“If we play up to our capabilities we will easily make the playoffs. That’s how I see it,” Red Sox principal owner John Henry told WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford in London this weekend before Boston’s two-game series with the Yankees. The Sox dropped both of those games to fall 11 games behind New York in the AL East standings, and two games out of an AL wild card slot.
At just 44-40 on the season, the Sox are far behind the pace set by their 2018 World Series team, which won 108 games in the regular season and then went 11-3 in the playoffs to capture the franchise’s fourth Commissioner’s Trophy since 2004. The Red Sox haven’t won back-to-back titles, however, and Henry noted that following up a championship run has been a challenge.
While this year’s Red Sox seem decidedly better than the 2014 team that finished in the AL East basement, Henry noted that in both 2014 and 2019, the club didn’t make many roster alternations over the winter.
“My take is that maybe it isn’t the best thing in the world to bring back the same team in its entirety every time,” Henry said. “You don’t want to break a team down. But maybe a few changes wouldn’t hurt. But the feeling is always different after you win, apparently.”
On paper, there wasn’t really too much for the Sox to address over their quiet offseason, though their lack of bullpen depth was seen as a problem in March and has blossomed into a full-blown concern as we enter July. While Boston’s bullpen and starting pitchers still rank in the top half of the league in most statistical categories (Sox relievers lead the league in K/9), both have been prone to breakdowns at inopportune times. The rotation has been largely carried by David Price and Chris Sale, the latter of whom has looked like his traditionally dominant self after a subpar April. But Rick Porcello and Eduardo Rodriguez haven’t pitched well, while the fifth starter’s spot has been a revolving door of shaky performances since Nathan Eovaldi has spent much of the year on the injured list.
A possible answer to these problems, of course, is a big addition or two at the trade deadline, though the Red Sox won’t have much room to maneuver if they are to stay under the $246MM threshold for the maximum luxury tax penalty. The Sox passed this threshold last season, costing the team a little under $12MM in tax payments and a 10-spot drop for their first selection in the 2019 draft.
Between Porcello, Rodriguez, Eovaldi, the injured Dustin Pedroia, underperforming veterans Steve Pearce and Eduardo Nunez, and the $30MM+ in dead money still on the books for Rusney Castillo and Pablo Sandoval, the Sox have roughly $100MM committed to players who have combined for only +0.6 fWAR in 2019.
It should be noted that as per the calculations from Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, the Sox are again in position to surpass the $246MM threshold, with an estimated luxury tax number of roughly $251.4MM. If the team is indeed over the line with little hope of getting under the $246MM, one could argue that the Red Sox might as well go ahead and spend more in an all-out push for another World Series. MLBTR’s Steve Adams outlined Boston’s financial restraints back in February, and while the Red Sox would face an even stiffer penalty for passing the $246MM limit in consecutive years, a big-market team like Boston is more suited to handling such extra expenses.
This doesn’t appear likely, however, as Henry doesn’t see spending (or a perceived lack of spending) as the problem.
“It’s not a luxury tax issue, it’s a question of how much money do we want to lose,” Henry said. “We’re already over budget and we were substantially over our budget last year and this year. We’re not going to be looking to add a lot of payroll. And it’s hard to imagine fielding a better team. If we play up to our capabilities we’ll be fine. That’s the question: Will we? We’re halfway through and we haven’t….It’s a worthy team because we invested. Two years in a row we have the highest payroll. It’s not a matter of investment, it’s a matter of playing well.“
“but the feeling is different after you win, apparently” That sounds like a shot at DD and the FO for spending his money on bringing back Pearce and Eovaldi to me.
Nate gave up his health to help the Sox win the WS. Pearce has been legit hurt n why he hasn’t produced. The problem is the fat Panda who stole the money n ate himself outta a role in Boston. Didn’t he go public before about finances before?
I’m not claiming that Eovaldi and Pearce are the Red Sox worst financial decisions by any means. I’m just talking about his quote here. Pedroia, Sandoval, and Rusney are stinging a lot more than 2 guys who could still potential help this team.
