Right-hander Miles Mikolas is scheduled for free agency after the 2019 season, though both he and the Cardinals have interest in negotiating a contract extension. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the team has already been in touch with Mikolas’ agent “about what the framework would look like for an extension,” while Mikolas told Goold and other reporters that he would be open to a longer-term stint in St. Louis.
“It’s something that the Cardinals and my agency have to work out – if the numbers work out and everything turns out to be it’s absolutely something that could happen,” Mikolas said.
Talks may not begin in earnest until the Cards open their Spring Training camp, which conveniently takes place in Mikolas’ hometown of Jupiter, Florida. While most players prefer to have contract negotiations wrapped up before Opening Day in order to avoid distractions, Mikolas doesn’t mind if talks stretch into the season. This could give the Cardinals some time to address other extension candidates, though GM Michael Girsch recently indicated that the team may take something of a wait-and-see attitude towards Marcell Ozuna, Michael Wacha, and Paul Goldschmidt — the latter because he has yet to play a game in a Cardinals uniform, and Ozuna and Wacha because of some injury concerns in 2018.
Mikolas signed a two-year, $15.5MM deal with the Cardinals last winter in the wake of a dominant three-year run in Japan with the Yomiuri Giants, following an undistinguished 91 1/3 innings with the Padres and Rangers from 2012-14. Mikolas’ second stint in the big leagues was, needless to say, a vast improvement over his first — the righty posted a 2.83 ERA, 5.03 K/BB rate, and 49.3% grounder rate for St. Louis, while his 200 2/3 innings pitched ranked tenth among all MLB starters.
ERA predictors (3.28 FIP, 3.67 xFIP, 3.93 SIERA) weren’t quite as bullish on Mikolas’ performance, and he didn’t miss many bats, with only a 6.55 K/9 rate. Still, Mikolas exhibited excellent control (a league-low 1.3 BB/9) and limited his hard contact, with a .271 wOBA and an only-slightly higher .283 xWOBA. Mikolas turns 31 in August, though his arm hasn’t faced too much of a workload over 10 pro seasons, after Mikolas spent his first five seasons as a reliever. Indeed, Mikolas has looked quite durable over the last two years, with just 200+ inning performance for the Cardinals and a 188-inning performance for the Yomiuri Giants in 2017.
That first Mikolas contract has already proven to be a bargain for the Cardinals, yet Mikolas has also benefited since he has quickly lined himself up for an even larger payday, whether as a free agent next winter or in an extension. Mikolas’ contract came without any allowance for his lack of Major League service time, so the Cardinals don’t retain any arbitration control over Mikolas even though he’ll only have slightly more than three years of MLB service time by the end of the 2019 season.
The Cards haven’t been shy about locking up key players during John Mozeliak’s reign atop the baseball operations department, and Goold estimates that a Mikolas extension could fall somewhere between Kyle Lohse’s extension in 2008 (four years, $41MM) and the five-year, $80MM free agent pact Mike Leake signed with St. Louis in the 2015-16 offseason. The Cardinals face losing Wacha in free agency and Adam Wainwright is year-to-year at this point, and while the team has a number of intriguing young arms in the fold, there’s certainly value in keeping a durable veteran like Mikolas amidst these more unproven rotation options.
Mikolas’ unique career history makes him something of difficult player to find a comp for, extension-wise. Mikolas might also feel a desire to lock in another big salary while his value is at its highest, rather than test what is becoming an increasingly hard-to-predict free agent market next winter. Even if Mikolas pitches well for the Cardinals this season, it would be interesting to see what teams would offer a 31-year-old who doesn’t generate a ton of strikeouts, especially if the Cards were to issue Mikolas a qualifying offer in the fall.
I think Cards should go the extra miles here……Patriots are from another planet…..
I agree on both
I like mikolas. He’s more of a finesse control pitcher than a power guy. But the guy knows how to get guys out without overpowering them and he doesn’t hurt himself with walks. Solid guy to lock up if the price isn’t too steep.
That said, he does hit upper 90’s, and that surprises a lot of people.
For being a finesse guy, he can bring it.
7/200. Get really stupid
This isn’t the Phillies
10/300?
