This is the final post in MLBTR’s annual series reviewing the offseason efforts of every team in baseball.
The 2018-19 offseason marked yet another winter of measured free-agent spending and luxury-tax-motivated trades for the Andrew Friedman-led Dodgers.
Major League Signings
- A.J. Pollock, OF: Four years, $55MM
- Joe Kelly, RHP: Three years, $25MM
- Total spend: $80MM
Trades and Waiver Claims
- Traded OF Yasiel Puig, OF Matt Kemp, LHP Alex Wood, C Kyle Farmer to the Reds in exchange for RHP Homer Bailey (released), SS Jeter Downs and RHP Josiah Gray
- Acquired C Russell Martin from the Blue Jays in exchange for SS Ronny Brito and RHP Andrew Sopko
- Acquired RHP Jaime Schultz from the Rays in exchange for RHP Caleb Sampen
- Traded INF/OF Tim Locastro to the Yankees in exchange for RHP Drew Finley
- Traded LHP Manny Banuelos to the White Sox in exchange for 3B Justin Yurchak
- Traded LHP Adam McCreery to the Braves in exchange for cash
Extensions
- Clayton Kershaw: One year, $28MM (bringing his total contract to three years, $93MM)
Notable Minor League Signings
Notable Losses
- Manny Machado, Yasmani Grandal, Brian Dozier, Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, Alex Wood, Kyle Farmer, Chase Utley, Josh Fields, Daniel Hudson, Tom Koehler, Pat Venditte, Erik Goeddel, Zac Rosscup, John Axford
[Dodgers organizational depth chart][Dodgers payroll information]
Needs Addressed
We’ve reached the point where it should be accepted that despite their extraordinarily deep pockets, the Dodgers aren’t going to flex their financial might to their fullest extent. That’s not a knock on the organization, which has been extremely successful under the current ownership group and front office regime, but simply an acknowledgement that the team’s days of MLB-leading payrolls look to be a thing of the past.
At the outset of free agency, we at MLBTR predicted that the Dodgers, who dipped under the luxury tax line in 2018, would be the team to agree to a lengthy contract with Bryce Harper. That was never particularly close to happening, as the Dodgers sought to sign Harper to a record-shattering annual value but only on a four- or five-year deal. Perhaps, if they can find a free agent amenable to such a structure in the future, the Dodgers will exceed the luxury line again, but it was reported this offseason that the organization has drawn up plans to avoid doing so for the next several seasons. The trade of Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, Alex Wood and Kyle Farmer to the Reds in exchange for Homer Bailey — whom they immediately released — and a pair of prospects meshed with that directive.
The Dodgers’ first order of business this winter came in the form of finding a middle ground with Clayton Kershaw, who could have opted out of the remaining two years and $65MM on his contract. An extension was long viewed as a strong possibility, and in the end, the Dodgers locked up Kershaw on a deal even friendlier than many expected. Kershaw tacked an extra year and $28MM onto his preexisting deal in exchange for forgoing his opt-out provision, allowing the club to maintain one of the generation’s most dominant pitchers at an affordable rate. Injuries have begun to take their toll on Kershaw, and he’ll probably never sustain the level of dominance he once did, but there’s no denying his ongoing excellence when he’s been healthy enough to take the mound. A $31MM annual rate is nearly as steep as it gets for a pitcher in baseball, but Kershaw notched a 2.73 ERA in 161 1/3 innings and was worth 3.3 WAR (per both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference) in last year’s “down” season.
With Kershaw taken care of, the Dodgers began eyeing upgrades elsewhere on the roster. Rather than earnestly pursue the market’s top names, the Dodgers were aggressive in the second tier of free agency. A.J. Pollock was arguably the best non-Harper outfielder on the market and was compensated as such ($55MM in guaranteed money), while the flamethrowing Joe Kelly was regarded as one of the top non-Craig Kimbrel relievers. (His addition hasn’t paid early dividends, but Kelly’s .410 BABIP will regress over time, and metrics like xFIP (3.13) and SIERA (3.27) point to brighter days ahead.) Both were brought in on contracts with manageable annual salaries for a team with pockets this deep.