Castillo could be helping if they put him on the roster. Pedroia’s dollar hit is nothing compared to what he gave that organization. The Pearce signing was awful and Panda was even worse.
Panda didn’t “steal” anything. Boston willingly gave him that money
“Panda didn’t “steal” anything. Boston willingly gave him that money”
It was certainly a self-inflicted wound, but if someone was charging you $100/hour to fix your roof, and 30 minutes of every hour was spent climbing up and down the ladder, because he was 300 pounds, it feels like he is ‘stealing’ at least a little of that money.
OTOH, since the RS apparently think he had 17% body fat, then they have lost all sympathy, imo. Dude probably had 30 of fat on top of my 20 pounds of fat, and I am pretty certain I’m not particularly close to 17% body fat.
It was an insult to my intelligence.
The Redsox gave Panda money n it is HIS responsibility to give them what they paid for. Baseball can’t return a faulty product. The Redsox have him money in good faith, n he showed no good faith.
“The Redsox gave Panda money n it is HIS responsibility to give them what they paid for.”
The problem, as it often is, is that the RS paid for a fat player with declining stats. And that’s what they got. It shouldn’t have been as bad as it turned out, He went from a .909 OPS, to .789, to .758 to ..739.
What is a guy with a .739, with -0- speed, and -0- lateral movement, worth?
It reminds me of the SFG signing Zito, who was coming off a horrible 1.53 K/W and a bad 4.89 FIP. And then being surprised when he gave them a horrible 1.58 K/W and a bad 4.82 FIP.
How did he steal money? The Red Sox were stupid for signing him to that deal in the first place.
I read that as more of a shot at the players, not DD or the front office.
No, it sounds like there’s no point in throwing good money after bad to me.
I get what he’s saying but dude look at the pen they are garbage top to bottom not one bright spot in the bunch
“I get what he’s saying but dude look at the pen they are garbage top to bottom not one bright spot in the bunch”
To say they needed a closer is fair. But Barnes, Brasier, and Workman are all quality RPs. Like I said in the off-season, those 3 are fine 6-7-8 inning guys, just not closers.
It’s also not their fault that, through a combination of lack of quality backups, that those three are in every RS victory, combined by a rather idiotic ‘starter’ philosophy to replace Eovaldi.
what team are you watching John Henry this team is trash top to bottom. They are not making the playoffs with that bullpen or rotation they need to spend some money if they want to fix this team this year.
Is he watching the same team that won last year? It’s amazing how quickly a team turns to trash I guess.
Not trash, just more in line with what they were in 2016/2017. Solid team but not on the super status they were last year
There’s a few factors for those of us that watch the games.
1) Bullpen – Starting with the obvious, this bullpen is not constructed in a way that works in 2019. It might have slid by in ’99 when there were plenty of complete games still thrown, pitch counts weren’t in the 100s in the 6th inning. The game has changed and some owners are reluctant to spend resources on a position that they see as a graveyard for failed starters for the most part. Henry has to realize this and DD has a reputation for ignoring it.
2) Timely Hitting – This team is still a top 10 offense in almost every category. But they aren’t doing it when it matters. Last season, they could be down 3-4 runs in the 8th and they figured out a way to win. Now even when we get a few runs, the bullpen problem above blows it. It disheartens a team, whether they admit it or not.
3) Bad Extensions – Not saying they won’t play out well, but there was no reason to rush to extend Sale and Bogaerts at close to max value. They are both playing well, but if you look up and want to reconfigure a bit, these two contracts will hamstring anything you’re trying to do. There was no reason for it. At the dollars they paid, they probably could have gotten them back in free agency. Now you feel committed to this roster and its much harder to make a dynamic shift.
4) The false pretense – There’s a false pretense that the Sox can’t let Betts go. Quite the contrary. Guys like Betts’ skills and size don’t tend to age all that well and I think whoever shells out 350-400 million on him will not see near that level of production. The Sox should maximize his value and trade him rather then seeing him walk away. With Sale/Price/Bogy and raises for Benintendi and Devers and Chavis becoming a probable Super Two, Pedroia’s dead weight, there are other considerations that will not allow the Sox to commit 35-40 mil annual on one more player. Betts has made clear he will test free agency.
