The Red Sox are preparing to offer Rafael Devers a long-term contract this winter, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reports. In general, most extensions aren’t discussed and/or completed until after the bulk of other offseason business has been completed, so more concrete news on this front might not surface until closer to Spring Training.
It only makes sense that the Sox would look to gain some cost certainty over a player who has emerged as a huge force in 2019. Devers has hit .308/.359/.553 with 32 homers over 697 plate appearances, with a 131 wRC+ that ranks 13th among all qualified batters in baseball. There have been questions about Devers’ ability to stick as a third baseman, though he at least held his own defensively depending on the metric; he had a +3 UZR/150, though a minus-6 in Defensive Runs Saved.
Long considered one of the game’s top prospects, Devers had a nice debut in 2017 before struggling in his first full MLB season in 2018, yet now he looks firmly established as a fixture in Boston’s lineup. To that end, Devers is already under team control through the 2023 season, and he won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2020 campaign. The Sox will surely look to lock up at least two or three of his free agent seasons in any extension, though it would come at a high price. Devers will only be 27 years old on Opening Day 2024, and that relatively early entry into free agency will definitely raise his price tag on the open market (assuming he keeps up his current form, of course).
Last spring saw an unprecedented burst of extensions around the game, as a wide variety of players chose financial security over the uncertainty of an increasingly tight free agent market and the potential for labor strife when the current collective bargaining agreement expires following the 2021 season. It’s possible Devers could follow suit, as he hasn’t banked an overt amount of money in his career (minimum salaries and his original $1.5MM international signing bonus) and might want to guarantee himself that proverbial “first fortune.” Devers is represented by Rep 1 Baseball, who had another high-profile client in Luis Severino ink an extension with the Yankees last February.
Alex Bregman also signed a five-year, $100MM extension with the Astros back in March, which Bradford suggests could be a model for a Devers contract. Bregman had hit .282./366/.500 with 58 homers over 1548 PA and 361 games at the time of his deal, while Devers has a .281/.335/.501 career mark with 63 homers through 1422 PA and 333 games. However, Bregman is also over 2.5 years older than Devers, and wouldn’t have hit free agency until after his age-28 season. Bregman is also a more defensively adept player that the Astros can count on to continue as a third baseman for years to come, whereas the Red Sox could still have an eye towards eventually shifting Devers over to first base down the road.
Perhaps the better way to view Bregman’s extension as a comp for Devers is in the specific terms of the agreement. Bregman’s extension doesn’t actually begin until the 2020 season (covering his three arbitration years and first two free agent years), and thus the luxury tax hit associated with the deal doesn’t apply until next year. Had Bregman’s 2019 season also been factored into the contract, it would’ve given him a luxury tax number of roughly $16.66MM, and left Houston with little wiggle room to stay under the $206MM luxury tax threshold. Exceeding that threshold for one year in search of a World Series title might not have been a big deal for the Astros, though with Bregman still on a minimum salary, Houston is still projected to avoid any tax payments even after making a big deadline splash by acquiring Zack Greinke.
As it relates to Devers, one would think the Sox would explore a similar extension, one that wouldn’t begin until 2021 (his first arbitration-eligible year). This would be a huge boost to the club in its goal to get under the luxury tax threshold this winter, since ducking under the $208MM limit and maintaining a competitive roster would be much more difficult if Devers suddenly had a $15-$20MM average annual value attached to his services.
Smart move with Devers!
Not a smart move after what could be a career year. Why not wait? See if he can back it up.
Because he’ll probably jump at the first big offer they give him since he’s young
Exactly. No rush to sign Devers now. Let’s see how he follows up 2019 first.
You could have a Porcello 5 year stint or you could have a Paul Goldschmidt 5 year stint. Its a risk but I guess the team rather pay 100 million and be wrong than 300 million and be right.
He is 2.5 years younger than Bregman so he has to be mindful of becoming a FA in his thirties. I would make sure if I was him to become a FA at 28yo on a similar value as Bregman. If the Rsox wants to cover all of his 20’s the value has to be higher than the Bregman’s deal.
Gotta extend Devers. As for Betts, trade him for White Sox prospects Michael Kopech and Nick Madrigal. That’s a great deal for a one year rental.
White Sox say no, not because it’s a bad deal, but because the White Sox are stupid.
WSox have no use for an expensive 1yr rental, let alone parting with 2 blue chips that each have many years of control.
Why would the White Sox be stupid for declining that lol they’d be stupid to accept it.
What’s the incentive for the white Sox to do that? Why would a rebuilding team want to take on a 25-30mil salary for a guy whom likely will only be around for 1 year (least we forget the white Sox have never signed a player for above 70 mil) for 2 very good prospects? Just because it works for the Red Sox (maybe) doesn’t mean it work for the other team. Smh
Don’t try to use logic when it comes to Red Sox fans and trades. This is a fan base that said that Henry Owens would be an overpay in a Cole Hamels trade several years ago.
wow, didnt remember that one. glad it never came to fruition.
