The assignment: Write a scouting report on Shohei Otani. Paint a very clear picture of Otani’s pitching repertoire – including pitch grades and major league comparisons. And that’s just on the mound; gather similar information about his hitting (and perhaps even fielding) capabilities.
The reality: I haven’t seen Otani pitch or hit, other than on highlight videos.
The solution: Reach out directly to those who have.
Rumors continue to swirl that the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters in the Japanese Pacific League could post Otani – their star 22-year-old two-way player – as soon as this off-season. As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd wrote in early April, “It has long been wondered just when he’ll make it over to the majors, but rule changes have conspired to gum up that possible transition. First came the application of a $20MM cap on posting fees, which reduces the incentive for NPB clubs to make players available before their control rights are set to expire. Then, the latest iteration of the CBA put hard caps on teams’ capacity to spend on international players who are under 25 years of age, thus precluding the possibility of Otani commanding a bonus befitting his ability until the 2019 season.”
What is the right-hander’s arsenal? What kind of power does the left-handed batter possess? Can Otani be a two-way player in the majors?
Over the past month, I spoke with five high-level officials with international scouting-related positions who work for MLB clubs – promising all of them anonymity – to talk about Otani, the 2016 Pacific League MVP. I vowed there would be no tipping off their identities; for example, you will not read a phrase even somewhat specific such as “a scout for an American League club” or “a scout with 15-plus years observing Japanese players.” Another parameter was established: money was not going to be part of our discussion. At the end of the day, those decisions are not made by the scouts; therefore, let’s just stick to a scouting report-related conversation.
In return, I received their thoughts on the player. And the overall consensus: They haven’t seen a guy like Otani in all of their combined years of scouting.
First, a reminder that Otani is working his way back onto the field after being sidelined by a muscle strain in his left thigh area – suffering the injury in an April 8 game against the Orix Buffaloes trying to beat out an infield single.
That was his second notable medical malady this year. He did not pitch during the World Baseball Classic due to a right ankle injury suffered during last fall’s Japan Series – which was re-aggravated in November. He did open this season as Nippon Ham’s designated hitter – batting .407 with two homers and five doubles in 32 plate appearances before suffering the thigh injury.
When asked, none of the scouts was the least bit worried about the latest injury. “Everybody gets hurt at some point, so it doesn’t change anything for me,” one scout said.
When he does return to active status, Otani is looking to build upon a stellar young career. In four seasons on the mound for the Fighters, he has gone 39-13 with a 2.49 ERA in 80 games (77 starts). He has thrown 517.2 professional innings, allowing 371 hits, 22 homers and 181 walks while striking out 595 batters. His career WHIP is 1.066, his career strikeout-to-walk ratio is 3.29-to-1, and he has averaged 10.3 strikeouts per 9.0 innings.
In 21 games last season pitching for the Japan League champions, Otani was 10-4 with a 1.86 ERA – and fanned 174 batters in 140.0 innings. He allowed 89 hits and 45 walks, giving him his second consecutive sub-1.00 campaign for walks and hits per 9.0.
The Fighters have been very judicious in the way they’ve handled Otani on the mound. His career high for games started is 24; his career high in innings pitched is 160.2. As a point of comparison, Yu Darvish pitched for Nippon Ham from 2005 (his age-18 season) through 2011 (his age-24 season). In his seven years with the club, Darvish threw 1,268.1 innings – surpassing the 200-innings mark four times.
“I actually see it as the organization viewing him as an asset – and they’ve protected him,” one scout said. “They’ve brought him along the right way, and they haven’t pushed him. They recognize that he’s still young and still growing, and they’ve really taken the time to research how the body grows. Knowing that he’s still growing, they’ve skipped starts when they’ve had to and scaled back when he wasn’t feeling that great. I honestly think that’s a testament to the organization and the kid for knowing his body.”
Said a second scout, “I think it’s awesome. It shows a commitment to him on their part. Look at (Masahiro) Tanaka or Darvish or (Kenta) Maeda; at 20 years old, they were already throwing close to 200 innings. Even at a young age, it was ‘Hey, you’re our ace. Go get them.’ But Nippon Ham has done an excellent job of protecting him. They’ve prolonged his career by not abusing him.”
As for his offense … Otani had 382 plate appearances last season as Nippon Ham’s designated hitter and recorded a triple slash of .322/.416/.588 with 18 doubles, 22 homers and 67 RBI. If there is a red flag in his game, he did show swing-and-miss potential, fanning 98 times.
