The hottest name on this year’s trade market, as expected, has been Orioles shortstop Manny Machado. Seven teams have reportedly made official offers for the young superstar, and at this point it appears as though the Brewers and Dodgers are the frontrunners for his services, with the Indians also in the mix. And though it’s not immediately clear what any of those teams offered, I expect that if Machado is traded by himself, the return will be less than inspiring.
At last season’s trade deadline, the Tigers traded one of the top power hitters in the game in J.D. Martinez. The prospects given up by the Diamondbacks in exchange were Dawel Lugo, Sergio Alcantara, and Jose King. If none of those players sound familiar to you, it’s probably because they weren’t interesting enough at the time for you to remember their names. After all, none of them ranked among the Tigers’ top ten prospects upon entering their weak farm system (Lugo ranks highest among those players at present, checking in at #12), and certainly none of the three were brought up in public trade speculation surrounding Martinez.
There’s more a big disclaimer here. First, many teams don’t pay attention to public top prospect lists; they have access to far more player data, so they’re almost certainly assessing player value more accurately than publications like MLB Pipeline or Baseball America. For all we know, Lugo could rank among Detroit’s top 150 favorite minor-leaguers in the game. Still, on the surface, none of the three prospects had ever done anything particularly remarkable, and the fact that the Diamondbacks landed one of the best power hitters in MLB without giving up any marquee players came as a surprise to many.
One possible contributor to this is the talent gap between MLB teams. Prior to the deadline last season, an extraordinary number of teams were already out of the playoff race. This season’s even more extreme in that regard; the Indians already own a seemingly insurmountable lead in the AL Central, and it’s become clear that no AL East team outside of the Yankees and Red Sox has any chance of making the playoffs at all. Even in the AL West, only the Astros, Mariners and Athletics can feasibly be considered contenders at all at this point, with the Angels perhaps having an outside shot if they can get healthy. Los Angeles aside, though, there would appear to be just six AL teams competing for five playoff spots down the stretch, and even the Athletics’ chances are suspect.
Even in the National League, many teams are starting to pull ahead of the pack, setting up a landscape with less mystery surrounding playoff probables than in seasons past. And if these teams have less competition, they also face less of an urgency to acquire impact pieces prior to the trade deadline. The Indians, specifically, are in a division with four teams likely to be sellers (the Royals, in fact, already started, receiving a weak return for Kelvin Herrera). Why should they give up any significant future value for a player like Machado, who they’ll only benefit from during the playoffs? Why should the Red Sox trade from their thin farm system when at the very least they’ll probably have home field advantage in the Wild Card game either way?
If those teams (who both have holes in the infield to some extent) probably don’t feel the urgency necessary to spend big (in terms of prospects) on a player like Machado, it could take yet another two bidders out of an already-weak bidding war. Thus, the laws of supply and demand are likely to drive down the value of any player who would become a free agent at the end of the season.
My overall point is that, in an MLB climate where divisions are so lopsided, any rental player this season is unlikely to command the type of return he might have in another era. That doesn’t mean there won’t be plenty of activity involving these players, but logic tells me that an anxious bidding war for these rentals, the kind of competition that would yield an impressive return value, is unlikely to develop. It will surely be interesting to track players these players and see just how this storyline progresses.
It was reported by Jim Bowden that the Orioles rejected an offer that had (or was the total offer, not sure) Alex Verdugo, and Yadier Alvarez. If that’s the case, what the hell do they expect to get? That’s ridiculous.
I’d take that in a heartbeat whether it’s for Machado or Britton. OR EVEN BOTH.
Baltimore media is saying the Dodgers have not made any offer close to that. The only actual offer that was mentioned was Gavin Lux and Dustin May. As an O’s fan, that seems light to me.
Oh, didn’t see that. Then if it was Lux and May, that’s a little light.
Which May?
Never mind – Dustin. Seems light to me also. Just a first offer that they hope will be taken. I would keep Machado at that point also.
It’s Jim Bowden. I would put little stock in what he has to say.
You’re right. Reporters/ Talk Show Host will say anything that will stir up people. Personally I’d say Manny is worth a Chapman type return. He could put a team over the top.
The whole point of this article was to explain why a Chapman type return is NOT realistic…
Bingo. He’s the last person I’d trust with trade rumors. I’m good with Rosenthal/Morosi/Heyman.
