The long-suffering Padres made a stunning strike in free agency last offseason when they signed former Orioles and Dodgers infielder Manny Machado to a 10-year, $300MM contract in late February. For a short period, Machado’s deal stood as the richest in the history of the game. Outfielder Bryce Harper – who, along with Machado – owned baseball-related headlines last winter, surpassed him less than two weeks later with a 13-year, $330MM guarantee from the Phillies. Harper was more good than great in the first year of his accord, though, while Machado probably wasn’t as strong as many expected him to be in his San Diego debut.
In the end, neither Harper nor Machado led their teams to drought-breaking playoff berths in 2019. The Padres won a paltry 70 games and extended their postseason-less streak to a whopping 13 years, though they surely remain hopeful Machado will help them back to relevance in short order. However, for the Padres to maximize their chances of success as they move ahead, they’re going to need the more productive version of Machado to reappear.
To his credit, Machado continued an impressive run of durability in 2019, appearing in at least 156 games for the fifth consecutive season. He also belted upward of 30 home runs (32) for the fifth year in a row. Overall, though, the Machado who was a dominant offensive player as recently as 2018, when he posted a wRC+ of 140 en route to 6.2 fWAR, wasn’t present. Machado’s wRC+ dropped to 108 this year, while his fWAR total fell to 3.0. Both figures are respectable, but they don’t make for superstar-caliber output. The same can obviously be said of the .256/.334/.462 line Machado recorded over 661 plate appearances. And Statcast doesn’t indicate Machado deserved a better fate at the plate, evidenced by his matching .339 weighted on-base average/expected wOBA (a steep drop-off from his .377/.372 in 2018).
On the defensive side, Machado remained a stalwart at third base, where he accounted for 5 Defensive Runs Saved and a plus-2.4 Ultimate Zone Rating. Per the metrics, Machado was less successful at shortstop (minus-2 DRS, minus-1.5 UZR), but that doesn’t figure to be his long-term spot anyway. He saw 299 innings at the position because of multiple lengthy injured list stints for rookie Fernando Tatis Jr., who, when healthy, showed why he’s one of the most coveted young players in baseball.
Machado, for his part, is still plenty youthful in his own right. He won’t turn 28 until next July, and even though the four-time All-Star wasn’t a force this season, the left side of San Diego’s infield will remain in enviable shape going forward with him and Tatis in the fold. As for this year, though, how would you assess Machado’s performance?
(Poll link for app users)
that slash line leaves much to be desired
Just another example of teams being stupid. 5 years of suffering for nothing.
THis team is really a scattered mess, they need a Mgr. to kick some back sides yet has some patience to a point. There are plenty to choose from I hope its an experienced Mgr. but not Asumus, not Maddon, not Hurdle. The Mgr. should come from outside the organization. I believe you’ll see about eight to nine new faces on the 25/26 man roster in 2020. Over haul is an understatement,
B. I’m a bit disappointed in his offense this year but he doesn’t have a long ways to go before getting back to where he should be. I’m still really happy he’s playing for the Padres.
I hope these home/road splits don’t write the story permanently.
He was Petco’d! The away is pretty close to his career output.
Nice post. I was about to write about his splits too. His RH/LH splits are drastic as well. He crushed LHP at a tune of a 1.089 OPS vs a flimsy .715 OPS vs RHP.
Those splits weren’t as drastic in 2018 as he had a .897 OPS vs RHP and a .921 vs LHP. In his career it’s been fairly even too at .808 vs RHP and .847 OPS vs LHP.
Interesting to see how he fares next year.
12 homers and 27 RBI’s post All
Star Break for 300 mil is sad
Over all he is a solid B. His slash line is one thing but he worked with tatis a lot. He took him under his wing and tried to mentor him. It also doesn’t help when the players surrounding manny were that good.
It really doesn’t make sense…how have the Padres been so bad but yet have this unheralded minor league system for the last..what 3 years…idk but it is starting to get old that their system is number 1 but yet the results aren’t there
The system is number one for depth, but the high ceiling prospects like Tatis jr. and Paddack are just now arriving. The best pitching prospects are still at AA.
Remember Prospects are suspects until proven in the Bigs, so far I’ve seen very little of our great farm system.
Marcus was already taken
So far two of them have really worked out
Show Me Your Tatis
Only four were top 100 prospects. Two of them (Tatis and Paddack) delivered on the hype. Mejia was top 100 because of his bat and started to show why once he got legitimate playing time. Urias started out slow but started to turn a corner in September. Only prospects that came up this year that have really disappointed are Morejon and Baez.
it’s called player development. they do it all the time in Tampa
It’s not too bad considering he left a hitters ballpark and went to one of the best pitchers parks. 3 good pitcher parks in his division… Padres, San Fran and LAD.
That park in San Diego is going to swallow Machado’s power as he gets older. And unless they take a significant discount, the Padres will be dragging along the corpse of Eric Hosmer during Machado’s prime years.
Sad but true
He got 30 million to be less valuable than Tommy Edman, who played half a season at a pro-rated league minimum. That’s a C at best
And Edman from San Diego!
And White Sox fans wanted this guy. Glad they stuck with Anderson the batting champion and Moncada breakout year at the hot corner.
They could’ve just stuck Moncada at second and had three good infielders instead of two…
Moncada didn’t have a good year at 2nd. Plus Madrigal is the future 2B for the Sox
Show Me Your Tatis
But they offered Machado a better contract than SD did!
It was a better contract for the team, not for just one dude.
Show Me Your Tatis
Yes, it was a better contract from the team’s POV because it meant they didn’t have to pay the dude for his age 35 and 36 seasons. But players want to be paid for their age 36 seasons. That’s why it was a worse contract from Machado’s POV.
