Michael Wacha

Royals Sign Michael Wacha To Three-Year Deal

By Nick Deeds | November 3, 2024 at 11:03pm CDT

The Royals announced this afternoon that they’ve signed right-hander Michael Wacha to a three-year contract with a club option for the 2028 season. Wacha will earn $18MM in each of the 2025 and 2026 seasons and then at least $14MM in 2027, with another $4MM available in incentive bonuses. The $14MM club option for 2028 contains a $1MM buyout. All in all, the three-year pact will net Wacha at least $51MM in guaranteed money. Wacha is represented by CAA Sports.

Wacha signed a two-year, $32MM free agent deal with Kansas City last offseason that contained an opt-out clause after the first year. It was widely assumed that Wacha would opt out (leaving $16MM on the table) and return to free agency, though this new deal will give Wacha some security after bouncing around the league for the last several years.

The 33-year-old got his start with the Cardinals after being selected in the first round of the 2012 draft, but performed as little more than a back-end starter in seven seasons with St. Louis. After his first forays into free agency saw him post below-average numbers with the Rays and Mets, Wacha managed to turn things around in a big way after signing with the Red Sox on a one-year deal prior to the 2022 season.

In 23 starts with Boston, he posted an excellent 3.32 ERA in 127 1/3 innings of work. Wacha has kept that level of performance up throughout his early thirties, with a 3.30 ERA in 76 starts over the past three years with the Red Sox, Padres, and Royals. That 128 ERA+ is already quality mid-rotation production that most any club would happily take as a part of their starting five, but Wacha’s overall numbers looked even better with Kansas City than they had in his two prior successful campaigns.

Wacha largely maintained a more or less identical strikeout rate (21.2%) to the 21.3% figure he posted from 2022-23, and his walk rate ticked down slightly from 6.9% to 6.6%. Far more important than that, however, is Wacha’s improved ability to suppress hard contact. The right-hander’s hard-hit rate of 32.2% was the lowest Wacha had posted since 2017, while his barrel rate also improved slightly over his 2022-23 figure. Overall, Wacha’s quality of contact numbers were among the best of his career, including the lowest line drive rate he’s ever posted in a full season, plus improved groundball and infield fly ball rates relative to his 2022-23 seasons. Altogether, that improved batted ball data left the righty with not only a strong 3.35 ERA but also a 3.65 FIP that was his best in seven years.

Looking ahead to 2025 and beyond, the move to keep Wacha in the fold solidifies Kansas City’s rotation entering next season, keeping a front three of Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans, and Wacha together while Brady Singer, Alec Marsh, and Kyle Wright are among the club’s options for their final two starting jobs. With their rotation perhaps mostly set, the Royals will now surely look to upgrade an offense that generally struggled to produce in 2024 outside of superstar shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. In particular, the Royals figure to look for upgrades to their outfield mix coming off a season where the club’s 79 wRC+ in the outfield was bottom three in baseball ahead of only the White Sox and Pirates.

While Wacha’s fresh contract in Kansas City takes a quality mid-rotation arm off of the market, a number of interesting pitchers remain available this winter. Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Blake Snell, and Jack Flaherty stand at the top of the market, with mid-rotation options like Nathan Eovaldi, Sean Manaea, and Luis Severino among the players still available in a similar tier to Wacha for the many clubs who figure to be on the hunt for rotation help.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported Wacha’s new deal, with MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand adding the full contract breakdown.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Royals Notes: Lineup Needs, Outfield, Wacha, Frazier

By Mark Polishuk | October 14, 2024 at 11:48pm CDT

Royals brass held their end-of-season press conference today, with general manager J.J. Picollo and manager Matt Quatraro fielding questions from MLB.com’s Anne Rogers (two links) and other reporters about the club’s successful 2024 campaign and some of their plans for the coming offseason.

While Picollo described the Royals’ offense as “acceptable” overall, the team is looking for bookends around the powerful 2-3-4 lineup combination of Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, and Salvador Perez. The Royals relied heavily on that trio for most of their offense, and thus finding a more consistent leadoff hitter and no. 5 hitter are the first steps in increasing production.

Picollo noted that impending free agent Tommy Pham did a good job in stabilizing the leadoff spot after Pham was claimed off waivers from the Cardinals at the end of August. In general, however, “that leadoff spot, we were circulating guys all year long, trying to find the right person….Every lineup, and the better lineups that we faced, they’re deep,” Picollo said. “The more you can push guys down, the better our lineup will be. You start with a leadoff man, and then you try to find somebody in the middle of the lineup, as well. The deeper you get, the more explosive you can be as an offense.”

Kansas City batters had a collective .306 on-base percentage this season, ranking 19th of 30 teams. Witt’s .389 OBP did a lot of the heavy lifting on that cumulative total, as Yuli Gurriel (in only 65 plate appearances) ranked second on the team with a .338 OBP, followed by Perez at .330. Maikel Garcia had the majority of at-bats out of the leadoff spot and his strong third base defense kept him in the lineup, but he hit only .231/.281/.332 over 626 PA. Garcia’s 69 wRC+ was the lowest of any qualified hitter in baseball this season.

Despite Garcia’s lack of production, Picollo said Garcia and left fielder MJ Melendez (who also struggled) will be counted to improve at the plate as they head into their fourth Major League campaigns. However, Picollo singled out the outfield as a natural area where the Royals could add some power and more offense in general, as only the Pirates and White Sox got less production from their outfielders in 2024 than the 79 wRC+ posted by Kansas City’s outfield mix.

“Generally speaking, when you’re looking at left field, right field, that’s where you’re thinking about power guys,” Picollo said. “And we know this ballpark doesn’t lend itself to homers, but it does lend itself to slug. So we’ve got to be more productive there. And that’s where being optimistic about some of the guys that we have and looking at the experience they had, I think that’s fine.”