This is not been reported anywhere, the O’s would have jumped on that.
He said last night on Baseball Tonight that like Machado and others will be Teaded.
Roch Kubatko, O’s writer extraordinaire, has reported more than once that the Dodgers have never offered Verdugo as part of a Manny deal. I trust him much more than I do guys like Bowden.
How much is a World Series win worth? In 2016 the player’s playoff pool for the WS winning Cubs was $27,586,017.75 and the team received $55,172,035.50
For the 2017 WS winning Astros it was $28,528.502.05 for the players and over $60 million for the team.
That does not include any additional revenues during the playoffs or increased ticket sales, sponsorships, and other revenue the following season which is huge too.
I would only be guessing, but from the things that have been published about it, I would say that a World Series win is conservatively worth $100-$110 million.
That is what bringing on a guy like Verlander or Chapman is worth to a team that just needs that push over the top. So would the cost in prospects to get Machado be worth it if the team acquiring him wins the World Series?
Except, you can’t guarantee the result. Only the expense.
You can increase a likelihood. That ball with the laces takes care of the rest.
what does a football have to do with it?
Even the losers get a part of that pool as long as they make the playoffs.
World Series Champion: 36 percent
World Series Runner-Up: 24 percent
League Championship Series Runners-Up (2): 24 percent (12 percent each)
Division Series Runners-Up (4): 13 percent (3.2 percent each)
Wild Card Game Runners-Up (2): 3 percent (1.5 percent each)
Nobody cares about the runners up. Win the pennant and get to the world series to give your team a chance at a championship
Very true. If cubs would have lost game 7 losing Torres would have been a total loss. But by winning World Series as a Cub fan (no other fan understands ) the heartache and 108 year drought it was a steal . When Cubs need the next Torres they can buy him (machado or find him like in international /college) . People will say Cubs should have kept Torres and waited till next year. Tell that to Indians fans who thought they were going back the next year . They have the longest drought now and I do root for them to win one. Like Epstein said if not now when?
Just like KC when they got Zobrist and Cueto or Houston when they got Verlander. It works.
No other club understands?
Yes, 108 years is a looooooong time.
But how about fans of a team that have NEVER won. Like me, a Rangers fan, who had to witness the Rangers blow a 2 run lead one strike away from a title in game six, twice.
Except the Rangers need 9 Machado’s to have a chance.
Weak NL teams are better off. With no DH, they would only need 8 Machados.
Still have to have competition. It doesn’t matter what player x might be worth to get over the hump. Without any competition for player x, team y shouldn’t need be bidding against themselves. This is baseball and Front Offices are mostly professional. This isn’t The Office and most FOs aren’t staffed with Michael Scotts.
Sure its worth it IF you win. But making the deal does not mean you win. So what if you do not win or even get to the World Series which is more likely.
But teams never make deals like this with the expectation of losing, only with the expectation of winning. When the O’s traded for Andrew Miller, it wasn’t about “will we regret this if we don’t win” but “does this give us the best chance to win”. And it did, but we didn’t in the end. Would I like to have had Eduardo Rodriquez the past three years when our rotation was in shambles? Yes. But without Miller we wouldn’t have won the division in 2014, and certainly would have had a much harder time beating the Tigers.
Hindsight is always 20.20, but teams making these deals more often than not are being hopeful rather than pragmatic. That being said, the O’s are better off with 70 cents on the dollar than with the 31st pick in the draft.
that’s a question ws teams have to make do i risk the future for 1 ws or what i’m giving up might win me multiple. also on the flip side of that coin who is to say prospects you trade for that over the top rental are going to even make or be that tracending player. i’m in the boat if you have a realistic shot at a ws you gotta take it
What type of prospect haul did Darvish get Texas Rangers? He was expiring contract. Pitcher > SS too (at least in theory)
If Machado gets dealt (Big IF) I predict a similar return to what Yu Darvish got the Rangers, dealt to LA Dodgers.
They got one top-100 prospect prospect FWIW.
An everyday player is always worth more than a pitcher.
Thats not true at all…
Well, “in theory” it depends on what team you are referring to. If a team (I’m not going to name) has a unreliable SP that blows the game before it starts (not going to say who that certain SP is) then yes, a good starting pitcher is what they would need. But we all know the Dodgers don’t have Sonny Gray in their rotation, so they’ll be fine with Machado.