Would you pay full price on a three-day-old hamburger?
Show Me Your Tatis
How does that have to do anything?
Okay, if all logistics suggest player performance drops at 34 then significantly at 35, 36. That’s potentially a real old hamburger. Heck, for the past 3 off seasons there are tons of veteran players not getting signed who are 30!
White Sox have a glut of high performance young players approaching contracts in the next few years. We didn’t have that cash extra to spare, unless it was in the team’s interest more than the player or agent. Hence, shorter term and incentives.
From the CWS perspective, granted old news, we padded the first year by signing $11M of his friends to ease the adjustment period of him coming to a new ball club. The media called it enticement, but anyone paying attention knows it has to do with maximizing results of a deal like this.
In your case you paid more, but Machado switched entire leagues, all new pitchers, all new ballparks. The fact he still performed admirably is a testament to his talent. Later in his career he goes to a high budget team for his final years who can afford the price for that. But SD stuck him with that price, and gambled requiring a bail out.
Show Me Your Tatis
We’ll see if the Padres end up regretting paying what they did for Machado. But from the player’s POV, the Padres’ contract offer was the best. Machado was not going to get 2/$50m as a 34 y/o free agent likely with a QO attached.
I don’t think there will be any regrets. Machado is a future HOF candidate. Yeah, he’s that good. If I were a Padre, I’d say it’s time to seriously cut weight and keep the guys to build around where you doubled down. It’s not a bad strategy, but it wouldn’t surprise me if some current guys know they were “it” and now they’re not. Look at what’s happening in Philadelphia? Same thing there.
Fowler is right in ripping the team and a few players at that. Myers is gone for sure and Fowler said they’d eat half his salary, good riddance. He also is not please with Hedges and Hosmer defense at first base. I see plenty of trades and new faces in 2020. Per Fowler if they dont make the playoffs in 2020 Preller could be shown the door with others.
At this point I believe the chocie of a Mgr. is most critical, many Mgr’s have been fired, Brad Ausmus, Joe Maddon, Clint Hurdle, and i see a few more being let go. Plenty of Mgr’s to choose from and hopefully Preller with the FO assisting make the right decision.
I’d say good by to most of the OF, Urias needs more AAA playing time, four pitchers should be sent back down to EP or traded, Hedges should be shown the door, let’s bring in some ML players and SP’s, also two OF’s a good utility IF to go along with Greg Garcia to stay, I like Ty as a utility player if he can at least hit .270. I’d also think Hosmer as trade bait, highly over paid.. The whole team as noted is really bad. To finish below the Rox in last again is a joke for sure.
Lol at Hosmer being trade bait. He’s never getting traded.
Think they will have to eat more than half of Myers’ salary to move him at all He just has no market at this point. But the Padres can dream.
Show Me Your Tatis
Shhhhhh don’t say that or @outinleftfield and @Padres2019ha will drag you off to the firing squad
THE OF stinks, send Naylor to AA, Jank release,, Renfroe trade bait, Martini release, doesn’t leave much does it. With Myers traded or given away some team will pick him up for $10M a year when we eat the difference. Let’s hope the great Preller can bring up his hot shots from AAA to fill the OF gaps and make a few trades to find some real OF’s and SP’s.
Renfroe is useful and Myers is going nowhere as no one wants that salary unless SD pay all of it.
Yea seriously can Padres fans please stop acting like Myers has anything but negative value. You would have to add prospects to any deal involving him
I can see someone taking ten million TOTAL if a top 30 prospect is included.
The guy has the 5th largest sports K in the World. He should (and will) be scrutinized accordingly. Not great, Bob!
Since it seems the Pads biggest problem is pitching wouldn’t they be obligated too go hard for Cole this winter to show that signing Manny was a commitment to winning that pairs with the heavy pursuit for Cole? I mean, if you’re not trying to reap the ultimate benefit of investing in your team by at least challenging for a championship then what’s the point of signing a guy to a then record $300+ mil deal?
They’re not spending more.
The Padres have guaranteed $527 million over the last 3 years to Myers, Hosmer and Machado with terrible results. Maybe they should look into trades because they are going to start losing payroll flexibility. They have the prospects.
Machado couldn’t hit in his home park (86 wRC+} which is not a good sign. He also only had one great month of hitting, June.
I Don”t know what happened after June, but hitting .233/.317/.404, 91 wRC+ from July 3 to the end of the season is inadequate for someone accounting for a large percentage of the payroll. With Myers and Hosmer, $227m total guaranteed, still on the books and not performing maybe this offseason try and trade some of that prospect depth for low cost, productive players.
Machado will be fine when Tatis comes back.
To be fair he had to adjust to a new league and a new ballpark. I would assume his power numbers would continue to be diminished from his Camden output but as he gets used to Petco he should be able to make up for some of that with more singles and doubles.
His defense at third remains stellar so unlike Harper he does provide significant value on defense.
The sad thing is, the visiting team seems to have the advantage at Petco. Playing 4 good games there is much easier than playing 80+.
We need to look into additional ways to make the park play more fairly. Adjust the humidity of the ball, or partially enclose Petco?
I gave him a B since he still had a 3 WAR season and wasn’t the reason the Padres sucked this year. Even if he had a better year they might have only won 73 instead of 70
Word from the wise is that Manny checked out early on ex-Manager Green..
Hope that wasn’t what happened here, but the chatter increased over the last few weeks.
From the inside: manny would not speak to green. That is disrespectful. Manny is a role player but not a role model. If he was both, the dodgers would have kept him. Dave Roberts knows the difference….Preller probably does not.