Right field is the most logical target area if Hunter Renfroe declines his $7.5MM player option for 2025, though Picollo said he hadn’t yet spoken to Renfroe about his upcoming decision. Renfroe can take a $1MM buyout and return to free agency, but it probably seems likelier than Renfroe will take the larger $7.5MM payday after a sub-replacement season. Renfroe had a -0.1 fWAR over 120 games with Kansas City, hitting .229/.297/.392 with 15 home runs, and he sandwiched a red-hot stretch in June and July between ice-cold performances in the first two and final two months of the regular season.

Kyle Isbel was also a below-average hitter but at least played some solid defense in center field, so he might have the most job security of all Royals outfielders heading into 2025. If K.C. did indeed pick up a new corner outfielder or two, Renfroe, Melendez, Dairon Blanco, and Nelson Velazquez could all be vying for part-time or bench duty, or the Royals could look to move any to create roster space.

On the pitching end, Michael Wacha will have to decide on either exercising or declining his $16MM player option for the 2025 season. Wacha’s excellent changeup powered his 3.35 ERA over 166 2/3 innings in his first season with the Royals, and induced a ton of soft contact while posting an above-average 6.6% walk rate. Though his lack of strikeouts and velocity will always limit his market to some extent, Wacha has now posted very solid results in each of the last three seasons, and should certainly find a multi-year pact again on the open market this year.

Even if the likelihood is that Wacha does pass on his option, Picollo said “there’s no question we’d like to have him back. How we go about that, I’m not sure just yet….He’s going to have opportunities with other clubs. So we’ll work on that.”

The Royals aim to add more pitching with or without Wacha still in the rotation, though obviously it will be a more glaring need if Wacha does head elsewhere. Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, and Brady Singer still combine for a nice top three and Alec Marsh earned himself a rotation job, so on paper Kansas City would have plenty of internal candidates to compete for just one open starting job. But as Picollo noted, “we were remarkably healthy this year,” so the club expects to need more pitching in the likely even that the Royals aren’t as lucky in avoiding the injury bug.

As to how much the Royals will have to spend for any upgrade, Picollo was naturally unspecific on the topic, but he felt owner John Sherman would have as much “flexibility” with the payroll as last winter. “I would suspect it would be very similar,” the GM said. “Not necessarily in, ’We’re going to spend $100 million,’ but more so his flexibility, him being open-minded to what our team’s needs are.”

RosterResource estimates that the Royals finished the year with a payroll of slightly more than $113.5MM, which represents the franchise’s biggest spend since its $122.2MM payroll on Opening Day 2018. An increase in attendance and two playoff games should boost revenue, but the Royals are also one of the teams whose broadcast deals with Diamond Sports Group will be severed as part of DSG’s ongoing bankruptcy proceedings.

It remains to be seen if the Royals could work out a new deal with DSG/Bally Sports for the 2025 season or if the team might seek out another broadcast partner, or pursue an agreement with Major League Baseball itself to broadcast games (as six other clubs have done). While obviously a lot of uncertainty exists here, it should be noted that the Royals’ previous deal with Bally was already up after the 2025 season, and the team still went ahead and had a relatively big spending splurge last winter even with the looming questions about its broadcast future.

In some injury updates, Hunter Harvey, James McArthur, and Chris Stratton should all be ready for the start of Spring Training after finishing the season on the injured list. Some health uncertainty awaits Adam Frazier, who will be undergoing some type of procedure on his right thumb this week.

Frazier had a minimal 10-day IL stint in late June/early July due to a sprain in that same thumb, and an injury could explain his rough hitting numbers, as the veteran batted only .202/.282/.294 in 294 PA. Kansas City is sure to decline its end of an $8.5MM mutual option on Frazier for 2025, and he’ll be bought out for $2.5MM. Between his down year and perhaps this surgery impacting his readiness, Frazier may have to settle for a minor league pact in free agency.

AL Central Notes: Crochet, Clevinger, Wacha, Lange

By Mark Polishuk | June 16, 2024 at 4:27pm CDT

Unsurprisingly, the White Sox have set an “exorbitant” asking price on Garrett Crochet in early trade talks, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes. As we already saw this past winter with the Dylan Cease trade negotiations and the eventual deal that sent Cease to the Padres, the Sox are naturally out for the biggest return possible when moving any of their most valuable trade chips. Crochet definitely fits that description, as he has broken out as a starting pitcher this year and is under arbitration control through the 2026 season.

Chicago isn’t likely to drop its demands much (or even at all) until closer to the deadline, and Crochet’s arbitration control also gives the Sox some extra leverage since the team doesn’t need to move the southpaw any time soon. If anything, Crochet having a full and healthy season as a starter might only increase what the White Sox might be looking for in trade talks during the offseason, when the Sox could speak to a wider array of potential suitors.

2024-25 Player Option/Opt-Out Preview: June Edition

By Anthony Franco | June 4, 2024 at 5:03pm CDT

We’re two months into the 2024 season, meaning more than a third of the schedule has already elapsed. While there are still plenty of games remaining, there are enough in the books to affect the market of the upcoming free agent class.

That’s particularly true for players who can opt out of their current contracts. Player ages are for the 2025 season.

Cody Bellinger (29): Can opt out of final two years and $52.5MM on three-year guarantee

Bellinger didn’t find the $200MM+ offer he was seeking last winter. As with a few other high-profile Boras Corporation clients (more on them in a minute), he pivoted to a short-term deal that allowed him to return to free agency next winter. Bellinger is arguably out to the best start of the bunch and seems on track to head back to the open market. He can earn a salary of $27.5MM in 2025 or take a $2.5MM buyout. If he decides to stay with the Cubs, he’ll then get to choose between a $25MM salary for 2026 or a $5MM buyout.

The lefty-hitting center fielder has a .265/.325/.459 line with eight homers over 203 plate appearances. His 15.8% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk percentage are on par with last year’s levels. Bellinger is again succeeding despite a below-average 33.8% hard contact rate. He’s not performing at quite the same pace he did in 2023, but the overall profile remains the same: good contact skills with the ability to play center field and mediocre batted ball metrics.