It depends on what a team needs. I
I disagree. In the playoffs a stud pitcher is worth more
No offense, but Machado is significantly more important than Darvish if for no other reason than he plays every day. Darvish could impact the season only once every five games, and if he had a bad outing he could go a week and a half between positive impacts.
Not buying. A team without a solid 1-2-3 rotation has virtually no chance in the postseason. Even more to the point, what evidence do you have that position players are netting more in July trades than top of the rotation starters?
I don’t think buyers are limited to teams trying to make the playoffs. Teams compete against fellow future playoff opponents.
For Machado yes the buyers will be limited to teams trying to make the playoffs
Buyers are limited when there’s only 2-3 months of control. If they had better ownership, they would have traded Machado last deadline. Then you’d possibly be correct. Though last year’s contenders would’ve had more incentive regardless.
BS. You talk as if you know what offers the Orioles received in the offseason were. You ignore the fact that the team didn’t know the offense was going to bottom out, having been 5th in the league in average and HRs last season with a 2B poised to be a superstar and another superstar in a contract year. But that’s OK, the Orioles are an easy target for uppity, holier-than-thou fans of other teams. Makes you feel good to smash on the O’s while your best of all best Cubbies sit behind the Brewers(!) in the standings, doesn’t it?
I am curious, can you name even one expert that actually thought the Orioles would be in the hunt fr the playoffs this season? I’m curious because all I recall was predictions of doom and gloom for Baltimore in 2018,At BEST fighting to stay a .500 team.
What? The article is strictly talking about rentals?
Nevermind I know what your saying now it’s just worded poorly in my opinion.
Silly article…….
It’s about AL teams being set for the playoffs. So, how about NL teams that might want to acquire him?
Nevertheless, no team is giving up 2, and possibly even 1, of its top prospects for a 3 month rental. Only a handful of prospects materialize. Teams hold onto as many as they can hoping a few succeed. I read endless articles and comments here 3 years ago from writers and Red Sox fans that Blake Swihart was going to be the next Johnny Bench, book it. Now he can’t hide behind an injury as Brian Buxton can…..even though it’s obvious that Buxton cannot hit major league pitching.
There are few things stupider than trying to make the league competitive by creating an incentives to lose.
I’m all for helping small market teams stay competitive through revenue sharing (and higher signing bonus pools, etc.), that does indeed help spread baseball around, beyond the 6-7 major markets, but losing is not the same as market size. Small market teams should be given a share of revenues, but losing, in itself, should be punished, not rewarded with high draft picks.
I remember when my padres swept the nationals and they were rewarded with the #1 overall pick Stephen Strasburg while the padres had to “settle” with Donovan Tate. I think something like a lottery draft should be made, just public so it’s not rigged like the NBA.
“just public so it’s not rigged like the NBA” confusing there indeed, the NBA lottery is televised. What do you mean by public? How is the NBA lottery fixed?
The NBA is fixed.
And the actual lottery isn’t televised, they just announce the order on TV.
The NBA lottery was streamed live on WatchESPN. Tues May 15, 2018
if that’s the case it’s definitively something new, or at least not done like 10 years ago when I watched it.
I believe there’s spectators when the NBA does the lottery selection.
Last time NBA lottery selection process was done live was 1985 aka the great “conspiracy”. Honestly I believe it. And it benefited my team.
When pulling the envelope containing No.1 pick, it was only bent envelope and pick sent consensus No.1 overall pick Patrick Ewing to New York. After all the conspiracy theorists went nuts, that was the last time, SELECTION process was done live
Nowadays, NBA lottery televised results are already predetermined, not done live.
Don’t worry… Justice was served. Ewing never won a tifle with New York lost in 94 99 finals.
Get over it.
-Huge Knicks fan
What are you talking about?
Just Watch the video of the 1985 NBA lottery, totally rigged, dude.
After that debacle, That was the last time lottery was shown live.
Ok,so here’s the biggest problem IMO.
It’s two sides.
One is you have to get ride of them for something,and you hold out for the ‘16 Yankee Haul.
The other side is you don’t want to give up a ‘16 Yankee Haul.
Now they are all gun shy.
Baltimore?(which I still think CY is the best ballpark)- they don’t want to help Boston or NY.
