At the end of the 2018 season, two superstars will hit the open market in search of record-breaking contracts: Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper and Dodgers infielder Manny Machado. Each comes with his own tremendous upside, while at the same time owning risks and weaknesses in gameplay.
It would be hard to argue against either being anything but a top-tier talent worthy of one of the most expensive contracts in baseball history. Barring sudden extensions, each is likely to sign his next contract at the age of 26, and each has accomplished historic feats to date. Their career fWAR totals are both nearly identical; Machado has accrued 29.7 since debuting in 2012, while Harper has 30.3 over a very similar time frame. Such a high fWAR total at an incredibly young age sets each on a great start towards a Hall of Fame career, but the two young phenoms have gotten there in vastly different ways.
Machado’s value has come from tremendous performances both offensively and defensively. While the infielder has received questionable reviews as a shortstop this season, he’d been an incredible defensive asset at third base for his entire career prior to that. The wunderkind topped out at a tremendous 35 defensive runs saved during his first full MLB season back in 2013, and has accrued 84 DRS there across nearly 6,500 innings to date.
Meanwhile, the former Oriole has put up an above-average offensive season by measure of wRC+ in every full season of his career to date. And in spite of an aberration that was the 2017 season, Machado’s offensive performances on the whole have been tremendous. And even amidst that unfortunate (and temporary) dip in stock, he’s slugged at least 33 homers in each of the past four seasons en route to hitting free agency in six weeks. He’s dynamic as well, having swiped 14 bags this season and boasting experience at two different infield positions.
Harper, on the other hand, is a bit more of a pure offensive talent. And while Fangraphs has saddled him with a below-average defensive rating in every season since his rookie year, he’s more than made up for that with his bat. After entering the majors as a teenager, Harper has put up a .279/.387/.513 career batting line with 184 long balls across 3,900 trips to the plate. That’s obviously not a common performance for a player who’s still just a quarter century in age.
The biggest knock on the one-time prodigy has been his lack of consistency. While Harper’s hot streaks are blistering and some of the most dangerous in baseball, his slumps have been prolonged and miserable. For further evidence of this issue, one need look no further than Harper’s MVP season in 2015: while he accrued an otherworldly 9.3 fWAR during that season, he regressed to a 3-win campaign in 2016 and hasn’t come close to that level since. And yet, one can hardly argue that the incredible potential doesn’t still remain in his bat, particularly considering he’s not yet reached the prime age of his baseball career.
There are a variety of factors that could still change prior to these players hitting the open market. But as it stands, it doesn’t seem a stretch to think that most of the market’s driving factors are already in place at this time. Keeping with that thought, which player do you think will earn a bigger free agent payday this offseason? (Poll link for app users)
[polldaddy poll=10109078]
Likely Machado. Harper may have had a good chance but after that ugly 1st half where he showed off his inconsistency again I don’t think so. A 3B with elite defense and a solid bat is more valuable then an inconsistent OF with a better bat but worse defense at his position.
Machado deserves more, as he has been far more consistent, but Harper probably will get more as the media has been pushing him as a superstar since he arrived even though he has only has 2 superstar level seasons and for some reason people buy this false narrative.
I doubt teams pay players based on what the media says. They have guys to do there own analyzing and research and don’t pay out off of a sportswriters opinion!
they get fooled like all of us
Bryce Harper.
Yes, Manny Machado’s batting .297 to Harper’s .249 BA, but Harper leads the NL in walks with 118, beats Manny:
97 Runs >> Machado’s 77 R.
.391 OBP >> Machado’s .369.
118 walks >> Machado’s 67. (Nearly double)
97 RBI>> Machado’s 95.
Manny wins in strikeouts with 98K, striking out 59 times less than Harper. Harper all day everyday!
Manny wins barely in:SB (14>12) HR (35>34)
and: SLG (.540>.505) &OPS (.908>.896)
I think these two will be fascinating case-studies to watch. I can’t wait to watch what they get.
Which one do you want the Yankees to pursue?
Yankees should ignore both of them. At 3rd base, Miguel Andújar can finish the year with a .300 BA, 25+ home runs, and 90+ RBIs. They have plenty of outfielders. You going to replace Didi at short???