It could set up another winter where Bellinger’s exit velocities are the subject of plenty of debate. Perhaps his camp will need to lower their asking price in the early stages of his free agency, but the initial decision to opt out would be a straightforward one if he continues at this pace. He’d still be fairly young for a free agent at 29. Now two seasons removed from his dismal 2021-22 production, he also wouldn’t be saddled with a qualifying offer. Bellinger received the QO last winter, so he cannot receive another in his career.

Matt Chapman (32): Can opt out of final two years and $36MM on three-year guarantee

Chapman also settled for a short-term deal after a tough finish to the 2023 season. The defensive stalwart inked a three-year, $54MM contract with the Giants early in Spring Training. He has a $17MM player option for next season and an $18MM player option for the ’26 campaign if he doesn’t take the first opt-out. There’s a $1MM buyout on a mutual option for 2027 as well.

Over 60 games in San Francisco, he’s hitting .238/.307/.411 with eight home runs. That’s slightly better than average production in this season’s diminished run environment. By measure of wRC+, Chapman has been nine percentage points better than average at the plate — right in line with his usual level. He’s putting the ball in play more than he ever had before, but he’s sacrificing a few walks and some of his typically huge exit velocities to do so. While this would probably be enough for Chapman to head back to free agency in search of a three- or four-year deal, it’s not likely to result in the nine-figure contract that seemingly wasn’t on the table last offseason.

Gerrit Cole (34): Can opt out of final four years and $144MM on nine-year guarantee; team can override by exercising a $36MM option for 2029 if Cole declines his end

As recently as a few months ago, this decision looked preordained. Cole, coming off a Cy Young win and probably the best pitcher in baseball, would trigger the opt-out — only for the Yankees to override it by exercising a $36MM option for 2029. Boras suggested as much in a chat with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale in December.

His status has at least been somewhat complicated by elbow inflammation that arose during Spring Training. Cole has spent the entire season on the 60-day injured list; he’ll begin a minor league rehab stint tonight. If he looks like his typical self in the second half, this’ll probably be an easy call for Cole and the Yankees alike. If he struggles or, more worryingly, battles any other elbow concerns, he’d need to more seriously consider hanging onto the final four years and $144MM on his record free agent deal.

Nathan Eovaldi (35): Conditional $20MM option if Eovaldi reaches 156 innings pitched or based on Cy Young/All-Star results

Eovaldi’s $34MM deal with the Rangers contained a conditional option for 2025 that went into effect if he threw at least 300 innings in the first two seasons. He logged 144 frames a year ago, meaning he needed 156 this season. Eovaldi lost three weeks to a groin strain. He has made nine starts and thrown 50 innings so far, leaving him 106 shy of the vesting threshold. With another 18-20 turns through the rotation, it’s still doable, but any other injuries would essentially rule it out.

He could also kick in the option with a top-five finish in Cy Young balloting or a top seven Cy Young finish and an All-Star selection. While he’s pitching very well, the Cy Young provision only comes into play if he falls short of 156 innings. Placing that high without reaching 156 frames is a tall task.

Even if he were to vest the option, Eovaldi may well prefer to head back to free agency in search of a multi-year deal. While he’ll be 35, he still looks the part of an upper mid-rotation starter. Eovaldi has followed up a 3.63 ERA during his first season in Arlington with a 2.70 mark to this point. His fastball is sitting around 96 MPH and he has punched out more than 26% of opposing hitters with a ground-ball rate north of 50%. There’ll always be lingering durability questions given his age and two previous Tommy John surgeries, yet on talent, Eovaldi is one of the better pitchers who could be available.

Wilmer Flores (33): $3.5MM player option; team can override by exercising an $8.5MM option if Flores declines his end

In September 2022, the Giants signed Flores to a $16.5MM extension. He has a $3.5MM option for next season; if he declines, the Giants could keep him around by picking up an $8.5MM salary. Flores had arguably the best year of his career in 2023, drilling a personal-high 23 homers with a .284/.355/.509 slash line. The pendulum has swung in the opposite direction this season. He has only one longball with a .207/.276/.283 mark in 163 trips to the plate. Flores’ strikeout and walk profile haven’t changed, but his contact quality has plummeted.

A full season of replacement level production would make it likely that Flores takes the $3.5MM salary. There’s still time for him to find his power stroke, though.

Lucas Giolito (30): $19MM player option

Giolito is likely to take a $19MM salary from the Red Sox next year. The typically durable right-hander suffered a UCL injury during his second Spring Training appearance with Boston. He underwent an internal brace procedure and will miss the entire season. While he could be ready for the start of next season, he’d be hard-pressed to match a $19MM salary coming off the elbow procedure.

Opting in would trigger a conditional team/mutual option for the 2026 season, though. If Giolito doesn’t top 140 innings next year, the Sox would have a $14MM option (with a $1.5MM buyout) for ’26. Giolito would convert that to a $19MM mutual option by reaching the 140-inning plateau.

Mitch Haniger (34): Can opt out of final year and $15.5MM on three-year guarantee

The Giants signed Haniger to a three-year, $43.5MM free agent deal two winters back. That allowed him to opt out of the final season’s $15.5MM salary. Haniger’s time in the Bay Area was a disappointment. A broken arm limited him to 61 games and he didn’t hit well when healthy. San Francisco dealt him back to the Mariners last offseason in a change-of-scenery swap involving Robbie Ray and Anthony DeSclafani.

Haniger is the only member of that trio who has played in 2024. (Ray is still recovering from Tommy John surgery, while DeSclafani was flipped to the Twins and ultimately required elbow surgery himself.) The veteran outfielder hasn’t hit in his return to the Pacific Northwest. He carries a .221/.282/.349 line with six homers and a strikeout rate approaching 28% in 213 plate appearances. He’s trending towards sticking around.

