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Alex Colome

Nationals Sign Alex Colome

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The Nationals announced Friday that they’ve signed veteran reliever Alex Colome to a minor league contract and invited him to Major League spring training. Colome is represented by Wasserman.  According to Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post, Colome has long been on the Nationals’ radar.

Colome, 34, pitched for the Rockies last year and struggled mightily.  In 47 innings, he posted a 5.74 ERA, 14.9 K%, and 10.2 BB%.  The silver lining was a career-best 55.6% groundball rate, which ranked tenth in the National League for relievers with at least 40 frames.  That allowed Colome to post a slightly above-average 0.96 HR/9 despite half his innings coming at Coors Field.

Some of Colome’s best work came with the Rays, the team that signed him as an 18-year-old out of the Dominican Republic.  He made his lone All-Star team in 2016, and led MLB in saves the following year.  The Rays traded Colome to the Mariners in 2018, who shipped him to the White Sox six months later.  He’s since signed a series of one-year deals in free agency, first with the Twins and then with the Rockies.

2022 represented the first time Colome failed to tally double digit saves since 2015, which was also the last season he was used partially as a starter.  The Rockies chose to give their highest-leverage work and most save opportunities to Daniel Bard.  Colome spent part of the summer as manager Bud Black’s third-most trusted reliever, but fell out of favor around August.  His ERA stood at 3.20 on July 30th, and then he proceeded to allow 16 earned runs over his next 7 2/3 innings to close out his season.  Those innings came over 12 appearances, as he recorded zero or one out in five of them.  Perhaps on a related note, Colome had an IL stint in August for right lateral epicondylitis, also known as tennis elbow.  He also spent some time on the bereavement list in September.

Colome has put together a ten-year MLB career with 159 saves, despite missing bats at an above-average clip only twice: in 2016 and 2018.  His control, once pretty strong, has slipped into the 9 BB% range since he joined the White Sox.  Around that same point in his career, Colome started abandoning his four-seam fastball for a cutter.  That has at least allowed him to post a 54.2% groundball rate since 2020.  There was a point when Colome was at least limiting hard contact, but last year 10% of the batted balls he allowed were barrels, which is not a good place to be.

Coming off the season he had, the most important factor in free agency is opportunity, and Colome chose the right team for that.  The Nationals’ highest-leverage reliever from last year, Tanner Rainey, underwent Tommy John surgery in August.  Holdovers include Kyle Finnegan, Carl Edwards Jr., Victor Arano, and Hunter Harvey.  Some of those pitchers had better years than you might have realized, but the rebuilding Nats are a good destination for a veteran reliever trying to rebuild value.

The Nats also brought Sean Doolittle  and Francisco Perez back on a minor league deals and retained Erasmo Ramirez on a $1MM contract, so their ’pen features surprisingly little turnover.  Anthony Banda will also fight for a job in spring training, having signed a minor league deal after pitching for the Pirates, Blue Jays, and Yankees last year.

Perhaps working against a Colome resurgence, USA Today’s Bryan Kalbrosky has noted that he was one of the game’s slowest workers in 2022.  With the implementation of a pitch clock at 15 seconds with bases empty and 20 seconds with runners on, Colome will have to speed things up to avoid getting penalized.

Which Remaining Free Agent Relievers Are Coming Off The Best Seasons?

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The offseason floodgates opened this month, with an avalanche of free agent activity once the Winter Meetings got underway. Things have quieted down in recent days thanks to the holidays, but clubs are likely to again get back to attacking the free agent market in earnest this week.

Most of the winter’s top names are off the board, leaving teams to mostly look through lower-cost options as they search for upgrades on the margins of the roster. There are still a number of experienced options available, particularly for teams seeking to round out the bullpen. Using MLBTR’s free agent list, we find 47 pitchers who tossed at least 20 innings out of a team’s bullpen in 2022 and remain unsigned.

We’ll sort the remaining free agent relievers by various metrics of 2022 performance to identify some of the top arms. There are obviously other factors for teams to consider — quality of raw stuff, pre-2022 track record, the player’s injury history, etc. — but a brief snapshot on the top bullpen arms by last year’s performance should provide a decent starting point for players teams might target moving forward. (All figures cited, including league averages, are looking solely at pitchers’ outings as relievers).

ERA (league average — 3.86)

  1. Matt Moore (LHP), 1.95
  2. Alex Young (LHP), 2.08
  3. Matt Wisler (RHP), 2.23
  4. Wily Peralta (RHP), 2.72
  5. Brad Hand (LHP), 2.80
  6. Andrew Chafin (LHP), 2.83
  7. David Phelps (RHP), 2.87
  8. Ralph Garza Jr. (RHP), 3.34
  9. Jackson Stephens (RHP), 3.38
  10. Michael Fulmer (RHP), 3.39

Strikeout rate (league average — 23.6%)

  1. Daniel Norris (LHP), 30%
  2. Darren O’Day (RHP), 27.7%
  3. Andrew Chafin, 27.6%
  4. Matt Moore, 27.3%
  5. Aroldis Chapman (LHP), 26.9%
  6. Steve Cishek (RHP), 25.8%
  7. Chasen Shreve (LHP), 25.4%
  8. Will Smith (LHP), 24.9%
  9. David Phelps, 23.9%
  10. Noé Ramirez, 23.7%

