We’re obviously not going to see a repeat Cy Young winner in the American League this year. Rays left-hander Blake Snell took home the award a season ago, but his output has fallen off somewhat since 2018, and he just returned from a several-week absence anyway. There’s another Ray, right-hander Charlie Morton, who may have a case to rack up some votes this season, but it looks as if the winner will be one of his ex-Astros teammates.
Righty aces Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander have arguably outdone every other AL pitcher this year. The numbers entering Wednesday’s action bear it out, as you’ll see below…
- ERA – Verlander: 2.50 (first in the AL); Cole: 2.62 (second)
- Innings: Verlander: 212 (first); Cole: 192 1/3 (fifth)
- Strikeouts per nine: Cole: 13.66 (first); Verlander: 12.01 (second)
- K/BB ratio: Verlander: 7.08 (first); Cole: 6.49 (second)
- Wins – Verlander: 19 (first); Cole: 17 (second)
- bWAR – Verlander: 7.8 (second); Cole: 6.0 (fourth)
- fWAR – Cole: 6.5 (first); Verlander: 6.1 (tied for second)
Some of those figures have already changed tonight, as Cole is in the midst of a lights-out showing against the Rangers. As of this writing, the 29-year-old has fired six shutout innings of two-hit ball with eight strikeouts and zero walks. Cole now has exactly 300 punchouts on the season, putting him in fairly exclusive company.
Based on Cole’s enormous K total and the rest of the statistics above, it would be tough to make a case against him or Verlander. However, two other Texas-based starters – Mike Minor and Lance Lynn – have also enjoyed elite seasons. Minor ranks first in the league in pitcher bWAR, in fact, with Lynn not far behind. Despite that, the two Rangers are clearly facing long odds if they’re going to earn Cy Young honors over either of the Astros. Likewise, although Morton, Indians starter Shane Bieber and even Athletics closer Liam Hendriks have arguably placed themselves in the race with their marvelous performances, it’s improbable anyone from that trio will come out on top.
A first-time Cy Young win for Cole in 2019 would come at an especially opportune time for him, as he’s under two months from reaching free agency. Cole figures to rake in the largest contract on the open market then – perhaps a deal in excess of $200MM – and it wouldn’t exactly harm his bargaining power to collect the game’s most prestigious honor for a pitcher in the meantime. The 36-year-old Verlander has surprisingly won the Cy Young just once in what should be a Hall of Fame career. The former Tiger also grabbed the AL MVP that season (2011), and though it was eight years ago, Verlander hasn’t slowed down to any noticeable degree since.
Cole, Verlander and the rest only have a couple weeks left to make their Cy Young arguments on the mound. As things stand, which pitcher do you think is in the lead?
(Poll link for app users)
Ehh close but I chose Gerrit Cole. There should be a “Both” option lol. I’m already having regrets. Both are so good.
Verlander and Cole should both get some MVP votes too.
ive mentioned this before, ans I know it sounds slightly silly, but i think Charlie Morton makes a heck of a lot of sense for MVP, but not CY. clearly Verlander has been the better pitcher this year, but the overall distribution of talent really mitigates his value. Morton has been the steady force on that Rays staff all year, and while Verlander has been better, the Rays would probably not be making the playoffs, but the Astros still would be.
Verlander got ripped off by two writers before so if he finished second again, he’s going to lose it. All things being equal, JV is 36 pitching like he’s 25 so give to him!
He’s makes over $30mill and is married to Kate Upton, so if this one little thing doesn’t go his way, excuse me if I don’t offer up any pity.
Verlander has good stuff because he is hyper competitive. I suspect he wants the CY Young more than we mortals can imagine.
I voted Cole. He’s throwing another shutout tonight thru 6. And his strikeouts are way way up there. It might come down to the last few starts here… Who gets lit up. Or if they can continue pushing eachother… Verlander is right there though.
WAR is only good for position players; it doesn’t measure pitchers that accurately
Look I’ll have to leave my vote for Minor. He has a 7.8 WAR with Texas, most in the AL. It’s a tough season for him and Lynn, and I would give him a slight edge over Verlander and Cole for just this year.
This is a two man race.
Verlander has more strikeouts, a better ERA, WHIP, FIP, H/9, and BB/9.
Verlander doesn’t have more strikeouts… that’s really the only reason Cole could beat him out as Cole has almost 20 or so more K’s and close to 1.0 K/9 more average. (or somewhere between .5 – 1.0 K/9 more)
pitching WAR means nothing. MLB.com litterally wrote an article some time ago about how Lance Lynn was the fWAR leader for pitchers. for reference, his ERA was above 4.00. ‘nuf said.
So I’m hearing that ERA is flawed
Who?
Biebertime!