The Yankees should be going after pitching pitching pitching.
Andujar is a -23DRS fielder. He needs to be moved off of 3B immidately.
Let me get this straight – you want to add a $300 million player to swap out an up-and-coming young, affordable and still-learning ballplayer because he plays better defense, even though he has no desire to go play 3rd base again anyway?
Yet your #3 pitcher is a 100 pounds overweight and pushing 39 years old…
Are we really going to bring up SB’s as some stat that should have any bearing here with these two guys. manny steals a whopping 14 and he’s “dynamic”? Really? And how many bags, on average, over 10 years is he going to swipe?
it helps score runs and throws pitches off. plus good d and good offense makes him dynamic.
Machado can play shortstop. End of debate.
DirtbagBlues: no he really can’t play SS—at least not very well. Have you watched him much there?
He’s been playing pretty good SS in LA
Most of Machado’s season was spent with the Orioles which will effect his ability to score runs and knock in RBI. Also, Harper had an all-star calibre bat in Rendon protecting him. Machado didn’t have that. And THEN there’s the fact that Machado is simply a better contact hitter. If Machado insists on playing SS then the gap between the two decreases but there’s no arguing it. Machado is the better player this year. Looking at the big picture I still prefer Machado by some.
Are RBIS and runs scored relevant at all? Maybe a good base runner can eek out a few more runs scored but those two stats have a whole hell of a lot to do with the rest of our lineup. Their WOBA is identical so there’s not much difference there. At third or SS manny is much more valuable defensively than Harper in a corner. Manny plays a better short than Bryce does in Center. Obviously if you’re sticking manny at 3rd that defense is top 3 in all of baseball. Behind Chapman and possibly Arenado.
cant throw. wont run. gets super cold and his number are inflated because of 2 great seasons
Should be Machado. Harper is overrated, and as unpopular as it is, I really believe he’s part of the nats problems. Is he a good player? Yes. But does it appear that he could very well be part of their team chemistry problems? Also yes. I honestly hope the nats or philly sign him to an oversized contract and let him continue to erode team chemistry 🙂
I agree with you on the chemistry. That’s partly why I don’t want my Cubs to pursue him.
Harper is a year younger which could be a $ differentiator in contract length and perceived longevity. That extra year could net him another $30-$40m more than Machado. Other factors include position need and market competition. Would love to hear what others think, but I don’t think either comes close to the $400m contract term people toss about…
He is not a year younger. The article even says they’d both be signing a contract at age 26.
He’s not a year younger, he’s fewer than 100 days younger.
100 days=100 million dollar difference, right? But in all seriousness if they were a year apart the gap in contract size would not be 30-40 million for that reason.
Harper is the brand name like Nike so he will be paid however the right team will land Machado at the right overrated price.
My vote is Machado: he plays the more valuable position(s) and has been more consistent. I do feel that Harper’s marketability and ceiling make him the more valuable player, though.
Tend to agree. But you’re only so marketable if you hit below .250.
Machado will get paid more, Harper is overrated, Trout is underpaid and the race baiting on this site is hilariously outdated.
If Machado is open to playing 3B, Machado. If he insists on being a SS, Harper.
Manny looks awful at short.
Two of the most overhyped players in MLB.
Harper has had just TWO great seasons, and one of the two was when he missed 51 games.
Machado is having his best year (questionable why it’s in a contract year) and still has never hit .300 or had an OPS better than .914
Neither holds a candle to TRUE superstars like Mike Trout.
“Neither holds a candle to the non debatable best player in the game, one of the best to ever play the game, and a future first ballot hall of Famer.”
Well… yeah?
My point was neither Harper nor Machado are the superstars that they have been made out to be. Plenty of others besides Trout who are far better than both. Betts and Altuve immediately come to mind, and I’m not even throwing in JD Martinez simply because of his age and time at DH.
Dude please, JD is not even close to the all round players Machado and Harper are. I agree with you on Betts, but not Altuve. Arenado is better than those two though…
Agree man….if Martinez had to worry about picking up his glove and playing the field, …well we’ll never know because he doesn’t play on the defensive side of the ball.
