The White Sox are “currently planning to keep” closer Alex Colome rather than shipping him out of town today, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). Colome checked in at the #26 spot on MLBTR’s recent ranking of the top 75 trade candidates in baseball.
Colome has all the outward signs of a top trade target. The 30-year-old carries a 2.21 ERA and has racked up 21 saves in his 40 2/3 frames on the season, and still possesses mid-nineties heat.
Otherwise, however, he hasn’t been very impressive in 2019. Colome’s combination of 7.1 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9 and a 44.8% groundball rate looks more like that of a common middle-reliever. He surely deserves some credit for holding opponents to an anemic .147 batting average on balls in play, but Statcast figures suggest quite the opposite. Colome carries a .324 xwOBA based upon the quality of contact against him, well north of the .223 wOBA that batters have produced.
As ever, contract rights matter quite a bit as well. Colome is earning $7.325MM this year with one more arbitration season yet to come. That’s an appealing situation for a lock-down closer, but seems quite pricey if that’s not how you value Colome. Indeed, the low ERA and lofty save totals he’s accruing this year also promise to raise his salary quite a bit in 2020.
In the aggregate, it’s not especially surprising to hear that interest isn’t building to a crescendo on deadline day. True, the White Sox’ postseason hopes are dim. And Nightengale says that the South Siders have fielded interest from “plenty of teams.” But the club wants a reliable ninth-inning arm for 2020 and already paid a fairly heavy price for Colome. (In addition to the salary, the cheap and controllable Omar Narvaez is raking in Seattle.) Rather than swinging a trade and going out to find a replacement this fall, the Chicago organization will seemingly hang tight and keep the known quantity.
I just don’t see them competing next year. I think they’ll be a decent team, but I see the Indians and Twins being ahead of them in the division, and 2 Al East teams, and a Al West team ahead of them in the wild card.
K.
Competing next year?? LOL!!
They’ll be lucky to be competitive by 2024. Reinsdorf is not going to overpay, and no quality free agent would want to be part of this franchise.
The white Sox won’t need to overpay as they have prospects at or near the majors at every position. Their window opens for real in 2021. All their pitchers will be back from TJ by then.
And some will be becoming free agents. Reinsdorf won’t pay to keep them, and they’ll be just high enough in the standings where their draft position won’t allow them to grab the obvious.
The White Sox just signed Eloy Jimenez to $48M/6, and their total active payroll is a paltry $61M. Please explain to me why the Sox That means they have more to spend. They offered $30MM to Machado recently. So please, wax poetic on why they wouldn’t spend money to retain star players. Otherwise you’re just some numbskull cubs troll.
They were never gonna get Machado or Harper. Why would 2 premier players want to lose at 40% of their contract
The White Sox staying away from Harper and Colome is probably a smart long term move but Harper would have been the better move for the White Sox. Having Colome for one more year is not a bad thing with the White Sox waiting to see if Burdi can bounce back from current injury.
Still shouldn’t give Colome away for nothing. I’m okay with Hahn kicking the tires on this one. Whether it was his peripheral stats or his remaining salary that made teams reluctant to pony up a descent prospect, it’s their loss in my opinion. Colome throws hard, he throws strikes and hitters don’t square his pitches up. I hope the Sox resign him if he keeps this up next year (or anything close to his solid career numbers, since everyone thinks a regression is so inevitable).
What the hell are they doing? Can they not get some decent offer from the NL East? You would think that out of three teams in need, all at least with a good shot to make the postseason, one would make a good offer.
Braves and Phillies already made some moves and nationals are looking for cheaper talent
What the hell are they doing? Can they not get some decent offer from the NL East? You would think that out of three teams in need, all at least with a good shot to make the postseason, one would make a reasonable offer. And, White Sox are in no way competing next year or the year after that.
Yea, a little surprised they’d hold him with how much interest contenders have for premium bullpen upgrades. He’s not signed past next year, and if the Sox are competitive next year, they should have the money to sign 1 or 2 guys in FA.
Thanks for your valued insight
Fits their window for contention perfectly lol
Sox bluffing.