“If he was a two-way guy in the States, you’d make him a position player first,” one of the scouts said. “John Olerud, Ike Davis, guys like that … if they fail hitting, then we’ll put them on the mound. But he’s been such a special talent from both sides of the ball. Nippon Ham was smart how they did that. They drafted him out of high school and let him do both. It’s almost like they told him, ‘We’ll let you continue to develop so that you can go to the States.’”
In putting together a scouting report, the 20-80 scouting scale was used. A grade of 50 is considered major league average; a grade of 80 is as good as it gets. Some grades – such as fastball velocity or running home-to-first – are based on actual radar gun readings or stopwatches. But specific tools like command, control, movement and athleticism – among others – are subjectively based on what the scout sees now and projects what it can become.
The present/future role grade is akin to the quick-and-dirty on a player. A lot of teams knock off the zero and use a 2-8 scale.
Present/Future Role (as pitcher): 6/7
After talking to the five scouts, the consensus was that Otani is a 6-7 – meaning a present grade of 6 (which translates to a No. 3 starter in the majors today) and a future grade of 7 (which is a No. 1-2 starter). For some scouts, putting a future 8 – a premium No. 1 starter – on a pitcher would take an act of Congress.
“As a scout, you hesitate to put an 8 on a guy even though your conviction may be very high,” one of those canvassed said. That scout has a 6-7 on him as a pitcher. “It wouldn’t be that far-fetched to put an 8 on this guy because it’s easy to dream on him that way. But you know how it is with scouts; we tend to be more conservative and not want to do that. But the ability is there where – if you wanted to put your neck out there – I think it wouldn’t be too much of an argument why you did it.”
Another scout said the only reason he won’t put a future 8 on Otani until after the pitcher has transitioned into pitching here. “There are going to be inherent changes,” he said. “How is he going to adjust to pitching once every five days as opposed to once a week? How is he going to adjust to a different baseball? How is he going to adjust to the travel? There are unknowns that all these guys – (Masahiro) Tanaka, (Yu) Darvish – have to go through and have to prove. But if he adjusts like I think he’s capable of adjusting, he’s an 8.”
Major League Comparisons
Four of the five scouts dropped the name Yu Darvish into the conversation. Two scouts said Justin Verlander. One scout brought up a handful of names, both past and present.
“I compare him to guys like Josh Beckett, Roger Clemens, Nolan Ryan … you know, power pitchers,” he said. “These guys were able to pitch with their fastballs and secondary stuff. If you look at Otani’s stuff and the ability to throw strikes, he’s right up there with the (Dwight) Goodens, the Ryans, the Becketts, the more modern-day (Noah) Syndergaards. The power right-hander. He has an 80 fastball, but he also has plus-plus secondary stuff and the ability to throw a ton of strikes and command the strike zone.”
One of the scouts discussed the Darvish comparison, but with some hesitation – about the Texas Rangers right-hander. “Pitching-wise, it’s hard to compare Otani to anyone because he’s 22 years old,” he said. “There’s nobody at 21 or 22 that has his kind of stuff – and command of the breaking stuff, too. Darvish would be the closest one. Otani’s throwing friggin’ 98-to-100 as a starter.”
One scout kept coming back to Verlander, the six-time All-Star. “Stuff-wise, it’s hard to find teams that have a pitcher with Otani’s kind of stuff,” he said. “He’s like Verlander when he was young. He doesn’t have the same kind of body, but it’s the same kind of stuff. He lights up the radar gun and throws strikes – and the ability to throw wipeout breaking stuff. That’s Verlander when he was young. He slots right into your big league rotation.”
Another scout said he’s been asked before to come up with a comparison pitcher, but can’t. “I don’t think there are guys out there stuff-wise that match up with him, period. Guys that can consistently sit where he sits and flash two 70[-grade] off-speed pitches and a split and a changeup. Just to mess around with you, he’ll drop in a curveball every once in a while that he can throw for a strike. There’s feel, there’s power stuff. You just don’t see that type of ability. There might be guys with better command, but it’s really hard to say that there would be a guy with better stuff and the physicality this guy has to maintain it.”
Fastball: 80
Every scout had Otani’s fastball sitting in the 95-100 MPH range. One scout said his velocity “is the same in the seventh inning as it is in the first. I’ve seen him sit 97-100 for an entire game. He didn’t throw a fastball below 97.”
Another said, “I’ve seen him 95-101, so it’s every bit of an 80 fastball. It’s life over movement, just because of how hard he throws … it’s one of those late life-type fastballs. Plus life to it.”