The Sox probably saved themselves 60 million on the Bogaerts extension. Coming off a year like this in a FA class that won’t be terribly strong would’ve been great for him. That deal is a very good one. It only runs until his age 32 season. Not something I’d get mad about. The Sale deal might not look so hot on the back end but Bogey’s deal is a pretty solid value for his performance. You had no internal replacement for him.
Agree on Betts. Too inconsistent year to year to make 35-40. Trade him this year and maximize his value.
“Bad Extensions – Not saying they won’t play out well, but there was no reason to rush to extend Sale and Bogaerts at close to max value.”
Bogaerts’ contract is one of the best in BB. I like the Sale contract as well, but you can almost tell with a pitcher.
Sin, he’s watching his soccer team!
Should have shaken up the roster a bit. If they didn’t already extend Xander and Sale they could have traded them at the deadline for prospects and resigned them this off season.
Like what the yanks did with Chapman?
exactly. get the prospects and then resign them. only costs money, but too late now
That would’ve been a great theory til Bogey decides he loves LA and Sale really likes it in Philly. It’s a great theory when it works. The farm is what it is. At some point the Red Sox will have to pay the piper for the lack of talent in the pipeline but that’s a down the road issue. You only have Mookie for another year guaranteed. Sale isn’t getting any younger either. They certainly didn’t think on March 1st they’d be sellers so that’s a complete hindsight opinion to suggest they ever would’ve sold Sale or Bogey.
You’re looking at it objectively, the reality is most people hit the market and ask for the most money they can earn. Offer him the most money and the guy will likely sign with that team, it’s not like the Yankees low balled Chapman.
Pujols loved St Louis, however LA offered him the most money at 10-year, $254 million with no deferred money. St Louis meanwhile offered him 10 years and $210 million with $30M deferred,
I can see the point of locking up someone before they hit the market, you need to be in the ballpark of an offer and sometimes GMs don’t want to deal with agents who always seem to have someone “offering more” like say A-Rod (Texas) and Chris Davis (Orioles) “had” in which reality the teams were bidding against themselves because they were too desperate for their services.
“Should have shaken up the roster a bit. If they didn’t already extend Xander and Sale they could have traded them at the deadline for prospects and resigned them this off season.”
1-Why would anyone trade away their stars after they just won 108 games?
2-How much would those two have cost if we re-acquired them next winter? Sale would come back on slightly worse terms, and Bogaerts would be getting $30M per somewhere else.
3-How many guys actually return after they’ve been traded away? Chapman did, but anyone else?
Red Sox were probably too scared to do that after they botched the same thing with Lester.
What a load of €rap.
Sox aren’t going to “lose” money, there’s insane marketing money coming into play. The reality is they cheaped out on the BP from the start. Fix it to keep butts in the seats – as the year goes on, as terms get a read on these relievers, well, you need something more
Butts in seats don’t matter and haven’t for years.
The Sox can definitely be better but they’ll probably have to strengthen their bullpen. It’ll be interesting to see what the prospect cost will be considering it doesn’t seem like they don’t want to spend much money in trades.
Most rental relievers make 4-6 million dollars. That figure is prorated to the day they get dealt. So it’s really 2-3 million apiece on average for these guys. Will Smith is the guy they really need. Now and in the future. Might not be a bad head start to go out and get him now.
I’m only saying that because if Boston gets in the postseason they’re still as dangerous as any team. Id give the edge to the Yanks and Houston but if they get hot at the right time and add a legitimate closer you never know. Im certainly not supporting the Red Sox just packing it in. I think they could beat any WC team in a one game series and Houston currently only has two legitimate starters (and Wade Miley).
smith will probably be a tough get. Some debate a 55 prospect( I don’t think that) but at least a high end 50 , maybe 2. I didn’t realize his salary was only 4 mill. I was thinking it would be higher considering the contracts lately. I’m not saying this because I’m a Yankees fan, I think they could use him as well.
