We’ve seen quite a bit of news on the Athletics since their season ended with Wednesday’s wild-card loss to the Rays. Here’s even more on the A’s, courtesy of Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (links here):
- It’s “likely” the Athletics will non-tender or trade right-handed reliever Blake Treinen, according to Slusser, who also names second baseman Jurickson Profar as someone who’s in danger of winding up on the outs. Just a year ago at this time, Treinen was coming off perhaps one of the greatest seasons a reliever has ever posted. It would have unthinkable then that the A’s would be considering cutting the cord on him 12 months later, but it’s now understandable in light of his rough 2019. Injuries limited Treinen to 58 2/3 innings, and his numbers declined across the board when he was able to take the mound. Treinen recorded a 4.91 ERA/5.14 FIP with 9.05 K/9 and 5.68 BB/9 before his season ended in mid-September because of a stress reaction in his back. Although Treinen lost his job as the A’s closer this year, the saves he has amassed will help him in the arbitration process, where he’d be in line to collect a raise over the $6.4MM he earned in 2019. But the low-budget A’s could simply choose to walk away from the 31-year-old after his nightmarish campaign.
- Profar, like Treinen, entered the season as a player the A’s were counting on to successfully fill a big role. After acquiring the switch-hitter from the Rangers last winter, Oakland gave Profar ample opportunity to build on a career-best 2018 this season. Instead, Profar stumbled to an uninspiring .218/.301/.410 batting line in 518 plate appearances and earned negative grades at the keystone (minus-10 DRS, minus-1 UZR). The 26-year-old, who made $3.6MM in ’19, has one more season of arbitration eligibility remaining.
- The Athletics may have too many starters lined up for 2020 to justify re-signing pending free-agent left-hander Brett Anderson. The same likely goes for fellow soon-to-be FA starters Homer Bailey and Tanner Roark, Slusser suggests. The A’s acquired both righties over the summer, and the team ended up receiving surprisingly decent production from Bailey after years of struggles with multiple franchises. The 33-year-old Bailey, who told Slusser he “really enjoyed” his stint as an Athletic, pitched to a 4.30 ERA with 8.3 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 across 73 1/3 innings in their uniform. Roark managed similar numbers in his 55 frames as a member of the club, with which he notched a 4.58 ERA and put up 8.2 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9.
- Lefty reliever Jake Diekman, yet another in-season trade pickup, could also depart in the next several weeks. However, the A’s at least figure to discuss retaining him, Slusser relays. He has a $5.75MM mutual option (or a $500K buyout) for next season. Diekman struggled mightily with his control as an Athletic this year, though, as he issued 16 walks, allowed 16 hits and yielded 10 earned runs in a 20 1/3-inning sample.
- This was a stunningly poor season for designated hitter Khris Davis, whom the team signed to a two-year, $33.5MM extension in April. At that point, Davis was coming off three consecutive 40-home run seasons and a remarkable four straight in which he batted .247. Both streaks came to an end this year, in which Davis hit .220/.293/.387 with 23 HRs in 533 trips to the plate as he dealt with injuries. But Davis “wasn’t injured at the end of the year,” said manager Bob Melvin, who expects a bounce-back performance from the slugger in 2020. Executive vice president Billy Beane shares Melvin’s optimism, saying he looks for a return to Davis’ “annual 40 homers, .247” next year.
it would be a bad move to just non-tender treinen, he would definitely have a lot of interest from his 2018 season
No question lots of teams will have interest
the A’s are not going to give Treinen $9-10 million for one season in hopes that he has a miraculous bounce back…Chris Bassit could easily fill his role at a fraction of the cost.
It would be stupid as hell, Treinen was clearly hurt and could easily bounce back.
Also, is no one going to bring up Profar’s .218 BABIP this year? No one was less lucky than him, and while it’s true he’s a 1B/LF going forward and needs to be kept far away from 2B/SS, he’s possibly a plus-1B/LF if we kept playing the season to get that BABIP to stabilize to normal levels. Profar’s career avg is .262 and that’s low, but .218 is ridiculous.
I could see the A’s move Piscotty back to STL, or even to SF or a CA team. Gotta clear RF for Mookie 🙂
Profar’s D is putrid no matter how much bad luck he endured. Seems like a nice kid but he’s gotta go.
Could that BABIP be indicative that he just doesn’t hit the ball hard?
It just goes to show that it’s better to owe Kris Davis $17M for one more year of potential failure than Miguel Cabrera $124M for the next 4 years and that’s why Dombrowski is gone in Detroit and Boston.
