Archives for July 2019

Brewers, Giants Have Discussed Will Smith Trade

By Steve Adams | July 15, 2019 at 1:06pm CDT

The Brewers and Giants have been in talks about a potential trade that would send lefty Will Smith from San Francisco back to Milwaukee, reports Robert Murray of The Athletic (subscription required). The Giants are particularly interested in second base prospect Mauricio Dubon, per Murray, though he specifies that no deal is close between the two clubs.

It’s not clear that Milwaukee would have any actual interest in dealing Dubon, particularly for a rental. As a player who’s already made his MLB debut after enjoying success in both Double-A and Triple-A, Dubon would be a costly price to pay in exchange for a half-season of a player — even an elite reliever. Dubon is widely considered to be among the Brewers’ five best prospects and boasts a career .300/.335/.479 batting line in 762 plate appearances at Triple-A. That’s not to say such a swap is out of the realm of possibility, however, particularly given how steep the demand for Smith will be. To this point, Smith has been linked to the Cardinals, Dodgers, Rays and Twins, among others. Beyond that, the Giants will have multiple relievers available (Sam Dyson, Tony Watson and perhaps Reyes Moronta), which creates myriad trade scenarios.

Smith is not only the top rental reliever on the market, he’s legitimately been one of the best relievers on the planet in 2019 (while earning an affordable $4.25MM). In 37 1/3 innings for the Giants this season, the southpaw has pitched to an excellent 2.17 ERA with 13.0 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 0.72 HR/9 and a 45.3 percent ground-ball rate. The 30-year-old Smith has struck out a career-high 39.4 percent of the hitters he’s faced in 2019 while demonstrating his best command of the strike zone since 2013.

The Brewers, meanwhile, have seen one of their greatest weapons in 2018 dwindle in 2019 with the decline of their relief corps. Josh Hader leads the team in saves and is posting historic strikeout numbers for a second straight season (50.3 percent), but he’s already allowed as many home runs (nine) in 45 innings as he did last year in 81 1/3 frames. Corey Knebel had Tommy John surgery and won’t pitch in 2019. Jeremy Jeffress was terrific through mid-June, but he missed a couple of weeks early due to shoulder fatigue and has hit a rough patch (7.15 ERA) over the past month.

Smith is far from the Brewers’ only option as they pursue bullpen trades — as is evident when perusing MLBTR’s list of the market’s top 60 trade candidates — but he’s also a known commodity in Milwaukee. The Brewers traded Smith to the Giants prior to the 2016 non-waiver trade deadline in a deal that netted them righty Phil Bickford and catcher Andrew Susac. Bickford, a former first-round pick, has yet to progress beyond Class-A Advanced. Susac was traded to the Orioles for cash after being designated for assignment in February 2018.

Royals Likely To Move Hamilton, Gore

By Steve Adams | July 15, 2019 at 11:51am CDT

So much focus this time of the year is placed on the biggest names on the trade market. And while it’s understandable that everyone wants to know where Madison Bumgarner, Marcus Stroman and other players of that ilk will land, it’s also true that smaller-scale deals can often have considerable postseason ramifications. To that end, while neither move will generate much in the way of national headlines, it’s worth noting that the Royals are all but certain to trade both Billy Hamilton and Terrance Gore (who has already been designated for assignment) in the near future.

The switch-hitting Hamilton has recently been dropped to a backup role following the promotion of former top prospect Bubba Starling and hasn’t started a game since July 3. “There’s definitely interest out there,” Hamilton tells MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan, noting that he’s regularly in touch with his agent about his future. It stands to reason, of course, that his representatives are in contact with the K.C. front office about Hamilton’s status.

As Hamilton further explains, Royals general manager Dayton Moore and the rest of the organization were professional and up-front with him about the fact that he’d lose playing time to Starling, giving him notice well in advance of the move: “I really appreciate it from [general manager] Dayton [Moore] all the way down. … I understand that that’s their guy. That’s part of the business.”

