Yesterday, it was reported that the Astros have agreed to a five-year, $151MM extension with Jose Altuve that’ll keep him in Houston through his age-34 season. As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd mentioned yesterday, the deal will be by far the largest extension ever given to a second baseman, handily topping the $110MM given to Dustin Pedroia by the Red Sox in 2013.
It’s also just the sixth deal in MLB history that comes with an average annual value greater than $30MM. A win above replacement is widely believed to be worth around $8MM, so it seems likely that Altuve could still provide the 4-ish WAR per year necessary to provide the Astros with surplus value on this new deal. Indeed, the reigning AL MVP and three-time batting champ has been worth 14.3 fWAR across the past two seasons alone.
Of course, it’s not a given that Houston’s star second baseman can maintain that level of production through the age of 34. Although his strongest and most notable skill is his penchant for making good contact (with an astonishingly low swinging strike rate) and racking up hits, a large part of his value is tied up in his baserunning. Though last season Altuve stole 32 bases and managed a .339 BABIP on grounders, history says that his speed isn’t likely to stick around past age 30, at least not to that level.
Even as his speed starts to go, however, contact ability and plate discipline (Altuve carries an incredible 10.7% career strikeout rate) are skills that typically tend to age well. And there’s something to be said for the Astros keeping the face of their franchise around through 2024.
It’s not unreasonable to think that Altuve could have earned a larger guarantee if he’d waited to hit the free agent market following the 2019 season. But as with his first extension with the Astros, he’ll essentially sacrifice earnings upside for added financial security… and a whole lot of it, too. The contract ranks as the 31st-largest guarantee in MLB history. He’s now guaranteed life-changing money, with a chance to earn even more when he hits the free agent market again six and a half years from now.
At this point, we want to know your opinion. What do you think of the second Altuve deal from the Astros’ perspective? (Poll link for app users)
What about from Altuve’s perspective? (Poll link for app users)
Somewhat wary about giving huge extensions to guys who get a lot of value from their legs
B for both sides.
Astros get High AAV, for short term (5 year extension)
Altuve gets $30M AAV for 5 years.
Perks: Full No-trade clause.
I’d say an A for Altuve compared to what happened in free agency this year. That’s just me though, I see why you gave it a B.
Superstars will not be affected at all by the slow market. No one in this years free agent class was a superstar
I voted B. but I won’t argue with an A. This is pretty fair for both sides. good aav for Altuve you could make the argument he could have gotten more in FA but if he likes playing in Houston then why risk it. And the Astros only have to pay him through age 34. But this dude is such a hard worker and has skills that can translate to a HOF career and can sustain numbers into his mid to late 30s imo.
$30million a year ! How is this Altuve sacrificing any earnings ?
It’s a good deal for him don’t get me wrong. but I wouldn’t be shocked if he could have gotten more in FA. maybe not AAV but more overall. I wouldn’t say he sacrificed anything. 30 mil per is still an exorbitant amount of money.
I give it an N, for Nobody cares.
Dude is garbage.
A++ Win-win for both sides…
Including the two team options this is a 7yr $163 million, which seems perfectly reasonable seeing as the Astros are paying for mainly prime age years. Seems like a win win
A big win for Altuve. Others in his category in the upcoming year or two (Mookie Betts, Nolan Arenaudo, etc.) would be wise to consider following Altuve’s lead and sit down with their teams for extension talks.
For Altuve, this was a no brainer given how little amount of money will be out there after the 2018 season is over; and Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Clayton Kershaw, Josh Donaldson, etc. get paid. By the time 2019 Off season rolled around, just how much dough would have been there, and which teams would have that kind of money to spend?
Even after taxes and agent cut, that is still a royal fortune. If planned efficiently, Financial freedom for entire family, grandchildren, and great grandchildren and beyond.
Almost a win/win for both sides….the fact it’s back loaded gives the A to Altuve and the B to the Astros…..next couple years the Astros should get 6-7 WAR from Altuve and his last 2 years he will probably get 2 or 3 so the average of the contract is right but being back loaded means Altuve’s value will decrease the Astros should of front loaded it so they pay less on the backside
Back loading it makes more sense for the Astros too, as they are built to win now, they want financial flexibility now, not later when Altuve is declining
It’s not backloaded. It just doesn’t start until 2020. He is already under contract through 2019.