Having issued Yasmani Grandal a qualifying offer he unsurprisingly rejected, the Dodgers were involved in the J.T. Realmuto market for much of the offseason. Los Angeles, however, wasn’t willing to meet the prospect price tag put on Realmuto by the Marlins and instead shifted focus to old friend Russell Martin. While Martin’s bat is nowhere near what it once was, he maintained an elite walk rate and framing skills in 2018.
The other qualifying offer issued by the Dodgers went to lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu, who accepted the $17.9MM payday rather than test his strong but injury-riddled track record on the open market. At the time, it was at least worth wondering whether a team might’ve committed multiple years and a slightly higher guarantee (at a lower annual rate) to Ryu. However, given the manner in which the offseason played out, Ryu has to be quite happy with his decision to remain in Los Angeles at a premium rate. His return gave the Dodgers an even more enviable collection of rotation depth, joining Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Kenta Maeda, Rich Hill, Julio Urias and Ross Stripling (among others).
Corey Seager’s return to the lineup only bolstered the Dodgers’ offensive potential, and Alex Verdugo’s ascension up the minor league ladder gives the Dodgers another high-upside bat upon which to dream. Verdugo’s rise (and the signing of Pollock) allowed L.A. to at least explore the possibility of trading Joc Pederson this winter, with the Braves and White Sox among the rumored suitors. However, there was apparently never anything that convinced the Dodgers to take the plunge, and Pederson remains on hand as part of a roster that features largely unmatched depth in both the infield and outfield.
Questions Remaining
That’s not to say that there aren’t questions surrounding the roster even in light of a hot start to the season. The lineup is deep and more dangerous than ever thanks to Cody Bellinger doing his best Ted Williams impression, but it’s hard not to look at the pairing of Martin and Austin Barnes behind the dish and wonder whether the duo brings enough offense to the table. The asking price for Realmuto from the Dodgers was surely steep, but imagining a lineup that pairs him with this version of Bellinger and the rest of the Dodgers’ potent bats seems almost unfair to opposing pitchers. Biting that bullet could’ve made this lineup into a veritable juggernaut, and it’s not hard to see the Dodgers seeking catching help come July. Perhaps catching prospect Will Smith will be MLB-ready by that point, but that’s hardly a given.
It’s a somewhat similar tale in the bullpen, where the Dodgers have ample options but relatively little in terms of established arms. Kenley Jansen has begun to show signs that he is, in fact, human after years of unhittable ninth-inning mastery, and while Kelly was brought in as an expected top-quality setup option, the Dodgers took their typical approach of cobbling together a relief unit beyond that point. Pedro Baez has been a good but sometimes shaky option in the ’pen for years. Dylan Floro is one of the quietest bargain finds the Dodgers have made.
But the mix of JT Chargois, Scott Alexander, Caleb Ferguson, Yimi Garcia, Josh Sborz and Jaime Schultz isn’t as solid as one would expect from a team with legitimate World Series aspirations. It’s true that Julio Urias and Tony Cingrani are also factors, but durability questions with that duo are even more pronounced than with most relievers. Adding another arm to the ’pen to deepen the mix would’ve been prudent, and it seems almost inevitable that the Dodgers will be in that market a couple months from now. There’s a clear on-paper match with Craig Kimbrel, but signing him would push the team into luxury tax territory, and Kimbrel’s asking price apparently hasn’t dropped to the point where Los Angeles (or any other club) is willing to jump on board. It doesn’t seem all that likely that they’ll be the team to sign him in the end.
2019 Season Outlook
The Dodgers entered the season as clear favorites in the National League West, and a poor start to the season for their primary competitors in Denver didn’t do much to change that line of thinking. Surprisingly hot starts from the upstart Padres and the wait-aren’t-they-kind-of-rebuilding Diamondbacks have added an interesting wrinkle to the division, but the Dodgers are still pacing the group. With the talent and depth cultivated by president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and his staff, as well as that group’s willingness to make a trade to plug holes as they arise, the Dodgers are still the favorites to take the NL West. Whether they can finally get over the hump and convert a postseason berth into a World Series trophy is the true question.