Rhys Hoskins (32): Can opt out of final year and $18MM on two-year guarantee

Hoskins inked a two-year, $34MM deal with the Brewers after losing all of 2023 to an ACL tear. He landed in a favorable hitting environment in Milwaukee with a chance to prove he was back to his typical offensive form. Hoskins has done just that over the season’s first two months, connecting on 10 homers with a .243/.345/.486 line through 168 trips. He’s well on his way to opting out and would be one of the top offensive players in next year’s free agent class. The Brewers could make him a qualifying offer.

Clayton Kershaw (37): $5MM+ player option

The Dodgers brought back the future Hall of Famer, who is rehabbing from an offseason shoulder procedure. His deal contains a 2025 player option with a $5MM base value and significant escalators. It’d jump to $7MM if he makes six starts this season, $3MM apiece for each of his seventh through ninth start, and another $4MM if he starts 10 games. Performance bonuses could push his 2025 salary as high as $25MM.

It’s likely Kershaw will exercise the option regardless of where the specific value winds up. He has been throwing but has yet to begin a rehab stint. A return relatively early in the season’s second half — which would give him a chance to get to 10 starts — is still in play.

Sean Manaea (33): $13.5MM player option

Manaea opted out of a $12.5MM salary last winter and landed a two-year, $28MM pact from the Mets. He’s been a rare bright spot in a dismal season in Queens. Over 11 starts, the southpaw has tossed 57 innings of 3.63 ERA ball. He has a solid 23.2% strikeout rate behind an 11.2% swinging strike percentage. Manaea’s 9.9% walk rate is a personal high, but he’s looked the part of a decent mid-rotation starter.

If he continues at this pace, he’d likely forego next year’s $13.5MM salary and hit the market for a third straight winter. Manaea will be heading into his age-33 campaign and could look for a two- or three-year pact (potentially the final multi-year deal of his career). Even if wouldn’t dramatically improve on his annual salary, pitchers like Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha have gotten multi-year deals in their mid-30s for mid-rotation work.

Nick Martinez (34): $12MM player option

Cincinnati guaranteed Martinez $26MM over two seasons — $14MM this year with a $12MM option for 2025. That investment made it appear the Reds would give him an extended look in the rotation. They’ve instead kept him in the swing role which he played for most of his time with the Padres. Martinez has started five of 13 games, posting a 4.20 ERA across 49 1/3 innings. He has a microscopic 0.76 ERA from the bullpen but has been rocked for a 7.36 mark out of the rotation.

On the surface, Martinez’s production doesn’t seem all that eye-catching. It’s not too dissimilar to Manaea’s work in a swing role with the Giants in 2023, though. Manaea turned in a 4.44 ERA while starting 10 of 37 games with San Francisco. He declined a $12.5MM player option and found a multi-year deal with a team willing to give him a rotation spot. Martinez (like Manaea, a Boras Corp. client) has opted out of multi-year commitments from San Diego in each of the last two offseasons. He’d probably do the same next winter if his performance doesn’t dramatically turn.

Jordan Montgomery (32): Conditional $20MM option if Montgomery reaches 10 starts

Montgomery agreed to terms with the Diamondbacks just days before the start of the regular season. He landed a $25MM salary for this year and a conditional player option for 2025. The condition — making 10 MLB starts — would only not come into play if the southpaw suffered a significant injury. Montgomery is already two starts away from vesting the option. Its value would escalate to $25MM if he gets to 23 starts.

The 31-year-old certainly anticipated declining that option and trying his hand again in free agency. He’s been hit hard through his first eight starts in the desert, though. Montgomery has been tagged for a 5.48 earned run average across 44 1/3 innings. While he’s still showing good control, his strikeout rate has plummeted seven points to a poor 14.4% rate. His four-seam and sinker are each averaging less than 92 MPH after sitting around 93.5 MPH last season. Perhaps Montgomery is still shaking off rust related to his delayed start to the year, yet his early performance could make the option decision tougher than he expected.

Emilio Pagán (34): $8MM player option ($250K buyout)

The Reds signed Pagán to a two-year, $16MM contract with the ability to collect a $250K buyout in lieu of an $8MM salary next season. It was an odd fit considering Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly home park and Pagán’s longstanding trouble with the longball. His first 21 appearances as a Red have been fine. He owns a 4.19 ERA across 19 1/3 innings. The righty has a customarily strong 30.5% strikeout rate against an 8.5% walk percentage. He has surrendered four homers.

Pagán, who is currently on the 15-day injured list with triceps tightness, has performed about as the Reds probably anticipated. This one can still go either way, but an $8MM salary for his age-34 season feels about right for his market value.

Wandy Peralta (33): Can opt out of final three years and $12.65MM on four-year guarantee

The Padres surprisingly signed Peralta to a four-year deal as a means of reducing the contract’s luxury tax hit. The veteran southpaw has been effective, turning in a 2.66 ERA across 23 2/3 innings. Peralta doesn’t miss many bats, but he’s an excellent ground-ball specialist (55.6% this season, 53.1% for his career). Even though he’s pitching well, it’d be somewhat surprising to see him walk away from another three years and almost $13MM covering his age 33-35 seasons.

Robbie Ray (33): Can opt out of final two years and $50MM on five-year guarantee

Ray’s five-year, $115MM contract with the Mariners allowed him to bypass the final two seasons valued at $25MM annually. Ray had a solid, if not overwhelming, first season in Seattle. His elbow gave out after one start in year two. Ray underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2023. The Mariners offloaded the final three years of his contract in the Haniger trade with the Giants.

The former AL Cy Young winner is targeting a return around the All-Star Break. He has been throwing from a mound and could head on a rehab stint in the coming days. Odds are against an opt-out right now, but a dominant second half could change the calculus.

Hunter Renfroe (33): $7.5MM player option ($1MM buyout)

The Royals signed Renfroe to a surprisingly strong two-year, $13MM deal. The righty-hitting outfielder was coming off a middling .233/.297/.416 showing between the Angels and Reds a year ago. He has had a very rough start to his Kansas City tenure, hitting .178/.256/.309 with only four homers in 168 plate appearances. It’d take a major reversal in the season’s final few months for him to forego a $7.5MM salary.