A trade of Hamilton seems likely and could come anytime between now and July 31. A move involving Gore might be even more immediate, though. The Royals designated Gore for assignment on July 12, which kicked off a seven-day period to either trade Gore, attempt to pass him through outright waivers or release him. As The Athletic’s Alec Lewis writes (subscription required), even if Gore hits waivers and goes unclaimed, Moore will likely find a way to place the speedster with a contender. Following Gore’s DFA, Moore said to reporters: “I told Terrance yesterday that when we signed him, we said, ‘Look, Terrance, if we’re not in this thing, we’ll look to find you a spot with a contending team so you can do your thing in October.”

Both 28 years of age, Hamilton and Gore are cut from the same cloth as elite baserunners and defenders who offer minimal value at the plate. Hamilton carries far more MLB experience, having spent a half decade as the Reds’ primary center fielder. However, while he authored four straight seasons with at least 56 stolen bases, he’s never even approached a league-average campaign with the bat. A career .243/.297/.327 hitter, Hamilton has only managed a .217/.284/.271 slash in his first season away from Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. He’s earning $5.25MM in 2019, with $2.76MM yet to be paid out. And, as Flanagan adds, he could earn another another $1MM via plate-appearance-based incentives.

Gore, meanwhile, has never received any type of extended look in the big leagues. In fact, despite entering the 2019 season with 27 career stolen bases, Gore only had 19 plate appearances as a Major Leaguer. He’s been used almost exclusively as a pinch-runner and defensive replacement with the Royals and Cubs. To his credit, Gore batted .275/.362/.353 in 58 plate appearances this season — including a perfect 4-for-4 showing when attempting to bunt for a hit. He’s only a .221/.304/.271 hitter in Triple-A and a .257/.333/.277 hitter in Double-A, however, so it’s understandable that teams have been reluctant to give him a regular look in the game’s highest level.

Gore’s glove and wheels have frequently landed him on postseason rosters as a pinch-running specialist, but the elimination of August trades in 2019 means any team wishing to utilize him in that capacity will need to acquire him sooner than usual. Hamilton could land a similar role, but one would think that with his MLB experience, he’d be in line for a bit more playing time. The return in each deal will be minimal, but both players have the type of niche skill set that can impact both a playoff race and a postseason series. The greater question may be one of whether a contending team wants to carry either player for the final 10 weeks of the season. It’s possible, particularly with Gore, that other teams will show greater interest once he’s cleared waivers and can be acquired without immediately requiring a 40-man roster spot.

Mychal Givens Drawing Trade Interest

By Steve Adams | July 15, 2019 at 9:51am CDT

The Orioles made their first of what will likely be several trades over the weekend when they dealt Andrew Cashner to the Red Sox, and Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports that closer Mychal Givens is drawing interest and is “definitely” available — a departure from recent seasons under previous front office management. The Phillies and Nationals, in particular, have interest in Givens, per the report. Obviously, a deal with the Nats would be difficult to hammer out when the two clubs continue to be embroiled in the ongoing dispute over MASN television rights fees.

Givens’ 2019 numbers are pedestrian at first glance. The right-hander’s 4.50 ERA is wholly unremarkable, and even last season’s 3.99 mark hardly generates excitement. Front offices aren’t going to put much stock in earned run average when evaluating a pitcher, however, particularly amid 2019’s home run deluge. Givens entered the season having averaged well less than a homer per nine innings pitched in his career, but he’s served up eight long balls in 36 innings in 2019. That’s led to a spike in his ERA, but it’s of some note that nine of the 18 earned runs he’s given up this year were surrendered in a combined two outings (a four-run meltdown in June and a five-run outing in May — both fueled by homers).

Looking beyond his ho-hum ERA, Givens offers a fair bit of intrigue. First and foremost, this year’s 12.8 K/9 and 34.5 percent overall strikeout rate are easily career-best marks. He’s also sporting a career-high 15.3 percent swinging-strike rate and 32 percent opponents’ chase rate on out-of-zone pitches. Givens’ 95.1 mph average fastball is right in line with his career rate, and the spin rate on that heater checks into the 77th percentile among MLB hurlers.