That would be a lousy deal for the White Sox
Forget Madrigal, make it Moncada and now you’re talking
$30mil?
1yr rental?
Lose out on 2 controllable players on a team that has not yet reached positive wins?
I would pass.
Kopech and Madrigal are too much to give for Betts. I don’t see the point when they aren’t contending.
Mass confusion. Preparing a long-term extension offer without even having a general manager in the chair. Yesterday they announced the fire sale and today comes the long term extension rumors. This franchise is lost
It was a generalized story. Will take time to get it done if he’s interested. No mass confusion here other than inside your head.
Why don’t you just come out and say you hate the Red Sox? I don’t think anything they do would please you. Your blue jays suck by the way.
So you insult the team he’s a fan of as a means of calling him out for hating the Sox? lol ok
Tired of him hating on Red Sox week after week.
Just a shot across the bow is all… no biggie.
A shot across the bow? HA! Goof.
It negates everything you said and validates what he says but you go ahead with your “shot across the bow”. Smh
My goal is to now make sure that you’re happy with my posts. Let me get started on that right away.
No no continue with your shots across the bow, it makes you look so smart and respectful, you are an ambassador to the Sox.
The Red Sox have no idea I even exist. So glad I spend so much time following and reading and posting about them.
Fire sale? Just because they want to get under the luxury tax threshold? Even if they do trade Mookie, that still wouldn’t make it a “fire sale”.
As for Devers, hard to say if a longterm extension this winter is the right move. I’d like to see him put together consecutive good seasons first. His work ethic is lacking, his defense is abysmal, and his baserunning is atrocious. But we can overlook all that if he puts up another +900 OPS next season.
Devers extension only makes sense if JDM opts out and leaves. Devers has future DH written all over him. Nothing against the guy but rotund body types don’t usually have long careers at 3B.
Even if Devers loses more weight, he still won’t be a good defensive 3B. I think he could play 1B at some point in the future though.
Agree to both above comments but team could reacting/overreacting to the current Betts situation. I’d love to see another year given the ball this year. That said his defense improved. Sort of reminds me of Boggs at the beginning. An extension depends on cost.
Sorry, I wasn’t referring to your last comment on his defense obviously. Boggs was horrible and learned the position at the MLB level. Biggest negative on Devers is his spitting. Impossible for the camera to not get it and it does get disgusting.
You know zero. He has an amazing work ethic. Wants to be the best.
I think they’re operating like the Indians did at one time, extending a good young player, n yes it makes sense. I think his defense has improved greatly, he has a rifle arm, I’ll be happy if they sign him up so he doesn’t start tapping about FA like Mookie does every second he can.
Yapping, not tapping, lol.
I know, It must really stink to be a Red Sox fan…all those recent WS titles and all.
Posts like these make me wish downvotes were still a thing
The man can play the game.
If I’m the sox I’d do a fire sale. Rebuild they just have too many bad contracts. Trade everyone with value get a major haul and start all over
So we’d want to buy out 3 arbitration years and 3 FA years, I think. That would make him an FA at 30, young enough that he could get another big contract. One thing he’s got working against him a little bit is that he’s not a defensive stud like Mookie or Trout.
This is off the top of my head
895k 2020 (what I think he’ll get)
9M 2021
17M 2022
23.5M 2023
27.5 M 2024 (what I think he could get)
27.5M 2025
27.5M 2026
That comes to 6 years, 132M. That seems reasonable to me, It’s close to Bogaerts money, but Raffy is four years younger. So you’ve got the age difference, but also the fact that Xander is getting 5-6 FA years bought out, whereas Devers would only be getting 3. I think the Red Sox’s offer will be lower than this… probably in the 6yr/100M range.
If I’m Devers, I pay close attention to what happens with Mookie Betts this offseason, and if their offer is to my liking based on that and its value, I sign it in spring training.
If I’m Devers or his agent there is no way I sign any contract that locks me up into my 30s. If he has any confidence in his ability to play long-term he certainly wants to hit FA in his 20’s and secure 1 huge pay day.
It seems like it would be a good idea to see how Devers does next year before committing to an extension. What we’ve seen is a one-year breakout so far. How about another before going all Sale on him?
The solution to cutting Boston payroll could be to unload David Price for whatever you could get for him.
If I were Devers I wouldn’t sign anything. Stick it out and get paid don’t help this team by giving them any type of discount. Devers needs to take a page out of Mookie’s book and wait, he’ll get paid. I hated Acuna’s contract for this exact reason. One of the best ten players in baseball getting paid like he’s average to good and the same will go for Devers.
In my mind, there’s nothing wrong with an extension on Dever’s end as long as it ends at a good time for him to hit FA again. He can earn some money faster than he would be able to on a standard progression and still have value when he hits FA.
If the Sox are looking to lock him up until he’s older, say 32 years old for example, then he’s an idiot if he signs it.