The idea that the luxury tax is going to hurt is bull****. They knew the Bullpen would be an issue when they didn’t resign Kimbrel or replace him. Maybe its time the fans started to vote with there feet. Do something else with your time. If they have not made some serious moves by the trade deadline I will decide its 1995 again. Need A new past time.
Good reason for all teams to slash payrolls when you have “fans” like you.
“Maybe its time the fans started to vote with there feet. ”
We’ve been the best team in BB this century, by a decent margin. This is why there are 30k+ in Fenway every night, and will continue to be so.
However, please feel free to take your business to another team. You won’t be missed.
The minute he opens the Boston Globe (HIS Boston Globe) and sees the lead headline reads “Tom Brady arrives at camp”, instead of “Mookie goes 4-4”, he’ll call DD and ask him how much he needs.
The loss of interest in the team, attendance (and all its auxiliaries, which he controls), and lower viewership for NESN FAR outweighs whatever beating he’ll take from Luxury Tax consequences, etc.
Not saying the moves they’ll make will be the right ones; who knows? But they’ll be active.
Hell, if mookie goes 4-4 at any point it should be front page news at this point
Yes, that’s the point.
Tom Brady is the GOAT.
Not Mookie.
It’s a shame Porcello hasn’t done well cuz he’s been amazing at times like his act Young yr. cuz he wants to stay in Boston. He’s a very good #4, Edwardo is an excellent #5, on any team. The problem is the Blow-pen. They keep throwing stats at the fans, but we watch they gave so many games away, n at this point all their arms are ready to fall off. I can’t even watch the late innings anymore, it’s painfully.
They greatly overpaid for Eovaldi. Maybe it was their way of showing gratitude for his playoff help. I think they’re would be two FA signings that were sure to send time on the DL. Tulo and Eovaldi. And they let Kimbrel, and to a lesser extent..Kelly, walk without a significant replacement. I guess they feel like they won last year so no need to go over the lux tax to repeat?
“And they let Kimbrel, and to a lesser extent..Kelly, walk without a significant replacement. I guess they feel like they won last year so no need to go over the lux tax to repeat?”
The RS can’t continue to just sign everyone. Eovaldi was too expensive, but he beat the heck out of the NYY, and that cannot be underrated.
IRT Kelly & Kimbrel, they were asking for ridiculous money. Kelly only had one good season. Kimbrel was really good, but he took a big step backwards last year, is 31, had a 5.91 ERA in the playoffs with a 10/8 K/W, and asked for $100M+. Even with 20/20 hind sight with our need for a closer, I still would not have re-signed those two.
Im not suggesting they capitulate and overpay anyone. They were right to pass on Kimbrel but clearly could’ve replaced him for 1/3 what he was asking for. But it’s interesting you agree they overpaid for Eovaldi who basically onny had 2 good year but several dl stints in gid career but point out you passed on Kelly who only had 1 good year. I’m interested to know what the competing offers were for Eovaldi. It’s less the annual dollars that would’ve concerned me but more the years. but im a Yanks fan so eh.
“I’m interested to know what the competing offers were for Eovaldi.”
We’ll probably never know. I liked Eovaldi at about $39M/3. He seemed healthy enough to get at least one good season out of him. Past that, he’s never much more than a #3, with a career 96 OPS+.
Even in his walk year, at 8/31, his ERA was a very pedestrian 4.35. Even his RS results, to that point, were a 2-3 with a 4.50. In September, he had a 1.35 ERA, and then a legendary playoff. And that’s worth something, and I am willing to pay for it, but $68M/4 was way too high.
For that type of money, we could’ve added 1/2 BP arms, and/or saved some money until the trading deadline.
Let’s be 100% clear, and they are way over the limit, they are at the third level of the luxury tax limit 246 million
i get that but they are the Red Sox fresh off a world series win. you figure it out even if it means weakening the offense to improve the pitching holes caused by Kimbrel and Kelly leaving.
