agency?
Big contact, but he puts up good numbers and worth the scratch. Also a good signal to other players on the team that the team is willing to pay. Keeping that core together is going to come at a cost.
Or there’s less room now to keep all of the band together.
It cant be an A for both parties. LOL
Blah blah blah
As an Astros fan, I feel your pain. Living your whole life without a World Championship is hard and you start to think it may never happen. Luckily, it finally did for us and it may happen for you one day in the future.
But being the way you have been should embarrass you, why continue to bash another team/player, it is coming off as jealousy. Perhaps you should just focus on your team and stop trolling. Otherwise we may be forced to throw it in your face how close you guys were to winning it all in 2016 but blew it in extra innings, and also that yall had the better record in the AL this past year but couldn’t even get out of the first round against the wild card team after being up 2-0. I know you won’t enjoy it if we have to do something like that.
Huge A for altuve, maybe a C for Astros. Lots of gambling for that kind of dough.
I can’t wait to pound the yankees in the playoffs. They score 4 runs in 4 road games and claim the series was “close” bc it went 7 games. You New Yorkers need to stop running your mouth and just watch this Astros dynasty take place.
So how many WS championships do the Astros have vs the Yankees? Don’t even need to include the ones before the Astros became a team.
Just curious, where in the baseball handbook does it show the relevancy of past championships to future ones? Asking for a friend.
Don’t you just love Yankee fans. My team is in the same div and I am mature enough to admire the man’s skill. Grow up and watch a great player when you have the chance to see one. How many one hit wonders have we seen? Judge could come out and fall flat on his face. I doubt it and hope not. I would also be more apt to root for him more if he wasn’t a Yankee because then we wouldn’t have to listen to stupid comments like some of these. Anyway grow up and enjoy greatness when it is here and remember it is not only on your team. I know some of you Yankee fans think the AL all star team should be all Yankee players but there are other good players out there.
“My team is in the same division”..which team is it you own?
You gotta write that one down, that’s hysterical
Where in the handbook does it say that Championships that were won in the past don’t count ?
They count as past accomplishments, but they don’t bring much to the conversation to keep bringing up the Yankees number of Championships when talking about current/future baseball. Most Yankee fans online are like a wife that always brings up that one incident that happened years ago everytime they start losing an argument and try to throw a hail mary to get the upper hand and possibly win the argument. Problem is, it does nothing to win the fight, and only makes that person look petty and unable to come up with a valid rebuttal.
How many do they each have in the last decade, a more relevant comparison since Reggie Jackson and Derek Jeter aren’t walking through that door. both teams have 1 title each in the last decade.
How is that even relevant at all ?
Since you’re brand spanking new to this “winning” thing, you need to win more than once to be considered a dynasty. Ok, Sparky?
Ironically, most Yankee fans aren’t even from New York and are only fans because either they started to like them because of their past success and the notoriety that has come with it or because they started watching them because they were playing well at that particular time or because their parents were fans.
Basically, most Yankee fans are bandwagon fans and latched on because of their success rather than geographical location to them. So most Yankee fans are only used to this “winning” thing because they went with a team that has won a lot.
Where do you live rivera42?
That’s all Fanwagon people! Not just Yankee ones! Look at the current ones , also known as Cub Fans! (UGH)
There have always been tons of Cubs fans, though there might be a few more now. Being Astros fans, we have seen first hand the amount of Cubs supporters since we were in the same division for many years. They would fill up our stadium at times and sometimes be louder than the Astros fans.
there is risk involved in any deal. but for jose…..he’s getting paid for what he has produced at a much lower salary and doesn’t have to worry about his future $$$$ even if he gets in a car crash and is unable to play baseball again. for the astros, they’re keeping a home grown star who has been the key to houston’s revival the last four years. always possible big contract makes makes him lazy but unlikely. it looks like a win-win deal.
I’m in agreement here with Lance here in Jose 1st contract hee agree to a lower amount & still showed his great value with never a public comment & now Jim Crane is showing his graditute & making things right so in my book they are both stand up people & that’s worth more than money can buy.
He’s already made life changing money
Astros are gonna need to be careful with who and how much they sign for correa and keuchel extensions are coming soon.
Astros won’t be resigning Keuchel after this season, unless salaries are depressed again and they can get him relatively cheap. He had 2 great years followed by 2 years where he had significant time out due to injuries, though he pitched great last year when he was healthy. Astros just have too many pitching prospects in the pipeline and positional players that need to be extended to sign an ageing pitcher who might have health problems moving forward.
Yup.
Last year he was 9-0 before DL; 5-5 after.
I can’t wait until he gets popped for being on the juice.
What’s interesting is that they gave him the extension 2 years early. What if he gets hurt? Or declines? Why now? Also interesting that Altuve is represented by Boras, who generally advises his clients to go the FA route. Yet Boras’ clients took a bath doing that this year. Maybe he read the tea leaves (the existing CBA will still be in place 2 years from now) and advised Altuve better the bird in the hand. Smart for Boras/Altuve. Worry about years 35 and beyond later. Get rich now.
A for Altuve without a doubt, C- for the Astros. They had two cheap years of him left, I really don’t know why they felt the need to extend him now. Did they even pay attention at all this off season? Have they noticed what one guy making $30 million per year can do to your team?