This is an especially exciting day for baseball because it marks the first time Angels righty-throwing uber-prospect Shohei Ohtani will start a meaningful major league game as a pitcher. We already got a glimpse of the 23-year-old Ohtani as a hitter on Opening Day, when the Angels slotted him in at DH and the lefty-swinger went 1 for 5 with a single in a loss to Oakland. He’ll turn around Sunday and face the Athletics’ lineup, which features feared sluggers in Khris Davis and Matt Olson.
Ohtani drew Babe Ruth comparisons in his homeland because of his two-way ability, leading nearly every MLB team to vie for his services in free agency over the winter. Although, in his first action with the Angels during the spring, Ohtani was more Brooks Kieschnick than Ruth. On the offensive end, Ohtani went just 4 of 32 with no extra-base hits, 10 walks and three strikeouts. As a pitcher, he gave up eight earned runs on nine hits and two walks, with five strikeouts, during a pair of major league spring training starts.
Needless to say, it was an ugly exhibiton showing for Ohtani, though that’s not necessarily indicative of what’s to come. Ohtani’s adjusting to both a new country and the best baseball league in the world, after all, and he didn’t garner so much pre-major league hype for no reason.
As part of an excellent piece he wrote last May, MLBTR contributor Chuck Wasserstrom spoke with several scouts regarding Ohtani, and the consensus was that he’d parlay his impressive repertoire – including a 95 to 100 mph fastball, a splitter and multiple breaking pitches – into a career as a mid- to front-of-the-rotation starter in the majors. The scouts were less confident in Ohtani’s offense, though they nonetheless believed a year ago that he could serve as a quality big league hitter. He was certainly a threat with the bat in Japan, where he slashed .286/.358/.500 in 1,170 plate appearances.
As Ohtani embarks on his first season with the Angels, the Steamer projection system is calling for a .262/.339/.463 batting line across 249 PAs. That would make for a 116 wRC+, the same figure Joe Mauer posted in 2017 and just above the mark Christian Yelich put up. The Angels would likely be ecstatic with that type of production from the part-time DH, and it’s fair to say they’d also be on board with Steamer’s projection for Ohtani the pitcher. He’s forecast for 145 innings (24 starts) of 3.54 ERA/3.60 FIP ball with 11.17 K/9 and 3.62 BB/9. That output would be worth 3.1 fWAR, matching the 2017 totals of Gerrit Cole, Drew Pomeranz and Mike Leake. All said, if Ohtani were to meet Steamer’s two-way projection, he’d rack up 3.8 fWAR, which would likely put him in the running for American League Rookie of the Year and perhaps help the Halos break their three-year playoff drought.
We’ll begin finding out Sunday what Ohtani will bring as a big league pitcher, but what do you expect from him? Will Ohtani live up to the hype on either end as a rookie? Or will his subpar spring drag into the regular season? Weigh in below (poll links for app users)…
Seems like a #3 Kenta Maeda type to me
He is nothing like Maeda whatsoever lol
i will be happy with that.
Ohtani is ranked #1 by Fangraphs and MLB.com
#2 by Baseball America
But outside Baseball Prospectus’ 2018 top-101
Why does Baseball Prospectus blackball Ohtani?
2018 MLB.com top 100: m.mlb.com/prospects/2018/
2018 Fangraphs top 100: fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-100-prospects/
2018 Baseball America: Subscription required
(So here’s their top 10 Free) link to cbssports.com/mlb/news/braves-ronald-acuna-claims-…
2018 Baseball Prospectus: baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/37535/bas…
Didn’t BP lose all their writing talent a couple of years ago?
Baseball Prospectus doesn’t count him as a prospect.
I think we will all figure out soon that this is an impossible feat. once Babe Ruth started hitting he never pitched again. You can’t successfully do both in the MLB.
Yeah, but what if… You have to do something. You cannot just not do anything.
Exactly. If Ruth is being called the comp, then Ruth needs to be the actual comp, and include the fact that even the greatest ballplayer to have ever lived could not succeed as both a hitter and pitcher.
We’ve going to find out pretty soon that Ohtani probably would’ve been a better fit on an NL team, where the ability of a pitcher to handle a bat still counts for something.