The key to the fastball, one scout said, was his command of the pitch. “He keeps his pitch count down,” the scout said. “Darvish – I remember seeing him at 120 pitches in the fifth inning because he used to nibble so much. Then he came over here and is aggressive. Otani does a really good job of keeping his pitch count down. Because of that, he doesn’t lose velocity; he maintains it. He’s got leverage to it; he’s got angle. He maintains his fastball velocity and it gets better as the game goes on.”
Split: 70
Across the board, the pitch graded out as a future 65 to 70. The velocities the scouts had ranged from the high-80s to 92-93.
“The split is at least a 70,” one scout said. “It’s pretty nasty. It has really good action, it’s late and it’s a swing-and-miss pitch. It’s definitely an out pitch.”
Said another scout, “It has late dive and moves enough that it misses barrels. And he’s still learning this pitch.”
One scout had only seen a fastball/slider combination – until last year, that is. “The split is the pitch I was probably most surprised about, as I had never seen him throw it before. It definitely looked like a pretty good pitch. He flashed a couple when the bottom dropped out. I saw a couple that had me put a 70 on it.”
Slider: 65
Otani’s slider is seen as a plus pitch. Two scouts have a 70 on the slider; the other three were a little more conservative at 55 or 60. The velocity readings were in the 82-87 MPH range.
One scout raved about the pitch. “The slider is every bit of a 70 when it’s right. It’s hard, it’s got power to it. It’s hard late, power tilt.”
Another preferred the split to the slider, although he called the slider “a plus pitch. It’s probably his third pitch, but it’s not a bad pitch to have as your third pitch. His slider is his best breaking ball; it’s at least a 55, maybe 60 future. I like the pitch, he just doesn’t throw it as much as the other two. I’ve seen him throw a couple of different ones. He throws one that’s more of a cutter, though I don’t think he calls it a cutter. It’s a short, quick pitch. And then he has more of a sweeping-type slider … you can call it a ‘slurve’ at times. I know he’s going to have to use it more when he comes to the States. But the more he uses it, the better it’s going to get. I think it will also be an out pitch.”
Curve: 50
Two of the scouts have barely seen him throw the pitch; the other three have seen it enough to classify it as a 50 or 55.
Said one: “He throws it at 75-80 MPH. He gets pretty bad swings when he gets guys to swing at it. It looks like a traditional curveball, it’s 11-5 … it’s a softer, shorter, down break. When he wants to throw it, there’s more power and life to it … he can really spin it. But when he wants to put guys away, the slider and the split are his pitches.”
Another said, “His curveball is very ordinary right now. I have a 50 on it. It’s a little bit inconsistent and it gets loopy on him. There is room for improvement if he wanted to keep it in his arsenal down the road. But right now, for me, it’s just kind of a ‘show me’ pitch that he throws occasionally.”
Changeup: TBD
There is a little debate amongst the scouts whether Otani has a true changeup in his repertoire. One of the scouts summed it up by saying “I think he relies on a split as his change. I haven’t seen it, but we have had guys that have seen him tinker with a changeup. I’m not sure if that’s something he’s doing now in anticipation of coming to the States or if it’s something he wants to start using more.”
Another said he has no doubt that Otani has the ability to add it to his stable of pitches. “Like Darvish and guys who have come over from Japan, Otani hasn’t really needed to throw a changeup. I think that’s the one pitch when he comes to the States that he’ll start to develop,” he said. “The Japanese can learn almost any pitch. They have a great feel for learning how to throw pitches and make adjustments. Tanaka pitches differently here than he did in Japan. Maeda pitches differently in the big leagues than he did in Japan. A lot of times, what they show you in Japan … they come here and they’re able to refine their stuff. Off the top of my head, I can’t recall more than a few changeups out of Otani. I’m sure he hasn’t had to throw them a lot. I think he’ll be able to learn anything he tries to do.”
– – –
Present/Future Role (as batter): 4/6
A subhead for this section should read: Do scouts for MLB teams think Otani can be a two-way player?
For four out of five scouts, there was some hemming and hawing. They all like him as a batter – especially the left-handed power. They all love him as a pitcher.
The fifth scout, though, is willing to dream.
“I’ve never said this about a player, but I believe he can be a two-way player,” the scout said. “There are good-hitting pitchers like Madison Bumgarner and Greg Maddux, but this guy is a legitimate offensive threat. How you balance his pitching and his hitting … that’s where it really comes down to a general manager and a manager and ownership. How much do you want to risk your ace pitcher running the bases or taking at-bats? But from an evaluation standpoint, this guy … if he was on my team, he’d be the fastest baserunner, he’d have the most raw power. I absolutely feel this guy can hit on a daily basis. Or if you wanted … you can pick-and-choose when you’d DH him or pinch hit him. But absolutely, this guy can be a two-way player. If anyone can do it, he’s the one.”