A rudimentary look at Givens’ splits reveals what many would expect to be the case: his home park hasn’t done him any favors. Six of the eight long ball surrendered by Givens have come at Camden Yards. On the road, opponents have managed an awful .185/.286/.315 output against him.

Digging a bit deeper, opposing hitters have posted a .350 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against Givens, but that’s almost entirely a function of the aforementioned home run issues. He’s yielded just a .217 batting average and a .304 on-base percentage thus far on the season. Based on the quality of contact he’s allowed, Statcast projects an expected wOBA of just .297 — significantly lower than the league average of .324 (excluding pitchers).

With any trade candidate, the player’s contract plays a sizable role in driving trade interest. In the case of Givens, the Orioles are in an advantageous position. He’s earning a minimal $2.15MM in 2019 and is controlled via arbitration through the 2021 season. With only about $890K of this season’s salary yet to be paid out, Givens is affordable for any contender and can also be viewed as a relatively long-term option, both of which should fuel interest between now and July 31. He may not be as appealing a trade chip as teammate Trey Mancini, but Givens is the highest-valued asset the Orioles seem decidedly likely to move.

Latest On Cubs’ Trade Deadline Focus

By Steve Adams | July 15, 2019 at 8:45am CDT

The Cubs’ signing of Craig Kimbrel last month may have crossed one item off their trade deadline to-do list, but the NL Central division leaders aren’t necessarily sitting back. Manager Joe Maddon spoke openly over the weekend about the manner in which the team is missing the “consistent” and “professional” at-bats brought to the table by Ben Zobrist (link via Tom Musnick of the Chicago Sun-Times), and Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago/670 The Score reports that the Cubs are in the market for a veteran hitter to whom they can entrust leadoff duties.

Levine understandably pegs Kansas City’s Whit Merrifield as the ideal fit for the Cubs’ need but adds that the Royals have placed an enormous price on the 30-year-old, who signed an eminently affordable four-year, $16.25MM extension this past winter. The Kansas City front office would seek as many as three controllable, big-league-ready players in any trade involving Merrifield, per Levine. It stands to reason that virtually any contending team in baseball would want to get its hand on Merrifield, who is hitting .309/.361/.500 and vying for a second consecutive season in which he paces the league in hits. However, that type of ask would be a significant impediment for interested parties, even with forthcoming salaries of $5MM (2020), $6.75MM (2021), $2.75MM (2022), a $6.75MM club option (2023) and a luxury tax hit of just $4.0625MM.

Chicago has already been tied to Arizona’s David Peralta, but there’s no guarantee that the Diamondbacks will even make him available due to the fact that he’s controlled through 2020. Beyond that, as ESPN’s Buster Olney briefly touched upon yesterday (subscription required), Peralta’s injury history — five absences in the past three and a half seasons, including two in 2019 — could create some hesitancy for a team eyeing stability. While Olney writes that the Cubs are “open-minded” about possibilities to upgrade their lineup, he also more broadly examines the fact that this year’s altered baseball and corresponding home run surge is making it difficult for teams to evaluate players.

That reality becomes all the more apparent when looking through some of the bats available to the Cubs and other clubs on this summer’s trade market. Sifting through our recent list of the market’s top trade candidates, names like Freddy Galvis, Eric Sogard and Kole Calhoun all stand out as hitters who could be moved amid career-best power performances. None of that bunch would be the “consistent” bat the Cubs are reported to be seeking, however, and the Cubs (like other teams) are surely wondering about the sustainability of their respective power surges.

Meanwhile, both Dee Gordon and Jonathan Villar are available, but both Gordon is enduring a poor season at the plate while Villar’s year-to-year performance is full of peaks and valleys. Corey Dickerson could be moved, but the Bucs would probably prefer not to trade him to a division rival. Perhaps Detroit’s Nicholas Castellanos would more aptly fit the “professional” hitter mold sought by the Cubs, but generally speaking, this year’s market isn’t exactly flooded with solid veteran bats — particularly not at positions the Cubs could easily accommodate.