Look out below! Johnny Superscouts falling from the sky
Yeah, we all started watching baseball games yesterday
fasbal1……You might want to check history
1914-19 G 391 PA 1332 308/413/568
1914-19 GS 143 IP 1190.1 ERA 2.19
Ruth switched to fulltime OF when he was sold to the NYY and they valued the bat more than the arm. Even in 1919 when Boston used him more in the OF he started 15 games 133.1 IP ERA 2.97 and slashed 322/456/657 with a then all-time record 29 HR. in 130 G and 543 PA
He did both successfully over 6 seasons
Keep in mind MLB changed the ball dramatically between the 1919 and 1920 seasons.
Ruth’s pitching was during the dead ball era, his most prolific hitting with a live ball.
Gives his great career a little context.
And Ruth actually played the field when he hit. Just to give his career a little context. Ohtani didn’t want to go where he’d have to field…
True. Otani played the field in Japan but no MLB team would put a pitcher out there.
Dead ball era refers to the style of play only, it does not have anything to do with the ball itself.. It also does not negate the fact that he was successful at both. Ruth created the live ball era by bringing power to the forefront. He was successful at both for a sustained period to the point that he lead the leagues in ERA in 1916 with a 1.75 and 332.1 IP. and the following year started the live ball era by swatting 11 HR.
The ball itself was changed. The phrase definitely refers to the ball, which necessitated a certain style of play.
Ruth’s career was great, albeit against competitors that wouldn’t break AA today. But the change in ball does lend some content to his career.
The ball was changed well before Ruth…Dead Ball refers to the style of play…nothing else.
baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Deadball_Era
That very link says there was a change in baseball construction in 1919.
It says…..”Ironically, given the era’s name, the ball remained unchanged from the late 19th century until 1911, when it was made livelier[1] in an attempt to increase scoring.”
Keep reading. Granted, you have me on the 1911, I’ll give you that.
But in that link it states in 1919 they changed the yarn, had it wrapped by machine instead of by hand, and that pitchers said it was livelier.
I think we might both be right here.
You might need to read about baseball history. In 1920 the ball was changed; it became more tightly wound and, more importantly, umpires were instructed to keep a fresh, clean ball in play at all times. Before 1920 basically a ball would be used until it was hit into the stands or completely fell apart, and would be nicked and cuffed and crusted with mud sometimes. also, those balls were more like firm beanbags than the balls used today. Cooperstown has an exhibit of the balls used before 1920 and you would be astounded at how soft they are. The 1911 ball, while still soft, was just slightly firmer. The 1920 ball is much more like the ball used today.
And yet in 1919 the top 3 totals were 29, 12, 10…1920 they were 54,19,17…. 1921 they were 54,24,23. It wasn’t until the late 20’s that baseball started to catch up to Ruth consistently. If others had started to produce at a high rate in 19, 20, 21 I would agree with the pitchers assessment.
Want a really good look at Ruth……read “The Year Babe Ruth Hit 104 Homeruns”.
Can’t compare 1920 players to today’s. Different eras. The fact that Ruth dominated for two decades just made him head and shoulders above the rest.
thanks for info, still don’t think ohtani..has a shot at both
Nobody will put up Ruth’s numbers again.
But now that the league is integrated, there are minor league systems developing talent, players are in shape year round, and don’t have to work normal jobs, neither would Ruth.
Japanese baseball is high level, but it’s not MLB. The hype needs to go. Ohtani is a talented ball player, but he’s not going to be the first to play both sides of the ball – just like every other baseball player since, he’s not Babe Ruth. I wish Ohtani well, but he needs to focus on pitching.
He’s being touted not as the second coming of Ruth, but as even greater than Ruth. What are the chances?
No he’s not. No one is saying he is going to be anywhere near as good offensively as Ruth, either in projections or by fans. Steamer is projecting an 800 OPS, thats like a 5-7 hitter, and looking at the poll, over 70% of fans don’t think he will even do that. Pitching, he does have #1 potential, but again, no one is saying he is immediately going to be the best in baseball. A projected 3.9 war is not Ruthian, a guy who 10 times had a 10+ war.