Guy has an oven-mitt for a glove, and is below average on the bases…
Not sure what you’re disagreeing about as I specifically said I wasn’t including JD because he’s a part-time DH. Can’t agree with you on Arenado though, his home/road splits are massive.
Machado’s Home/road splits are huge too. Arenado won’t get a fair shake in the argument until he’s out of Colorado. We’ll see at that point. It’s very close, either way.
In the games I’ve seen, Manny Machado’s behavior is degrading. I see him confronting umpires on close calls that don’t go his way. Umpires are taking it too.
lol. so what all players do
Machado should, but Harper will.
Machado is the better overall player, and a one year age difference should not be a hindrance, they’re both still fairly young. Harper is one of the mainstream, if not the most mainstream ball player in the MLB right now. Baseball people would laud the signing of Machado more, the casual fan would be more impressed by Harper. That gives a big market team more reason to sign Harper, jersey sales and tv numbers are important as well (though I hate that they are).
Also, the game has become a feast or famine one at the plate, so 200 strikeouts, but 40 homeruns play better in today’s game.
There is not a 1-year age difference. There is literally fewer than 100 days separating their birthdays.
Can’t predict what other people will do, but Machado is more valuable than Harper and should be the one to get the larger contract.
Define value. Machado is probably more valuable on the field, but Harper will make the owner more money.
Fair point. I was referring only to on-field value. I can definitely see Harper selling more jerseys/tickets than Machado.
I’m waiting for Kaylie to check in before I vote.
Actually, Manny Machado looks like he’s become more of a diva than even Bryce Harper is.
I wouldn’t have either on my team. I predict that whomever gets either one, it would be like when Alex Rodriguez played for the Texas Rangers. The 2001 Rangers were ready for the next level. However, it was no longer team Rangers. Winning was not the focus. Team A-Rod was. There was a great deal of fallout for that team..
lol wtf
I image the guy who will do anything asked of him to win will make more then the guy who is only about himself and “will only play shortstop”.
“quarter century in age“
Don’t like Kyle’s writing all the time but this one was pretty funny.
Harper is way overrated and he’s going to have to take a lot less!
Machado is twice the hitter and defender!!
Twice the hitter? I’d love to see those stats you produce that show that.
Yankees need to stay far away from another pre-Madonna! They already have a 30 mill a year bun in Stanton!
Pre-Madonna? Would that be Stevie Nicks, Pat Benatar, or someone else? SMH
How about T-Rex?
https://youtu.be/dbsYFoe2l3M
Pre-Madonna? Haha, the term is “prima donna”. It has nothing to do with the 80s singer.
Whoever it is , is just until it’s Mookie’s time…….
He’s gonna break the bank!
Machado is the best all around player in comparison to Harper. Either would be an answer to the Cardinals shortage of an impact all-star quality bat that the so desperately need. However, even though the Cards have the money and big money coming off of the books for 2019, the Cards still have John Mozeliak as their president of baseball operations. His belief is to bring up rookies and invest in high contracts for “Low Hanging Fruit” players. Most of those type players haven’t panned out. Several have huge contracts of which the Cardinals are still paying off, while they are playing for another team or are so bad of players now that they keep those washed out players on the DL. Without Mozeliak in charge, I truly believe the Cardinals could land one of these two players to put them in as bonified World Series caliber contenders for 2019.
People also have to keep in mind that Mozeliak is also dealing with trying to convince a super-star player to commit to a smaller market than New York, LA, Boston…yes the Cardinals have a large international fan base, but they also get much less national coverage, endorsement opportunities, and fame than larger-market teams. Even if Mozeliak goes all-in on Machado (which I think he absolutely should) or Harper and offers them the biggest contract, I personally think that that may be a huge barrier for the personalities of both players.
They have shown they want to be superstars and they will get more coverage and fame being somewhere on one of the coasts.
I totally agree, I love my Cardinals but Saint Louis doesn’t have the best reputation as a city right now and the market here just isn’t ideal for someone who wants to expand their “portfolio”. It’s not to say they can’t get anyone, everyone has their price, it’ll probably just be a factor in how much money they’d have to commit to a player or players of this caliber. You could argue that if they do pony up for one of these guys then it’ll get their brand out there in the national media but I don’t know. So far this year it’s only been a new manager and a magic salsa lol.
