It was June 11 that I wrote a piece titled “Howie Kendrick Is Killing The Ball.” At that point in 2019, the veteran National had quietly been one of the majors’ most effective hitters of the season. Kendrick was then the proud owner of a .333/.376/.604 line with a 149 wRC+ in 178 plate appearances, and though there may have been skepticism in regards to the 36-year-old’s early season excellence, he hasn’t let up over the past two months. The fact that Kendrick hasn’t slowed down has helped Washington rebound from a forgettable start to become the favorite to take the top wild-card spot in the National League.
Although the Nationals lost to the Cardinals on Wednesday, they’re still a game up on the league’s fourth seed. And Kendrick contributed even in defeat, chipping in a pair of hits in four at-bats and raising his season line to .343/.393/.577 through 346 PA. Among hitters who have walked to the plate 300-plus times this year, the infielder ranks second in average, 13th in on-base percentage and 15th in slugging percentage. His wRC+, 146, ties him with teammate/superstar Juan Soto for 13th in the league and also places him among the likes of Mets NL Rookie of the Year favorite Pete Alonso and Braves standout Freddie Freeman.
Kendrick’s current production is especially surprising coming from someone who has been closer to an average offensive player than an elite one throughout his career. That’s not to say the former Angel, Dodger and Phillie hasn’t been a useful player since he debuted in 2006 – he has, evidenced in part by his 32.5 rWAR/31.1 fWAR – but Kendrick has clearly found another gear this season.
As was the case a couple months ago, Kendrick’s 2019 output doesn’t look like a fluke. On the contrary, he has continued to make more damaging contact than just about every hitter in the game. Kendrick’s .424 expected weighted on-base average is tied for third in the sport with Astros Rookie of the Year-to-be Yordan Alvarez. The only players better in that category have been the Angels’ Mike Trout and the Dodgers’ Cody Bellinger, two serious MVP candidates. Kendrick has been similarly tremendous in other key Statcast categories, as he sits in baseball’s 94th percentile in average exit velocity (92.2 mph), its 97th percentile in hard-hit rate (50.2 percent), its 99th percentile in expected slugging percentage (.608) and its 100th percentile in expected batting average (.330). Can’t argue with that.
So why the newfound dominance from a player who entered the year as a lifetime .291/.334/.422 hitter? An increased emphasis on power has been key. The right-handed Kendrick has hit more fly balls and gone to left field more than at just about any other point since he came into the majors. Those factors have helped produce 16 home runs, Kendrick’s second-highest total, and a personal-best .234 ISO that’s almost 100 points above his career mark of .137. And Kendrick hasn’t sold out for his uptick in power by striking out more. Instead, he has fanned in a career-low 13.7 percent of plate appearances, swung and missed a personal-best 7.3 percent of the time and posted a matching walk percentage of 7.3. For reference, Kendrick came into 2019 with strikeout, swinging-strike and walk rates of 17.4, 9.8 and 5.3, respectively.
If there’s one way to attempt to pooh-pooh Kendrick’s numbers, it’s by citing his sky-high batting average on balls in play. On paper, it would be difficult to count on Kendrick replicating his .357 mark in that department in future years – especially considering the former stolen base threat lacks speed nowadays. That said, Kendrick has been known for running unsustainable-looking BABIPs throughout his career (.341 lifetime), so it would seem unwise to expect the mark to dramatically plummet going forward.
With just under two weeks left in the regular season, it’s apparent Kendrick is going to wrap up the campaign with pristine production. Whenever it does end for the potentially playoff-bound Nationals, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them make an earnest effort to keep Kendrick in the fold heading into 2020. The free agent-to-be is just a year removed from suffering a catastrophic injury – a ruptured right Achilles – but Kendrick now looks better than ever. Even though he’s an aging player in a game that’s becoming increasingly younger, Kendrick shouldn’t have difficulty finding a guaranteed contract beyond this season.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Connor, need a player link my man
Added. Thanks for the heads up.
A little unusual for a guy his age having a career year, but it’s happened.
“Kendrick was then the proud owner of a .333/.376/.604 line with a 149 wRC+ in 342 plate appearances”
So Kendrick had 342 PA on June 11 huh?
And interesting choice to write an article about a player and then not link to his -reference anywhere in the article.