That’s right
Not much of a question if the season ended today
Lower ERA: Verlander
Lower WHIP: Verlander
More wins: Verlander
More innings pitched: Verlander
More strikeouts: Cole (by a measly 9)
Cole isn’t far off from Verlander but Verlander has him beat pretty much everywhere.
Maybe that changes over the final week and a half but as it stands today this isn’t much of a question when I look at it.
And yeah I’m aware Cole is pitching tonight and closing the gap on some of these.
Like I said this could become more of a race depending how they finish. But as of today it’s clearly Verlander at the moment.
i mean Cole can throw x shutout innings, but my money says verlander matches him stride for stride. Verlander is ahead now, and i dont see them playing much different the rest of the way. easy vote.
Verlander’s no hitter put him over the top of Cole imo.
everyone keeps wanting to make excuses for Cole, but in reality, he never had a chance in this race. he had the breakout last year and suddenly he’s baseball’s best pitcher. while he didnt decline like Bauer was likely to do, (surpise – he did) a breakout doesnt make you baseball’s best player by default. we all know its Verlander.
Right now its Justin Verlander but Gerit Cole has steadily gained. Lets see at the end of the season.
It’s a shame Verlander got screwed out of another Cy in 2016. Could have been working on cinching up his 3rd this year. I think it’s his to lose if he stays steady to the end.
winning is nice, but finishing 2nd twice over 1st once is arguably better. obviously there is no trophy for career shares, but that’s where the money is at, and a new stat i can truely get behind.
No, it’s not!
well perhaps not for the player, but their legacies are better served by career shares. (relevant in the sense of hall voting, because voters are unreasonably obsessed with silly things like awards and wins)
Exactly! JV got screwed once & what has Porcello done since? Karma is a bitch!
Verlander’s my guy obviously, but I wouldn’t be mad if Cole won. If I was forced to pick a non-Astro, I’d pick an ex-Astro, Charlie Morton.
Gotta be Verlander. Poor dude was already screwed out of the Cy Young in 12, 16 and 18. And Cole will get more chances whereas Verlander is nearing the end of his career.
I suspect Verlander will lose a few votes for his lockout of a Detroit media member this year.
May be enough to put Cole over the top.
That member is surely not voting for him
Cole would be my pick he has been more valuable lately pitching longer into games and saving that bullpen
If those two jackwagon Tampa writers derail JV again, Kate may suffocate those two.
What a way to go!
I like Cole or Verlander. But I agree some mention should go to Bieber, Lynn, Morton, and Giolito.
1. Verlander
2. Cole
3. Bieber
4. Morton
5. Minor
6. Giolito
7. Lynn
GEE-OH-LEE-TOW
Houston has got some amazing pitching. I like Verlander to win it with Cole finishing second. Verlander seems headed for the HOF when he retires and Cole for a big free agent pay day this off season. Im a Mariners fan, but love all good baseball. Can’t wait for the playoffs, hoping for a Yankees vs Astros barnburner somewhere along the line!
Makes me pleasantly reminded how savage The Big Unit really was.
Remember that bird? RIP
What do you mean RIP? Randy Johnson is alive and well — in fact I just saw him last month at the Little League World Series — he was grand marshal of the opening parade..
Or were you changing subjects midstream and talking about Mark Fidrych? The bird, not “that bird”.
Randy Johnson once nailed a bird mid-flight at home plate with a fastball, and “that bird” seemingly exploded.
Verlander- still the guy I trust more and with stats virtually even, that’s my deciding factor. Gimme the OLD DOMINION great
Agree it’s a two-man race (and not sure which of the two wins it) but Cole is third (not second) in Wins – Domingo German has 18. And I think German gets enough votes to crack the top 5.
Can someone seriously explain how Verlander’s fWar is 1.7 lower than bWar, but Cole’s went up .5 on fWar?
They use different components to calculate bWAR and fWAR. bWAR uses runs against and fWAR uses FIP. Another way to think about it is bWAR is better at tells you what happened,
Thank you, does that “tells you what happened” calculation applied to bWar for hitters as well?
I think it’s pretty clearly Verlander at this point but honestly it could 100% come down to each of these guys final 2 (maybe 3?) starts. If Cole goes 2-0 and Verlander gets stuck at 19 W — as silly as it might actually be… Cole getting to 20 and Verlander not could seal the deal. Or conversely if Verlander gets 20+ W and Cole doesn’t I think he runs away with it. It’s a tough call as they are so clearly almost identical statistically — however Verlander has Cole beat in just about every major category except for K’s so while all of his categorical leads are virtually insignificant (#’s wise I mean — basically they’re close to tied in almost everything) just the fact that Verlander’s got him beat means ‘the tie’ goes to him. So barring a change over their next 2/3 starts I think it’ll be Verlander.
Would’ve been nice to see what Clevinger would’ve done healthy and a somewhat healthy lineup around him this year.