Strikeout/walk rate differential (league average — 14.5 percentage points)

  1. Andrew Chafin, 19.8 points
  2. Daniel Norris, 19 points
  3. Darren O’Day, 17 points
  4. Chasen Shreve, 16.7 points
  5. Steve Cishek, 16.4 points
  6. Craig Stammen (RHP), 15.7 points
  7. Will Smith, 15.3 points
  8. Matt Moore, 14.8 points
  9. Ross Detwiler (LHP), 14.8 points
  10. Luke Weaver (RHP), 13.8 points

Ground-ball rate (league average — 43.5%)

  1. Luis Perdomo (RHP), 62.5%
  2. Joe Smith (RHP), 57.5%
  3. Alex Young, 55.7%
  4. Alex Colomé (RHP), 55.6%
  5. T.J. McFarland (LHP), 53%
  6. Craig Stammen, 52.6%
  7. Garrett Richards (RHP), 52.4%
  8. Bryan Shaw (RHP), 51.8%
  9. Andrew Chafin, 51.3%
  10. Jacob Barnes (RHP), 50.7%

FIP (league average — 3.86)

  1. Luke Weaver, 2.46
  2. Alex Young, 2.65
  3. Matt Moore, 2.98
  4. Andrew Chafin, 3.06
  5. David Phelps, 3.11
  6. Garrett Richards, 3.16
  7. Jackson Stephens, 3.45
  8. Michael Fulmer, 3.57
  9. Brad Hand, 3.93
  10. Darren O’Day, 4.04

Innings Pitched

  1. Matt Moore, 74
  2. Caleb Smith (LHP), 69
  3. Steve Cishek, 66 1/3
  4. Michael Fulmer, 63 2/3
  5. David Phelps, 62 2/3
  6. Hunter Strickland (RHP), 62 1/3
  7. Will Smith, 59
  8. Andrew Chafin, 57 1/3
  9. Bryan Shaw, 54
  10. Jackson Stephens/Hirokazu Sawamura (RHP), 50 2/3 each

Injury Notes: Colomé, Nance, Mets

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The Rockies announced that right-hander Alex Colomé has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to right lateral epicondylitis. Fellow righty Justin Lawrence was recalled to take over Colomé’s spot on the active roster. (Danielle Allentuck of the Colorado Springs Gazette was among those to relay the moves before the official announcement.)

Lateral epicondylitis is better known as “tennis elbow,” which is perhaps notable for the hurler. The club hasn’t provided any information about how long they expect Colomé to be out of action, though an injury to a pitcher’s throwing elbow will always lead to at least some level of concern.

The 33-year-old was signed to a one-year, $4.1MM contract in the offseason and has thrown 41 1/3 innings of 4.68 ERA ball, getting ground balls at a 55.6% clip. That’s well above the 43.3% league average for relievers and especially important when playing at Coors Field. As an impending free agent on a non-competitive team, Colomé’s name came up in trade rumors, though he ended up staying put after the Rockies had another quiet deadline.

Other injury notes from around the league…

  • The Marlins announced some roster moves between games of today’s doubleheader, with Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald being among those to pass them along. Right-hander Tommy Nance has been reinstated from the injured list, with fellow righty Jeff Brigham being optioned in a corresponding move. Nance made his MLB debut with the Cubs last year and then came to Miami on a waiver claim in March. He hasn’t found much success in the majors so far, pitching to a 6.54 ERA in his first 53 2/3 MLB innings. However, he’s fared much better in the minors, as evidenced by his 3.86 ERA in Triple-A over his career.
  • Last night, the Mets dealt with injuries to two infielders, as Eduardo Escobar left with side tightness and Jeff McNeil departed after a collision with Rhys Hoskins resulted in a cut on his hand. With their infield depth depleted, the club had to resort to emergency measures, plugging outfielder Mark Canha in at third base. Canha has some very limited third base work in his career, coming back in his time with Oakland. He logged two innings at the hot corner in 2015 and 13 more in 2016. “It was a little nerve-racking,” Canha told Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. “I just really didn’t want to make a mistake and make [Max Scherzer] angry.” The situation seems to have just been a temporary stopgap, as McNeil is back in the lineup today, playing second base with Luis Guillorme at third. Gosuke Katoh was at the ballpark today just in case, though neither McNeil nor Escobar were placed on the injured list.

Rockies Remain Unlikely To Trade Daniel Bard, C.J. Cron

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The Rockies have dropped seven of their last ten games, falling into last place in the NL West. They’re set to miss the postseason for the fourth consecutive year, but they remain opposed to any kind of dramatic overhaul. General manager Bill Schmidt flatly rejected the idea of a rebuild earlier this month, and it seems likely they’ll hold onto most or all of their shorter-term players as well.

Closer Daniel Bard and first baseman C.J. Cron have drawn reported interest over the past few weeks, but the Rox haven’t seemed especially urgent to move either player. That remains the case, as both Danielle Allentuck of the Colorado Spring Gazette and Nick Groke of the Athletic relay that neither is likely to be dealt. Both Allentuck and Groke write that Colorado is optimistic about its chances of signing the 37-year-old Bard to a contract extension that’d keep him from hitting the open market this winter as scheduled. Cron, meanwhile, is already under contract for next season at a modest $7.5MM salary.