I am not talking about the numbers, I am talking about his ability to succeed both as a hitter and a pitcher. If he can do it, he will be in that respect at least, greater than Ruth.
How is that better than Ruth? Ruth for his first 6 years succeeded as both a hitter and a pitcher, and could have continued to do so if he had been allowed. Plus he was a fielder as well. So Ruth did 3 things all at once, whereas Ohtani is only doing 2 of those.
Not really. In the first four years of his career, Ruth appeared at the plate as often as you’d expect a pitcher to bat in the years when pitchers regularly threw over 300 innings a season. In 1918-19, Ruth’s pitching appearances had already been cut in half and he was mainly playing OF. Those were the last years he pitched regularly. So in only two seasons can he be fairly said to have done both, and they were before he turned 25. Nobody knows if he could have continued doing what he did for only two years for the next 15 years of his career, but one thing we do know is that pretty clearly wasn’t the baseball wisdom at the time.
I think AAA is a higher level than Japan
Yeah I’ve seen Japanese players play worse in AAA than they would in Japan
Matt Olsen is a feared slugger?
For now lets say “projected” feared slugger
He had a .352 OBP .651 slugging, 24 HRs in less than 200 ABs last year. Definitely, he is a feared slugger and someone who can challenge Judge and Stanton for the home run leader this year.
never
So harvey can you name the hitters last year with a higher % of home runs to at bats in the MLB than Olson last year? I will be waiting for your answer.
Pitch to a 3.85 but with 12+ K/9
Slash a .240/.330/.450
Rick Ankiel who came in as a promising pitcher and it didn’t work out. Ankiel transitioned into a fairly respectable MLB outfielder and in fact has a book out..which I’m gonna read this week. He said today when asked about the possibility of Ohtani accomplishing both..there’s just no way to do it on the major league level.
I think Ankiel has 3 books out now all 3 are pretty good reads !
I can see Ohtani headed for either AAA or double A. He needs more time to use to everything and find his self
He’s not going to be great at either, most likely. But it sure would be fun if he could do both for a couple of years. Yet another reason the Angels are must watch tv.
What other then”it sure would be fun if he could do both” and Trout=”must watch tv”?
Slash .220/.280/.300 in 150 PA
Pitch 3.90 ERA with 9.5 K/9 in 130 IP
Crystal Ball: Ohtani gets knocked around enough as a pitcher in April to be set to the minors by the end of the month. Pitches better in the minors for a start or two until he is shut down and the Angels realize the problem is that he needs Tommy John. Gets surgery and rehabs back to the show by the end of 2019. Signs team-friendly contract extension during his rehab (6 years, 52 million). Settles in after that as a quality 3rd starter and the hitting comes around a bit after. Wins AL MVP after monster season on both sides of the ball in 2021. Ankle injury slows 2022 season, but puts up solid numbers for rest of contract (3.87 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 10.7K/9, 84 wins/.254/.337/.416). Goes FA after 2024 season, but ultimately resigns with Angels. 8 years, 274 million with opt out in year two and five of deal. Pitches great for first year of deal, but has second Tommy John in 2026. Comes back as starter, but ultimately moved to bullpen and becomes quality closer for several seasons. Does not opt out of contract. Hitting declines enough to only warrant pinch hitting appearances in last couple years of deal. Ineffective and moved out of closers role for middle relief in 2031. DFAed during spring training 2032. Released. Mariners pick up on minor league deal. Pitches and hits okay for Tacoma, but more publicity stunt than actual comeback. Called up to majors with Mariners in September, 2032. Hits homer run in final at bat. Retires after 2032 season. Hall of Fame debate rages for years after…..
Biff Tannen, is that you? Can you get me a copy of the Sports Almanac 2020-2070?
Called it!
1st Tommy John ✅
2021 MVP ✅
Watch those ankles in 2022!!!
I think this year he’ll be meh at both, but give him a few, and he might be great.
The MLB needs to get over this Ohtani clown show…. Dude is what he is, he is playing with the big boys now and it looks like he can’t keep up. This Angels team is going nowhere…. Let’s talk about teams and players with some relevance.
You should change your name to HaloStupid.