That scout said Otani’s a 6 as an offensive presence. “He’s going to be an above-average major league hitter with above-average power,” he said.
Another scout was put on the spot. “If your GM looked you in the eye and asked if Otani could be a two-way player, how would you respond?”
“I’d tell him, ‘If you were to go the two-way route, you’d have to be careful how you use him. I think it would be in a platoon role to protect his body and what he can give you on the mound.’ The upside is so important, and so hard to find,” the scout said. “I’d be somewhat hesitant to let him do it, but if you did, you’d have to space him out. You’d have to do more research about how a body breaks down after playing a position and pitching. When to rest him – and when not to – because those are two different ways a body works. He might be more susceptible to injury if you’re playing him every day like that – so I’d be hesitant to do it. But at the same time, if there’s anybody who can do it, it’s this guy.”
That scout said if Otani wasn’t a pitcher, he’d have a future role 6 on him as a position player.
“He has an idea at the plate; he knows what he’s looking for,” the scout said. “He handles off-speed very well for his age. He shows power from center to pull side, but very easily should have power to all fields as he learns a little more. I’m not really worried about him as a baserunner, but he has shown that he can be instinctive on the base paths. Overall, he has a chance to be an above-average corner outfielder if he were going to play it every day, but should settle in nicely as an average rightfielder with plus-plus power.”
Major League Comparisons
One scout said, “When I first saw him as a high school player, I saw him playing right field – and he reminded me of Paul O’Neill. At the time, I thought he would develop into a position player; the tools were there. But he’s become an even better pitcher than I thought. If he was a guy in the States and he was signed out of high school, I think he would have become a hitter first. His upside as a position player was pretty darn high.”
A second scout said Otani could be “Curtis Granderson-ish in his prime. Bunch of home runs, lower batting average if he doesn’t play every day, pretty good OBP, lots of walks, lots of strikeouts.”
Another scout, after summing up Otani’s offensive abilities, finished his thought by saying he couldn’t come up with a player comparison. “Good question – and I haven’t thought of one for him. To be honest, I haven’t really thought of it because I don’t think it’s going to matter.”
Hitting: 45
There was agreement across the board that Otani’s future grade as a hitter was in the 45-to-50 range.
“I think if he plays every day in the big leagues and he gets his at bats, he’d hit .260 to .275 with 20-to-25 homers,” said one scout.
Another scout echoed that assessment. “He’s probably 45ish. I think he would hit in the .260s with 25-plus home runs,” he said.
Power: 70
On the power scale, 20-homer potential is considered above average – a 55 grade – and 25 homers is a 60.
Considering that Otani had 22 homers in only 382 plate appearances last season, it’s easy to see why the scouts all have higher grades in this category.
Four of the scouts categorized him as having 70 power. A fifth even said he’s put a future 80 on that tool. “At the plate, he has an approach geared for power. Best case scenario, the hit tool will be average, but when he does connect, it’s pretty special power.”
Running Speed: 60
Otani has been timed at 4.1 from home plate to first base; for a left-handed hitter, that’s 60 running speed.
“I’m trying to think of a 60 runner, left-handed power bat like that,” one scout said. “It’s a tough comparison for me. I can’t come up with a hitter off the top of my head.”
“He’ll show you above-average running times down the line,” said a second scout. “I got Otani just under 4.1 down the line on a ground ball to shortstop. So he can run, and he has very good awareness and a very high baseball IQ.”
Fielding: N/A
The consensus is … the point is moot. None of the scouts envision him seeing enough outfield action to merit a grade.
That said, several of the scouts have seen him play right field. Said one, “He did show good enough instincts and read off the bat to be at least average or above. His routes and reads were solid, and he’ll catch what he gets to. Obviously, he has plenty of arm strength to make all the difficult throws in the corner. But because he hasn’t played out there in a while, it’s hard to stick your nuts out too far and say that he has a chance to be a plus outfielder.”
– – –
Makeup: 60
“Makeup-wise,” one scout said, “everything checks out. The kid is a great teammate; he’s got a good personality. He’s been wanting to come to the States since he was in high school, so this is something that he’s wanted for a long time. I don’t think there’s any hesitation on his part about coming over. There are no glaring red flares as far as makeup or ability or his desire to come over here and be a high-caliber pitcher or player. Every box checks out with this guy.”
Said another scout, “From everything I’ve heard, this guy’s makeup is tremendous. He’s a hard worker. He’s loyal. I watched him pitch last year … he pitched 8.0 innings, and he pitched great. The next day, he was the first one out for early hitting. He’s a good person with great makeup.”