Speaking with reporters yesterday, Colorado manager Bud Black metaphorically suggested the Rockies have been underwhelmed with the trade offers they’ve received on their veteran players. “We’re fielding calls. We’ve got some players who are desirable,” Black said. “And I can’t speak to it, but I’ll give you some perspective. Team A might call on one of our players and their front office might say, ‘We like this guy.’ And our front office will say, ‘Well, yeah, he’s a good player, you should be on that player. … But this happens a little bit, too. Hey, you guys have a Range Rover. We’ll take your Range Rover and we’ll give you our Honda Accord.’ And teams expect you to do that. Why would we do that? ‘How could you not trade your Range Rover?’ Because we might try to keep our Range Rover! Rather than trade it for your Subaru!”

The Rockies actions in recent seasons have reflected a similar sentiment. While most non-contenders are happy to take the best offer on the table for the bulk of their impending free agents, Colorado declined to trade any of Cron, Jon Gray or Trevor Story at last year’s deadline. It paid off in Cron’s case, as they eventually agreed to a two-year extension and have been rewarded with the slugger’s .280/.335/.521 showing this season. Gray and Story departed in free agency, however, and Colorado received no compensation for the former after surprisingly deciding against issuing him a qualifying offer.

They’re set to adopt a similar approach to this summer’s deadline. Groke writes that Colorado is also hoping to extend starter Chad Kuhl, who’s slated for free agency this winter himself. The righty has expressed openness to staying in Denver, and the organization shares the desire to keep him around. The 29-year-old signed a $3MM guarantee over the winter after being non-tendered by the Pirates. He’s made 19 starts and soaked up 98 innings with mixed results.

Kuhl had excellent numbers early on, carrying a 3.56 ERA through the end of May. He’s hit a major rough patch of late, though, allowing five-plus runs in three of his last five starts while failing to work into the sixth inning on any occasion. Since tossing a complete game shutout against the Dodgers on June 27, he’s allowed 22 runs in 20 2/3 innings. That has brought his season line up to a 4.78 ERA with a personal-low 16.6% strikeout rate.

Spotty recent run notwithstanding, there’s some merit to the Rox’s desire to hold onto Kuhl beyond this season. He’s handled himself well at Coors Field, pitching to a 4.17 ERA while holding opponents to a manageable .258/.313/.428 line through nine home starts. Largely thanks to a quality slider, he’s mostly done well against right-handed batters. Kuhl’s lack of a trustworthy changeup has always contributed to marked platoon concerns, but his sinker-slider mix generally aligns with those of pitchers (i.e. Gray, Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela) whom the Rockies have relied upon in recent years. Depending on the price point, keeping Kuhl around as a lower-cost option at the back of the rotation is defensible — particularly since the trade demand from other clubs figures to be modest given his numbers this month.

Shortstop José Iglesias and right-hander Alex Colomé are each ticketed for free agency as well. Igleias, as a contact-oriented infielder, could hold modest appeal to contenders looking for utility depth. Colomé doesn’t miss many bats, but he’s a solid strike-thrower and ground-ball specialist in the middle innings. Whether Colorado will deal either for a lower-level prospect or two remains to be seen, although both Allentuck and Groke posit that Colomé is the likeliest player on the roster to be traded.

Rockies Unlikely To Be Major Deadline Sellers

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At 39-49, the Rockies are tied with the D-backs for last place in the National League West, sitting 18 games back from the division-leading Dodgers. Only eight teams in baseball have a worse winning percentage than Colorado, and several of those eight came into the 2022 season with no intention of competing as they progressed through rebuilds. The Rockies, as has become par for the course, seem to feel their club is underperforming and don’t envision a major sell-off. General manager Bill Schmidt replied with a simple “no” when asked by Danielle Allentuck of the Denver Gazette if he expects to be a big seller at this year’s deadline.

It’s a familiar refrain for a Rockies club that has enjoyed just two winning seasons in the past decade and appears well on its way to a tenth sub-.500 finish in the past dozen seasons. The Rockies are 171-212 dating back to 2019 but have nevertheless generally eschewed even the trades of veterans on expiring contracts. They added Kevin Pillar and Mychal Givens at the 2020 deadline, for instance. The Rox eventually traded Givens last summer, but that was the sole deadline deal for a club that had Jon Gray, Trevor Story and C.J. Cron on expiring contracts — plus righty Daniel Bard, who is a free agent at the end of the current season.

On the one hand, it’s refreshing to see a team continue to try to turn its fortunes and win in the here-and-now without embarking on an arduous multi-year rebuild (which, in itself, is not the panacea it’s often framed to be). On the other, the Rox have continually expressed ardent belief that this core can be the nucleus of a winning club but have yet to see that faith manifest in the form of consistent wins on the field.

Zealous confidence in the core has been demonstrated through far more than just words. Colorado extended Cron, infielder Ryan McMahon, lefty Kyle Freeland, righty Antonio Senzatela and catcher Elias Diaz, traded for Randal Grichuk and signed Kris Bryant to an eye-popping seven-year deal in an effort to finally turn the corner this year. Smaller deals for Jose Iglesias, Alex Colome and Chad Kuhl were meant to further bolster the roster. But at with just 20 days until the trade deadline, they find themselves in a familiar spot, and the only names among those extensions and new acquisitions who’ve performed up to expectation are Cron, Kuhl, Colome and perhaps Iglesias.

