It was far from clear last winter when and where Lorenzo Cain would sign. Still, his status as the lone standout center fielder on the market gave confidence that he’d ultimately find a solid deal. That’s ultimately just what happened, as Cain landed just above MLBTR’s prediction (4/$70MM) with a five-year, $80MM pact.
This time around, A.J. Pollock entered the market without a terribly clear outlook. As with Cain, it was possible to imagine quite a few teams signing him, but hard to point to any particularly obvious fits. Likewise, he’s also obviously the best-available, up-the-middle outfield option. Pollock’s checkered health background led MLBTR to predict a contract of four years and $60MM, even though he has the edge on Cain in age.
So, how do things look now that the calendar has flipped to 2019? Though Pollock remains unsigned, the market has changed shape around him.
Several teams that seemed to be suitors may no longer be. Having signed Michael Brantley, the Astros don’t appear to be much of a fit. While the Mets would surely still like to upgrade, they seem to be limited financially from doing so, with the team evidently choosing to rely on bounceback candidates Juan Lagares and Keon Broxton up the middle. The Reds have added two veteran outfielders; if they were ever a likely suitor, they probably aren’t now.
It’s questionable, perhaps, whether the White Sox are still a plausible landing spot. On the one hand, the club just reached agreement with veteran Jon Jay, who has spent most of his career patrolling center. Of course, he’d also be a plausible corner piece. And it’s fair to wonder what the Chicago front office will do if it fails to land either Bryce Harper or Manny Machado. There still seem to be some scenarios where Pollock fits, depending upon how aggressive the organization ends up being.
Of course, the South Siders’ decisionmaking will surely also include reference to their division rivals in Cleveland. While the Indians have focused to this point on clearing salary, and may not be interested in adding any back, it’s also possible that they’ll find a way to squeeze in a significant contract. Pollock remains a strong roster fit, though the club does not need to focus up the middle specifically with Leonys Martin on hand.
The National League East also has a few possible landing spots. While the Phillies are weighing more significant additions, the team could still check back in after the Harper/Machado situations have further evolved. Innumerable possibilities — and lots of dollars — remain available to the Phils. It is less clear that the Braves will have the need and the willingness to chase down Pollock at this point, though they have been connected in the past. The club has other options up the middle, but could like the idea of utilizing Pollock at times in the corners while forming a ball-hawing, still offensively-capable outfield unit. Given the Atlanta organization’s recent history, though, it seems unlikely that it’ll chase the market.
Out west, the fit is yet more speculative. The Giants have long made some sense but aren’t exactly playing an active role in the offseason to this point. It’s possible to imagine a deal, but new president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi is no doubt realistic about the organization’s immediate outlook and will surely prefer not to tie up future payroll. There’s certainly a way to imagine the division-favorite Dodgers as a landing spot, particularly after the club dealt away a pair of right-handed-hitting outfielders, but signing a sizable deal with Pollock doesn’t really match the front office’s recent approach. Plus, Chris Taylor remains available as a right-handed-hitting center fielder.
Beyond those clubs, there are a few others that could be matches — but only if you squint. Pollock would be a luxury for the Rockies or Angels, but with other priorities and limitations those hopeful contenders likely won’t consider him at full price. The D-Backs would surely like to have Pollock back, but only at a discount. The Tigers or Rangers could still surprise, perhaps, as both have ample spending capacity against their historical levels, but there’s no reason at this point to believe that either club will hand out a long-term deal with little in the way of 2019 hopes and dreams. While the Athletics may or may not believe Ramon Laureano is ready to hold down near-everyday duties in center, they’re unlikely to allocate significant resources to the outfield with so many right-handed-hitting outfield options already available and ongoing rotation needs.
Given those considerations, where do you think Pollock is likeliest to land at this point? (Poll link for app users.)
[polldaddy poll=10208750]
The question is who would sign Pollock?
He’s 31 and he’s missed 38% of games in his career because of injuries. That’s ridiculous. And, at 31, he’s on the downside of his career.
He misses more than 1 out of every 3 games his team plays. Why invest money in that?