How many times do we see relievers have a mediocre career, turn it on and then become the next best thing and sign only to regress? Then clubs act surprised it happens.
I don’t know how you couldn’t be surprised with Treinen. This guy was extremely good at generating ground balls his entire career. Would I have believed he regressed back to the slightly above average reliever he was in Washington? The guy who still generated a ton of GB’s…. Sure, I would’ve.
But for a guy like that to not be able to generate GB’s and suddenly more than double his HR rate; im not quite sure how you couldn’t be surprised.
Yeah. R.A. Dickey comes to mind. Mark Melancon. A few others like that. Mediocre career players who have an amazing run just in time for a fat free agent contract that immediately becomes an albatross whose high light is the coverage of the contract signing and the epitaph after the player retires filthy rich but irrelevant and with a broken spirit at least within the game itself.
Mark Melancon had 4 great seasons in a row, basically his entire time in Pittsburgh so you probably need to check your facts.
You’re right. I messed up on that one. I knew Melancon as a journeyman and I knew he signed his deal in SF and I knew SF was notorious for their bloated extensions and FA deals and every time he pitched in relief, particularly with his ERA at the time, the announcers referenced his massive salary and contract and that he was having issues and they never really talked at length about his history pre-FA contract, so I unrightfully assumed his numbers weren’t that impressive overall but SF had seen some outlier statistic about him they loved or he’d had an amazing run leading up to FA that landed him a bloated contract from a club willing to shell out for the splashy signing.
But I was wrong. He earned his contract. He earned a potentially larger contract than the one he received, based on the four previous seasons. I’m impressed and my opinion on his career has changed entirely.
Last thing I’ll say is, it is pretty astounding how quiet great careers can be if they’re largely with much smaller market out of contention clubs like the Pirates.
I want Mike Elias to spend money on one player this offseason and that’s Blake Treinen. If you can fix him that’s the best cost effective trade asset you can pick up. You get him throwing ground balls again and pitching in OPACY won’t be a problem.
jb, Blake lost it before the season ended last year. He started giving up homers like crazy, including that wild card game last year. The starters look great for next year, but they should keep Bailey or Anderson, hopefully Bailey. He was quite good here, overall.
Both Treinen and Profar need to be non tendered. Save the money for A top SP and tons of proven bullpen help. A’s need to trade Pinder and Barreto and let Mateo and Neuse battle it out for the 2nd base/utility role.
The A’s are not signing a top starter
Neuse is nothing special and Mateo can’t hit. Barreto will start at second. I think the A’s biggest need is a big bat to hit behind Davis and play left field.
You haven’t seen enough of any of those guys to be making these kinds of statements. They’re still young and developing. Beware of impatience, Max Muncy and Josh Donaldson were given up on, only to break out later. You can’t say that categorically cannot happen with Mateo, Barreto and Neuse. You understand the game is all about adjustments, right? JD Martinez went from ultra scrub to absolute monster, and so can anyone.
With Manea, Luzardo, Puk, Fiers that’s a great start to the rotation. I would give Mateo a shot at 2B, great year at AAA. Barretto hasn’t done anything at the mlb level.
you forgot Montas
Their rotation and position players will be cheap. The older rlievers and davis/piscotty are their only big contracts. Theres no reason for them to save money other thann the revenue sharing money being cut and phased out
rathman, Profar was very clutch for the A”s. He helped win many games with homers, and had the most hits in the wild card game. I predict he will only get better, similar to Semien. We have to have guys who perform in the clutch, unlike Davis, who sadly shrinks in the biggest moments. Teams will never win it all, without real clutch players.
Save the money for the one big “go for it” year of Mookie Betts.
A’s Billy Beane and co have bigger problems than retaining – or not – Blake Treinen. Marcus Semien’s contract is up in 2020 and he won’t be cheap either not to mention extensions for Chapman and Olson. BTW. Franklin Barreto is up at second.
This has been debunked, Semien will most likely get a QO at the end of 2020 and it will probably be around $20M, and if he accepts, he will be hitting the FA market at age 31, which is now “too old” to give a position player a huge deal. A’s could just issue the QO then offer him like 3/45 or something feasible.
If Semien remotely keeps this up next year, he will get way more than 3/45, even though he will be 31. 4/75 would look like the floor for his contract.