Despite the lackluster results, Schmidt tells Allentuck that he “believe[s] in these guys,” adding confidence that the farm system will soon bring about some reinforcements. The Rox indeed have some nearly MLB-ready talent on the cusp of the Majors, but the system as a whole is ranked between 23rd and 25th among all 30 teams at each of Baseball America, MLB.com, The Athletic and ESPN. Schmidt, the scouting director-turned-GM, surely views his group more favorably, but as Allentuck explores in greater detail, nearly every one of the organization’s most promising pitching prospects has dealt with injuries of varying severity this winter.

Conventional wisdom would suggest that the Rockies should, at the very least, be open-minded about deals involving veterans who are set to be free agents at season’s end. That would include Bard, who’s been one of the better closers in the NL this season, as well as Kuhl, Colome, Iglesias and hard-throwing but mercurial righty Carlos Estevez.

However, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported over the weekend that the Rox hope to sign the 37-year-old Bard to an extension rather than trade him. Allentuck notes that a deal between the two parties isn’t close but similarly suggests that an extension is likelier than a trade. While Nightengale wrote the Rockies could listen to offers on Kuhl, the right-hander himself tells Allentuck that he’s also open to an extension and would prefer to stay in one place rather than bounce around the league. Schmidt seemingly hinted at this when noting that the most commonly speculated trade candidates in Colorado “are the guys that want to stay here.” Based on the team’s recent rash of extensions, it’s certainly possible Kuhl re-signs on a new multi-year deal rather than changing hands in the next three weeks.

There’d obviously be plenty of risk associated with extending Bard or Kuhl. Bard is already 37, and although he’s whiffed 29.5% of opponents, limited hard contact and notched a career-best 56.4% ground-ball rate en route to a 2.14 ERA, his 2021 campaign (5.21 ERA in 65 2/3 innings) is a reminder of the overall volatility of relief pitching. Add in Bard’s age and still-ugly 12.2% walk rate, and there’s definite downside, strong as his results to date have been.

Kuhl, meanwhile, has a 4.02 ERA through 87 1/3 innings — a total that’s already the second-highest mark of the oft-injured righty’s career. The 29-year-old’s 16.9% strikeout rate ranks 71st of the 79 pitchers in MLB with at least 80 innings so far, and his 29.4% opponents’ chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone ranks 73rd. His 41.7% hard-hit rate is the highest mark he’s ever yielded. Perhaps the return wouldn’t be enough to justify a trade, and it can’t be ignored that it’s rare for free-agent pitchers to voice a willingness (or in this case, even a preference) to call Coors Field home.

Still, keeping Kuhl would effectively lock the 2023 Rockies into relying on the same rotation that has produced a 28th-ranked 5.06 ERA in 2022 (plus a 24th-ranked 4.47 FIP and 28th-ranked 4.58 SIERA). In doing so, they’d be betting heavily on improvements from German Marquez, Freeland and Senzatela — although with all three now signed to lucrative multi-year deals, there’s little choice but for the organization to hope for just that.

Last year’s deadline was Schmidt’s first in the GM chair after more than 20 years in other front office roles with the Rockies, so there was no precedent for how he’d approach the trade market. Now, between what we saw last summer and the latest comments to Allentuck, it seems likely to expect a conservative approach that’ll leave the bulk of the roster intact.

That would ostensibly set the stage for another offseason of win-now transactions for the Rockies, but there are payroll considerations to keep in mind as well. Assuming Charlie Blackmon picks up next year’s $10MM player option, they’ll already have $120.5MM in guarantees on the books. That doesn’t include potential salaries for extension candidates Bard and Kuhl, nor does it include arbitration raises for Austin Gomber, Brendan Rodgers, Tyler Kinley, Garrett Hampson and Robert Stephenson. All of that will push the Rockies much closer to their franchise-record $145MM payroll, meaning it’ll be incumbent for the current group to right the ship if they’re to truly turn their fortunes in future seasons.

Rockies Reportedly Open To Trading Chad Kuhl, Alex Colome

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With the August 2 trade deadline just over three weeks away, the Rockies are considering selling some short-term assets, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. He relays that the Rox are shopping reliever Alex Colome and starter Chad Kuhl, but not closer Daniel Bard. Despite Bard’s impending free agency, the Rockies will apparently try to extend him in the coming weeks instead of working on a trade.

As things currently stand, the Rockies are 38-48, tied with the Diamondbacks at the bottom of the NL West and eight games out of a playoff spot. Unless they can gain some ground in the coming weeks, they make on-paper sense as a team that could trade some players that are approaching free agency.

However, it’s worth considering that the Rockies haven’t allowed followed the obvious playbook in this regard. Last year, the club was in a similar situation and had a number of impending free agents, such as Trevor Story, Jon Gray, C.J. Cron and Mychal Givens. In the end, only Givens was traded, with Colorado hanging onto the other three. In Story’s case, the club evidently thought that they would  be better served by making him a qualifying offer and collecting a compensatory draft pick, as opposed to whatever trade offers they received. As for Cron and Gray, the club tried to work out contracts to keep them around, succeeding in the case of Cron but not Gray. All three of Kuhl, Bard and Colome are impending free agents this year and came in at #17, 22 and 27 respectively on MLBTR’s list of top trade candidates.