What kind of window does this team have? No farm and a bunch high priced players. Clearly, they are underperforming, but I wonder how long before they turn into the Giants?
It might make sense to go for it and just accept that the franchise might have problems later.
I don’t see them turning into a consistent loser for awhile. SF has been and Boston hasn’t been in WELL over 50y.. Dream on if anybody thinks Boston will ever be a team that finishes bottom feeders on a continual basis.
This already happened. See 2012, 2014, 2015
Doesn’t look consecutive to me.. Get your facts correct. WS in 2013, 1st place 2016-2018. That’s not consistently bottom ranked as the team was late 50-s to early 60’s. Some teams can name find a habit of staying that way and Boston has NOT been that way for over 50y
Boston has too many resources to stay at the bottom but no team contends without a farm.
I’m just curious to see what happens.
Boston is heading down a path that will eventually cause them to reset. Boston with their abundance of resources shouldn’t have to rebuild more than 3 years at the Max. But at some point your going to owe a good amount of money to guys who aren’t worth it anymore. And they don’t have the farm system to pull up very good players/ all stars to make up for it like they have. There’s no Benintendi, Bogey’s, or Betts’ sitting down there and they’ll eventually pay for that. Especially once they have to pay serious dollars for or let Betts walk.
We have a pretty big window. Our guys under contract for 2021 and beyond:
Vazquez
Chavis
Bogaerts
Devers
Benintendi
JDM
Price
Barnes
Hembree
Brasier
Johnson
Sale
ERod
Eovaldi
And those guys only cost $136M. I’m not at all concerned about our window, Having said that, I wil have more interesting remarks below.
Some very players. Some that could easily fall apart.
I’m not saying Boston is going to stink for a decade, or anything silly. But, it’s legitimate to wonder how the team will compete with old players, a barren farm, and an endless supply of cash.
” a barren farm”
We have guys, just no top 10-20 types. What we have a bunch of Michael Chavis types-fringy top-100 guys that are a little down the line.
Casas, Dalbec, Duran, Hernadez, Groome
I’d still trade Betts for the right set of prospects, but I’m not overly worried.
Could you ship some of that ownership candor this way?
This team is going no where fast. That’s a beautiful thing. The future looks bleak. Gotta love it.
Red Sox gonna learn the hard way about dombrowski. Farm is gutted, no one to promote to give extra boost like Astros and Yankees have, already bumping the luxury tax payroll. His strategy works, but crushes the farm.
any should have seen it coming from a mile away, just ask any Tigers fan. He doesn’t care about the draft. Sox had a top 5 farm system when he took over (Thanks to Charrington) and it’s pretty bleak now.
That’s what happens when you graduate so many players from the minors to the big club, there’s a void in the minor leagues
Is a Wild Card berth worth trading away longer-term assets?
That’s the question many teams face each July.
Just for kicks: Could the Red Sox find a taker for J.D. Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi and David Price a la the 2012 trade of Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett and Carl Crawford?
Martinez and Gonzalez have parallels, as do Eovaldi and Beckett. Price’s contract is under water but not to the degree that Crawford’s was.
If I’m not mistaken, the answer is no, JD Martinez and David price have no trade clauses if I remember correctly…How about trading Mookie? He’s only under contract for another year and a half, and has stated that he would not sign an extension
And at least theoretically, he would bring back a kings ransom in return
According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, J.D. Martinez may block trades to three teams annually while David Price apparently has no no-trade protection:
link to legacy.baseballprospectus.com
“How about trading Mookie? ”
Yes, unless we start playing really well.
This is a different age of baseball. I don’t believe a team nowadays would have considered taking that Beckett package. Now, the Giants before Zaidi got there would’ve been a prime contender to take that but I think those days are gone.
“Rusney casillo” doesn’t count towards the 246 though
This organization doesn’t have the pieces to move to acquire established MLB relievers.
I’ve been saying this all season. 2019 I’d sink or swim with what you have. They won in 18’ so they feel like they can let 19’ happen and wait for some big $$$ contacts to expire and then make another run.