Blake Snell (32): $30MM player option

The Giants jumped in late on Chapman and even later to grab the defending NL Cy Young winner. Snell signed a two-year, $62MM guarantee two weeks before Opening Day. The hope for everyone involved was that he’d collect the first $32MM and pitch well enough to pass on next season’s $30MM option.

Snell’s first two months in the Bay Area couldn’t have gone much worse. He has battled groin issues throughout the season. Snell lost around a month with an adductor (groin) strain between April and May. He went back on the 15-day IL last night. He has taken the ball six times and been rocked for a 9.51 ERA over 23 2/3 innings. Needless to say, he’ll need a much better final four months to go back to free agency.

Chris Stratton (34): $4.5MM player option ($500K buyout)

The Renfroe deal wasn’t the only surprising two-year pact with an opt-out that the Royals signed last winter. They signed Stratton, a generally solid middle reliever, to an $8MM deal containing a $4.5MM option for next season. The right-hander was coming off a 3.92 ERA performance across 82 2/3 innings out of the St. Louis and Texas bullpens.

He hasn’t been as effective for the Royals, allowing 5.76 earned runs per nine through 25 frames. Stratton’s strikeout rate is down a few points to 21.7%, but the much bigger issue is an uncharacteristic inability to find the zone. He has walked almost 16% of batters faced, more than doubling last season’s rate.

Justin Verlander (42): Conditional $35MM option if Verlander reaches 140 innings pitched

Verlander would unlock a $35MM player option if he throws 140 innings this season. While he was delayed to start the year by shoulder discomfort, he has logged 52 innings in nine starts since his return. Barring another injury, he’ll throw more than 88 innings over the season’s final four months.

At 41, Verlander is still pitching well — a 3.63 ERA with a 22.2% strikeout rate — but he’s not operating at Cy Young form. If he continues at this pace all season, matching a $35MM salary on the open market is unlikely. Verlander seems comfortable in Houston and would probably prefer to stick with the Astros, though that may depend on whether the team plays better before the deadline. Verlander approved a trade from the Mets back to Houston last summer when it became clear that New York wasn’t going to be a legitimate World Series contender during his contract. At 27-34, the Astros need to turn things around quickly to put themselves in position for an eighth straight trip to the ALCS.

Michael Wacha (33): $16MM player option

Wacha landed in Kansas City on a two-year commitment with matching $16MM salaries and the opportunity to head back to free agency after year one. The veteran righty is pitching well enough to make that a consideration. He owns a 4.24 ERA across 12 starts and 68 innings. That’s a run higher than his ERA of the past two seasons, but the general profile remains the same.

He throws strikes with slightly below-average whiff rates. He has thrown between 120-140 innings in each of the last three seasons and looks on his way to matching or surpassing that in 2024. Opting out in search of another two-year deal in the $30MM range is plausible.

Royals Place Michael Wacha On 15-Day Injured List

By Nick Deeds | June 2, 2024 at 2:22pm CDT

The Royals placed right-hander Michael Wacha on the 15-day injured list earlier today due to what manager Matt Quatraro described to reporters (including MLB.com’s Anne Rogers) as a “small, non-displaced” fracture in his left foot. Kansas City recalled left-hander Daniel Lynch IV to take Wacha’s place both on the active roster and in the starting rotation. A timetable for Wacha’s return to action was not immediately available, as Quatraro indicated that it will primarily depend on when the soreness if Wacha’s foot subsides. Fortunately, Wacha will be able to stay somewhat active while he nurses his ailing foot, as Rogers adds that Wacha will play catch on his knee in order to keep his arm warmed up.

It’s an unfortunate turn of events for the Royals, as the 32-year-old veteran has mostly looked good since signing with the club on a two-year, $32MM deal with the club back in December. While Wacha’s 4.24 ERA through 12 starts is actually slightly below the league average (97 ERA+), he’s posted solid peripheral numbers and been plagued by a below average strand rate of just 68.7%. While Wacha’s 19.8% strikeout rate is slightly down from his solid season with the Padres last year, he’s walked just 7.1% of batters faced while limiting hard contact very effectively. Opposing hitters have barreled up just 4.8% of their batted balls against Wacha, and his 24.9% hard contact rate is by far the lowest of his career. All that has left Wacha with not only a solid 3.62 FIP but also a 3.54 xERA.

Fortunately for the Royals, they’ve received more than strong enough production from the rest of their rotation to manage without Wacha while he’s unavailable. The club’s starters have collectively posted a 3.13 ERA entering play today, good for third in the majors behind only the Yankees and Phillies. Veteran right-hander Seth Lugo has been a revelation for the club at the front of the rotation in his first year with the club, with an incredible 1.72 ERA and a 3.22 FIP in 78 1/3 innings of work. Meanwhile, lefty Cole Ragans has continued to build on his strong debut with the Royals last year in 2024 as the club’s #2 starter while right-hander Brady Singer has rebounded to the form he flashed in 2022 as the staff ace. Rounding out the club’s rotation mix is Alec Marsh, who has posted solid mid-to-back of the rotation results on par with those of Wacha.

Joining that quartet in Wacha’s place is Lynch, who the club selected 34th overall in the 2018 draft. Lynch was once a consensus top-30 prospect in the entire sport but has generally struggled in parts of three seasons at the big league level, with a career 5.18 ERA and 4.79 FIP in 51 starts entering this year. He’s made just three appearances at the big league level for the Royals this season, posting a 1.50 ERA in 12 innings of work. Those strong results have come in spite of shaky peripherals; he’s struck out just 17.4% of batters faced in the majors this year while benefiting from a microscopic .152 BABIP. Nonetheless, he’ll attempt to keep that production going in the fifth starter spot for a Royals club that has enjoyed a surprisingly excellent season to this point as they’ve gone 35-25 to place themselves firmly in the second of three AL Wild Card spots, five games back of the Guardians for the AL Central lead.