Levine also lists a left-handed reliever as an item on the Cubs’ wishlist, though that’s been known to be the case for quite some time. Beyond his speculation on San Francisco’s Will Smith and Tony Watson, the market bears a few possibilities. The Royals’ Jake Diekman would certainly be a fit, as would the even more-affordable (financially speaking) Roenis Elias in Seattle, whose trade candidacy was recently explored here at MLBTR. Were the D-backs to end up as sellers and make Andrew Chafin available, he’d surely hold interest as well.

Payroll has been an ongoing issue for the Cubs, but any of Diekman ($2.75MM), Elias ($910K) or Chafin ($1.95MM) come with a more affordable rate than Smith ($4.25MM and the highest prospect price tag) or Watson ($10.5MM in 2019 if he reaches all of his incentives, which seems likely). Notably, the Cubs’ current luxury tax payments put them within about $4MM of the top penalty bracket. Crossing that threshold would mean paying a 75 percent tax on every additional dollar spent and also dropping their top pick in next year’s draft by 10 spots. The possible return of Zobrist could add some additional salary to the books, but the lack of certainty surrounding his status makes it difficult to forecast just how much salary he’d add onto the books.

Minor MLB Transactions: 7/15/19

By Steve Adams | July 15, 2019 at 7:04am CDT

We’ll kick off the week with a handful of minor moves from around the league…

The Mets have released right-handed reliever Arquimedes Caminero from their Triple-A affiliate, as first noted on the International League transactions log. The flamethrowing 32-year-old generated solid results with the Pirates in 2015-16 before signing on to pitch with Japan’s Yomiuri Giants in 2017-18. His return to the U.S. didn’t go smoothly, however, as he’s posted a 5.09 ERA in 17 2/3 with the Mets’ top affiliate in Syracuse. Caminero logged 15 strikeouts but also surrendered 10 free passes, continuing to display some of the control issues that plagued him during his last MLB run. In 155 big league frames, Caminero has a 3.83 ERA with 8.3 K/9, 4.0 BB/9 and a fastball that has averaged 97.6 mph.
Left-hander Zac Curtis has been released by the Rangers, according to the Pacific Coast League transactions log. Curtis, who just turned 27, went from the D-backs to the Mariner as a lower-profile piece in the Mitch Haniger/Jean Segura for Ketel Marte/Taijuan Walker swap. He’s bounced to the Phillies and the Rangers since that swap, appearing in the big leagues with each team along the way. Curtis re-signed with Texas after being outrighted this past winter, but he’s had a nightmare season in the hitter-friendly PCL. Despite racking up 40 strikeouts in 30 1/3 innings, Curtis has been hammered for an 8.90 ERA due to 25 free passes, four hit batters and a whopping 10 home runs allowed. Prior to this season, Curtis had a solid Triple-A track record, although he’d also issued 35 walks in 38 MLB innings, so the alarming control issues aren’t exactly an out-of-the-blue development.

Cardinals Move Michael Wacha Back To Bullpen

By Mark Polishuk | July 14, 2019 at 11:56pm CDT

The Cardinals have removed Michael Wacha from their rotation for the second time this season, Wacha told Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and other reporters. Daniel Ponce de Leon will now take Wacha’s spot in the rotation and start on Wednesday against the Pirates.

Wacha had been originally slated to start on Tuesday, then Wednesday as the Cards juggled their pitching staff coming out of the All-Star break. After back spasms forced Adam Wainwright out of a scheduled outing last Friday, Ponce de Leon pitched well in spot duty, earning him a longer look as a starter. Ponce de Leon now slots in alongside Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, and Dakota Hudson in the starting five.

This leaves Wacha as the odd man out, continuing what has been a frustrating season for the 28-year-old. Injuries have plagued his ability to become a consistently productive member of the St. Louis rotation in recent years, though while Wacha had a brief IL stint due to a knee problem in April, his biggest problems have been a huge spike in home runs allowed (2.1 HR/9) and a continued decline in fastball velocity. After averaging 95.1 mph on his heater in 2017, Wacha saw that total drop to 93.5 mph last season, and 92.6 mph this year. While Wacha has never been a big strikeout pitcher, his 7.31 K/9 is a career low, while his 4.6 BB/9 is a career high.