Colome, 33, was signed in the offseason to a one-year, $4.1MM deal. A veteran reliever with closing experience, he’s gradually transitioned from a strikeout guy to a ground ball guy in recent seasons. From 2016 to 2019, he threw 252 1/3 innings with a 2.78 ERA, 24.7% strikeout rate, 7.9% walk rate and 46.9% ground ball rate. Over 2020 and 2021, he logged another 87 1/3 frames with a 3.30 ERA, 19.5% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate and got grounders at a 53.4% clip. This year, he’s continued those recent trends, throwing 33 innings for Colorado with a 2.73 ERA, 16.8% strikeout rate and 54.6% ground ball rate. He has 159 career saves, including four this season. Just about every team in baseball will be looking to bolster their bullpen at the deadline, meaning Colome shoulder garner plenty of interest.

Kuhl, 29, spent the first five years of his career as a Pirate, throwing 439 2/3 innings with a 4.44 ERA, 20.8% strikeout rate, 10.3% walk rate and 41.7% ground ball rate. After being non-tendered by the Bucs, he signed with the Rockies on a one-year deal worth $3MM plus incentives. Through 16 starts and 87 1/3 innings this year, he’s put up a 4.02 ERA, which would be a career best. However, his strikeout rate has dipped to 16.9% and his grounder rate has also dropped to 36.5%. The key thing helping Kuhl seems to be an 8.9% HR/FB rate, well below the 13.2% mark he had in previous seasons, despite moving to Coors Field. Kuhl surprisingly has a 3.27 ERA at Coors and a 4.70 ERA on the road this year. His barrel rate has dropped to 6.9% this year after being at 13.1% in 2020, so perhaps it’s not entirely just batted ball luck at play. Still, the advanced metrics place his work this season closer to his career norms, with SIERA giving him a 4.85 and FIP a 4.28.

Whether he’s taken a real step forward or not, many contenders will be looking for starting pitching this year and not all of them can acquire Luis Castillo. If the Rockies make Kuhl available, they will surely get interest. However, in a recent piece, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic notes that Kuhl is willing to stick with the Rockies and that the club generally tries to keep any pitcher that’s comfortable in their hitter-friendly environment.

As for Bard, he’s the most unusual of the bunch, having played with the Red Sox from 2009 to 2013 before a case of the yips cut him off from major league action. After several years in the wilderness, he incredibly made it back to the big leagues with the Rockies in 2020 as a 34-year-old. Since then, he’s become the closer in Colorado, racking up 44 saves over the past three seasons. Now 37 years old, Bard has thrown 32 2/3 innings this year with a 2.20 ERA, 29.4% strikeout rate, 12.5% walk rate and 55.3% ground ball rate. Despite his age, the Rockies evidently think he still has something left in the tank, as Nightengale reports that they want to work out a contract that prevents him from reaching free agency.

Rockies To Sign Alex Colome

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March 15: Colome is guaranteed $4.1MM on the contract, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.

March 12: The Rockies have agreed to a one-year deal with Alex Colome, ESPN’s Enrique Rojas reports (via Twitter).  The contract will become official when Colome passes a physical.  Colome is represented by the Wasserman Agency.

Daniel Bard and Carlos Estevez combined for 31 of the Rockies’ 33 total saves in 2021, though Colome’s more established track record as a closer could make him the top ninth-inning choice for the Rox next year.  Bard and Estevez could be moved back into set-up roles, or manager Bud Black could simply take a committee approach with his closer’s role.

Colome is coming off something of an unusual season that saw him post a respectable 4.15 ERA over 65 innings with the Twins, despite a swath of unfavorable Statcast metrics.  While Colome’s bottom-line numbers have generally been much better than his advanced metrics over his career, Minnesota still declined its end of a $5.5MM mutual option on Colome’s services for 2022, instead buying the reliever out for $1.25MM.

Apart from the 22 1/3-inning outlier of the shortened 2020 season, Colome has always posted below-average hard-hit ball rates over his career.  While his whiff rate has remained above average, Colome’s strikeout rates have been mediocre since the start of the 2019 season, while his walk rates have hovered around the league average mark.  A .211 BABIP was of great help to Colome during his 2019-20 seasons with the White Sox, as his 2.27 ERA was far below his 4.52 xFIP and 4.42 SIERA over those two years.

Generating grounders has become an increasingly large part of Colome’s gameplan as his strikeouts have been on the wane, and the 53.4% grounder rate he has posted over the last two seasons will be of great help at Coors Field.  After spending all nine of his MLB seasons in the American League, the 33-year-old has only a single appearance at Coors Field over his 393 career games.

Twins Claim Jharel Cotton, Outright Rob Refsnyder

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The Twins announced Friday that they’ve claimed righty Jharel Cotton off waivers from the Rangers and outrighted infielder/outfielder Rob Refsnyder off the 40-man roster. Minnesota also confirmed prior reports that right-hander Alex Colome’s 2022 mutual option has been declined.