Orioles Acquire Jonathan Heasley From Royals

By Darragh McDonald | December 18, 2023 at 5:50pm CDT

The Orioles have acquired right-hander Jonathan Heasley from the Royals in exchange for minor league right-hander Cesar Espinal, per announcements from both clubs. This appears to be the corresponding move for right-hander Michael Wacha, whose deal with the Royals was officially announced by that club earlier today. Jeff Passan of ESPN relayed the deal prior to the official announcements. Baltimore’s 40-man count is now at 38.

Heasley, 27 in January, was a 13th-round pick of the Royals in 2018 but seemed to increase his stock with a strong 2021 campaign. That year, he tossed 105 1/3 innings in Double-A with a 3.33 earned run average, striking out 27.7% of batters faced while issuing walks at just a 7.9% clip. He was added to the Kansas City roster in mid-September and went into 2022 with a bit of helium. FanGraphs and Baseball America each ranked him the club’s #13 prospect for 2022.

He hasn’t found much success since then, however, serving as a frequently-optioned depth arm. In his 133 2/3 major league innings to this point, he has a 5.45 ERA and 14.5% strikeout rate. In 134 Triple-A innings over the past two years, he has a 6.11 ERA, though his 22.6% strikeout rate at that level is more encouraging. He still has an option so the O’s can continue to develop him without having to give Heasley a spot on the active roster. He has worked both as a starter and reliever in recent years, though it’s unclear if the O’s have a particular role in mind for him.

Espinal, 18, is not a prospect of note as of right now. He has 53 2/3 innings of minor league experience thus far, pitching in the Dominican Summer League in the past two years. He has a 4.02 ERA in that time, along with a 21.9% strikeout rate and 11% walk rate.

Royals Sign Michael Wacha

By Steve Adams | December 18, 2023 at 4:45pm CDT

December 18: The Royals have now officially announced the deal.

December 15: The Royals’ active offseason is continuing, as Kansas City has agreed to terms with free agent righty Michael Wacha, per a report from Robert Murray of FanSided. It’s a two-year, $32MM contract, ESPN’s Jeff Passan adds. The second season is a player option, so Wacha will have the opportunity to opt back into free agency next winter. The contract pays the CAA client an even $16MM in each season, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, and Anne Rogers of MLB.com tweets that Wacha can earn an additional $500K via incentives in each season of the deal.

It’s the second notable free-agent pickup of the day for the Royals, who also agreed to a two-year $13MM deal with Hunter Renfroe earlier this morning. Kansas City has also added righty Seth Lugo on a three-year, $45MM pact that contains an opt-out after the second season. Wacha and Lugo, who were teammates with the Padres in 2023, will join a Royals rotation that includes Cole Ragans, Brady Singer and Jordan Lyles. Depth options include Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic (recovering from Tommy John surgery), Max Castillo, Alec Marsh and Jonathan Heasley, among others.

Wacha’s two-year, $32MM deal matches the exact terms of a two-year club option that the Padres declined earlier this offseason. The inclusion of an opt-out provision and some modest incentives makes this a stronger deal for the righty, however. Kansas City will be Wacha’s sixth team in six years, as his trips to free agency have routinely resulted in either a one-year pact (Mets, Rays, Red Sox) or a multi-year deal with options and/or opt-out opportunities (Padres).

In those two seasons, Wacha has changed up his pitch selection, reducing his reliance on a four-seamer while increasing the usage rates on his sinker and changeup. He threw both pitches at a career-high rate in 2022 and then set a new career-high in usage again in 2023. While the more frequent sinker usage hasn’t shown up in Wacha’s ground-ball rates, he’s posted improved batted-ball metrics; last year’s 88.1 mph average exit velocity and 35.4% hard-hit rate were both lower than the league averages of 89 mph and 39.2%, respectively. That’s helped Wacha to offset his slightly below-average strikeout rate.

The number of innings that the Royals can expect from Wacha is perhaps the biggest question mark surrounding him. Wacha has been placed on the injured list nine times in his big league career, with five of those IL placements stemming from shoulder troubles (including a six-week absence in the 2023 season). Wacha has also had IL stints for oblique, hamstring, knee and intercostal strains. While the shoulder is an obvious concern, Wacha did manage a solid 3.88 ERA in 48 2/3 innings after returning from this past season’s shoulder issue. He closed out the year with a pair of particularly impressive outings, tossing consecutive seven-inning gems (two total runs allowed on nine hits and two walks with 13 strikeouts).

With Wacha, Renfroe, Lugo, Will Smith, Chris Stratton and Garrett Hampson all signing major league deals in Kansas City this month, the Royals have committed $105MM in total free-agent dollars in a span of just over two weeks. It’s unlikely all of those dollars will end up being paid out, as each of Wacha, Renfroe, Stratton and Lugo received player options/opt-outs within their respective contracts. Still, it’s a hefty slate of investments by Kansas City’s standards — one that’s added an additional $47MM in payroll to the team’s 2024 roster (a net $45.75MM, when factoring in that Taylor Clarke and his $1.25MM salary were traded to the Brewers to make roster space for Lugo).