How would you grade the Dodgers’ offseason? (Poll link for Trade Rumors app users)
if someone complains about how late this was posted, ill be sick. does no one understand how the unusual nature of recent offseasons makes making these on time a bit harder?
oh the poll is wrong…lol
Should be fixed.
yeah, it was fixed right after my comment posted. keep up the good work Jeff.
Pollock / Kelly is a bust should have spent the extra money for Kimbrel / Harper. Their offense is only a threat when Joc plays just let him play!!!!
It takes more than 1 month into multi year deals to judge them. Just a thought
First off, for the money, pollock is better than Harper. Is pollock the better player on the field? No, but I am glad we didn’t spend $330 mil on an albatross contract that Harper will become. I would take the pollock deal every day of the week over the Harper deal. Second, the joe kelly deal was a head scratcher to me (should have gotten Britton) but I still think he has the ability to step up in the right spots, just like the World Series last year for the Red Sox. Don’t give up on him yet because he just has to find himself and then everyone will see why they spent $25 mil on him. Third, have you ever seen joc pederson hit against left handed pitchers? By that comment I already know you haven’t. Trust me there is a reason he doesn’t start every game. It’s because he is literally allergic to left handers and can’t hit worth a nickel against them. So don’t tell me he should be there everyday.
Oh isn’t it fun to say that LA should’ve potentially spent close to $400M when it isn’t your money. The season is only around 30 games in and the Dodgers have the best record in the NL…..but let’s complain! I’m sure you also feel they should’ve traded for Trout and resigned Machado.
I liked what I saw from Joe Kelly in Boston, solid middle inning guy with high velo, but he did not deserve the contract we gave him and it’s currently showing.
I’m judging by they have no track record!!! Really think it’s going to change now? Nope
No matter what they did Roberts would still mismanage it.
Addition by subtraction.
That’s about it: Addition by subtraction. LAD will lose a great deal of salary after the season.
I gave LAD a “B” but, maybe it should’ve been a “D”. Its hard not to assume they could’ve gotten a better CF (or stayed with Joc Peterson) and a younger back up catcher for Puig, Kemp, Wood and all the other players they traded away. Every one of their trades and free agent signings look like LAD came up short.
Not really, you’re making some major assumptions that just aren’t true. You seem to be overvaluing the tv of that combination. The combination was talented, but had its clear flaws. They got what I thought they were going to get for short term contracts, interesting lotto tickets.
First off their stable of young Cs makes a need for young back up non existent. They were either going top of the market or sticking with what they had. And it became apparent top of the market asks weren’t worth it. You chose the two positions were there is a clear top floor, but the gap after is massive. No one was going to give up plus ready made prospects with control for that collection of short term players. Personally I liked the trades as I felt those pieces didn’t quite fit anymore. Now as signings I’ll reserve judgement at this moment.
Matt Kemp has negative trade value. But sure he could have fetched a young backup C.
My argument was never centered around them being able to acquire a young back up C. That’s sort of the opposite of what was needed. In reality there was zero need for a young back up C. It’d basically block what they have. The need was for a veteran C in the top tier or one to compliment Barnes.
Again, the return for an mlb ready player would be about middling. To say they came up short is presumptuous. Expensive players with little control , who are more so good yet not really everyday middle of the order/ TOR guy mixed with a roster casualty isn’t going to net you much value beyond what they received.
That was a reply to Gary
The significance of the payroll coming off the books next season is overstated. Most of that salary is for players they can’t replace with less expensive and at least equivalent internal options. Not going backwards means spending that money on the free agent market. Also not figured in is arbitration increases for a number of key players. Payroll wise, next season will be wash, at best, and if they want to get better, it will be difficult not to spend more.
A wash? Arbitration wont cost 80 million which is what according to sportrac is how much they are getting off the book next year. I expect 1 of Ryu/Hill to be resigned but that still will give them lots of room.