Cleveland isn’t going to make it either.
LA could get into the WS…so you wanna give a player to help someone win?
I’d send him to Cleveland. Just me.
I want the chief wahoo logo back or else I won’t watch Indians games sorry.
E X P A N S I O N and 16 teams need to make the playoffs. It cuts tanking and boosts signings and trades. Also ban the DH. Neil Walker should not be employed. Also I think they need to eliminate divisions and make it a 32 team free for all with the top 16 teams making it to the playoffs. Also the season should be shortened to 63 games. Also they need to get rid of mound visit limits, and instead cut the pay of the pitching coach/catcher that calls the visit by 10% every time time they cause one. Also I want the American League to just sink into the Pacific Ocean, which would leave 16 teams. So the regular season will just be skipped and we will go to the playoffs with each series being a best of 15. Also every game should be played at Target Field, and they should just tear down every other professional baseball field because I only watch games at Target Field. Just a few suggestions, nothing too unreasonable.
NO. I hate the 1st round of the NBA. Most boring thing in the world. The 8th seed has no chance to beat the 1st seed. Everybody making the playoffs makes less relevant the regular season and the playoffs as well. Getting to the playoffs should be an achievement, not something that teams with losing records do.
Winning an NBA Series is not the same as winning in MLB series. You could realistically throw teams like the Padres or Twins in the playoffs and they could go on a run, but like you said, that doesn’t happen in the NBA. It’s all about who is hot in baseball
True. I still think my point stands. It belittles the regular season and the playoffs if anyone can make them.
Doubt have ever seen such rambling about nonsense in the 10y this blog has been around.
you win the polished turd award.
—sarcasm—
Sorry it was 2am and I was drunk and in bed.
I disagree with this article. If you’re a fringe contender, why would you give up anything of value? that’s why the Tigers got so little from the DBacks for JD Martinez, why would they feel pressure to give up much when they were at best a wild card contender? on the other hand, if you’re a strong contender battling other few strong contenders, would you let them reinforce for cheap? if you’re they yankees would you allow the red sox to upgrade for free? would you allow the indians to upgrade for free?: the more strong contenders there are, the higher the price could get (IMO).
What is the answer to 99 out of 100 questions ? MONEY. Moving JD saved the Tigers millions of dollars.
The Tigers would have been better if giving J.D the Q.O and taking the compensation pick and the slot money that comes with it.
“The Tigers would have been better ….taking the compensation pick and the slot money that comes with it.”
In theory, but in practice they took Casey Mize with the first pick.
Some teams can’t become better without radical changes in management.
There is nothing wrong with getting a draft pick compensation after applying the QO if a mid season trade offer(s) fails to include top 10 talent by team(s) if you are trading a high end player.
I think everyone on here is forgetting the main culprit behind the diminished value of trading players with expiring contracts: the CBA. Years ago a team could trade for a two month rental player and offer arbitration for a Type A or Type B free agent. The team would receive a first or second round comp for their loss from the team that signed him. So if you gave up high prospects and couldn’t resign the player after the season, it wasn’t much of a loss as you drafted another high end prospect. But now, if a player is traded within the season, teams cannot offer the qualifying offer, which means they receive no compensation for their loss. This lowers the value of a two month rental. Unfortunately this takes the fun out of mid summer trade deals like years past, as teams do not want to risk for a two month rental knowing they might not get anything in return in the end.
The biggest difference with Machado is that he’s not a one dimensional everyday player. He’s not just a bat for a playoff run. He affects the game everyday w defense, instincts, and hitting. That’s everyday.
Not if he insists on playing SS
Two years ago I thought MLB was poised to reclaim it’s spot as the top sport* in America within 20-30 years (mainly due to increased Hispanic population and the CTE related decline of the NFL). Two years later, it’s obvious baseball is in real trouble and the main culprit isn’t demographics or TTO, it’s competitive balance.
I knew when the latest CBA was signed that MLB would devolve into a “Premier League” (stealing Brian Kenny’s term) and a AAAA. It’s happened even quicker than thought.
14 teams are vying for 10 playoff spots this year. That’s 16 teams playing exhibition baseball from Opening Day.
The disintegration of the trade market will only make it worse.
Now, the rich, super teams have fewer holes because, again, they are super teams with infinite resources. Fewer holes equals less demand equals lower return.
