We checked in last night at some position players who have done a lot in 2018 to boost their earning capacity in their first trip through arbitration. Now, we’ll turn to the hurlers. Remember, as MLBTR arb guru Matt Swartz has divined, the touchstones for pitchers are innings, ERA, and accumulation of outcome-based stats — i.e., wins for starters. Swartz also frequently cites strikeouts as a factor in analyzing comparables.
Changes in the game may start to shift the arb earning metrics. But there’s still reason to believe the above-cited factors will continue to drive the process for the time being. Here are ten starting pitchers whose big seasons set the stage for strong 2019 salaries:
- Aaron Nola, Phillies: It has been a dominant season for Nola, who has racked up 16 wins through 193 2/3 innings of 2.42 ERA pitching to this point. That adds to an already-impressive compilation of stats at this early stage of his career. It doesn’t seem he’ll capture the Cy Young vote, despite numbers sufficient to support a case, but even a top-three finish would bolster his arb resume.
- Luis Severino, Yankees (likely Super Two): He hasn’t held up the pace all season long, but Severino is still carrying very appealing overall numbers — including those of the type that play well in arbitration. In 179 1/3 innings, he has a 3.46 ERA with 17 wins and 207 strikeouts. He has cracked 200 K’s now in consecutive seasons.
- Sean Manaea, Athletics (likely Super Two): A shoulder injury diminishes Manaea’s future outlook and could keep him on the shelf for all of 2019. But other than robbing him of his final five starts, it doesn’t detract from a strong set of arb stats. He has reached 160 2/3 innings with a 3.59 ERA and compiled a dozen wins. Though he doesn’t get many strikeouts, Manaea also provided his agents with an ace in the hole when he spun a no-hitter earlier this season.
- Matthew Boyd, Tigers (possible Super Two): If he can notch another win, Boyd will reach a ten-spot. But that’s not the only point in his favor from a surprisingly solid statistical line. Boyd is likely to finish with over 175 frames and could yet draw his ERA to below the 4.00 line; regardless of exactly how things turn out, he’ll be sturdy in both departments. And he has already topped 150 strikeouts. All told, he’s done a ton to advance his case after entering the season with an unappealing stat line. Of course, he’ll have to cross his fingers that 2.136 days of service is enough to qualify as a Super Two.
- Jon Gray, Rockies: The candidates from this point forward all have some major warts. In this case, it’s an ugly 5.07 ERA that doesn’t match Gray’s strong peripherals. He’ll be dinged for that, no doubt, but also rewarded for tallying double-digit wins and over 160 innings with more still there for the taking.
- Vince Velasquez, Phillies: He’s a big strikeout threat, but Velasquez has missed a few starts and his results don’t match his peripherals. Still, 139 innings of 4.53 ERA ball, with eight wins and 156 Ks, ought to play fairly well — particularly if he can pad that line over the final few outings of the season.
- Tyler Anderson, Rockies: Pitching at altitude doesn’t help, to be sure, but Anderson’s 4.82 ERA isn’t going to be viewed with much favor. He also has only six wins. Still, he’s up to 162 1/3 innings and will be compensated for that fact alone.
- Jose Urena, Marlins: Almost an exact match for Anderson, except with the benefit of a pitcher-friendly park, Urena hasn’t been wildly impressive but is in line to get paid. He’s thrown precisely as many frames as Anderson and worked to a 4.21 ERA with a paltry seven wins.
- Steven Matz, Mets: It hasn’t always been pretty, and the home runs are a problem, but Matz is currently through 140 frames with a 4.18 ERA. Though he only has five wins, the southpaw could yet end the season with 150 punchouts.
- Junior Guerra (likely Super Two): Guerra gets the final spot over a few similarly situated hurlers because he has done so much to help himself this year. After a rough 2017 season, the late-blooming hurler’s future was in doubt. But he has taken the ball for 26 starts and two relief appearances, throwing 137 2/3 total innings of 4.18 ERA ball. He’s only sitting on six wins and 132 strikeouts, but the bottom-line results are solid.
- Honorable Mention: The Tigers’ Michael Fulmer is another likely Super Two, but he is headed in the wrong direction after generally quality work to open his career. In terms of outcomes, Mike Montgomery of the Cubs certainly deserved a nod, but he has only compiled 111 2/3 innings to this point and his 3.87 ERA is accompanied by only 74 strikeouts. It’s the opposite situation for Orioles righty Dylan Bundy, who’ll almost certainly end up with over 160 innings with more than a strikeout per frame but is also surrendering more than five earned runs per nine owing to an out-of-control home run rate.