No so backloaded. Later details: $21MM is in bonuses, $1MM at the time of signing, $10MM later in 2018 and $10MM in 2019, effectively increasing his 2018 salary to $16MM and 2019 salary to $16.5MM. That leaves an AAV of $26MM.
I think altuve is the most likeable player in baseball right now, he got me to root for the astros. Its a great pr move and an awesome move for baseball to see a player have a chance to have a hof career with one team
Plus Altuve is a huge leader in that clubhouse ! You can’t put numbers on that .
Besides the OBP and middle infielder power that is worth paying for (remember there are only so many guys who can be on the field at once, power at a position of mostly punching Judy’s is worth more than power in RF)….some of that money is in good faith for the insane value he provided the past few years on his current contract. The one he is also on another two years, effectively letting the Astros have all the financial freedom they need to go for broke the next few years.
It’s insane how much of their core is still controllable for the next few years.
It always a really stupid idea to extend somebody who is at the top of the game and has two more years of control. Is there any way Altuve can increase his value after having his 2017 MVP performance? Doubtful. Altuve is currently sitting at the height of his career. HIs value will either be just as high or lower than it is today.
In short, the Astros should have waited at least another year before making an extension offer.
He would also be a year closer to free agency and less likely to do an extension.
Altuve haters need to be banned from baseball
The Altuve extension begins to establish the level for an extension of Lindor by the Indians.
Maybe. Lindor would need to get on Altuve’s level first though.
It’s crazy with all these big contacts to guys that not mike trout. What is he worth 40 million a year
$45+ million AAV. Harper will get $40 million AAV and then the next year Trout will top that.
It would have been better for Altuve if he’d gotten them to tear up his current contract and start the new deal in 2018. Other than that, good deal for both sides.
Why would the Astros do that? They have two more years of control at a lower salaried contract. Would you do that as an owner?
There are precedents for it.
Essentially they did that. $21MM of the deal is signing bonus: $1MM immediately, $10MM later in 2018 and $10MM in 2019.
I’m happy there’s no opt-out. That’s very important.
I gave it a B. It did not save the Astros any money and he is one bad day from an injury that makes him the next David Wright contract. But it is also the type of contract I was hoping my Orioles would have given Machado last offseason.
Mike Trout is one bad day from an injury that makes him the next David Wright contract.
This! ⏫
According to Jay Jaffe in an article about Kershaw’s next contract on Fangraphs, a point of WAR is worth $9 million for 2018 and will go up 5% per year. That means that when this extension kicks in for the 2020, it will be worth about $10 million per point. If he produces just 4 WAR that would mean a solid surplus value for the Astros. He has averaged over 7 WAR the past 2 seasons.
On average, teams are paying 4 million per WAR. That is after 2 years of 2% per year average increases. This year looks like it will be negative.
Payroll deflation until a new CBA is entirely likely. That 30 million today could easily look like 40 million in todays dollars in 5 years
Of course, if revenues continue to increase (which is where the 9 million/WARbcomes from) it wont matter that he will consider to be overpaid
But isn’t the WAR amount figured for free agency?
Big contact, but he puts up good numbers and worth the scratch. Also a good signal to other players on the team that the team is willing to pay. Keeping that core together is going to come at a cost.
Or there’s less room now to keep all of the band together.
It cant be an A for both parties. LOL
Blah blah blah
As an Astros fan, I feel your pain. Living your whole life without a World Championship is hard and you start to think it may never happen. Luckily, it finally did for us and it may happen for you one day in the future.
But being the way you have been should embarrass you, why continue to bash another team/player, it is coming off as jealousy. Perhaps you should just focus on your team and stop trolling. Otherwise we may be forced to throw it in your face how close you guys were to winning it all in 2016 but blew it in extra innings, and also that yall had the better record in the AL this past year but couldn’t even get out of the first round against the wild card team after being up 2-0. I know you won’t enjoy it if we have to do something like that.
Huge A for altuve, maybe a C for Astros. Lots of gambling for that kind of dough.
I can’t wait to pound the yankees in the playoffs. They score 4 runs in 4 road games and claim the series was “close” bc it went 7 games. You New Yorkers need to stop running your mouth and just watch this Astros dynasty take place.