The relatively heavy investment in free-agent arms represents something of an acknowledgement from the Kansas City front office that its previous efforts to rebuild a homegrown rotation with a heavy focus on college arms in the draft simply hasn’t panned out. Singer, Lynch, Bubic, Marsh, Jackson Kowar and Asa Lacy were at one point focal components of the Royals’ hopes for the future, but only Singer remains locked into the rotation but is in need of a bounceback campaign after he was unable to carry his 2022 breakout into the 2023 season. Kowar was traded to the Braves for injured starter Kyle Wright (who’ll miss all of 2024). Lacy has yet to reach the Majors. Lynch and Marsh haven’t established themselves. Bubic showed some promise before tearing his left ulnar collateral ligament and undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Kansas City’s new-look rotation should represent a massive improvement over last year’s group, which pitched to a combined 5.12 ERA, ranking 27th in the big leagues. Gone from that mix are Brad Keller, Ryan Yarbrough and (at least for now) Zack Greinke. Other key names in 2023, Lynch most prominently, have been pushed down the depth chart. It’s not yet clear what lies ahead for the Royals and Greinke. The future Hall of Famer spent the past two seasons back with his original organization and at least ostensibly seemed poised to close out his career there. It’s possible the two parties still come to terms on another one-year pact, as Greinke is preparing to pitch in 2024, but that would likely push Lyles to the bullpen (or perhaps prompt the Royals to explore a potential trade of the veteran innings eater).

Royals Have Had Discussions With Michael Wacha, Jack Flaherty

By Steve Adams | December 11, 2023 at 12:57pm CDT

The Royals’ wide-ranging search for rotation help has led to discussions with free agents Michael Wacha and Jack Flaherty, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Kansas City has also been linked to free agents Marcus Stroman, Lucas Giolito and Seth Lugo within the past week.

Royals general manager J.J. Picollo has said on multiple occasions this winter that he’s hoping to bolster his starting rotation, and he recently acknowledged that his club has at least $30MM to spend this offseason. The Royals aren’t likely to be serious players for top-of-the-market arms like Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Blake Snell, but the list of names to which they’ve already been tied suggests they’re quite active in the second and third tiers of the market for starting pitching help.

Both Wacha and Flaherty figure to be in the Royals’ price range, landing annual values that fall well shy of that rough $30MM annual rate. Wacha’s two-year, $32MM club option was bought out by the Padres at season’s end, but after posting consecutive seasons with 125-plus innings and ERAs of 3.32 and 3.22, he has a case for a three-year pact — albeit perhaps at a lesser rate than the $16MM which San Diego declined to pay (or pick up and attempt to trade him at).

Over the past two seasons, between the Red Sox and Padres, Wacha has posted a combined 3.27 ERA with a 21.3% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate and 37.7% ground-ball rate. Despite being more of a fly-ball pitcher, he’s allowed a manageable 1.14 homers per nine frames. His 88.1 mph average exit velocity and 35.4% hard-hit rate are both a bit lower than this past season’s leaguewide averages (89 mph, 39.2%), which helps to mitigate the impact of a below-average strikeout rate. Wacha has dramatically reduced his reliance on a four-seam fastball over the past two seasons. He’s steadily increased his usage of a sinker and changeup in that time, posting new career-high usage rates for each pitch in both 2022 and 2023.

The broader question with Wacha is one of durability. He’s been placed on the injured list nine times in his MLB career — five of them due to right shoulder issues. Wacha landed on the IL with a stress reaction in his shoulder back in 2014, and he’s since had shoulder-related IL trips in 2016, 2020, 2022 and 2023. He’s also missed time with one-off oblique, hamstring, knee and intercostal injuries. Most recently, he missed six weeks of the 2023 summer with shoulder inflammation. However, he also posted a 3.88 ERA in 48 2/3 innings after returning and closed out the year with consecutive seven-inning gems (two total runs allowed on nine hits and two walks with 13 strikeouts).

Turning to Wacha’s former Cardinals teammate, Flaherty isn’t that far removed from looking the part of a blossoming ace. A first-round pick and top prospect before his big league debut, the right-hander logged a 3.34 ERA through 151 innings during his first full MLB campaign back in 2018. He was even better in 2019, tossing a career-best 196 1/3 innings with a brilliant 2.75 earned run average, excellent 29.9% strikeout rate and lower-than-average 7.1% walk rate. Unfortunately, he battled shoulder troubles of his own while pitching just 154 1/3 innings combined from 2020-2022.

This past season, Flaherty split the year between the Cardinals and Orioles, enjoying his healthiest year since 2019 but also displaying rather pedestrian results. Flaherty’s 4.99 ERA stands as an obvious eyesore, and his 22.8% strikeout rate was more or less in line with the league average. His 10.6% walk rate was a good bit worse than average. His fastball, which averaged 94.5 mph in that brilliant 2019 season, sat at 93.2 mph in 2023.

It obviously wasn’t Flaherty’s best work, but even with the downturn in results and durability concerns, there’s reason to believe he could yet command a multi-year deal. Flaherty only turned 28 in October, and a team might view him as a prime-aged rebound candidate who could pitch near the top of a rotation in a best-case scenario. He’d be an upside play based more on his prior heights than his 2023 output, but even if things don’t pan out, a two- or three-year deal likely wouldn’t break the bank.

Recent three-year deals for pitchers in this tier have generally landed around $12-13MM per season (e.g. Anthony DeSclafani, Yusei Kikuchi, Zach Eflin). It’s similarly feasible that Flaherty might just prefer a one-year deal that’d allow him to return to market next winter — although he could also get there via an opt-out. There are various contractual forms he can and likely is considering, but he’s unlikely to be prohibitively expensive in any of those scenarios, given Picollo’s prior comments regarding the team’s payroll flexibility.

Kansas City’s rotation currently projects to include Cole Ragans, Brady Singer and veteran innings eater Jordan Lyles. Candidates for the final two spots include Daniel Lynch, Jonathan Heasley, Angel Zerpa, Alec Marsh and Max Castillo, among others, but the Royals are hoping to add at least one, if not two veteran arms to supplement the bunch.

Michael Wacha Opts Out; Padres Give Qualifying Offers to Blake Snell, Josh Hader

By Darragh McDonald | November 6, 2023 at 3:15pm CDT

The Padres have extended qualifying offers to free agent lefties Blake Snell and Josh Hader, reports AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. The club also announced a batch of transactions, which includes each of Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo and Nick Martinez electing free agency. Meanwhile, Matt Carpenter exercised his player option to stick with the club. Additionally, the club outrighted right-hander Nick Hernandez and claimed right-hander Jeremiah Estrada off waivers from the Cubs.