There was a time when winning a championship would buy more than a half year’s worth of goodwill from the fans.
Funny, the whole point of the Red Sox giving up two games in Fenway to go to London was to make money. Even after that, and coming off a championship, is the team really going to lose money?
Didn’t I see numbers saying that MLB gave the Red Sox $7 million for moving two of their home games to London? Also, didn’t I also see that they gave each of their players $60 thousand for going over there. The club chartered a luxury airliner for the trip. That eats up a bit of the $7M.
I never saw any figures on how the attendance money from the London games was allocated but they was a pretty large expense involved in transforming the soccer pitch into a baseball diamond. And there were all the efforts put forth to attract fans over there and also to help them understand the game. So, just how much money was made by the Red Sox?
John Henry was so embarrassed that the team flew back Virgin America in coach to save money.
Just wait til next year seems to be the Red Sox theme for the second half of the 2019 season. I totally agree. They don’t have to win every year.
This owner !!! Go rename another Street !!!
If they fall completely out of contention do they trade Mookie? He’s made it clear he will not sign an extension…. I think he would bring some serious talent in a trade
That’s not even an Option Mid Season
I’m not opposed to Trading Mookie but Offseason if anything, teams become more flexible Luxury Tax Resetting Wise
I wouldn’t do so, yet, but why is trading Betts to SD not a mid-season option?
Realistically, I don’t know how you would be extra-critical of John Henry. Boston could still take the Division, but adding a player doesn’t change either that a) one player on his own won’t likely be enough, and b) they have plenty of good players now, just a bit of underperformance. If the existing roster gets their act together they will be highly competitive. Regardless, unless you see a complete collapse, they will be in the playoffs, and after that, they have as good a chance as everyone else. So, are you really going to spend all that money (and prospect talent) just to make the odds a little better for a Division, so you can avoid a Wild Card playoff? Boston has had it pretty good the last 15 years…
Just like to add one player. A relief pitcher that can close out ball games in ninth inning.
Sox should sell at trade deadline and revamp for next season.
They have absolutely nothing to sell. All their rentals have little to no value. Porcello is making 20 million and has an ERA above 5. You aren’t getting anything for that. Pearce and Nunez are both worthless. Anything other than that is a long term piece. They either stay the course or try to add a reliever and go for it harder. Their rentals are worthless.
Sox if they are smart, will trade Mookie before he leaves. He will NOT resign here and go elsewhere for his HUGE contract. Take the assets and say thanks
Bye, Boston. See ya next year!
Where you going?
As a long-time RS fanatic, here’s my opinion:
I don’t mind giving them some time. If we start playing well, and get a healthy Eovaldi back. then Sale, Price, and Eovaldi can beat anyone.
Having said that, entering the playoffs as a wildcard makes the RS about a 16-1 shot. I don’t like that, but it’s not always our prom. Taking it to the next level, if we are tied with three teams for the last playoff slot, then our chances of a WSC are about 48-1.
If that is what it looks like in two weeks, than I’d trade both Betts & Porcello, and maybe Holt if we can’t reach an extension. I have no need to win another WSC after having won one last year. Rather than trade away precious prospects to slightly increase an outside shot this year, I’d be looking to throw caution to the wind this year, in hopes of increasing our changes over the next 5-6 years.
To that extent, I was thinking Betts for Renfroe + a top-100 from SD.
If Betts is on the table you’ll net a better package than Renfroe + a top 100. I don’t know if San Diego would necessarily be the team giving out the package but I could certainly see the Dodgers offering up a package.
Renfroe is pretty good. I’d wager that Renfroe has a higher WAR over his remaining 4.5 years than Betts over his 1.5 remaining years. I’d be pretty pleased with Renfroe, Patino, and maybe get Morejon and/or Espinoza back again.
I’d like to dream on getting Gore, but SD would be insane to give him up in addition to Renfroe.
It isn’t just the pen. They were actually pretty good until the last three weeks. They have been overused since day 1. It’s everybody. He was right to say that until other areas play better, investing in the pen makes no sense. The starters do just that. They are lucky to make it til the 5th. Seems like they score early and sit back after that of late. Defense is terrible. They are fat and happy, and it shows.