Five scouts – and five quotes …
From Scout A … “I know he’s listed at 215 pounds, but he’s every bit of 6-4, 225-230 pounds from what I saw of him in the spring. This spring training was probably the first time you looked at his body and thought, ‘Holy s**t, this guy’s becoming a man.’ He’s putting on some muscle, and it was imposing when you see this guy in a uniform. You’re still looking at a frame that needs to be filled out. You’re now looking at a man’s body.”
From Scout B: “He’s the best player in the world that’s not in the big leagues, hands down. There’s nobody that’s close to him.”
From Scout C: “He’s a freak of nature. His running ability, his raw power, his arm. He has everything. This guy … it’s unbelievable what he can do and what he’s capable of doing. For me, he’s a once-in-a-lifetime type player.”
From Scout D: “He’s a special talent. It would be interesting under the old rules to see if he was posted straight up … if all 30 teams would be putting in a bid on him. It would be off-the-charts what he would sign for. It would be record-breaking. He’s that kind of a talent.”
From Scout E: “It’s kind of unchartered waters for all of us. As a club here in the States, you’re wondering, can he do both? Does a team value the bat as much as the arm? I think most teams value the arm and what he can give you on the mound, because what comes out is premium stuff. It’s four pitches of premium stuff with strikes and pretty good command. This is a kid that has continued to get better every year on the mound – and the arrow continues to point north. The command has gotten a little better every year. The strikeouts have gone in the right direction. But at the same time, everything you would want to see as a hitter has gone in the right direction as well. So, in the end, what you’re getting total package-wise is a possible frontline guy that can really give you value on the mound. Who’s to say this guy can’t play a position and pitch?”
– – –
Chuck Wasserstrom spent 25 years in the Chicago Cubs’ front office – 16 in Media Relations and nine in Baseball Operations. Now a freelance writer, his behind-the-scenes stories of his time in a big league front office can be found on www.chuckblogerstrom.com.
His market is obviously going to be Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers and Cubs
Well with the way the rules are now, his market will be literally every MLB team.
I imagine he will end up somewhere in the AL, but beyond that I dunno.
Ohtani would not benefit from an American League team because he is also a good offensive guy so he’d be most productive in the National league since he can hit
When’s he’s not pitching he could, I don’t know, maybe…DH in the AL or play the outfield/first base
I doubt any team would let him play the field so an AL team makes sense to me, if a team is really going to let him pitch and hit.
Nah you want him playing DH the days he isn’t pitching and then a day of rest and then pitch. At least that is my take on it
Pinch hitter occasionally but never DH, no team would ever take the risk of him getting injured from not pitching or not getting enough rest while not pitching.
Arguably, no team has ever had a pitcher that can hit like he apparently can. And what you’re failing to realize is that he has a TON of leverage when it comes to pitching/hitting. With no team being able to blow anyone else out of the water $-wise, many teams are going to need to find a unique sales pitch that works for him. If he’s dead set on doing both, someone will offer him the opportunity just for a chance to add that talent to the roster. And if that is the case, the AL makes much more sense so he can bat multiple times per week while still “resting” as the DH.
Well, there was this guy named Babe Ruth…
Teams are starting to look at two way players a little different than in the past. With escalating salaries and the need to extend the pitching staff it certainly makes sense. Granted, no team has pulled the trigger on this yet but there are some interesting two way players coming up in the June draft.
Babe Ruth wasn’t much of a pitcher. His numbers look good because it was the Dead-ball era and every pitcher had great numbers. You’ll notice that once they introduced the live ball Ruth never pitched again.
Wasn’t it because he was to good of a hitter to pitch, along with him in his advancing age, and weight gain causing him to theoretically become not athletic enough to pitch?
Ruth was an above average pitcher for his time, he just became a HOF hitter.
Sorry, I guess “ever” was a little too strong. I wouldn’t call Babe Ruth relevant to the discussion though. The game has changed a little bit in the last 100 years…
He’s already said that he’s only coming to the states if the team is willing to let him hit and pitch. If not he will stay in Japan til he can come as a true FA. I have this sneaky feelings no the White Sox are going to get him and let him do both!
Babe Ruth had a career ERA+ of 122 (100 is precisely league average). He was comfortably an above average pitcher for his career..
His 1916 season as a pitcher was brilliant.
I’m not sure where you’re getting this “wasn’t much of a pitcher” tripe from.
As much as I’d love to see him on the South Side, it’s not going to happen.