It is linked now. It didn’t do so automatically at first because the link to the prior article was in the way (just a reminder that we don’t manually link the players’ names). And I obviously made an error on the PA total, which is now fixed. Thanks.
Usually you guys say “so and so has a such and such batting average on balls in play and that’s just unable to maintain.” Well, sometimes they do maintain it. Maybe not for 20 years, but for a season, yes. Some guys have a fantastic year every now and again.
Generally said when the BABIP is completely otherworldly. Such that it’s clearly an outlier compared to the career norm and it’s not supported by other changes. Kendrick is legitimately not doing this solely on BABIP luck that is unsustainable. He has clearly started to hit the ball harder than ever before, these last two seasons, while also limiting his soft contact and making drastic changes to his medium contact. Maybe we should respect that a little bit more, than criticism concerning previous articles laying out discrepancies in a somewhat unsustainable unexplained occurrence.
Howie is older and can’t start 140-160 games a year anymore.
Starting him 3-4 times a week with some pinch-hitting thrown in has kept him strong and focused.
_
Statistics are what has happened. They are not WHY what happened. To know that one must follow the team/players and watch the games….
When the Twins hire a new pitching coach and suddenly most of the pitching pitching staff gets good, then the coach is a variable that is not noted in the individual players statistics. When the ball is juiced in 2019 and HR’s are flying out all over the place (as well as singles and line outs turning into doubles and triples), then players SLG and OPS go up across the board. Comparing their stats to their previous years stats and thinking they somehow improved is a bogus conclusion.
That’s an absurd comment. Like sure maybe the ball has changed a tad bit and helped Kendrick slightly… but the ball is the same for every hitter in baseball and not every hitter is having, arguably their best season by a long shot at the age of 35. So dismissing everything he’s accomplished this season because the “baseball is juiced” is just an absurd claim
Sure, although we’re not discussing the same thing. The underlying reason why is the discussion which has nothing much to do with the ball. We can lament the juiced ball, and the rise in counting numbers as a result, but that’s not the main premise here. I can also clearly point out that they were never a part of the discussion. The ball may fly with the seams, but it’s not changing the exit velo and quality of contact. This isn’t just a one year sample either. He made a swing adjustment last season and also bettered where he was from last season. So yes what you said has merit if you are solely scouting the stat line without attempting to understand why.
Jeff Zanghi;
lol
I have no idea at all how you came to the conclusions you came to over what I wrote.
On June 11, “Kendrick was then the proud owner of a .333/.376/.604 line with a 149 wRC+ in 342 plate appearances”
After today, September 18, “And Kendrick contributed even in defeat, chipping in a pair of hits in four at-bats and raising his season line to .343/.393/.577 through 346 PA.”
So, in 3 months, he has had 4 plate appearances, raised his OBP by 17 points and lowered his slugging % by 27 points. Remarkable he could do that in just 4 plate appearances.
It’s been fixed, as noted above. Move on
I don’t really know why, but I’ve always been a Howie Kendrick fan. He hasn’t ever played for a team that I even sort of like.
If you need a reason, it’s because he’s one of the most consistent producers in the game. Look back over his long career and you see someone who has never had a bad season, and a whole lot of really good ones. A total ballplayer and always underrated.
The Nationals season started going downhill 2-3 weeks ago when Ryan Zimmerman returned. He’s been a drain on the team for years when he’s healthy.
The Nats were rolling with Dozier, Adams, and Kendrick splitting 1B and 2B (Howie plays both positions). Then they brought in Asdubal and Zimmerman, and gave them the jobs. In the process not only upsetting team chemistry (the best record in the NL for over 3 months), but they benched their best hitter in Kendrick. That’s when the magic left. The last 2 games they’re playing Howie…..and he’s hitting……but it’s too late.
Benching a .320-some hitter to play a .240-some hitter is why the National come close every year, but never close the sale. They needed relief pitching – not fooling around with an explosive offense. They got a couple of relief pitchers at the deadline that are MEH. I don’t know if it’s Rizzo and his staff or ownership, but this happens every single year.
Never understood why the Dodgers moved on from him…. and then shuffled second basemen in & out ever since then.
Yup. My only theory is Kendrick really only plays 2B and the Dodgers are big on flexibility. They had him play quite a bit of LF but in the end they didn’t see that as being flexible enough and instead went for the revolving door at 2B. That seems shortsighted. The Dodgers could very well see a lot of Kendrick in the postseason.