I agree. I’m not sure I said it before, but I am not especially inclined to invest in this team. Last year, I was. If the 5-man rotation was killing it, and we needed a closer, it would make sense. But Sale & Price have been really good, but not great. ERod & Porcello have been mediocre, and that’s being generous. And Eovaldi is hurt.
And when I posted yesterday, I had a tempus fugit moment, and didn’t realize how close to the trade deadline we were, and our SPs probably have only 2-3 starts to prove they are competing.
And, unlike a lot of RS fans, I am not going to lose my schiit if we don’t compete this year. But I also don’t want to play to an inside straight, or sit on my hands when another, true contender, wants to overpay for some of our players.
Henry sucks. He should go back to playing “Social Justice Warrior” and take Yawkey’s name off of something else
ROTFLMAO!!!
You’re either a troll with nothing to do in his life, or an embittered Yankee fan that Henry has mentally and psychologically broke, I suggest you seek help
“If we play up to our capabilities we will easily make the playoffs. That’s how I see it,”
Thank God you see it that way John Henry.
That’s exactly how I see it too.
I also suspect that John Henry generally has had it with long term FA contracts.
Bill James is probably the biggest winner here.
Dave Dombrowski and Alex Cora are probably the biggest losers.
Mookie Betts should also realize he’s going to have to find another team after 2020 if in fact he isn’t traded before then. If I’m John Henry I’d be really disappointed with Mookie Betts. Just think about how valuable Tom Brady has been to the Patriots. Mookie isn’t even close to being a GOAT and probably never will be.
So the dig John Henry is giving is to the people making the big bucks and the MVP.
I suspect he’s looking at better drafting, player development and management in 2020.
Diversification a lower budget and keeping hungry players striving is also what I suspect he’s seeing.
That big contracts generally breed disincentives and a lack of performance.
But I’m sure Tony Clark will defend his players yet again.
Just look at how Harper and Machado didn’t even make the All Star Team.
Who needs to throw away money?
It’s got to be embarrassing to see Tampa ahead of Boston at 25% the payroll.
And the Yankees ahead of Boston playing their 2nd string all year.
If I’m John Henry I’ve had it and I’m making some serious changes now and in 2020 and beyond to the way the Red Sox do business.
“f I’m John Henry I’ve had it and I’m making some serious changes now and in 2020 and beyond to the way the Red Sox do business.”
We’ve been the most successful team in BB this century, by a fair margin, and have just come off of one of the greatest seasons in BB history. I doubt that Henry is questioning the business model that brought us this success.
That doesn’t mean that anything is carved in stone. Every year is different.
Also, in regard to the “That big contracts generally breed disincentives and a lack of performance.”, that hasn’t been that much of an issue. Our long-term contracts are Sale, Price, JDM, Vazquez, Bogaerts, Eovaldi, and Pedroia. Two are hurt, and the other 5 are doing okay+.
It’s the shorter terms guys that are struggling: JBJ (great lately), Betts, Porcello, ERod…
I think what John Henry is saying is:
The plan isn’t working in 2019.
Throwing money at a Red Sox problem may not fix it.
Losing money makes no sense.
The team and he are both vulnerable when he spends and they don’t produce.
My take is that he is pissed that Tampa and NYY are ahead of BOS.
Considering Tampa has a payroll 25% of Boston’s.
And that the NYY did this with numerous injuries.
My take is that Bill James (sabermetrics) is making sense to him. And he may look to hire a new GM like Eric Neander of Tampa his new GM in 2020.
A GM that knows developing young inexpensive talent.
How can any owner argue with winning at 25% the price and reducing risk?
Here’s a question?
If Tampa and Boston switched cities.
The Tampa Bay Rays now become the Boston Red Sox.
And The Boston Red Sox become the Tampa Bay Rays.
Do you think attendance changes at either ballpark?
Do you think the Boston Red Sox fans want to see their favorite players?