The decisions of Lugo and Martinez were previously reported, as was the news on Carpenter. As for Wacha, it was reported on the weekend that the club was declining a two-year option to retain him for 2024-25. Wacha then had the opportunity to trigger a $6.5MM player option for 2024 but has now turned that down.

Wacha signed a four-year deal with the Padres, though one with a convoluted structure. The club would first have to decide on a two-year, $32MM option for the 2024-25 seasons, which they declined. Wacha then had three straight player options which could have paid him $6.5MM in 2024 and then $6MM in the following two seasons. But he has now turned that down, leaving three years and $18.5MM on the table in search of a new deal.

Although he was largely injured and/or ineffective for much of the 2018 to 2021 period, Wacha has now had two straight solid seasons. He posted a 3.32 ERA with the Red Sox in 2022 and a 3.22 mark in his first season in San Diego. Injuries still limited his total volume of work, as he logged 127 1/3 innings for the Sox and 134 1/3 for the Friars, but the combination of workload and effectiveness was nonetheless the best form he’s showed in years.

He’ll now head back to free agency in search of his next deal. The starting pitching market is headlined by guys like Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery but Wacha will be somewhere in the tie of solid mid-rotation or back-end guys, alongside Lugo, Jack Flaherty and Mike Clevinger.

The fact that Snell and Hader received $20.325MM qualifying offers is no surprise. The two of them are going to be some of the top available free agents this winter, making them a lock to reject them, something recently highlighted by MLBTR. Snell posted a 2.25 earned run average in 2023 and could receive the second Cy Young Award of his career in the coming days. Hader has long been one of the most dominant relievers in the league and had a 1.28 ERA in the season that just ended. Both should be able to receive nine-figure contracts even with a QO attached.

Any impending free agent can receive a qualifying offer as long as they spent the entire season with just one club and haven’t received a QO before. If Hader and/or Snell sign with other clubs after rejecting the QO, the Padres will receive draft pick compensation.

The departures of Wacha, Snell, Lugo and Martinez will leave the Padres fairly short-handed in their rotation. They still have Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove but they are followed on the depth chart by unproven options like Matt Waldron, Jay Groome, Adrián Morejón and Pedro Avila. They will presumably be looking to add to that group but will have to do so while juggling significant financial concerns.

Hernandez, 29 next month, was just added to the roster in September. He made two appearances, allowing four earned runs in three innings, giving him a career ERA of 12.00 in that tiny sample. He threw 61 innings in the minors in 2023, split between Double-A and Triple-A, with a 3.84 ERA, 32.7% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate. Any of the 29 other clubs could have added him to their roster today but decided to pass.

Estrada, 25, made 17 appearances for the Cubs over the past two seasons with a 5.51 ERA in that time. His 25.9% strikeout rate is a bit above average but his 18.5% walk rate is concerning. That’s generally been a pattern in the minor leagues as well, with Estrada striking out 31.2% of hitters at Triple-A in 2023 but walking 18.8%. He is still optionable next year, so the Padres will add some pitching depth that comes with roster flexibility, while they will presumably try to help Estrada improve his control going forward.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Padres Decline Two-Year Club Option On Michael Wacha

By Nick Deeds | November 4, 2023 at 8:57pm CDT

The Padres have declined their two-year, $32MM club option on the services of right-hander Michael Wacha for the 2024 and 2025 campaigns, per Dennis Lin of The Athletic. Wacha will now have the opportunity to decide between exercising a $6.5MM player option for the 2024 season or hitting the open market, with Lin noting that Wacha is expected to become a free agent.

Wacha first signed with the Padres this past offseason on a four-year, $26MM guarantee, though it now appears likely that deal will wind up being for just one year and $7.5MM. At the time, the 32-year-old righty was coming off his best season in several years after posting a 3.32 ERA and 4.14 FIP across 23 starts with the Red Sox in 2022. Though at the time it was easy to wonder if Wacha would regress back to the 4.62 ERA he had posted from 2016-2021, he managed to build upon his 2022 with an even stronger 2023 season. In 24 starts (134 1/3 innings), Wacha posted a 3.22 ERA that was 27% better than league average by ERA+ with a 3.89 FIP and a 22.4% strikeout rate.

Given that improvement, it’s something of a surprise that the club would decline to retain Wacha on what would have effectively been a two-year, $32MM pact, particularly with both Seth Lugo and Nick Martinez now slated to join Blake Snell in departing San Diego for the open market. Indeed, a poll of MLBTR readers revealed that nearly 44% of respondents expected the Padres to pick up Wacha’s options, a total that edges out the 39% of respondents who suggested that Wacha would return to the open market this offseason.

Of course, it’s necessary to consider the financial component of the move. After all, the Padres seem to be facing budgetary issues this offseason that could require them to pare payroll down to around $200MM. The departures of Lugo and Martinez, along with the club’s decision to decline Wacha’s option, have cut the club’s payroll for 2024 to just over $197MM, per RosterResource. Should Wacha decline his option as expected, that would drop the figure to just under $191MM.

That could allow the club to avoid more drastic changes to cut payroll, such as a possible trade of star left fielder Juan Soto. Of course, a payroll of $200MM would allow them just $9MM of room in the budget to replace three of the club’s regular rotation members and their top depth option for the starting staff, to say nothing of the loss of closer Josh Hader or potential upgrades to the lineup. If the Padres hope to patch the holes in their pitching staff and fine-tune their position player group, it seems reasonable to expect additional moves to trim the club’s payroll.

As for Wacha, he appears poised to join a free agent market that’s particular deep in starting pitching options. While he won’t compete at the top of the market alongside the likes of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Snell, and Aaron Nola, Wacha will add another interesting mid-rotation option to a group that already includes the likes of Lugo, James Paxton, Marcus Stroman, Lucas Giolito and Eduardo Rodriguez in the event that he decides to decline his player option and test the open market.

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