Velasquez disappointed a little
He was doing really well until a few weeks ago.
Severino has overall solid #’s but last 11 starts has: 6.43 ERA. (4.06 FIP, 3.14 xFIP) Last 15: 5.15 ERA. (3.91 FIP, 3.23 xFIP)
Overall, solid 3.46 ERA, (2.99 FIP, 3.06 xFIP) but have to wonder how much 2nd half struggles, hurt as 1st time Arb
Hopefully, arbitration panel looks at his FIP, and xFIP Lol
I highly doubt an arbitration panel is going to look at small sample sizes and 1st/2nd half splits anyways.
They affect his overall performance, which in turn, should hurt his bottom line, if they look at the season.
Don’t both sides bring in experts that parse the minutia? Or was that the old days?
It’s a hearing in front of a three-lawyer arbitration panel with a rep for the player and a rep for the team repping each case. This is why teams hate the process, because it requires them to say bad things about their own player in front of him, and why teams usually try to settle before it gets to a hearing.
Blake Snell should be a Super Two next year……let the auction begin……
Did you see what they got for Chris Archer? Can you imagine what the asking price for Snell would even be? Would they even have an asking price? LOL.
Exactly. Pirates really got hosed in the Archer deal.
Considering where the Sox are in terms of their youth, what the Yanks have and have coming, and what the Jays have coming, the Rays real window of opportunity is about 2021-2. Their upper level high floor-low ceiling types (Bauers, Adames, Lowe etc.) should be comfortable by then, and their high ceiling guys (Franco, Brujan, Hernandez) should be arriving.
But by that time Snell will be Arb-3, with FA pending. Best to move him now for ultimate return.
Take what Sale brought; add in what the Cubs gave for whats-his-name (brain fart), add in a piece or two…..
Bogey, Sale, Kimbrel are all FA next season. Porcello and Betts are FA’s the season after. They’ll lose complementary pieces like eovaldi, Moreland, JBJ etc. They’re the Red Sox and they can obviously sign some of these guys back but Kimbrel is getting older. Sale has miles on that arm. I’m not sure they’re going to be too keen on paying Betts and Sale a combined 450-500 million because that’s realistically what it’ll take. JDM can opt out after next year too. The Red Sox’s window could be shut soon. No reason to deal Snell who won’t be a FA until 2023.
Very well said. I’ve had this discussion with several friends about Boston’s future. They obviously have a huge check book to help overcome many of their shortcomings, but I think the Rays pass them by 2020. For the 2020 season, they will owe $83mm to Price, Martinez, Pedroia and Castillo and all four of them will be 32+. Sale, Bogaerts, Kimbrel and Porcello will have all hit free agency, while Betts and Bradley enter their last year of arb. Even the Red Sox won’t be able to keep everybody and looking at their farm they don’t have replacements anywhere close to helping. I don’t think they’ll fall of become Detroit yet, but Sox fans better enjoy this season. This might be the last magical one for a little while.
I’m not sure why the Rays would have any desire to trade Snell now or in the near future. They currently have the 7th best record in MLB, they basically have their entire team under control for at least the next 2 seasons, have gotten the most production from position rookies and pitching rookies, and have a consensus top 3 farm system that is loaded with talent up and down all levels. They also are getting ready to start a new $1.5+ billion TV contract and have their sights on a new ball park that will increase their revenue 2-3x from it’s current position. The Rays have one of the brightest futures in all of MLB and there is no reason that Snell couldn’t be kept in a Rays uniform long term.
Jeff, I believe you left off your list the LA Angels LHP Andrew Heaney as a first time arbitration eligible pitcher. I would make a trade for him over 70% of your list. He is making $800k this season which makes him affordable throughout his arbitration years. He has had a very good rebound this season. Nola, Severino and Manaea aren’t getting traded. But if I were a pitching needing GM, I would be calling the Angels to inquire on Heaney. The Angels need to fill some ML holes to quit wasting their Trout years. Heaney could help fill 2-3 holes in one swoop.
He was actually a Super Two player last year, so isn’t first-time eligible this offseason.