Or do you think Boston Red Sox fans prefer winning more with no names?
Do you think Tampa fans attandance is more at Tropicanna field?
Due to having Betts, JD, Sale, Price, etc?
Do you think Fox TV picks up the baseball stars or the winning teams?
Do you think people buy MLB paraphernalia of the stars or winners more?
Which system brings in the most bottom line revenue for the owner?
Big names or wins with no names?
I suspect the answer clearly is WINNING.
Or teams would’t unload expensive big name talent at the trade deadline.
Am I right?
So if I am right then winning is paramount.
And if winning is paramount then spending less to win is even more paramount.
That’s the business model every successful businessman uses.
And you don’t take risks if you can avoid them.
So 2019 is a disaster for Boston.
I suspect John Henry may be looking at 2020 and beyond.
He may throw some small extra money into 2019 if he is within range of the playoffs.
But he may also be thinking of unloading payroll at the deadline.
I suspect this is John Henry’s frustration and dilemma.
If I were the owner I would pick up the minimum I needed to make a run at it in 2019 and unload dead weight in the off season.
Assuming I could unload it.
LOL
And I would definitely hire a Billy Beane or Eric Neadner type of GM as my new GM for 2020. A Bill James friendly type guy.
.
I agree to the extent that 2019 is not working out. And I agree that it might be foolish to throw valuable resources towards making a run to beat out 3 other teams in order to have a one-game playoff.
Especially with only one SP pitching like a #1.
However, it is impossible to compare the RS and TB. By virtue of losing, TB gets much higher picks, and grabs additional picks when they allow players to leave.
They are also in a mode of semi-permanent low expectations.. They traded off Longoria, Archer, Colome, Dickerson, etc., and couldn’t care less what the fans think. The RS are always expected to compete for the WS. We’re not allowed to trade away good players each year.
Having said that, I would adapt some of TB’s operating principles. Unless we sweep Detroit, I would trade Betts, Porcello, and Holt (assuming we can’t extend him) over the AS break. For a team of our stature, backing into the #2 WC is certainly no victory.
The most I can see the Red Sox doing is getting a SP like Mike Leake.
Having made the decision to put Eovaldi in the pen leaves a hole for a SP.
Losing Eovaldi was probably a big factor in burning out the pen and a cause for creating a gaping hole on the pitching staff by giving him the money rather than Kimbrel.
Unless they find a way to unload some heavy dead weight payroll in a trade.
In other words find a sap team that has the bucks and wants dead weight big name payroll players that under perform.
Any suggestions on whom that team may be? LOL
Here’s an idea.
Hire Eric Neander of Tampa as your new GM.
It not only helps Boston it also weakens Tampa.
Can you see Tampa hiring Dombrowski? LOL
I have a feeling Red Sox get Bumgarner/Smith and give Bumgarner 3 year extension. Would make sense since Porcello a Free Agent next year. Question is who you give up? Dalbec? Houck? Groom?
Kind of an off year for Mad Bum, and he is just about 30. As a RS fan, I am not real keen on adding, unless they show me a little more with what they have.
John Henry has been the best Red Sox owner of all time.
He is a class human being.
He is a very successful businessman both before and since he got into baseball.
He owns a franchise (Boston) that is obsessed with baseball and winning.
He has good people advising him. Bill James, Tony LaRoussa, Dave Dombroski and others.
He made a lot of sense talking to Billy Beane in Moneyball when he saw the logic of sabermetrics.
He needs to get more involved on a daily basis with the Red Sox decision making.
He made his money with his intelligence and he’ll expand his wealth using that judgement.
He needs to put money into the best scouts, managers and coaches that can draft and develop raw baseball talent.
He needs to resist the temptation to acquire expensive older players on the free agent market that are asking for the long term big buck contracts.
Just compare Michael Chavis to Bryce Harper and or Manny Machado in 2019.
Or even Mookie Betts and or JD Martinez.
And you’ll see that good players can be had much more inexpensively.
As you did with trading commodity futures, ignore the hype, study the trends and stick to your game plan.
You simply need to be more involved.