I still think 4/60 starting in 2020 makes sense, with some of their leftover funds for 2019 being spent on a signing bonus. And he keep his 2019 salary
Something like 4/60
19 – signing bonus of $8, 7.75M salary
20 – 13
21 – 13
22 – 13
23 – 13
Don’t bother…just give him a qualifying offer at the end of the year. He’ll either have another great year and be too expensive or come back to the pack and be cheaper than what you’d lock him up for now.
That’s the entire point. If they extend him now and he is really good again, they won’t have to outbid anyone for him next year and he WON’T be too expensive.
Yeah, extending him now would be at a discount over what he would cost with 2 great years under his belt.
And the risk of whatever that extension will cost.
Your not getting any discount right now…it’s going to be 4/80 or 4/100
That’s funny.
…then the Cardinals won’t extend him. Mikolas will have to take less than that to sign an extension and he’s well aware of that, that’s how extensions work. The player gets less money than if they were a free agent while removing the risk of getting hurt and/or having a down year. This is a pretty standard idea in baseball, everyone involved is aware how this works.
That’s the old way of thinking. Free agents aren’t getting the big deals anymore.
You might get more in an e tension right now with how these last 2 off seasons have gone.
Not a year away from control.
On the open market, he’d possibly get that. But not with one year of success, a year away from free agency, for his age 31-34 seasons.
Three years in Japan counts as 3 years service time. . . This guys a free agent after the next Season… . . Maybe 2 year deal with option. For 22 Total… Third year total 3 for 35 mil. ? ? ?
His deal with the Cards when signed stated he would be a free agent after his 2 year deal.
Japanese time doesn’t count as service time though.
You have a very wrong idea of how MLB service time is accrued.
There is no way he repeats last year. Unless the AAV is team friendly I’d pass
I would turn it down and come sign with the 2019 and 2020 world champions Chicago mf White Sox baby
@ chicagofan1978;
Golly……
You really think those mf’s will need him? After they sign Harper, Machado, Trout, and Sale, I figure they’ll just trade the stiffs they have now for some mf Cy Young guys.
Man. Dude. Baby.
Is that English?
@ chicagofan1978;
You talkin’ ta me?
Actually……
That’s what I was gonna ask you about your comment, but I was feeling sorda jovial.
Yeah I’m talking to you you’re the only one in the room
Player and agent smart? See evolution of free agent market and go for extensions. Loyalty might start to pay? Mikolas could get 4/40 or 5/50 extension and Dallas Keuchel market, or lack of market, shows this would be good deal, for player and team. A lot?
I <3 U!!!
Thank you, we both want Tiger WS parades! And good baseball every where too. I hope new trend for the extension helps us keep Castellanos.
Sentence fragment require question mark?
too early
3 years – 40 mil, 4th year team option
2/20, 3rd year option.
Lol after one season….he knows he cant repeat that season, teams have tape on him now.
If he has an ERA under 4.5 in 2019 i will be genuinely surprised.
Prepare to be surprised. And teams had tape on him all season and that didn’t matter. He walks almost no one, pitches ahead in counts, has a mid-nineties fastball, and two excellent breaking pitches. He needs to develop a better change, especially to lefties if he hopes to improve on his 2018 numbers. 3 years at 40 sounds like a reasonable amount with a 4th year mutual option. Waino will be gone after 2019, and maybe Wacha too, so the extension makes sense. His low hard-hit numbers along with his low walk rate should indicate future success, despite what Steamer somehow thinks.
Steamer doesn’t think. it’s a formula based on criteria and past results. Mikolas fits that criteria. Huge regression season ahead.
And yet, STEAMER sees a 3.93 FIP, and you say 4.50
Steamer also says a 4.00 ERA, but way to splice hairs to gain .07 points towards your empty argument. I think it will be higher because your bullpen is crap.
Steamrr predicts every Cards pitchers to regress with the exception of a significant bounce back from Luke Gregorson.
When that many guys put the ball in play against you luck is a big factor. He needs to miss more bats
No….teams didn’t have tape on him all last season. Did you just pull that out of thin air?
Teams will have tape on him this season, that’s why he is projected for MAJOR regression. 4+ ERA that’s replacement level. That’s how it works. It doesn’t only take 2 months of starts to “have tape” it takes more than half a season, sometimes a full season.
Same thing is going to happen to Fhlarety.
The exact same thing happened to Luke Weaver. Good first full season, then back and forth to AAA second season. because of the tape….
Holy nonsense Batman