I agree.I never thought the money they expected Pollock to get was based in any kind of reality. Why would anybody give him 4 years based on his injury history.Maybe a 1 or 2 year contract is what he’ll wind up with
I’d give him two years with an extremely low guarantee that offers tremendous incentives. If he stays healthy, he’ll put up strong offensive numbers. That’s the problem, staying healthy.
His road splits would argue against him putting up strong offensive numbers unless he plays in another hitter friendly park like Colorado, or Cincinnati
Why would a player of his caliber agree to that? Answer….he won’t.
That’s fine, then you’re being turned down and turned away. Move along.
1-2 years with a club option for the third- $10-$12 million AAV
Voice of reason is the voice of reason. Last 3 seasons are a major concern nor worth the money he’s looking for. If someone wants to give him 4 years or more, good luck.
It’s free agency…there isn’t anyone worth the money they are looking for.
I woukd give him a 3/30 deal, due to missing so much time. But give a 5mil bonus each season he gets 525 ab. If 15mil is fair market, his salary should be 10mil for missing 1/3 of games. Prove you’re healthy, get the extra 5 mil
That’s pretty fair, Jordan.
Pollack is not in the same stratosphere as the OF making 15M+. He is a weak hitter (in Arizona – this will not get better). He cannot stay on the field. He does not have elite speed.
He has had 1.5 good seasons and he is 31.
Username checks out.
I cannot believe there aren’t better ball players in the Minor League that can be called up and play better than some of these washed up players.
I am not just talking about Pollock. There are just too many FAs making big money and past the end of their careers.
These FAs just keep bouncing around from team to team.
He only has one season with over 500 at bats. He has had health issues the last few years. It wouldnt surprise me if he signs in february or march because of that. My guess is giants
If A.J. Pollock is determined to max out on a contract that approaches his desired one then it’s almost a certainty he awaits the outcome of the Bryce Harper sweepstakes. That automatically makes one of the losers of that competition his most likely destination. I picked the Phillies to land Pollock but it could just as easily be the White Sox, Dodgers and maybe even the Cubs when all is said and done this winter.
I did not mention the Nationals who are considered a decent bet to re-sign their RF only because they still have 4 very capable OF’s who are younger and they don’t need another oft injured one to join Adam Eaton on their active roster.
The Dodgers whole team can play the outfield. Unless it’s Harper, I doubt the Dodgers sign another outfielder.
Look for Dodgers to trade for an OF’er rather than sign Harper
But, that could also work for them. Pollock at the right price would be appealing and the Dodgers could give him enough regular rest to try to limit his injuries.
Just spitballing here.
Kiké Hernandez and Chris Taylor are better and Dodgers are not going to give up a draft pick and $500K of International bonus pool for Pollock.
This! I’d rather see Kiké play anywhere on the field (because it’s fun!) than give up a draft pick.
What everybody is saying about Pollock’s health issues is valid. Having said that, the one team with a glaring need in CF is the Dbacks. Despite rumors he doesn’t want to be in AZ, I still think it’s smart if the Dbacks offer a 4/$52M contract. If he accepts, the Dbacks fill their need with a known entity. If he gets a better offer, and this offer could push another buyer to bite, the Dbacks get the best possible draft compensation pick. It’s a win/win offer by the Dbacks.
I would say it is smart if the Dbacks offer that (or anyone for that matter) if 25-40% of that is incentive based (PA’s, hits etc). I’d imagine he has received a few of these offers thus far and turned it down waiting for Bryce to sign and the spotlight to be on him.
no 4 year deal – give him $10-12 million AAV for 2 maybe three years
Metfan. You totally missed my point. A 2 yr deal is bad for the Dbacks. It accomplishes nothing. In order for the Dbacks to get a Compensation Round A pick, Pollock must get at least a $50M contract from another team. A 4/$52M contract is a low ball offer from the Dbacks. If they get “stuck” with Pollock for that low ball price, at least they get a desperately needed CF at a low ball rate. If some team outbids them, they have guaranteed that it’s at least a $50M contract, so they get the Round A pick instead of the Round B pick. Win/Win!