The result is a 5.54 ERA over 76 1/3 innings for Wacha this season. After a rough start on May 22, the right-hander was first shifted into the bullpen, where he made two relief appearances before returning as a starter on June 10. While Wacha has a 4.10 ERA over his last five starts, the inconsistency has continued, as he was hit hard in two outings while posting quality starts in the other three. Despite the role change, Cardinals manager Mike Shildt left the door open for Wacha to potentially start again, saying that the righty will work out of the pen “until another need arises.”

That said, Hummel raised the possibility that Wacha could be nearing the end of his time with the organization, and could be on the move before the July 31 trade deadline. Wacha doesn’t project as a long-term piece of the Cards’ future given that he’s a free agent after the season, and while his current struggles don’t make him a premium trade chip, St. Louis could add him into a larger package or simply swap him in a more low-profile trade. Rival teams could have interest in seeing if a simple change of scenery is required for a pitcher who has generally been a pretty solid rotation arm when healthy.

Working as a spot starter and reliever, Ponce de Leon has shown some intriguing stuff in his two MLB seasons, posting a 2.37 ERA, 9.6 K/9, and 2.88 K/BB rate over 64 2/3 career innings. Opposing batters have managed only a .243 xwOBA in 31 2/3 innings against Ponce de Leon this season. With the Cardinals fighting to stay close in both the uber-competitive NL Central race and the NL wild card hunt, the team decided it was better to go with a hot hand in Ponce de Leon than continue to give Wacha time to get on track.

Injury Notes: Ozuna, Gyorko, Winker, Longoria

By Mark Polishuk | July 14, 2019 at 11:16pm CDT

The latest on some injury situations from around baseball…

Marcell Ozuna isn’t sure when he’ll be able to return to the Cardinals lineup, MLB.com’s Anne Rogers writes, as the outfielder is still battling swelling in his right hand. As a result, Ozuna “hasn’t been able to test his grip strength much.” Ozuna suffered a fractured middle finger (and also jammed several other fingers) in late June, and there isn’t a clear idea as to when he’ll be ready to play again, though the team is hopeful the slugger will be back before the end of July. Ozuna had hit .259/.331/.515 with 20 homers over his first 326 plate appearances this season.
Also from Rogers’ piece, Cardinals manager Mike Shildt told reporters that Jedd Gyorko will be out of action until at least the middle of August, and potentially not until the start of September. While a back problem was the initial cause of Gyorko’s injured list that began on June 8, his return was delayed by a left calf strain, and then minor surgery on his right wrist. He also started the year on the IL due to a right calf strain suffered during Spring Training. With only 38 games and 62 plate appearances under his belt for the year, it’s beginning to look like a lost season for Gyorko in what might well be his final season in St. Louis. The Cardinals will surely take the $1MM buyout of their club option on Gyorko’s services for 2020 rather than pay him $13MM.
Reds outfielder Jesse Winker left today’s game in the middle of an at-bat due to injury. After swinging at a pitch, Winker told reporters (including MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon) that “my lower left back, side area tightened up. I was feeling some tightness in my right rib cage as well.” The problem first arose during his initial swing in the plate appearance, Winker added. He will undergo tests tomorrow to further access the damage, though if Winker has suffered an oblique injury, he would be facing an absence of several weeks. The 25-year-old has a .250/.328/.462 slash line and 13 home runs over 290 PA with Cincinnati this season, playing mostly against right-handed pitching (and with some drastic splits, including a .428 OPS in his only 39 PA against lefties). Should Winker miss time, a platoon of Derek Dietrich and Phillip Ervin in left field would seem to be the Reds’ likeliest response.
X-rays were negative on Evan Longoria’s left foot after the third baseman left after four innings of today’s Giants game due to plantar fasciitis. Longoria told Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle and other reporters that he has been dealing with the nagging problem since last season. The Giants are scheduled for a double-header against the Rockies on Monday and Longoria hopes to play in the second game, though he will get an MRI in the morning to access the damage. Plantar fasciitis could explain Longoria’s overall struggles since coming to San Francisco in the 2017-18 offseason, though he has quietly been roughly a league-average (102 OPS+, 101 wRC+) hitter this year in the wake of a recent hot streak. While a .241/.318/.446 slash line is a marked improvement over Longoria’s 2018 numbers, it still ranks as disappointing considering his track record and hefty contract.