In Ruth’s last season as a pitcher he walked twice as many batters as he struck out. It was clear his days on the mound were numbered. The fact that he became one of the best hitters of all time probably helped.. His 1916 season was pretty much the only season he was a great pitcher. He also threw 323 innings that year and never pitched more than 167 innings after, so I’m guessing he wrecked his arm in that 1916 season.
Ruth to this day still holds records for lefty pitchers. There will never be another Babe.
When every team is basically going to be offering him the max I can guarantee at least one team will budge since that’s what he wants to do. May not be immediate but eventually he will be some sort of a 2 way player
Babe Ruth was the second best pitcher in the American League in 1916, and this at the age of 21.! Walter Johnson was better, but he was 28 and had been doing it for a decade by then. And he was basically just as good in 1917, and – when he pitched – in 1918 and 1919, though he was pitching less and less by then. But that was because they saw the potential in his bat, not because he “wasn’t much of a pitcher”. Ruth essentially came out of high school and was one of the best pitchers in the American Association, and then went to the majors and became one of the best pitchers in MLB. He set a record for consecutive scoreless innings in the World Series that took almost half a century to break. It stood longer than his 60 HR record!
That’s a bad guess. Go read his wikipedia page or something. Ruth was bored between starts and begged to play the field. The more he played, the more valuable as a hitter he became, so the less they used him as a pitcher. And this was before the end of the “dead ball” era. His 1917 season was worth 6.6 WAR. There are probably several Hall of Fame pitchers who never had a season as good as Ruth’s second best.
Check the stats Bro – the Babe was a very good pitcher
So under the new agreement, I under he gets a max-agreement of around $11 million (or something like that), but if every team will be on him, which presumably they will be, will that leave it up to him to decide what opportunity is best for him?
That’s the idea. Under the new agreement, Ohtani is basically going to get to pick which of the 30 teams he wants to go to and that will be that. In many ways, that just undercuts any chance most teams could have ever dreamt of having.
That’s what is stupid about the new rules. 75% of the teams have no chance here. I assume he’s going to look for:
1) Big market / star opportunity (NY, Boston, LA, Chicago, etc.)
2) Large Japanese population? (Seattle? SF?)
3) Deep pocket owners (NYY, Cubs, Boston, DC)
4) Winning teams/farm system over next 5 years or so.
Max agreement would require substantial trade of ifa pool money. If everyone is truly in on him you’ll see that pool money freeze up and Ottani make closer to the 5M or 300K allotted.
I think a smart team can REALLY take advantage of that… Obviously everybody wants him on their team, but you need to be realistic – he’s most likely not going to sign with a bottom feeder team.
I’m not sure whose pools look like what, but just for example, let’s pretend that nobody is in the penalty to start next year. Say the Padres have the largest pool. I think we can all be pretty positive that he’s not going to sign with them unless they find a way to offer substantially more money than anyone else (not likely).
Instead of trying to play that game, they could try to trade that pool money to a team that actually has a chance to get him for a legit prospect. I think they could play teams like the Cubs/Dodgers/Red Sox/Yankees off each other and end up with a very good prospect for that pool money. The opportunity for one of those teams actually in contention for Otani to offer him basically 2+ times the money than all the others could be a HUGE boost for them.
Like I said, I’m not sure what all the pools look like and who is in the penalty and what not, but I think it’s definitely worth a thought for a lot of small-to-mid market GMs.
This young man looks like the real deal. I really hope wherever he lands he can be something special…it’ll be great for the game. I just hope he can be the 2-way version of Mike Trout (really really good at everything he does) AND land with a franchise that won’t waste his talent.
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The Mets may actually be able to afford to sign a top int’l player. (Yeah..Ces..but that was after a trade and multiple years in the majors). I also worry about them wasting his talent bc they are too cheap to go all-in.
They have the location down, but I’m not sure they have the reputation that I’d want as a star player. If they can turn it around this year…MAYBE…but there are just too many other good ideas out there: Yankees, Dodgers, Mariners, Giants, etc.
Angels
I feel Ohtani should be a combination of reliever and DH. If he’s a SP, and pitches every week, I feel there’ll be more risk of injury (e.g. Tanaka and Darvish. Not sure about Maeda). Therefore by limiting his pitching duty as a reliever, he’ll still be a lights out pitcher who can pinch hit or be an everyday DH.
So you want a team to pay $20 mil post fee and lord knows how many millions to sign and retain the kid just to turn him into a less valuable asset? Relievers are payed less because they are viewed as less then starters, mostly because almost all relievers are failed starters, so due to skill and some due to injury.