Sox traded Nate Jones to Texas.
Probably keeping Colome now.
Vazquez not available either. Maybe.
Teams need to pay up if they want either of these closers.
Hope you’re not equating Colome to Vazquez. Vazquez is infinitely more valuable.
Colome has poor peripherals and is expensive compared to similar pitchers on the market. The Sox would likely have to eat some money and only get back a couple of guys in the 15-30 part of an average farm. It’s makes sense to just keep him for that.
Of course they are. The FO is stupid and the owner is scared.
Nationals fan here, apparently all the teams want our top prospects so I imagine this will go down to the wire with heavy negotiations
Apparently Jeff it’s not OK to just get the job done anymore. The guy has blown one save meanwhile Diaz has been terrible and he’s a hot commodity.
Teams are more interested in future performance than past performance. Everything indicates Díaz will be the better pitcher going forward.
GM’s don’t use Blown Saves as a top 10 “stat” when valuing relievers. It’s dumber than ERA.
as a Phillies fan, i have realized not all pitchers can pitch in the 9th inning. Jeanmar Gomez was ruined by the 9th, Neris is a setup man, and Seranthony was run into thr ground last year. in sure showing you can pitch in the 9th is a boon in the eyes of GMs, regardless of what “experts” say.
But the #’s Colome is putting up do not say he can pitch in the 9th. They say he’s getting lucky. And that luck will run out.
*im sure
Right. 0.76 WHIP means nothing. Pfffffffft
Right. 0.76 WHIP means nothing. Pfffffffft
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0.76 is based on a BABIP of .147, while his career BABIP is .276. Do you really think the .147 BABIP is sustainable? If there was a market for this, I’d bet heavily against that.
again, has he been lucky his whole career? hard to imagine, yet his ERA has always been well better then hi$ FIP.
Dark side I just don’t think you want to get in this argument. You’re arguing over your head clearly. You’re making the argument that this guys always outpitches his FIP. Which is fine. Some guys can do that. But what you cannot do is argue that he’s so lucky that it will continue when his BABIP is .100 points below his career average and all his other peripherals are down.
That’s a complete nonsense argument. He’s never sustained an ERA at this level w this profile. It’s not sustainable. You can throw the FIP/xFIP equation out the window.
Pretty sure they do for closers since that is their job description
The Mets gave up their #4 & #6 minor leaguers, in a system that is weaker than some clubs, but I guess a #4 & 6th is too much unknowns is too tough a decision for the head offices
This is a team that tried bunting with 3 straight batters last night. It should be no surprise that they think Colome is for real and can be relied on next year. Tiniest analytics dept in MLB.
So with your thinking, Craig Kimbrel’s ERA is 6.75, but his FIP is 8.10. Considering he has an average defense behind him, does that mean he’s a candidate for regression? Because if that’s the case then that may be the worst FA reliever signing in history.
I wouldn’t be dumb enough to just judge a pitcher on ERA or FIP. Same way GM’s aren’t dumb enough to do that.
Then what do you want to use? His ERA+ of 69? WHIP of 1.69? HR/9 of 3.4? BB/9 of 6.8? Tell me what stats fit your narrative. Any FO that signs a 31 y/o reliever to a 2.5 year $42mm contract should be the ones concerned about regression
How bout we use the stat where he threw his first major league pitch in June?
Kimbrel has pitched 10.2 innings. Drawing any conclusions from that sample size is meaningless.
But don’t draw any conclusions from a closer that has pitched 70% of the season so far. K.
Is that English? I don’t know what the hell you’re saying. I only commented about 10.2 innings being a worthless sample size to draw conclusions from.
important to note Colome’s career ERA is actually a whole half a run lower then his FIP. he has outpreformed hos FIP for a while now, its time to realize the Metrics dont apply very well to him.
Someday some pitcher will put up HOF numbers over a 15 year career and be kept out because his metrics weren’t as good as his stats.
and someday they will lobby to remove some for the same reason.
“Sure, he hit 600 homers, but his ISO was pretty pedestrian.”