AL West Notes: Astros, Bailey, Santana, Rangers

By Mark Polishuk | July 14, 2019 at 10:11pm CDT

Pitching is on the Astros’ mind as the AL West leaders approach the trade deadline, and both starters or relievers could be on the menu, GM Jeff Luhnow told The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan (subscription required). “It all depends on whether or not we’re able to acquire a starter and what that means for the rest of the rotation and maybe when [Brad] Peacock’s going to come back and be healthy and all of that,” Luhnow said. “So, there are a lot of variables. But we’ve never ruled out looking at relievers. In fact, several of the pitchers that we have on our wish list are relievers.”

As Luhnow mentioned, Peacock’s injury status adds another question mark to a rotation that was already in need of at least one more starter. While Houston has been linked to any number of big-name starters on the rumor mill, acquiring a reliever would add pen depth, and also perhaps allow the Astros to experiment with using an opener and bulk pitcher for one of the rotation spots, rather than a full-time starter. For the short term, Luhnow figured his team will have to get though something of a pitching crunch over the next few days, though “we talked to a couple clubs about some players who might fit in.”

MLBTR Chat Transcript: Mets, Bailey, Stroman, Twins, Yankees, Greinke

By Mark Polishuk | July 14, 2019 at 9:20pm CDT

Click here to read the transcript of the Sunday evening baseball chat, moderated by Mark Polishuk of the MLB Trade Rumors writing staff

Indians Notes: Bauer, Otero, Salazar

By Mark Polishuk | July 14, 2019 at 7:19pm CDT

Here’s the latest from Progressive Field…

While an extra year of control is generally considered as a boon to a player’s trade value, this may not necessarily be the case for Trevor Bauer, as Ken Rosenthal explains in his latest video report for FOX Sports. Bauer has one year of arbitration eligibility remaining in 2020, though Rosenthal notes that some potential trade partners could be wary of acquiring Bauer due to the high price tag he’ll earn next season. After defeating Cleveland in an arb hearing in February, Bauer collected a $13MM salary for 2019, and his aggressiveness in seeking out maximum value on an annual basis makes it likely he’ll go to yet another hearing for another big salary next winter. This could push Bauer’s potential earnings into the $20MM range, which is too costly for some clubs. There is some comparison between Bauer’s situation and David Price’s situation in 2014, Rosenthal notes, as the Rays’ ability to get a big trade haul for the ace lefty was somewhat limited by the big payday awaiting Price via arbitration in the 2014-15 offseason. Of course, with the Indians in the playoff hunt, it remains to be seen if the Tribe will trade Bauer whatsoever, or potentially wait until the offseason to further trades (though there’s already a lot of speculation about Bauer being on the move this July).
Dan Otero will begin a minor league rehab assignment, manager Terry Francona told MLB.com’s Mandy Bell and other reporters. The righty hasn’t pitched since May 30 due to right shoulder inflammation, and Otero’s time on the injured list was extended due to a setback in his recovery process. The ground-ball specialist had a 54.9% grounder rate, 3.33 K/BB rate, 3.8 K/9, and 4.56 ERA over his first 23 2/3 innings for Cleveland this season, with that ERA largely inflated by five earned runs over his last 2 2/3 frames of work prior to his IL stint.
Francona also discussed Danny Salazar’s rehab, as the right-hander continues to make his way back to a big league mound for the first time since October 2017. Salazar has been working as a starter during his rehab outings, though Francona said it’s too soon to say whether Salazar will continue in the rotation should he return to the Tribe’s MLB roster. “I don’t know how you can forecast a month down the road,” Francona said. “We might need three starters by then….There’s a lot of things we need to find out. Information that we don’t have yet.” Keeping Salazar on a regular five-day schedule as a starter could be beneficial to his bothersome shoulder, though a similar argument could be made that limited bullpen innings would be preferable to a starter’s workload.

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