I didn’t say arbitration would cost $80m, but it could easily be $20m with the number of cases. And it’s more than just the production of Ryu and Hill that will need to be replaced. But just starting with them proves my point. Whether they re-sign one of them, or both, or neither, doesn’t much matter. No matter who they sign to pitch at their level it’s going to be at a similar.cost. They might well be thinking Urias can slide into one of those rotation slots and possibly Stripling the other next year but I wouldn’t bank on it, let alone, that it makes the team better. If you start with the premise of getting better, or at least not going backwards, then that $35m is pretty difficult to count as real payroll space. It’s easy to see where $50-60m of the $80m is effectively already committed. So that’s why I say the number is overstated.
Trades I understand and somewhat fine. I mean that’s all they could get. Your right can’t do much about that. Signings now didn’t have to pay or do that at all. Call it what you will I just had a feeling Pollock / Kelly will be a bust they have no track record. Honestly what Friedman signing has been good? I much rather see Bellinger in Center with Verdugo in right or vice versa everyday.
Not a lot to be added to this analysis. Key points: Nabbing Realmuto would have turned a very good lineup into a juggernaut and his two years would have supplied a perfect blend-in period for Smith or Ruiz. They needed to find a setup guy to backup Jansen and who could be used as a spot closer. What about his history gave them the confidence that Kelly was the man for the job is a mystery, and not just because of his horrific first month but because his regular season track record just isn’t very good. After Floro pretty much everybody else in the bullpen is questionable. Maybe good enough to win the division again, but good enough to get over the big hill at the end? Always the question.
If they would have been seriously chasing another WS they would’ve signed at least Harper and have a serious run at Kimbrel. They have no real depth in the outfield and you can never have enough high leverage arms in the pen. They may do well in the regular season since they are in the weak NL West, but playoffs are won and lost with stars then secondary players backing them up. They did not build that formula and will be sitting out November baseball this year.
They still have an enviable amount of depth in the OF. In fact Verdugo is still somewhat blocked from everyday ABs because of it. They’ve done such a tremendous job of evaluating internal talent that they have good barring on their offensive needs. Harper for all the hype was never really a great fit for this team. Kimbrel, again everyone complains about the Dodgers not signing him, still doesn’t fix the Dodgers problems or even the trickledown potential. Plus, it’s beyond presumptions to believe he would have agreed to fill the Dodgers needs. What I’m sort of hinting at is we’ve seen repeatedly that winning the offseason has zero barring on October/November, and because the Dodgers didn’t sign either their roster will remain static. I’d actually argue the TDL has more of an impact on winning the WS. How the team fills the needs that are apparent is more impactful.
Bellinger
Pollock
Pederson
Verdugo
Hernandez
Taylor
The only guy I don’t trust out of that group is Taylor, who looks utterly lost at the plate. But even then, he can play 2B/SS and all three OF positions. The Dodgers OF is six players deep, and half of them can play competently in the infield.
some of you seem to be forgetting the Dodgers have had a helluva farm system. Maybe it’ll dry up but their history, like the Cardinals, is their ability to have a steady stream of players come up thru the system and use some of them for trade bait for a veteran and/or allow for higher priced players to walk away, like Grienke, and Machado. And the notion that after only one month, Kelly & Pollack are “busts” is just absurd.
Pollock will probably be fine short of some new fluky injury. Kelly looked bad before the ink was dry on his contract. He’s had maybe two good seasons in his entire career. What did they see in him, other than how he turns into a completely different player in the postseason?
Kelly has a big time arm. Getting relief pitchers is just a crapshoot. Many people in STL now question signing Andrew Miller. They look at the ERA and get all excited. But a guy can have 8 games in a row where he gives up no runs in one inning of work and if he gets hammered in that 9th game for 5 runs, his ERA is 5. So, that ERA is relative. I would take eight great games in return for one bad one every time.
Kelly gives up a home run every time he pitches except if the ball is hit off the wall haha
I don’t rely on ERA. Especially for relief pitchers I look at WHIP. This stat shows how well a reliever is doing at keeping runners off the base paths. Kelly’s career WHIP is 1.4. Mediocre at best. So far this year it’s an awful 1.75, which isn’t a surprise because we also know that he’s given up a run in 9 of his 11 appearances so far. Kelly’s “big time arm” has only played well in the postseason. You can look at his 8 years in the majors before coming to the Dodgers and see that pretty clearly, without considering ERA at all.