Though his track record is spotty, Cotton put up solid numbers as a low-leverage relief option for the Rangers in 2021, posting a 3.52 ERA (3.72 FIP) across 30 2/3 innings while striking out just shy of a batter an inning. For his career, Cotton sports a less appealing 4.71 ERA (5.06 FIP) over 189 innings, though prior to 2021 he hadn’t seen a big-league mound since he covered 129 of those innings as a back-end starter for the 2017 A’s.

Since then, Cotton has dealt with a variety of injuries, undergoing both Tommy John surgery in 2018 and a hamstring issue that also required surgery in 2019. The A’s traded him to the Cubs for cash considerations in late 2019, and though he was chosen for the Cubs’ alternate site, he was never promoted to the active roster. The Rangers then signed him to a minor league deal and promoted him to the bigs in July of this year after he pitched to a 3.00 ERA in 42 innings at Triple-A Round Rock.

Cotton will be arbitration-eligible in 2022 (Matt Swartz pegs him at a $1.2MM salary in MLBTR’s arbitration projections), which may be behind the Rangers’ decision to move on from the righty. The Twins evidently see him as a potential bargain, however, as they look to return to contention next year following a disappointing 2021. They’ll hope Cotton can help solidify the back end of a ’pen that featured several solid options (Taylor Rogers, Caleb Thielbar, Tyler Duffey) in 2021 but struggled to cover a season’s worth of innings.

Refsnyder, a journeyman utility bench bat, was also eligible for arbitration, but the Twins have decided not to tender him a contract at a projected $800K salary. He’ll presumably opt for minor league free agency in the coming days.

Across 614 plate appearances in parts of six seasons with the Yankees, Blue Jays, Rays, Rangers, and Twins, Refsnyder has put together a .224/.310/.308 line. His versatility may give him a chance to catch on somewhere, but he’ll likely need to find a way to tap into more power (he’s slugged .442 across parts of nine seasons in the minors) to add much value.

Twins Decline Mutual Option On Alex Colome

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The Twins have declined a $5.5MM mutual option on veteran right-hander Alex Colome, tweets Dan Hayes of The Athletic. He’ll instead be paid a $1.25MM buyout and return to the open market in search of a new opportunity.

Colome, 32, joined the Twins after spending two years as the primary stopper for the division-rival White Sox. He got out to a dismal start in April and had a rough final month few weeks, but from May 1 through early September was generally strong (3.06 ERA, 56.5% ground-ball rate). Of course, the unsightly bookends on his season can’t be overlooked, and Colome’s lone year in a Twins uniform will culminate in 65 innings of 4.15 ERA ball with a 20% strikeout rate, a 7.9% walk rate and a 53.7% ground-ball rate.

While it’s certainly a respectable overall season for Colome, that 4.15 ERA is a far cry from the 2.27 mark he posted with the South Siders from 2019-20. That much shouldn’t come as a total surprise, as Colome’s excellent run with the Sox was largely fueled by a microscopic .211 average on balls in play that he never figured to repeat. Colome’s 20.9% strikeout rate, 9.1% walk rate and 47.2% grounder rate are all at least loosely in line with what he gave to the Twins, but this year’s .305 BABIP from Colome fell more in line with the league average than during his time with the Sox.

The Twins likely weren’t counting on Colome to replicate that low-2.00s ERA, rather seeing him as a potential bargain late in the offseason last winter. The fact that Colome settled for a one-year deal of this nature even after that shiny ERA and an AL-leading saves total from 2019-20 suggests that the rest of the market was similarly bearish on his chances of repeating the feat.

Colome will join the middle tiers of a free-agent market that lacks too many high-end options. Raisel Iglesias is in his own tier as the clear No. 1 reliever in free agency, with breakout righty Kendall Graveman perhaps leading the second tier of options. Colome didn’t find a multi-year deal last winter, so it’s possible he’ll ultimately sign another one-year pact this time around.

As for the Twins, they’ll be on the hunt for additional arms both in the rotation and in the bullpen. Closer Taylor Rogers saw his season end in July due to a strained ligament in his pitching hand, but if his health outlook is clear then he should return to hold down the fort in the late innings again. Veteran Tyler Duffey, flamethrowing 26-year-old Jorge Alcala and graybeard lefty Caleb Thielbar should all have roles in that late-inning mix next year, too, but the Twins figure to bring in at least one arm — if not multiple arms — in order to bolster that group.

The Twins Are One Of The Keys To The Trade Deadline

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The Twins have looked like sellers for much of the season, but as we’ve seen in recent years, most clubs prefer to wait until closer to the deadline to chart a course. As noted here recently, Minnesota faces almost exclusively AL Central clubs leading up to the July 30 trade deadline. If there was a 2019 Nationals-esque surge in this group, now would be the time to set it in motion.

The Twins started off taking two of three against an Indians club whose rotation is in tatters, but they’ve dropped their first two against the White Sox to fall 13.5 games out of first place in the division. For a team that needs to be nearly flawless over this pivotal stretch of divisional opponents — particularly versus Cleveland and Chicago — dropping three of the first five games isn’t a great start.