That’s why they don’t just use ERA vs. FIP. His career BABIP, His xFIP is off by more than a rn from his career norm. Strand rate, Krate hard hit%, IFFB% are all seriously out of whack and scream regression. This not a guy they can count on next year.
and how many times has that been said and whoever said it been wrong? some guys tend to outpreform their metrics; its not an exact science.
On a long enough timeline #’s that skewed will ALWAYS even out. The rest of ’19 + ’20 is plenty long enough.
again, this has been over his whole career, not just a year or two. and no, they dont always even out.
Why are you stuck on a 1/2 run career different in FIP? Using one stat in isolation is silly. But even that is off by 1.6 runs this year. I guess we’ll see over the next 18 months how he fares in an important roll on the South Side.
Let’s not have an anti intellectual argument here. Colome tends to outperform his FIP/xFIP that’s eminently possible. His .147 BABIP v.279 career BABIP and drop in K rate is a whole other story. .275 WOBA v .300 xWOBA.
He’s performing over his head right now. You’d have to close your eyes and refuse to look at data to say he’s not. Even with regression towards his mean he could still be a useful reliever. Just not nearly as effective as he is today.
Metrics apply to him, they apply to everyone. They are indicators though, rather than exact. Some guys consistently outperform their FIP for isolated reasons, some guys consistently underperform it. We have a pretty good idea why the latter can be true, at least in many cases. We don’t know as much about the former. Regardless, the the Babip and low strikeout rate are glaring and indicate likely regression.
Same stupid bluff lots of teams make to drive price up, make it seem they’re loyal, etc. They get a good offer, they’ll pack his bags for him. And they should trade him because they’re going nowhere this year and won’t be true contenders next year.
screw the peripherals. Bottom line: Colome has been an effective closer. Period. Results matter in this role.
Exactly.
Hahn – you need to clear the deck of flotsam today: Colome, Castillo, Nova, Jay. You can buy back better pieces over the winter.
i think at least in the case of Colome an extention could be reasonable if no suitable offer is given. he has a reliable track record and has showed he can close. that’s a luxury few teams tend to ahve when they start contending it seems.
Colome already controlled for 2020
well next year isnt exactly the big picture
Actually, next year is the start of the big picture. The young players are showing their potential so the White Sox need to go and grab a veteran arm to lead that rotation and a bat either via trade or signing.
Add McCann to that. Sox seem to be fooled by his 1st half as well.
His batting is regressing as expected but at least he can “catch”. Castillo has the framing skills of a 2 year old. Collins may eventually hit but won’t ever be a full time defensive catcher.
McCann is also a bad framer. He only appears passable next to the black hole of pitch-framing they’ve trotted out there since they let Flowers walk. If he’s the starter,it’s bad.
You have to have a staff that can get the pitch close to the plate to be a good pitch framer!
Tyler Flowers of the -.1 WAR?
Framing is but one of Castillo’s weaknesses: hitting, running, staying eligible.
All Star…
White Sox are not hidebound by such antiquated stats as team ‘W’s and ‘L’s. They prefer the modern metrics, such as ‘Wpp$s’, (Wins per payroll dollar spent), in which category they are amongst baseball’s leaders.
However, Colome has been MUCH better than has been often portrayed here. As another noted, a good portion of the very few runs he has allowed have been in garbage time, game lost situations. Not saying he won’t regress since most relievers do. For example, Mariano hasn’t notched many saves lately.
Here’s the bottom line. Colome has outperformed his peripheral stats, and teams are weary about trading for him, expecting regression. He continues to dominate so is worth more to the Sox than they can get in his return.
The White Sox tip off Bob Nightengale when they want to negotiate through the media. This means to me that the Sox are heavily shopping him and want their suitors to bump up their respective antes, to receive a better prospect package in return.
Colome would seem to be a viable option for Boston if available.
Boston doesn’t have much to offer. That farm is just bad, and I don’t see them trading from their current roster.
Jay Groome, Danny Diaz, and Yoan Aybar for Colomé and José Abreu. DD has always liked Abreu, and being able to move J.D. Martinez to the outfield more often gives Alex Cora more options. Colomé would likely close in 2020 as well as 2019.