I should probably say something along the lines of a swing man or long relief. I know $20m whatever the new rule amount is a lot for what I said, but is it worth having a SP that can be injury risk? Tanaka and Darvish didn’t really have a non-injury career in the MLB so far, so how would Ohtani handle the pressure?
…Rephrasing what I just said because I just realized what I said made little sense:
Tanaka, Darvish and Maeda were all fantastic pitchers in Japan. However, Darvish and Tanaka both landed on the DL regarding to torn UCL, and both missed (a minimum) half a season. Maeda has not had a UCL-related injury.
Then in comes Ohtani, a player who can bat and pitch well=above average. MLB pitchers has less rest days than Japan, so if Ohtani pitches like a SP in MLB, then he has a higher chance of getting injuried, due to additional stress load. Now add that injury risk with his batting. If a pitcher bats and pitches more, he has a higher chance of getting injuried then a regular player.
So what I’m saying is, have Ohtani be a swingman or long relief, so he doesn’t pressure his shoulder, like he would when he is a SP. The major con to my idea is….well, you’re spending $20+ million on the guy.
that’s nice but relief and hitting combined isn’t worth as much as an ace. he should start and if that fails maybe the bullpen.
Hoping he doesn’t get injuried then.
Yeah, if his pitching ceiling is Justin Verlander and his hitting ceiling is Curtis Granderson, teams are going to view him as a pitcher. If he wants to DH too, they’ll let him do it, because they’ll have to promise that to sign him, but really, it’s barely worth it if he gets swinging or baserunning injuries that compromise his ability to be an ace.
Please stop the all the spam and popups allowed through the mobile app. Cant even read the article
Nothing that we do intentionally should interfere that much with reading the article. Can you send a screenshot in through the contact form so we can take a look?
I’m in the same boat. It’s this one pop up that says I won some contest.
Like the other reader mentioned it was walmart gift card winner repeatedly showing up. The redirects to the app store are also painful. Great material on the site though
Sorry about that. Would be helpful if someone could take a screenshot and email it through the contact form on the MLBTR site … it would make it a lot easier to track down the problem ad.
Are we talking about the Trade Rumors app? Or the regular website while on a mobile device?
Tim,
I get the ads on both the app and the site itself. Not often so its not a huge bother, but next time i get one i will send you a screenshot.
Nice research and write-up, Chuck.
Timely too, as Shohei Otani could be the biggest international signing for the next several years, with Luis Robert now signed and the new rules coming into effect.
It’s also refreshing to read just about the baseball-player stuff and not the market/dollar aspects. That part will play out separately. I liked finding out what’s “under the hood”.
Thanks for doing this piece, MLBTR.
First, I want to say, the team that I root for is not the Rockies, but I would love to see him sign there and be the first guy to truly figure that place out, plus the potential 80 power he has to offer in Denver…..
Second, what kind of loopholes under this CBA could teams structure so that teams that are under penalty could potentially sign him? One of my thoughts were that a team under penalty could offer him the 300k on a 1 year basis so that he immediately hits free agency the following year and cashes in with no restrictions.
or sign for 300k then sign a major league extension immediately
I would imagine if that were the case, we would have seen teams exploit that loophole already.
Not really the new rule doesn’t go into effect until the new signing period. So needing to exploit loopholes in terms of Japanese players has never been necessary.
I was referring to the restrictions for teams that can sign players to the 300k max. Who’s to say, for example, that the Cubs wouldn’t go to Luis Robert and offer him the minimum while promising an mega extension.
There’s a significant difference in those players. Ottani would debut in the majors next year, while Roberts is rumored to start in A. Ottani would also probably would get 150M , on top of the posting fee, on the open market.
I get what you are getting at, but at this moment these are completely different types of classes or players, not to disparage Roberts. You are comparing a 19 year old and a vet who has performed and stared in the highest international competition available. Teams would be willing to take risks for a player if they believe him to be a once in a generation type player. If you’re going to stick it to the MLB you better hope he has generational type talent, because that’s going to come with the scrutiny and watchful eye of the MLB. Ottani is an exception in many ways. This is going to be a major exception in which the MLB back themselves into a corner. Since the discussion of this rule there has never been a player in the light of Ottani. So this would be the player most teams would be willing to, if they financially can, exploit the loopholes.
I understand and acknowledge the difference in skill/ceiling/floor of each player. They are both referred to as players that would 100% break the non-penalty cap and by a large margin with no respect to how large of a margin. Robert is only the most recent example of a highly regarded prospect breaking that barrier and the team incurring a penalty. One could substitute Moncada or a more major league ready player like Abreu, albeit both signees were before the current (mostly unaffected in this manner) CBA.