I would like for ATL to sign him to a 2 years contract at a larger yearly salary. 2 years and 38 mil would be my preferred max. He gets above market value while the team doesn’t get stuck with a sunken long term contract for a player that may not be on the field.
Whoa, $19-mil per year for Pollock? I was thinking 2 years $25-mil.
They why sign him to any deal if you’re going to give him a heavy AAV deal for even 2 years – if you are doing it in part because you think he’s not going to be healthy enough to risk a longer investment?
The difference with Donaldson is that’s a 1 year pillow deal that allows him to play for a new contract, while Pollock would essentially be settling, not playing for a new deal. I don’t know what kind of offers he’s getting right now, but I find it hard to fathom it would get to a point where ATL would make this kind of offer knowing they would go past where they’re comfortable to do it – and would still need to address bullpen and rotation pieces – while still having questions.
19 is very high. Cain signed for 16 per year, last year. I can’t see him going over 15m/year
Way to high- He will sign in the 2-3 year range for $10-$12 million AAV not including any performance bonuses
I think most teams would take the chance on 2 years / $30 mill or so. It’s not even worth talking about that.
Braves got a lot of votes and that just seems strange. Have people seen how much the Braves aren’t willing to spend? The Braves felt McCutchen wasn’t worth what he got from the Phillies so how does anyone think the Braves are going to go in on Pollock?
He could replace Markaikis and his salary. Would be a great pickup for the Braves if Pollock could stay healthy
It’s getting worst year and year. Players think they are worth more then they are and won’t take realistic offers. I like the qo for small market teams but more and more teams are actually trying to build through the draft.
It is the massive revenues the sport brings in- they think they deserve a large portion of it. mediocre injured talent is not worth the money he is asking for. Machado and Harper on the other hand could be worth it.
The thing MLBTR keeps skipping over is that AJ Pollock isn’t actually good.
Cain didn’t get 80 mil because he was the best CF, he got paid 80 mil because he was a great CF. That all the other free agent CFs were worse is a coincidence that has nothing to do with him.
In the same vein, in 2019 AJ Pollock is an average CF. That all the other CFs are even worse doesn’t change the fact that AJ Pollock is an average CF, and I expect him to get paid like an average CF.
The market is based on production, not on rankings.
Reflect. I’m not saying Pollock is better than Cain, but to write that he isn’t good is an exaggeration. He’s an All-Star. He’s a Gold Glove winner (Cain isn’t). His career BtAvg is over .280. Those are not achievements of an “isn’t actually good” player, they are achievements of an, at least, above average player.
Cain has 4 seasons with a dWAR over 2. Pollock has zero. Gold glove or not, Cain is a better defender.
That said, Pollock is better than average when he is on the field.
War isn’t a real stat, it’s absurd and not a good indicator of anything. Maybe try some real evidence.
Cain outranks Pollock in all the other defensive categories. Not saying WAR isn’t 100% accurate, but it seems the better players have the better WAR’s.
What even is a “real stat”? What makes a stat fake? Maybe try a real argument?
To be honest, the first time I ever heard of Pollock was when I heard he received a qualifying offer.
For a CF to put up a 110 WRC+ is definitely an above average player. Not quite in Cain’s territory, but if he is on field, he is a top of the order hitter on most teams.
4.8 and 4.1 Taylor
4.9 and 1.3 Harper
WAR the last 2 seasons
# of games played on avg. in those 2 seasons?
Planning on adding to that WAR from the disabled list?
For the 2 years quote:
135 game average for Harper
148 game average for Taylor
Obviously its because Taylor can play CF and SS very well. Harper is clearly a better hitter
Pollock Incentive laden Contract with maybe 1st Year guaranteed only ,nothing like Lorenzo Cain
Grandal waited to long now Pollack is waiting to long I would’ve like both on the Mets but not Grandal, 8 would still do a 3/30 or 3/39 that’s it than I would trade Lagares and Broxton to Cleveland since they need OF’s for Bauer, he can be our 3rd sp with Matz and Wheeler 4&5.