I kinda love Billy Beane’s quote about Khris Davis. Reminds us it’s truly a game first and foremost. It’s a business when push comes to shove, but day to day, moment to moment, in the collective consciousness, it is a game. Games have weird internal logic to them that often goes against empirical logic- the way some guys who are below replacement levels of productivity and defensive abilities still get signed and start because of their ‘club house presence’ or a guy gets a big fat contract extension from their team due to heroics or just tenure and not necessarily what the market would bare on its own terms- The most egregious example of this, in my mind, being Brandon Belt’s 5 year/$72.8M deal with the Giants when he’s not worth that in the FA market, not by a long shot.
Anyway I think it’s hilarious and sweet that everybody kinda wanted Davis to hit .247 with 40 home runs. 44 HR’s 112 RBI’s and a .247 average in 151 games was his true average over the last 3 seasons before 2019. Assuming he maintained the .223 average, had he played in 151 games this season, Davis was pacing for 28 HR’s and 89 RBI’s.
I hope he does hit .247 with 44 HR’s and 112 RBI’s in 151 games in 2020. That’d be amazing.
Brandon Belt deal most egregious?? What are you even talking about man. Since he signed that deal, he’s had WARs of 4.6, 2.9, 2.7. Deal might be slightly underwater at this point, but he’s played well through most of it and no one expected the free agent market to crater at that time. Go talk to an Orioles fan about Chris Davis bud.
Brandon Belt… Lol
I’d take Treinen in a heart beat.
The A’s surely have significant depth moving forward in terms of starting pitchers, so letting Anderson, Bailey and Roark walk wouldn’t be ill-advised. However, letting all three of them depart should be countered with a signing of a higher quality arm. Of course Oakand’s not going to be in the running for Cole, or Bumgarner, but maybe it’d be worth pursuing the likes of Odorizzi, Wheeler, or even Ryu–depending on the contract length he’s looking for.
Wheeler should be getting around the same deal Bumgarner gets. Ryu due to age and injury history is probably a 3/60 kind of guy. Don’t know if the A’s will pay that given the fact that they have Manaea, Puk, Luzardo, Montas and Fiers already.
I don’t really like Odorizzi but lesser arms have had significant success in Oakland. To be honest with you though if they aren’t going to pay for Wheeler or possibly Ryu, I’d probably resign Bailey and keep the guys they have.
I think Bumgarner ends up getting quite a bit more than Wheeler, but maybe just in terms of contract length–his track record is noticeably better than Wheeler’s when comparing both pitchers. Plus, Bumgarner’s postseason numbers/experience give him at least slightly more intrigue.
At this point, Wheeler definitely has the better stuff of the two, and possibly more upside, but his minimal track record should keep his price down to a more palatable level.
Onto Odorizzi–yeah, I’m not super high on him either (strong peripherals do make his 2019 look somewhat repeatable though), but I would prefer him over any of the 3 mentioned at the right price. And as for Ryu–it’ll be interesting to see how much his injury history/age effects his market–he likely only becomes an A’s target if his market takes a tumble.
All in all, I like the upside of the A’s rotation heading into 2019, so I’m excited to see what unfolds this off-season!
Dakota, I would keep at least one of those guys, perhaps two because starters do get injured. Use them in the pen until a starter goes down. Preferably Bailey, then Anderson.
Absolutely–depth is extremely important when it comes to pitching! So it never hurts to have excess.
However, with Fiers, Manaea, Montas, Bassitt, Puk, Luzardo, Cotton (if he’s still viewed as a starter), Blackburn, Gossett (making his way back from TJ), Mengden, as well as Holmes and Kaprielian–even though the latter have yet to debut–all on the 40-man as of today, if there’s anything the A’s have, it’s rotational depth.
But of course a lot can and will happen between now and opening day–whether it be trades, releases, general roster maneuvering, injuries, etc.
We’ll have a clearer idea of what approach the A’s are going to take once the WS concludes.
The last few seasons have proven that Beane has uncovered a way to pinpoint excellent relievers. I used to trust the A’s implicitly with locating junk shop starters worth kicking the tires on but they’ve really done well nailing down bullpen arms, with a few obvious gascan exceptions.
I think it’s best to cut ties with Treinen (seemed like a head case this year).
Prior to last year, the A’s picked up Rodney’s option, traded for Profar, signed Soria and Estrada. That was a waste of nearly $15M, especially considering how little they spend. Now they are going to have discussions about retaining Diekman for nearly $6M. What are they thinking, he was terrible. I normally support the front office but this is ridiculous.