I know some fellow cardinals fans may trash me for this but it isn’t 2006 anymore, we don’t have the allure this team once had. I feel like Machado would be an answer to a lot of issues though.
I agree. Not trying to knock St. Louis, but let’s be honest, it isn’t Chicago, NYC, or Los Angeles. Those cities just have an automatic edge, simply due to being World-class/global cities. The marketability and popularity of those markets are very attractive to players.
Even Chicago doesn’t come close to NY or California. They’ve got the recent curse-breaking World Series and the weak seasons from both the Dodgers and Giants to boost their coverage, but once that wears off and the Dodgers come back strong next year it’s going to go back to coast-dominated baseball by ESPN and MLB
They need to get back to what they are good at, and that’s convincing free agents how awesome it is to play baseball in St. Louis by showing it with their home-grown players. Matheny ruined that for everyone because so many people hated playing for him, but Schildt looks like he is going to be able to get back to that style of managing. All the feedback from the players so far, rookies and veterans alike, have been glowing
Chicago is arguably the greatest sports town in America, and is also one of the top media (exposure) marketability markets in the nation. For a player looking to expand his brand, it’s always in the discussion as one of the cities to go to. Even more so than Los Angeles, which is one west coast time. As a result of that, many players/games get lost and buried. See: Mike Trout.
Both are amazing talents.. Machados career will depend on his durability. He has always put up great numbers. Bryce if he goes to a AL team can play of and Dh for many many years. Plus if in a “bandbox” stadium.. ny Balt Toronto or Houston. Can hit 40 hr every year. My gut is machado goes to philly and Harper goes to Yanks. There is not enough pitching to spend on this year. Yanks will sign Happ and Harper
Can I just have both in Atlanta please LOL!! Acuna, Harper, Machado, and Freeman in any order with Albies, Inciarte, and Camargo around them would make a pretty solid lineup LOL….HEY A GUY CAN DREAM RIGHT!! Even for a minute!
I know neither will go to Atlanta so don’t get your feathers in a bunch LOL
That would be awesome for Atlanta. They have the money if they are serious about contending for you guys why not?
Please no. Signing either of these players would cripple the team in the long-run.
Bryce Harper is one of the worst fielding outfielders in the game. Signing him to a massive deal is about the same as signing Matt Kemp to a huge deal years ago. They’re good hitters, but they have to be great hitters in order to post even 1-2 WAR. I mean, when you have -3 defensive WAR, you need to be an incredible hitter (5+ offensive WAR) to balance it out and become even a decent regular.
And that’s just projecting that Harper will be the same exact fielder over the next 8-10 seasons. Most likely, he’ll continue to trend downward as this has been a long-term career trend.
Harper could be one of the worst signings in MLB history. Machado is a good player and a solid defender. There is also potential for him to be shifted somewhere else in the field, in the future. He will age far better. He may not have the true upside of Bryce Harper, but Harper is never going to be a good fielder again. He would need to hit .350-.400 in order to put up another one of those 8-10 WAR seasons. Ain’t happening.
Signing Harper is about the same as giving Jay Bruce a $300 million deal.
Get Harper outta center and he’ll be fine
Not true. Majority of his negative defensive value has been generated in right field. -14 drs in 785 innings there. His range is considerably worse than a league average right fielder.
Since he’s still a really good hitter, his value is “positive enough” that you could maybe squint really hard and sell him to an NL team, but for many teams, he’d really only make sense as a DH. And not, like, long-term. Like right now.
Actually, players like Harper tend to age better – players who don’t rely on raw athleticism and play on the corners. Also, plate discipline is a huge factor in players aging well, and Harper draws tons more walks than Machado. Also, obviously, shortstops tend to have to move from the position relatively young unless they’re someone like Jeter. Harper’s not having a great year this year and a lot of his numbers are still better than Machado’s. The defnse is puzzling; I underestand some of it is the centerfield experiment, but he could move to left or DH occasionally or maybe even end up at first eventually.