Lagares and Broxton for Bauer? Shirley you can’t be serious. Maybe throw in Alonso.
they are not going to give us bauer for Lagares and broxton, maybe Comforto, lagares and …
Lagares and Broxton are not starting ofs on too many teams. There are many teams they wouldn’t even make the major league club.Adding Smith wouldn’t get it done either. Broxton and Lagares are not players any team would want. Lagares adds salary and neither one of them can hit.
Wow, the votes on the poll are spread so thin. He has no clear landing spots. I went Indians because of their dire outfield need, but I think he could remain unsigned into spring training and might have to settle for a 1-year deal to prove he can stay healthy. $12MM-$15MM I’ll guess to Cleveland.
Cleveland was actively clearing salary this off-season. I don’t see them spending that much.
I went Indians as well. But, I think there is 2 dark horses here. Brewers and Reds. Brewers LF is a timeshare with Braun. Braun isn’t very good anymore. Putting Pollack in LF gives them 3 CF guys in there starting OF. Reds r obvious because they don’t have a starting CF on there roster right now. Puig in RF, Pollack in CF and Winker in LF gives them a solid OF. And the selection of the Indians in the poll is obvious. They have no real threats with the lumber in the OF
yeah but where would Braun go? thats a lot of money and idk if anyone wants his remaining contract. If the Brewers are going to spend big again, its gonna be on a pitcher, not another outfielder
Braun isn’t so great, but he came up big in the post season last year.
I think he will end up at the White Sox as the fallback option when they don’t get Harper or Machado
same with me
A few years ago I remember them calling Pollock Mike Trout Lite. He’s just not that player anymore. Pollock is an injury prone player who had his best year, what…3 years ago? If I’m a GM, I’m worried about giving him the contract he wants and then watching him hit .260 and play 80 games a year. Pollock needs a prove-it year where he plays 140+ games and produces more consistently at the plate to get the kind of contract he wants. I don’t see a single team signing him long-term. The Reds were a fit, but after the Kemp/Puig trade, that’s not a liklihood.
I also went with the Indians. A rotation of Pollack, Martin, and Zimmer (when he returns) could help to alleviate injury concerns among all 3.
What’s Cleveland paying Pollock as a platoon player who plays 1/3 of the games.Just wondering
This. With CLE clearing salary over the off-season, why would they sign this guy?
2018 Pollock slashed .235/.288/.451/.739 away from Chase Field with reverse splits against LH’ers and declining defensive production. Career slash line away from Chase .266/.324/.434/.758. 31 year old OF’er who will also cost a draft pick and possibly international bonus pool dollars.
Pollock also plays in the NL west with Petco, Dodgers and AT&T parks.
the stats speak for themselves
This is just a thought, but instead of paying Machado or Harper $35+ mil AAV would a team like the White Sox rather get Pollock (~$15 mil), Moustakas (~$8 mi)l, and Keuchel (~$17 mil) for $40 mil AAV. Obviously none of those guys give you Machado production, but you have multiple holes, this fills them. This year might not be that great, but you will be competitive as Moncada develops (I really think a lot of his struggles came from knowing they weren’t playing meaningful games), and for Eloy when he gets called up.
Moncada 2B
Pollack CF
Moustakas 3B
Abreu 1B
Jimenez LF
Alonso DH
Castillo C
Anderson SS
Palka/Jay RF
That is a pretty good lineup all things considered, and now you have an Ace in Keuchel to go with Rodon, Nova, and hopefully something out of the young Starting Pitchers. The back end of that Bullpen looks really great already. I think this team could be a sleeper team to be good this year if they want to be.
Honestly, I think this exact same way. I’d rather pay three good players what one excellent player is worth, not to mention you don’t have as many years committed overall. It’s not sexy but it works.
Agreed, if a team is one piece away and want to go big on BH or MM then so be it. But a team like the White Sox and many others will be significantly better with a few key pieces over 1 big name. Not only are you going to get better production overall in my opinion, but you also spread your risk among 3-5 players.
Giants.