Given that this was a team most expected to contend for the Central, at the very least, it’s not at all surprising that there are several players who’d interest contenders. In fact, ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote in yesterday’s 20 Questions column that the Twins are “the team almost every contender is waiting on.” Minnesota still plays the White Sox eight times, the Tigers a whopping 11 times and the Royals three times before the trade deadline, so maybe they can pull off the macro version of last night’s staggering Angels comeback, but it’s becoming increasingly likely that this goes the direction most onlookers have expected for awhile now.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at what the Twins could do as the deadline draws nearer…

The Rentals

Michael Pineda, RHP ($10MM salary): Pineda is currently on the shelf with inflammation in his right elbow. He’s been out since June 14, but he’s slated for a rehab start in Triple-A today. Assuming there are no setbacks, Pineda would be one of the most attractive options on the rental market. He’s an established mid-rotation arm who has performed well with the Twins when he’s been able to take the mound (3.86 ERA, 3.92 FIP in 228 2/3 innings over 42 starts). Pineda did get hit with a PED suspension in 2019, although it was one of the rare instances where the league seems to have believed some of his plea of innocence, as MLB reduced his ban from 80 to 60 games. Many undoubtedly recall Pineda’s pine tar-covered hat in his Yankees days and will wonder about him in connection to the current crackdown on foreign substances. On that note, it’s worth pointing out that his spin rates were below-average in the first place and had actually decreased since signing with the Twins. We can’t know anything for sure, of course, but on paper he doesn’t look like your typical “Spider Tack” case.

Nelson Cruz, DH ($13MM): Happy 41st birthday, Nelson! The Boomstick is still swinging it as well as ever, slashing .307/.378/.585 with 18 home runs, 11 doubles and his first triple since 2018. Cruz has been 57 percent better than a league-average hitter, per wRC+, and he’s cut his strikeout rate from 25.7 percent in his first two years with Minnesota down to 19.1 percent in 2021. His market will be limited to AL clubs unless some NL GM really, really wants an interleague/World Series DH and an occasional pinch-hitter. (We’ve all learned never to rule anything out with A.J. Preller by now.) AL contenders who could use an upgrade at DH include the A’s, Blue Jays, Rays and White Sox. Of course, Cruz’s salary may be steep for the A’s and Rays, and it’s hard to imagine the Twins shipping Cruz to their top division rival.

Andrelton Simmons, SS ($10MM): Simmons hasn’t been great with the bat in Minnesota — .245/.316/.328, 81 wRC+ — but the defense looks sharp. Simmons’ defensive metrics took a tumble in both 2019 and 2020 after he suffered a Grade 3 ankle sprain and then re-sprained that ankle a second time. In 2021, he’s third among all players, regardless of position, with 12 Outs Above Average, per Statcast. He’s also notched a plus-2 mark in Defensive Runs Saved after registering minus-2 in that regard in just 265 innings last summer. The ankle appears healthy, and his range has seemingly improved as a result. If you want to upgrade your infield defense, they don’t come much better than this.

Alex Colome, RHP ($6.25MM): Colome was the Twins’ biggest offseason pickup in the bullpen, but the outstanding fortune he had on balls in play with the White Sox went up in smoke in 2021. Teams were surely wary of Colome’s .211 average on balls in play over the past two seasons with the ChiSox, which quite likely why the Twins were able to wait him out and get him for just a year and $6.25MM. Colome immediately stumbled out of the gates in Minnesota, blowing a game in his first appearance and floundering through a poor overall showing in April. He’s posted a respectable 3.60 ERA with a huge 58.1 percent grounder rate in 20 innings since, but he doesn’t look anywhere near as impressive as he did for the South Siders. Presumably, the asking price here wouldn’t be too high.

Hansel Robles, RHP ($2MM): Robles’ numbers would’ve looked better had this breakdown been written before his past two appearances, when he’s been tagged for four runs in two innings. But the right-hander is still sporting a 3.63 ERA and 48.3 percent ground-ball rate — albeit with a slightly below-average strikeout rate and a bloated 13.6 percent walk rate. He’s also experienced a rebound in fastball velocity after a dip in 2020, and he’s on a cheap enough contract that a contending club with luxury tax concerns might be particularly intrigued.

J.A. Happ, LHP ($8MM): Happ got out to a decent start in 2021, but he’s been shelled for most of his past nine appearances. His best performance in that stretch was his most recent, when he held Cleveland to a pair of runs on six hits and no walks with seven punchouts in six innings. If he can string together a few more nice outings like that, maybe some club would pick him up for a negligible return (i.e. partial salary relief) to try to stabilize the back of its rotation.

More Controllable Possibilities

Jose Berrios, RHP ($6.1MM, controllable through 2022): If the Twins were to make Berrios available, he might be the most coveted name on the market. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported recently that the Cardinals have inquired and, unsurprisingly, found the asking price to be quite high. Still, Passan writes that a growing number of executives around the game expect the Twins to be willing to seriously consider a trade. That’s likely indicative of the level of interest in Berrios, as the Twins don’t seem likely to embark on a total rebuild even if they do sell. They’d likely seek young controllable, big-league ready talent in a trade of Berrios, who boasts a 3.41 ERA and matching 3.40 FIP with a career-best 26.5 percent strikeout rate and a 6.4 percent walk rate (the second-lowest of his career). His current salary is eminently affordable, and even with an aggressive raise in arbitration, he’d still be a bargain next year. Any contending club would love to have Berrios — it’s just a matter of how strong the offers are and whether the Twins are willing to compromise their 2022 roster by trading the best pitcher they’ve developed in the past decade.