Eight to ten-year contracts carry a high likelihood of an abrupt decline in productivity in the last years (e.g. Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera), so if I was a GM, I would let the other guy over-spend and sign other guys for half the term length and one third of the money.
Yep. Especially risky when that player is already in a pretty severe decline.
Pujols was given 10 years at age 32 — through age 42, and there are rumors he is older than he is. All due respect to the future first-ballot HOFer, Pujols and Harper / Machado are completely different cases, when both Harper and Machado are 5+ years younger than Pujols was, when he got his ten-year $250M deal.
Pujols was a considerably better player at 32 than Harper is at 25. Harper is already showing a steep decline in his fielding/range, a decline that in the past was associated with 30+ year old players. Not all players fit the traditional bell curve model of primes. There have been plenty of young stars that got into the league super early and also happened to peak very early in their careers.
Look at Pujols WAR values from 2008-2011 and compare to Harper over the last few years. Which player would you rather sign to a massive contract? Obviously Pujols. It may not have exactly worked out, but he was an incredible model of consistency and elite play over his entire career until that point. Harper has never been consistently good, half of his seasons have been extremely meh. How is he a better bet than Pujols was?
I would normally agree with you….except Pujols and Cabrera where 30+ when they signed these contracts they are playing on now.
Machado and Harper are what 26 and 25 still…so 10 years from now they will be 36 and 35, not 38-40. Yes the likely-hood of them being as productive then as now is low, but they should not have dropped completely off by then! If they have it is at the end of the contract, not the middle! Obviously injuries play a huge role in that as well and you can’t predict injuries!
So do you pay the big money for future hall of famers or stay away from them do to potential injuries?
The thing with baseball is that you do not get paid for what you are currently doing….you get paid for what you have done! Even in arbitration hearings…I did this last year and the year before so I deserve this amount this year! Everything is based on past accomplishments, not what they are going to do 5 years from now.
I would think Machado as a third baseman would be more valuable than Harper as an OF’er.
Machado as a gold glove third baseman sets him apart in my opinion.
AS a 3rd baseman yes….but he wants to play SS! He is not a gold glove caliber SS
Machado will go where the money is. Harper will still get his money, but after playing for the dysfunctional Nats I think he might be inclined to sign with a stable organization that competes for a World Series on a regular basis.
That probably puts the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Yankees at the top of his list. I think there’s a decent shot he signs with the Yankees and learns to play first base.
Sox can’t afford him if they plan to keep Sale, Price, Betts, Benny, Martinez and Bogey
Everone knows yankees gonna put harper at first and he will hit between bigfoot and judge and pad his offensive stats with the short porch in right. Nats havent had anyone good offensively like the yanks do. I hate both harper and yankees but the fit makes too much sense.
Manny at third is going to get a lot more than Manny at shortstop.
Harper, he’s had an off season but can still play all 3 outfield positions. They’re will be more competition because of his versatility,
less teams have needs at 3b and nobody is paying 300 million for a SS that is subpar defensively.
I’d rather give Machado more money than Harper. However, only if Machado played 3B. Machado has had less injuries and seems to have more consistency and has better defensive value than Harper as well.
It will probably be Harper cause he will probably get a massive contract from the cubs and then all you cubs and Theo haters can talk crap about how Theo sucks and gives out horrible contracts.
Race will always be part off the convo when it comes to baseball. The Jackie Robinson story is one of the most often repeated and discussed stories in American history, so yes race will continue to be a part of MLB past, present, and future.
All that said when it comes to Superstars, green is the color that matters! A-Rod, Barry Bonds, Albert P, the list goes on! If you are a star, you will be paid like one. So while I understand the point you attempted to make, it doesn’t hold water. Being WOKE is not assuming everything has something to do with race, it’s just understanding when it does In this case, it doesn’t. Stay WOKE brother.
Actual answer: Harper simply because his best seasons are better than Machado’s best seasons and teams pay for your theoretical superstar seasons more than they pay for consistently good players. Machado should get more, but I don’t think he will..
Don’t think either one will get over $200M, I think those years are over. Teams just aren’t willing to spend that kind of money anymore.
8/260 Harper (Yankees)
10/280 Machado (Dodgers)