I don’t know why you hire Zaidi if all you’re going to do is sign an aging/injured player for too much money; that’s a Sabean/Evans type move and exactly the reason they’ve been in last place the last two years.
Giants have a more casual fan base than most teams, hence the constant signing of name players despite knowing they were not one big name away from competing. They need marketable names. They have money. Will be surprised if they don’t sign Pollock but will show their commitment to fielding actual baseball club rather than a memorial to past championships.
They have plenty of marketable names — AJ Pollock won’t change that. I really don’t see the Giants spending much of anything on free agents. They have too many holes to fill for it to make any sense.
I could’ve hit any of the options in the poll and had the same amount of confidence: none.
This could go any number of ways. I chose “dark horse” because it gave me the most options.
Same. I went with not mentioned option for the same reason. Throwing a dart has more probability of hitting a bullseye!
The money is not the issue with Pollock, I am sure many teams would sign him for the annual amount he is requesting, probably 15 to 20 million per year. However, it would have to be a two year deal, with a vesting option based on 1000 plate appearances over two years.
Why would a team give him 2 years 40 million dollars. Even if healthy I don’t think he’s worth 20 million and the odds of him being healthy is slim.
Darkhorse.
Pollock is probably going to have to sign for something like three years for $36mil or be this years Moustakas since he rejected the qualifying offer.
Angels or Rockies. Larry Dolan is a straightedge bloodsucker so Indians fans aren’t getting Pollock.
Finally someone who understands that CLE isn’t going to pay this much!
I picked the Dodgers because I have no idea. And the Dodgers don’t seem to mind signing players with a history of injuries.
The Cubs already have 4 OFs, plus Zorbrist, and KB. I highly doubt they spend money on another one unless there’s a major trade first.
i see him as a met ,3 yrs 45 mil. then lagar traded po start cf confo and nim lf and rf. broxton 4th
If you see him as a Met you don’t have very good vision. What about the Mets in the Wilponzi era would lead you to believe they’ll pay Pollock 3 years 45 million dollars
Ask yourself. What has he done?
Chris Taylor would fit in very nicely in Atlanta.
At the age of 30 he has only played 130 or more games in a season twice and 150 or more once. Buyer beware unles it’s a 1 year deal
He is going to end up in Philly, after they miss out on both Machado and Harper.
I just hope he gets a 50M+ deal, because the DBacks get a better compensation pick if he does. But I’m actually expecting 3/42 as the upper end of what he gets
Half these posts are really nonsense. Pollock is above avg to excellent … bat, defender and speed. He was MLB NL player of the month in April 18 and ditto for first week of May before breaking thumb diving for a line drive. He was leading MVP chatter early in the season for anyone who pays attention. He will land a 4 year 60m without question.
2016-2018
Avg: 79 G, 324 PA, .261/.323/.473 102 OPS+ 12 HR, 39 RBI, 2.0 WAR
“When healthy” he’s great. But he gets hurt every year, and those injuries don’t just mean missed time, they also impact his performance when he does come back
For example, once he came back from his latest injury,, the thumb, Here is his line over his final 73 games:, 294 PA
.236/.297/.407 .704 OPS
He’s also ran a lot less, stealing just 4 bases over that span.. And he no longer generates double digit positive fielding numbers. (Still good, but not what he was) a few years ago)
When fully healthy, he’s a great player. And teams will pay for the off chance they actually get the payoff of a healthy season. But his market is repressed to less than his base talent for a reason. It is what it is.
I personally feel that if AJ would have had a much more durable start to his career there is no doubt in my mind the Met’s would have signed him a month ago. As we’ve seen this offseason the Met’s have been fairly aggressive at least in comparison to previous years. For the fact that BVW and his camp were willing to dish out 64MM for Grandal makes me a firm believer that if Pollock showed more durability in past seasons this would have been a lock. I agree he is a perfect fit for what the Met’s are looking for and what they ultimately need. When healthy yeah sure he’s arguably one of the better center fielders in baseball. The last thing NY wants to do now that they are willing to somewhat freely spend is to sign a player to a contract that will turn into an albatross.