Taylor Rogers, LHP ($6MM, controllable through 2022): Rogers has put a shaky (by his standards) 2020 season behind him. Through his first 32 innings, he’s sitting on a 2.53 ERA that’s actually higher than his FIP, xFIP and SIERA. Rogers’ 32.6 percent strikeout rate is back in line with his 2019 level, and this year’s 3.9 percent walk rate is the best of his career. He has the fifth-best chase rate of any qualified reliever in MLB. As with Berrios, Rogers could play a key role for the 2022 Twins, so the offer would need to  be strong. But relievers with this combination of swing-and-miss ability and command — particularly lefties — are tough to come by, so the demand will be sizable. This is also a Twins front office that generally hasn’t been keen on committing too much to any individual reliever, and Rogers’ final arbitration raise will push his salary into the $8-9MM range. A trade to a contender is very plausible. (As an aside, it’d be quite the fun story to see twin brothers co-closing games for a contending club. We’re all looking at you, Giants.)

Tyler Duffey, RHP ($2.2MM, controllable through 2022): Duffey hasn’t been the dominant setup man he was in 2019-20, but he’s controlled another season on a cheap salary and has still been effective in 2021. There’s no sugar-coating that his strikeout and walk rates from 2019-20 have dropped from 34.2 percent and 6.1 percent, respectively, to 22 percent and 12.6 percent in 2021. He’s improved both a bit over his past 15 outings, though, and only allowed two runs in that time. Overall, he has a 3.52 ERA and 3.84 FIP in 30 2/3 innings. As with Robles, if you’re a contending team with luxury tax concerns, taking a chance on a cheap reliever with a bigger track record probably has some appeal.

Caleb Thielbar, LHP ($700K, controllable through 2024): A Minnesota native and feel-good comeback story from 2020, Thielbar can be controlled another three years beyond the current campaign. That might make dealing him counterintuitive should the Twins be looking for a quick turnaround after a theoretical summer sale, but Thielbar will turn 35 this offseason and relievers are volatile in the first place. The Twins brought him back from indie ball last year, so there’s a “playing with house money” element to marketing him. He’s pitched 50 1/3 innings of 2.86 ERA ball with a 30.1 percent strikeout rate and an 8.1 percent walk rate since returning last summer. Fielding-independent metrics largely support the ERA. With multiple contenders sitting right on the luxury-tax precipice, Thielbar could be an under-the-radar but highly attractive chip for the Twins.

Longer Shots

Like Berrios, Rogers and Duffey, Byron Buxton is controlled only through the 2022 season. However, Buxton is on the injured list after an errant fastball fractured his left hand in a recent at-bat, and it’s nearly impossible to envision the Twins moving their most talented player at such a low point. The durability concerns with Buxton are understandable, and his repeated absences in 2021 have been a major factor in the Twins’ current predicament, but trading him doesn’t feel realistic.

It’s a similar story with righty Kenta Maeda, who has been hit hard this season and spent time on the injured list with an adductor strain. The Twins control him into 2023, and even if his struggles as a starter continue, his $3.25MM base salary is plenty reasonable if he’s in a bullpen or hybrid role. He doesn’t need to be the ace-caliber arm he was in 2020 to justify his contract, and the flexibility he provides the Twins moving forward carries more value than what they’d receive by selling low in a trade.

Right fielder Max Kepler and second baseman Jorge Polanco would no doubt attract interest thanks to their long-term deals, but Kepler is in the midst of his own down season and controlled affordably all the way through 2024. Polanco had a dismal three-week slump to open the year but has hit quite well (.275/.345/.483) since that time. He’s signed through 2025, so there’s little reason for the Twins to consider anything there.

Josh Donaldson is hitting .299/.382/.662 over the past month and has homered in three straight games, but he’s also 35 years old and only in the second season of a four-year, $92MM contract that affords him limited no-trade protection. It’s tough to see something coming together with all the money still owed to him.

The Twins might welcome a taker for strikeout-plagued slugger Miguel Sano, who is hitting .195/.280/.435 this season with a 37 percent punchout rate. But Sano is making $11MM this year, $9.25MM in 2022, and is also owed a $2.75MM buyout on a $14MM option for the 2023 season.

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With a deep reserve of enticing position prospects, headlined by current big leaguers Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach, plus several key pieces under long-term control and plenty of payroll space this winter, the Twins shouldn’t be expected to completely tear the roster down. It’d make sense to target some controllable arms, however, as they’ve dealt with injuries to several of their top pitching prospects in 2021 (Jhoan Duran, Jordan Balazovic and Matt Canterino among them).

At the end of the day, the Twins might prefer to hold out a bit longer before waving the proverbial white flag, but they’d need a historic rally to overcome a 13.5-game deficit in the division or a 12.5-game deficit in the Wild Card race at this point in the season. It increasingly feels like a matter of time before they start moving some short-term veterans, with the greater question being how aggressively they’ll sell rather than whether they’ll sell at all.

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