One of the few avenues for small market teams to stay moderately competitive has been making a good trade for good prospects when you must unload a star player to a super team. Now, you trade a JD Martinez in the middle of a monster year and you get tossed scraps.
*The NBA doesn’t exist to me so I didn’t realize how big it had gotten.
It’s getting worse and worse. Most of the league is turning into a talent feeder for the big guns and a few teams at the right portion of their cycle.
Royals fan: Was weak return for Herrera because of possibility of injury? That would also explain why Dayton jumped into the market early.
who are the twins looking to get in any trade? or what are the twins looking to trade for mostly if i may ask?
It is what they say, if you tell a lie enough times, it becomes true. People believe that the NFL is more balanced and any team can win the championship. Since 2000, only 10 different teams have won the SuperBowl. Yet 12 different teams have won the World Series. The Royals have a more legitimate chance, on rebuilding the team and winning another World Series, than the Chiefs have at winning a SuperBowl. The Patriots have been to 8 Superbowls since 2000, that is more appearances than the Yankees and Sox have combined in that same time. Just some food for thought for all of you this morning.
There is a difference between equal opportunity and equal outcomes.
In the NFL, if you get a franchise quarterback you win (a lot) so a few teams will hog all of the Lombardi’s.
But, ANY team can get (and keep) one of those quarterbacks. If the NFL worked the way MLB does there would be no Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay or Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh or Drew Brees in New Orleans. They would have signed or been traded to big market teams by now.
The 2015 Royals are the only true small market MLB to win in the big money era. You have 10-12 “poor” teams competing every year for the past 30 years and only one has ever won. That’s 1 in 300 to 1 in 360 odds (give or take). That’s hardly a level playing field.
Meanwhile, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Tampa Bay, etc. have all won Super Bowls in the past 20.
BTW the Indians have been to the playoffs more times than the Browns have. Same thing between the Tigers vs Lions. The Giants have made the playoffs more than the 49ers.
Bit more of a difference in MLB that NBA and the NFL. Much harder to hit on prospects in the draft and much longer to wait. Most teams see same kids in other 2 sports same way without need for special team scouts and many “poor” teams have cut those types down to a bare minimum.
Think giving out so called “poor” comp picks is a help, then throw in having to pool in sharing of TV rights (all).
My idea for stopping the tanking? Penalties for the new craze of tanking and make them severe, nearly as much as all the cash/picks some get. 3 years in a row under .500 with all the giveaways if things stand as they are? Lose half free cash given out thru tv rights shared. Another year? Highest free comp pick also.
Might just target inept GM’s but it will stop the tanking.
Interesting choice of lines to lead with, considering that’s exactly how they always sell the idea that there’s something resembling competitive balance in the MLB.
TV revenue will never be balanced in baseball. Because teams in baseball rely on local TV revenue. Where the NFL every team gets the same amount of revenue, from the TV deal. So unless MLB going to all teams being brocasted by only the national television deals, it won’t be able to do that. But you claim that only the big market teams win the World Series is laughably. The Yankees haven’t been to the World Series since 2009. The Mets haven’t been since 2000. The largest market in the World. Chicago the second largest market, have only had two appearance in the World Series. Since 2000. Los Angeles only has two appearance’s this century in the World Series. Kansas City has the same amount of appearances in that same time. And the the same amount of championships. Tampa Bay Reys have been to a World Series. The Rockies have been to the World Series. The Sox print their own money, only 3 World Series appearances since 2000. Where the Pats have been to 8. The Giants have been to three.
“But you claim that only the big market teams win the World Series is laughably”
If you’re going to rip into me with a poli-sci freshman “but you claim”, the least you could do is start with something I actually claimed.
I don’t know what’s more laughably, that, or using superficial playoff result counting as a measure of parity.
The Mets were in the World Series in 2015.
People seem to be really passionate about the CBA provisions and trade proposals that they’ve never right on… focus on game by game strategy like I have my entire life for each sport. Much easier to bet on instead of being thrown into the millions of masses of plebs who think they know how to run a team
Interesting, thought provoking post. Thanks Kyle. I wonder if this logic could lead to teams trading their star free-agents-to-be earlier when the return could be better?
who are the twins interested in trading for?
who would the twins target or trade away to other teams?