Other teams would immediately call bs on it.
No he’ll only be able to sign a minor league deal at first. Then a team will exploit his loophole and sign him to an extension. That extension will probably include either major money or big money and a shorter control period.
As he’s still young I think Seattle could be a good fit if they trade Cruz. He could replace Cruz at DH and could possibly be the ace if he’s given the chance to pitch and hit.
That was really where I think he’ll end up. I think it’ll be a mix between Texas and Seattle.
I think he will end up on the Cubs
That is doubtful considering the restrictions placed on them.
That’s all great, but can Otani throw the dreaded gyroball?
Lol, this guy.
If rangers can resign darvish, I think the rangers can land otani. He can learn from darvish, coming from Japan to MLB.
Then the Dodgers,Mariners,and Yanks to name a few are in that boat. Going by your logic..just saying.
But he actually knows Darvish. They worked out during the offseason.
He also has ties to Tanaka and Maeda.
Hmm, I wonder if he’s ever heard of a hitter named Ichiro?
For those saying Cubs, the Cubs have a maximum allotment of $300,000 that they can spend on International free agents this offseason. That is less than the league minimum, so Otani would have to settle for a minor league deal if he were to choose the Cubs, which is not going to happen.
He can only sign a minor deal regardless under the new rules. The MLB will never admit this, but one team is going to throw the middle finger its way and there will be an extension.
Where in the new CBA does it dictate he can only sign a minor-league deal?
it’s because of his age he’s considered an amateur signing i think? which doesn’t really make sense given the league he’s currently playing in tbh.
The age restriction has now been changed to 25 meaning he can only sign a MiLB deal. It previously was 23 which is why their controversy.
* There is
Has there been a Japanese player other than ichiro turn into a long term elite asset in the MLB? If there has, the odds are so low on landing one because they rarely work out that I wouldn’t go all in on any player from that league. I’ll never forget the one who was supposed to be the next Roger Clemens the Yankees grabbed back in the 90s.
I mean, plenty have been productive big leaguers, ichiro is basically the only hall of famer.
Darvish, Tanaka, Aoki, matsui, Kuroda, etc have been plenty good in the big leagues.
Most of the pitchers have gotten hurt – Matsuzaka, Nomo, Darvish, Igawa, Hideki Irabu, Maeda came to the Dodgers on that incredibly team-friendly contract because, as one Dodger team official said, he had “the worst medical’s I’ve ever seen.” As far as the position players, most of them came over later in their careers – when they were already pushing 30, and most players are past their prime by 30.
But the pitchers did seem to break at an alarming rate; the starting schedule in Japan is that pitchers only pitch once a week (there are six-man rotations and there are off-days once a week). Plus, the ball is smaller in Japan, which probably makes more of a difference to a pitcher than a position player.
Hideo Nomo averaged 199 IP, 200K’s and a 3.85 ERA for 9 years right at the height of the steroid era. He wasn’t always awesome, but he never made fewer than 28 starts in that stretch. He dropped off quite a bit in his mid 30’s, but then a lot of pitchers do that.
Hiroki Kuroda, despite being 33 when he reached the majors, only had one season in his 7 in MLB in which he made fewer than 31 starts, and never suffered a significant injury. He returned to Japan to be closer to home, not because he wasn’t good enough to keep pitching in MLB.
Don’t stick your nuts out too far now, lol.
Thanks for this. The content continues to improve on this site
Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Royals, A’s, Astros, Braves, Cardinals, Nationals, Padres, Reds, and White sox are all under restrictions so they will all be out. then you have teams that are all ready expected to sign some of the top international FA come july 2 like the Rays, Yankees, Twins and Red sox so unless these teams trade for more cap i dont see them signing him unless he will willing to take under a 1 million for a bonus. so that cuts it down to 14 teams right there
I would like to see Otani make it as a pitcher and DH, I always thought there would be someone to do it. Many great high school pitchers are also great hitters. Babe Ruth obviously would have been the perfect player to do it.
So the real question is, if you took the words “guy” and “stuff” out of the vocabulary of these scouts, would they be able to form a sentence?
Welcome to the Chicago Cubs!
Or phillies or jays
Next year’s Mariners rotation: Felix-Paxton-Ohtani-Iwakuma-Miranda.
KUma’s not ready until June , Leake is better than he and Miranda –
He’s about the only pitcher I’d love for the brewers to go after. They will have a crap load of money available to spend for a potential extension. Unfortunately there aren’t too many positions that he could play in order to utilize his hitting abilities. I can only dream of that…as long as they don’t sign Arrieta.