The White Sox tip off Bob Nightengale when they want to negotiate through the media.
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Someone should create a list of which writers are reliably team shills. Various NYM experts suggested that Wheeler would be dealt, then Wheeler would be extended, then Wheeler would be packaged with Thor, and then Wheeler would be packaged with Diaz.
It happens with every team, but some are simply better at it.
They use Nightengale as a truth mouthpiece. They use Bruce Levine to lie and send messages. Scott Merkin tea leaves are the toughest to read, because they use him for both.
LOL!!! How very true.
Translation: Unwanted pitcher stays with team as White Sox fail to properly value their asset.
You do not make a trade just to make a trade. If the player is not going to net you big pieces, and you have them under control for another season where you think you can be competitive, you do not move him.
Exactly right 100%. Typical Reinsdorf organization.. Over valuating what you posses. While the rest of league knows said player is not worth asking price. And, next season when Colome is blowing saves, then Hanh and Williams will realize they botched yet again
Kenny Williams has used Nightengale to blow southside smoke for decades. I suspect there is interest in Colome but the return is paltry and would amount to a salary dump. GMs not falling for the banana in the tailpipe.
If Colome isn’t dealt today then I’m grabbing a torch and hunting Hahn down like Shriek! When your organization has (5) 23-24 year old relief pitchers in your top 25 prospects..Johnson, Hamilton, Burdi, Heuer and Hansen closing in the minors you find out in 2020 which one or ones will be your future closers. Your not going to compete until 2021 since Kopech, Rondon etc are a year+ removed from surgery.
The Sox have no reason to trade Colome right now. If the offers are lackluster, Hahn is smart to walk away. They can always trade him this time next year and get a better trade.
If your NOT going to contend in 2020, why would you pay a closer $8-10MM if he’s not part of your future. In addition, why allow him to block the arms that you consider to be your future closers? I’d rather throw that money into a free agent that fits your 2020-2024 outlook.
The White Sox have an extremely low payroll going into next year. Overpaying Colome is not a concern.
I wonder what the return was in terms of best offer.
If they didn’t get someone who can help the team now, at a position of need, I can understand not making the deal.
The last time they traded a closer, they got a failed starter who they had to put on the 40-man roster.
Now, this makes no sense if they have no intention of trying to win next year, which, based on the fact that Robert is still in AAA, and Madrigal in AA for absolutely no good reason, I doubt that is the intent.
Still have no clue what Hahn is doing.
It boggles my mind how this site and others continue to ignore Alex Colomes’ most important stat: Holding opponents to a .079 average in 22 save opportunities in 2019.
I’ll take a guy with the clutch gene any game of the week!
Analytics are critical to make informed decisions, but too often are used to silence any debate. Makes some people genuinely upset when pitchers that don’t rely on K’s can still be effective. Granted the pitch to weakish contact is a better attribute for a starter to be efficient/go deeper in games, but still room for RPs like Colome that aren’t as intimidating. Substance over style.
Exactly.
Colome has saved 21 games out of 22. chances.. The man is a closer. He save almost half the WS wins. I don’t get the stats happy people. It just sounds like cover for a really bad team, who wants to stay in black. I remember the only numbers that matter were the ones on the back of a baseball card. Those were the days.
I’ve been going to Sox Park since 1951. I’ll always love a closer who blows only one save in four months. Don’t care about his numbers — just care about results.
Pretty nice late action to finish the deadline.
Gotta make this quick, which figures, since there’s a lot I could say.
The one I’ll say from quickly scanning the posts is this: OK, I get Colome’s numbers will regress, I’m expecting it myself (though nowhere near the regression some of you believe). But, man, some of you act like Colome is a fringe reliever who just got thrown into the closer’s role for the first time in his career and has just been the luckiest player in MLB history. Problem trying to trade him was he wasn’t the big fish for closers. He wasn’t going to get what Hahn was asking.
The team has to be in winning situation for the closer to come in. But since the all star break there hasn’t been many chances. I don’t know what happens But Colome is still doing his job. Also Hahn asks to much for his players.