You’re just a bucketful of stupid, aren’t you?
Any team would be thrilled to have the #4 starter pitch 6 innings and keep his team in the game. He’s 23 years old, learning a new league with new hitters, throwing a different ball off a different mound, yet he made 6 hitters look silly with strikeouts and walked only 1.
The hype isn’t from the Angels or Ohtani, it’s from sportswriters looking for topics for articles. He’s claimed only self-confidence, and help up well in that regard today.
You could always follow the Dodgers.
There is the typically negative Angels comment.
You guys angry much? Don’t let my opinion ruin your day. Be bigger than that. Lolzzzzz
Happy Easter! :))
Media hype/cash in should be over soon.
How much $$$ will Moreno invest grooming him after one season.
Either SO figures himself out in our MLB game, or he disappears.
I doubt he produces well from the mound this season.
Despite no one seeing him before and there being no scouting report on him, he was used for batting practice the first time even inferior US-style hitters faced him this Spring. Facing true MLers and having the scouting reports getting around will likely make this worse and probably negate even any advancements he might make for a while.
Japan is fairly comparable to AAA at best to even AA game – making the jump as a Starter from AA to the Majors is extremely hard and often goes poorly (esp with a “fast but flat” fastball)
As far as hitting? I kind of doubt he’s still doing it come even the break – the Angels want to compete, and carrying his still-learning bat in the DH spot is going to be difficult for a competing team to justify.
Still feel he really should have started in the minors for both his careers sake, and the teams.
He could be average at both and the Angels still won’t be any threat to make the playoffs.
carl, our playoff hopes dont rest on his production dude.
another prophet. lets see by mid season. the smart bball people dont agree with you.
He’s gonna go 23-1 with a 1.97 ERA and hit .270/.395/.565
Should be interesting to watch the poll numbers change. Already hit 100 and dominated his first inning. Doesn’t look at all like he did in Spring Training.
Chapman = OUCH!
My bad. I rushed the negative feedback after the homer yet that’s all he gave up. Good job! I needed a refresher that one start either way means little.
its interesting to wait, watch, hope and encourage the possibilities here. I really want success on the mound more than anything. Having said that I will hope for the whole package. I dont see good fruit come from discouragement. Why do so many act like they want him to fail? Is it just to be looked at as baseball smart or a prophet? Just shut up and give the guy this season to adjust. No one should expect too much. He is, after all, a rookie people.
Fair projection?:
Pitching: about 14-15 wins,ERA somewhere 3.50’s.
Batting: 10-12 homeruns, .250-.260 average
Not really amazing statline, but solid overall.
Can I change my vote on the pitching success poll?
I also think that if you’re not in the MLB farm system. you should not qualify to be a mlb rookie.
When that title applies to said person
Totally agree. Ichiro never should have won ROTY back in the day just to name one.
I think he’ll hit .230 with 12-15 home runs. 50-65 rib
He’ll win 7 and lose 10. Next season they’ll have to give him an ultimatum either pitch or hit. Maybe in certain situations he could be a spot starter. Possibly for interleague play he’ll bat 5th and be the starting pitcher when in a NL park.
All the hate is amazing. Dude dominated today besides 1 pitch. Yall are so salty and soon most of you will be ridding his d***
Please talk differently.
What is ridding?
All the haters out there.. 1 game in the books and he is 1-0. ROY , coming to Anaheim.
Well otanei looked pretty good today on the mound 100 mph fastball & 90 mph splitter pitched 6 innings & gave up 3 runs really only made 1 mistake a home run.I will take that anytime for a 1st game oh by the way he won the game !!! Go Angels ☺
He beat the A’s. The short bus MLB equivalent. Let’s see him against the Cubs, Dodgers etc.
The A’s have a really good offense, and please get out of here with that “short bus” stuff. Mocking the handicapped is pretty weak.
I hadn’t heard that expression before. Wow, is it ever u-g-l-y.
Those pitching projections are optimistic. If he can post an ERA around 4 in his rookie year that’ll be just fine. He certainly looked good pitching today. Don’t see him matching the 11+ K/9 projection. That’s a little much for a rookie starting pitcher.