So how many WS championships do the Astros have vs the Yankees? Don’t even need to include the ones before the Astros became a team.
Just curious, where in the baseball handbook does it show the relevancy of past championships to future ones? Asking for a friend.
Don’t you just love Yankee fans. My team is in the same div and I am mature enough to admire the man’s skill. Grow up and watch a great player when you have the chance to see one. How many one hit wonders have we seen? Judge could come out and fall flat on his face. I doubt it and hope not. I would also be more apt to root for him more if he wasn’t a Yankee because then we wouldn’t have to listen to stupid comments like some of these. Anyway grow up and enjoy greatness when it is here and remember it is not only on your team. I know some of you Yankee fans think the AL all star team should be all Yankee players but there are other good players out there.
“My team is in the same division”..which team is it you own?
You gotta write that one down, that’s hysterical
Where in the handbook does it say that Championships that were won in the past don’t count ?
They count as past accomplishments, but they don’t bring much to the conversation to keep bringing up the Yankees number of Championships when talking about current/future baseball. Most Yankee fans online are like a wife that always brings up that one incident that happened years ago everytime they start losing an argument and try to throw a hail mary to get the upper hand and possibly win the argument. Problem is, it does nothing to win the fight, and only makes that person look petty and unable to come up with a valid rebuttal.
How many do they each have in the last decade, a more relevant comparison since Reggie Jackson and Derek Jeter aren’t walking through that door. both teams have 1 title each in the last decade.
How is that even relevant at all ?
Since you’re brand spanking new to this “winning” thing, you need to win more than once to be considered a dynasty. Ok, Sparky?
Ironically, most Yankee fans aren’t even from New York and are only fans because either they started to like them because of their past success and the notoriety that has come with it or because they started watching them because they were playing well at that particular time or because their parents were fans.
Basically, most Yankee fans are bandwagon fans and latched on because of their success rather than geographical location to them. So most Yankee fans are only used to this “winning” thing because they went with a team that has won a lot.
Where do you live rivera42?
That’s all Fanwagon people! Not just Yankee ones! Look at the current ones , also known as Cub Fans! (UGH)
There have always been tons of Cubs fans, though there might be a few more now. Being Astros fans, we have seen first hand the amount of Cubs supporters since we were in the same division for many years. They would fill up our stadium at times and sometimes be louder than the Astros fans.
there is risk involved in any deal. but for jose…..he’s getting paid for what he has produced at a much lower salary and doesn’t have to worry about his future $$$$ even if he gets in a car crash and is unable to play baseball again. for the astros, they’re keeping a home grown star who has been the key to houston’s revival the last four years. always possible big contract makes makes him lazy but unlikely. it looks like a win-win deal.
I’m in agreement here with Lance here in Jose 1st contract hee agree to a lower amount & still showed his great value with never a public comment & now Jim Crane is showing his graditute & making things right so in my book they are both stand up people & that’s worth more than money can buy.
He’s already made life changing money
Astros are gonna need to be careful with who and how much they sign for correa and keuchel extensions are coming soon.
Astros won’t be resigning Keuchel after this season, unless salaries are depressed again and they can get him relatively cheap. He had 2 great years followed by 2 years where he had significant time out due to injuries, though he pitched great last year when he was healthy. Astros just have too many pitching prospects in the pipeline and positional players that need to be extended to sign an ageing pitcher who might have health problems moving forward.
Yup.
Last year he was 9-0 before DL; 5-5 after.
I can’t wait until he gets popped for being on the juice.
What’s interesting is that they gave him the extension 2 years early. What if he gets hurt? Or declines? Why now? Also interesting that Altuve is represented by Boras, who generally advises his clients to go the FA route. Yet Boras’ clients took a bath doing that this year. Maybe he read the tea leaves (the existing CBA will still be in place 2 years from now) and advised Altuve better the bird in the hand. Smart for Boras/Altuve. Worry about years 35 and beyond later. Get rich now.
A for Altuve without a doubt, C- for the Astros. They had two cheap years of him left, I really don’t know why they felt the need to extend him now. Did they even pay attention at all this off season? Have they noticed what one guy making $30 million per year can do to your team?